Auction numbers dip for the second week in a row

Property / news

Fewer homes being auctioned but the sales rate remains firmly stuck on a third

18th Mar 24, 10:08am by Greg Ninness

The number of residential properties being offered at auction declined for the second week in a row last week but there was no change in the overall sales rate.

Interest.co.nz monitored 489 properties offered at auction around the country in the week of 9-15 March, down from 573 the previous week and 619 the week before that.

That suggests the usual summer surge in activity may already have peaked, but with March usually being the busiest month of the year, there may yet be a late jump in auction activity in the last two weeks of the month.

However there was no change in the overall sales rate, with 166 properties selling under the hammer giving a sales rate of 33%, more or less where it has been for the last month.

Where properties that sold were able to be matched with their rating valuations, 39% achieved prices that were equal to or above those valuations.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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124 Comments

by Yvil | 18th Mar 24, 10:16am 1710710164

BAU

by danicriss | 18th Mar 24, 10:51am 1710712294

Quite!

Can you say the same about the mounting unsold housing stock?

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 2:00pm 1710723628

No - just tipped 44,000 listings on TM. I've been following for the last number of weeks. Around 100 net added per day for over a month and no signs of slowdown yet. Typical March without the sales maybe.

by Crazy Horse | 18th Mar 24, 11:29am 1710714583

For Auckland now down to 9.57% selling for CV or over - out of an original 376 properties on offer.

I can see the vultures circling high in the azure blue sky, over the limitless, hazy brown, dusty plains ...... wings outstretched .....watching and waiting.....all the patience they will ever need ......under that hot. blazing desert sun.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 12:29pm 1710718161

Hi Crazy Horse,

Your second paragraph above provides useful insight into your cognition / thought patterns - even if the link with property analysis is a tad obscure…….

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 18th Mar 24, 12:27pm 1710718021

This article is void of a "Spruikers rise" that's for sure!

by JustAnOpinion | 18th Mar 24, 12:27pm 1710718047

wow, such irony lol

by Retired-Poppy | 18th Mar 24, 12:29pm 1710718152

Hot from the keyboard of the Master of price fixing too!

by JustAnOpinion | 18th Mar 24, 12:35pm 1710718511

lol RP you know you edited your original comment to take out your own ad hominem attack...

by Retired-Poppy | 18th Mar 24, 12:58pm 1710719927

Yeah I did. TTP, edited out his worst insults aimed at Crazy horse. He now knows better than get deleted... 😂

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 1:36pm 1710722185

Dear Retired-Poppy,

You've become so boring and fixated, you'd make eternity last even longer.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 18th Mar 24, 1:49pm 1710722948

LOL! - Good news will one day make it's way to your computer screen. Until then, you'll need to learn and endure :)

Stay strong.

Edit, it speaks volumes about you when FHB's getting a greater financial foothold isn't regarded as good news!

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 11:51pm 1710759100

Hi Retired-Poppy,

I can't recall a (former) FHB ever regretting / lamenting having bought a house - either here or anywhere else. Notably, FHBs don't seem interested in selling up their homes and going back to renting - or returning home to live with Mum and Dad.

If there are disgruntled people in newly purchased homes out there, then let's hear from them......

Sadly, those we hear from most of the time are the DGM who, ad infinitum, have urged FHBs not to buy a house. That's despite the crescendo in house prices over decades - not just the last decade.

TTP

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 3:19pm 1710728379

Hi - millennial here - two friends regret their purchase, three colleagues considering moving out of their OO to rent (one with house on the market already), one friend is looking at walking away from their life savings before getting the keys, and two in wider circles who have already had to do just that.

You should get out more.

Edit: Oh and as for the investors I know, rents would nearly need to double against current prices for them to be interested again.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 6:09pm 1710738571

Hi malamah,

Would be good to hear from these people first-hand, so that your comment (above) can be properly verified.

I do hope you're not telling porkies, like all the other DGM. 🤭

Much looking forward to hearing from any actual FHB who regrets having made a house purchase......

TTP

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 4:13pm 1710731623

Feel free to put out a nation-wide survey if you're so concerned. Make sure to advertise Property Brokers as you do. Until then, it's your word against mine on an internet forum, and we all know how honest your word is Tim.

Edit: (Yes I can edit comments too, but like to make it clear where I have changed so as to not change my argument willy nilly) I can't say many recent FHB who are in financial stress are too concerned about current auction figures, you're grasping at a small pool of people interested in auctions who also frequent interest.co enough to have an account and comment openly about their personal stresses. Again, either get out more, or cold call 10,000 people.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 4:26pm 1710732380

Hi malamah

I'm calling for actual (former) FHB's - who regret their house/home purchase decision - to now come forward.

Hard evidence is the best evidence. 😁

Let's see how many come forward - 10? 50? 100? 200? Interesting to wait and see........

TTP

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 4:15pm 1710731729

As stated above; I can't say many recent FHB who are in financial stress are too concerned about current auction figures, you're grasping at a small pool of people interested in auctions who also frequent interest.co enough to have an account and comment openly about their personal stresses. Again, either get out more, or cold call 10,000 people.

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 4:14pm 1710731652

. (duplicate)

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 5:18pm 1710735502

Hi malamah,

You could make yourself useful by encouraging all your disgruntled FHB friends/colleagues to come forth and take up TTP's simple challenge. All-comers welcome - whether they purchased via private treaty, tender, auction, BEO or whatever else.

Maybe you could create a "snowball" effect, malamah, and get scores of them to respond....... Wouldn't that be better / face-saving than ending up with a mere dozen or two?

C'mon, all you disgruntled / disaffected FHBs out there. Let's hear your tales of woe! Roll-up, roll-up and be counted!

Uncle TTP 😊

by Crazy Horse | 18th Mar 24, 4:35pm 1710732931

Too busy working paying that mortgage to the banksters mate

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 4:41pm 1710733279

What would be really interesting - are there any buyers of the 2020 -2022 period who regret their purchase, who purchased via Property Brokers?

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 5:03pm 1710734614

Disappointed to hear you're creating "excuses" for backing down.

Seriously, it's rather pointed that we seldom (if ever) get posts on this blog from people who regret having entered into home ownership...... especially in the light of the multitude of posts from Retired-Poppy / DGM forever proclaiming that first-home ownership is such a bad thing to get into.

If (former) FHBs have had such bad experiences with home ownership that they've happily gone back to renting (or living back home with parents/grandparents/siblings), one would think that at least a few of them would come here to raise red flags - if only to warn others.

I'd genuinely like to read some posts of the above nature from any upset (former) FHBs, just to hear about it from grass roots level. So, if you're one such person, please feel very welcome to give us an honest account of your negative experience.

TTP

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 5:23pm 1710735780

Hi, I see you replied to Crazy Horse thinking you were replying to me.

No point in debating, I can see your tactics are to win at all costs rather than accepting any realities people are actually facing in the real world - and being prepared to discuss those. The rest of your posts are filled with concerning toxicity.

I think you've already made your point; null. So feel free to have the final word, and happy to leave it at that.

by HouseMouse | 18th Mar 24, 6:36pm 1710740167

Someone with a bit of human empathy in their world view would understand that for people who are under water or approaching that state, talking on a forum like this is probably the last thing on their mind.

for what it’s worth, where I live three people have put their places up for sale. I know all of them to a greater or lesser extent (I was head of the residents association). All are under severe cost of living pressure. I don’t know if they regret buying 3-4 years ago. Most of them seem deluded around the prices they think they will sell for. I imagine for some if not all of them, once they sell there will be some feelings of regret, as the prices they get will be similar to what they paid or even 5-7% lower (most seem to be thinking they will get 10-15% more than they bought for)

The other thing I am noticing is them and many other residents are trying to sell lots of household items. This has really spiked up in the last 1-3 months.

lots of people are hurting right now

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 6:43pm 1710740631

"Someone with a bit of human empathy in their world view would understand that for people who are under water or approaching that state, talking on a forum like this is probably the last thing on their mind."

People who don't understand or lack human empathy might have character traits consistent with narcissistic sociopaths.

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 7:19pm 1710742769

Probably trading up to a bigger ppty or leaving the country and will be excited what the future holds

by HouseMouse | 18th Mar 24, 7:40pm 1710744043

do you actually read what people write?

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 8:22pm 1710746547

Yes. Do you actually read what you wrote

There fixed the obvious flaw

by HouseMouse | 15th Mar 24, 1:55pm

'Hands up if you think I’m a muppet’

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 8:56pm 1710748595

Interesting.

I thought Flying High was better than the response than they chose to give - it seems I was mistaken.

Ask a mature honest adult question and the responder chooses a response that demonstrates a maturity level that is consistent with an adolescent child. How can anyone take a person that demonstrates that behaviour seriously? Can't really have mature adult conversations with people who choose to act immaturely. What that commenter doesn't realise is that with those types of chosen responses they are undermining their own credibility to be taken seriously.

People reading this forum are likely to be legal adults (i.e over 16 years of age), however some choose to behave in a manner that is consistent with an adolescent child.

Answer copied below in order to preserve evidence of any subsequent edit by the author:

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 8:22pm

Yes. Do you actually read what you wrote

There fixed the obvious flaw

by HouseMouse | 15th Mar 24, 1:55pm

'Hands up if you think I’m a muppet’

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 9:28pm 1710750485

Wow youre really monotonous and conceited. Thats why I can't be bothered with your repetitive comments ;) I made a perfectly reasonable and logical comment (one comment up) that hurt HMs ego which he couldn't handle

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 9:51pm 1710751896

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 9:11pm

Wow youre really monotonous and conceited. Thats why I can't be bothered with your repetitive comments ;)

Merely shining a light on adolescent behaviour.

Name calling behaviour is immature.

If people want to be taken seriously, then respond with mature responses.

It's entirely your choice how you choose to respond.

People are free to choose to ignore my comments. That is entirely their choice.

People are free to choose whatever opinions they have of me. That is entirely their choice. Their opinions of me are also entirely their business (and entirely none of my business).

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 9:58pm 1710752325

You probably choose not to notice that HM has a huge tip for himself. So he can't handle the fact that others are moving on with their lives, trading up the property ladder and selling up to move to new jobs while he is stuck with his depreciating apartment at age 55 and half a million mortgage. He is doing better than me as I am still stuck renting but he doesnt see it that way. As soon as he thinks others have noticed then he gets nasty with "can you actually read" type comments. Its funny

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 11:51pm 1710759081

"he gets nasty with "can you actually read" type comments"

For sake of clarification, here's what HouseMouse actually wrote - "do you actually read what people write?"

This is very different from "can you actually read"

"He is doing better than me"

The house price bulls frequently repeat their own narrative that those warning about the high house price risks are motivated by envy is just nonsense - it is not envy, it is just simple economics. The house price bulls don't see or even understand the counter argument on the sustainability or affordability of house prices in certain markets in NZ.

Some of the house price bulls are property promoters with vested financial self interests.

To understand the perspective of the house price bears requires open mindedness, a genuine desire to understand and a shift in paradigms.

by Flying high | 19th Mar 24, 7:06am 1710785203

Which category do I fall in, bull or bear. Have you heard of healthy markets? The question "do you actually read what people write?" Is not a reasonable question posed by a reasonable person. For the reasons I've stated. Over to you now Chief

by Nzdan | 19th Mar 24, 8:47am 1710791260

I didn't reply to say anything of relevance, just wanted to continue the chain of ever narrowing width of the comment boxes.

by CN - new | 19th Mar 24, 9:19am 1710793173

"Have you heard of healthy markets?"

1) How do you define a "healthy" market?

Or how would you define an "unhealthy" market?

2) which market(s) do you think are currently unhealthy? (if any)

by dollar_bill | 19th Mar 24, 11:51am 1710802316

The secret is not to engage with man children (99% are definately male) nor take it personally . I believe there is some historical context you are missing here but yes, we all know who they are and I must admit to popping in to their threads for the occasional jibe/flame/troll/laugh.

Having said that, man child Trump will wolf-whistle to fascists with the resulting triggering of anti-facists and America will burn... again. Thankfully, we're only on a financial website comments section.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 10:30pm 1710754224

No properly informed person would question that many people with mortgages are currently burdened, financially...... That's obvious and I have much empathy for them.

Clearly, however, many (most?) of these mortgagors would rather bear $financial$ hardship than sell up and rent, or go live with family members, or seek subsidised/ social/ charitable housing (with, no doubt, some of them still facing financial hardship).

It's now gone 10.00pm and there's still no response to my challenge (as articulated above)........ Not a solitary person has come forward, first-hand, to say they regretted making their first home purchase.

In contrast, over the years, there have been literally thousands of posts here urging FHBs (and others) not to purchase because it would be "bad" for them.

How can this be? Interesting to ponder........

TTP

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 7:05pm 1710741946

Gosh you are a tormented soul.

by Crazy Horse | 18th Mar 24, 4:18pm 1710731908

Hi malamah, thank you - you raise very relevant situations happening out there, which shows a "true picture" of the state of the market for FHB's

As far as the "astute" property investoor is concerned, for Auckland anyway, it's a basket case - small, "crushed in", poorly built apartments - many on busy roads, with no parking. While anything else, even if the property is great, the high interest rates, inflated expenses etc are outpacing any increase in rental returns. While the "kicker" is when there is no capital gains, you are primarily going backwards.

In my experience you need to have at least an 8% gross return on rental property - you will not find that in the Auckland market.

A relative of mine who has been working overseas for well over 25 years is not going to buy in Auckland - they may look in the Tauranga area, otherwise I think they will end up in Australia.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 4:36pm 1710733014

""true picture" of the state of the market for FHB's "

The issue is not just first home buyers.

The issue is relevant to most buyers in the 2020 - 2022 period. This includes multiple owner occupier groups - first home buyers, upgraders, downsizers, relocators. It also includes non owner occupier buyers - developers, property investors, property traders.

A friend who bought in August of 2021 will also be facing the issue of a lower house price valuation - they are an upgrader.

Here are some other reports of losses. The common denominator is that they are buyers in the 2020 -2022 period.. Buyers of this period may represent an increasing number of proportion of sellers.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/301010041/the-wellington-hous…

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 4:43pm 1710733403

TTP doesn't know them, so they aren't real and don't count.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 4:57pm 1710734264

Some more:

1) https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/301009099/new-zealands-unluck…

2) https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ive-got-to-face-reality-5m-mission-bay-p…

3) https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/05/23/this-is-the-biggest-loss-on-the-housi…

4) https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/128808497/the-five…

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 5:14pm 1710735272

Some developers were selling in bulk to avoid being forced to a mortgagee sale, even though they were facing millions of dollars of loss.

Many had bought at the peak but the market had dropped 30%, he said.

by Retired-Poppy | 18th Mar 24, 6:38pm 1710740299

TTP, you certainly lack empathy. As at December, according to Centrix, there were 20,800 (and growing) overdue mortgages representing 1.45%. Many of these potential mortgagee sales are recent FHB's and are most likely to regret their predicament and be too ashamed and embarrassed to broadcast it on any medium. Loss of equity (financial wiggle room) is an awful trap to find oneself in - can you imagine it? - obviously not.

These people who likely bought 2021/22 paid way too much for their homes and now they're being charged interest for paying a premium.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 11:22pm 1710757363

Worthwhile keeping this as a record as the author seems to be making constant edits after the original comment

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 10:54pm

Hi Retired-Poppy,

I can't recall a (former) FHB ever regretting / lamenting having bought a house - either here or anywhere else. Notably, FHBs don't seem interested in selling up their homes and going back to renting - or returning home to live with Mum and Dad.

If there are disgruntled people in newly purchased homes out there, then let's hear from them......

Sadly, those we hear from most of the time are the DGM who, ad infinitum, have urged FHBs not to buy a house. That's despite the crescendo in house prices over decades - not just the last decade.

TTP

by Crazy Horse | 18th Mar 24, 1:29pm 1710721784

TPP... we all know if you were to buy an investment property in Auckland now, your really need to go back to Year 11 math...You know there are people, on the sidelines just "watching & waiting" ... And a wee economic fact for you... NZ's GDP per capita is currently falling... So there goes the immigration "so called" factor

All the best with your property endeavours, while I post on this site for the benefit of OTHERS

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 1:38pm 1710722310

Dear Retired-Poppy,

You've become so boring and fixated, you'd make eternity last even longer.

TTP

And the same applies to you, Crazy Horse.

TTP

by Amokk | 18th Mar 24, 4:44pm 1710733492

You are 100% a troll Tim but at least we can take your yarns with a solid cup of reality

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 5:17pm 1710735429

With all due respect, Amokk, I don't give a toss what you think/say about me...... But you're entitle to your feelings - hot or cold.

I'm happy to wait patiently for any actual FHB to respond to the simple challenge that I've issued today.

If we get some straightforward, truthful responses from actual FHBs (even if just a couple of dozen) then we might garner a more objective basis for dialogue.

TTP

by Amokk | 18th Mar 24, 6:17pm 1710739060

'If we get some straightforward, truthful responses'.........yes if only we could Tim.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 6:53pm 1710741224

Well, Amokk, I believe we can....... 😀

But hasten to add, not from you. ☹️

TTP

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 7:01pm 1710741665

'If we get some straightforward, truthful responses'

Can people expect truthful responses from people who have previously demonstrated untruthful behaviour?

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

Life is way too short to choose to waste any time with people who have demonstrated any of the following behavioural traits:

1) untrustworthy

2) dishonest

3) narcissists

4) sociopaths

by Toye | 18th Mar 24, 12:12pm 1710717157

Yeah back to 2022 BAU

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 10:35am 1710711301

13% chance of getting CV by going to auction. I’d guess these are well presented homes in good location?

Not screaming “healthy market” at this point, especially given the built up economic waters that still need to flow under the bridge.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 18th Mar 24, 11:37am 1710715070

"I’d guess these are well presented homes in good location?"

Mainly, yes. Exceptionally well presented, indicating quite a bit has been spent.

But also due to some weird CV anomalies.

The CVs are set via a desktop exercise so they have significant variances. E.g. two houses, side by side, both 20 years old, same number of rooms and similar layouts but one has been well maintained and has tasteful alterations & updates. The other is pretty much 'as is' from 20 years ago. One has a CV much too low and the other much too high CV. That's an extreme example but similar example abound. My street is another example. 2/3 rented and owned by land-bankers, and 1/3 owned by OOs. All have similar CVs. But stand outside each house and which are owned by OOs becomes clear. CVs are not much more than a 'thumb suck' for rating purposes.

by Nellbell | 18th Mar 24, 1:10pm 1710720656

Agree with all of this, but I have seen a concerning thing happen where no one has a clue what properties are worth… including agents…. Such extreme volatility with multibids pushing prices hundreds of thousands of dollars above CV then CVsgetting reset at astoundingly high values only to now be correcting back again to who knows where. All this in a market with hardly any sales to use as comparisons. So some… including agents often at the insistence of vendors appear to be falling back on the “best” of the website values. In our area you can look at a real estate listing on Realestate.co.nz which will have and “what can I expect to pay for this” estimate that claims it is computer generated that is likely based on HPI and CV data. Same house listed on Trademe has its own “ computer generated” estimated I think coming from homes.co.nz …… these estimates are often are hundreds of thousands of dollars apart. Vendors are looking at the best estimate, buyers are looking at lowest estimate, or what it last sold for or CV….. but mostly just sitting on their hands for now. Once the market settles down again, we can go back to looking at a bunch of houses all listed around the same price and judge for ourselves which one is best.

by Nellbell | 18th Mar 24, 1:36pm 1710722184

Here is an example of confused values and the vender/buyer split. Not a good example as is going to mortgagee sale, but IS a good example as I don’t think anybody now would be paying above the Oct 2021 sale price in any sale method at the moment, yet the estimate is significantly above that ( using homes.co data):

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/lifestyle-property/wel…

On the other real estate site. An estimate more like what I would have considered to be right for our area currently… on good day mid to high $1millions on a bad day back near its 2020 CV.

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42519071/rural/sale/447-te-whiti-road-mast…

what we are seeing here is vendors taking the higher of the “estimates” to set price. Some agents are saying they are only taking listings with reasonable asking prices now.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 6:51pm 1710741097

FYI, this valuation algorithm site currently values the property at $2,540,000 (above the $2,300,000 paid in October 2021) and up 37% in less than 3 months since the 15 Dec 2023 valuation of $1,850,000

https://homes.co.nz/address/masterton/homebush/447-te-whiti-road/kq0pO

For those who don't know - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127537672/homesconz-criticised-for-all…

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 10:42am 1710711760

Auckland region, only 10% of properties auctioned achieving RV prices

by Dale Smith | 18th Mar 24, 11:05am 1710713122

Before 1995, almost all housing in NZ was sold either by exclusive, or general listing.

Auctions were for either mortgagee sales so banks could say they had let the market decide, even if that meant getting a lower price (they would just sue the mortgagee for any shortfall difference anyway), or for very exclusive properties where money was not so much a limiting factor and were emotional buys.

The growth of auctions from 1995 on was supported by supply not equalling demand, in that there were mainly a minimum of two buyers from every one property. And as we already know, it is the underbidder at an auction that sets the price of what the successful bidder pays.

And of course, auctions enabled RE agents to get the seller to pay to promote the RE brand, just as much as the house.

The use of auctions is a symptom of a speculative housing system, and the less they need to be used the better.

by earnedincome | 18th Mar 24, 11:11am 1710713471

I know in Australia selling via auction was always considered something that could work well in a hot market, but wasn't preferred when seller sentiment wasn't great.

Assuming it's the same here, it would be interesting to see what has happened to the number of properties going to auction vs total properties on the market over the last 4 years or so.

Could be an interesting measure of what is happening with regard to seller sentiment.

by CapitalNone | 18th Mar 24, 11:30am 1710714603

I think the '% of sales above or equal to their rating valuation' is a misleading number as this is a percentage of the percentage sold. In Wellington 50% sold achieving RV - however that equates to only 1 house out of the 8 on offer.

It would be much clearer if it was just the actual number of houses sold achieving RV. (i.e 65 ? )

by Nellbell | 18th Mar 24, 1:40pm 1710722449

I take the time on the auction page to hop into the QV link, on there is what I think is a pretty up to date estimate, I use that to judge how pricing is doing.

by General Comment | 18th Mar 24, 3:30pm 1710729043

I'm just astounded anything in Wellington sold over RV, although the house does appear to be quite out of the ordinary.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 6:14pm 1710738878

Hi General Comment,

House prices are now rising again in Wellington, I'm told, so best you get used to being astonished.

TTP

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:33pm 1710732820

Pretty active on the forum again Tim, what kept you away? Were you tied up with another price fixing court case?

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 4:37pm 1710733062

Hi agnostium,

Sorry - but I fell asleep reading your posts.

TTP 🥱

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 5:03pm 1710734599

But you didn't? Did you?

You wrote up a response. I guess a convicted fraudster doesn't even know when he's lying.

Have a great evening Tim, I know times are tough for the spruikers but please, please remember the million dollar fines for price fixing are not worth it, you'll sleep better if you stay law abiding.

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 8:26pm 1710746770

Is that how he ended up homeless?

by malamah | 18th Mar 24, 9:54pm 1710752067

Hi, me again.

I live in Wellington and can verify that it certainly is not a rising market. Open homes deserted as I mentioned a week or two back, confirmed this last weekend. It’s nice walking through when you’re the only one there and the agent has time to talk about everything. Auctions mostly getting passed in and price expectations lowering. Was looking at one with an investor friend, would need to be about 65% down on RV for the rental appraisal to make sense, about 25% lower than vendor expectations. Yes those numbers are correct.

Listings have risen 60% in the last two months in the region. Most property is not moving at all giving a false market of few higher end sales, moving the median up.

Again, for the fourth time in this thread, you need to get out more. But you already knew that.

by interesting1234 | 19th Mar 24, 8:18am 1710789511

Listings have risen 60% in the last two months in the region. Most property is not moving at all giving a false market of few higher end sales, moving the median up.

This runs along the general think tank in the HPI article on here the other day. Top of the market still selling with well presented, good location, reasonable sectioned houses which seems to be the only thing keeping the numbers looking steady. Couple this with banks on the extend and pretend, rents going up and cost of living all round (already been notified of impending power price increases on the way for winter as predicted last year) and the picture is of an economy that is smiling and waiving as the walls fall down around it.

by General Comment | 19th Mar 24, 10:18am 1710796722

I've owned a property in Wellington for more than 20 years, and it's conservatively 20% below its RV, so it'll be a long time before I'm anything more than slightly baffled as to why it was ever considered to be worth that much in the first place. Somewhere around its 2018 RV seems more reasonable.

by Tui12 | 18th Mar 24, 11:29am 1710714582

Anyone tried to buy a house recently?

We bought our second house (upgrade) and it took 6 months of being outbid 4 times or multi offered out of properties before this one. But it was worth it as this is our dream home and we will never have to move again.

Quality stand alone houses with large land, in top school zones or near the beach etc. are still a dog fight to purchase.

First homes 1 Mil and below or town houses that aren’t well designed with min land or privacy yeah they are probably hard to move.

by Nifty1 | 18th Mar 24, 12:36pm 1710718574

Anyone tried to buy a house recently?

Mostly bystanders here... waiting for a crash that never arrives...

by earnedincome | 18th Mar 24, 2:19pm 1710724775

It arrived some time ago in Wellington (i.e. >20% down)

by M0ralHazard | 18th Mar 24, 2:44pm 1710726289

Yeah but then you would have to live in Wellington...

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 4:24pm 1710732293

"waiting for a crash that never arrives"

Just out of interest, in what area of NZ do you own real estate?

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:39pm 1710733167

We've already met the definition of a housing crash and we haven't seen the bottom yet.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 8:16pm 1710746162

Most people form their perspectives based on their own lived experience. If a person hasn't experienced house price declines personally, in their local area, or know anyone who has experienced a house price fall, then under that lived experience, that person may believe that there is no house price crash. Other geographical areas outside of their immediate interest may be of no interest to them since they're unaffected.

Alternatively that person is a property promoter with a vested financial self interest.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in NZ.

"We've already met the definition of a housing crash"

Many had bought at the peak but the market had dropped 30%, he said.

“I have been dealing with mostly developers who entered the market at the peak and those are the groups that urgently need help.”

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/cruel-reality-developers-offering-huge-d…

Remember that the 30% price fall is before:

1) inflation - remember the frequently repeated property promoter adage (and commonly held belief) that "house prices keep up with inflation"?

2) leverage

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 8:25pm 1710746718

Some developers were selling in bulk to avoid being forced to a mortgagee sale, even though they were facing millions of dollars of loss.

Its forced, either sell it or it will be mortgagee.. just better to sell without that stigma

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 8:52pm 1710748323

"Its forced, either sell it or it will be mortgagee.. just better to sell without that stigma"

Also likely to have a lot more costs involved in a mortgagee sale - perhaps additional fees by lenders.

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 12:49pm 1710719371

That has been my anecdotal experience as well in the last 12 months.

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 12:46pm 1710719218

You have to be a tad desperate to auction your house in this current climate. I hazard a guess that 90% of prospective buyers will only make conditional offers atm. So you are effectively ruling out 90% of the market.

I think this might explain the discrepancy between only 10% of auctioned homes going above CV while 40-50% go above CV in the general market (I am talking about Auckland specifically). The sellers are more motivated in the auction room.

by donny11 | 18th Mar 24, 1:15pm 1710720952

A house I was interested in just sold substantially what I would have paid for it conditionally. In effect C.V is 2.4 million. I would have paid 1.8 million. It sold for 1.55 million on auction day. I was very reasonable with expectations around what I would get for mine. I feel the agents are sort of limiting the pool of buyers by pushing auctions. They are missing out on other buyers with better offers.

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 1:52pm 1710723176

Exactly! Auctions are for the benefit of the agent, not the seller.

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 2:33pm 1710725589

Buyers are liars...... if its real it would have been a conditional offer on paper... if vendor needs action , auctions are fall of hammer.. some are desperate to move before market falls another 10%

by John Mendel | 18th Mar 24, 12:53pm 1710719590

What is now sold under CV are townhouses and apartments,

Who would want to live in a townhouse that has 3 floors or in a building that will make you pay hundreds of thousands to repair?!

houses are still in high demand and prices will continue to rise!

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 12:51pm 1710719495

I was wondering about this but I don't think townhouses/apartments are usually sold via auction disproportionately are they. I only ever see standalone houses going to auction. That's just an anecdotal observation.

by John Mendel | 18th Mar 24, 1:00pm 1710720052

A few examples:

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42531767/residential/sale/12-17-georgia-te…

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42529762/residential/sale/c1-60-masons-roa…;

https://www.realestate.co.nz/42529214/residential/sale/8-30-john-jennin…

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 6:25pm 1710739546

That's a very sound point, John Mendel.

If you took all the apartments, flats and townhouses out of suburbs like Ponsonby, Herne Bay and St Marys Bay, then average and median dwelling prices would be far higher.

Well-located, fee simple, freehold houses, north-facing and with off-street parking are hard to beat - if you can afford to purchase one. Buy in an Auckland Central suburb and, long term, you'll share in the cream. For some people (such as younger singles) buying in a syndicate may make sense.

Friends tell me the same logic applies to Wellington - which isn't a surprise.

TTP

by Tui12 | 18th Mar 24, 2:34pm 1710725695

Agree but as an OO we actually sought out a cross lease this time. It’s more protective.

Our last house we had freehold with a shared driveway and 2 neighbours. With freehold there is nothing to stop your neighbours squeezing in as many 3 level terrace homes 1m off your boundary as they can and suddenly you have 12 dwellings to share your driveway with.

if you’re staying long term and are after quality private living I’d argue cross lease is a better option.

by 1689 Baptist | 18th Mar 24, 4:15pm 1710731745

If it is a shared driveway or jointly owned access lane your neighbour would need to get your written consent before his subdivision is approved by council.

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 4:35pm 1710732901

If fee simple title it would depend what the easement terms are. But usually the easement rights pass to the new lots automatically

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:42pm 1710733347

TTP getting desperate, actively telling people to buy in the most overpriced part of NZ. I smell bankruptcy fears...

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 12:56pm 1710719775

And the unsold stock pile gets bigger and bigger.......

This will not help

Persistent inflation, bubbling wage pressures, weak productivity growth, and stimulus from tax cuts means borrowers may have to wait another year for relief.

by Chairman Moa | 18th Mar 24, 1:04pm 1710720250

Last time I bought my own house. The market was in similar situation, I made a fair offer and wasn't anywhere in low ball region, the seller told me to eff-off..!

Ten weeks later he sent me a email to say" If you are still interested, the house is your last $XXXK offer!

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:44pm 1710733454

I assume you apologised and said unfortunately now you only valued the property at last offer minus 4%

by Chairman Moa | 18th Mar 24, 5:13pm 1710735233

Yeah I could've been an axxhole and offer him even less..But what fair is fair..

by Yvil | 18th Mar 24, 5:43pm 1710737033

Good on you CM. Would you say that house is today worth less, about even or more than when you bought it?

by Chairman Moa | 18th Mar 24, 5:52pm 1710737536

That was a while now and we were a stone throw from Auckland domain, so naturally the value has been up subtaintally.

by Yvil | 18th Mar 24, 7:50pm 1710744611

Good on you.

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 8:10pm 1710745820

I guess you don't mind donating your money to random strangers. Good on you. Hopefully you'll also only sell for the amount you paid for it including interest, because fairness and you wouldn't want to be an axxhole ...

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 18th Mar 24, 2:02pm 1710723756

Related to housing, I have a few anecdotes to report;

I was with friends the other weekend, a few of whom are architects. Firms (Christchurch based) are no longer hiring and are concerned with lack of upcoming work.

I spoke to a builder who works for a local company, currently completing a renovation at a Rolleston school. Once again, concerned with the lack of upcoming work as the govt reversed all further planned upgrades at schools.

Still based only on observation (and the flaws that can come with that), I have noticed sections are remaining on sale for a lot longer than a few years ago. Many are not selling at all yet developers are still releasing many more around Christchurch as subdivisions are slowly completed. Who’s going to buy them? Far less buildings are being constructed too.

This weird housing market of rising rents, increased listings and dropping prices is not limited to the Anglo-sphere. Similar events are being reported in France too: https://youtu.be/PHRj6x70iMc?si=AOlWXfniT_JFRviH

by Nellbell | 18th Mar 24, 2:27pm 1710725261

We are all paying the price of the excesses of the pandemic boom. The building industry and the wider real estate industry ( bankers, mortgage brokers, media, sales sites) all boomed and made super-profits. Now it is too expensive to build, especially as existing properties reduce further in price. Things will need to correct (price to build) before families will start building again.

by K.W. | 18th Mar 24, 3:00pm 1710727252

When 25 year old inexperienced property developers are buying luxury yachts and flying to Auckland on private jets, while instagramming their Bali holidays, you know the market is in excess.

by mfd | 18th Mar 24, 2:31pm 1710725511

Small developments are still cropping up around me - in my block of 100 or so houses near Chch Centre there have been a steady 2-3 houses somewhere in the process of being turned into 4-5 townhouses. First couple of blocks are done and sold, another old(ish) house got torn down a few weeks ago. Block of 100 houses adding 5-10 new properties to the market each year at present.

by CN - new | 18th Mar 24, 4:11pm 1710731477

"Small developments are still cropping up around me"

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/cruel-reality-developers-offering-huge-d…

Could these developers not have made sufficient pre sales?

Or is this the remaining inventory that was unsold?

Or perhaps previous off the plan buyers have chosen not to settle at settlement date?

Imagine a buyer who bought these developments at the higher initial undiscounted price offered by the developer.

by Sluggy | 18th Mar 24, 4:04pm 1710731053

My son is a builder in Auckland, he received an email on the weekend stating dont come monday. Like most builders, he is treated as a contractor not an employee (quite how the industry gets away with this is mind boggling). No phone call, no nothing. He was one of 6 guys to get the chop. The guy he was working for had 2 contracts (residential) cancel. Fortunately he is young with no dependants, we are about to lose a lot of tradespeople as they scramble for work, leave the country or change tack all together.

by Flying high | 18th Mar 24, 4:38pm 1710733110

"Labour only carpenter" is a self employed category subject to withholding tax.

The labour only guys are paid on performance and have deductible expenses. It suits them

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:49pm 1710733764

Sorry to hear that Sluggy. I was hoping the incoming government would suck up the extra contruction labour that is about to appear by ramping up construction of state housing. Keep the skills in country and people off the dole and start to address the housing affordability crisis. Instead they are hell bent on giving multi billion dollar tax breaks to landlords and the tobacco industry (are we at $3billion yet, I lose track as their sums are so bad they have to keep changing them)

by Ahuhyeah | 18th Mar 24, 8:49pm 1710748147

Mirrored here. Spoke to an architect today. Getting noticeably quieter.

by Mystery | 18th Mar 24, 6:58pm 1710741486

gosh, Queenstown:( 100% sold and 100% at or above the astronomically high 2021CV:(

The coming winter/ski season probably isn't going to drop the demand for homes in that region and then the dropping interest rates will follow adding even more fire to those prices :(

*Edit* - just noticed that 100% figure was 1 out of 1 properties, lol, so that's as low as you can get in your statistics pool:)

by interesting1234 | 19th Mar 24, 8:23am 1710789794

All that money for the rich to leave their holiday homes empty most of the year or pay them down via airBnB

by K.W. | 18th Mar 24, 3:03pm 1710727411

Well, it was the Labour Govt that decided to remove them from the rental pool by preventing them being leased to short term seasonal workers on fixed tenancies.

Speaking of which, when is the ability to terminate a fixed term tenancy being restored?

by agnostium | 18th Mar 24, 4:51pm 1710733882

Yes, because the super rich of Arrowtown and Queenstown are really happy to let their properties to seasonal workers 🤡🤡🤡

by K.W. | 19th Mar 24, 4:13pm 1710818032

The vast bulk of housing in Queenstown is not $50M mansions for super rich people, but ordinary homes and apartments purchased for use by owners in the summer or ski seasons. They're not flash, and used to be let out to seasonal workers like ski instructors when owners were allowed to do it in order to help pay the mortgages on them. Now owners can only let them out through AirBnB. Every AirBnB property there could have been short term worker's accommodation (charged at higher weekly rates than long term rentals, but still cheaper than paying nightly rates and not subject to vacancies), but no longer.

by Flying high | 19th Mar 24, 9:49pm 1710838151

Labour was warned about this but went ahead with abandon. Or, with Gay abandon if you prefer.

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 2:48pm 1710726490

AFR: Bond yields tell us the risk of higher-for-long rates is building again, but sharemarkets don’t seem to care. This week could change all that.

Sure a falling stock market will help house prices /sarc

by HouseMouse | 18th Mar 24, 3:29pm 1710728986

Will the timid bear become a raging one? Both NZX50 and ASX pretty much where they started 2024, NZX50 pretty much where it was beginning of 2023.

As HFL extends I think the risks grow.

by tothepoint | 18th Mar 24, 3:32pm 1710729175

Note that in the case of people finding the sharemarket too risky, it's quite possible they'll favour the housing market.

TTP

by mfd | 18th Mar 24, 3:41pm 1710729676

Imagine thinking shares are too risky then borrowing 60-80% of the value of an Auckland property just to get into a loss-making position.

But you know what they say - to make an exceptional return, always head into the crowded, overvalued trade...

by IT GUY | 18th Mar 24, 5:12pm 1710735137

You need to cure the green shoots for longer, your acting too peaky