Barfoot & Thompson's November sales down 41% year-on-year

Property / news

Barfoot & Thompson's sales at a 12 year low in November, stock at 11 year high

5th Dec 22, 10:39am by Greg Ninness

Barfoot & Thompson's residential property sales continued at a 12 year low in November, while stock levels hit an 11 year high.

The real estate agency, which is the biggest by far in the Auckland market, sold 700 residential properties in November. That's up from 627 in October, but down from 1182 (-41%) compared to November last year.

Sales were also down 27% compared to pre-Covid levels when 960 properties were sold in November 2019. It was Barfoots lowest November sales volumes since 2010 when the agency sold 668 properties.

Those figures suggest the Auckland market is following its usual seasonal trends, but at a much lower level than previous years.

That's also reflected in new listings, with Barfoots receiving 1577 new listings in November, up from 1371 in September, but well down (-42%) compared to November last year.

With new listings still running at reasonable levels but sales scraping along the bottom, it is no surprise that the total number of homes Barfoots has on its books is up strongly.

The agency had 5052 residential properties available for sale at the end o November, up 28% compared to November last year and the highest number for the month of November since 2011.

Price signals were more mixed, with November's average selling price rising $16,813 to $1,153,795 from $1,136,982 in October, but that remains down by $124,852 (-9.8%) from the record high $1,278,647 set in December last year.

The median selling price declined to $1,065,000 in November from $1,092,500 in October and is now down by $175,000 (-14%) compared to the peak of $1,240,000 set in November lass year.

Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said although the agency experienced its quietest November trading in 12 years, the market was far from being in full retreat.

"The 700 homes sold in the month was the highest in the last six months," he said.

"Property is selling, albeit at a lower level than at the same time last year.

"What it demonstrates is vendors and buyers are reaching an agreement as to where prices are at."

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

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123 Comments

by mja | 5th Dec 22, 10:51am 1670190690

You get the feeling that those who think property is going to have a bad few years, are the optimists.

Early 2008, a large US share market investor I knew, said surely the market's a buy as everyone is so bearish. To which I replied what if this bearish opinion is the consensus, and the reality of the situation is that things are far worse than a standard bear case.

by Dgm | 5th Dec 22, 11:52am 1670194323

The property market was awaiting trial a year ago.. court hearings started late last year.. the judge has ordered The Property market to the gallows a couple of weeks ago.. Amen

by easymoney | 5th Dec 22, 12:46pm 1670197580

So I should be buying then?

by Averageman | 5th Dec 22, 12:56pm 1670198218

Only you can decide. If it's to speculate/flip in a short term window then I personally would not.

by Black and White | 5th Dec 22, 1:59pm 1670201948

Not yet May to October 2023 they will be bargains everywhere.

This will not be pretty.

by Dale Smith | 5th Dec 22, 10:50am 1670190605

"What it demonstrates is vendors and buyers are reaching an agreement as to where prices are at."

Haha....Classic.

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 22, 11:04am 1670191476

Most of the buyers want prices that are lower.

Most of the sellers want higher prices.

Result - 77 auctions last week got no bid at all. Yes complete agreement. Contrasts to the "Bubble Popping" comments of several agency owners in the Bay of Plenty.

I used to see this on Reuters Dealing in the GFC, where the bid/offer spread on NZD could sit at 25 points in the middle of the day.. (normally only a few points).

by Fitzgerald | 5th Dec 22, 11:20am 1670192447

IT GUY, do you have any thoughts on where the NZD vs USD goes to from here? Cheers.

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 22, 1:09pm 1670198999

Forecasting currency is a bit of a mugs game....

I have no positions but do want to buy some usd soon.... I think it floats up until around the 6th - 16th Jan 2023. It often floats higher in this period. How high , no idea.

Be careful event risk here - The final Fed meeting of 2022 will happen on December 13-14 with a rate decision coming at 2pm ET on December 14.

If we get past this its unusual for a rating agency to make a move very close to xmas as the liquidity disappears. So IMHO the risk after this meeting is to the upside as long as nothing major happens geopolitically, if it does all bets are off (another great snatch quote). I don't know how to read covid and China.... has to be a negitive if the pandemic kicks off there supply chain wise, shortage of goods = price inflation for what remains.

If you trade FX always have a stop loaded, or use options for loss protection. This post is my opinion not trading advice.

by rastus1 | 5th Dec 22, 4:21pm 1670210476

This is an interesting theory and was playing out - though gone off the boil a little of late.

Brent Johnson talks Dollar Milkshake Theory (goingdeepwithaaron.com)

Because the world is completely run by fiat currencies, cash whose value is not backed by some physical good such as gold or silver, Brent expects a massive devaluation of currencies across the board. Because of the U.S. is a relatively safer, stronger economy, he expects capital to flood into its domestic markets.

by chebbo | 5th Dec 22, 11:05am 1670191511

This quote blew my mind:

"The 700 homes sold in the month was the highest in the last six months," [Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson] said.

You don't say. Higher even than the depths of winter? Get outa town.

by Taubin | 5th Dec 22, 1:15pm 1670199315

They will always find a way to spin it so it's positive. In fact, I think that's the majority of the work they actually do.

by ML | 5th Dec 22, 11:17am 1670192245

I think it was Orwell of Huxley who first came up with Doublespeak....

by gnx | 5th Dec 22, 11:21am 1670192499

Anyone want a box of beer bet with me the stock of houses for sale will double in 12 months?

GODGB next

get out don’t go broke!

smell the fear anyone

by kiwimm | 5th Dec 22, 11:38am 1670193522

Do I win if it goes up more than double?

by realterms | 5th Dec 22, 1:13pm 1670199205

I'm pessimistic about the market, but stock levels are already so high... double is a lot. If that happens it's going to be really, really ugly.

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 2:02pm 1670202159

I’m with you real terms, I reckon there will be some sell-off within the next 12 months that will stop it doubling

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 7:26pm 1670221596

So what is the number you are giving, over 64k houses for sale? Easy win for me

by Whatwillhappen | 5th Dec 22, 10:53am 1670190791

Interesting that there's no reference here to B&T's preference for auctions. This could be a factor.

by kpnuts | 5th Dec 22, 10:53am 1670190825

excellent good to see the spring Bounce effect in full swing .... surely even TA cant spruik lowest sales and highest listings in over ten years ........ or can he?

by sheriff_of_nothing | 5th Dec 22, 11:34am 1670193287

Even if China launched a full scale invasion of NZ or Russia and the US exchanged nukes, TA and AC would still find a way to push out OneRoof articles telling the masses it's a good time to buy property.

by sparrow | 5th Dec 22, 11:34am 1670193298

You obviously missed the bit where the average price went up $16,000. Be quick, we're past the bottom.

by kazadi | 5th Dec 22, 3:11pm 1670206261

Hence the difference between mean and median averages. RE industry will always pick the one which favours the greatest value.

by Thinker | 5th Dec 22, 10:54am 1670190867

Wait for the word "motivated sellers" next month haha

by Averageman | 5th Dec 22, 11:25am 1670192711

102 listings on trademe with "motivated seller".

692 listings on trademe with "must sell".

by Retired-Poppy | 5th Dec 22, 11:13am 1670192030

Hopefully with "motivated Agents" too!

Bay of Plenty not so plentiful for Agents....https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/real-estate-agents-…

I know this is not Auckland however it highlights an industry where too many are vying for a much smaller pie.

by Dgm | 5th Dec 22, 11:56am 1670194607

And over 3000 with 'doomed '

by beau | 5th Dec 22, 12:38pm 1670197101

"Vendors definitely on the move and must sell". Listed for six months, withdrawn by seller, did not sell.

Wonder how those vendors are fairing.

by nigelh | 5th Dec 22, 3:12pm 1670206372

if any of these have a listing more than 2 months at the longest 3 months old, then those phrases are a load of BS

by Pa1nter | 5th Dec 22, 9:49pm 1670230171

I imagine "mortgagee sale" gets more interest than "pretty as a picture". People love the prospect of blood in the water.

by interesting1234 | 5th Dec 22, 2:39pm 1670204369

I've been seeing it since May this year hahaha, also homes relisted again and again to make them seem newer to the market, all the tricks are out in force, never believe a RE agent

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 10:24pm 1670232297

Buyers will come back from the Xmas break, renewed and invigorated

Inflation slowing, green shoots appearing

by Mrs The Point | 5th Dec 22, 10:42pm 1670233332

Is that a Tui ad?

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 10:46pm 1670233578

There is a good chance people will rethink over the break. It happens a lot, that there is a change of sentiment in the new year

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 10:54pm 1670234086

Quite heavy sentiment coming into the new year with mortgage rates currently at > 6.5% with a minimum of 20% equity.

FLP finishes tomorrow. What will happen to rates in the lead up to the New Year?

by agnostium | 6th Dec 22, 12:36am 1670240186

You really do spout some shite. Any evidence to back up the claim that "It happens a lot, there is a change of sentiment in the New Year"?

by Amokk | 6th Dec 22, 7:12am 1670263948

A large does of self interested hopium I suspect 🙈

by nguturoa | 5th Dec 22, 10:56am 1670191008

The average price increase shows that the ones having the money and ready to pay big amounts are active in the market. This lot of people don't buy to just have a roof on b the head but buy because they want to satisfy their ego and also invest where they think they can probably make more. ( the Greedy Lot). Mind it not all wealthy are greedy. I used the word wealthy not rich.

The situation is really bad for one's who just want a roof of their own on their heads and i do not see anyone helping them in near future.

Can someone please remind me the history of French Revolution?

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 22, 11:13am 1670192033

If you want to see serious poverty, take a trip through Africa, or even closer to home the Pacific.

The only one who will be Misérable next November will be Jacinda

In true poverty people ram raid for food, not liquor and vape supplies.

by Advisor | 5th Dec 22, 11:44am 1670193846

This government has certainly been a joke on delivery and appears to have conveniently shifted their main agenda post-2020 election from socioeconomic reforms to centralisation and social justice for minorities, often both of those lumped into one.

However, I don't think having the opposition parties running the show will make things any better for NZ. Their pre-election promises are all about doubling down on all those things that make NZ worse off - removing hurdles on property speculation, feeding cheaper migrants to businesses, reduced spending on public services to fund tax cuts and so on.

by Pa1nter | 5th Dec 22, 9:51pm 1670230265

You ram raid for high value items to fence for drugs.

You shoplift food.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 11:05am 1670191553

The average price growth % y.o.y. is quite impressive when you drag it out to full time scale.

Makes the downturn during the GFC look inconsequential (which it was really compared to many countries).

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 11:13am 1670192009

Are we converging?

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 11:08am 1670191731

Here's the latest chat on the property investor FB page:

I am panicking. We bought an apartment in Papakura 3 months ago, through a property investment adviser company. Off the plan. Brand new..really nice apartment.

Now I'm scared with the market falling we will never get our money back and lose on it. I know investment property is for the long term, but with interest rates rising we are going to have to put in extra from our income potentially about $1300 a month.

We are new to property investing and got lending from our equity in our house.

The property adviser specialist pitched to us that we could potentially sell it in 5 years and pay our mortgage off ( which is about 290000)

Then I see all this talk about house prices crashing etc

I'm freaking out.

I think we have done the wrong thing.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 11:11am 1670191917

And the advice from the 'property investment advisors' (as they call themselves) is don't worry it will be worth more than what you purchased it 20 years from now.

Sounds like a very similar story to the Spanish guy I meet out tramping who told me about buying an apartment in Spain during the FOMO before their housing market crashed - it is still worth less than when he purchased it 15 + years ago.

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 11:14am 1670192083

Oh, nope, we're not converging

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 11:35am 1670193334

Why not?

Are you ignoring the fact that while it might be good/ok in the long term, the short term problem might be impossible for this person and many others to get through?

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 11:54am 1670194453

HM, my post of "not converging" was a reference to my earlier post saying to IO that "Are we converging?", when he posted

"The average price growth % y.o.y. is quite impressive when you drag it out to full time scale"

Yet just above he contradicted himself by saying house prices may not recover for over 15 years...

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 12:17pm 1670195855

Hey Yvil - could you explain what you mean by converging (I didn't understand what you meant above).

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 4:06pm 1670209596

"We are converging" = our ideas are getting similar, which I thought was the case when you posted that over the long term, RE gains were large. Then I realised our ideas are not converging (not getting similar), when you posted that you think that RE values may still not recover in 15 years time.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 4:32pm 1670211169

He didn’t say that at all.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 6:53pm 1670219611

It has been impressive, but the current drop/trend is the far more important data point on that graph!

See my post below regarding asset valuation relative to earnings.

If performance has been exceptional in the past, it gives rise that you can expect poor returns in the future until fundamentals are found again relative to that assets income. This applies to the share market also.

See the analysis by Shiller using the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio).

by Fitzgerald | 5th Dec 22, 12:19pm 1670195980

A genuine question here Yvil... have you read about Taleb's turkey?

It is a valuable tale about the dangers of extrapolation. Even if past price growth was impressive, that does not mean that future price growth will be impressive. Just because the farmer fed the turkey for 1,000 days, that does not mean that the farmer will continue to do so.

Taleb is always worth reading.

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 4:14pm 1670210098

No I Haven't read Taleb's turkey maybe I should, but I'm familiar with the idea behind it, in brief the turkey is happy with his situation every day of his life then Christmas comes and… he's dinner. One could decide to conclude that anything good must come to a abrupt and horrid end. Mind you, people tend to believe this mostly when something really good happens to others, not to themselves.

I somehow doubt how "genuine" your question, are you sure you're interested in my reply? I get the feeling you have already decided to apply Taleb's turkey to any situation that suits your ideas?

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 4:58pm 1670212724

Hi Yvil,

I don’t think Taleb was as mean spirited as you portray him. What Taleb was saying is that it is not always easy, or even possible to predict future events. Based on all past information the turkey should have expected to only get tender care and protection from his farmer, until one day when he didn’t. Same with markets (Taleb is a statistician), we can’t predict a market, just because it might have continued to rise for as long as we can remember doesn’t mean it will always do that and we can’t use past knowledge to predict when that will happen in the future. Who of us would have calculated in a global pandemic or a war in Europe, not me. I think it is a great parable.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 4:42pm 1670211728

Wait, you mean ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ may not be the source of all universal financial truth????

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 4:57pm 1670212667

Have you read it HM?

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 5:23pm 1670214205

The guy is a fraud.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 6:43pm 1670219025

And he also thinks global markets are about to experience a 1929 event. The only things he recommends holding are gold, silver and bitcoin. Nothing else (including real estate).

(I follow him on twitter although haven't read his book)

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 7:10pm 1670220653

You rate him?

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 7:20pm 1670221221

Not sure how mentally stable he is to be honest with you - so take his comments with a grain of salt. (He's pro Trump, rants about Biden/democrats to the extreme etc).

But I do find it odd that he used to suggest buying real estate using debt as one of his recommended ways to be the rich dad, but he now doesn't back that idea at all.

He's been saying sell everything and buy gold, silver and bitcoin. And everything else could get demo'd 1929 style.

Never know - he could be right. His recommended strategy in the book has worked well up to now and suddenly he's changed his tune.

That sets a red flag to me as his strategy did work and now he says it doesn't (yet there are still a lot of people following his original strategy.....actually his strategy is what has caused the problem and now he's saying its time to jump ship from that).

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 9:41pm 1670229707

HM, answer the question, have you read Rich dad, Poor dad?

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 9:46pm 1670229968

Of course

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 10:00pm 1670230821

I was asking House Mouse, because he mentioned the book in the first place

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 10:20pm 1670232022

No worries yvil, I was answering for him. He makes a bad habit of answering for me

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 4:57pm 1670212642

"What Taleb was saying is that it is not always easy, or even possible to predict future events" No sh!t Sherlock! Then I definitely don't need to read Taleb, I realised that when I was a child.

"we can’t use past knowledge to predict when that will happen in the future" Of course we cannot use past event to accurately forecast the future but in the absence of having a crystal ball, the past is the only thing we can learn from to guesstimate what is most likely to happen in the future. If you have a better, more accurate method, please let me know, I will pay you $1 million, thanks.

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 5:02pm 1670212940

Be nice Yvil.

I just took a little time to explain Taleb, and he’s right. There is no crystal balls, if there were we would have no downturns.

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 9:43pm 1670229824

Fair enough, I'll be nice: "I do not need to read a book to tell me that we can't predict the future accurately", no matter who writes the book

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 11:29pm 1670236176

Thanks Yvil

by Fitzgerald | 6th Dec 22, 7:13am 1670264039

You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink.

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 5:33pm 1670214808

So by learning from the past, in the absence of a crystal ball, we can look at places like Ireland for inspiration?

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 7:39pm 1670222378

Yes we can, but did we?

I guess the Ireland example is like the farmer going and whispering “Christmas is coming” to the turkey and the turkey doing nothing; that presumes he even could. We all knew that we were at risk of a housing crash, so many international and NZ reports highlighted it time after time. But I had discussions with so many people who were adamant New Zealand property prices will never go down. I gather the same discussions happened here on this site.

Could we have acted? Those people gathering up multiple properties could have acted, I don’t think many did. Most with just a family home didn’t have much choice. We advised our son and daughter in-law not to buy their first home in 2020, but they are young and newly together and wanted a home together, so they did. We acted and sold our large family property to downsize and relocate to Wairarapa in mid 2020, but like the Turkey we did not see the QE and other levers so severely effecting the market.

Our government could have and should have acted with appropriate housing policy/legislation but they didn’t.

haha, I think your question was rhetorical.

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 10:46pm 1670233615

Welcome to Wairarapa. We bought our first home in Masterton early 2017, and rode the wave of house price appreciation until trading into our forever home Dec. 21. What magnified our gains was luck in buying dirt cheap from an accidental distressed landlord wanting a quick sale (difficult tenant), property was a shadow listing so little competition from the open market.

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 11:07pm 1670234836

You seem settled and happy. That one deal in 2017 changed your circumstances and set you up

Pity others don't want to follow your example and ferret out similar good deals for themselves.

by agnostium | 6th Dec 22, 12:42am 1670240560

Right, so others should go back in time and find a distressed landlord in 2017?

by HW2 | 6th Dec 22, 6:16am 1670260605

If you were in reverse, at least you would be going somewhere

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 11:25pm 1670235916

Hey thanks Nzdan. Yes Wairarapa is really beautiful, but we have yet to find our “proper” family home here as the market was so disrupted when we arrived that we remained on the sidelines, thinking maybe we would build (haha, that plan soon went west) . We have bought a small property in town and are now trying to figure a good time to try to find a small lifestyle block - it’s not now. Quite a stand-off happening with mounting listings and very few sales. So good to hear Wairarapa has been good for you as a first home buyer.

by HW2 | 6th Dec 22, 6:26am 1670261200

Hello Nellbell

We advised our son and daughter in-law not to buy their first home in 2020, but they are young and newly together and wanted a home together, so they did.

I'm glad for them. Several turkeys here would tell you they did the wrong thing.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 6:55pm 1670219700

Principles there Yvil are the the best method.

For example that all assets are priced from income/earnings.

If at any point, the valuation becomes extreme relative to earnings, the investment return over time (i.e. the future) is going to poor until it normalises. This is also true on the low side - if the valuation is low relative to earnings, in time you can expect above normal future returns.

With the NZ housing at 10x incomes, apply these principles, it means your future return on invested capital is most probably (not a certainty but highly likely) going to be very poor (the good gains have already been made, and the smart money will most likely leave the market and move somewhere else with better prospects).

If houses were 3-4x incomes (as they were 30 years ago) then houses were a good investment.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 7:14pm 1670220843

Exactly and something like this is what I would have written if I had the time / energy.

It would have been a mathematical impossibility for house prices to continue diverging from incomes for ever.

they are now converging (lol)

they will diverge again but I don’t think to the same extent next time.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 7:30pm 1670221837

Yes I have tried to explain to people that it is impossible for an asset (house) worth 10x incomes to continue to appreciate at the same rate as incomes - when that asset is valued using those incomes.

If house prices at $1,000,000 and incomes at $100,000 both appreciate at 2%, it doesn't take long before it is impossible for the debt associated for that house to be paid as the compound growth of the larger number far exceeds the small number. First 2% see's the house now worth $20,000 more but the income only $2,000 more. Before long the income defaults on the debt required to fuel that asset growth.

It is mathematically impossible.This is why up to about 1990, house prices around the world were more of less flat in real terms because they grew at the same rate as incomes/inflation. Its only the last 30 years that they have gone crazy.

Dropping interest rates from 20% to 0% the last 30+ years is the only thing that has allowed house prices to grow so fantastically relative to income (i.e. they have gone from 3-4x to 10x because of that reduction in the cost of debt associated to that asset).

If that process reverses, houses could (note the use of could) fall as very long way.

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 9:24pm 1670228680

IO not that long ago you proclaimed that the rbnz had no room to reduce interest rates for the next cycle. And how could interest rates drop any more, so there wasn't going to be another cycle up. That was when the ocr was at 0.25

Bingo. Now look what has happened. Plenty of room. Your crystal ball did not see that coming.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 9:44pm 1670229873

I could argue with you about this HW2 (with good reason and logic) but you realise there is no point hitting one's head against a hard blank object.

It destroys the intellect and leaves the hard blank object bloodied.

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 9:49pm 1670230143

Your crystal balls a bit stuffed

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 9:41pm 1670229661

I agree with you IO, yield, P/E ratios or whatever returns, are crucial for valuations of assets over the long term, because cashflow is the oil of any engine. The difficulty from an investment perspective is that it's very tricky to make a decision purely based on out-of-kilter yields or P/E's because the market can and does perform irrationally for much longer than logic suggests, therefore an investor could lose out immensely. IMO the Auckland RE market has been too expensive for much longer than the last 3 years, I think it has been overpriced for 15 years at least. If someone was avoiding investing in this market for the last 15 years they would have missed out on immense returns!

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 9:53pm 1670230404

Immense returns only if they own multiple properties or sell and move to a cheaper region - otherwise they still own the same house that has the same function and value. And if they want to move, within the suburbs, have to pay the same amount for the equivalent home.

So all it has done it lock people out of ownership who didn't previously live in Auckland, or weren't born earlier enough to buy before the boom.

If I were a residential property investor I wouldn't be going near Auckland for the exact reasons you point out above.

The immense returns have been made already so until prices fall to be in line with income, its not worth touching.

(which goes back to that principle of price relative to income).

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 10:07pm 1670231223

Are you sure? Your poor track record speaks for itself. But yes you have a lot to say and can talk like a dictionary. That doesn't give you any insight.

"Until prices fall"

maybe you should learn to be more open minded

by Yvil | 5th Dec 22, 10:04pm 1670231062

IO, why are you talking about owning 1 house to live in? I was very clearly talking about investing in RE, and my point stands:

"If someone was avoiding investing in this market for the last 15 years they would have missed out on immense returns!"

by IT GUY | 5th Dec 22, 11:30am 1670193001

My advice, like Propellor Property's advice, is to sell the one you bought 5 years ago and bank the money onto your mortgage......, oh hold on that ones got no equity,...... sell the one you bought 10 years ago and bank the money onto your mortgage.

IO - its very likely that NZ will follow the Ireland cycle, we will crash and burn here, and it will destroy our residential construction industry, There will be no one to build whats needed long term. Those who purchased at the bottom of that cycle are sitting on a double, and they managed to lock in low 5 year fix at its depth. Their cycle was constrained via DTI, they had to raise them to allow FHBers to get in politically once it started to move.

Two Buffet quotes spring to mind.

The price is what you pay, value is what you get

Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.

When you buy at the bottom, from people who are being forced to sell, you are participating in a very unusual market situation. Value is not considered by the banks, they just want cash back in to minimise provisional drawdowns.

by malamah | 5th Dec 22, 11:21am 1670192511

Unfortunately "We are new to property investing".

That would be selling their own home to pay for the investment.

by titans1350 | 5th Dec 22, 11:29am 1670192967

This ad is my favourite of 2022. Always gets a good chuckle as I'm driving home from work.

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 2:19am 1670246365

And the advice from the 'property investment advisors' (as they call themselves) is don't worry it will be worth more than what you purchased it 20 years from now. [Independent_Observer]

Property Investment Advisors were correct 20 years ago...... and, no doubt, they'll be correct again.

Property is commonly viewed as a long-term investment - and a very well-proven one at that. Those savvy individuals who bought a property 20 years ago are sitting pretty now - and that's before the rental return is factored in. The DGM negative rhetoric in this blog remains unconvincing and tiresome.

TTP

by j reacher | 5th Dec 22, 4:36pm 1670211391

Our daughter bought her 1st house 20 yrs ago for 200,000.Even if prices come back quite abit it will still be 3 times what she paid.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 6:00pm 1670216450

FWIW, not that you will care…

many people, including me, wouldn’t dispute that property has been an attractive investment class the past 20 years. That is pretty much close to indisputable.

Rather, what some of us, including myself, have been questioning is whether it will be over the next 20 years.

I think the jury is out.

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 9:57pm 1670230669

many people, including me, wouldn’t dispute that property has been an attractive investment class the past 20 years

Would Mary Holm agree with you when CAGR on resi property is not that much. It is great seeing people vis-a-vis HouseMouse finally fessing up. Ignoring her and others like her actually was the best thing

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 7:03pm 1670220185

Property Investment Advisors were correct 20 years ago...... and, no doubt, they'll be correct again.

The savvy investors on that FB investor pages aren't impressed - and it includes the King of the property investment in New Zealand, the great Graeme Fowler. Even he is saying that it is not good out there and not a good time to buy residential property in NZ (commercial is his suggestion).

He basically told a few people in the thread who were on Interest Only terms that they were being foolish - never thought I'd see the day property investors started turning on themselves in fear...but here we are.

And Fowler is one who has made the big bucks in property the last 20 years...a published author on the topic. One of your brothers in arms TTP...and he's saying...don't touch it...go commercial.

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 2:17am 1670246278

Nice try, Independent_Observer, but I’ve never heard of Graham Fowler - and I dare say neither has anyone else.

While you’ve tried to pump him up to make him sound important, what you say isn’t too compelling…..

I’ll file it under fiction, in the section for fairytales.

TTP

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 9:36pm 1670229384

by tothepoint | 5th Dec 22, 9:12pm 1670227943

Nice try, Independent_Observer, but I’ve never heard of Graham Fowler - and I dare say neither has anyone else.

While you’ve tried to pump him up to make him sound important, what you say isn’t too compelling…..

I’ll file it in the fiction section, under fairytales.

TTP

I don't buy it TTP - he's one of the biggest names in NZ residential property - and area which you declare to everyone here that you are an expert in based upon your vast experience over the decades (while also being a poor renter).

Graeme Fowler is the author of the NZ Best Selling book "NZ Real Estate Investors' Secrets - How 10 New Zealanders became Millionaires from Residential Property" which was first published in 2003, and then updated in 2008. This book has now sold almost 15,000 copies making it one of, if not the highest selling book on property investment ever written in New Zealand. Graeme is a well known educator, speaker and property expert in NZ.

20 Rental Properties in One Year | Graeme Fowler Book | In-Stock - Buy Now | at Mighty Ape NZ

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 2:22am 1670246550

He might have printed 15,000 copies - but there’s a not-so-subtle difference between printing 15,000 - and selling them.

Typically, books like that end up in $2 shops - en route to the landfill. At least they decompose.

Better luck next time, Independent_Observer. 🍀

TTP

by Slapheid | 5th Dec 22, 12:03pm 1670195006

#thoughtsandprayers 👍

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 3:17pm 1670206640

A reply from a Financial Advisor.

Rates will reduce in 1-2yrs. Rents will increase. In 20yrs you’ll be glad you bought it

Are they really allowed to make these types of claims without disclaimers? No different to a qualified doctor telling a patient "in their opinion" copious amounts of Lemon Tea will cure Leukemia.

by stefanblaise | 5th Dec 22, 5:50pm 1670215845

Papakura apartments? Sounds like a bad dream.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 7:19pm 1670221154

Urbane, hip Papakura is where it’s all happening’

by nguturoa | 5th Dec 22, 7:08pm 1670220485

Taking a short cut to pay off the mortgage by shifting the debt to another potential victim? Holy cow what a thinking.

How could people who give such advice and take such advice sleep peacefully at night?

Is there no Karma out there?

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 7:23pm 1670221385

But that is the mantra of the entire property investment culture in this country - I'm going to try and maximise my personal wealth at the expense of the financial and social welfare of the nation as a whole. i.e. me making money and turning my neighbor into my rent slave is more important than living in a healthy society.

Hence my disgust at what has been happening here the last 10 years or so, allowing property investors to outbid FHBs and turn them into those rent slaves as they couldn't save a deposit fast enough with the rate that prices were rising (nor could they deduct interest expense, nor could they use the equity in a previous home, created by doing nothing, as a deposit for additional homes - FHBs actually had to save the $$ for the deposit).

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 7:18pm 1670221102

Yes but it’s hard to blame the individual investors, I think. My anger lies with the governments and the system that have enabled it all to happen.

by Independent_Observer | 5th Dec 22, 7:25pm 1670221502

Yip - John Key and Bill English saying having a housing bubble was a good problem to have etc made me extremely angry! Its such a selfish, short term thinking, and foolish position to take.

And then Adern flopping on the issue as well means I don't think I can bring myself to vote for her again either.

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 10:51pm 1670233889

True, but blaming the Government and Individual Investors are not mutually exclusive.

Just like you can be angry that the Government allows a pedophile to walk free alive after 8 - 10 years in prison, and you can also be angry at the Pedophile.

by Nellbell | 5th Dec 22, 9:32pm 1670229130

Agree entirely. I watched “The Flaw” on Appletv a few weeks back. Robert Schiller and others look at the major flaw in central bank thinking; being that while the banks were concerned about increases in commodity prices, they ignored increases in asset prices - specifically housing - was not seen as a problem, actually house price growth was seen as a positive. The conclusion is that asset bubbles are a big problem and shift wealth from the least wealthy to the most wealthy, increasing inequality. Anyway I may not be representing it correctly but it’s very good. I am going to rewatch soon ( I am just trying to learn a bit of economics at present).

by HW2 | 5th Dec 22, 10:55pm 1670234120

Gee Independent_Observer

Here you point your finger at property investors.

Hence my disgust... at property investors

But elsewhere you justify your investment cred saying you are a property investor

Which one is it?

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 11:31am 1670193070

Good attempt at spin Pete!!!

by bw | 5th Dec 22, 11:48am 1670194123

But, The Regions are doing fine! Oh, hang on....

"Bay of Plenty’s residential property sales have dropped by 41.6 per cent in one year"

But not to worry. I'm sure we'll get an update on how well Christchurch is doing.

by HouseMouse | 5th Dec 22, 1:45pm 1670201126

‘The Man’ must be laughing all the way to the bank.

He was a Spruiker who has actually been proven right!

by Mrs The Point | 5th Dec 22, 3:33pm 1670207605

He didn't call himself that, you know. Other people named him that. True story.

by The Black Swan | 5th Dec 22, 11:56am 1670194572

The refixing tsunami is fast approaching now, all time highs from late 2021 wont be reached again until the 2050's.

by stefanblaise | 5th Dec 22, 1:22pm 1670199750

There's always a recession for someone. The only close thing to a free lunch is diversification.

by malamah | 5th Dec 22, 1:32pm 1670200371

Yep - for many people incomes have been trending backwards against cost of housing/rent for the last decade. Heart goes out to those whose savings were going backwards against house prices, so doubled down with mum and dad and finally bought into the peak only to be hit by the R hammer.

by Averageman | 5th Dec 22, 1:42pm 1670200937

And another .75 OCR in the wings for Feb 23 and more to come after that. Perhaps the speculative message is starting to get thru?

by donny11 | 5th Dec 22, 2:05pm 1670202341

If not the "speculative message" then a phone call from the bank generally does the trick.

by 7jai | 5th Dec 22, 2:47pm 1670204859

People have jobs because there are problems and issues to fix. This will ensure Robertson, Jacinda, and Orr will have jobs forever in perpetuity! Our guardian angels!

-7

by House-Hunter | 5th Dec 22, 2:59pm 1670205543

Reckon this will be worse than Ireland. Will we see a oil price shock next year

by Nzdan | 5th Dec 22, 5:35pm 1670214935

Peak Prices 2007: Dublin 430k EURO ($700k NZD), Ireland 310k EURO ($500k NZD).
- http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/media/press-releases/2006/31-01-200…
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble
Average Annual Income from wages 2007: 45k EURO ($73K NZD)
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/416212/average-annual-wages-ireland…
The mortgage interest rate rose from 3.49% in 2005 to 5.51% in 2008 and then dropped sharply to 3.46% in 2009. Over the following four years the rate gradually increased to 4.36% in 2013 followed by a drop to 3.28% in 2014.
- https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/mip2014/economy/….

Just have to look at how our numbers compare.

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 7:19am 1670264340

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-yorks-zombie-office-towers-teet…; In more colloquial terms, a developer quipped that some owners, accustomed to holding properties for years, had not yet “seen Jesus” — but they would.

Ashley Church has seen our Lord, Jesus Christ!.