The number of properties taken to auction by Barfoot & Thompson declined for the second week in a row, with sales numbers also well down.
Auckland's biggest real estate agency marketed 181 properties for auction over the week of 12-18 March, down from 226 the previous week and 242 the week before that.
The overall sales rate was also well down on previous weeks, with just 38 properties selling at the most recent auctions, down from 74 the previous week.
That pushed the overall sales rate at auction down to 21% in the week of March 12-18 from 33% the previous week.
The number of properties the agency has advertised for auction next week is back up over 200 but still down on where it was a couple of weeks ago. This suggests that while auction activity remains relatively buoyant, it may have passed its peak and be on the downward run as the market heads into autumn.
Around the Auckland region the sales rates ranged from 9% in Manukau to 28% on the North Shore (see table below for the district results).
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions around the country monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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83 Comments
Starting to get chilly! (And the weather too)
Australia. House prices rose 23.7% for the year to Dec 2021.
Can't hop across the ditch.
Yep, every man and his dog with their own currency has printed too much of it. Heck, even those without their own currency just invented one, I.e Doge coin.... I often marvel at how mad the world seems to be...
There is no place to hide.
Median standalone house price in Brisbane is $783k.
Melbourne just over a million.
Higher salaries and falling market in Sydney and Melbs shortly.
Not to mention the well built, liveable apartments and townhouses. Australia is great.
Have we really landed?
Gosh, I didn't feel a thing!
Carlos
Stop it there is not enough room in your head for both of us.
TTP
Nice try TTP, no-ones buying you're not The same person as Carlos
Over 500 listing in Palmy alone now. Up from 150 this time last year. Ouch.
Bets are on for 600+ by July?
Half built places in Manawatu also hitting the market
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/lifestyle-property/man…
This is going to get ugly in 2023 with mortgage rates at 6%+
I reckon we'll see a few half built developments coming up.
Saw an interesting statistic yesterday.
Between 13 Feb and 19 March 2021, Barfoot had a sales rate of 69.6%.
Between 14 Feb and 20 March this year, 28.6%.
What is the point? Obviously 2021 was a powerful year in property with the price surge. Do you think this year should be the same and if not it must be falling off a cliff. As a property investor I am happy to acknowledge that property is not always on a tear.
There will be plenty for you to choose from, then.
It all augurs well for a soft-landing.
TTP
"Soft-landing" makes it sound so nice, like arriving on holiday. I almost can't wait!
we've barely started our descent, never mind landing. I'm not willing this crash to happen because so many people will get hurt.
Remember, bear markets are not a 3 - 6 month thing. This bear market will be a 5 - 10yr thing, by which time TTP would have stopped commenting since the debate will be over and only the cold hard facts will remain.
Many on here want to know when is the right time to buy back in. answer - when there are no more property bulls on this site, wait a further 6 months and then buy. you will still likely miss the bottom, but it will be much better than having bought now.
Ray white sold about 100 I think I counted with a clearance rate of 44% (I'm not connected to any realestate company), lots of smoke and mirrors when looking in isolation,
B&T do seem like one of the worst performers at the moment...
Hmmm, price data omitted from the article.
Got an e-mail just yesterday from a leading RE person on the North Shore that the median prices were UP 3.7% for February. 260 sales down 44.8% and days to sell up 11 to 47. Read into it what you will.
Maybe a second article is forthcoming that will be more suited for the optimists.
Carlos your last sentence sums up these weekly auction reports well.
Reading into that your still plugging you agenda with multiple accounts TTP
Get hold of me if you want to meet up in Tauranga, Cafe 414 is quite nice. Pretty sure everyone knows TTP by sight now and his real name. Not the same guy. The same invitation goes out to anyone living in Tauranga, the ones that are on here seem pretty normal.
How is it smoke and mirrors to consistently report the same set of data weekly for several years? It's a consistent view of the market (albeit a very narrow focus on Auckland and particular method of sales). The important part is it is consistent.
I think "smoke and mirrors" would more aptly apply to attempting to deflect from a clear trend found in a consistent dataset by introducing a new dataset, no?
It's lower than this number because this doesn't consider the actions we pull before the auction day (when we have properties with no bidders registered).
Miserable.
This looks like a bit of a bargain. The owner of the other duplex should have bought it. Auctioned on Wednesday and got 740k:
That's probably the problem, the owner next door might not want/be able to do anything. You'd want both then redevelop the site.
Could comfortably do two longish, narrow townhouses to the rear.
Assuming it's developable (no title restrictions), yes that's a bargain.
Plenty of land, although narrow. Urban zone.
Could build at least 2 townhouses down the back, especially with the new density rules coming through.
These are the kinds of sites with good opportunities with the new rules coming. Very narrow, but developable. Many non-imaginative developers wouldn't even think about it. I'll have to look at these opportunities more.
Yes, on the face of it looks like a bargain!!! Someone has been savvy!
Don't you hate these sh*t box developments?
Who is saying what I have in mind is a shitbox? What a stupid comment.
It's not as simple as compact = shitbox.
It's all about design and execution of build. :)
In fact, we live in a 3 bedroom townhouse (105 square metres) designed by a leading NZ architect. Wonderful place to live in.
Of course a decent proportion of new townhouses are shitboxes.
But they don't have to be.
105 is pretty small, I'm in 175 at 3 bedrooms.
It's great for a household of 3 people. And super efficient, only about 2 square meters of corridor (so about 96 square metres net once stairwell accounted for)
Many 3 bedroom townhouses on the market are circa 90 square meters, and net 80 square meters.
Easy to clean and super efficient thermally. And close to train, shops and services.
Plus amazing attic storage. Great storage makes such a difference in a compact townhouse.
Used to develop the attic space but don't bother to do that now its not the ideal place to put anything, its way to hot in the summer and to cold in the winter. I have 175sq/m just for me so one bedroom is just my storage space now and the other is the guest bedroom. Probably 3sq/m of hallway and an epic stairway. Couldn't have designed it better myself really except for the usual not enough power points. Very hard to find a place that ticks all the boxes, took me over a year of looking.
Ten five 105
Like the phone number
<a href="https://www.interest.co.nz">interest.co.nz</a>
Let’s see what happens as rates continue to raise up from emergency levels. These houses on auction are the ones with best chance of selling, prices will need to come down before people invest in this over valued market.
The housing market is goneburger.
My central prediction of a 5-10% fall looks underdone. My second scenario of a 10-20% fall looks more likely.
10-20% would be a soft landing.
But still significant and unprecedented in NZ.
And a 20% decline would be close to 30% in real terms.
Not unprecedented. Real house prices fell much further than that in the 70s.
I meant unprecedented in nominal terms.
You are right WRT real terms.
Okay. So are you predicting a 10-20% fall in real or nominal terms?
I am not predicting 10-20%. I am sticking with my prediction of late 2021 of a 5-10% fall, in nominal terms, across 2022.
But as I said at the time, I prefer to look at scenarios rather than one fixed prediction.
My second most likely scenario was a 10-20% fall over 2022, in nominal terms. I think there's a good chance of that happening, especially if the RBNZ hikes the OCR at least 5 more times this year.
"Scenarios" are great if you cannot commit to one outcome, the more scenarios you put out there, the more likely you are to be right. And of course, it depends on how broad your scenarios are.
E.g.
I predict that the sun may or may not come up tomorrow. I also predict that it'll either be sunny, windy, rainy, or a combination of all.
The big crashes in Spain, Ireland, USA, England, Japan were also unprecedented in those countries before they happened.
Apparently NZ is not Spain, Ireland, USA, England or Japan, therefore their market forces do not apply here.
I would comfortably put a beer on that being wrong, and if you say 10 to 20 are you talking short term dip or 12 months plus? I personally think you 5/10% drop in the short term could be right but feel by Christmas we may have another picture. Just my thoughts.
It was my 2022 pick. So over the 2022 calendar year.
But yes I'm sticking with my 5-10% drop pick, just saying 10-20% is a real chance.
The only reason I said 5-10% fall and not greater is because I don't think the RBNZ will hike the OCR as much as everyone expects. Once the damage is showing in the economy and housing market by June, they will pause.
If I am wrong, and they don't pause - as per the view of all economists - then I can easily see a 15-20% fall this calendar year.
I think it will be apocalyptic, instead, and that it will be unstoppable. -40% in less than 18 months.
Why?
Because rates are going up 350% compared of what they were 2,something% => 7% so debt cost 3.5 times more, circa.
With 4k per month you used to be able to deal with 1000000
In few months the new amount will be 650000
... and I am not even considering interest only, which are houses for investors, and those guys don't need to keep it at any cost, like fhbs, that market is much much much more volatile
Houses cost is in direct proportion of how much you can borrow.
Some people will "hold" as some guys say, but the price index is based on what is sold, not what is hold.
I think the falls will accelerate once the stats NZ migration numbers around mid year show the amount of long term leavers outsizing the arrivals by a long way.
Those that bought last year will be thinking: 'But the real estate agent said there were hundreds of thousands of Kiwis selling their London houses to buy a lower quality house here but they can't because of MIQ, so I jumped in before the rush...'
I think your going to find its not the same drops across the board. The sort after properties are going to hold their value, the multitude of shitboxes on no land that turn into slums in 10 years are going to get hit. Some of the regions will have such a delay in price falls they may even miss the dip completely. I'm still going for single digit gains in Tauranga.
"House prices may fall, but mine won't".
Correct I did not buy a shitbox in the arse end of Auckland.
"The housing market is goneburger:
That shows you dont have a clue HouseMouse. Back a few comments you wrote;
"I'll have to look at these opportunities more. "
Whats your motive for the duplicitous statements... oh wait I think I can guess
Very simple, if you use your brain...
1. Yes the market is goneburger. I've picked falls of 5-10% this year, could easily be 10-20%
2. A weak market presents opportunities, right?
3. Find a site like the Titirangi one, which is 'not obvious' for redevelopment
4. Do a small development that you can be proud of, provides a great living environment for people, and which you can score a decent profit off
Get it????
score a decent profit off Get it????
Got it... Not so "goneburger" afterall.
That is you Fritz
Ohno. Its now regular news in the main press. Who knew people could read....including FHB'ers.
That Manukau result is a real shocker.
It is pretty hard to double interest rates and not collapse a market. The response to the Covid cold was was to lock the world up causing massive disruption. The answer is to unlock the world and supply it with capital so things in short supply can become more abundant. It is getting hard not to think that the people driving this are either stupid or they are engineering a collapse.
Lol, probably both.
I think the personal mission of the people in charge is only to remain in charge.
Long term planning, looking at the good of people that stiil can't vote, is not a good strategy in that sense.
Pretty sad, right?
Auckland has got way overinflated in the last two years when you look at the dollar increases (as opposed to percentage increases)
Auckland had the greatest gains, it only stands to reason it will have the greatest falls. Total nightmare up there on the roads now, just no reason to stay in Auckland other than for employment. If you could get the same job and same pay elsewhere in the country you would be out of there in a shot.
Or elsewhere not in the country.
TTP
I think that covid has positively changed traffic patterns. I’m rarely stuck in a jam driving home from work these days, and I’ve noticed recently that the harbour bridge has four northbound lanes open in the morning when it’s always been three in the past (to allow five on the southbound side). I’d be interested to see some real data to back this up, but my suspicion is that more people are working from home.
Winter is coming...
AJ… Inflation is coming harder 😳
A report from the streets:
I watched Wednesday's Barfoot's 10am auction session (Shortland street venue) streamed on-line. I was interested to see what was selling and what was not selling. Well, in my experience, they always put the most likely property to sell and attract the most bids, first. That creates a more positive atmosphere for the rest of the auction. So, they auctioned first a standard 2 bedroom brick and tile home unit (near my sisters unit) that was in an above average location. It did create multiple bids and sold for $1,200,000 to a Sydney phone bidder. The new rateable (capital) valuation of $1,100,000 had just come out a week or so before. Apart form the sale of a couple of top-of-the-range super-mansions and dungas around the $1,000,000 mark everything else was 'passed in'. It seems to seems to me that those vendors expecting between say $1,500,000 if not pristine, and say $3,000,000, is over-priced for the market...what did strike me was the number of architecturally-designed multi-storey town-houses squeezed into small infill sites, even if in the grammar zone, with no bidders; often the design of these town-houses consisted of a number of cubic shapes jutting out in all directions with no overall coherence and at least 3 or 4 stories high; also run-of-the-mill properties in pedestrian peripheral locations wanting the same price as the same house would get in a better location.
Most of the few that did sell on that session required the auctioneer to interrupt the bidding, if it had not reached the reserve, and take both vendor and the top bidder into a private room to negotiate the sale price.
I would conclude that only home units particularly in above-average locations and the mansions that only the truly wealthy can afford, will not decrease markedly in price.
Thanks for the insights Streetwise… good intel.
Great, keep the supply off the market and then it's a waiting game of who blinks first. People will always need a place to stay and never want to rent for life.
-7
You are very wrong here.
Many people rents forever, somebody prefer to be homeless, somebody lives in boats, caravans, ships, communes.
The more the housing market is hostile the more the alternatives look pretty.
What to do when you are old? Well, not everybody gets old.
The people with more political influence will win. Used to be property owners... but for how long?
What will happen in case of a Real Left party gets to the parliament?
Like the CCP?
they have their own property .... issues...
naaa, I am actually a libertarian, don't read me wrong (probably more to be considered anarcho-capitalist)
All I am saying is that this is going to lead people to extreme political choices.
If NatLab are going to look like different colours of the same conservative party and the majoirity of people start to desire actual changes the consequenses are extreme left or right to became popular.
I am stating a fact, not a preference
I am one of those people wanting to vote further to the right. Covid has made me realise that the current crop are just puppets. They have two roles, pleasing the puppet master and staying popular with the voters. David Seymour is a classic vote chaser. They all just accepted the the Big Pharma push to vaccinate the world (impossible task) and trampled over the Bill of Rights. Vax to the max sounds like the sort of thing you would see on an energy drink advertisement. It has always been the reality that 95% of people who get Covid are fine. The push should have always been to vaccinate the people that have comorbidities. But nobody pushed back and we now see Covid spreading like wildfire as it should have always been allowed to.
Covid hospital admissions in England up by 26% as UK cases soar - Covid-19 admissions in the northeast and Yorkshire up by more than 50 per cent, new data shows
With the stats at the end of your post how many of the hospitalisation are people that weren’t vaccinated. That’s the nub of it isn’t it - without that your argument falls over……
I would suggest that getting Covid and going to hospital is more about your physical health than your vaccination status. If you vaccinate 95% of the population you lose your ability to make any comparisons. I am unvaccinated and just had what I assume was Omicron. I caught it from my vaccinated daughter as did my vaccinated wife. I was the least affected with fatigue and a slight temperature. Symptoms were gone in two days but the fatigue lasted around 10 days. I personally know several people that had Covid at the begging of the pandemic. What I had in the way of an illness is identical to what they described. For healthy people Covid has never been a problem.
Some good points…
I don’t think any one has yet produced an analysis of deaths of people with Covid vs. from Covid. Appreciate not that easy to do.
Not all, but also possibly some of the unvaccinated have made other poor health choices (as will some of the vaccinated to be clear) so Covid might have just been the final straw.
The Omicron variant seems very different from what preceded it. You do wonder if that where this started the strategy might have been different.
Having said that, for me based on the science, I got vaccinated and do think people who don’t but could, are very brave. :-)
I agree to many vaccinated and part vaccinated to ever form a control group now. For all we know the outcome in terms of Omicron could have been the same with or without the vax. As a side note my brother copped a dose of Shingles after the vax, probably because the vax crashed his immune system. Had to use crutches to walk he was in agony. Fact is there will be untold side affects from the vax that will never be reported or documented.
Are they wrong, if you could buy a house for $10,000 and everyone could afford it I'm sure people would buy a house. Its just that houses are really expensive, especially in NZ on our incomes. Sure you will get homeless but those types of people are because of addictions, depression or something not featured in normal society. I'm 53 and I remember when I was 17 houses were 120K in my home town and I got a job for 27K at the steel mill. My mate had job at the meat factory, both of us had plenty to buy a house. I went to Uni when I was 20 in Otago, houses were 40K down there, me and my mate put together our money and bought a house and had flatmates. Pretty easy back in those days, so you bought a house. But not now.
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