Sales were flat but selling prices took a tumble at Auckland's largest real estate agency in July.
Barfoot & Thompson sold 727 residential properties in July, little changed form the 711 it sold in June and 723 in May. However, that is up 19% from July last year.
The number of new listings the agency has been receiving has also been flat over the last three months, with 1213 new listings in July, 1266 in June and 1262 in May.
Total stock available for sale has declined steadily for five consecutive months, down to 4076 in July from 4873 in February.
The big mover in July was price, with the median selling price shedding $45,000 to $950,000, after remaining unchanged at $995,000 for the previous three months.
That is the lowest the median price has been since September 2020, and is now down $290,000 (-23%) since it peaked in November 2021.
The average selling price declined by $30,826 to $1,067,070 in July, putting it at its lowest point since November 2020.
Barfoot's average selling price has now declined for four consecutive months.
The latest figures suggest the market has settled at a relatively low level, with July's sales down 17% compared to their pre-Covid level in July 2019, while price continues to be a major factor in determining a sale.
Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said it was unlikely there would by any large movement in prices as the market moved out of winter and into the election period.
"For the third month in a row sales have hit 700 and prices have remained stable, indicating the market has found a natural plateau and we can expect an uplift in activity as we approach spring," Thompson said.
"Our teams across the city are reporting a significant increase in enquiries from potential vendors as we look towards spring.
The interactive charts below track the monthly movements in Barfoot & Thompson's sales, selling prices and new listings.
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121 Comments
I'm guessing that's some kind of record. Only a cruel b'stard would weaponize this around the water cooler.
Well if you drag the time handle on the chart (edit, for the price change) back to 2002, it's unprecedented.
The market is diving.
This is the bottom.
10% this year, guaranteed!
You're an idiot.
(Hopefully this heads off about 120 comments.)
You need to be more balanced, there are other opinions here as well.
Don't miss out
Spruikers gonna spruik
if you have cash now is the time for a deal
X is a real estate agent!
50 messages will involve the word scroll.
50 messages will involve the word scroll.
...... and the remainder will involve the word "troll".
TTP
I'm achingly conscious I should have made last one "Your an idiot."
Gold! I think everyone here would forgive an edit, just this once.
Yep, brilliant!
This post has made my week.
'Tis but a (nother) scratch.
Death by 45,000 cuts?
You need to brush up on your monty python
ok now we have reached a cold but stable states. the next marker would be a increase in volume, that'll be the sign of market warming up again.
I can't see any real signs of stability, prices still seem to be tracking down.
The rate they are falling at has stabilised
What's on the edge of a "natural plateau" ?
Real estate agents obviously don’t listen in their Geography lessons. How can you have a plateau at the bottom? It’s a raised flat area at the top of a hill or mountain. Perhaps a natural trench or the abyssal plain has been reached.
Depends which plateau and which edge. 3 out of 4 directions on the Tibetian plateau will run you straight into a mountain range.
Can't wait for the spring surge in listings, to add to the languishing 30k plus listings currently. Keeping in mind that month after month the market continues to break low new listing records that are over 15 years old.
The spring surge will see how many houses listed? 10k? 20k? 2k? Will there be a spring surge?
I cant see the evidence of FOMO that TA was ranting about...
The difference between fomo and foop (fear of overpaying), square rooted.
Lol
'A natural plateau'
Ha ha . Visons of lovely picturesque grassy meadow.
Plateau is the least most appropriate word for where the RE market is at.
'A natural cliff edge'
Fixed.
Simple mathematical theory.. rates up, prices down...
Rates higher for longer.. prices will keep dropping for longer
TA and AC look ever more like the village idiots........calling rates have peaked over the last 18 months (wrong, wrong and currently wrong) and now they see buttoms everywhere they look.....wrong, wrong, still wrong.
Major falls still to occur in the last Q4, as much, much higher interest rates are comming then and many Debts will be completely poisonous!
Then bigger drops through 2025, as Debts bust more backs!
The market confidence is mauled and shot to pieces!
The weird thing is that they go unscathed, considering their commentary drives some folks to make big decisions, they need to be held accountable..
This is why we saw "The housing market appears to have reached its turning point" vs "The housing market has reached its turning point" on the core logic article recently - "Speculative commentary" vs "Statements of fact" that could be construed as financial advice. It could be very interesting to see how TA et al. phrase their forecasts.
Unsurprisingly - TA has two disclaimers on his newsletters. He's not stupid.
Robertson and Orr need to be held accountable for the collapse of the economy.
What collapse are you referring to? GDP is at an all time high. Go look at England’s economy if you really want to see one that has been circling the toilet for the last 5 years due to government ineptitude.
Languishing per capita GDP is the problem, and balance of payment deficits plus bad news for dairy farmers today, and bottomless pits of need driving govt spending driving inflation, driving up rates.
The employment stats this week paint a picture of people working harder and seeing their standard of living drop anyway.
This is just getting started.
Well said. People are working such long hours and so hard to keep afloat and food on the table. I think many in govt. and many commentators are so far removed from the average worker, especially those outside the main centres.
But Robo will be saying productivity!
"they need to be held accountable"
Easier to blame Jacinda, Orr or Robertson.
Classic, I wrote my reply before I got to Blackdog's comment.
Maybe that bottom they saw was actually Grant's big hole: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/parliament-in-question-time-hyst…
Explains why they were a day late with the results..
To many facts to counter spin.
On average in New Zealand, we live in our homes for about seven years before we consider our next move, Thompson said.This means many of those considering listing in the coming weeks and months will have bought their property in 2016, and in the intervening years it’s likely the value of their property will have increased about 23 per cent, he emphasised.
Or to put it another way, those who relocate will have to spend 23% more today than they would have 7 years ago to buy the same home. When that disparity has been eliminated from current prices, then we can set about properly recalibrating property and the Debt that underpins it. Because even at 2016 prices, our market will still be grossly distorted on any metric you care to look at. The only thing holding this market up is the ingrained belief that 'property always rises', and as we are seeing - it doesn't.
What a dumb way of doing things. Changing houses every 7 years.
nguturoa
Not necessarily so, as one’s family needs change. The one child is now three, the 2 year old is now 9; the small 2 bedroom starter is too small.
Or, mortgage is relatively a lot smaller and income a lot higher so why not a move up to a more pleasant suburb.
Or, one transfers to another location, or children leave home, or a marital split.
Plenty of reasons for selling . . . and about seven (ten max) years is about as often as I moved home all for all quite rational reasons.
"... it’s likely the value of their property will have increased about 23 per cent"
Or not.
The REINZ graph shows Auckland house prices flat-lined between 2016 and covid madness.
So no, Peter. I beg to differ.
He is straight up a f**ing liar.
Median sales price drops by 45K
"For the third month in a row sales have hit 700 and prices have remained stable"
Let me correct that. "On average, we can afford to live in our homes for about seven years".
Top comment. It’s completely academic for anyone buying and selling in the same market. FHB are very badly affected but above inflation house price increases, so bad for society not good. I’m pretty sure we’ll see 2016 prices again - though at the time they were excessive by any comparable international standards. Why do we have this ingrained mindset that high/rising house prices are good? Housing is as basic a human need as food, but nobody likes rising food prices.
Burn baby burn. Lots of noise recently about being the bottom and only up from here....blah blah blah.
Buttered popcorn 🍿
Congrats to those buying well out there...
You'll be a good cheerleader
Mate you're forever on the side lines too scared to play, perhaps you're the Waterboy?
I'm beginning to think that life must be so bad for some of the DGM's on here that they would actually enjoy getting Waterboarded.
Lol.. we're not the suckers at the moment
I enjoy my term deposit Zwifter
So do I, even better when its part of a mortgage free house.
Absolutely, I'm the water boy sitting on the sidelines watching many a fool make a mistake
You could say the fool is the one who never wins because they just watch others doing and criticize...
Yep Nifty but don't expect any of them to waste their time commenting on here about it.
You said it dude 'we wouldn't want to waste our time ' on people that lack comprehension
If there's a tick in the pause OCR rises column, it could be that falling valuations will be pushing more low equity buyers onto higher mortgage rates?
Standard Rates are a very Taboo subject on Interest.co.nz .
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300941816/the-home-loan-borrower…
Not taboo amongst we dgm death cultists.
If I ever borrow a pile I will warn everyone, because that will surely be the moment rates surge to 10%+, guaranteed.
remember when Hulk Hogan used to be on the canvas and then he'd slowly get up on his knees and shake his finger and his head at his opponent, mouthing the words no, no, no? youll never keep the nz housing market down.
so whatcha gonna do when Hulkamania runs wild on you!?
Geez, you're stuck in the 80's
Good times.
Most of those guys were pumped on steroids and are in an early grave, British Bulldog, Ultimate warrior, Big Boss Man, Mr Perfect...
Actually, it's a fairly good comparison...
I am not surprised.
I've mentioned the effect of new Auckland Unitary Plan on prices. And now the rest of the country has the MDRS and the NPS-UD so they're all much the same as Auckland was back in 2016.
I'm still picking prices will return to 2017 level + inflation.
probably more like 2009 + inflation, that is where we had ocr > 5 last time
Lol 2009. That’s a pathetic take.
Don't say that. I don't offend you, you don't offend me. No reasons to go that way.
Anyways, I said 2009 + inflation, which is completely possible, if not optimistic. Try to compare ocr graph and average house cost and you should see that the trajectory is linear, when no ocr are decreased, and goes up ridicolously fast when they are cut. Now the inverse is happening. You can do the same maths, or integrate with your opinions.
... or just ignore the comments that you don't like and keep living a happy life
Average price chart looks more like the elevation profile of the Matterhorn than a natural plateau.
Auckland prices currently look like they are around Zmutt Ridge
https://zermatterhorn.info/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Climbing-the-Matt…
Ain't no valley to be seen yet
I am going skiing/fishing for a week, I expect the market to be down another 10k by the time I get back........ 10k a week, buys a lot of beer. no tax either on that saving.......
We're you doing anything differently when the market was going up $ thousands a week?
Yes, I had multiple houses, thats the way you play it, sharpen up......
Sharpen up Nifty50 !
You've got the good life
See multiple houses on the way up post above... now just my own place. Great life.
Living the dream, skiing and fishing, not at the same time
Not now but later on when its shit spring show you can catch a fish or 2 - get up there by 10am, ski till 2pm, back on the riover by 4pm and its daylight saving, you can catch your limit and ski for the best 4hours of the day.....
...and it looks like there's bigger fishing moving through now than a month or so back. Tempting.
Word is it needs rain, but until then I ski, hard life............. got my season fishing ticket today. Its olive wooley buggers and glowbugs onwards..........
Hi Greg, do you think you could add a third matrix to the price graph. Currently when scrolling over a graph point you have a pop up with 'price' and 'date' could we add the 'ocr' rate at that point in time too. Please.
According to this chart, I should have bought a median priced house in 2007.
Sales may well go up over the following months and prices keep falling. I think that is the signature of a crash.
Yip listing could increase as more people realise what is happening (assuming prices keep falling and more people want to exit the market).
It wouldn’t surprise me if prices fall another 20% in nominal terms. Not saying this is a prediction - but that it is definitely a possibility that people should consider before buying or whether or not they were thinking that this is the bottom and selling (it may not be).
Another 20% is where the yields start to stack up again. Unless interest rates start going down (not happening any time soon), then prices need to slowly drop that far IMO.
They don't even have to think it themselves - it was the reason the bank manager told us a few months ago they were no longer giving pre-approvals - "we don't want people buying and heading straight down into negative equity".
With inflation high and rates not going down for a long time this housing market will continue to fall. As people see the value of their property drop 25% and see huge increases in monthly payments after refinancing from 4000 to 6500 for a million over 30 years, the crash is just picking up speed it won’t be long as people realise they were duped into pay way to much for property and are now trapped for years in negative equity.
I've had a look at a few properties and the numbers really don't work at all without 3 % to 5 % per annum appreciation. Sure, if national get in that's favourable, but a term is only 3 years and Labour could return. The only upside for me is that Central Banks cannot be trusted, they will betray the currency in a heartbeat if required.
Most people buying property are merely upgrading houses with plenty of equity. Very few are buying million dollar houses with 10% or 20% deposits (the average NZ house has 75% equity). FHB sure are being forced to stay in the bottom quarter of the market though.
This is exactly what i am seeing, why there are so few 2mil sales going through
Boomers buying their retirement location (breach or lake) after cashing up their gains on the legacy family house for a squillion tax free capital gain.
Don’t really see how National returning will cause a surge in house prices. The government doesn’t control interest rates, and National promising to cut taxes is going to add more inflationary pressure meaning rates could stay higher for longer. That sounds to me more like a negative for house prices.
so we got -- sales numbers -little change new listings - little change total stock- little change all reported on before BOOM $45k OR $1500 a day of house prices in our largest market --
You would think thats the lead message but no fourth point! hmmmm
It is possible real panic could really set in if prices fall by the same amount next month. $45,000 drop is close to 5% in a month.
It's a tiny sample, probably not statistically significant and not used to draw conclusions on the total population.
~700 out of ~30,000 for sale is statistically relevant - and even moreso if you consider it ~1/9th of last month's sales... houses unlisted are worth .. one house.
It's a tiny sample, probably not statistically significant and not used to draw conclusions on the total population
Actually, assuming a normally distributed population, 780 is a more than sufficient sample. If you're talking about statistical significance difference between the average price of last month and this month, that can be done.
Did you use the Central Limit Thereom or ChatGPT?
The sample of 780 has to be completely random, do you know that? No one seriously thinks the Auckland mean house price dropped 5% in July do they? Also since you are quoting statistics, you need to know the standard deviation of the $45k to draw conclusion, how do you know that?
I just determined what a min sample size required for a specified confidence level (95%) and margin of error (5%). Min sample size would be 377.
You are correct in that I would need to understand SD / variance to calculate any sig difference between two different samples - this month vs last month for example.
$45k off the price of a house in order to get it sold is peanuts. Especially in Auckland Just watched a bunch of sellers do exactly that in Blenheim last month. One seller dropped $50k, so I told my Dad to do the same (he did), then everyone else dropped $50k as well. For those that went first, the price drop did what it was intended to do - got the houses sold. Now the question is what happens this month to the laggards who didnt snag a sale?
Yes, but that is beside the point. The data is referring to the difference between the average of total monthly sales over 2 months.
700 in Auckland is not significant for anywhere except Auckland?
700 in Auckland is not significant for anywhere except Auckland?
It would be 'statistically significant' in any NZ major or secondary city.
Yes but if we do the same next month, then it starts to get significant.
"Barfoot's average selling price has now declined for four consecutive months"
"prices have remained stable, indicating the market has found a natural plateau"
Yeah, nah. When I went to school, something that went DOWN 4 months in a row is not (a) stable or (b) in a plateau.
Same with " someone" too
Dead cat bounce midway down the stairs is my call.
I'm not saying the market isn't falling, that's not my point. Just that the $45k cannot cannot be applied to every house in Auckland with any sort of statistical integrity.
Its the fall in the median house price, not every house. Some houses would have dropped $10k (lower quartile) and others $100k (upper quartile). And Auckland is not the only market where vendors are reducing prices by 5% to get a sale - it just happened in Blenheim as well (and my Dad was one of them with a 5.6% price reduction, and he ended up selling at a 6.9% reduction from original advertised price).
All ways good to hear real stories. What your father did was smart, many can be stubborn and miss the opportunity.
I might have yelled at him when I first heard what price they had put on the property lol. But he saw sense and followed my advice to drop the price and get a sale. Survival of the quickest in this market. He is going into a retirement village so had to get a sale. He was stuck in a chain of sales (all waiting on "sale of house" conditions to go unconditional) for 7 weeks before finally getting a cash offer, albeit at the lower price. Told him to take it and move on with his life, which is what he has done.
I'm not saying the market isn't falling, that's not my point. Just that the $45k cannot cannot be applied to every house in Auckland with any sort of statistical integrity.
Disagree. Statistics have integrity if they're used properly. If you understand the variance and skew, then stats and data most definitely have integrity.
I'm a newbie to this, but love the fact that many here have a far better grasp of the RE/ economy than the "so called experts". And some are bloody funny.
My simple take on the RE market is.
There are so many " balls in play," on so many fields, with so many experts, causing so many varied and incorrect analysis that it's not surprising no one has a clue what will happen.
Every commercial commentator has an "angle" based on their employer and or selective data / information that they choose to gather... They are, by virtue of thier own myopic bias, inaccurate .
yet...
Only one set of experts use all the data/information available and has the ability to comment unencumbered....
That is ...
You guys. 👍 Via Interest.co.nz
Nice work
Yeah….but one really really huge ball, the cost of borrowing credit - interest rates.
Yes interest rates...and the effect that has on price.
Peter Thompson is a liar.
And no, that is not defamatory. Their own data says median prices have fallen 45k, yet he says prices are ‘stable’.
Par for the course, for the vested.....
Not really.
Low sales volumes so what do you expect ? Results that bounce about. Wouldn't be surprised when next month shows $45K gains. The market is a bit distorted at present. Draw a line from 2020, prices are still up.
Why from 2020?
Not if stable is defined as +/- $45k 🤔🙄
Like someone else said ...
If this was any other industry these so called experts world be hauled up before the courts for misleading information and unduly influence the market.
The RE industry need independent regulation and none of this REINZ " wet bus tickets" oversight rubbish
As ACT will tell you - We are all benefiting from the efficiencies of self regulation and/or industrial scale regulatory capture by NZ's big biz.
When making sales comparison they never mention increase in stock which has been large in Auckland in last 10 years. Hence equal number of sales over time is a lower % of stock. Meaning lower market
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