Barfoot & Thompson says there is a log jam of properties for sale in Auckland

Property / news

Auckland housing market swamped by homes for sale, leaving buyers spoiled for choice, 'creating the largest buyers' market since 2011'

5th Mar 24, 10:50am by Greg Ninness

Barfoot & Thompson's February sales figures suggest there is a glut of homes for sale.

The real estate agency, which is the largest in the Auckland market, sold 633 residential properties in February.

That's not a bad result.

It's up 54% on February last year when the market was well and truly in a slump, but down 16% on February 2022 and down 44% compared to February 2021.

Looking at the long term sales figures, last month's sales were probably just a bit below average.

However, the number of homes that were sold was swamped by the number of homes that are for sale.

Barfoot's received 2255 new listings in February, the the highest number of new listings in February since 2017 and the highest number in any month of the year since November 2021, which was the peak of the last housing boom.

That pushed up the total number of residential properties for sale on Barfoot's books to 5382 at the end of February.

Barfoots have not had that many properties to sell since April 2011, which means current stock levels are at a near 13 year high.

Both the average and median selling prices edged up compared to January but remained below where they were in the latter months of last year.

The agency's average selling price was $1,116,150 in February, up 3% compared to January, but down 5.5% compared to December last year.

The median selling price was $970,000 in February, up 0.4% compared to January, but down 6.7% compared to December.

"There is a log jam of homes for sale which is creating the largest buyers' market we have seen since 2011," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"This build up of homes started in August and in the last six months has reached the point where buyers have rarely had such a depth of choice.

"The build up of homes for sale is a combination of a high number of new homes reaching the market, owner-occupiers moving forward with relocation plans as the market re-emerges from the downward cycle and the normal hesitancy of buyers trying to get their timing right in terms of price and mortgage rate," Thompson said.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

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Source: Barfoot and Thompson

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147 Comments

by Flying high | 5th Mar 24, 10:53am 1709589205

Yay, there hasnt been much available in my area

by Blackbeard | 5th Mar 24, 11:34am 1709591648

You probably have (look on homes website). Not all houses have a for sale sign outside, this is deliberate, as not to show the public there’s a large supply of non selling property. (supply, demand psychology at work).

by JimboJones | 5th Mar 24, 1:16pm 1709597817

Really? If I was selling my house I wouldn't allow the agent to not show the public its for sale.

by Blackbeard | 5th Mar 24, 1:32pm 1709598779

A lot of people are embarrassed if their house sits unsold for a number of weeks, they usually ask for the sign to be removed, but still have it listed on TM, homes and the like.

by realterms | 5th Mar 24, 1:39pm 1709599189

There's certainly a lot around here (coastal north shore). Auckland-wide it's now about the same as end of March 2019 (~14,300 on TM), which is the highest since I started watching in April 2017. The low, btw, was less than half of that (~6800) in Sept 2021. It doesn't take a genius to see the relationship with prices...

by Zwifter | 5th Mar 24, 1:39pm 1709599161

Doesn't really happen like that. My experience is if you are registered with a specific RE they will contact you before it gets openly listed making you feel you are kind of special and have a shot at it before the plebs do. That's more how the "Psychology" works.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 6:20pm 1709616053

Just took a look, wow there are a lot of houses for sale in Auckland that map system has more spots then a kid with chicken pox

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 10:55am 1709589343

The 2% loans are approaching the end of their run. Exposed spec crowd is calling "eject eject eject". Popcorn with hot caramel butter...

by Rampart | 5th Mar 24, 11:21am 1709590914

Buckle up and remain seated. Turbulence incoming

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:29am 1709591361

Having watched all the older spec housing owners running around in panic to offload their rentals in the Asian Debt crisis in 1997, it feels the same as the lead into that period. Are we about to see the same unfold?

Finally, cash, ...will again be king.

by HouseMouse | 5th Mar 24, 1:43pm 1709599391

How far out will Tony A’s prediction be? 7%? 10%? 15%?

by Toye | 5th Mar 24, 10:56am 1709589383

High levels of stock with increasing desperation = falls in prices coming.

by Retired-Poppy | 5th Mar 24, 11:13am 1709590410

Sure as night follows day - the next downward leg of this downtrend is poised to resume. Property Spruikers have been vocal of the appearance of a "floor" in prices when adjusted for inflation houses were still slipping in value. Now they're slipping over on their own saliva.

by longjohndrop | 5th Mar 24, 11:19am 1709590756

Looks who’s back to reign down with misery

by Retired-Poppy | 5th Mar 24, 11:27am 1709591247

You call it misery? Saving and patient FHB's see it as a (GENUINE) approaching opportunity to get on with their lives and finally enter. Cheer up....the future is looking brighter by the day :)

by OldSkoolEconomics | 5th Mar 24, 2:40pm 1709602838

Great comment RP.

The smart kids with stable income, some savings and a basic understanding of the economy will swoop - when the forced house sales commence into an already over crowded and saturated market.

I pick Sept-January 24/25 for the deals.

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:30am 1709591456

Yup, if the spec tax avoiding crowd catches fire over the next 18 months, many a long suffering working tax payer will cheer. Rightly so.

by Grattaway | 5th Mar 24, 11:40am 1709592044

and the tax (wo)man may cometh if you havent owned for long enough

by mark_a | 5th Mar 24, 12:03pm 1709593423

Only if you made money

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 11:40am 1709592012

Anybody with half a brain can see that the housing market is the misery. It worked its magic trick and pulled the country out of a foul mood, but that foul mood was only passed on 10-fold to the next generations.

Let's put it this way: How many forward looking years of labour go into the purchase of a 1920s house today? Far too many. How many new resources need to be consumed to fuel the purchase of that same old house? That's the miserable part.

by RickStrauss | 5th Mar 24, 12:44pm 1709595866

It was market manipulation via policy that enabled a bunch of today's older speculators to live beyond their own means based off the wealth of preceding and succeeding generations. No surprises that politicians were and remain some of the largest speculators, fixing policy to suit their own investments.

by FHBtears | 5th Mar 24, 11:38am 1709591900

RP I do very clearly remember you saying late last year “wait until Autumn 2024”. Seems like you may have been on to something.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 12:33pm 1709595206

I'd hold off on saying that prediction has come true.

The RBNZ may cut soon and I expect the market to stabilize with a slight downwards bias. So still plenty of time to buy through winter and probably spring. Further cuts will remove the downwards bias but building of new dwellings will ramp up slowly - but enough to mop up demand and remove FOMO - and prices will go nowhere for a long, long time.

Caveat: All depending on what the NACTF does of course.

by makechange | 5th Mar 24, 2:10pm 1709601035

Even if RBNZ changes ocr today, prices will take 12-18 months (normally ~14) to adjust, following mortgage refix lags.

Just look at the rapid change in ocr in 2020 followed by price craziness in mid to late 2021.

We're now seeing the lagged downward pressure that the 2021-2023 ocr rises are having on house prices as would-be mortgage holders adjust their price expectations based on their new borrowing capacity while having stare downs with vendors who are still in the lala land of valuing their assets based on sub 3% yield

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 3:21pm 1709605310

Some of the distressed sellers will remove their listings and will be able to hold on. Banks will step back from taking action against some. It's not just about price movements - it's also about keeping the market stable ... and avoiding a doom loop where people just give up.

by makechange | 5th Mar 24, 8:21pm 1709623263

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that doom loop usually called a correction?

by 1689 Baptist | 5th Mar 24, 7:13pm 1709619180

time will tell. Median price actually took a small kick up last month so it may not be a crash just yet. I'm picking flat prices through 2024.

by Zwifter | 5th Mar 24, 1:42pm 1709599337

Lucky you already own a house RP or else you would be slipping over on your own drool in the rest home before you got to buy a place.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 1:46pm 1709599611

Calling you out on this comment, bad taste. Your parents helped you into your home. Show some decorum.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 3:23pm 1709605421

Why call him out? He's not wrong for many people in NZ.

Oh. Wait. That was black humor? Now I get it.

by DavidJ | 5th Mar 24, 11:18am 1709590691

ccrraacck...

by Squishy | 5th Mar 24, 10:58am 1709589513

When interest rates where low and property prices moving upwards it probably made more sense to hold. Now everyone is trying to crowd the exits.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 12:23pm 1709594603

"When interest rates where low and property prices moving upwards it probably made more sense to hold.

No it didn't!

I sold a few 'underperforming' rentals that had little or no future upside when rates were low. Sold fast. Great prices. Reduced mortgages on the remainder and added the leftover to the 'development fund' which is still on ice at okay interest rates. Advised a relative who was looking for a change to sell and rent while they looked for a new place. They too are laughing. And cash buyers are much loved at present.

by CN - new | 5th Mar 24, 1:31pm 1709598699

"When interest rates where low and property prices moving upwards it probably made more sense to hold"

Property buyers were making 2 key assumptions:

1) residential property prices will not fall by much

2) mortgage interest rates will not rise by much

As a result of those assumptions, many property buyers chose to purchase a property that represented anywhere from 500% to 2000% of their entire net worth. (80% - 95% LVR mortgage)

Both have subsequently proven to be incorrect.

Now those buyers are facing the consequences of their choice.

Most people forget

1) people are free to choose, however people are not free to choose the consequences of their choice.

2) a lifetime of good decisions can be entirely undone by one single decision

by WestieAJ | 5th Mar 24, 10:59am 1709589567

They will probably have to start turning away listings if the vendors are not immediately realistic on price. Otherwise too much work for no reward. Not the typical agents jam.

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:05am 1709589915

Agent friends have been doing this from Oct last year unless its something really special. Why waste time working on a listing that's delusional...?

by kiwiana02 | 6th Mar 24, 12:21pm 1709680919

Dont re firms and agents make some money even if house doesnt sell. Eg via their cut of fees for staging, photos, hoardings, advertising, auction fees etc?

by Market Interest | 6th Mar 24, 1:43pm 1709685793

They do, yes, and on top of that they're also basically advertising *themselves* at the vendor's expense, and gathering contacts during open homes etc.

by Dgm | 5th Mar 24, 11:39am 1709591941

How many of those are part of the centric article relating to arrears..

And the pressure on those defaulting on their payments will add to the pool of properties for sale.

With interest rates staying stubbornly high, huge pressure on all parties

by delboy | 5th Mar 24, 11:13am 1709590401

Suspect there’s a number of owners holding off putting their places on the market until July when the bright line reduces to 2 years so that log jam will only get worse.

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:25am 1709591116

100% this. The greed of spec tax free capital gains is strong. Lets see what happens as price's drop and the banks valuation calc's leverage backwards, exposing more and more. Yes....leverage works in reverse and has very ugly outcomes for the leverage its going to the moon believers.

by Flying high | 5th Mar 24, 11:41am 1709592101

How long will it take for the long anticipated extra big price drop

We know that some commenters are desperate buyers because sellers won't accept their pathetic lowball offers

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:46am 1709592367

Your guess is as good as mine. I thought it should have really unfolded post GFC but the ever cheaper debt kept the speculator corpse alive. Really looking like the life support system has failed now, hang onto your hats. That said perhaps Trump will again print a huge amount of USD and spray it around globally like he did last time. But perhaps not, witness the increase in price of Gold and Bitcoin as people increasingly call BS on the USD.

Who knows

by delboy | 5th Mar 24, 11:51am 1709592703

I don’t expect a big drop in the main cities mainly because of the demand from immigration.

Provincial towns are a different story.

by Blackbeard | 5th Mar 24, 12:22pm 1709594563

Most of the immigrants are students, they’re not in the position to buy.

by K.W. | 5th Mar 24, 3:36pm 1709606177

Most of the immigrants do not have permanent residency, and therefore cannot buy due to the Foreign Buyers Ban. Even those who enter the country on a PR visa have to wait for 12 months before becoming eligible to buy.

by rjn1 | 6th Mar 24, 2:45pm 1709689528

New arrivals don't need to buy houses directly to have an impact on prices, they only need to compete for rental accommodation - i.e. tighter rental market and higher rents tips the marginal rent/buy fence-sitter towards a purchase, not to mention the general effect of rental yield on prices.

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:59am 1709593176

pathetic lowball offers

Price based on the earning metrics of living and paying tax in the NZ economy. Fixed that for ya.

by Flying high | 5th Mar 24, 2:17pm 1709601446

Did you buy a beachfront / beach-town property, are you happy to update us on your search... TIA

by Hastings | 5th Mar 24, 12:52pm 1709596327

Today’s pathetic lowball will become tomorrow’s lifesaver💰🤴

by huttman | 5th Mar 24, 1:32pm 1709598767

perhaps you've got little carried away. when the prices kept rising, people say be careful as price cannot keep rising without risks, and they were right.

now when prices kept dropping, I'd say, be careful as nothing will keep dropping without sudden bounce back.

by makechange | 5th Mar 24, 3:13pm 1709604829

As things cool, the hot air in this market ain't feeling so bouncy.

What do you see which would provide buoyancy?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 1:15pm 1709597731

"Suspect there’s a number of owners holding off putting their places on the market until July when the bright line reduces to 2 years"

Why would they hold off? They'd just structure the paperwork so the sale occurred at the right time. Or as a friend is doing, come to a "rent then own" agreement.

Edited: I am in no way suggesting that people should do this without first seeking legal & accountancy advice.

by RickStrauss | 5th Mar 24, 12:46pm 1709595975

True, easy enough to be dishonest so as to evade tax due based on intent. Taxes are for the working plebs to pay.

by CN - new | 5th Mar 24, 1:01pm 1709596877

FYI, to my knowledge, the Bill Amendment reducing the Bright Line test to 2 years effective July 1, 2024 has not yet been passed, so it is not legislation currently.

Taxation (Bright-line Test for Residential Land) Bill 59-2 (2015), Government Bill – New Zealand Legislation

by huttman | 5th Mar 24, 1:37pm 1709599055

bright line test only works if you sell at profit. people who bought in the past 3 years are most likely at loss. and people who bought before 3 years ago already passed bright line limit.

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 2:31pm 1709602274

Currently a "campaign promise", not legislation as mentioned above.

by K.W. | 5th Mar 24, 3:39pm 1709606396

The Brightline sale date is triggered by the contract date not the settlement date. So as soon as you do the "paperwork" agreeing to dispose of your property at a future date you have triggered the Brightline, regardless of what you call it.

by refactornz | 5th Mar 24, 1:59pm 1709600348

Suspect there’s a number of owners holding off putting their places on the market until July when the bright line reduces to 2 years so that log jam will only get worse.

I'm not so sure about that. Why wait until July if the house is already under water? So those "number of owners" is really only people who bought in the 18 month window from March 2019 on.

by redcows1 | 5th Mar 24, 3:04pm 1709604298

To trump all those comments. A number of owners have no idea how the brightline tax works and simply think they are automatically due an enormous tax bill if they sell early without actually do the figures. Because Labour.

by balance | 5th Mar 24, 11:25am 1709591110

Some donors will be very unhappy about falling house prices.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 11:30am 1709591410

Do those donors care who loses?

by Averageman | 5th Mar 24, 11:32am 1709591561

The same donors with an excessive case of "Im so great" on the way up in the cycle. Well news flash cycles are....circular.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 11:27am 1709591279

Around this time last year, all banks banks were all over MSM in unison claiming the bottom was in, stirring a lot of activity while they started quietly de-risking.

It's very quiet out there now. RE.co.nz reporting on a brand new metric: engagement of listings. The demand is out there to be found at the right price. The supply is all coming to the market to find it.

Not a lot of evidence pointing to a rise in prices this year.

by mikekirk29 | 5th Mar 24, 12:18pm 1709594293

12 month sales about 8800

In the 12 months to Feb 2016 it was 13600

And in the interim how many 10s of thousands have been added to Auckland pop and at least 100,000 added to housing stock

Not a good market, to put it mildly

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 12:25pm 1709594736

Notice comparisons are no longer being made to pre-covid times? Now its back to post-GFC times.

But take care - post-GFC there were fewer dwellings in Auckland so all is not what it seems. (i.e. do the maths!)

by Chairman Moa | 5th Mar 24, 1:00pm 1709596841

There will be more to come

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3252938/chinese-investors-struggl…

But Tim will be here to announce that this is normal and there isn't a better time for FHB to snap them up!

by FHBtears | 5th Mar 24, 1:13pm 1709597638

This is the ultimate schadenfreude.

by John Mendel | 5th Mar 24, 1:35pm 1709598951

Gosh.. people here are so dramatic, they expect house prices to drop 50%.

The max you can get now or even 6 months from now, is an apartment/townhouse with a 10-20% discount, if you're looking for a 'house' (freehold + land)?! there's no point to wait cause the prices will continue to rise.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 1:26pm 1709598398

You just changed your outlook for townhouses from 10-20% "discount" to 5-10% "discount". It's no discount, the price paid is always market value.

And reality is that there is validity in waiting depending on your own financial position. Those who are ready, maybe now is good maybe it isn't. DYOR. Those who aren't ready, we can't seriously suggest none of them will ever have an opportunity to purchase, therefore there is a very valid point in them waiting to be in a better position to buy. Otherwise to all teenagers today: "Too bad, so sad. Sincerely, older people who 'know better'."

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 1:28pm 1709598502

Anecdotally, I've noticed a lot of unconsented work coming to market hoping for a cash buyer or developer to bowl and develop. Hope and pray.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:13pm 1709626430

Thats why people like to sell Ponsonby villas at the fall of the hammer, avoids all those little details

by Yvil | 5th Mar 24, 5:10pm 1709611803

"Gosh.. people here are so dramatic, they expect house prices to drop 50%"

These comments come from people who are (understandably) frustrated by the high prices of houses and who have therefore missed out buying a house at an earlier, lower price. Whilst I also think that house prices will continue to drop in 2024, the "popcorn" comments, which invariably get the most upvotes, are very immature.

by redcows1 | 5th Mar 24, 6:29pm 1709616574

Very shallow analysis of the comments there yvil. You needed to add that many see past the "wealth effect" to the widespread damage that these prices have done both economically and socially so absolutely don't want a bar of it.

by Yvil | 5th Mar 24, 6:36pm 1709616967

Very good analysis of the comments there yvil. Many use the damage that these prices have done both economically and socially, as an excuse to conceal the real reason for their frustration and anger, namely having missed out.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:05pm 1709625907

Maybe you have missed out by not selling at the top Yvil?

by Flying high | 5th Mar 24, 9:55pm 1709628943

IT Guy who do you know who sold at the top.

by blobbles | 5th Mar 24, 1:14pm 1709597675

Look at that graph and note (average price growth % year on year). The spring boom times which people were recently trumping as the turning point for house prices is over. And we are back to falling house prices again... house prices dictated almost exclusively by the availability of credit, as many of us have been saying. Claims that its about land use restrictions etc are not holding up well, its clearly almost solely about credit.

The graph also shows how terrible the RBNZ is doing. Their job is analogous to making that graph very stable, instead it is boom and bust for the past 5 years. But you know if you get to do your own analysis of how amazing you are, you are always going to say you are amazing...

by agnostium | 5th Mar 24, 5:53pm 1709614397

I think this is harsh on the RBNZ. There was an international pandemic, this was not a normal 5 years.

by Cote d'Azur | 5th Mar 24, 1:58pm 1709600301

Average price and median price both up.

Rates trending down.

With stops and starts 10% price increases this year.

2025 shaping up for a serious Bollinger year ✨🥂

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 6:00pm 1709614819

You smoking the green shoots..... agents will do ok as they just need sales even at lower prices = commission

by NZGecko | 5th Mar 24, 9:44pm 1709628299

You obviously smoking the hooch with Tones A...or eating from his rancid 10% Toblerone?

10% gains this year......Tui Billboard.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 10:08pm 1709629723

It must be some gooooood smoke

by Thats All Folks | 5th Mar 24, 2:50pm 1709603432

We can talk about “choice” when the yield and FHB quality of life improves.

Until such time, there is no choice, only deluded listings.

Sit on your savings and TD’s, they are getting stronger everyday.

Life is much better in the drivers seat….

by Bluekiwi Prope… | 5th Mar 24, 3:09pm 1709604591

Your full of shit Blackbeard, maybe a few upper end houses at most

by Thats All Folks | 5th Mar 24, 3:22pm 1709605349

Oh dear, seems the market is getting to you….

by Cote d'Azur | 5th Mar 24, 3:42pm 1709606540

Correct grammar would be "You're full of shit..."

by ChrisOfNoFame | 5th Mar 24, 10:29pm 1709630969

Removed post. I was talking complete nonsense.

Thanks to those that pointed it out.

The property in question actually returned about 5.7% p.a. from last purchase. One of the better ones today.

The one I meant to post of, the last sale was not a true on-market transaction.

by redcows1 | 5th Mar 24, 3:41pm 1709606477

Minus the very substantial costs of selling.

by JohnoNZ | 5th Mar 24, 3:52pm 1709607173

Looking at the property history its GV was set at $1,450,000 on the 1st June 2021 but the property last sold in March 2003 which was for $375,000 ?

by DavidJ | 5th Mar 24, 4:04pm 1709607878

yeah - I'd read that as sold 20% below GV. But this is still the madness (that needs correcting), decent 4 beddy (DO UP) in Botany Downs .. sells for 1.2 mil ..

by CN - new | 5th Mar 24, 3:56pm 1709607388

by refactornz | 5th Mar 24, 3:56pm 1709607390

Sad, unless they decided to take a loss on the first house in order to upgrade to a bigger or better located house for a cheaper price.

by Te Kooti | 5th Mar 24, 4:14pm 1709608484

Opportunity Knocks!

Renovate or Detonate!

Nest or Invest!

Land Bank!

How am I doing???

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 4:30pm 1709609448

Motivated vendors!

See to believe!

Opportunity knocks!

Potential galore!

Location location location!

Rare opportunity to own!

^{auction, no, BEO $1.45m, scrap that, PBN, wait, tender, PRICE DROP BEO $1.445}

by Frank Sobotka | 5th Mar 24, 9:16pm 1709626619

big money energy

by Yvil | 5th Mar 24, 5:18pm 1709612332

Chris, this is seriously fake news. The house was NOT bought for $1.45 M in 2021, that was simply its new CV. It was bought for $375k in 2003 so, actually, the owner made $825,000 profit after tax.

You're better than that, get your facts right!

by Nzdan | 5th Mar 24, 7:47pm 1709621245

A cool $40k p.a. or so of retirement savings.

by John Mendel | 5th Mar 24, 6:36pm 1709617017

Happy moments from an auction 3 weeks ago, my both neighbours sold their houses 10% above what they paid in 2023

Isn't that wonderful?! of course it does :)

by Thats All Folks | 5th Mar 24, 7:18pm 1709619511

This one time in band camp….

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 10:14pm 1709630094

Hey some of us live on those memories.....

by Onslowfloyd | 5th Mar 24, 8:51pm 1709625084

2021 sale wasn't a real sale.

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 4:29pm 1709609356

Can anyone tell me how house prices can decline when the cost of building new ones is always going up.

I built a house 3 years ago and I'm about to build a similar one which will be much more expensive. Labour, foundations and insulation to name just 3 items.

I've spent $50,000 so far and the resource consent is still with the council.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 4:38pm 1709609895

Yea, heaps; land loses value, credit crunch, population decline, recession, change in policy.

Rapid rise in insurance costs causing difficulty getting finance, big moves here in flood and ponding prone areas as I'm sure you're aware.

Japan is a good case study, entirely different but a clear example that it's possible, and should be possible. Just doesn't align with some peoples world view.

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 5:11pm 1709611913

Land won't lose value around Auckland, I can tell you that for sure.

The cost of subdivision, consent and inspection fees will never decline. Even building a house is a bureaucratic nightmare. The population isn't declining, it's through the roof, hundreds of thousands of immigrants in the last couple of years. 195,000 migrants in the 2023 year.

Everyone knows where flood-prone areas are, so no surprises there.

Punters will look back in a couple of years and wished they'd dipped their toes in the water.

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 5:14pm 1709612047

The cost of subdivision, consent and inspection fees will never decline. Even building a house is a bureaucratic nightmare.

But this can change with policy.

The population isn't declining

The rate of population increase is rapidly declining almost everywhere. Pays to check this out before making 30-40 year bets. A lot of immigration is now unfortunately crowding existing rentals. They do not have the money demand, nor incomes.

Everyone knows where flood-prone areas are, so no surprises there.

Yes, including insurers, and insurance underpins the ability to get finance in these areas.

Punters will look back in a couple of years and wished they'd dipped their toes in the water.

Is this literal or figurative?

by DTRH | 5th Mar 24, 5:32pm 1709613131

Many people leaving New Zealand large amount of people you call immigrants are on working visas and are struggling to find work. Last week the government said it will work with councils to open up land for development so land price’s will obviously go down, wingman you should read the news more because most of your comment was nonsense

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 5:58pm 1709614712

Have you watched the property auctions live on the Internet?

Guess who the buyers are.........immigrants.

I recently sold a house........to immigrants ....... and got the price I was aiming for.

by DTRH | 5th Mar 24, 6:55pm 1709618108

Government only announced opening up land last week from what I can gather wingman is that you built 3 years ago and also purchased land to build more you have a lot of skin in the game so can understand your concern but in my opinion land prices are where the biggest losses will be as next phase of housing price crash gets underway.

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 9:25pm 1709627123

I bought land on the outskirts of Auckland 9 months ago. There's huge amounts of work planned for that area, some already underway, I've done the homework, fortunes are going to be made.

But not by anyone else here.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:27pm 1709627264

No one? not one of us saw this coming and got out at the top, only to be ready to pounce at mortgagee sales.....

By this time next year Rodney, https://youtu.be/OxLrsn9ZsiQ

by CN - new | 5th Mar 24, 5:43pm 1709613792

"Land won't lose value around Auckland, I can tell you that for sure.

In June 2021, a developer / land speculator paid $5,100,000 ($5,400 per sq m of land)

Sold in December 2022 for $3,680,000 ($3,923 per sq m) - 27.8% lower.

New lower land cost for the current owner / developer.

https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/epsom/12-claude-road/R5XWY

Also note: that on an inflation adjusted basis, the price fall was -32.5% - so much for the narrative that land prices keep up with inflation.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 5:56pm 1709614604

Most nov21 buyers have taken a bath, now comes a cold shower

by gnx | 5th Mar 24, 5:44pm 1709613875

yeah....

the land component crashes

the merchants go broke

tradies compete for jobs with sharpened pencils

the whole industry restructures to become competitive...many go broke, some survive

if we restricted the volume of vehicle licences offered then we would find second hand cars going up in price...all of them

think about it

by kiwiana02 | 6th Mar 24, 12:33pm 1709681607

Cost of land falls

Also houses do depreciate.

And market forces (supply & demand) sets cost so in a market with few buyers and desperate sellers prices may end up lower than replacement cost.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 10:15pm 1709630151

Log jams, they tend to cause a dam, then the water level rises and eventually the dam breaks flooding downriver and causing carnage..... anyone else starting to see why I say there is not enough borrowing power to settle everything thats for sale.... not at 7% mortgages, probably not even at 5.8%

by John Mendel | 5th Mar 24, 6:58pm 1709618320

I wonder why this house sold for 708K?! flooded!

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42521927/residential/sale/1-77-nile-road-m…

If this house sells at auction let's say for 900K, it'll enter the statistic of a property sold well below CV.

Now, how can you put this house and a 'perfect' one (no issues, new build, freehold, big garden etc..) under the same statistics?!

by malamah | 5th Mar 24, 8:03pm 1709622185

Land value $850k, sold for $708k. Flood. Oop don’t tell wingman.

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 9:12pm 1709626371

You guys are obsessed with flooding and global warming. Global warming's a scam.

Just like running out of oil, running out of water, the ozone layer disappearing and the ice caps melting.

Running out of water...can you believe suckers believed that? There's one born every minute.

by FHBtears | 5th Mar 24, 9:00pm 1709625609

Global warming's a scam.

Is the earth also flat?

by wingman | 5th Mar 24, 9:17pm 1709626630

People believe anything.

The scientists tell you what they're told to tell you because their jobs depend on it. Where I live, this summer was colder than last, there's been no hurricanes, flooding or heavy rain, and winter 2023 was colder than winter 2022.

Dupes rioted in the 1970's because they believed oil was running out.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:18pm 1709626735

Did you study one of the STEM subjects wingers or are you a spinner?

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 8:28am 1709666910

I did maths, English, chemistry, physics and mechanics.

by agnostium | 6th Mar 24, 9:22am 1709670139

Mechanics and physics? Isn't mechanics a branch of physics?

by FHBtears | 5th Mar 24, 9:35pm 1709627750

People believe anything.

Such as irrefutable and objective scientific evidence?

Though I'm sure your anecdote of the temperatures at your house is just as valid.

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 12:37pm 1709681866

Can you imagine what would happen to any reputable scientist who decided to disagree with the accepted wisdom and global warming theory?

I've got several books on scientific and human gullibility and the psychology that drives it. I had a friend who was a minister of religion. He confided in me that he wasn't really 100% sure there was a God, but he couldn't possibly reveal his scepticism.

About 40 years ago lots of books were written about how we were 'running out' of oil. It became an obsession, there were even films and documentaries produced about the coming cataclysm.

One of them was "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons. The theme was "the coming Saudi oil shock", and the ruination that would follow.

We're all still waiting.....and easily-led people are going into debt, and cajoled into buying rapidly depreciating electric cars to 'save the planet'.

by malamah | 6th Mar 24, 11:15am 1709676914

The interesting part is that you brought up global warming in this thread.

Regardless of whether you believe or not, there is an increase in weather events causing floods and erosion. Insurers are all over it with technology. Fingers crossed for a cash buyer though, who will want a "discount" for taking on the risk themselves, as seen by the price set on the property at the top of this thread. 17% below "land value".

So now we've come full circle to the original answer, which was that flooding and ponding can cause land price to decline. Riverhead was it?

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 12:47pm 1709682436

Did you notice how all those 'scientists', weather 'expert's, fawning politicians and 'environmentalists' flew to Dubai in hundreds of private jets for COP28?

That event had the highest carbon footprint in history.

And you expect me to believe they care about the planet...hilarious. There was so many private jets, they dropped the attendees off and flew to other airports for parking, because there was insufficient at Dubai. Dubai hosts COP28, an emirate that relies on and exploits oil...what next?

The 'flooding' in Riverhead you refer to is a minuscule area known to flood, it's nothing new. A conglomerate wants to build 1,800 houses, the main reason for temporary rejection is the lack of shops, roading and other facilities. There's currently a massive amount of works on SH16, and later on that will spill over into the Riverhead area.

by malamah | 6th Mar 24, 2:45pm 1709689554

the main reason for temporary rejection is the lack of shops, roading and other facilities

Nah.

It's flooding.

With source and all.

Something something, again, I never brought up or referred to climate change but feel free to uphold your side of the argument if it makes you feel better.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:17pm 1709626656

his land is, flat at the bottom of a valley, got it real cheap......

by own4d | 6th Mar 24, 11:55am 1709679355

wingman.

Global warming is no scam. There is proof everywhere.

You also mention other 'scams' like running out of oil & water, ozone disappearing and ice caps melting

All true.

You are delusional across the entire board.

Old age?

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 12:14pm 1709680448

In the '70's dupes rioted and set fire to gas guzzling cars because we were 'running out' of oil. There's no shortage of water around here, and new technology is locating and exploiting natural resources way more efficiently than in the past.

The ice caps melting...hahaha...meanwhile Alaska's freezing in record cold.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 1:14pm 1709684042

meanwhile Alaska's freezing in record cold.

Source, please?

The reputable parts of the internet are littered with articles, reports and studies on the melting ice caps. Last year, 2023, saw the hottest arctic summer (July-September) on record. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/warmest-arctic-summer-on-record-is-evidence-of-accelerating-climate-change

Then again, perhaps you feel safer in the corners of the internet where the earth is flat (it's ironic that the Flat Earth Society is now a global organisation..), where NASA staged the 1969 moon landing and where the Covid vaccines caused dreadful gene mutations that will soon cause the vaccinated to all drop dead.

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 2:31pm 1709688682

The global warming conference...COP28, or maybe I should call it Copout28, where hundreds of private jets arrived that caused the biggest carbon footprint in history...not bad for "environmentalists". In oil-producing Dubai of all places.

You've gotta remember humans love a cause, it makes them feel good, history's littered with failed 'causes', I could reel off heaps of them, but it would probably cause the website to crash there's so many. I've got a book here...it's called "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".

https://alaskapublic.org/2024/01/30/alaskans-see-bitter-cold-record-bre…

You know how to make money? Bet against the herd.

by RickStrauss | 6th Mar 24, 2:26pm 1709688361

1. Why would you choose the ozone issue as an example of something fake? That makes you look ridiculously ill-informed.

2. Why when you run out of arguments do you resort to the talkback trope of "all these scientists fly to climate conferences", when it's so obviously silly? Because 1) very few people actually go to the conferences, and 2) where should people seeking to influence policy go to apart from places where policy is to be discussed and influenced?

It's time to start reading more widely.

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 2:35pm 1709688903

Very few people went to the COP28? There were 85,000 participants and 150 heads of state, arriving in hundreds of private jets, So many they had to take-off and park at other airports.

And fly back to Dubai to pick up the 'experts'.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 2:51pm 1709689869

How is the fact that those experts sadly contributed copious amounts of CO2 emissions to our one and only Earth related to whether climate change is true or not?

Why did they fly there in all those planes? Human nature and the status quo, obviously. Does this disprove climate change? Perhaps to those who suck at following rational, logical arguments.

I know that driving my car to work contributes to CO2 emissions, yet I still do it, as much as I love my kids and want to leave the world a better place for them. Is that because I believe climate change is a hoax? Not even close.

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 3:14pm 1709691276

People are gullible alright.

Heaps of suckers have been cajoled into buying battery cars to 'save the planet'. Pretty shortly many of these unsuspecting buyers are going to come off their low interest rate deals and be stung with market rates.

That's going to hurt, especially at the moment with interest rates elevated. There might be swarms of battery vehicles come onto the market.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 3:25pm 1709691929

People are gullible alright.

Finally, we agree about something.

I can't help but point out that changing to a different subject is not helping you look less gullible yourself, given your other arguments in this thread.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 2:44pm 1709689454

Flippen heck! Unbelievable.

Did you even read the article you just linked?! If you did, you'd have seen phrases such as:

National Weather Service climate researcher Brian Brettschneider, from our Ask a Climatologist segments, says that while the snow is notable — and yes, temperatures have been cold recently — we’re still living in an Alaska that’s warmer than it used to be.

And:

The cold that they (Fairbanks) had the other day, which got down to minus 43, you know, now that happens about, on average, once or so per year. And historically it happened 10 or 12 times a year. So it can still happen, it can still get that cold, but much less frequency. And the deep cold, the 50s below (zero) used to happen every year, and now it may happen once a decade.

And:

So for the month to date through (Jan. 28), Alaska is just slightly warmer than normal for the month of January. And we were half a degree warmer in the month of December. And those are against the 1991 to 2020 normal periods, which is much warmer than previous decades. So for recent years, this is kind of an average year. Historically, this is still quite a warm winter.

Is this article your proof that "Alaska's freezing in record cold"???

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 7:00pm 1709704804

Where's all this bad weather I've been hearing about? Not here, it's been colder than usual. No storms, no hurricanes, hardly used the aircon all summer.

It's classic case of herd instinct..when the herd get going, it's pretty hard to stop. People love a cause, it might be nuclear weapons, racism, religion, hoarding, Covid 19, running out of oil, the US Capitol riots, demonstrations over the Omega navigation system, the Queen Street riot, the 1992 LA riots - history's littered with examples of sheep syndrome.

The 1987 NZ stock market crash was a classic. I made a heap of money, and sold after witnessing the herd behaviour at the stock exchange. Whoopin' and hollerin' as stocks blasted off to unheard-of heights. Until Oct 1987, when the chickens came home to roost.

Adolf Hitler was an expert on herd behaviour...he said, "tell them lies, and the bigger the lies the more they'll believe it".

by malamah | 6th Mar 24, 4:15pm 1709694931

Big storm ripped through last year, who knows when the next one comes. Here's some footage but might be a bit close to home.

by wingman | 6th Mar 24, 5:15pm 1709698502

The 'storm'.

Yes there was damage on the East Coast and at the West Coast not far from where I live. Not unusual, there's been tragedies before, the sinking of the Wahine was an example. It was pretty tame here, a fair bit of rain, very windy and local flooding, but nothing unusual. The flooding around here is more than likely because of the number of houses being built and the river being clogged with weeds.

I used to live in the Pacific, violent storms were a regular event, but the locals never used to preach 'global warming' or how the islands are sinking. Funafuti is supposed to be sinking......when? I used to visit there, the locals didn't tell me at the time that the place was going underwater. And it hasn't.

A former teacher of mine lost his wife and daughter in a landslip in Muriwai in 1965 after 140mm of rain. All been done before.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 4:24pm 1709695461

I have friends and family in other countries. They tell interesting stories about the weather in their cities and towns.

You should perhaps try and get out a bit more. I find the data and even the anecdotes out there more relevant than your alleged aircon usage.

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 9:20am 1709756443

I "need to get out more"? Before I retired I was a pilot flying global air routes for 46 years, looking at Ram Air, and Static Air temperature gauges and nothing was any different.

I can say in all that time, I never noticed any significant changes in the weather.

by tuisbest | 6th Mar 24, 3:27pm 1709692048

Bet against the herd.

Great advice, as long as you're also betting against the stupid.

by IT GUY | 5th Mar 24, 9:22pm 1709626975

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3254220/goldman-sa…