Activity continues to bounce along the bottom in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms as the market remains on its winter lows.
Auckland's biggest real estate agency offered 71 residential properties at its latest auctions, 30 July to 5 August, which was a slight tick up from 59 the previous week, but exactly the same number as the week before that.
Of those, just 11 were sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 15%, down from 22% the previous week.
There were only three districts where the number of properties that went under the hammer made it into double digits - North Shore, the central suburbs and Manukau, and their sales rates ranged from 14% in Manukau to 25% for the North Shore properties.
The table below shows the district-by-district results.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions around the country monitored by interest.co.nz, and the results achieved including the prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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79 Comments
Auction numbers are down. Some days, I view the auctions, just to see the bids, reserves and sold prices.
Had witnessed a mortagee sale in Goodwood Heights in early July, which failed badly with only one bidder, who too was not serious.
New way of marketing by real estate agent is that vendor expecting 1.2 million but need buyer over 1 million. Whatever does it mean ???
It only means that vendor wants 1.2 million but have got no interest even for a million
And the only bidder bidded for $850k ( CV 1.3million) and was followed by vendors bid of $950k. Agent when marketing was hinting that being mortage sell will most probably be sold to highest bidder and as were encouraging over million, will assume to anyone bidding above million but when failed came with asking close to 1.2million.
This is what is happening to many listing.
Had witnessed a mortagee sale [...] vendor expecting 1.2 million but need buyer over 1 million. Whatever does it mean ???
Doesn't it mean that 1 mil is owed in the mortgage contract but the ones who took the house to the market evaluate it at 1.2? Afaik the point of mortgagee sales is to recover the unpaid credit; getting their money's worth for the house is secondary
Think they had an offer near around million but was not accepted as now want 1.1mil
Are sales rates normally this low for winter? I can't even remember what "normal" looks like anymore.
There is not much point attending an auction as a buyer at the moment.
85% of sellers are delusional.
"not much point"
Depends. You sound like glass half empty. If you're actually serious about buying and cannot find the right one, look a bit harder. Easy as
As The Prophet would always say -
There Is No Such Thing As A Bargain In A Falling Market. ( "No matter how hard you look" )
-30% Crash in Home Prices by December.
Followed by another 30% next year? Probably.
Sounds 'Impossible!' I know. But that should just about do the rebalancing needed, and spread it over a much 'kinder' timeframe.
Just wait a little bit longer for 7% interest rates.
The Seal will break on the Scroll and the Messenger will read what The Prophet has Written.
You will be very interested.
There are some that would sell the prophet out for thirty pieces of silver.
30 Pieces of Silver will be worth a lot soon.
You could buy a field with it.
A few silver pieces could feed the staving multitudes.
The debt lenders and money tables, are not far from being flipped into a into a deep and treacherous oblivion!
Fall may be larger than recorded
"Goodall said he has spoken to realtors in the Hutt, who said homes were failing to sell even when priced 20% below peak prices."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129470098/hundreds-of-wellington-first…
Perfectly on track for -30% Crash in Home Prices by December !
Come on mate have you visited the Hutt ? I used to travel there for work, its not exactly THE place to live is it ?
I enjoy the desperation and hopium.
For that to happen 2% interest rates have to happen again. Ain't going to happen unless there is a black swan event/ severe recession.
Just in pure borrowing power terms the demand has been absolutely crushed.
"No Such Thing As A Bargain In A Falling Market"
Ya reckon. The one we bought in a falling market 12 years ago paid off handsomely even before covid. 805k now worth over 3800. Easy as. Profit vs prophet, I know which one I put trust in
"I won lotto because I was born an Gen X/Boomer. Ignoring the macro environment that we are in, i will win lotto again"
I feel bad when somebody put Gen X in the same basket of Boomers.
We don't like each other.
Don't do it. We are extremely different.
The gen x are over the hill and some closing in on retirement, so what's the difference between genx and boomer. Not a lot. I am over the hill so I can say that
Whatever.
It is a market. The housing market. What do markets do?
Young people can be ignorant as they have not yet seen what markets do.
Older people can be ignorant if they have forgotten what markets do.
When markets go up, a group of people moan.
When markets go down, a different group of people moan.
My advice, ignore the moaners and live a happy life :)
I don't think you know what a real falling market is HW - if you did, you would be far more cautious in your views.
What makes you so sure IO? Even so I have some equity I can afford to risk along with a massive 200+ income from the property that services my every need. Money that is earned fairly and honestly, not like the thieves and drug dealers I see littering the news. So eat your heart out young sir
Wo there Silver, that is truly massive.
Bless you.
Well the last time the OCR was this 'high' was 2019, and average house prices back then started with a 6... so not out of the realms of possibility.
We are only going to get real movement in this market once the forced sales start to happen in decent volumes.
Yep. And we will need to see significant increases in unemployment for that to happen - early-mid 2023.
I don't think that's going to be a problem unless we face a major recession. Which also I don't really see (no guarantee of course)
I think more likely is the continuing downward pressure due to what people can afford whenever they need to borrow new money.
And what happens when someone needs to borrow new money but can’t borrow enough to repay the old money?
Speedmax
That doesnt really happen.It’s a ponzi so everything is about not repaying the debt but moving up the ladder with bits of paper that say that you are winning…. all in exchange for larger and larger amounts of your weekly wages, plus your savings used to enter the scheme. Think Amway or woman at South Auckland church’s offloading boxes of shampoo with a pyramid shaped business plan and a dream.
Take that to a National level with hundreds of thousands of participants and that’s our economy.
We already have significant movement in Auckland. Unless you view monthly falls of 2% as insignificant.
Indeed. It's a significant bowel movement.
Dolphins off St Heliers beach this morning..marvelous place to live
This may be imminent in Wellington: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129470098/hundreds-of-wellington-first…
I have a method to determine whether I bother going to an open home or auction.
I check the homes.co.nz Price estimate to see if the agent has changed it. I assume that if they have, the new estimate is an estimate of seller and agent price expectations.
Then I simply calculate the Agent’s appraisal of improvements value.
eg. For this one the homes estimate is $5.65m. This was changed by the agent in July.
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/mission-bay/6-dudley-road/9J00b
The CV for land only is $2.35m
So to me it looks like the agent is valuing the improvements at $3.3m. At 246m2 that is about $13.5k per square meter.
If my estimate of improvements value is significantly different then I don’t bother going to the open home or auction. It’s a waste of time in my opinion.
The agent can change the estimate? That’s a bit crap. Why is the estimate almost double the CV?
Be quick! 🤡
Ashley Church has gone quiet .... very very quiet .... Covid19 ?
Wasn’t he on OneRoof’s panel of spruikers the other day, alongside TA?
... dunno ... everytime I hear the words " One Roof " or " Propeller Investments " I fall zzzzZzzzzzzz
Hibernating.. for winter to pass.. and then autumn.. and summer.. if noone hears from him by then, call the cops
That comment reminds me of the property clock. It does not get a mention these days but still ticking I suppose
He has a new article on one roof stating that he has valuation data from velocity and is currently putting his report together that justifies houses doubling in price every years. He is vowing to prove the haters wrong as rnz criticized him. I am not joking.
Still prices are holding - though down from their peak by 15% to 20% but now are resisting further fall as vendkos are holding and buyers seems to be in no rush to buy.
The moment vendors give in, it will be a big fall from here on but the question is When and not If.
Down 15-20%? I think more like 12, across NZ?
Even 12% is a far cry from 'holding'
Hundreds of Wellington first-home buyers who bought at market peak now in negative equity.
Agreed. The speculative are still sheltering on low fixed rates from a year or two ago. Those rolling loans will have followed TAs advice and fixed for one year at the lowest possible rate. So they are not really feeling the heat yet. Those that can buy are waiting for reality to apply.
Add to that more supply coming, negative immigration, educated future rent slaves heading offshore, tax rinse increasing fading, Luxon increasing looking like a buffoon, and rates continuing to climb. If the stupidly in debt cannot see that the lifeboats are further and further away then they deserve what's coming.
Do we just need a another black swan event. Hows that mortgage strike underpinning potential banks failures in China looking...?
Woohoo.. this has to be a record.. I'm off to Turners to get a discounted merc
11 sold in one week - Auckland. People already have high inflation and rates climbing, NZD tanking. The house prices are way over valued compared to income all indicators point to sinking housing market that will be with us for a number of years.
Inflation is roaring. Discretionary spending is tanking. Debt is changjng from being a rocket booster to being a millstone. Rates are only going up further.
The speculative are holding on waiting for the banks or buyers to blink. Educated youth are exiting stage left to Aussie. Those that want to buy, cant. Those that can, are waiting for price to match the cost of debt.
NOTE. Last time rates started with 7% houses were half the price they are now. Will be interesting to see which bank blinks first and starts shooting the over leveraged.
The kaaaarrek moment is coming.... fast.
Rocket booster to milestone, love it
Talk to your average Joe Blogg and they're not aware that house prices have fallen, certaintly not at the % that they have. It's only been in the last couple of weeks that we've seen main stream media writing articles that acknowledge the fall..
This is being reflected in the low auction sales rate, some vendors have no idea until they get zero interest at auction. Some realestate agents are desperate for listings also, taking on properties at ridiculous asking prices hoping the vendors will adjust their expectations...
On top of this all - B&T are terrible...
I was going to buy soon as have been following the market closely, but have realized most people aren't that aware of the predicament we are in. I've decided to rent a year as interest on my deposit almost covers my rent and I feel in about a year the New Zealand psyche will have caught up to the fact that we have a completely over inflated market and the balloon is rapidly losing air.
A fairly quick look at the auction results for last week reveals that houses that sold got good prices. Even some that were passed in got pretty good bids, sometimes exceeding CV.
No notable cheapies. One got a single bid of 2M that was bought for around 2.7M almost18 months ago.
It is a concern that many property owners wont yet be really feeling the effect of higher interest rates as well as changes in the tax rules. A lot of that impact is still to come.
What I find quite notable is the length of time there was to sell if you wanted to and you had reasonable price expectations. There is rarely a need to panic as long as you don't leave things too late. The over-leveraged should have sorted their affairs by now. If they haven't they are taking a gamble, a gamble that may pay off...or may not.
Key words are "may...or may not". Gambling is tthe right term.
I laughed out loud at this and almost choked on my coffee:
"The over-leveraged should have sorted their affairs by now"
I don't see why. They have had six months to get around to selling a property or two.
If you are deluded by greed and anticipation of house prices doubling every 10 years/never falling - why would they have sold a property or two?
I don't think you yet understand the psychology of an asset bubble.
Pain of loss appears to be the only way to learn - and we have never had such an event in NZ that has left scars for people to behave with greater caution/prudence. i.e. how you suggest they should have...but likely haven't.
I don't think you yet understand the psychology of an asset bubble.
I do tend to follow the beat of my own drum. However we all got enough shots across the bow to get the message. Also I stated the "over leveraged should have sorted their affairs", I didn't say they had. I'm really saying don't feel too sorry for them.
The take home message for next time, with property, is that you have quite a large window of opportunity to correct things. You do have to take action however.
Exactly Zac, the RBNZ has been signalling rate rises for months you deserve to get wrecked if you didn't listen.
Saw a house in Remuera get 4.2m. Top end still good right now.
Is the smart one the one buying or the one selling?
There's still money in the system in pockets is all
Where's TTP?
Tik Tok Pollyanna
He (the likes of AC and TA) is like a young boy, furiously and feveriously building an impressive sand wall around his magnificently constructed sand castle.
Yet in the back of his head he knows the tide is coming in, his efforts alone wont to didly squat against the structural forces he is trying to dissuade.........
So the elequent sand wall Boy has jumped onto his well treaded soapbox and calling up all his mates, asking them to bring their friends to help him out. They are tasked to bring more sand from their parts of the beach, to add to his large sand wall, to protect his magnificent castle......
Sorry sand wall boys AC and TA - this Tide/Debt/Inflation is many times stronger than your life's work of ever spruiking from your worn out and now discredited soapbox, calling for ever more reinforcements, to buy into your "passing the parcel" of an incendiary Debt grenade!
There were guys like AC in the US before the bubble burst there - and they go very quiet when it all comes crashing down. Its a massive reality check for them because they have to face that what they thought they knew to be true was myth....its like a rebirth for them.
Do you think he really believes the crap he spouts?
I think he probably does.
I'm sure AC & co will stick around just like these economists that get it wrong year after year...
Ash Chapel anyone?
Ashley Church’s “house prices double every 10 years” mantra is based on extrapolating data that goes back only 40 years to 1982. This coincides with the Rogonomics deregulation of bank lending that enabled a massive expansion of private debt. But it misses the boom and bust of the 1970s, where real prices dropped by about 40%, masked by inflation. And the big crash in the1930s. In fact, land speculation with associated booms and busts was integral to pakeha settlement of this country.
We just love the easy road to wealth via speculative investments - land, gold, kauri gum, kiwifruit, forestry, timeshares, stockmarket (until the 1987 crash), finance companies (until the 2008 crash) and ‘investment’ properties. The common theme to all these is the boom followed by the bust.
So there is no fast way to offload, gets serious now....
There is always a fast way to offload - it just means you have to adjust price. The more you adjust price in favour of the buyer the more you will sell. Simple economics really. Obviously does not take into account the flow on implications after a sale at a lower price than what you need/expect. That is when the real pain sets in. Good luck to those that will struggle when their higher interest rates set in. Sometimes those that abandon ship the earliest can make it to a lifeboat. Those that stick with the ship generally tend to have the longest swim to shore.
Indeed the more you adjust the price the more the sales data highlights the true market..at a much lower price point. This become self reinforcing on valuations for lending and so on and so on. Just like a rising market, the spiral can work both ways.
In a dropping market the speculators become beached whales of debt.
"beached whales of debt"
first time I have heard that description
Perhaps the environmentalist bankers and rb governor will come to their rescue doing the mahi until the whales get reflated
Nope. More likely to be euthanised by the nice caring Bankers, after they run out of every funding option (payment rope runs out).
Will get ugly if residential construction companies start falling here..... I am hearing of a dead stop in waste water systems, which normally go in with the concrete pad, so that means lots of no starts
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