New Realestate.co.nz figures suggest the housing market fell into a hole in July

Property / news

Anyone seeing green shoots in the latest housing figures has probably been smoking them

[updated]

1st Aug 23, 5:00am by Greg Ninness

The latest data from property website Realestate.co.nz suggests the housing market fell into a hole in July.

The number of new listings received by the website slumped to a record low and total stock levels were also down.

So it was probably no surprise that the average asking price also took a tumble.

Realestate.co.nz received just 6156 new residential listings in July, which was the lowest number of new listings the website has ever received in the month of July.

The total number of residential properties available for sale on the website also declined, from 24,646 in June to 23,090 in July, which was down 12.4% on July last year.* (This figure has been corrected from the original version - see note below).

Conversely, the national average asking price (non-seasonally adjusted) was also down in July, declining from $841,688 in June to $835,292 in July.

Although that was a fairly modest decline, it is probably more significant that there was a more substantial decline in Auckland, where the average asking price dropped by almost $50,000, from $1,050,071 in June to 1,003,074 in July.

That puts the average asking price in the country's largest housing market perilously close to dropping below $1 million, which last happened in August 2020.

Auckland's average asking price has declined for five consecutive months and is now down by $124,162 (-11.0%) compared to July last year.

The above figures suggest that vendors are tending to sit on the sidelines for the time being and those that do take their properties to market are probably being more realistic with their asking prices, while buyers still have plenty of choice and are continuing to drive a hard bargain on price.

Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said buyer confidence was far from bullish.

"We are hearing from real estate agents that stabilising prices have increased buyer interest, but the data tells us that this interest hasn't necessarily resulted in more sales yet."

The latest figures will be deflating for those hoping for signs of an improvement in the market.

Although there has been a lot of industry chatter recently about the housing market showing tentative signs of recovery, anyone who looks at the above figures and sees signs of green shoots has probably been smoking them.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

*Note: Realestate.co.nz made an error in their total stock figures for July when they originally released their July data on August 1. They originally said their total stock at the end of July was 27,091 properties. They have since advised that that figure was incorrect, and the total stock figure at the end of July should have been 23,090. We have corrected the figures in this article to reflect that change.

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124 Comments

by Dgm | 1st Aug 23, 6:13am 1690827201

Could the word 'hole' be replaced with 'ABYSS'

Let's be frank, there is no end to this shambles of a housing market..

Spruikers can keep harping all they want, but they are obviously talking to themselves

by hootenany | 1st Aug 23, 6:42am 1690828948

I wish that property prices fall and fall by a lot. Since I am a pessimist a I don't think they will. Their are far too many vested interests trying to keep them up, each time their is any whiff of a sign property prices going up, there are articles hailing the property market's recovery.

The fact is house prices are insane, and will eventually fall and the longer we delay it the greater the pain will be, I want a world where the next generation can afford to have a house, not move to a model where we all rent from large corporations. This is from a person that owns 2 properties.

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 23, 10:08am 1690841333

The model that the National party wants is: Keep house prices high and do whatever it takes to keep them going higher. Let the young people move to Australia because there are an unlimited amount of immigrants that want to come here anyway.

This could be why they are so focused on roads right now because they know we are going to need them once they start packing in the people. GDP will go up but GDP per capita will fall as our exports won't grow at the rate of our population growth. Those at the top will do well though.

by HSL | 1st Aug 23, 7:46am 1690832761

The model labour, greens, maori want is to destroy democracy in the country……..so hold your nose and vote National or Act

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 23, 8:48am 1690836539

Haha so unless people vote your way democracy is destroyed?

by Home not a house | 1st Aug 23, 10:37am 1690843054

when you say democracy you obviously mean your complete control of power? Co governance is about empowering a group of people who basically had everything stole from them. I would have though this forum would have attracted a more intelligent perspective, obviously not.

The truth is national will be the ones taking the kiwi dream further away from our kids than the looney left.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 23, 11:32am 1690846340

The kids wont be able to buy a house if they dont have a job. The Left want everyone on Govt benefits. Living in Govt housing. While all the productive taxpayers move to Australia where they can get ahead.

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 23, 12:09pm 1690848545

Australia has a left wing Labour government currently. In some ways they are more left wing than us as they have a Capital Gains Tax and Stamp Duty. They are overall richer than us mainly because they have many times our per-capita mineral wealth, and it is mostly located in a barren desert which makes it easier to extract.

by ikimpaul | 1st Aug 23, 1:06pm 1690851970

You have no understanding of Australian Politics.

Australian politics is significantly right of NZ politics Albanese is a Labour moderate - centre left. You will find under his leadership Labor Australia have policies more aligned to NZ national than NZ Labor - they believe in strong immigration, moderate taxation, saving for retirement, lifting of the retirement age, good infrastructure - primarily roads, strong corporate investment (because that creates jobs to keep the unions happy) and more recently releasing more land for homes.

Meanwhile NZ labor are more like the Australian Greens Party and trust me there is no party as left as NZ greens in mainstream Australian Politics.

As for your other comment Australia has had a capital gains tax for almost 40 years - hardly new news and Stamp duty is slowly fading away for land taxes, but it should be noted that council rates in Australia are half of what they are in NZ and just 20% of what they are in Wellington. Most Australians pay around $1500- $1800 a year in council rates. Paying stamp duty and keeping your house a minimum of 10 years is cheaper in Australia than not paying stamp duty in NZ.

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 23, 1:34pm 1690853685

When I lived there it felt more left to me. Certainly less inequality than here.

There are a lot of people paying close to 50% income tax there and CGT on investment property, shares, & most business sales. There is a tax free threshold up to $18,200 of income and GST is lower with none on fruit and vegetables. Fuel tax is much lower. Then nurses and teachers get paid much better because the government has money for it, unlike here. Much easier to pay for roads etc too.

by WellingtonInvestor | 1st Aug 23, 4:42pm 1690864922

They have a far bigger pool of people so can share the load of costs across a far larger population. That is really the big difference between NZ and Oz. Oz also have a higher top tax rate than NZ. IMO NZ needs to move to Australias tax model on wages. But also remember that in Oz, I understand super is means tested, so people don't get back much of their tax back in super payments. Whereas in N, even high earning politicians can get super, and I can't see National doing anything about that, because many will want their extra pocket money in retirement. IMO anyone earning over 100k or with over 10 million in assets shouldn't be getting super as well. It is just crazy when so many people are struggling.

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 23, 6:12pm 1690870323

Why is it that Australia has in the past been able to do the right things yet we don't do them because vested interests don't want to give up their various golden gooses?

by K.W. | 1st Aug 23, 6:28pm 1690871315

Most people structure their salary packages to minimise income tax payable. You cannot have a discussion about Australian tax rates without discussing salary packaging and other tax benefits. For instance, a nurse will get the first $30k of income tax free due to standard health industry salary packages (and depending on employer benefits offered, maybe a lot more). You also cannot discuss tax rates without discussing tax advantaged superannuation funds, in particular the ability to set up your own self managed super fund that can buy residential property and shares, within which the income is taxed at 15% and capital gains at 10%. You can also still tax deduct numerous things against personal income from home office and car use to any losses from a rental property investment. So if you think Australia is more "Left" than NZ, you are clearly missing the bigger picture.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 23, 1:25pm 1690853128

And under the Labor Govt there immigration is running at record pace, house prices are going through the roof again, rents are sky rocketing due to lack of rentals, and wage growth is below inflation. In other words, it walks and talks like a National Govt. And as a result the flood of Kiwi's to Australia continues unabated.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300934361/onethird-of-kiwi-workers-thi…

Not all Labour Governments are as useless as our one.

by Whakatiki27 | 1st Aug 23, 12:00pm 1690848025

When you say co-governance you obviously mean ethnic dictatorship? Because that's what giving around 10% of the population 50% of the vote is. But that's ok because it was done to you, its ok to do it back. Co-governance is clumsy, vindictive and not the answer. We need something else.

by Market Interest | 1st Aug 23, 2:14pm 1690856094

More like 0.01% of the population. The 10% of the population that is claimed to be represented has no say in anything - it's just the elite few at the top picking winners.

by Whatwillhappen | 2nd Aug 23, 12:46pm 1690937213

But in fairness that was the situation before NZ was colonised - the chiefs ran things, with the tohunga. So things really are going back to the way they were, which seems to be TPM's policy.

by company of heroes | 1st Aug 23, 9:56am 1690840580

They can get as many immigrants as they want, but in the end, if we don't get skilled immigrants for the right industries, it's not going to help with our trade deficit. It will just keep pushing inflation pressure higher. By now, any sensible human in government / political parties should've learnt that the "Rock star" economy had its time, it's not going to work again. And we are not going to get skilled immigrants judging by the current state New Zealand is in. More and more experienced and skilled people are leaving for other countries.

by easymoney | 1st Aug 23, 1:39pm 1690853959

Hey there.. How high have property prices risen since Labour's been in?

by Slapheid | 1st Aug 23, 7:19am 1690831183

It's not a hole, just an 'Itsy bitsy little gully' surely?

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 8:47am 1690836463

As it fell, it may have mercilessly crushed those delicate green shoots we heard about last month.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 9:20am 1690838415

"anyone who looks at the above figures and sees signs of green shoots has probably been smoking them."

TTP - ToThePoint Or should we say, TTJ - Toking The Joint.

by tyre_kicker | 1st Aug 23, 10:26am 1690842364

More likely to find green shoots in a Southland swede paddock at this time of year

by BeeBop | 1st Aug 23, 6:31am 1690828278

Just watch, reality is hitting construction right now.

Trades on projects finishing right now have no work to go to.

There are no sales, resales are falling over.

Those on the government pay check that have had income boosts are not able to buy.

The FHB boosts won't help because of test rate increases AND some of these FHB will be working in construction - with no work.

THE CRUNCH IS VISIBLE NOW. Those who saw it have positioned and will ride it.

Those who do not read or comprehend and believed the hype (without equity protection) will be crushed.

I think this is the last stage and the one that hurts the vulnerable the most.

by MikeM | 1st Aug 23, 7:06am 1690830368

Very true. Construction is in dire straits (particularly residential) and no one seems to be noticing or concerned.

by HSL | 1st Aug 23, 7:44am 1690832670

Yep although I think each region is different. Where I am we are still 6 to 12 months from the downturn. Another issue I am hearing is that it’s hard to get staff because the cost of living relative to the wages. A local business (and I suggest an employer who values his staff) lost 3 employees to cheaper areas.

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 8:05am 1690833942

Painter1 mentioned the government’s underwrite scheme. That is only applying in regional areas, especially those hit by the floods. That might be providing a little bit of support in the regions.

by Colin Cameron | 1st Aug 23, 11:43am 1690846980

HSL you are bang on. 3 months for trusses. Ph 5 window companies not one wants the job as to busy couldn't get a concrete Placer so just placed my garage floor today myself (bugger) and every tradie I talk too has work at least till next yr

by Final Account | 1st Aug 23, 9:07am 1690837635

I imagine its 6-12 months before the Hawkes Bay rebuild starts to provide any (small) national relief to resi builders.

At the moment its demo/civil trades, insurance, lawyers and consultants/councils with their snouts in the trough.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 9:31am 1690839083

There are flood affected areas that feel like Ghost Towns down here. Not a soul to be seen, apple bins literally sitting on top of roofs of houses.

Plenty of construction or demolition work for builders everywhere, but still waiting for the Green Light.

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 23, 10:44am 1690843442

Totally pointless doing rebuilds, the whole lot will wash away again next year. Unless you are going to put houses up in the air on 2.4 meter poles I wouldn't bother. Even then couple this with the slips and the wood coming down, what's the point ? Anything thats in a flood prone zone is now a no go.

by Colin Cameron | 1st Aug 23, 11:46am 1690847178

Zwifter it should be done like the Pan handle in Florida and all the way down to Key West. 3 to 4 meters above ground on poles for storm surges as most of Florida is at sea level or very close. Definitely wouldn't want to be in one thou with a hurricane going thru.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 12:53pm 1690851229

Yes there is actually no point in rebuilding, better to demolish .

Imagine if this flood happened during the night.

by Whatwillhappen | 2nd Aug 23, 12:52pm 1690937537

Similar to Matatā in 2005-odd. The debris flow happened during the day so most people weren't home when their houses got lifted and shifted. If it had been at night there would have been fatalities. At Matatā, there was eventually a managed retreat because the risk was just too high. They're proposing that for parts of the Esk Valley.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 23, 1:32pm 1690853569

How many will simply choose to take their payout money and move elsewhere? This happened in Christchurch. Lots of people simply packed up and took their half a million dollars to start a new life in Australia. Stuff building another crappy home in a flood prone area and waiting for the next big one to hit. You might find that after the engineers/insurers complete their jobs, that is actually the end of it.

by dumbthoughts | 1st Aug 23, 8:11am 1690834281

Agreed.

Funnily enough (well, not so funnily for me) I just lost a decent client who has been with me for about 5 years now - one of the first businesses that took a punt on me after I went out working on my own.

Business with heavy exposure to residential construction (they sell certain equipment) - inquiries have collapsed, sales have dried up basically.

by Sluggy | 1st Aug 23, 8:40am 1690836014

My Son works for a builder building relocatable type housing. They are currently sitting on stock of houses where people have pulled the pin on contracts. The business is rapidly shedding staff with knowledge and hiring guys with no knowledge in a bid to lower costs. All of course on a contract basis (another building industry rort that needs to be dealt with) He is actively looking for work outside of the industry.

Just look at the number of sections for sale in the likes of Matarangi, bought at 2% and now trying to sell above what they paid, all racked up (presumably) on a primary residence in the days where you couldnt lose. Oh the Humanity.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 23, 10:02am 1690840953

coastal sections going to be a massive rort. will clear 150-250k

by Just a farmer | 1st Aug 23, 10:24am 1690842267

I work in trucking and logistics, and we are definitely seeing an uptick in work for receivers closing down transportable and tiny home businesses. (Needing partly finished houses and other assets moved).

From talking to these businesses first hand, obviously they point to economic conditions as a big factor, but they also say there was far too much hype and smoke and mirrors in the industry.

Too many companies not being honest about the requirements to actually put a tiny home or second dwelling on your property, and councils cracking down on them causing sales to fall over.

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 23, 10:49am 1690843771

Unfortunately people try and do things right and "by the book" but once you get the council involved in anything you wish you had not. In my experiences its been best to leave them out of it. Its a tiny home, its not like it cannot be moved at a later date. As long as its no affecting your neighbours, then no problems.

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 23, 11:08am 1690844904

If you hooked it up to the sewer etc you could find yourself in a lot of trouble. Otherwise you can build 30m2 without consent anyway, just some annoying rules about proximity to boundary.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 23, 11:22am 1690932145

Not really, considering where I live the stormwater is at capacity and sewerage therefore council have determined no second dwellings can be build on any sections connected to it to add to this. All it would take is a neighbours complaint or someone getting a consent nearby for something and you’d be bent over a barrel and financially scalped from the backside upwards.

by Sam B | 1st Aug 23, 11:17am 1690845453

Lotta cowboys in that particular sphere for sure. My wife (carpentry apprentice, several years' experience) spent two days working for one of them, and then confronted the boss about what an absolute s***-show he was running - utterly chaotic, no one experienced on site, using defective recycled materials, builders just failing to show up - the boss blew up and accused her of being an undercover journalist, rather than admitting there might be issues with the business, lol. They folded a few months ago owing a bunch of money, very surprising.

by dumbthoughts | 1st Aug 23, 11:34am 1690846457

You're right about the proliferation of cowboys in the tiny home industry. I used to work for a business that supplied a building material that could be used for high end builds down to tiny homes (was an alternative building material - they are still around, mostly doing social housing and volume housing now).

We went through a period of specifically targeting tiny home buyers and builders as management thought it was a good opportunity. Never met so many charlatans, con artists and weirdos in my life - and those were just the customers, don't get me started on the builders!

It was just a revolving door of dreamers, no-hopers, incompetent business owners thinking they'd struck gold, and indecisive tiny home aspirants who would walk at the first dollar they needed to pay.

No wonder they are all going out of business.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 23, 11:24am 1690932259

I know someone who has done two shipping container tiny homes as a side hustle. They're a builder and got everything sorted via the council regulations so good for them.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 23, 11:38am 1690846694

I notice this is the new Williams Corp business model - selling portable dwellings to put on site. https://www.airhome.co.nz/

by Sluggy | 1st Aug 23, 2:22pm 1690856579

How is that worth 128k ? I've built bigger garden sheds.

by Colin Cameron | 1st Aug 23, 11:50am 1690847424

Just a farmer. Yep a total con as a builder myself have looked at them and people say ain't they great. My reply is go buy a brand new Jayco with pop outs for a 120k way better investment which holds their value and are guaranteed also self contained with solar showers etc etc. I live in one have done the last 10 years. Not the top of the range like those but the wife is onto me that we need to up grade

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 8:53am 1690836821

I am starting a new data series called ute-o-meter. It measures the amount of utes for sale on trademe as a proxy for construction activity. Current figure is 8,323.

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 9:04am 1690837446

Nice

by Harvey W | 1st Aug 23, 9:11am 1690837888

Good idea kiwi, keep us posted

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 23, 9:26am 1690838810

Great idea. Assuming this is about the number of builders offloading their unused utes or those in financial trouble. Shouldn't new utes be excluded from the number? There are 720 new utes at the moment.

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 9:42am 1690839744

If new utes go unsold due to lack of demand, we want to catch that too. It's not a perfect measure as new supply can be adjusted but it is simple, easily available measure.

by Speedmax | 1st Aug 23, 7:07pm 1690873626

Who needs new utes? Not many, and those few with legitimate requirements could save themselves a lot of money buying good second hand

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 9:38am 1690839526

Excellent work Kiwimm.

Jet skis, moto bikes, camper vans etc can also be a good indicator.

Oh , and measuring how many times Property Brokers advertise each day on the Radio frantically looking for new agents to Join (replace) their team.

10% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed !

by dumbthoughts | 1st Aug 23, 11:40am 1690846857

Don't forget late model Audis, BMWs etc where you can see that the pint-sized business decal has been peeled off ("I swear Mr Tax Man, I only use the RS6 for delivering goods to clients - 100% business use only, see it even has a 5cm x 5cm logo on it!")

by streetwise | 1st Aug 23, 5:34pm 1690868047

BMWs are so yesterday. Apparently, anyone who buys a new one becomes a laughing stock or is to be pitied according to a wealthy acquaintance. If you're wanting to keep up with the Joneses you either buy an Audi or a Tesla, although the Chinese wealthy still favour Mercs.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 23, 11:27am 1690932454

Just stear clear of the latest toyota supra as they’ve committed blasphemy by lumping it with a bmw engine

by tyre_kicker | 1st Aug 23, 10:29am 1690842596

There will be a strong positive correlation with my Stabi-o-meter which tracks year-old big Stabicrafts selling 'due to a change in circumstances'

by General Comment | 1st Aug 23, 11:10am 1690845043

Good idea, but I'd say split them between new and used - whenever there's a new model released every dealer in the country floods TM with ads for them. New numbers going up without a new model being released suggests no one's buying, while an increase in used suggests asset liquidation.

by Colin Cameron | 1st Aug 23, 11:54am 1690847648

I remeber after the hype of the Christchurch rebuild and the incompetence of Fletchers and govt and how they expe Ted tradies to stand around half a day or more while they made a decision. Alot of tradies got fed up with that so P off to Aus they reckon turners had so many Hilux and ranger utes to get rid of they only did so many a week as the price would of plummeted if they auctioned them all at once

by nguturoa | 1st Aug 23, 8:19am 1690834785

The RE liars and scammers were out paying main stream media to spread all kinds of false news.

I wonder why they don't get penalised by the law for being so kniviing and scamming the kiwis.

The prices are just so expensive to be affordable. It makes zero sense to buy at these prices. We are not Los Angeles or New York of the world. We are land of cows and sheep. No big apple here.

God save NZ

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 7:50am 1690833049

Disgraceful isn’t it.

Slow hand claps for OneRoof, most economists etc.

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 8:57am 1690837060

I would like someone to ask them directly why all their predictions have been wrong in the same direction. The only valid answers are they are spruiking or incompetent - either way, they should be ignored.

by Blackbeard | 1st Aug 23, 9:31am 1690839097

Feathering their own bed, talking their book...I guess it's human nature motivated by a capitalist society.

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 23, 9:42am 1690839778

Not necessarily, it could also be that those predictions in the same direction have been correct for so long they assume it will always be correct, that property can't ever do badly for more than a few months. I certainly know people that genuinely believe that.

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 10:06am 1690841185

I put that in the incompetent camp :)

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 23, 10:11am 1690841516

A bit too early to say that yet...

by malamah | 1st Aug 23, 10:22am 1690842142

It's been almost two years...

by Speedmax | 1st Aug 23, 7:12pm 1690873970

And still a long way to go….

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 10:34am 1690842858

How many times do they have to get it wrong?

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 23, 11:06am 1690844765

I think it is too early to say whether this is the bottom, seems to be evidence both ways.

by kiwimm | 1st Aug 23, 1:45pm 1690854328

It has not been too early for the economists to call the bottom - they have done it every month for the last two years. If they were impartial they should be getting the direction wrong an equal number of times.

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 10:06am 1690841209

Economists should know that is a fallacious argument.

by 8014 | 1st Aug 23, 7:34am 1690832099

Isn't this simply an extension of the issue seen with discretionary consumer goods? There is an excess of inventory which people don't want yet, at the high-end, there are still shortages - and prices remain elevated. At least this is the case in Christchurch. Quality homes in good locations are often selling well above RV - and those RV's can be +30% or more compared to 3 years ago.

by bw | 1st Aug 23, 7:45am 1690832751

Quality homes in good locations can only transact if there is a capacity to pay. And that's likely to be the next cab off the rank - access to Debt will be restricted along with the slow trudge upwards of the price of Debt. And when that happens, the higher end stuff gets hurt the worst. After all, much of it subscribes to the 'more Debt is better', leverage as much as you can mantra. And when one house in one street in one suburb has to quit, all the rest will be contaminated by the sale price.

by starrider | 1st Aug 23, 10:40am 1690843233

But in reality - folks buying at the top end are likely to be older, 40 or 50+, and the older they are the more likely they are to have no mortgage. In our experience the higher end of the market is likely to keep plodding along, especially for homes targeted by retirees or empty nesters. As that demographic seems very willing to pay anything to get a house they love and they are likely 100% cash buyers.

by swapacrate | 2nd Aug 23, 10:46pm 1690973205

I would say unlikely, only cash buyers if the house they sold is exactly same price as one they buy. But the way the market moved, so high so fast then if they sold at 1.2 mill, the house they wanted could be 1.5 mill. If I were old I would sell, downgrade and move somewhere cheaper. Buy cheaper home and keep some cash for spending.

by Nifty1 | 1st Aug 23, 7:56am 1690833374

Not to worry, Labour has just extended its Progressive Home Ownership scheme to existing homes, which will bump up house prices by putting more buyers in the market...

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 8:06am 1690834003

Another dumb policy from Megan Woods that is guaranteed to fail.

Will have no effect on the market.

by danicriss | 1st Aug 23, 8:12am 1690834360

On the other hand $400m fund, approved providers. How much of an impact do you think this will realistically have on the market? (genuine question, not leading, I'm wondering if anyone has some numbers for this)

https://www.hud.govt.nz/our-work/progressive-home-ownership-fund/

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 8:39am 1690835971

Almost none.

I did an OIA in April of this year. Only 180 households had taken up the scheme between October 2021 (when it commenced) and the end of 2022.

It doesn’t matter if government is providing 20% equity. Prices and the cost of finance are still far too high, especially for the people the scheme might appeal to (lower income earners ). Given it is shared equity , it’s still far too much of a financial stretch for the vast majority of potential FHBs ( if you are going to make such a stretch you want the benefit of full equity)

Woods and her advisors have absolutely no clue.

by HughJorgan | 1st Aug 23, 8:58am 1690837102

Imagine the administration costs for the scheme…. and no ability to pull the pin on it.

by Chaosinflesh | 1st Aug 23, 9:06am 1690837592

The conditions to qualify for it are ridiculous - the income limit is so low those who qualify cannot afford to buy anyway, except in a few cheaper locations.

But, it probably works well for the multi-generational south Auckland families, to be fair.

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 9:13am 1690837999

Exactly.

But it provides a facade of ‘Action’

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 23, 9:21am 1690838463

The Labour party: plenty of talk, no decent solutions.

The National party: plenty of solutions, all of them to the wrong problem.

Hard to know which to pick...

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 9:28am 1690838925

Haha, well put!

by Nifty1 | 1st Aug 23, 9:22am 1690838525

have a household income before tax of no more than $150,000

Doesn't look to hard to qualify for many average families out there...

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 23, 9:28am 1690838895

The problem isn’t qualification.

The problem is - if you qualify, can you afford to pay the mortgage? And if you can, but it’s tight, would you want to when it is shared equity?

by Nifty1 | 1st Aug 23, 2:51pm 1690858311

I think the problem is people aren't aware of the scheme and don't persue it... $150k income is plenty to service a decent size mortgage around the country.

$400 million is alot of homes that effectively the Govt could buy around the country...

by General Comment | 1st Aug 23, 11:15am 1690845340

Edit: Beaten by others, should have read closer...

by Northlander09 | 1st Aug 23, 8:46am 1690836396

Pretty small target market for this scheme... something makes me think the 3rd group wont get a lookin unless they meet the 1st two criteria...

It aims to increase home ownership for three priority groups:

Māori
Pacific peoples, and
families with children

EDIT: Just to be clear I am all for this scheme and think that a road to home ownership is a great thing for the country. This should be made available for anyone in social housing. I firmly believe that as soon as someone has something to call their own (or something to loose), they are more likely to be an active member in society rather than rejecting this and causing problems.

by Flying high | 1st Aug 23, 8:29am 1690835387

Are there any numbers for the 6 cities incl Chch Dunedin Hamilton and Tauranga.

Auckland and Wellington are the regional totals as well

by Flying high | 1st Aug 23, 12:32pm 1690849923

Could show vastly different results than the region as a whole

by KH | 1st Aug 23, 8:53am 1690836816

Price. Bubbles are self inflating. And when bubbles puncture the same principle applies But down down and down.

Long way to go yet.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 9:46am 1690840006

The Pendulum Always Swings !

by npc | 1st Aug 23, 9:00am 1690837217

We are hearing from bullshit artists that stabilising prices have increased buyer interest, but the data tells us that this interest hasn't necessarily resulted in more sales yet.

by ikimpaul | 1st Aug 23, 9:09am 1690837743

This is impossible, the main stream media told us for the whole of July that the housing market was back in boom time, hundreds of people at open homes, thousands at auctions, houses selling in the same week they were listed, immigration was booming and thousands of new immigrants and foreign buyers, and and and... were entering the market and you needed to get in quick before prices hit new record levels.

Surely the Media hasn't got it wrong.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 9:50am 1690840230

Lame Stream Media.

And to think some people here actually pay for it.

It's one thing to be Lied To, it's a whole something else to Pay someone to Lie to You.

by sparrow | 1st Aug 23, 11:24am 1690845878

Their business model depends on it... that's why you see the Herald and co going hard out to reignite the ponzi and get a NACT government into power.

by WellingtonInvestor | 1st Aug 23, 4:43pm 1690864994

They also said the OCR rises have come to an end. Despite several banks seeing future OCR rises. We will see how that works out. See this articles headline also says the OCR hike streak is at an end. https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/housing-market/market-update-no-move-i…

by Chaosinflesh | 1st Aug 23, 9:59am 1690840791

Although there has been a lot of industry chatter recently about the housing market showing tentative signs of recovery, anyone who looks at the above figures and sees signs of green shoots has probably been smoking them

Wow, didn't expect that LOL!

by Yvil | 1st Aug 23, 10:08am 1690841297

So it was probably no surprise that the average asking price also took a tumble.

At the same time, I was very surprised to read in one of your articles Greg, that according to REINZ, median prices had risen over the last 6 months. Also there has been more money borrowed in July to buy RE. It's quite hard to make sense of it all!

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 10:21am 1690842075

Maybe you and TTJ need to lay off the Green Shoots. Then it all makes good sense.

by morepork | 1st Aug 23, 10:43am 1690843396

These are the last 7 months nationwide median prices and HPIs according to REINZ

Dec 2022 | 790,000 | 3632
Jan 2023 | 762,500 | 3582
Feb 2023 | 762,000 | 3584
Mar 2023 | 775,000 | 3556
Apr 2023 | 780,000 | 3529
May 2023 | 780,000 | 3507
Jun 2023 | 780,000 | 3518

Median has been pretty flat over the period, 6 month change is down 10k, but HPI is showing a more pronounced downward trend with a small uptick in the June release. We won't know if that's just noise for a few months.

by Whakatiki27 | 1st Aug 23, 12:07pm 1690848435

One trick agents are using in this declining market is to hide the price as TBC, so maybe median prices only reflecting listed prices, which are older?

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 1:04pm 1690851894

Good work Morepork.

Yvil is the master of deception. My favourite is his million dollar claim about chopping down some trees.

Best Yvil and TTJ stick to smoking the Green Shoots.

by nzphoenix | 1st Aug 23, 3:47pm 1690861667

“What cyclone?”

by Timutei | 1st Aug 23, 10:01am 1690840876

This article gives a good macro view that the market is still in the woods. Another article about mortgage growth on the same day https://www.interest.co.nz/business/123298/latest-rbnz-lending-figures-… indicates that there is growth.

It would be useful to see a segment based analysis that brings together the different indicators and tell the overall story

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 23, 10:03am 1690841018

I love that headline.....

"Open up I've got the stuff...... Daves not here Man!"

by Averageman | 1st Aug 23, 10:21am 1690842101

Smoke em if you got em...may help to dry the green shoots first though.

by huttman | 1st Aug 23, 10:40am 1690843257

a sharp drop for both total stock and new listings in Wellington, Auckland

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 1:07pm 1690852031

And yet Auckland losing more than 1K Per Day.

by nicko252 | 1st Aug 23, 11:04am 1690844652

"Just a flesh wound" opines Sir Ashley Spruikealot.

by DavidJ | 1st Aug 23, 11:42am 1690846930

will mainstream media pick this story up .. or the REs, banks and brokers .. lol .. not a chance.

by Waikatohome | 1st Aug 23, 4:24pm 1690863892

Ireland took 15 years to recover from their property crash, should all be good by 2036.

by Nzdan | 1st Aug 23, 5:17pm 1690867067

To be fair, they had to recover from a 65%+ fall. So if we're comparing apples with apples, we'd have to fall another 30 - 40% first, and then climb our way out of the pit.

by Waikatohome | 1st Aug 23, 5:27pm 1690867676

Markets tend to over correct. I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to 2015/16 prices.

by Speedmax | 1st Aug 23, 7:29pm 1690874958

Ireland’s fall was 50-60%, depending on region. Still very possible in NZ.

by WellingtonInvestor | 1st Aug 23, 4:32pm 1690864337

This article sort of says that house prices have bottomed out. https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/housing-market/the-housing-market-has-…;

NZers really need to read lots of different articles to get a better picture of what is going on.

by Hawkes Bay | 1st Aug 23, 5:10pm 1690866651

Squirrel Mortgages also say this - " For a long while now we’ve been saying peak mortgage rates will be between 5.50% and 6.00%, and I’ve yet to see anything to change my mind on that."

https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/housing-market/down-but-not-out-making…

It always pays to read The Scrolls first .

I wonder if this crowd sell mortgages ?

by Nzdan | 1st Aug 23, 5:21pm 1690867280

At least John Bolton includes a disclosure statement at the bottom of his blog posts.

by tuisbest | 3rd Aug 23, 9:45am 1691012753

So you seriously think NZers should read more articles by Tony Alexander to get a better picture of what is going on?!

TA ends the article by saying: "My current pick for 2024 is average price gains around 10% — but uncertainties are high along with the risk of looking foolish!"

I have fixed this sentence for him here: "My current pick for 2024 is average price gains around 10% — but uncertainties are high along with the risk of looking foolish - again!"

by _Nick_ | 3rd Aug 23, 11:53am 1691020414

Just note realestate.co.nz are reporting on dwellings and sections. If you look solely at dwellings there are fewer live listings now than last month and last July (2022)