A chill wind blew around Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms this week with both the number of properties being offered and the sales rate dropping.
Just 80 properties were offered at Auckland's biggest real estate agency's latest auctions (11-17 June), down from 106 the previous week and 118 the week before that.
Any drop in auction numbers to below 100 would have been significant but such a big fall was particularly notable.
On top of that just 13 properties were sold under the hammer, pushing the overall sales rate down to 16%, after it had hovered at 18% to 19% over the previous few weeks.
Only four districts - North Shore, Waitakere, central suburbs and Manukau had sufficient numbers of properties auctioned to provide meaningful data, and the sales rates at those ranged from 9% for Waitakere properties to 31% for those on the North Shore. (See the table below for the full district results).
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz and the results achieved, including the prices of those that sold under the hammer, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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67 Comments
TA released the results of a survey to brokers and potential homebuyers detailing their experiences trying to obtain bank lending. Very interesting reading and confirms at least anecdotally that sourcing lending is still extremely hard. Until that turns around these abysmal results will continue.
Do you get his newsletters? Has he shown any humility around his nonsensical forecast in January of +5% increases in house prices in 2022???
No I haven’t seen him acknowledge that error and I suspect he won’t.
He still thinks house price growth will be 5% per year - *in the future*. All is well...stay engaged in the market everyone...
Independent Economist Tony Alexander, 'Tonys Thoughts' Video (Just ignore NZ Home Loans as a sponsor - irrelevant): https://youtu.be/8AQe4jWWDe8
Hehe
Such an objective economist. Couldn’t possibly be influenced by all his real estate sponsors!!!
I heard him interviewed the other day and he was banging the “properly will double in value every 10 years” drum. When someone actually put some factual heat on him he changed his tune to “Well I expect property to double in the next 10 years but not sure after that”. Ha, so the gravy train will continue until you and your mates are ready to cash out and retire but who cares after that!
If First Home Buyers get in distress they should band together and have a go at the NZ Herald, Ashley and Tony.
And achieve what exactly...
What's the worst penalty for someone unqualified giving bad financial advice, or even someone qualified giving bad advice (in the case of brokers)? Maybe they could start there. Loads of evidence in past advertising, media and FB groups.
Yeah, no-one should have to take responsibility for their own actions....
- If an electrician says you can have a certain type of heat lamp in your house, they install it and the place burns down who is liable?
- If a plumber says you can have mains hot water in your house, they install it and the place floods who is liable?
- If the bank says you can borrow $800k, they lend you the money and the economy tanks who is liable?
A part of trades and many businesses deriving an income is to provide a service, knowledge and expertise. We part with our money with the expectation that risks are handled, why should banks get a free pass through reckless lending? Not everyone is an expert in finance like you, they might be an expert in something you're not good at like electrical work or plumbing or fixing cars.
Not everything is in the control of these 'professionals', they could do everything right and something still goes wrong. Sh*t happens... I guess that's why we have insurance.
As for NZ Herald, they're not in the business of giving professional financial advise, they offer news & opinions pieces. If you genuinely think you've had financial advise from NZ Herald and you acted on it, you should report it to FMA. If you're just looking for someone to blame because you're regretting your decisions, you should just look in the mirror.
Very good point, Nzdan.
More bankers in Parliament as of this weekend. Yippee.
Hang on Housemouse, in your 2022 predictions you said house prices would fall 5-10% but wouldn't rule out modest gains. Hardly a barge pole away from Tony's "nonsensical forecast".
I find this whole obsession with trying to predict things a bit silly. It seems to be like a fetish for some people here; being able to point back to something they said 6 months ago which turned out to be right, and saying "see! I told you so!".
TAs newsletter highlighted that most are getting denied credit or rolling existing debt especially if you are over 50. It also underlined that unless you have high equity AND high income the banks treat you with a very long pole.
The ponzi's foundation is dirt cheap credit. That is gone. My nieces LL just announced his intention to put up their rent 60% from an already premium amount. All five found other houses to move and left the cockroaches, drafts and leaks behind.
Perhaps he wanted to develop the rotbox. Good luck with that at the moment.
Good on them. Huge choice for tenants with large and rising rental listings.
Maybe both buyers and sellers are starting to realise the market conditions. Will be interesting to see the national results.
Papakura looks hot, Rodney a bit average.
In the next 59 days the RBNZ will have most likely hiked the cash rate by 100 bps. Maybe more if CPI is a shocker on 18th July. The rock is now meeting the hard place on the property market.
Is the next review on the 13th July?
Correct. We have a total of FOUR more before the end of the year. Plenty of time for "Upward valuation". Be Quick we all know where this is heading now.
Pace of fall in house prices as truly begun now.
A property that went to auction with expectation of 1.2 million to 1.3 million was listed at 1.195 million after the auction failed and today asking all buyers over one million (reason mentioned : Australia bound vendor) and real estate agent is now expecting it to be sold over weekend, it should but what if still unable to offload.
Also free section houses - old but with section that had jumped from $950000 to 1.2 million to 1.4million plus are now back, asking between 1.1million to 1.2 million.....Will they fall back to million....to be seen.
Easy come, easy go.
Be Quick!!!!!!!
"This is the One" as the Stone Roses might say.
Did you see my Fool’s Gold reference the other day?
Great band
Yes & yes!
Regarding "this is the one" I was thinking this really could be the mother of all corrections.
It’s two weeks since I wrote to the Herald. I emailed them on Wednesday for an update - radio silence.
next step - Press Council.
Good intentions but wouldn't waste my time personally. My success has come from mostly ignoring what other's are doing and just forging ahead.
I am a pretty principled person, but take your point.
I take it you are sitting on your hands and not buying anything as the housing market starts to move south. In fact you might even be selling the odd property. Tough times ahead for many in New Zealand.
I think it’s great, good on you HM.
Good work, Housemouse. You have my support.
The bigger the rise, the bigger the fall,
Christchurch was slow to join the party, really didn't get going until late 2021, and now this weeks auctions mirrored Aucklands for the first time.
I would be more worried if I had bought in Reefton , or Westport, work opportunities limited, weather average to poor, rental income, marginal on a good day.
Agree. Christchurch hung in there for a bit with only a 4-5% price drop and clearance rates up around 60. Now it's gone cold this past week.
From 10% to 5% fall, we are now witnessing 15% to 20% fall. Based on current environment and financial condition, further fall of 10% to 15% is foregone conclusion. Will be interesting to see than what ?
It's a giant curve, and at every step of the way as we travel over it, we look forward as if it were flat.
Its going down like a fat dog on wet lino!
Hopefully the price of a hillux will follow
You will be able to afford to buy the Hilux, running it may be another matter.....
The MAD days are eventually over.. it's weird just 6 months ago, a sale would rarely extend beyond the first open home...
One of the properties I had enquired had an offer on the day of the listing
Could be a good time for you to buy then DGM, less competition... I'm sure you'll be taking advantage of it.
I already own a property mate .
Saw the slow down happening in real time. We traded up in December (Wairarapa), started looking in May. Initially open homes were packed, everything selling by deadline. Found the place we wanted in November, our conditional offer was accepted. There was only 1 other offer.
They still ran open homes until we sold our place, drove past one day and it was dead. Our place sold, only had 2 viewings across 3 open homes and 1 offer (from a FHB thankfully). Was a renovated 3 bed starter home on 1/5 acre, 5 minute walk to the train station.
ToThePoint has gone real quiet..... ZeroHedge has a good article on why the US House market is poised to fall hard (basically double monthly mortgage cost now vs 1 year ago). I remember even 2 months ago listerning to TA and Church rebutt negitive equity questions on NewsTalk ZB's property hour. The very fact that talkback radio was hosting a "Property Hour" was a clear sign the top was in, as is those stupid Propellor Property adds they run. That said they have had a good run, those Manurewa crappers they started selling after the GFC at 350k got past a mill each before their current owners became the bag holders. See that only 2 of 21 I think sold in Manakau by auction last week. Negitive Equity here we come......
ToThePoint has gone real quiet.....
I have no doubt that very soon the likes of TA and Church will go very quiet as well!
Watched Bernard on telly this morning. He was being interviewed about economy, interest rates, house prices etc. I noticed he never gave his own opinion, he always referenced someone else's opinion. He has learned his lesson that in the last 20 years things don't always go the way they 'should'.
Yes Bernards staying low/poss neg OCR forecast was completely wrong in hindsight..........
TA and Church will change from "i told you that you should have bought a house" to "i told you that you should have locked in a 5 year rate" or "i told you that the regions would go down less than Akl/Wtgn".
'Only four districts .........had sufficient numbers of properties auctioned to provide meaningful data.'
Is this journalistic speak for 'at least one?'
American house prices will catch a cold but New Zealand is headed for the flu. Text books will be written of our irrational exhuberance.
Flu? Really bad case of Covid, I think.
Will NZ be referred, just like Ireland, whenever one talks about boom and doom in future.
Will NZ replace Ireland.
I think it's only fair.
After their rugby team finally beat the mighty All Blacks at home, it's only fitting that we remove their crown.
Price rise has been so huge that even after current softness, one is making a fortune.
A colleague had bought a house for $940000 in December 2020 and sold last week for 1.275 million.
Lot of noise about market falling but still a long way to go for any meaningfull correction.
There will be buyers all the way down........ probably not many of them will be investors
Some of that noise comes in the form of the REINZ Monthly Report (protip: REINZ = Real Estate Institute of New Zealand) where actual numbers are showing declines of 12% in Auckland since November. Your friend's anecdote means jack.
Lot of noise about market falling but still a long way to go for any meaningfull correction.
With the momentum we are currently building, you may be surprised how quickly we get there. I don’t think many thought they would see a 30%-40% increase in 12 months, but it happened.
So they're asking for too much compared with what buyers are prepared to pay. Sellers need to reset their expectations if they want to sell.
Yes its simply that when banks will lend the average middle class Joe/Janice a max of 500k ........ sellers will need to adjust to the average buyers capacity.
The RBNZ would do well to cease further interest rate hikes. It is the wrong timing to increase rates into a beginning recession. It is what the central banks did in 1929. Wrong timing. Result: The Great Depression.
And just ignore inflation, the way Turkey did?
Bring back "Taking The Proverbial" aka TTP, CWBW and a couple of others in that familiar vein .....I miss those "blanket all knowing", smug, "I know best" statements .....who knows, they might even help to curtail the slide in prices !
Not telling the real truth will eventually catch up with you ...whether tomorrow, in a few months or years.
Actually TTP would make a great car salesman - he has "pumped up" that old pile of junk sitting in the yard but when the customer comes back with a list of faults, as long as your arm, he's no where to be seen......
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