Barfoot & Thompson's December sales were one of their best in 2023, enabling them to round out 2023 marginally better than the unusually weak 2022. Prices were little-changed

The HPI for Auckland was also more or less flat between 2016-2020. I agree with Chris that the Unitary plan has had a massive effect. But I am not sure if I agree with him that it will continue to have an effect. As far as I can tell anecdotally, all of the properties that can be practicably intensified under the unitary plan have already happened. Further intensification will be more expensive to achieve than the low lying fruit that has already been exploited.

Yes I think the Unitary Plan had an effect.

Don't heap too much praise on the bureaucrats. You'll only encourage them and cement their belief systems. 

2018/19 were house price falls of up to 10 percent, most were around 5 percent.

Rents need to almost double to pay interest. 

If property is only going up with inflation and if interest rates are staying high then I would wait for now. But my personal opinion is that inflation is well dead and interest rates will come down, in that scenario I would buy now. 

Yesterday a comment was made about a couple renting a $600k townhouse for $540pw. The investor if bought at that price at 7% would be negatively geared by $30k.



It would take 18 years for that rent to increase enough to cover the negative costs of the rental at that interest rate and assumed 4% annual increase.



So yes, if you're looking to make money then it depends on where you see opportunity and weighing up the cost of your life savings tied up in one home rather than multiple other assets.



If you're looking for some additional money in the short term, to save, build a deposit or fund something self driven, it makes no sense to rush.



Actually thinking now - until someone has around 25% of their mortgage borrowing capacity, it might be a worse decision to buy. Until then saving money will boost your purchase price by 5x based on needing a 20% deposit. Every $1 saved is $5 added until you reach 25% of your maximum borrowing capacity (a 20% deposit), then it's 1:1.



All else about FOMO is just noise, people should be encouraged to research and plan their future rather than the false statement that somehow there will be a point where nobody can afford to buy. Because that thinking only enforces the eventual price collapse.

Good explanation nzdan 

Let’s say it costs half as much to rent than own, and let’s say you put that difference into a TD paying 6% instead, that’s quite a bit of money you could be saving instead of waiting for rents to go up.

Normally it would make long term sense to own due to inflation paying off the debt and increasing the rent, but things are so far out of whack right now it’s hard to know. 

Let's assume you're right. And that what has happened over the last 40 years repeats in the next 40, by 2040 the average house price will be ~$4m. The average household income will be ~$220k. Buying your first home will be impossible without significant down payment from mum and dad ~$3m and ~$1m mortgage. So then, investment property. Yield will be roughly double what it is today, maybe even 3-4x. Let's be extra generous and go with 3 times yield even though we're assuming salaries and wages will double. So a 50% real increase in rents. Aaaaaand math:



Yield: 2.25% or $1800pw

Mortgage: Let's say 3% just to really drill this home - $3900pw

Rates, PM and maintenance: I'll be generous and go $20k here, $400pw (I think rates will go through the roof at some point)



If rents increase at the same rate as wage inflation, that yield is 1.5% or $1200pw

If interest rates are 4%, that weekly payment is ~$4500, at 5% ~$5000. At today's interest rates, over $6,000 per week.



And then on top of all of that - you need to find someone to buy the $4m property and the bank to say yes.



For the numbers to add up in 2040 at 5% as they do today (they still don't add up today), rents will need to double in real terms. That means twice as many people in every single rental. To achieve this, the government will need to remove the laws preventing crowding in houses. The official cash rate will need to be negative. The accommodation supplement would need to be about half of our GDP.



How many people will be living in the streets?



Edit: Yesterday you made a statement about my opinion that none of this will happen, and that my opinion is "warped".

re ... "Wages simply do not keep up end of story."

The rate of wage increases exceeds the rate of inflation - fact.

Where cities increase dwelling supply to meet demand, either through higher density zoning or spread, dwelling prices stagnate while wages keep rising - another fact.

Sorry if those facts break your narrative. (They do however point the finger at how awful our NIMBY driven Councils have been / are.)