Barfoot & Thompson's October sales jump 60% year-on-year, average selling price tops $1 million for the first time

Barfoot & Thompson's October sales jump 60% year-on-year, average selling price tops $1 million for the first time

Barfoot & Thompson had a huge month in October selling 1319 residential properties, 60% higher than October last year.

It was also the most properties Auckland's biggest real estate agency has sold in any month since March 2016, which was at the height of the last residential property boom.

Selling prices were significantly higher, with the agency's average selling price passing the $1 million mark for the first time to hit $1,045,104 in October.

That was a $48,159 increase on the September average of $996,945 which means October's average price was 4.8% higher than September, and $105,972 (+11.3%) higher than October last year.

Barfoot's median selling price was also up strongly, rising from $930,000 in September to $967,400 in October.

That means the median price was up 4.0% for the month, and up 14.4% compared to October last year.

Barfoot & Thompspon managing director Peter Thompson said until recently sales over $1 million accounted for about a third of all property sales but in October that climbed to almost half (49.5%) of the sales the agency completed.

"Sales for more than $2 million are no longer an exception... representing 7.7% of total sales [in October]," he said.

"Conversely, 4.5% of sales were for properties that sold for under $500,000."

The number of new listings the agency received was also up strongly at 2119 in October, up 32% compared to October last year, while the total number of homes Barfoots had available for sale at the end of October was up 2.7% compared to a year earlier.

The interactive chart below shows the monthly trends in Barfoot & Thompson's sales numbers, new listings, average selling price and selling price growth.

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Barfoot Auckland

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110 Comments

Will be v interesting to know what % of this stock sold was off the plan.
REINZ sales last month were up 53% on Sept 19 and it was 47% in August.
They do not always tally however, as in June BT showed 4% up and REINZ 14%
Listings in Auckland yesterday for houses and townhouses were only 118
On Friday it was 225, so definitely slowing.
The prices BT are slowing for average selling per district also not showing dramatic increases that anecdote keeps reporting.
Median in Auckland is still, at present, 6.1% above March 2017

The housing market is in an upswing. What's new?

TTP

Hi Mike, thank you for sharing.

I have also noticed their sales rates have been consistently declining for a couple of months now.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0qGcqrS/B-T-clearance-rates-trend.png

Hi b21

yes it is frustrating that we do not get granular detail on sales or listings, from any of major releasers of this data.
That is why I have to count the RE NZ new listings once a week at least.
Doing so twice a week at present because this is USUALLY peak listing before the 2nd period of peak listing which is mid Feb.
In early Sept Rodney had 820 listings and now it is 673.
it is difficult to work out if this is because of less listing or higher turnover.

Hi mikekirk (and b21),

Suggest the pair of you get motivated and begin searching for houses to buy.

Sitting around micro-analysing data every-which-way won't get you anywhere fast...... The world soon moves on.

Undoubtedly, you're both smart/intelligent people. There are plenty of people not as smart as you two who have, nonetheless, got out and bought themselves property. And they're the ones who yield themselves a sense of achievement/satisfaction/security.

Go to it!

TTP

Hi TTP,

as you are no doubt aware, you know zero about my personal circumstances and that will remain so.
I do not need to buy in Auckland and do not wish to.
Land in Auckland is far too expensive and hence returns on rentals or property to live in, are better elsewhere. Plus more space and more for money in general.

Explains your illogical bias then

13
up

I suggest you keep your own advice until we ask you for it, for all you know I might have 50 investment properties. I understand you don't get the massive social problems of this but please do not make a fool of yourself.

TTP: please stop editing your posts after we have replied to them. not good

David C. Do you think the edit function could be turned off once a posting has had a comment?

Good point TTP
Bit of paralysis by analysis been going on there

TTP.. I have $1M to my name and am thinking of visiting the casino to place it all on one spin of the roulette wheel, red or black. I have micro- analysed the data and calculated my chance of serious profit to be a little less than 50% but if I lose it will cause me serious financial hardship and lower my quality of life for the next 25 years. Do you suggest I just "go to it" or be patient and wait for a better opportunity?

Hi ks,

I know nothing about casino's.

My simple advice: buy a property.

TTP

TTP.. Bought a nice one in Feb this year actually. Since I paid cash I could certainly buy several more but since I have two functioning eyes and feel confident I am adept at accurately assessing risk I won't be doing so.
The biggest risk with gambling (including property speculation and casinos) is thinking you have a guaranteed winning strategy, when in fact you don't. But GL to you.

TTP - I do enjoy you calling a spade a spade. The analysis paralysis from MK/b21 reminds me of such talk when I was considering my first property purchase. I decided to ignore such analysis and just get on with securing my future. I believe the same applies today , for me that was 38 years ago. RP was the classic analysis guy and time has proven him and his type to be wrong.

SM.. I also started accumulating properties only a few years after you. The indicators were all very positive and luckily for me things have panned out just as I expected, However, you may have noticed that there are glaring signs that we are probably fast approaching by far the biggest economic meltdown in the history of NZ. If you are betting property will go unscathed then I just don' t know what to tell you except good luck.

Are you a REA MK dont you have access to that info through Property Guru/corelogic/QV whatever they call thrmselves

Yes I am an REA and yes I have access. But it does not give grouped data required for granular detail.
Called Property Smarts and REINZ and BT do not give it.

Hi mikekirk29 (and b21),

If you believe land is "far too expensive" in Auckland, you've seen nothing yet. Don't let yourself be fooled.......

NZ's stature on the world stage has been growing for quite some time - and even moreso due to the government"s strategic approach in dealing with COVID. That's the big picture to focus on.

Auckland house values currently have plenty of headroom. There's nothing "personal" about that. (I've no particular interest in your personal circumstances.)

TTP

What data you have to support all these nonsensical predictions you keep writing, scaremongering seems to work to create FOMO which is obviously what you try to do on these forums everyday but it is not a responsible thing to do with your time.

Its the blindingly obvious b21. Demand is far outstripping supply when there are multiple dozen buyers for one available property. For.whatever reason it is pushing prices higher, and what does the govt do about it ... nothing whatsoever.

TTP, still at it here every day I see. You are the buy-at-any price type, which is dangerous if people listen to such a spruiker. Although I don’t like his personality, better to listen to the warning of property investors such as Bob Jones, who’s waiting in the sidelines with a stack of cash, just like previous recessionary times. That’s how he’s made a $billion.

Bob is waiting on the sidelines to buy COMMERCIAl properties, not houses, they are very different investments and are valued differently. TTP is right, house prices are expensive compared to yesterday but cheap compared to tomorrow, his advice to buy today is spot on (because you can't buy yesterday)

Does anyone compile the granular detail, if not why not. Maybe you could.compile it yourself by surveying your fellow agents. Tony Alexander's information gives understanding of the full picture

Good analysis. I enjoy your posts. Disgregrad the negative comments.

Hard to get genuine impartial analysis in NZ. Half of the housing problem in NZ (FOMO) is driven by the complete media saturation by special interest groups who sustain a living by clipping the ticket. Its just pressure. Its deliberate and serves only those that fund it.

Sure there is a demand side. But that doesn't force us to continually borrow ever increasing insane amounts.

The problem isn't just high prices and the risk of negative equity positions, its the feeding frenzing by all the associated industries that need continuing turnover and growth.

Most of those Ford Raptors and boats you see are bought either by a direct lending facility, or cash provided via a house sale which comes from someone else's lending facility. Not many people buy boats cars etc by cash earnt through actual productive activities.

MSM advertising, lawyers, contractors, renovators, supply stores, rock star agents. They are part of a collective beast. The beast needs more debt.

28
up

This is absolutely insane. We're potentially witnessing the destruction of the society we've known in NZ post WW2. What will society look like the next 75-10 years? Massive inequality and division. Is that what people want?

Its called human nature IO. You could give everyone the same and we would be back where we are now in the not so distant future. It is what it is, you cannot change it. Enjoy it while it lasts, the planet is overpopulated and we are wrecking it day after day. There is no next 75 years, I would give it to 2050 tops and that prediction is getting worse not better.

The difference between humans and animals is that we have the ability to choose outcomes and change the future either for the better or for the worse (both for our species and the environment).

Sure there are complicating factors, but history suggests when we collectively become stupid and fail to work together to make the future better, bad things happen. So you have to decide, individually/independently, whether you are going to join team stupid or not. The more people that join team stupid (which across the anglosphere appears to be climbing at an alarming rate) then the worse that outcome.

I'm see behaviour common to a lot of personality types (Sensing in MBTI typology) where their immediate choice is what to have for lunch, and they don't think much further ahead than that. It really is that bad. I've seen research on prisoners that describes this commonality to the majority.

Yip agree - I'm an INTJ/INFJ so spend a lot of time thinking about systems and the interaction of those related systems and thinking about the way that other people think.

Surely rising prices is a logical result of lower interest rates.

Sure - its simply stealing from the future. But what is your point?

You agreed with Scarfie that the behaviours are driven (in part) by Sensing type personalities. The INTJ approach is logic based and I believe there is logic in buying assets when the return on money is negligible.

See comment below regarding Japan. It isn't always true so yes it is logical sometimes but not if deflation sets in. You can drop rates and prices will keep falling. And its also not logical if its at the end of a long debt cycle (see Dalio's work). And you can't control human pscyhology as we don't act rationally.

So logic isn't black and white. There are always multiple perspectives to every issue and then there are black swans - i.e. things that will happen that we aren't conscious of. So how do you even account for those? You can make better decisions if you have the mental capacity to hold many, sometimes conflicting view points, in your consciousness at the same time.

'You agreed with Scarfie that the behaviours are driven (in part) by Sensing type personalities.'

Doesn't that make you worried? I agree but it doesn't make it rational.

Yes Rex Pat, there are other driving behaviours as well, like peer groups, ideologies, previous belief-driven behaviours etc...

Yes, that's logical
Unless its the bloody Illuminati elitists again

Japan dropped interest rates for decades and their house prices fell for decades - so you can decide if you want to think that one argument is logical or not.

If deflation sets in, dropping rates won't necessarily result in a rising price level. Be it consumer prices or asset prices.

Hi Donald

Hi Broken Clock :)

Better right twice a day than not at all

Was being far too generous.
Was going to say broken clock with no arms, or broken back to front clock :)
You've always been so wrong as to be comical, would be funny if FHB ignored you, but you're trying to sound like some Oracle with your silly micro-stats and saying you're an on the ground REA. And then having the cheek to reprimand the article writers on interest.co.nz
You aren't even invested in Auckland RE??? And don't intend to be???
STFU please

reign it in a bit. Plenty of social media sites if you want to go that way..

Please do continue. I value your perspective!

Agree. INFP here. Despite this knowledge and the feeling of futility that can follow, those who can see past their lunch have to keep pushing back against it. Many people throughout history have felt the utter hopelessness of turning the tide. We should still try. It still matters that we don't just sit back and let it happen.

No.
It's called a deeply distorted market.

The free market is human nature at its finest.
The last vestiges, or illusions, of a free market in real estate are gone.

No free market. Only Adrian Orr's supported and sponsored market.

It's an active shafting of generations of Kiwis to pander to an entitled set of investors.

This 'it is what it is' garbage ..is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's a great way to justify doing nothing and ensure that real change never even has a chance.

A lot of people seem very comfortable with it.

With all due respect, a lot of people have better things to worry about than in which direction the housing market is heading.

We need more of them and fewer DGM commentators and portfolio investors!

And that is a big part of the problem. The people who are really getting whacked by this don't have the time, resource or power to take up the fight.
But there is a growing young middle class who are affected, but I suspect apathy will win the day.
And we will see our overall quality of life as a society continue to erode, incrementally.

Mostly Boomers who got in the ground floor ponzi and are doing a gret job of keeping it going.

Frazz
Just scapegoating comment.
A reality check.
Anyone who has bought a home over the past decade have seen the value of their house increase considerably, their equity increase considerably more so (3 or 4 times), and their mortgage interest rates drop by as much as 50% or more putting an unexpected savings of $200 to $300 or more a fortnight in their pockets.
They are not boomers.
Those posters who have sat back calling and waiting for their claimed bubble burst in property prices have just got further and further behind, frustrated and angry.
These posters therefore blame boomers as a scapegoat to find someone to blame - but those who have done very, very well in the past decade are not boomers. Those bubble burster claimants and boomer blamers can be termed . . . well, choose whatever adjective one wants but truthfully it ain’t going to be flattering.
Take the reality check.
Cheers
A boomer

What will society look like in 5 years?

Don't have a crystal ball but any society or environment that promotes the prosperity of one group of people over another (be it within a country or between countries) usually fails. Either it returns to a more even equilibrium via wise leadership/regulation or results in a conflict of some type and the winning group is allowed to create new rules that better suits the majority of people.

At the moment we still thinking rising inequality is ok because enough people are benefiting from it. But as more people get left behind and the gap increases, well I can't tell what will happen. But it will reach a tipping point eventually and history would suggest that a significant change to the system will occur.

Sweet, so no need to be all stressed then
Looking forward to the big reset
Cheers, Apocalypse Guy

How many houses do you own again? I can't remember but it was 'significantly more than the average kiwi' from memory.

I'd only be stressed if I wasn't diversified. I.e. I had all my eggs in one investment class.

If you're diversified across asset classes and currency (all weather portfolio as Dalio puts it), then yeah no stress.

Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) has famously said he is against diversification. "Diversification is a protection against ignorance," Buffett once said. "[It] makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing."Sep 9, 2020

Despite the wise advice from Buffet I diversify for fun anyway, thanks for your interest :)
And your memory recollection is wrong, but you're pointing in the right direction

“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.”....another famous person.

Think that was Taleb said that, very true too. Be great if some commentators actually did that. A lot of losers here commenting authoritatively

My other fav quote ...

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" - Abe Lincoln (1864)

If you try talking about anything other than NZ house prices, generally you don't get a response.

My point was I think society will look ugly in 5 years, let alone 75.

Gated communities

More like a developing country.

Hi Independent_Observer,

Let's be fair and objective: the NZ housing market has shown sustained gains for much of the time post-WW2.

This is not a sign of insanity. It simply tells us that housing has proven to be a popular commodity over the years/decades, leading to a sustained upward movement in house prices.

The fact that you and other DGM have consistently interpreted and forecasted housing market phenomena incorrectly is something for you to consider - and come to terms with.

TTP

Yip you completely miss the point again - despite your name. Have a read of Ray Dalio and his work on long debt cycles/big debt crisis. If you do you'll understand how we could well be at the end phase of the post Bretton Woods system and what that means for debt/financial system/asset prices/inflation.

Here's real house prices for Australia (reflective of NZ) since 1880. If you don't see how this is bad that is ok.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/keenomics/debtdeflation_media/2009/04/IMG0031_4...

What you call gains it is actually inflation, and what this article shows is a very concerning display of hyper-inflation.

I implied in a parodic posting on this very blog, written months before the election, that those who feel the housing situation has left them stranded could and should have at the very least taken a leaf out of us babyboomers' book and got off your comfortable couch and both taken to the streets and formed a new political party to advance your cause.
NZ is probably the easiest country in the world to form a new political party; properly organised, I'm sure you would have got 5% of the vote, but you would have needed a year or so build-up time. This could have been supplemented by street protests on weekends, etc.
Protests don't work I hear you say!
Well, if you take the trouble to track down a book by Graham Hutchings called "The Swinging Sixties", opposite page 246 there is a photograph of myself and others protesting on Queen Street against French Nuclear Tests in the Pacific: our street protests at home galvanized the Lange Government to send a warship up the Pacific to Mururoa Atoll to garner world attention to the problem. Ok, I was only a small cog, but collectively we achieved our goal.
Same with the abolition of Apartheid in South Africa, same with stopping NZ's involvement in Vietnam.........women's rights, etc,etc
The trouble with house price critics today is that they only criticize via blogs from the safety of their couches in the basement; they don't want to step outside the house into the big, real world.
How about starting with a street protest against the housing situation, after all you do have all the paraphernalia (email, facebook.etc) for communications that us babyboomers never had; no excuse for not being able to organize something. I know, it all looks too daunting, but, hey, show some guts.

I'm reading a book at present about the French revolution. I'm early on and it's discussing the causes leading into to chaos.

I'm at the point were they've run out of money, tax system is broken, have already raised too much debt, and are now trying to raise even more debt at lower interest rates to keep the party alive.

People lose sight of the bigger picture because some of these trends and society changes span lifetimes and are not immediately obvious vs the daily grind of life.

Yes, society in NZ will be vastly different in 100 years time. Lots of issues will come home to rest over the next 20-40 years (climate change, fossil fuel dependance, debt levels). This covid mess ain't going away anytime soon.

And the current solution... Sooo.. Maybe we raise even More debt???

Here we go. Keep selling houses to each other.

Or better still, don't sell.

Grant Robertson:

'Well we've done a good job of reducing inequality in NZ.; Good job team'

Adrian Orr:
https://scontent.fchc2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22552409_286909818488740...

If this government cares about anything at all they must now do something about this, force RBNZ to reintroduce LVR restrictions to ensure people do not over-leverage themselves and ban property investment as long as it is required until affordability returns to normal levels.

10
up

They don't care. Nothing will be done.

Tell us something new. So is 5% rise in just one month. Not surprised as in last few months house price have gone up from 10% to 30% plus.

Thanks to Mr Orr.

No they have not. SOME house sales have.

While "Record jump in NZ unemployment rate to 5.3 per cent" ... "There were 37,000 more unemployed in the three months to the end of September, a rise of 32.5 per cent from the June quarter to 151,000 people, Statistics NZ said on Wednesday. "
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123290782/record-jump-in-nz-...

Housing market needs a serious cooldown. Otherwise we will be in a deep trouble as what happened in 2008 or it could be worse due to our recorded low interest rate and we might never be recovered. Last time, we were lucky to have OCT sitting at 8.0 to have margin to cut OCR to boost our economy. What are we going to do this time?

company of heroes ....what is the TRUE unemployment rate ??? - including people who have a job but are "underemployed" ie not enough hours and would take another job, people who have stopped looking for work, people looking for work that have not registered as unemployed etc.

I know many people in the outbound travel industry, who even though have lost their primary source of income, would never register as unemployed.

About time, especially in 2020, that we accurately knew this figure, instead of these ridiculous "sugar coated" statistics, that the MSM gobble up as the "absolute truth" !

Go look at the numbers, these are all published stats.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-...

And here it is from the NZ Government Stats website: https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/employment-and-unemployment

We define an unemployed person as someone who:
- has no paid job
- is working age
- is available for work, and
- has looked for work in the past four weeks or has a new job to start within the next four weeks.

So what about people in certain industries, that have lost their job and never report in as "unemployed" ?

Just like post 2008 our government and central bankers will just create more debt. That’s how you solve a debt crisis by blowing up the bubble even more. Sadly it’s the same playlist the world over.

10
up

An absolutely ridiculous "state of affairs" for an economy this small (USA is 25% of the entire world GDP) and their house prices are no where near Auckland's, in an equivalent sized US city.

The ones I really feel for are those folks in their 20's/30's trying to start a family, who have not got or can't get the help from 'the bank of mum & dad'

It's now time to stop pandering to the smug baby boomers and hit anyone with a 2nd or multiple properties, while leaving the family home completely alone, so at least first home buyers etc can make a decent start !

I know this will create a whole lot of work for accountants and lawyers, with people trying to "get around" this by putting their 7th investment property, in the name of their cat etc but that's the property investors problem, not anyone else's.

Everyone needs a home, but not everyone needs 3 - 5 investment properties, at the expense of everyone else !

Sure, people with multiple properties now may be celebrating and popping the champagne, but the longer this goes on for, the more the rest of society will resent the current status quo.

It's smug boomers pumping the market through wealth transfers from the poorer workers and savers to the wealthy asset holders.

They're not going to stop pandering to their ilk.

Boomers = The Bogeyman

You know this how? Have you gone out and counted them?
How did you obtain that information
Mikekirk above can't even find out which suburbs these sales are happening in

Ashley Church at Oneroof is accusing FHB's as being the main driving force

The one pumping the market right now is 57-58. Boomer.

Evidence ?

He's just slagging off Adrian Orr.

But not incorrect.

Wasn’t there an article yesterday saying just 51% sold at auction last week on the back of rising number a houses being marketed? Should the sales rate continue to decline then that should release some pressure on prices. Also read that Grant Robertson has moved his meeting forward with the RBA. Wonder what that could be about?

Ignoring April and May which were in lockdown, the sales in Auckland in March, June, July, August and Sept according to REINZ, were up 34.56% on same months in 2019. That is mania. Manias do not last, just as there is no such thing as a linear trend or cycle.
In those 5 months, the average pcm was 2592 in 2020 and 1926 in 2019.
In April-Nov 2013 it was 2682 pcm.

So, keep things in perspective.
A 200,000 increase in pop in the interim
A 13% increase in stock
And sales are LOWER

MK, for our own good it's best to see things how they are rather than how we'd like them to be. Why can't you just accept that the NZ housing market is very strong, both on sale numbers and values? Surely you must realise that your numerous predictions of house price tumble are wrong?

Calling a hipper-inflated market "very strong" is such a nice euphemism. Surely a term not coined by those affected by low housing quality and affordability.

Bloomin’ booming then.
Don’t miss the point for semantics

Sharing some of your best trolling with us today. Did you have a double shot coffee?

"NZ housing market" = please define this key term Yvil
Is this where buyers and sellers meet and produce sales and sale prices?
If we agree on that, then need to examine each part of that scenario to see if overall market is indeed "strong"

Then we need to answer question of what key reasons are for all or some parts of it being strong or not.
Rising prices, as I repeat ad infinitum, are not sole indicator of strength.
Particularly if they rise too much to detriment of buyers and FHB especially.
In a strong market an increase in pop and stock should correlate with an increase in supply and sales.
It has not done so in Auckland for roughly 12 years.
Supply is inadequate, esp of decent 3 beds and prices are too high relative to incomes.
So, we have RBNZ and government setting a framework to sustain ever more debt for buyers by cutting rates and removing LVR and hence increasing risk.
This is not healthy and it is not a "free" market.

If I stated that the sun is hot you would probably disagree and ask me to define the term hot. You are so entrenched in your position that it is of no benefit having a discussion with you.

I am entrenched. Ha. Pot and kettle.
I asked for less terminological inexactitude. You failed to clarify.
You plainly are incapable fo conducting a rational argument with points and counter-points.
Your" argument" consists of " prices up, marvellous and it will go on forever, buy now"

So we can look fwd to a Govt announcement that every cent claimed by RE agents thru the wage subsidy will be clawed back poste haste?

Editor: mad max has your approval for his acronym of STFU does he??

This MadMax user can be considered just noise at this stage.

MadMax is a bit brash but he's one of the most astute commenters on Interest, ignore his posts at your own peril

LOL, Thanks, needed a laugh today.

Another housing buy signal for Hamilton - 170 decent paying jobs gone. Get in quick before the uplift from this news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123290799/covid19-hamilton-flying-schoo...

Yes, good things happen, house prices rise, bad things happen, house prices rise...

Well done to NZ, this is clearly a good sign of economic moves by govt & RBNZ for proactive approach, in the midst of global economic contraction forecast. We should steadfast, cannot lower our guard. The same like handling Covid19? - today we learnt about unemployment rates, weeks back lower inflation figure. RBNZ must quickly put down the OCR further for sure then if it's possible give hints to market for further QEs then enlarge the scale of FLP this Nov. - at the same time govt. will thwarted this unemployment figure with prolong wage subsidy - This is the only way, to maintain this good momentum - steadfast, let's keep moving!

Don’t listen to the buy-at-any-price spruikers on here folks, we’re in ever dangerous waters now...

Madness. I own 3 residentials I built years ago, but I would vote against this nonsense if I could.

yep, time to bring the LVRs back at the very least.

YES, YES, YES! My (educated) guess that property is the way to go in NZ is paying off! At 10% annual increase I'm earning more than twice as much from my properties (on paper) as in my day job. And so many of you were complaining this government didn't like property investors! LoL.

I remember working with an American in 1999 who came to me every single day to tell me how much he had made on his dot com shares the day before. He disappeared in early 2000. Hope he didn't top himself.

Forever lamenting those who bother to take action, Carl? Very easy to see why you despise those who have taken advantage of property market trends rather than praying for the great debt reset!