A wee drop in activity at the latest residential property auctions

Property / news

Fewer properties on offer, fewer selling under the hammer at the latest auctions

20th May 23, 8:50am by Greg Ninness

There was a slight drop in activity at the latest residential property auctions, with fewer properties on offer and fewer selling under the hammer.

Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 194 residential properties around the country over the week from 13-19 May, compared to 221 the previous week, a decline of 12%.

Of those, 77 or 40% were sold under the hammer, compared to 96 sales (43%) the previous week.

However while fewer properties were sold, prices appeared slightly firmer, with 37% of the properties that sold fetching prices that were equal to or above their rating valuations, compared to 28% the previous week.

In the major auction centres where at least a dozen properties were on the block, the sales rates ranged from 30% on Auckland's North Shore to 52% in Christchurch.

The table below has the district-by-district results, and details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices and rating valuations of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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162 Comments

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 1:14pm 1684545267

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

Labeling this a crash is certainly causing some debate. What's notable is the word "crash" and "crashing" is now appearing in mainstream media.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 9:11am 1684530685

"the sky's falling" - countless wannabe prophets, every day for millenia.

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 9:17am 1684531044

Good point. For those who bought in 20/21 - the sky has certainly fallen. BTW, its spelt "millennia"

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 9:25am 1684531523

It hasn't really, outside of your imagination. Most people who bought houses then will be quietly enjoying them.

You sound like someone who can't handle less than chipper news too well and needs to catastrophize it. Or someone who feeds off bad news, hard to tell.

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 9:26am 1684531573

....and you sound like HW2 - enough said :)

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 9:40am 1684532458

I probably do to someone trying to sell terminally bad news.

by JimmyJames | 20th May 23, 10:27am 1684535250

Why do you perceive falling house prices as bad news and the “sky to be falling”? It’s just a market. Why do you have such an extremely bias and emotive take on price movements?

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 12:21pm 1684542112

I don't at all, Im making light of poppy-perma-doom

Up, down, left right, makes no difference to me. Tide comes in, tide goes out.

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 12:41pm 1684543267

So you do see falling prices as a good thing, a reset from the insane level of prosperity, that up until Nov-21, was sold to FHB's as the norm? Only the heavily vested would be so quick to shoot the messenger..... 🎯

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 12:38pm 1684543102

It's not a relevant topic for this thread.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 12:55pm 1684544113

That's your narrative there chief. I wouldn't have advised anyone to take up any substantive financial responsibilities since March 2020. But most will probably do just fine.

This is a time of significant financial upheaval. I feel still with many years left in front of it. Values of many things are up in the air.

Medium term, I don't see too many things resetting or reverting. Some will fall in the meantime, for you to dance over.

by J.C. | 20th May 23, 1:14pm 1684545266

I wouldn't have advised anyone to take up any substantive financial responsibilities since March 2020.

Perfect time to have loaded up on Etheruem and the ol' rat poison. Min 10x on ETH to now.

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 1:28pm 1684546091

Some will use what's already occurred as basis for convincing others their "business nous" I guess.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 1:59pm 1684547975

R-P

I guess

Yes you do guess. Those who like what they do, are already successful

by tothepoint | 20th May 23, 10:38pm 1684579113

Most people with higher wealth/income in our communities own a significant amount of property.

In that sense, wealth/income and property closely correlate.

Some argue it's a measure of success. At the least, it's a measure of prosperity.

Often, property ownership is seen as a reward for hard work.......

For others, however, preaching doom and gloom is the favoured approach...... in the same way that some vicars derive pleasure from preaching "hell, fire and brimstone". Brian Tamaki of Destiny "Church" uses a similar approach.

TTP

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 3:01pm 1684551702

"I bargained with life for a penny, And Life would pay no more, However I begged at evening When I counted my scanty store. . .

For Life is a just employer, She gives you what you ask, But once you have set the wages, Why, you must bear the task.

I worked for a menial’s hire, Only to learn, dismayed, That any wage I had asked of Life, Life would have willingly paid.”

Unfortunately the person only realised later they could've gotten more from life

by Amokk | 20th May 23, 6:01pm 1684562507

by tothepoint | 20th May 23, 4:12pm 1684555928

Most people with higher wealth/income in our communities own a significant amount of property"

And therein lies the core of the problem facing our society....greed by any other name is still greed.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 2:29pm 1684549780

That's generally how you'd determine some level of acumen.

by tothepoint | 20th May 23, 4:11pm 1684555879

I guess [Retired-Poppy]

With all due respect, Retired-Poppy, "I gas" rings truer than "I guess".

TTP

by JimmyJames | 20th May 23, 1:35pm 1684546511

Correct, but there you go again. So then falling house prices is not “doom” as you say it is just the inevitable and welcome movement of the tide going out to balance the fact that the tide had come in. Not “doom”.

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 3:20pm 1684552811

It is only doom if you are over extended against the housing market. So you can immediately tell who this is because if anyone suggested that prices might fall, they will reveal their bias by trying to bully and discredit anyone who holds such a view.

'You are such a doom merchant. Stop being so negative'.

Which is code for, 'I can't afford (financially) for you to be correct with your views'

This causes severe cognitive dissonance, because part of their brain is telling them that these negative views might be right, while the other part is saying that the ramifications of them being true are far too painful for them to cognitively process. So they're in mental denial to that plausible/possible outcome.

https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.7463157761eba62389d069dae345da97?rik=NBO9DP…

My take - house prices could go up. House prices could go down. What is in the best interests of the country and future first home buyers - from a position of overall financial and social stability for the nation as a whole? That is house prices falling further. Will that happen - we will find out! I just wouldn't want to be gambling my financial security on it right now as there is far too much risk/unknowns.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 4:13pm 1684555989

Just to clarify, I don't agree with poppy's constant assertions NZ occupies some specially bad place. To the contrary, I find NZ to occupy a fairly lucky position. These are however, not the luckiest of times. He wants to dance on graves or something, more fool him.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 11:04am 1684537452

....and you sound like HW2 - enough said :)

It must seriously bug you that after the market "crashing" for 18 months that we are still prospering in business.

Maybe you will be right and we will be broke oneday and you can claim victory. Or the market will head back up and you'll have egg all over yourself. Lets see

I will also say that I dont need the market to lift in order to do well. So I'm picking the latter will happen and you'll be needing tissues to clean yourself.

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 3:38pm 1684553889

"Maybe you will be right and we will be broke oneday and you can claim victory. Or the market will head back up and you'll have egg all over yourself. Lets see"

I'm amazed that you've got to the point now HW2 where you are saying:

1. If I'm right then you will have egg on your face aka 'I'm right and I told you so'

2. I'm wrong and will be bankrupt.

This is very digital thinking. Either I'm right and you're wrong, or your right and I'm bankrupt.

Quite amazing! Sounds like you are in a very leveraged position to be in such a desperate state to need to be right. i.e. if I get this wrong, then I'm bankrupt (what you said to me last night). Sounds like you're at a casino, not trying to run some type of risk managed business operation.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 4:05pm 1684555511

Offering hope to the hopeless R-P in this case, and previously to another commenter

However I and others are sensing there is a change underway. Its early and not fully showing. Its only a matter of time so am just getting ready for the announcements.

There's no need to do the doomie stuff and bring out the hex

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 5:06pm 1684559195

The announcement came today!!

On your very much liked and revered Onewoof radio show - where the 1ZB Announcer constantly mentioned the Crashing NZ housing market.....Wow. Such truths from Onewoof....never seen this before.

It would have sent shivers of bejesusment through the property collecting overleveraged!!

Maybe 1ZB announcer/host will be cancelled next week??

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 5:27pm 1684560476

NewstalkZB

Get it right please old man, you're well out of touch. Dont tell me your name is Bob, a total and complete idiot

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 11:12pm 1684581155

Soz, our favorite leaky no 2s, HotWater bottle:)

I have touched a raw nerve on the Crashing words used on the "NewstalkZB" OneWoof show....... you cannot find any safe space now to rest up and believe the sunsetting Ponzi housing market will reanimate from the dead!

Perhaps you may consider productive investing in your future plans? Instead of poor people ratbox farming ?

- Just a thought.

by Zachary Smith | 21st May 23, 6:45am 1684608343

Perhaps you may consider productive investing in your future plans? Instead of poor people ratbox farming ?

A couple of agendas revealed here. Can we just stay on topic? This thread is about auctions not your pathetic and ill-considered social justice agenda.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 5:50am 1684605049

- Just a thought

Thanks for that

Its just that you take one fact, such as the Newstalk commentator Tim Beveridge, referencing a "crash", and then you skew it, taking it out of context. When he was just quoting something that had come up in the budget by treasury. Tim himself made the point he didn't hold that view. But he did want to question the guest as to his perspective and why.

So I see what you did to create hype, and well done to you. Although I am open minded to various possibilities I won't be running with the idea

Over To You

by Zachary Smith | 21st May 23, 6:53am 1684608817

I'm not sure why they are making such a big deal out of the word "crash" Most landlords expected a crash when COVID hit and we were actually concerned when the opposite happened. "Spruikerism" depends on slow and steady price increases that largely keep up with inflation.

A house price that keeps up with inflation means that a rental property remains a conservative investment as rents increase over time. It is thus leagues ahead of term deposits as an investment vehicle. Cash is the poorest of investments. Sure property may be leveraged at first but over time in this scenario it achieves a positive yield.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 7:42am 1684611758

Sure property may be leveraged at first but over time in this scenario it achieves a positive yield

Agreed

by NZGecko | 21st May 23, 11:07pm 1684667236

Thanks Zac and HW:)

Its great to see that these terrible auction results!!

Many are being saved from themselves in overpaying by vast sums in May 2023. This shows buyer reluctance to overpay at today ridiculous prices, good on them! Terrible clearance rates will go on, until buyers totally capitulate, its coming!!

This will likely change once yet another 20% to 30% drop occurs, as this sustained downdraft takes place, rolls out slow mo, over the next 2 to 4 years.

I listened intently to the Onewoof yesterday Tim and Queenstown REA guy spit bowling the Market. OTHERS SOULD LISTEN TOO!!

May I assist: Best Onewoof ever.......

Mark Harris: Where's the property market headed? (newstalkzb.co.nz)

Announcer Tim is a great guy and I pay attention to his well thought out missives. MANY DO!

It did not play out well for giving any skerik confidence to buyers in the housing market!! The Onewoof guys will be laying a formal complaint come Monday?? think so!

If any spruiker was paying close attention and picked up as I did (and hundreds of thousands would have as well) when Tim first mentioned the PROPERTY CRASH term, I could feel the QTwon Real Estate guy squirm and writhe and his first attempt to hose down the term began, then he was in denial.

Tim then, holy hell, mentioned Crash and Crash and Crash again over the national airwaves!! Wow.

Tim is now slated for holy Sainthood - as he saves many gumby 2023 buyers from buying at any housing auction this year or two - until at least the next 20% drop occurs.

Expect a few more % to peel of the Housing market over the next month or 3!!

Good work Tim and Newstalks Onewoof team:) :)

by Averageman | 21st May 23, 4:46pm 1684644363

Damn Mr Southerbys QTown had all the bullish lines...

"Feels like the bottom to me, Queenstown performing differently, Lots of money around, Will swing quickly, Southern Lakes driven domestically and via Sydney". And on and on...

Was talking to a retired banker yesterday. He has been thru a few crashes before. He would not be surprised to see OCR get to 12% by years end.

While Im in in the bears group..... yikes.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 5:54pm 1684648457

Hi A-man,

He would not be surprised to see OCR get to 12% by years end.

Where do you get this stuff, retired for a reason.

All around the world, CPI and PPI are firmly dropping but NZ is going meteoric literally

Wow. I know you get away with comments like this unchecked because of the DGM bias

by NZGecko | 21st May 23, 10:45am 1684622719

Its great to see that these auction results, still show buyer reluctance to overpay at today ridiculous prices. Terrible clearance rates!!

This will likely change once yet another 20% to 30% drop occurs, as this sustained downdraft takes place, rolls out slow mo, over the next 2 to 4 years.

Then your old pal, Forever Spruiker Tones A, talk of always emerging greens shoots, may finally be true.

Sadly for ole Tones, this will be after he led many financially astray, poorhouse via speculation, after a 40 to 50% housing crash.

Bob is the frequent economic caller/commentator on NewstalkZB and Tim really likes him.......gives him a fair suck on the talkback time sav.

Bob gets cut through to the populace and gave pause to the current home buyer and brings FOOP front and centre, to the table.

I realise that Bobs seasoned view is the putrid vinegar in the Landhoaders nightly wine........ I see why your type detests him.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 10:55am 1684623349

Ok gecko, you talk of the sustained downdraft, then I'll bet you. You take the overs (2 to 4 years) before price increases and the Forever Spruiker Tones A gets his wish.

And I will take the unders (0 to 2 years) before those green shoots start sprouting

Ok? What's the prize.

by NZGecko | 21st May 23, 6:14pm 1684649652

I normal love a good bet, I do!

It would hardly be Christian to take still more from you (finacncial or pride) when your current and future financial gashing injuries will have you needing to lick those wounds for some time.....

The only win I seek, is that the FHBs get a fair and reasonable affordable entry point into the Kiwi dream of home ownership.

Instead of being constantly outbid for many years by tax system assisted vultures.

This is a win NZ society can bathe in and champion?

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 6:05pm 1684562731

To the seasoned, none of what's happening now need come as a surprise. It has happened before and we survived; "In the early 1970s, New Zealand experienced a rapid increase in house prices caused by, among other things, a swift run-up in immigration and a shortage of builders and building materials. Between 1971 and 1974 real house prices increased by 60%" From 1974 to 1980, house prices fell by around 40% in real terms. By the end of the decade houses were no more valuable than they had been at the start"

Could prices bottom out at 2013 levels?

https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-ho…

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 6:14pm 1684563248

The key difference this time around is that "DTI" measures could be deployed when we reach the bottom.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 11:47am 1684626457

Poppy you need to look at the whole picture if you want to get an understanding

A. The first home buyer in 1970 with 1000 dollars - 20% deposit

B. The sharemarket ( or fixed interest) investor who rents and has $1000 capital

C. The renter who lives pay-cheque to pay-cheque with zero capital

I'm very interested in your numbers. I think you will learn why young kiwis resolve to buy a home and why old kiwis who failed to buy a home, have many regrets.

I don't know if the model works as successfully for fhb on the West Coast of the SI. Though virtually every other place in NZ is included with the Auckland experience to some degree.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 9:53am 1684533208

Good point. For those who bought in 20/21 - the sky has certainly fallen. BTW, its spelt "millennia"

Boaring. As in wild boar

You dont know what you're talking about, making wild generalised statements.

Enough said

by J.C. | 20th May 23, 1:18pm 1684545517

"the sky's falling" - countless wannabe prophets, every day for millenia.

Good to keep an open mind. Perhaps you're just trying to emotionally comfort yourself by having to drown out what you don't want to hear. Understandable.

I don't have any accurate barometer but you could be in the denial stage of the market psychology cheat sheet.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 3:11pm 1684552279

Good to keep an open mind.

Like many things, we probably differ on defining open-mindedness.

by J.C. | 20th May 23, 4:24pm 1684556640

Sure. For example, you could say "the idea that house prices double every 7-10 years is a universal truth".

I cannot prove that this is not a universal truth. Therefore, I have to accept the probability that this indeed is a universal truth.

That is a perfect example of open-mindedness.

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 7:36pm 1684568200

It's an example of a strawman argument you just had with yourself.

Open-mindedness is the willingness to search actively for evidence against one's favored beliefs, plans, or goals, and to weigh such evidence fairly when it is available.

by J.C. | 20th May 23, 9:55pm 1684576512

Open-mindedness is the willingness to search actively for evidence against one's favored beliefs, plans, or goals, and to weigh such evidence fairly when it is available.

That's actually what I'm saying. If you cannot disprove something, then you cannot rule it out. I recommend you read about falsifiability - the ability for a statement/theory/hypothesis to be shown to be false,

I cannot disprove the 7-10 year theory, therefore there I cannot say that it doesn't exist. But it also works the other way - you, Granny Herald, Ashley, etc cannot disprove the null hypothesis.

by Pa1nter | 21st May 23, 12:06am 1684584377

That's actually what I'm saying. If you cannot disprove something, then you cannot rule it out.

It's not what you're saying. Your interpretation of open mindedness is "don't discard ideas you can't 100% disprove". Actual open mindedness involves using or evaluating new data against existing stated norms or facts.

Your version gets used to help keep the possibility of the supernatural alive - we don't know what caused that noise in the night, why not a ghost? I mean, we can't rule it out 100%.....

The real version is why most of us don't believe the world is 6000 years old still.

by Nzdan | 21st May 23, 12:10am 1684584639

And going back to J.C.'s example:

....."The idea that house prices double every 7-10 years is a universal truth".

I cannot prove that this is not a universal truth. Therefore, I have to accept the probability that this indeed is a universal truth.

Open mindedness would explore relative data and find plausible correlations and logic. E.g. House prices doubled every 7 - 10 years when mortgage rates fell from 22% to 2.5% and household incomes went from predominately 1 to 2 full time workers.

by Pa1nter | 21st May 23, 1:06am 1684587975

Well, that's you applying open mindedness to his example, to try and determine causality. You managed to find two correlative factors.

It's not really a rule I'd push as universal (it's JC's rule not mine). We don't know what interest rates and inflation are really going to do for the foreseeable future, and we don't know how many other economic issues are going to come out of the pipe. What does seem likely is that:

a) costs to produce new units of housing stock will only continue to inflate in the short to medium term (10-20 years)

and

b) the supply of housing in NZ will fail to meet it's demand over that same sort of period

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 6:02am 1684605735

Nzdan

House prices TRIPLED in ONE year, 1973. I don't think it was because interest rates dropped but instead because there was a housing crisis or squeeze. Following immigration from the islands

I know that doesn't help your theory

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 7:04am 1684609486

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 6:02am 1684605735 - House prices TRIPLED in ONE year, 1973. I don't think......

LOL! - Link please - thanks

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 7:07am 1684609677

Did they have a fire alarm drill at the Retirement Village this morning.

Maybe you should believe it, though probably too young to remember. As am I, but I did some research and have seen proof.

How do you think Auckland houses went from 5k to 150k in 15 years. Yet you scoff.

Edit: I see you've edited to at least ask a question instead your previous out of hand dismissal

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 7:08am 1684609699

Link please - thanks

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 7:17am 1684610277

Why do you need to make stuff up? Between 1971 and 1974 real house prices increased by 60%.

https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-ho…

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 7:35am 1684611333

I was referring to nominal but I'm glad you answered your own question and looked up that graph.

Contract the search timeline to 1973 and see what you find. And because others can also take a look and see the claim I made is proved. Prices did not actually drop back in 1974 and beyond they kept increasing, though there could have been price falls late 70s etc

I dont get how you dont have any understanding of something that happened in your lifetime albeit when you were still young. Perhaps you spent all your time in the great outdoors so well done.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 7:12am 1684609963

Btw poppy

If you see that around the year 1967, that houses doubled in price, heads up but that wasn't due to inflation

🤣🤣

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 7:22am 1684610525

OH but on planet HW2, somehow house prices TRIPLED in ONE year, 1973 - lol!

Thanks for the morning laugh!

by Nzdan | 21st May 23, 11:37am 1684625874

In your hypothetical scenario, I would add to the theory that lending conditions may have eased. I.e. the banks may have been applying their own debt to income ratios of sorts, and these were relaxed. Immigration from the islands wouldn't normally involve suitcases of cash pushing up the average house price threefold in a year.

Anything can be explained with sound logic, instead of defaulting to the idea that the housing market is some divine force.

by J.C. | 21st May 23, 6:52am 1684608755

Your version gets used to help keep the possibility of the supernatural alive

Sure. I cannot deny the supernatural. For that reason and for the scientific nature of falsifiability, I am agnostic towards religion rather than being atheist.

You; Granny Herald, and Ashley cannot disprove that 7-10 year theory exists. Therefore you have to accept that the the weaknesses of your universal truth and your beliefs are not based on fact and any kind of scientific process and thought.

And here is the rub. If you cannot accept the idea of falsifiability, that fits in neatly with what I originally pointed out about you possibly being in the denial stage of the mkt psychology cheat sheet.

by Pa1nter | 21st May 23, 7:19am 1684610371

Except I am not making a case for a 7-10 year theory. It's not something I'd promote or defend.

What you have done, is experienced someone opposing your views, and decided to conflate them with the NZHerald, and this Ashley Church person, because it's the laziest, easiest way for you to try and dismiss what I'm saying. I can only be a spruicker, because the alternative is harder to address.

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 8:52am 1684615938

by Pa1nter | 20th May 23, 12:55pm "I wouldn't have advised anyone to take up any substantive financial responsibilities since March 2020"

On this forum, when did you warn others not to?

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 10:24am 1684621476

On this forum, when did you warn others not to?

Well we know that you warned others not to. For 8 or 9 long years in fact, six of them on this forum

And now eventually half right.

🤣🤣

by Retired-Poppy | 21st May 23, 12:25pm 1684628710

HW2, so you also thought that Pa1nter wouldn't be capable of answering my question. That makes two of us....

What does this tell ya?

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 12:31pm 1684629061

It tells me you were down spruiking if there is such a word for 9 long years.

The article you posted from 2016 thought that prices were 40 percent too high and should go back to 2012 pricing.

Of course the ones today say that prices are too high and should go back to 2017- 2019

You DGM guys are always playing catch-up

by Amokk | 21st May 23, 1:31pm 1684632706

I’m sure deep deep deep down you must have some care for society as a whole and can understand why things shouldn’t/can’t carry on as they have. Don’t you?

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 1:56pm 1684634202

Amokk using the emotive trick to justify house price drops. So in other words, in previous generations when people built houses and made a profit, they weren't "caring for society". Was JA a caring person as she told the country that NZers expect home prices to INCREASE.

Are construction and building supply companies caring for society if they increase prices. What about supermarkets increasing prices or is it better they go out of business.

In your opinion, how much does the value of the housing stock have to reduce by for NZ to be "caring for society"

Would "caring for society" mean providing as many houses as required. If so, then councils could be accused of not caring for society when they refrain from providing infrastructure

And when you say "caring for society" does that include everyone except landlords

by Amokk | 21st May 23, 6:12pm 1684649554

Nope - just the greedy fuktards who think buying multiple properties, pushing up rents, crying when their tax rinsing is removed, threatening to (pick one)raise rents, keep the house empty or chuck it on Airbnb is a great and altruistic thing to do from the bottom of their dead cold hearts. Read the room champ - 'investors' on all the social media groups are starting to slowly cotton on that all is not well - once they start having their mortgages roll over and the bank has to have some words about their vanishing equity.....well not much can you do except try and find more money to proper it up or sell at whatever they can get. Queue the sheep panicking and so it begins.

Suck it up Houseworks - you and I will never agree but who cares - houses will not keep climbing in price for a long long long time and NZ will be much the better for it.

by J.C. | 21st May 23, 10:08am 1684620495

Except I am not making a case for a 7-10 year theory. It's not something I'd promote or defend.

it's am example to demonstrate what falsifiability is. Are you aware of Karl Popper?

What you have done, is experienced someone opposing your views, and decided to conflate them with the NZHerald, and this Ashley Church person,

My views about falsifiability and the different stages in mkt psychology? You can 'oppose' them as much as you like. Not sure why you would.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 9:18am 1684531107

Links?

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 9:25am 1684531505

"House prices are likely to continue crashing until next year, the Treasury is predicting in today’s Budget" https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-2023-house-prices-to-fall-21-per-c…

Zachary, feel free to complain to Granny Herald - lol!

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 9:29am 1684531790

All good. Don't read too much into my comment. I just think if you are going to claim something it would carry some weight if you had some references.

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 10:37am 1684535837

I provided reference material the last time you questioned me. Perhaps you wrongly assumed (hoped) NZ Herald had edited it out in the meantime😁

Apology accepted.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 10:58am 1684537108

No need to apologise.

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 12:47pm 1684543676

The Onewoof owners of the Herald will be Furious with the Granny H outlier writers, for coming close to using the REA Kryptonite Cxxxx deathword.

There will be slamming on tables and marching orders issued for the errant herald staff that let out the true but deadly Real Estate Deathword.

New Zealand Housing Market Crash Crash Crash Crash Crash......there we go.

The Ai market makers/fund algorithms will now sell all the funds housing stocks in the next few minutes! Before the oldschool, slow people without computer crunching ability have time to react.

by Rob Reid | 20th May 23, 1:13pm 1684545236

So many uses of the C word,

and other profanities such as "sell".

I proclaim NZGecko the leader of our DGM death cult,

And Granny Herald can go to hell.

by NZGecko | 21st May 23, 12:00pm 1684627203

Just doing a Public Service Announcement.

Saving the novice house buyers from sending all the deposit money into Oblivion for 3x straight years now. Only 3 or 4 more years to be very cautious and bid 30% less, or walk away.

A numpty (new) buyer and their cash deposit are soon separated! Ye have been warned!

6 years in the average crash: NZ are winning at the biggest losses so far:

Imgur: The magic of the Internet

Saint Gecko.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 12:23pm 1684628616

As I said to Poppy above. You need to look at the whole picture if you want to get an understanding

A. The first home buyer in 1970 with 1000 dollars - 20% deposit

B. The sharemarket ( or fixed interest) investor who rents and has $1000 capital

C. The renter who lives pay-cheque to pay-cheque with zero capital

I'm very interested in your numbers. I think you will learn why young kiwis resolve to buy a home and why old kiwis who failed to buy a home, have many regrets.

Did you buy a home NZ Gecko, live courtesy of the taxpayer or another option.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:27am 1684531630

Briefly, before being ordered to be removed in the headline !

Naughty naughty person at the Herald who used the word ‘crash’. No bonus for them !

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 10:12am 1684534374

They have to maintain the montage 🤣

I do always genuinely enjoy the 4pm saturday oneroof slot on zb. Especially if Ashley or Tony is in the chair.

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 12:03pm 1684540991

How can "BeQuick/BuyNow" AC and Tony ....still appear in public??........The temerity of these Toads!!

- Without attracting throngs of destitute, rotten tomato armed, forlorn home buyers, who hung off every word of these "houses always double duo" and then overpayed by 50% on housing, based on what these housing market Oracles spouted ???

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 11:21am 1684538473

Crash.

by nguturoa | 20th May 23, 9:42am 1684532533

What is Yellen saying behind closed doors. And why US doesn't want to keep spending more? They are the pinnacle of all currencies? What are they worried about?

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 9:26am 1684531613

An interesting metric that is not revealed in these statistics is the changing ratio of houses that receive bids. If the number of houses that receive bids increases it shows more interest in house buying. I haven't done any serious checking yet but I got the impression that a higher percentage of houses received bids this week.

by ShoreThing | 20th May 23, 9:31am 1684531897

Ray White publish these stats, it appears you are correct - more registered bidders, more auctions with bidders, higher clearance rates.

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:10am 1684534255

Jeez dude!? Talk about spinning the truth.

In you look at these stats, they are dominated by auckland and Christchurch sales. Thus you should have said...

"Ray White publish these stats, it appears you are correct - more registered bidders, more auctions with bidders, higher clearance rates IN Auckland and Christchurch."

Be more accurate with your comments or you could create a " dumɓ bastard buying frenzy" DBBF

by Jamin | 20th May 23, 10:39am 1684535967

What you talking about? Everything’s heading to the moon. Did you not see Queenstowns 100% clearance rate above?

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 11:28am 1684538899

Mate! So the REA green shoots are non-existent, Nada.

So the next Spruiker tactic is to look for a sign of whats called a "maybe bud" or just a "colouration change on the stem"........wow clutching at straws much!!!

Desperado.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 11:35am 1684539352

Good link ST

Plenty of upside if only 69 percent have active bidders

by Juzz | 20th May 23, 10:00am 1684533613

Could be, we made an offer this week. Another buyer had already made an and despite our low ball the agent got more from the other party as it became multi-offer and they upped their offer. Lesson learned, even lowballing can push prices up. Oh well OCR is very likely to go up in a few days so not bothered either way on that property.

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 12:04pm 1684541062

You dodged a real bullet. OCR to and past 6%+ its a lock.

That buyer will REALLY wish the bag was left for you to hold, when they are down 20% next year!

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:30am 1684535456

Remember these stats do not represent a true record off aĺl auctions in NZ. My analysis is it may represent about 30% of national auctions and about 15% of agencies.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:27am 1684531668

Boom times are back, be quick

by ShoreThing | 20th May 23, 9:29am 1684531768

Took a quick scroll through the auctions in Auckland that had sold and only found two that sold below the owners purchase price:

4A Dapple Place sold for $960k, bought in 2021 for $1.038m

1 Gatland Road sold for $780k, bought in 2017 for $904k

Plenty of sales at auctions still well above purchase price, although the gains are relatively small if purchased in more recent periods. Many passed in though so we can only tell that bidding didn't get to levels the vendor desired.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 9:37am 1684532239

Also it looks like those two houses have qualities that make it a bit more difficult to get a premium price during a downturn. The Drury one looks very interesting. Did you check out the photos?

by ShoreThing | 20th May 23, 9:40am 1684532457

Yes, Dapple Place has monolithic cladding and Gatland Road is a textbook rot box, looks like it hasn't been occupied in much longer than the six years the owner has owned it - one would hope, at least.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:41am 1684532478

Yes high chance it’s a leaker

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:42am 1684532566

The Drury one isn’t a bad buy as a redevelopment site

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:14am 1684534499

Stop spinning the buĺlshit. You are talking a localized phenomenon as a national issue.

One Auckland swallow don't make a national summer.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 10:18am 1684534685

We're only interested in the glorious global city of Auckland.

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:22am 1684534949

Wel say that. Auckland is an outlier if you look at aĺl the other areas except elcheapo Christchurch

by Nifty1 | 20th May 23, 9:35am 1684532111

Prices firming, starting to see that abit more...

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:36am 1684532208

Perhaps a little but let’s see where things sit over a few months rather than over one very narrow window of time.

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:18am 1684534708

And a small area of the market.

FFS you guys analyze data wrongly and spin it badly

by NZGecko | 21st May 23, 4:42am 1684600978

Yep a suckers rally.......or a transitory suckers blip.

Ps.....don't be left holding the bag as interest rates go stubbornly oast 7%. Ouchy ouch!

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:15am 1684534554

Where.?

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 10:25am 1684535145

Firming in your myopic optics of one area in one city. Just detail it better

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 3:30pm 1684553409

Everyone should also add their 'I reckon' views as well.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 9:35am 1684532131

Home loan rates may rise after ‘expansive’ budget:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-home-loan-rates-may-rise-after-e…

by Smudge02 | 20th May 23, 10:43am 1684536209

I think they will and would not be surprised to see some banks move soon. We have a Govt and RBNZ at complete odds, one trying desperately to win an election at any cost and lighting inflationary fires along the way, and the other desperately running around trying to put fires out.

If Orr goes 50bps next time around things may well get very interesting.

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 11:11am 1684537891

Grasbing at straws with madness and desperation!

One blimp in a poor set of data info and your buying.

Bloody Muppets!

Stop buying the spin and use ya noggin!

3 months of accurate upturn may be a signal not one week of bad data.

But hey fill ya leaky boots.

Bloody clown show!

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 11:17am 1684538229

We are witnessing a descent into madness.

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 11:35am 1684539313

Yes. Its new, numpty buyers becoming bag holders.

by Nifty1 | 20th May 23, 11:50am 1684540232

Shaft is clearly demonstrating some madness and desperation this morning... take 5 and chill out.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 11:59am 1684540740

He should be at the NZ boat show, ogling the beauties

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 1:49pm 1684547354

Firstly I'd rather keep my lagoon 40 in the med than have one in NZ.

But back on point...

I'm the only sane person here. The rest of you run with a "property buyer hair trigger" on a gun with a dodgy scope!

Buy buy buy buy buy buy will cause a temporary rise but when the " fiscal "cluster calamity"" of this governments poor decisions hit the windscreen. No amount of bars bugs will help you Muppet$... but.. we warned you guys.

"Enjoy your winter buying of discontent "

And for me I have more to gain from more morons on the "buy buy buy mortgagee sales outlook " than most so why would I be talking you dudes Down from your hang man noose?

by IT GUY | 20th May 23, 3:25pm 1684553123

Lagoons are heavy and crap, buy a custom built for speed. Lagoons flex to much in 35+ knots

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 3:59pm 1684555184

Don't be out in 35 knot gales IT GUY, small pleasure craft have a threshold. Sink and you'll know all about it.

This land lubber needs to service his jetskis, I hear there's still a lot of good fish around

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 4:15pm 1684556134

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 12:38pm - It's not a relevant topic for this thread! 🚢 lol!

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 4:29pm 1684556998

MAN OVERBOARD!

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 4:49pm 1684558172

Ha-ha-ha :)

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 5:11pm 1684559515

You're right pre 2016 are heavy.

But my 2022 is a beauty. Perfect platform for the med. And most of the time you motor more than sail. Especially east of Italy.

https://www.cata-lagoon.com/en/40

by IT GUY | 20th May 23, 9:52pm 1684576323

Good med boats agreed, in the pacific I think there is too much movement if offshore for long periods. My experience is that none of the cupboards shut if older then 2-3 years or serious offshore miles. I just prefer to go fast in a cat or slow in a double ender...

by Sluggy | 21st May 23, 4:56am 1684601774

There are plenty of earlier boats in the market that sail very well. We had a FP 40, even in the Hauraki gulf I got that thing bending pretty well in a 25 knot breeze with a decent swell, you could feel it twisting. We now own a 2011 Nautitech, much better, no flybridge, boom down low, 3m less air draft with more sail available... Sure an Outremer would be nice but $$$

by Caughtinthemiddle | 20th May 23, 11:52am 1684540322

The numbers selling at auction are very small. Extrapolating % changes on such small population data and then trying to interpret “market turns” will inevitably lead to poor conclusions. The HPI data takes into account all sales. Auction sales are only a part of the landscape so only commenting on % above cv for auctions just skews the data further. It’s also important to note that Auckland CV does not represent the peak, that was 5 months later. Achieving CV still represents a drop from peak.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 12:05pm 1684541131

The government is going to lose some serious GST revenue from the construction slump over the next couple of years. If say 20,000 fewer homes are built per year, that will be a revenue drop of circa $2 billion per year.

once you factor in further gst revenue lost from all the services contracting, and then lost income and business tax, we could easily be talking $4-5 billion + down in revenue per annum

by NZGecko | 20th May 23, 12:59pm 1684544380

So should National get in (its a maybe, just) the collapsing tax take will be in effect, from this overdue slump in general business.

Can they really keep their promise to give the Landlording class, the tax breaks they promised this small, already well healed group?

Probably not.

The everyday working and salary/waged "taxed on everything types" and non asset hoarding class, would revolt.

If they did, they would need to borrow much more heavily and this will push up Govt borrowing costs and % paid on the more risky NZ Govt bonds, downgrade our sovereign risk and push up interest rates for all. An effective death spiral for debt fueled asset prices will occur, that will see the already crash in play, accelerate at twice the current gravity to Earth pull.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 1:04pm 1684544645

Note Treasury forecast Govt taxation revenue to increase over the next few years….even assuming population growth and inflation I think that is heroic

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 1:50pm 1684547427

Treasury forecast🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🙄

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 5:19pm 1684559964

Not!... They are on a ill conceived building splurge while the market crashes... Mainly cheap shitters for the socially disenfranchised to ruin

The oversupply glut will crash prices and destroy communities..

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 5:37pm 1684561039

Not what?

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 5:44pm 1684561497

They've budgeted $1m each, and probably blow the budget. Those shitters are not cheap

by IT GUY | 20th May 23, 9:31pm 1684575099

indeed your eyes are open

by ex agent | 20th May 23, 1:22pm 1684545766

Rather than get personal people should be looking at the current situation we are in today. Daily costs are rising. Rates will increase for everyone on 1July and in some areas are substantial. The budget is going to cause some more inflation according to the Treasury and they know more than us about what we are currently going through in NZ inflation wise. Another big building firm has collapsed in Auckland as stated today in the Herald. One of many to do so. I am hearing about redundancies in all types of businesses. Shops on the high street are closing. A partner in a local law firm who do the lion share of the conveyancing told me this week they are only seeing 30 cent of what they used to regularly do. Overall we are in a definite downturn. Heaven forbid Orr puts the OCR up 50 per cent next week. 25 points will be bad enough. It is currently tough for many in NZ. Unfortunately many more will join them as it looks like the RB and the government are not working as a team to tame inflation which will hang around at high levels for some time to come. Give me a politician who puts the common good before achieving and retaining power and I will vote for him or her. By the way I have no allegiance to any particular party.

by Shaft | 20th May 23, 1:53pm 1684547607

Winter increases(gas, electricity, food,...),on top of OCR increasse wil sèe more increases in sales of houses and less buyers

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 2:07pm 1684548452

The RBNZ are guided by set mandates, they are and have to be seen as free from political interference. This is colliding with election year promises that will stoke inflation, further lift debt levels and the much increased interest bill along with principle repayments will be met by the tax payer. In one form or another, a wealth tax is coming.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 2:24pm 1684549475

Which building firm? I couldn’t see anything on the Herald

by gnx | 20th May 23, 2:54pm 1684551264

It’s in stuff….construct civil ltd….75 staff

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 3:01pm 1684551677

Thanks. So the brown stuff really is hitting the fan in construction as I predicted. I said May didn’t I that the pain would start to show. Building consents data way down for residential and commercial in last couple of weeks.

by Sluggy | 21st May 23, 5:09am 1684602579

I dont have a horse in the house race. But I am one of the asset owning class and have benefitted greatly from the madness over the covid years. Business wise sales are back 3 years, the brakes have come on hard in the spendathon. Unemployment will rocket over the next 6 months assuming the sales demise continues. When you look at the SME's that are funded through cheap debt backed by property I just cant see how many will survive.

We have a real house of cards on our hands. Id be interested to know how much of the housing debt is funding business/employing people. Maybe its not as bad as I think and my reckons are way off.

by Crayhunter | 20th May 23, 2:10pm 1684548617

Thanks all for your posts, its great to read what others are thinking. From my perspective as long as interest rates are rising back to pre 2008 normal i.e. 8ish% then home prices will continue to fall and likely wont hit the bottom until most existing home loans have rolled over onto the new rates. Its likely that many qualified kiwis are heading to Auz and rightfully so hence less upward pressure on our market here. I really don't think that immigrants are going to pump the market at all and to give an example I work in a reasonably high skilled job and the company I work for has just brought over a few new families from overseas (yearly incomes would likely be $300K+ combined) and they just cannot believe how 1. expensive it is to live here and 2. how expensive our homes are here. They, like most I suspect will stay the minimum get NZ citizenship then go to Australia as they don't have anything sentimental holding them here. My thoughts are to sit tight and let this one ride out for at least another 12-18 months before buying anything.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 2:16pm 1684549012

Seven years and eight months ago I made my first comment here, likely on an auction thread. Even back then many commenters were predicting doom. I would look at the results and also report on what I had observed at auctions I attended. Immediately I was met with a storm of nonsense and accusations of being a spruiker.

And today no one on this thread is seriously saying buy, buy, buy. We are just commenting that activity seems a bit more lively at the auctions which is true. Ray White reports that registered and active bidders are up by almost 50%. Clearance rate last week was 46.8% and 69.6% of properties got bids.

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 2:23pm 1684549403

2015 ish Zachary

That year was a part of a good phase. The RB brought in a policy of higher auckland LVRs I think in that year. The provinces benefited.

Next month relaxed LVRs are coming back

by Retired-Poppy | 20th May 23, 2:52pm 1684551165

Dec 03 2017 - "When the Reserve Bank announced it was relaxing mortgage lending restrictions on Wednesday, it was not a message that buying a house was becoming less risky" https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/99408539/reserve-bank-warns-its-not-ou…

HW2, a smart person won't read too much into the relaxation of LVR's. Try and avoid getting too emotional. It will only serve to cloud ones own judgement. DTI, now that's a different animal altogether. It comes with teeth!

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 3:32pm 1684553529

Hard to say what is really happening though when the first sentence of the article above is:

There was a slight drop in activity at the latest residential property auctions, with fewer properties on offer and fewer selling under the hammer.

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 3:42pm 1684554173

I'm sensing desperation from the hardcore property spruikers as well as the closet property spruikers on this comments thread. And each knows who they are.

'Must have some good news asap to stop the ship from sinking'.

Makes me think we are in a combination of the denial, return to normal and fear stages of an asset bubble. Could be wrong, as we will find out eventually either way. I just won't be bankrupt if I get a leveraged bet wrong.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 4:34pm 1684557280

This is a thread about auctions, surely we can discuss the details without being abused.

by Nifty1 | 20th May 23, 4:48pm 1684558107

"Thou shall not state anything that could suggest the market is not crashing"... #1 rule here these days.

by Averageman | 20th May 23, 8:06pm 1684569982

Not so. Constructive input is always appreciated.

In the face of what is actually happening, being written and talked about, the vested few on here continuing to spruik just look ridiculous. Even spruiker funded media are talking about the crash.

But keep it up. Every ponzi spruik post just further underlines that value of all the vested endless comments.

by Zachary Smith | 20th May 23, 9:14pm 1684574081

Rubbish. Look above at Shore Thing's constructive comment and the mad rant that it set off.

Also, what is "spruiking"? Is it spruiking to write that houses will be worth more in the future than they are right now?

by HouseMouse | 21st May 23, 10:16am 1684620985

Spruiking is talking the market up with no or limited grounds for it, for self gain.TA is doing it regularly. There’s one or two on this site who also do it regularly.

by Independent_Observer | 20th May 23, 7:08pm 1684566485

Lol - funny how its only abuse if you are on the receiving end! But constantly calling people 'doom goblins' when they discuss details is fine.

#doublestandards

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 4:45pm 1684557905

Sure are a few closet spruikers, lol

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 7:51pm 1684569082

How many here have specific financial goals with an actual amount of cash or equity by a certain date. Do you have super ambitious goals, or just willing to take it slowly and as it comes.

by Rob Reid | 20th May 23, 10:45pm 1684579546

No fancy goals for me. My wealth has fallen behind most of my generation so badly I am just in a grind to keep my head above water, with little I can do about it. I try and enjoy the little things.

by HW2 | 21st May 23, 6:41am 1684608068

Thanks for the response

On this wet weekend I've been re-reading a book from 30 years ago when I was a young tearaway and even more naive than now (added for R-Ps benefit)

Its quite crazy in its application to getting super rich in the belief that money will be drawn to you if you focus on it. Thats extreme though it may actually have helped me in my thinking and perspective since then.

Its clear that nothing is straight forward but I do think owning ones own shelter is important. As is having general money goals. I just thought it might be a good question to ask what short and longterm wealth goals are out there.

by Chaosinflesh | 21st May 23, 10:04am 1684620279

We have a goal. I don't know if it's ambitious or not, but it's affordable for us: measured by our annual salary (as X): we'll have 1X saved + another 2X in equity over the next 8 years - which is when my wife's contract finishes and when (world conditions depending) we leave for our target destination (not Aussie, btw). It's a slow disciplined grind, and these figures don't take into account all our accounts which we put money into for possible adverse future eventualities (e.g., rather than insurances we put money aside for currently unlikely but future possible things such as pet surgery and bracers), as well as future treats.

Assuming no job losses (a big if, but I return over 1000% revenue for my employer currently, the question is how much debt do they hold against that), I have forecast our cashflow for the planned remainder of our time here, with all known cashflows mapped into it. Obviously, can't do much about the unknowns, which is why we have accounts set aside for them. We also run no credit, purchase most things second hand - with big ticket items saved for, and don't scrimp on food or the kids.

by Slapheid | 21st May 23, 10:19am 1684621186

I just want to buy home for myself and my two teens. At the moment it's a balancing act between working/saving as much we can, while still trying to enjoy life and time together.

by HouseMouse | 20th May 23, 8:04pm 1684569897

Off topic, but yen gone from 86 to 80 against the NZD in one day????

Edit - data that I looked at was erroneous

by HW2 | 20th May 23, 8:10pm 1684570222

Where you getting that from

Basically the kiwi is up today against all trading partners. Esp the USD.

1NZD = 86.5 JPY

Edit: that's the news from 16 October (Monday after election, Liebour re-elected) kiwi through the floor

by HouseMouse | 21st May 23, 10:21am 1684621295

Question - what happens to the NZD and the NZ economy more broadly if the next government is Labour / Greens / Maori

by IT GUY | 20th May 23, 9:35pm 1684575316

GFC was the last time i saw that move for real