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Quotable Value says average dwelling values still well up on a year ago but the growth rate is starting to tail off

Quotable Value says average dwelling values still well up on a year ago but the growth rate is starting to tail off

Quotable Value sees housing values starting to flatten throughout New Zealand, with average values starting to decline in some regions.

The average values of homes throughout the country was $739,151 in July, up 7.5% compared to a year earlier, but up only 0.4% over the previous three months.

In Auckland the average value of homes was $1,077,237 which was up 5.1% compared to July last year, but down 0.2% compared to three months earlier.

Within the Auckland region, average value changes were mixed, with rises on the northern and southern ends of the city and falls on the North Shore and central Auckland (see table below).

Values were mostly also weaker at the bottom of the South Island, with values in Queenstown-Lakes declining by 4.2% over the three months to July.

"The QV house price data continues to reflect a gradual decline in quarterly growth in July, with the vast majority of the big towns we monitor showing a reduction in the rate of growth since June," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"There has been plenty of hype around demand and we're still seeing well attended auctions and open homes, especially for the more affordable housing stock.

"This has resulted in strong transaction numbers in the past few weeks leaving limited stock.

"But there's also a lot of properties that aren't selling as buyers exercise both caution and patience as they search for a suitable property," Nagel said.

See the table below for average property values throughout the country.

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  QV Housing Value Index - July 2020
  Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change % 3 month change %
  Auckland Region $1,077,237 5.1% -0.2%
  Main Urban Areas $844,496 6.9% 0.2%
  Wellington Region $788,804 10.7% 0.4%
  Total NZ $739,151 7.5% 0.4%
         
  Far North $488,055 5.5% 0.1%
  Whangarei $578,488 5.6% 0.6%
  Kaipara $604,073 9.0% 3.9%
  Auckland - Rodney $987,639 5.3% 0.4%
  Rodney - Hibiscus Coast $962,734 4.9% 0.3%
  Rodney - North $1,012,172 5.6% 0.5%
  Auckland - North Shore $1,240,917 5.9% -0.7%
  North Shore - Coastal $1,407,795 5.3% -1.4%
  North Shore - North Harbour $1,208,350 5.5% -0.1%
  North Shore - Onewa $1,011,821 7.6% 0.1%
  Auckland - Waitakere $857,302 5.9% 1.3%
  Auckland - City $1,260,285 4.2% -1.5%
  Auckland City - Central $1,098,329 4.7% -2.2%
  Auckland City - Islands $1,136,301 2.1% -1.5%
  Auckland City - South $1,133,417 5.5% -0.6%
  Auckland_City - East $1,581,159 2.9% -1.8%
  Auckland - Manukau $945,659 6.4% 1.8%
  Manukau - Central $728,942 6.2% 1.4%
  Manukau - East $1,209,430 6.8% 1.8%
  Manukau - North West $826,654 6.4% 1.7%
  Auckland - Papakura $729,099 3.9% 0.6%
  Auckland - Franklin $704,341 4.6% 1.5%
  Thames Coromandel $809,281 7.1% -1.3%
  Hauraki $458,513 8.8% -2.3%
  Waikato $535,435 9.8% 2.3%
  Matamata Piako $527,194 7.4% 4.2%
  Hamilton $635,289 8.6% 0.9%
  Hamilton - Central & North West $591,984 10.1% 0.6%
  Hamilton - North East $774,455 5.9% 0.0%
  Hamilton - South East $593,683 10.3% 2.1%
  Hamilton - South West $570,837 9.1% 1.1%
  Waipa $646,980 9.9% -0.1%
  South Waikato $321,517 25.2% 4.8%
  Waitomo $257,736 16.7% 4.2%
  Taupo $572,029 9.4% 1.5%
  Western BOP $699,186 3.8% -1.4%
  Tauranga $794,004 7.5% 2.5%
  Rotorua $537,212 13.9% 6.7%
  Whakatane $526,461 10.3% 2.1%
  Kawerau $289,449 10.8% -0.6%
  Opotiki $366,291 14.7% -2.4%
  Gisborne $436,520 20.1% 0.4%
  Wairoa $238,276 12.6% -7.2%
  Hastings $593,471 13.4% 0.9%
  Napier $618,867 11.6% 1.5%
  Central Hawke's Bay $437,523 16.0% 8.7%
  New Plymouth $513,802 10.3% 0.7%
  Stratford $350,626 21.9% 6.1%
  South Taranaki $289,871 18.2% 1.5%
  Ruapehu $281,031 23.6% 12.4%
  Whanganui $371,577 20.6% 1.0%
  Rangitikei $314,955 31.4% 10.2%
  Manawatu $470,276 17.9% 1.4%
  Palmerston North $515,832 14.8% 1.7%
  Tararua $297,730 22.2% 9.0%
  Horowhenua $443,891 18.5% 0.6%
  Kapiti Coast $674,962 11.7% 1.5%
  Porirua $696,516 12.2% 0.8%
  Upper Hutt $644,816 13.6% 2.4%
  Hutt $686,773 15.4% 0.6%
  Wellington $895,084 8.2% 0.0%
  Wellington - Central & South $886,537 8.7% 0.6%
  Wellington - East $950,439 7.3% -1.4%
  Wellington - North $823,986 8.2% 0.3%
  Wellington - West $1,011,852 8.2% -1.1%
  Masterton $444,998 14.3% 4.3%
  Carterton $483,968 11.5% 1.1%
  South Wairarapa $582,213 10.2% -0.8%
  Tasman $645,722 6.0% 1.5%
  Nelson $662,839 6.4% 0.5%
  Marlborough $519,704 7.2% 0.7%
  Buller $206,746 5.0% -3.4%
  Grey $243,731 10.4% 5.7%
  Westland $286,968 13.3% 6.9%
  Hurunui $406,267 2.8% -0.8%
  Waimakariri $465,288 3.3% 0.6%
  Christchurch $519,233 4.3% 0.5%
  Christchurch - Banks Peninsula $540,548 3.7% -2.7%
  Christchurch - Central & North $608,540 3.7% 0.9%
  Christchurch - East $392,520 4.0% 0.1%
  Christchurch - Hills $708,724 5.1% 0.1%
  Christchurch - Southwest $493,973 4.6% 0.5%
  Selwyn $567,844 1.6% 0.6%
  Ashburton $385,126 7.6% 3.3%
  Timaru $391,900 6.6% 1.3%
  MacKenzie $597,366 15.8% -0.7%
  Waimate $283,375 1.5% -2.4%
  Waitaki $361,100 12.6% -0.1%
  Central Otago $590,518 8.4% -0.5%
  Queenstown Lakes $1,165,187 -0.9% -4.2%
  Dunedin $550,820 20.0% -0.3%
  Dunedin - Central & North $563,910 19.3% -0.5%
  Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal $502,533 19.6% 0.8%
  Dunedin - South $525,167 19.8% -2.2%
  Dunedin - Taieri $578,301 20.6% 0.9%
  Clutha $300,854 26.5% 11.8%
  Southland $377,670 17.8% 6.3%
  Gore $290,651 21.1% 3.9%
  Invercargill $361,922 19.2% 2.0%

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67 Comments

12
up

Press articles suggesting that the home loan holidays should continue (the new never never). Offshore articles talking about mass underperforming loan. Share and houses massively disconnected from incomes.

Have we printed and loaned our way to simply unsustainable levels of debt, and by proxy prices?

We might not see another housing market boom for 12 months or longer......

TTP

11
up

Yes Tim, could be 3 years or so if we dont get a vaccine, and the big question is from what low point ...

24
up

Unsustainable things can last waaaaaaaaaaaaaay longer than most anticipate. Especially when there are all kinds of perverse incentives and a powerful narrative.

Hi gingerninja,

With "powerful narrative" like yours, who would argue?!

TTP

A. people always argue
B. what's my narrative?

It's best not to question the soundboard.

Hi gingerninja,

A. In fact, people don't always argue. There are those who are somewhat passive.

B. Your narrative is often potent. I note that you sometimes become inebriated with the exuberance of your verbosity.

TTP (Terence)

A. I was referring to people as the plural, ie humanity. Not individuals. As a group, we argue with each other.
B. I have ADHD and a high IQ. I did not choose either traits, it's not always a blessing and they don't always sit harmoniously when I try to communicate something. The speed at which ideas and words go through my brain is not something I can help unless I am medicated. Sorry.
MIRL = https://www.reddit.com/r/INTP/comments/gkkwja/well_yeah/

I always enjoy your succinct debating style GN.

Spare a moment for my poor husband who has to hear it in person.

In fact, Gingerninja, I'm jealous of your husband.

TTP

I'd be happy to take some of the speed of your ideas and words off from you, my brain sometimes seems a bit errr… what's the word I'm looking for? Oh yes "slow"

15
up

I find Gingerninja to be one of the most balanced commenters on this site, so I'm not sure what narrative you are referring to.

The irony is that you have been pushing the same narrative unswervingly for years. Never backed with facts, figures or clearly defined reasoning to back up the vague sweeping statements you make that always push the same narrative: Buy property.

You will never get facts or figures, only nasty names, unfortunately.

That's a very inappropriate/unfair comment, Chairman Moa.

Gingerninja is a very able (and respected) contributor here.

TTP

I guess I have missed this 2 important words after facts or figures "from TTP"...

The only issue with your claim is that TTP has been vastly more accurate than the majority on this chat board. He called it flat from 2017, called the bottom fairly accurately early 2018. Called the rise correctly around the end of 2019. Come what may of covid, but he did say the market would prove more resilient than expected, which has been borne out to date.
Maybe it was luck, maybe, but it does seem a bit rich to claim he is talking nonsense.

Yes Laminar, it can't be denied that TTP has been a veritable Delphic Oracle on the property market since he joined the website. Anyone would think he was an industry insider? ;-)

TTP what are the livery auguries suggesting to you at the moment?

No, not really. TPP makes very vague statements and says things like "Broadly flat.... but the next boom *could* be round the corner" but with no timeframes or concrete predictions. It's like reading a horoscope where the author makes very sweeping claims and can later come back and say "See, I was right!"

You are entirely incorrect. The very fact you think 'broadly flat' is not accurate is a strong indication you are not debating in good faith.
He clearly called the bottom in 2018 and was widely mocked for it. It ended up been a double bottom with a slightly lower low forming the true bottom but he was pretty close.
His call for a rise in the coming summer of 2019 was also built out of his claim the bottom was in and as such you can draw a coherent thesis of calls:
The broadly flat market in 2017 - accurate
Bottoming in 2018, he was off by about $15,000 - accurate
Rising again in summer 2019 - accurate
And lastly, he was uncertain about the impact of covid, but said it would prove a resilient market - accurate to date

It requires a bad faith reading of his price direction calls to think its like reading a horoscope.

16th August 2019:

TTP claims: With bank lending rates reaching this low, people are likely to seize the opportunity - getting in before the next housing market upswing.

Miguel Responds: Most respected commentators are predicting falls of between 8 and 12%. Not sure why you think "now" is the time to buy.

This occurred literally the month before the market began its climb to all-time highs from $820,000 at the time of the calls to $945,000 six months later, just before covid broke lose in NZ. Rather than a 10% decline as indicated by Miguel, it was a 15% gain.

With all due respect, Chairman Moa, that's 1 word and 1 acronym.....

TTP

As much as I find the others comments about you out of step, I did prefer it when you were less toxic.

Fair call

12
up

I see John Key promoting further opening of our borders and reversing foreign buyer ban in order to keep the economy (aka NZ property market) going.

Bank profit agenda. Is anyone surprised...?

14
up

Max needs those capital gains goddamnit!

The Ponzi PM!
However, I think there is some wisdom on his views today on where the economy is headed. Basically he has said we are screwed, and the current "relative" buoyancy is superficial

Demand side. Yesterday Barfoots provided its monthly numbers. It had 3193 listings as of end December 2019, undoubtedly this reflects the usual "summer" clean. In the first seven months of this year it has freshly listed 8919 properties, sold fewer at 5441, yet its available stock at end July has only risen by 680, a difference of 2793. .

34
up

A national average over 700k? That's just mad, especially given the poor quality of most of our housing.
Nz - rip off central!!!

Hi Fritz,

It’s not just mad.....

It’s bad!

TTP

13
up

Looks like the worm is starting to turn.

As mentioned many times, only once the wage subsidy and mortgage holidays come off will we see the true damage.

Also the end of the rental eviction ban, which is 90 days from the 26th June. Investors can't unload properties until they can get rid of the tenants in them and deliver vacant possession.

Can't they sell with the tenancy intact?

Not to first home buyers using kiwisaver.

Wellington East and Western suburbs falling! Yikes!

Hi J-P,

I note that another 80,000 people are forecast to be crammed into Wellington over the next 30 years.

Now could be a good time to buy.......

TTP

Forecast Schmorecast.
I think forecasts are becoming less and less meaningful.
Now that most cities, like Wellington, have very little land to build on, I think we'll start to see population growth really drop off.
That is, the growth won't be fulfilled unless housing can be built. In theory, a lot of housing could be realised in Wellington through apartments. The problem is apartments can only cater for a relatively minor proportion of the population.
What will happen is that there will be higher occupancy rates, and then at some point people just won't move to Wellington.

This presents opportunities for regional cities.

All of the above might change if the government finally recognises the market failure at play and starts building a lot more apartments for sale to FHBs, or for rent to middle income earners - ie. expands it's role beyond just providing state housing.

Or Wellington will just grow to swallow Petone, the Hutts and beyond like Auckland swallowed Waitakere etc. The history of cities seems to be that they suck everything in proximity into their economy.... becoming a sprawling suburban mass with horrific traffic. People drive from the Waikato to jobs in Auckland. Go figure.

There's not really much land in greater Wellington that is readily developable.
One option could be the Wairarapa

Upper Hutt isn't further developable? Genuine question because I legitimately know shit all about it. Occasionally I head out to the Hutts for some trademe pick up or another and it looks sparsely populated. And what about Ohariu and out the back of Johnsonville, Churton Park and Tawa? It looks pretty flat out that way too, what am I missing?

Hi Gingerninja,

I'd like to think it's me who you're missing......

TTP (-;

I think what you are all missing is that we are moving into the Age of Work From Home. The tide is withdrawing from crowded expensive places and washing out to the wop wops.

That big one is still looming for Wellington..

Ditto for almost any area of NZ. Some natural disaster is always winking.

Agreed. I remember speaking to USAR personnel shortly after Christchurch’s first big EQ. They were saying they never dreamed it would happen there. Most of their planning had been centred around Welly’s next big one.

Still remember working on my Geology research back in the late 80s and early 90s around Wairarapa, there are countless of fault lines running along the coast lines. Wouldn't be very nice after a big one.

2 weeks after moving to Welly we had the Kaikoura earthquake, so much of my quest to find the right house was based on earthquake safety. People thought i was nuts (granted I am somewhat nuts) but I sleep better knowing that my house is at lower risk. I still shudder when I drive around Welly and see peoples flimsy older carports precariously clinging on to the side of a hill above their house, knowing full well, even a moderate quake might see that car in the living room below.

Indeed. The paintings made and photos taken in the aftermath of the 1855 quake (itself a few short years after the 1848 event) make sobering viewing.

Love the pic. But there's no 'For Sale' sign on the front - er - Lawn. Can you kindly advise agent, location and asking price? Asking for a friend....

That is offshore. If it were in NZ it would have a rusty iron roof, the paint would be peeling, one or more windows boarded up, and a beaten up Falcon sitting on blocks on the 'lawn'. In addition, there would be a RE agent with an open home banner, a 'For Sale' sign listing the features of this dream property, GV $700K, and seeking "offers over $1.2M". Tell your friend that there is 'huge interest, don't miss out'.

"a rusty iron roof, the paint would be peeling, one or more windows boarded up, and a beaten up Falcon sitting on blocks on the 'lawn'"
So, nothing a bit of tinkering in Photoshop can't hide?

Clearly its the historically cheaper areas of NZ which are doing the best. I bought in Clutha a while back, because of its beauty and peaceful lifestyle. I see its up 26% in a year. No mortgage, no traffic to speak of, no marxist bs on the streets. Live and let live. FMH would do well to consider moving to these cheaper places, just gotta come up with a self employment plan, or skill thats in demand.

Yes Marxist BS on the streets is the worst. Fortunately I live near Remuera amongst what Chris Trotter describes as the dark impulses.

A house near me has just sold, a small house on a crossleased section, capital value $365,000. It was listed just before the lockdown, with offers over $440,000 asked for. The owner accepted $425,000.

Whereabouts was that?

Yes it would be good to know the exact house so we can analyze previous sales etc. CV, what the vendor wanted and what it sold for is largely meaningless.

Dunedin. Last sale in 2013 for $230,000. The house is 1970s build, still with original kitchen and bathroom, and 1970s decor.

85% price rise in 7 years is pretty good.

I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say I think the average price in the Auckland region will be a lot lower than $1,077,237 in a couple of years. It’s a helluva lot when you look at it in a sensible, rational way.

Especially given what the same amount can buy in proper large cities around the world. https://www.loveproperty.com/gallerylist/71563/milliondollar-homes-from-...

Unfortunately markets are neither sensible or rational.

The price in the Auckland region will probably be two million in a couple of years.

Labour, National and the RBNZ will do everything in their power to keep prices pushing up.

I would not bank on it. Lets see how the trend to work from home pans out in NZ.

Average values again, what's the point? This could tell us many things; unless it's HPI it feeds into whatever narrative you like...

Can we get some half decent analysis please?

Average prices are falling in Auckland because more apartments are being built, which are cheaper.

Meanwhile a 3 bedroom family home in Onehunga went for 500k over CV yesterday, so I'd say the price of "housing" is holding up mightily...even bubbleicious.

Yep, that is why it's best to look to the HPI

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