The downturn in the residential property market is already starting to hit the real estate industry in the pocket with commission revenue well down compared to a year ago.
Interest.co.nz estimates the industry earned $457 million in gross residential sales commissions in the first quarter of 2022, down $135 million, or 23%, from the first quarter of last year.
The decline in overall commission levels was almost entirely driven by a decline in the number of residential property sales, which were down by more than 25% in the first quarter year-on-year.
Average commission levels were down only slightly from the peaks achieved in the fourth quarter of last year.
The biggest decline in total commission levels was on the West Coast of the South Island where the total estimated commission was down 40% compared to a year earlier.
However the West Coast has a very low number of sales each month compared to other parts of the country so its figures can be more volatile and should be treated with some caution.
Apart from the West Coast, the biggest declines were in Manawatu/Whanganui -37%, Auckland -31% and Waikato -24% (see the table below for the full regional results).
As the graph below shows, a clear downward trend in commission levels is now starting to emerge.
However three regions, Taranaki, Tasman and Marlborough, went against the trend and posted higher estimated commission levels in the first quarter compared to a year earlier.
At this time of year the market would usually be starting to slow as its heads towards winter, but with mortgage interest rates continuing to rise, credit availability tightening and the economic outlook generally looking uncertain, the market's winter slowdown could be more severe than usual this year, and that will inevitably flow through to agency revenues.
Belt tightening may well be the order of the day for many real estate agencies and their agents over the next few months.
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95 Comments
Poor Real Estate Agent.
Now they will actually have to work.
They might have a mental breakdown... sudden shock to the system
Wow what a rough comment, is that you Scomo
Manawatu -37%!!
Yeah, that's definitely a soft landing
Trade Totally Poleaxed
Many people in Auckland are now in debt with million plus mortgage as interest rates go up from emergency levels this could be difficult to pay with houses prices starting to tumble it won’t be long till deposit is gone and they are in negative equity. Commission and sales for real estate agents are going to be very rare from now on.
If the prospective home buyers respond with the same emotivity they used when there was FOMO, yes I agree with you.
Sales will be as rare now as 4 week property ads where rare before.
Real estate commissions do not go away in a downturn and all the FOMO ones that are getting burned will also be there on the way down as FOGO bites them, so each way the real estate agents are winners.
RCD the article is about real estate agents loosing commission
Losing
A lot of agents, particularly well seasoned ones, are still pushing the envolope. Most homes are still around $100k over valued. (for now)
Sell privately. It's not hard, and if you're worried about getting less than an agent can "negotiate", the commission should cover a lot of it.
I noticed that some agents reduced their rate of commission last year.
In 2020, cheaper houses were sought after, and sold just after listing- it was futile looking at an ad two weeks old.
In 2021, few listings and low sales, median prices increased every month.
In 2022, finance constraints, more listings, and even zero clearance rates in auctions, and median house prices still rising.
This is a good illustration of how the housing market pulled off the levitation trick.
The foundation has crumbled away, and like wile e coyote, the housing market has been left standing on thin air. Right now we're still playing out the part where he looks down in fright, but hasn't yet started falling. Haha.
Anyone who watched Mr Coyote knows what comes next.
Usually it involves an anvil
This may be the solution to NZ's shortage of fruit-pickers.
Make hay while the sun shines for sure. But like the story about the good little squirrel, save some nuts for winter.
Fruit picking is actually a job... these folks wouldn't last an hour
Spot on. With all the people leaving the real estate industry and indebted mortgagors, they can keep their homes by being a fruit picker with agri labour staffing challenges minimised. When things are tough, you need to do what you got to do to pay your bills or lose everything.
The entire RE industry is over blown. Too many super star agents, shiney marketing, billboards.
They are 80% of the reason for the mess we are in. Driving us relentlessly down this path for far to long.
Best thing a correction would bring is a massive hair cut to thier numbers.
yep because the reality is we dont need them, one ad on TM and a solicitor that you need anyway...
Quite true. Their services largely add to the PRICE of the property, not its Value !!!
Was reading some stats about the average RE income in auckland (must have been around Fed) and it was saying the average income is $130,000 for an agent...with the top 30% earning over $300,000p/a.
Would appear to me to be a massive income for a relatively low skill/low training job...
I have friends who have become agents and within a few months they are trained an earning...yet they are getting paid significantly more than nurses, physios, teachers (insert any other necessary job that is relatively low wage but requires 3+ years of training to start).
IO what your forgetting is its a 7 day a week job. Decent agents making the big money are doing long hours if they are any good. I would suggest to anyone that thinks the job is "Easy" is they have clearly not done a single sales job in their life. Always interesting that the same people that think its money for jam are not doing it themselves.
Too right. I have no particular love for real estate agents, but it's not like you have to do a 5 year degree to have a go at it. So if you think it's money for jam, have at it.
I've been a techo, and also worked (successfully) in sales. From time to time one of the techos would migrate to the front of the building to try their hand at sales. Sometimes with my encouragement - it's good to have a go at doubling your income. Unfortunately it usually only took a few months for them to realise they had totally underestimated what sales was all about, and you could see the relief as they scurried back to the rear of the building.
WAS a massive income........
A hell of a lot of them must be on well under $100k if 30% of them are on over $300k and the average is $130k. Just checking that's not a typo? Although there are 'celebrity' agents out there (The Walls, for example) who're probably earning several million, which would lift the average substantially.
In any case, that's absurd money, and nothing they do (even working 7 days a week) justifies that. See comment above re: teachers, nurses etc.
Agree but one point to note is usually an agent that can do that much in sales needs to employ a team under them and they pay the wages. So you may earn $400k commission but have $150k wages to pay for your two sales associates or whatever they call them.
It could be far worse for RE agents
It's not as if their hero and the biggest RE spruiker in the land turned on you and sided with buyers now they have the power
Oh wait...
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashley-church-five-rules-for-hiring-a-re…
Seriously, this is becoming comedy
“If speed is of the essence”....classic
Agreed. Endless talk about cycles and drivers and "I'm so great's" on the way up. On the way down "small valley"... "temporary dip". Nothing about the removal of the artificial printed rocket engines that had propelled assets in the last ten years.
Comedy indeed.
A self-anointed property expert, and failed Nat political candidate, with no property work experience or qualifications. What do you really expect from the author of paid content? Surely not informed objective opinion?
Heads up it’s going to get worse, most people are not willing to buy into overvalued market happy to wait and could be long time with so much stock on the market could be years till any pick up and then commission will be 50% less.
Many people are not willing to buy may not be correct to say as it should be that many people cannot afford to buy.
In Auckland FGB cannot buy as cannot afford and speculators will not buy. Full stop.
Good timing as plenty of fruit picking jobs available for them this time of year
Will the terrain suit their posh cars?
Swap the audi for a dusty toyota corolla...no dramas.
Might need to cut back on the smashed avocado as well though given the pay drop...but given that I watched a few tell FHB's to do that when they can't afford the rising property asking prices the last few years....karma might have the final say.
Circa 30k agents exited the industry during the GFC. Watched it up close while working along side it. The pitch to staff then, as it will be now, is say what ever is necessary to get listings, then undertake pressure on seller to accept market. Marketing costs, failed auction, etc etc.
The agent is contracted to work for the vendor. They should have no problem with recording all conversations with prospective buyers for the vendor to review. Transparency n all.
Might need to start a Give a Little page for the poor guys.
Many houses that are in market for sell are those that have been bought to speculate in last year of two and are unsold as they want much more than what they paid last year. Truth is today will be hard to fetch even their purchase price.
Example :
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/estimate/1-33-hedge-row-sunnyhills-auckland-m…
CV jumped from 825000 to 1080000 and now wants more than 1.35 million. Reason bought last year by paying premium, which was normal by paying 1080000.
Today will not be wrong to say that houses in Auckland will go minimum 10% below inflated CV, if not more.
I'm curious what this apartment will sell for: https://www.realestate.co.nz/42149141/residential/sale/4069-sarawia-str…
38 sqm apartment in a 50 year old building. CV $510,000 and sold for $527,000 in March 2021. Yes, it's in a good location, has a car park, and of course the nice view. But that's a decent chunk of money for a fairly modest unit.
The dishwasher made me laugh, I didn't realise they came that narrow.
BIS: Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family
Property price gaps build on residential property price data collected at the BIS. The
residential property price gap is the deviation of inflation-adjusted residential
property prices from their long-run trend, based on a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott
filter with the smoothing parameter equal to 400,000.
BIS residential property price statistics, Q3 2021
Prices rose with double-digit rates in New Zealand (+22%), Australia (+18%), the United States (+12%) and Canada (+10%). They increased less but still markedly in Japan (+8%) and the United Kingdom (+7%) (Graph 4).
That first quote - talk about jargon-filled gobbly gook!!!
Right up your alley then mr mouse
Oh, I really feel their pain..
They have had such a great run they should all have massive cash reserves. Surely they will not have spent it all going long on tax avoidance speculator boxes...?
Looking forward to the interesting car receiver auctions as car payments fail. Just like the GFC.
my wife works in a RE office. Can only really speak for the ones she supports but they all run pretty thin. Nice cars, one just bought a boat etc. None of them are really awake to the downside risk. Though they are all trying to brainstorm new marketing ideas & different ad campaigns etc.
Just an itsy bitsy gully.
lol.
All they know is how to repeat a sales script. If you get asked this.. answer this etc.
I think Averageman was just being sarcastic. Generally speaking, most agents like paycheck to paycheck to pay their car loans and its just a game of 1UP-ping each other not just the amount of commissions one is making in the office [Again, this is a generalisation]. Well this is the time they'll need to up their activity to make up for the lack of actual sales and try different things. Whether this will work or not is a different story.
Out of the 32000 plus houses on trademe how many after sitting on market for months will become rentals could be good for rental prices big drop coming. I would think the government would approve of this.
I was thinking...
Something simple like this:
"You pay more taxes if your property is empty"
Will solve a lots of problems (and maybe even "save" some of the current house prices to go too much down)
Why?
If offer of rental properties increases rents go down
As rents are part of CPI calculation, so CPI goes down a littlebit.
Then RBNZ will detect less inflation and stop earlier raising rates.
Then Debt will be only a littlebit more expensive than now.
Then property prices won't crush too much.
That would be a non too stupid move, from a govt perspective (make a lots of friends, make just some enemies).
Some sort of capital gains tax would be effective right about now
Yep. Plus all the new supply coming on line, and young kiwis leaving.
Rents likely to be flat at best, good for the CPI…
Apartment rental listings are surging. This one even includes…..cold water!!!
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/rent/auckland/auckland…
Rental listings have Plateaued over last two months. I still have decent prospective tenants approach me direct. What does that say, cheap rent/affordable/best landlord ever. The latter
That’s good for you, but one or two properties owned by one person isn’t a market.
There’s a jackload of townhouses and apartments being finished in Auckland. The only thing preventing a total flood onto the rental market is the backlog of Code of Compliance certification that the council has to get through. So new listings of new builds is likely to be lumpy.
But in aggregate there will be a lot coming through over the next few months.
The big question on the other side of the equation (demand) is how many young kiwis head across the ditch. If it’s a lot then it’s a big headwind for the rental market.
Gobbly gook or vain hope... I go with that load of shite being what you hope will happen
Full of vitriol and bitterness this morning Houseworks ? Why? Worried? if you are so successful and wealthy why worry about some Anonymous DGMs (aka realists) on a website.
Go for a walk.
Have a nice day, I’m off to watch some football.
Well actually Fritz, you said yourself "the big question ... if"
I go with the alternative case which if you cannot handle that, maybe it is you who can take a walk. I am not worried in the slightest, you should be worried having bought your first home recently
As someone said a while back, that property is a tightrope walk. It always has been
HW2.... Gobbly gook is thinking NZ residential property investment (a portfolio of rentals) is the place to be right now.
Its a mugs game without capital gains - and now that's inverted, so you're losing money daily.
If you are freehold, what's your net yield - at best it's probably 3-5%?
If you're not freehold, your cost of debt has now doubled, and is about to triple.
And you couldn't sell them today without taking a decent haircut - as no one wants a block of flats.
But keep listening to Opes Partners and the like tell you a load of shite about optimising and growing your portfolio
Or compare it to owning Netflix shares if that makes you feel better.
Or better still, just think of yourself as the best landlord ever - brilliant
Might need to reduce the $4 billion+ of landlord welfare benefits too.
oh dear, how sad, never mind, move on, boo hoo. The sooner we refuse to pay their criminal fees the better.
So much debate on housing, which many tries to prove that is not a crisis.one does not need to be an expert but basic calculation will tell all.
Today $600000 mortage will require a payment between $750 to $850 per week and this will be $750000 house with 20% deposit.
Firstly what will one find for $750000 in Auckland.
Secondly even if one find some dingy accomodation, $800 per week by itself is not reasonable and if one is talking about a million dollar house than how many can actually afford to between $1100 to $1200 per week for $800000 to $850000 mortage. To note even by paying $1200 per week will get a unit. $1200 per week will be appox $72000 salary per week.
Above itself is self explanatory.
Agree. These are good basic "back of envelope" numbers. Simple calculations for a simple understanding of how fooked the situation is. 72k gross pay to be 100% consumed on the mortgage,for a 2 beddy Brick'n'tile sausage block 1960's unit.
Then there is rates ,insurance, maintenance and the kitchen and bathroom upgrade as it hasn't been touched,after being a renter for last 20 years. And the fences are stuffed and driveways are cracked.
It's a bargain! Be quick!
Early 2021 i wanted to buy a two beddie soggy mouldy unit in east awkland they were going for 950K+....didnt go ahead because i thought that was disgusting.
Simple math!
which most economists don’t even seem to understand…
The word is "maths"
In the past you would rent it; get say $600 and claim most of that $800 mortgage interest as a business expense. Tough it out for a couple of years and as inflation hits, prices start to recover and all of a sudden you are laughing. Describes my inadvertent (my student daughters never moved in) purchase of an apartment in 2008. Now you can't claim interest it doesn't add up even for the well paid. Worse for the retired who have put their savings into property. There will be repossessions and once that starts it becomes a snowball.
Once the fire sale begins the agents will be creaming it once again : they don't care whether your house sells for 1.4 Mil or $750k, it's still a great big fat commission
Agree, they just want a kill but how many vendors are ready to meet the market, as they say.
Only those who have bought houses much before and has to sell will be able to sell as a million dollar on $600000 house bought 4 to 6 years is still not bad though if had sold last year would have fetched 1.2 to 1.3 million or more as everything was insane. Now take those who bought the same house last year for 1.2 million with expectation of fast money still hoping for 1.4 million or 1.3 million but will be lucky if get million as a result will not sell if cash rich.
Not to forget most investors are looking at their portfolio in stock and not happy to see 30% to 80% fall.
"Not to forget most investors are looking at their portfolio in stock and not happy to see 30% to 80% fall."
Which means 'there is no alternative' (TINA) to RE
This is a good time to keep an eye to buy sound bluechip stock but has to be for long term.
Buy Netflix (code NFLX). Be quick. Catch a falling knife. A few days ago someone who's opinion I respect said Netflix is oversold, yet they are still crashing
I wonder if those share investors have any spare cash right now. The smart ones do
US stocks have been a speculative wet dream. Falls recently, Netflix being the latest high profile example, signal the start of a massive reset. Money printed in the US recently has mostly been plowed into share speculation, irrespective of income. Pure tulip like gambling. The scale of this is underlined when you realise 40% of all USD in circulation were printed in the last four years.
In NZ we have a different target for speculation irrespective of income...
- My understanding is that RE agents don’t even get minimum wage (no base pay) My brother in law got his licence and only received commission. He also had to pay all his own advertising, provide his own vehicle, computer, phone etc. The top agents may make a fortune but in general any other sales job would be better, as they would get base +commission and phone, computer and car provided. Are some agents salaried?
As with most NZ FIRE industries the real ownership is overseas and they get to clip a large portion of the ticket because of their "investment". There's not a lot left for most of the worker bees most likely but of course a few Queens will be creaming it.
Generally a commission only model. Good agents, the 10% selling 90% of listings, want that anyway. Could be a good time to see the UK model getting going.
Independent agent and lower fees. Bin the Agency model. Who needs it with today's tech
Thoughts and prayers.
Oh no... anyway.
FOMO had been so strong that some FHB are shit scared that falling market may turn anytime soon as many real estate agents are playing on fear to exploit. FHB are so vulnerable that do not realize that earlier it was true as rbnz could drop rates or LVR to boost but this time is different and beyond manipulation.
It will take some time for price fall to truly depict market condition and just need few desperate sell and new history on lower side will be set.
Being a RE takes talent like any other job. Those that are successful have been in it long enough to start getting the repeat business. With a cycle or 3 to 4 years that takes a while to kick in. There will be a lot of people dropping out of the industry as its heavily commission based and sales have now certainly just hit the wall down here in Tauranga. Asking prices have still not fallen yet, could be months yet before the price slides to the new RV.
"Asking prices have still not fallen yet, could be months yet before the price slides to the new RV."
Sounds like you are at a about stage 1 of the 7 stages of grief......
- Shock and denial. This is a state of disbelief and numbed feelings.
- Pain and guilt. ...
- Anger and bargaining. ...
- Depression. ...
- The upward turn. ...
- Reconstruction and working through. ...
- Acceptance and hope.
No shock here I bought a house 18 months ago at never to be repeated prices. My mother on the other hand is waiting in the wings with cash having sold 6 months ago so its a waiting game now. Will prices fall significantly ? Who knows I called 25% price falls in 2020 and it went the other way by 25% price increases instead. Its a dangerous high stakes game to play really, you apply what you think is logic but its about as accurate as tossing a coin.
The black swan effect was different. Accordingly was the inflation rate vs interest rate arm wrestle the same in 2020...?
Gravity is finally taking effect.
I think your mum will be the winner Carlos. She sold at the top or close to it. She needs to be patient as the current economic issues in NZ have some distance to run. Some New Zealanders have never experienced tough times and some will not get through them intact. Basically so many of us forgot we were on emergency interest rates and they could not continue.
So the labour government policies are working. Why are people complaining. This is what you voted for.
Thumbs up for the funniest comment of the week, Labour had nothing to do with it, in fact Labour has no effect on anything they have attempted to change.
Only partly agreeing with you. Labour is not delivering enough.
But on the other side the new intensification rules (actually bipartisan) and the removal of interest deductability are having effects.
Not as much as interest rates increases, of course
disagree, Labour has a massive effect on a few things they've tried to change
1. homelessness - worse
2. private debt - worse
3. personal freedoms - much worse
4. housing crises - worse
5. inequality - much worse
Many people are not complaining at all :D, actually the inverse
This is so dreadful, my tears might ruin my tiny violin
i don't understand the negativity toward RE agents. Yes they profited from the boom, but so what? They too will will suffer through the bust. It feel like its classic tall poppy stuff w.r.t. RE agents. The good ones, deserve every cent and lets face it, its not a job most of us would want to do.
Its not like RE agents are too blame for the bubble, that falls square on the banks reckless lending, poor government policy and cheap money.
Sure there are good agents out there. That's said they have had massive law changes to lift the industry professional conduct, new qualification standards etc. All of this was driven by multiple examples of poor behaviour. Examples would be the shenanigans behind auctions (shill bidding, bullying etc), the manipulation of prices on homes.co.nz, the purchasing of sellers houses directly to flip for true market later with out disclosure, knowingly incorrect disclosure of property faults/zoning, and lots of other unsatisfactory and unprofessional conduct easily located via a quick google search.
It all points to an industry surrounded by lack in integrity and greed that is supported (not stamped out) by the leaders profiting by it. Does that cover it...?
Oh Boo Hoo...live off your savings like others have to when times get tough.
Boohoo, my heart bleeds for them, thier gravy train is slowly coming to an end, hopefully they all saved some of the money they "earned" from the rediculous fees they were charging for the down turn they are having. Not much sympathy here for them.
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