It may have been the rain or rising interest rates, or a general air of economic malaise. But whatever the reasons, things were pretty quiet overall at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions.
Auckland's biggest real estate agency marketed 65 residential properties for sale by auction over the week from July 9-15, down from 101 the previous week and 78 the week before that.
Of those, 12 properties were sold under the hammer at the latest auctions, down from 23 the previous week.
That gave an overall sales rate of 18%, down from 23% the previous week and 19% the week before that.
Barfoot's orders of sale suggest the number of properties offered at auction will be up a bit next week, but not by much.
So it appears that Auckland's auction numbers are bouncing along the bottom at the moment.
The table below shows the district-by-district results.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored throughout New Zealand by interest.co.nz, including the prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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51 Comments
The market has clearly turned however it's boom time again in Papakura already be Quick ! But seriously my mother has been given clear instructions to by now over the next 6 months to Christmas. Like me it's not so much the cost but finding "The one" that you can feel happy in spending an insane amount of money on.
"my mother has been given clear instructions to buy now"
Your Mother has obviously placed a lot of trust in your financial advice.
The best time to buy is when it looks like it could not possibly get any worse. We are nowhere near that stage yet. There's a lot more pain from left field to come. Investors/speculators are going to feel truly blindsided. No doubt after self serving advice from Property Brokers, some already do.....
"The best time to buy is when it looks like it could not possibly get any worse. We are nowhere near that stage yet. "
You should help the economists with their predictions. They mostly get it wrong, but you seem to know what is going to happen. The best time to buy is when you are the only buyer in the room and you low ball a desperate seller.
" The best time to buy is when you are the only buyer in the room and you low ball a desperate seller"
Yes, that's basic common sense - thank you.
Well... that's the situation now... so are you agree it's a good time to buy now? I think not
The bottom of a market occurs when there are no buyers, and that seems to be the situation we are in now.
Never try and pick the bottom! Wait till the recovery that is supported by good data.
One thing for sure is that it's not a great idea to buy when the market is in freefall like it is at the moment.
There is more than a 50/50 chance of prices dropping another 10%+ in the next 6 months.
To buy now would only suit those buying and selling in the same market, those to which money is no object or you manage to get a rock bottom bargain.
Anyone else would be wise to wait
Oh, so do you think people are going to see an 18% clearance rate and go "well here's the bottom time to buy!"?
The bottom is when price falls stop.
There is still plenty of room for downwards valuation.
The rate rises that have already occurred are not fully priced in for at least 1 to 2 years.
HPI is dropping like a rock and we are only now back to 1 year ago prices.
Anything is possible at this point, including a big drop from here.
Sellers are not desperate yet.
The desperate (forced) sales will come later, as loans need to be refixed at higher rates, and as banks put the squeeze on interest-only investment loans, and as tenants become harder to find, and as holding costs on negatively geared rentals become unbearable.
Patience.
"you seem to know what is going to happen"
Believe me, and anyone who has been posting here for a few years, RP does NOT know what is going to happen. He has been predicting house price collapses for many, many years (not just the last 2 years), back when houses were 1/4 of todays prices.
You may not know him, as he's gone quiet after so many years of being wrong but he seems to have found his voice back, now that the market is indeed heading south.
Yvil's usual modus operandi....yawn
You mean holding people accountable?
I have been a quiet observer as sometimes this comments turn from financial comments to trolling. But since we are talking about holding people accountable, didn’t you say Yvil a while back that you are not going to comment anymore?
Hhahahaha, we wish. Short term memory fail, never processed into LTM and cannot be actioned.
Can't speak for Retired Poppy, but imagine that they may mean:
- personal attacks
- an overly emotional or judgemental view of market participants ("bulls are good people, bears are bad people")
- inaccurate or fuzzy representation of history used to discredit other posters.
Agree with you mate, Yvil and TPP used to band together and basically troll anyone and everyone who wanted the prices to go down. Named us all DGM and basically gaslight everyone who disagreed with their narrative.
That's basically what the 'DGMs' are doing now with anyone that has an opposing view...
I think it's a good thing we get opposing views put forward on here. Both from an informative and entertainment point of view.
What triggers me though are a couple of prolific posters who daily say "I told you so" and quickly resort to tantrums or personal attacks instead of arguing the topic. And they would be the last people to admit that.
Not really, only to those that waffle away
It’s quite easy to see the housing market is plummeting not a good time to buy, each week around 5k off in this area. Yvil and Carlos are aware of this, so Carlos why not help your mum and give her good advice.
It's still tough to know where the market will ultimately go, or how low. Fundamentals would've reasonably suggested a correction earlier on, but welfarism from govt and Reserve Bank always stepped in and supported the market more.
A free market might be more predictable from fundamentals.
The best advice is to understand you can't time the market perfectly. So, it might still have some way to go down, it might have already started rising. If your there or thereabouts, you've done really well.
If you've managed to keep your hands in your pocket so far this year, that's already a decent effort.
"The best time to buy is when it looks like it could not possibly get any worse"
RP you would not know when that was if it hit you in the face. If what you are waiting for is a blackswan then go up to western springs, I have heard there are some there.
I'm still seeing lousy terrace cubicles marketed for upwards of 1.2 in West Auckland.
There's a long way to fall yet. Plenty of room for downward valuation.
Only three people shot dead this week. Be quick!
Yes, the property bubble that was created by a perfect storm will be deflated by another. Right now, it is still well inflated. If you have to spend/borrow an "insane" amount of money to buy a modest home then its not the right time to buy.
You might want to consider the devaluation of the NZ dollar. The 52-week range with the USD is 0.6062 - 0.7219. One year ago, a million dollar NZ home was $721,900 USD. Today that house has probably dropped to $800 NZD, making it around $485,000 USD. If the market collapses 50% and that house sells for $500,000 NZD, the economy will tank completely. That exchange rate has been down at 0.50 in the past. If that occurred, then that would make the house $250,000 USD. I only say this as a lot of our bank funding is external. Increasing interest rates to slow inflation might cause the dollar to tank. That would create inflation in imported goods. Houston, we have a problem.
US currency is the king of all currencies right now. Their inflation should be dropping soon while we are still paying more for oil in nzd terms. Lucky that nz farmers and exporters are helping to keep the country afloat.
Doggog - a few clarifications to your points - the NZD is a floating currency which depreciates versus devalues. Devaluations occur when a currency has a fixed exchange rate in place and some central authority making the call on it. The NZDUSD has seen a low of 0.3895 for some perspective. You talk of NZ house in USD terms which infers that only Americans would be buyers of houses when the price sinks, in their home currency terms, to significantly "low" levels. In the June migration numbers 2.5% (176 out of 7,090) people seeking NZ residence for the 12 months from July 2021 - June 2020 were citizens of USA. Granted other people coming here may purchase houses in USD terms but likely when coming from another country they will reference their own currency. While the NZDUSD has dropped around 13% since 15 July 2021 the Trade Weighted Index (a more comprehensive relative measure against 17 currencies) has fallen only 5% and 6% against the Indian Rupee (the country with the most applications for permanent residency 706/7090) in the last 12 months) so in broader terms the currency has only fallen marginally. On your point about a lot of bank funding is external - the banks have measures to manage the exchange rate movements IF they fund in offshore currencies. The NZD is reacting to moves of the USD and imported inflation is happening, just as the reverse happens when the currency moves up. The currency moves are a very small part of the current inflation story given the sizeable increases in other factors. While house prices from the peak will fall in high percentage terms, and any % is possible, it is always good to have some perspective as to where they have been. Oh and Houston already has a few problems of their own.
Thank you Brother Brock, once again, for your Treasure Trove of Teachings from the Prophet.
Thursday you presented a real Gem, a Nugget, a Prophetic Forecasting that spoke like Thunder.
-30% CRASH IN HOME PRICES BY DECEMBER !
My team of Specialist Fact Checkers has indeed confirmed your Findings from the Scrolls.
The Prophet was last seen here before his early Execution. Like most Prophets they have a short Life.
Darkness Hates The Light.
I hope the prophet is saving up his pennies and getting ready to buy when the time is right.
He lives in a Mansion. The streets are paved with Gold. No need for savings.
He is in a better place now. RIP The Prophet.
Most developers are still in lalaland, or at least in desperation territory.
Fair current market value for those cubicles, assuming 3 bedrooms, would be circa 850-900k I reckon.
Fair market value?
what are they worth if they gross $35k in rent and 10k net?
why would you buy one as an investment?
you’ll get 10k on a 250k term deposit now.
oh I forgot… they double in ten years
For the brave, there’s going to be some great buying opportunities in the next couple of years. Take your time and pick out the diamonds. Just make sure you buy quantity at a discount. Looking back, my best deals were at times like this.
Well said, although I'm not sure about buying "quantity at a discount" did you mean "quality" ?
I'm sure everyone understood that...
Who knows, he might mean quantity if he is talking about multiple purchases.
Don't forget there is an election next year. Would it surprise you if interest rates dropped as we approached that day?
Yes.
Elections are not part of RBNZ mandate.
Though both Inflation (very high) and max employed (very high) are.
Those two are not changing in the next year.
The vulture smells fresh meat.... KKKAAARRRKKKK!!!
Never miss a chance to live off the next generations!
Everything down but most properties which are not even attracting much interest are being listed near around 1.2million though auction, deadline .....all have failed and that too miserably.
Many of this properties will sell between mid 900s to mid one million as of now but most vendors livingin past glory/ high price and also real estate agents to get listing are still showing the moon / high price appraisal.
Funny part is when earlier for a million dollar property were getting 1.2million or more were justifying that it is market that determines the price AND NOW when 1.2 million expected properties are being offered a million or in 900s, real estate agents are getting upset and at times irritate and the justification that market determines the price is thrown out of window.
There is some irony in this situation...
"Auckland's biggest real estate agency marketed 65 residential properties for sale by auction over the week from July 9-15, down from 101 the previous week and 78 the week before that."
If I try to figure, RE agents are taking a big hit in their earnings, when fuel and food are $.
In last few years made enough to last
I wonder how many might have to offload investment properties to survive?
i have a relative who is an RE - has a backup plan of selling their place and couch surfing with mates if the market doesn't pick up in time for them to be saved from a commission choke-off.
Auctions are dead. Why people continue to get conned into them by Agencies is beyond me
Willing seller lists a price and negotiates. Speculator uses Auction, Tender, PBN and Deadline Sale. Usually in that descending time wasting order. Wake up... cheap debt fueled house speculation is in reverse as cheap credit disappears.
Popcorn is cheap for the Agents that can no longer afford advo on toast...
Nothing wrong with auctions…fast, efficient…..it’s the reserves that are too high.
drop those and offer some good investments and people will come
it’s a fair way down sorry to say though
In the small apartment market I've certainly seen some softening, but not really seeing much desperation yet. For example this unit, being advertised for 19K above CV:
https://www.realestate.co.nz/42177087/residential/sale/2109-sarawia-str…
And this one, being advertised for 155K (42% !) above CV:
https://www.realestate.co.nz/42165182/residential/sale/50332-swanson-st…
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