Overseas student numbers down by 12.5% in July compared to year ago

The COVID-19 lockdown appears to have had only a minor impact on overseas student numbers so far and may have had no impact on migrant worker numbers

20th Aug 20, 1:35pm by Greg Ninness

The COVID-19 lockdown restrictions may be stopping most migrant workers and overseas students from entering New Zealand, but they appear to be having only a minor effect on the numbers already here.

According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment, there were 74,499 people on student visas in NZ in July, which was 10,617 less (-12.5%) than were here in July last year.

Most of that decline has occurred since February when there were 82,857 student visa holders in the country.

Those numbers have steadily declined every month since, with the July figure of 74,449 being down by 8358 (-10.1%) since February.

The relatively low level of decline is probably because restrictions on inwards travel started after most of the students who intended to study here this year had already arrived, and the numbers have suggested most have stayed to continue their studies.

However those numbers may well start to rise more sharply towards the end of the year as many students complete their studies, and the timing and extent of the easing of restrictions on non-New Zealand citizens and residents entering the country remains uncertain.

Up until March, the number of people in the country on work visas had been growing steadily and had more than doubled over the last six years, hitting an all time high of 221,166 in March this year.

But the number of work visa holders in the country has declined in every month since, dropping to 205,416 in July, down by 15,333 (-8.1%) compared to the March peak.

However that reduction may be nothing more than a normal seasonal fluctuation, rather than anything to do with lockdown restrictions.

The number of work visa holders in the country also declined between March and July last year, from 205,023 in March to 190,083 in July, (-7.3%).

So the percentage decline in work visa holders between March and July last year, when no one had even heard of COVID-19, was greater than it was this year when the lockdown restrictions were in place.

And the total number of work visa holders in the country in July this year was up by 8.1% compared to July last year.

So while there has been a relatively modest fall in the number of overseas students in this country since lockdown restrictions were put in place, migrant worker numbers appear to holding their own so far.

The graph below plots the number of people in this country on work, student and residence visas each month from July last year to July this year.

Considering the economic and social turmoil that has hit the country in that time, the lines look remarkably flat.

Source:MBIE

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50 Comments

by Foreign buyer | 20th Aug 20, 1:47pm 1597888052

All temporary work visas must be cancelled so kiwis have a chance at getting through this !

by Basil brush | 20th Aug 20, 1:54pm 1597888458

In principle that's a good idea, FB. Unfortunately it is the migrant workforce that does many of the (low paid) jobs kiwis don't want to do; taxi drivers, hospo, farm work, horticulture, tourism, cleaning and the like) Removing this source of labour would have a massive impact on many sectors.

by Nzdan | 20th Aug 20, 1:59pm 1597888779

Some might not have a choice if it's the only work they have access to.

by Pat.T | 20th Aug 20, 5:30pm 1597901402

Last year the unemployment rate in Flaxmere (a large suburb in Hastings) was 18%, fruit growers were desperate for pickers.
Maybe the job seeker benefit and other sources of non taxable income provides a comfortable lifestyle.

by Millennial_Woman | 20th Aug 20, 11:35pm 1597923307

Maybe fruit growers should offer a living wage and better job security?

by Hook | 21st Aug 20, 10:29am 1597962580

So tell me, how do you offer job security in a seasonal job?? As for wages pickers are paid generally on output based rates i.e. per kg or bin. A productive steady picker can easily surpass the "living wage" hourly rate. As an ex grower myself, paying an hourly rate merely leads to some slacking off and others having to make up the differance.

by RickStrauss | 21st Aug 20, 1:23pm 1597973039

One of my relatives picked fruit decades back. He received the equivalent of $28 per hour as lead picker in a group of 10, not an output-based rate. He also received free dorm accommodation as it was commonly regarded as unrealistic for growers to be able to attract seasonal labour while expecting them to pay rent too.

Within that supply and demand equation they attracted seasonal pickers.

How does that compare these days?

by Hook | 21st Aug 20, 1:49pm 1597974578

Well Rick things have changed a bit from then, at least in my part of the world. As I said the harvesters are output paid and I only used local contractors so didn't need to provide accommodation. I also supervised so all the harvesters spent their time picking and I provided quality control and a bit of training and tractor work. $28/hr back then would have been good money. On my citrus orchard (mandarins) the folks are paid $150/400kg bin which takes 2 people about 2 hrs to fill so about $35/hr I guess each. This is an average of course.

by loveyourwork | 20th Aug 20, 6:16pm 1597904185

Yep if I lose my job I'm more than happy to get in a bit of farm work!

by Brutus Iscariot | 21st Aug 20, 7:27am 1597951622

Therein lies the problem when the government pays people a lot to do nothing.

If it's much easier to get your stimulus cheque than pick fruit, why would you bother?

by sparrow | 20th Aug 20, 2:06pm 1597889172

There's likely a major difference between the jobs Kiwis don't want to do at 4% unemployment and 10% unemployment.

by realterms | 20th Aug 20, 2:11pm 1597889469

And with and without the covid dole top-up and wage subsidy.

by K.W. | 20th Aug 20, 2:20pm 1597890055

Its not that Kiwis dont want to do the work, its just that they dont want to do it for $7 an hour. Or rather, employers dont want Kiwis when they can get migrants to work for $7 an hour and pay the employer $40,000 for the priviledge of working for them.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122467368/vicious-cycle-why-are-some-i…

by Advisor | 20th Aug 20, 2:43pm 1597891416

We need to have a national debate on whether NZ taxpayers should be subsidising businesses that can't function in the absence of low-paid foreign workers.
In 2017-18 alone, 1200 new licenses were issued to hospitality premises by the Auckland Council alone. The 'consumer' pie hasn't grown as much in the same period, so we have more of these businesses fighting for the same dollars in a congested space.

This is the case with all low-value sectors in the country and the solution is to bring even more low-wage workers from overseas to exploit and extend margins unscrupulously. I wonder why some economists still wonder why the NZ economy is unable to break its low-productivity trap.

by Rosenstein | 20th Aug 20, 3:20pm 1597893634

NZ taxpayers subsidise pretty much everything.

by RickStrauss | 20th Aug 20, 3:55pm 1597895743

True.

Accommodation supplement: property investment yields.
Working for Families: company wage costs, in addition to the above.

by mikekirk29 | 20th Aug 20, 5:30pm 1597901401

Class comment

by KH | 21st Aug 20, 8:45am 1597956345

I am sick of employer B.S. about foreign workers. The reality is they just want low paid desperate people who will comply with anything.
Time we built a nation with good incomes.

by Hook | 21st Aug 20, 10:39am 1597963140

K.W. please don't conflate migrant business owners exploiting migrants with hort and ag owner-operators employing RSEs and migrants. They are vastly different situations.

by KH | 21st Aug 20, 10:51am 1597963870

Hook. I don't have much knowledge of migrant business owners directly. But actually I do have opportunity to see how the RSE things work. It is not good at all and there is lots of exploitation.
e.g. A crew of "Vannies" were transplanted in from Marlborough. Very quiet and subdued lot, notably different from our local crews. It was explained to me that where they usually work they are kept under close watch, and threats if being sent home.
Investigation of the expectation on RSE workers should also be undertaken that they live in certain accommodation. Some of it seems priced at extraordinary rates. So a cash back to the employer ?
Not saying New Zealanders are treated any better.

by Hook | 21st Aug 20, 1:05pm 1597971909

Interesting you say the crew was transplanted in. Usually RSEs are bound to a single employer so this suggests the employer may have been a contract labour supplier. It would be interesting to know if the contractor was himself an immigrant on a PR visa (which is not uncommon) or had achieved citizenship post PR. The conduct you describe has an air of what I was pointing out, a migrant exploiting other migrants. Indeed there was a case recently of trafficking and slavery charges laid against just such behaviour.

by KH | 21st Aug 20, 7:43pm 1597995824

And who employs the dodgy contractors then Hook. ?
You insist on slinging it all on the migrant employers, and yes they are a problem, but I will not let you off the hook about bad behaviour by Kiwi employers. I do have some observation of how it works.
I have seen the local employers cry about labour shortages. The objective is to have an oversupply of labour, workers travel in to work then find they only get a few days work at most. (and yes I do know about weather as well). Often those are people who can ill afford to relocate, they do it, then get screwed.

by FamilyGuy | 20th Aug 20, 2:29pm 1597890546

Students get work visas after they finish their degree (masters) and work in IT or services. They don't pick fruits or drive cabs after spending 40-50K for a one year degree. They spend that money to get work visa and then resident visa.

by Lapun | 20th Aug 20, 2:44pm 1597891450

Agreed. Split these student migrants into two groups - one naive, too dumb to get into a decent university in country of origin, using most of the families savings to get to NZ where they can be endlessly exploited - they also keep wages and conditions bad thus discouraging Kiwis entering the same line of work. And then there are bright but not brilliant students who choose NZ as the easiest way of getting citizenship in the developed English speaking world. They may stay long enough to get citizenship and then choose to move country. The really brilliant go direct to California or Silicon Fen.
I'm not troubled by the bright ones (the best computer programmer I met in NZ was from Kerala) earning big salaries and if they move on it is our fault for comparatively high housing costs and low wages.
The foreigners who come here and end up taking low paid work is the trouble. It is an issue of morality. We benefit from those cab drivers, the liquor store open late, the cleaners working at night but it is wrong. Other wiser countries tie work visas to salary or charge a fortune for the work visa - NZ should do the same.

by Fritz | 20th Aug 20, 3:09pm 1597892943

Great post.

by TuaWai Smith | 22nd Aug 20, 1:10am 1598015406

Interesting to hear you are only troubled by the dumb people.

by TuaWai Smith | 22nd Aug 20, 1:05am 1598015127

Agree with Basil. It is the same in the States where fatty orange face wants to keep immigrants out. He is so uneducated and privileged that he has no clue that migrants do most of the jobs their entitled snot noses wouldn't even consider. Migrant workers are the backbone of many of the service industries and make a huge contribution to the economy. From what I've read here it sounds like they make good money in horticulture in NZ. Im totally for a decent wage.
Sure, we can have any conversation that bans migrant workers. Just be prepared for your already inflated price of veges etc,etc, to skyrocket, which is fine if that solves your moral dilemma. Prices across the board have already increased in many sectors in the USA due to trumps tariff wars with China. Isolationism has been tried before, failed on a huge basis, caused massive civil unrest and GDP's to plummet and ultimately wars (eg, WWII).
NZ is NOT a self sustaining nation in that it can afford isolationism and still progress.
Trump is hilarious, he doesn't even realize his golf courses and hotels would cease to operate without migrants. And those migrants are happy to do it because it is way better than what they came from in their corrupt, dictatorship, violence infused sh-t hole of a country.

by Basil brush | 20th Aug 20, 1:51pm 1597888291

Really useful data points here, Greg, The lack of a major exodus of these two groups (for now) may in part explain the stability in the property prices and rents.

This suggests that when these visas expire and next years intake is heavily restrained the economy may be in for a big hit.

by Advisor | 20th Aug 20, 2:25pm 1597890304

You're right, BB.
As per INZ's website: If you are in New Zealand and hold an employer-assisted temporary work visa due to expire before 31 December 2020, it may be extended for 6 months

If we don't see migrant-heavy sectors recovering in the next 6 months, a mass exodus is imminent in the first half of 2021. Net outflow of migrants at a time when mortgage deferrals expiry will spell doom for the housing market.

I am certain the next government, Nats or Labour, will come up with plans to balance out this outflow with fresh influx of workers or students to protect house prices in NZ.

by Lapun | 20th Aug 20, 2:49pm 1597891768

Well-paid migrants are likely to choose to stay - moving from work to permanent residency. The low-paid migrants will have minor effect of house prices - they live in garages or are sharing over-populated rentals. The property market next year will be hit by the Kiwis unable to pay their mortgage - ex-pilots now stacking shelves. Not immigrants going home.

by Fritz | 20th Aug 20, 3:11pm 1597893088

Agree apart from the CBD property market which I think is still to be whacked.

by company of heroes | 20th Aug 20, 3:16pm 1597893404

How do you know they are going to protect house prices in NZ? The government's mandate is to keep economy going and keep people employed. I think you have some misunderstanding about how government works.

by Rosenstein | 20th Aug 20, 3:27pm 1597894075

I see it as working like this: The RBNZ creates the macroeconomic environment to encourage speculation in assets, encouraging the credit-worhty to expand their portfolios, the government ensures that the bottom half can survive in the otherwise unaffordable environment to ensure no correction to a cost of living that reflects the capacity of average wage earners to afford and thrive in. Government (taxpayers) cover the social collateral of the debt machine.

by Advisor | 20th Aug 20, 3:35pm 1597894529

Two-thirds of bank lending in NZ are locked in mortgages, our construction industry employs one in 20 people in NZ and countless more sector (banking, rental & real estate, engineering services, city & regional councils) rely on the housing sector for a significant portion of their revenue stream.
These jobs and our national economy won't remain steady for a week if our house prices were to collapse. The government is well-aware of this dependence and even our centre-left leaders steer clear of policies such as CGT that could burst the asset bubble.

by RickStrauss | 20th Aug 20, 3:57pm 1597895870

If existing private construction declines, those people can be utilised by Kiwibuild, Kainga Ora and infrastructure projects. This would also have the advantage of being able to contribute more affordable housing (little need to make a profit on these houses when we're giving away money to existing house owners).

by company of heroes | 21st Aug 20, 11:48am 1597967306

I see your points. And government and reserve bank's policies at the moment are indeed pushing assets prices go up. But I would rather not say they want to prop up property prices. It's more like they don't have other choices at the moment. To keep our economy steady, they will have to keep pushing assets prices up as too many people are involved in this asset bubble game as you've stated. I don't think government and reserve banks can forever prevent this bubble from bursting. Once the money pump stop working, what else can we use to pump up the price up? We are sitting at 0.25 OCR at the moment. Yes there could be chance we go to negative interest rate. But how much lower we can go? -0.75? that's 4 cuts. We don't even know whether negative interest rate works or not. It's just a matter of time that assets bubble will burst. The later it bursts, the more people will be impacted. Banks will suffer too. Here is an interesting article to read about housing market bubble:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/housing_bubble.asp

by RickStrauss | 21st Aug 20, 1:25pm 1597973139

Someone posted one of their report links in recent times here on Interest. They were clearly describing even at that time a desire to increase house prices to enjoy the "wealth effect" (i.e. pulling wealth from the future to be spent now).

by blobbles | 20th Aug 20, 5:48pm 1597902531

They are clearly showing from all manner of policies that they will do anything it takes to prop up property prices. You cannot expect anything less from populist governments or the current breed of central bankers.

by richard1965 | 20th Aug 20, 2:16pm 1597889769

12.5% down is not bad for now. May be because many students had been already enrolled by March / before panademic and paid fees to join by February / March.

by Yvil | 20th Aug 20, 2:28pm 1597890533

Great article Greg, debunking the myth of student exodus and also migrant workers. I have to admit, that graph is incredibly "flat"

by J.C. | 20th Aug 20, 2:58pm 1597892301

Great article Greg, debunking the myth of student exodus and also migrant workers. I have to admit, that graph is incredibly "flat"

What do you expect? Furthermore, do you think it's a good thing if students and migrant workers are caught in no-man's land without any income?

by guwop | 20th Aug 20, 4:28pm 1597897699

Yes, Evil does think that is a good idea. As they will get to stay in his motel for free while he (could) receive(s) a government subsidy for it. Bottom feeders gonna bottom.

by Yvil | 20th Aug 20, 5:21pm 1597900881

Thanks Guwop, that's exactly what I was aiming for, you're amazing! Also you forgot to mention paying my staff carrots, not paying taxes and getting all the subsidies the NZ government has to offer

by Yvil | 20th Aug 20, 5:24pm 1597901040

J.C.
1) I expected a clear drop off in the graph
2) I did simply observed the facts, I did not share an opinion of it being good or bad, these are very subjective

by Lapun | 20th Aug 20, 3:03pm 1597892600

Judging by the figures no significant change in approvals for permanent residency - comparison for month of July. It will be interesting to see if policy changes after the election.
31/07/2010 Approved 2991
31/07/2011 Approved 2853
31/07/2012 Approved 3291
31/07/2013 Approved 3006
31/07/2014 Approved 3348
31/07/2015 Approved 4335
31/07/2016 Approved 4035
31/07/2017 Approved 2028
31/07/2018 Approved 2691
31/07/2019 Approved 6147
31/07/2020 Approved 3090
what happened in July 2019 - was it the change in the refugee quota??

by wewillsee | 20th Aug 20, 3:41pm 1597894866

Permanent residency is a long process requiring residency already, i doubt Covid would have any significant effect on this other than maybe slowing down processing a bit. These people for the most part will have already be well stabilized here with a residencey for at least 2 years, and typically a temporary visa for a couple years or more before that. Speaking from experience.

by Poppyc | 20th Aug 20, 9:35pm 1597916106

yeah, most people don't understand that residency and PR are essentially the same. PR just removes travel expiry limitations (residency doesn't expire, unless you leave the country after two years and haven't renewed it). Basically just removing the training wheels off the bike by showing you are committed to staying in nz for two years.

by Lapun | 21st Aug 20, 1:09am 1597928940

My apologies - those figures refer to 'R1 Residency Visas' from the MBIE stats
[ https://mbienz.shinyapps.io/migration_data_explorer/# ].
These do not take that long to get - my visas in 2003 went from tourist to work to resident in 7 months and it took me about 3 months to decide to change from being a tourist since I couldn't believe they would let me in. You are correct that those Resident visas almost invariably convert to permanent residency after 2 years.
What the stats prove is that most Resident visas are issued to people already in NZ since very few foreigners managed to enter from March onwards. From the same data explorer choose application substream and the drop off of in the refugees/humanitarian subcategory is dramatic. I wonder in INZ has noticed recent changes in the labour market.

by MortgageBelt | 20th Aug 20, 9:14pm 1597914889

By November most international students visas will expire, with no new cohorts.
Will be interesting to see numbers in January.

by hemihua | 21st Aug 20, 12:43pm 1597970599

Wow, great article. Completely shatters the myth that the international student market has collapsed and migrants are going home.