Auction activity jumped back up last week but the sales rate appears to be on the slide.
There were 472 residential properties offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz last week (6-12 April), up from 303 in the week immediately after Easter, but down from more than 500 a week in the weeks leading up to Easter.
It appears auction activity is easing its way into the lower volumes of autumn.
Sales also appear to be a bit softer, with 132 of the properties auctioned selling under the hammer last week, giving an overall sales rate of 28%.
The sales rate has been at 28% to 30% for the last three weeks, after easing back from around a third over the six weeks prior to that.
Prices look a bit weaker too, with 32% of the properties that sold under the hammer last week achieving prices equal to or greater than their rating valuations, after averaging about 40% over the previous few weeks.
All in all, the the latest auction results suggest the market is weakening slightly as it comes off its summer highs and heads into the traditionally slower autumn months.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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48 Comments
"sales rate appears to be on the slide"
Yes, much like the trusted HPI. It's highly unlikely the "floor" was August to October" as inventory continues to pile on. It will be interesting to see what effect the Brightline tweak has on the already bloated inventory levels. Lets see how many white knuckled "investors" jump.
Don’t worry I’m sure things will pick up now that the government is laying off thousands of people while also slashing spending on goods & services.
Anti- counter cyclical spending.
They are only an “investor” on the way up.
On the way down they are just hardworking mum and dad taxpayers just trying to get ahead and putting rooves over peoples heads!
The RBNZ are maintaining the course of the "soft landing™" what they failed to note, was the timeframe of a "soft landing™" given that a hard crash happens in a short period of 6 to 18 months, then takes 5 years to recover, I suspect that they don't know if the soft landing will be over a 5 year timeframe or a 10 year+ timeframe(see Ireland).
Obviously all the bag holders are still in denial and can't admit the very real possibility of a 10 year stagnation.
Just another nail in the coffin
I remember during the big nuts run up in 2020/2021 we had a month where the average price achieved jumped up around 4.8%, we are about to see a few solid 2s 3s to the down side.
I think it will shake out about 5k (brightline) over the next 12 months, not massive BUT still adding to the overhang of listings.
Bong said Debedee
Oh Dear said Dougal
Love the Magic Roundabout…although I thought it was Zebedee?
Already low turnover, and heading even lower into the winter low turnover window. Agent land will be on food stamps at this rate.
Form an orderly queue behind the police officer
"Your Jetstar flight to SYD airport has been delayed."
Lucky so many New Zealanders have second passports these days. Mail the keys to the bank, leave the car in the long term parking lot at the airport, jump on a plane and suddenly all your financial worries are gone.
"Lucky so many New Zealanders have second passports these days. Mail the keys to the bank, leave the car in the long term parking lot at the airport, jump on a plane and suddenly all your financial worries are gone."
Just checking that you know that under the terms and conditions of mortgage contracts and current laws in NZ, that is not a valid LEGAL solution?
Try telling that to the many student loan defaulters who left and will never come back but for the odd holiday.
Had to laugh at the article on one woof with the “won’t someone please think of the agents”. Talking about not being cruel and changing agents, and all the sacrifices agents make to bring us a bloated housing Ponzi.
#jesuisrealestateagent
More data emphasizing a deteriorating market
Few TTP's style inspiration comments:
"Declining housing market is nothing more than the shadow of great opportunity"
"Declining housing market can become opportunities when the right people come with offers"
"Declining housing market is like sunrises. If you wait too long, you miss them or might get burned"
Speaking of inspirational gems...
by tothepoint | 3rd Sep 21, 8:39pm
"NZ house prices are increasing - on a sustainable long-term trajectory"
Yes, I personally never called the arrival of COVID and the money pumps ahead of time but now the highly anticipated hangover is here, like other posters, I have been calling 2024 the year of opportunity for FHB's. Their deposits will go far further than they did in 2020/21. If they price it right, the financially stretched will be relieved there is somebody to sell too.
Yes its funny how shorts are hated, but they provide the liquidity at the bottom of the market
Their deposits will go further but their weekly wages won’t. I’m not sure how young families can service 1+million dollar mortgages @ 7%
Nor even 700k ones
So, China just published its Q1 economic statistic data. the Q1 annual CPI is 0%, and residential investment is -9.5%.
China will need to print lots of money to go forward!
Remember the heady days when Chinese viewed our real estate as dirt cheap and shopped accordingly? Locals got quite antsy.
As things progressively crumble in China, is there a case for them to try liquidating the now highly illiquid. A perfect storm in the making perhaps. Lets hope not as it would be a dire scenario.
No as they want to keep their money outside the red curtain. Most is owned in trusts and no mortgage so the trust deed is never held by a bank. Transfer can be achieved by slight of hand.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/chinese-forced-to-sell-overseas-properti…
Middle-class Chinese are increasingly selling their properties in Australia and other countries, with some forced to offload their investments at below-market rates, as high interest rates and a sputtering Chinese economy bite, overseas data shows.
China’s biggest property portal, Juwai IQI, says the number of people selling overseas properties has doubled in the past 12 months.
Many had children studying at universities in Australia which fuelled the buying boom of apartments during visits to see their offspring. Others were cashed-up investors looking to make a profit in the future.
But data and anecdotal evidence suggest that trend is reversing, not only because they can no longer afford the mortgage repayments but also because of China’s strict capital controls on taking money out of the country to make up the difference.
Even if some can get the cash out, the slowing economy and a property crisis inside China mean many of the country’s middle class no longer have spare money to invest.
Yeah I don’t really have any confidence in China or its continued influence on the NZ housing market.
China had its chance at becoming a challenger to the US. IMHO, that is now just a pipe dream and their economy is cooked.
Here are the FACTS ......
In Auckland out of 327 properties, only 22 properties sold at or above CV .....or 6.7%
Truly Marvellous !!!
but the CV was done 2021, right on the peak.
Correct, the number now selling above RV has taken a huge jump now the latest RV's came out a week ago down here. My place dropped $50K on paper.
Its funny how wingman lives next to all 22
like many I got 16% over cv at the peak
fortunes have been lost already and this is not the bottom
With Harvey in his rear whispering "they'll be up 10% by years end"
"Prices look a bit weaker too ..."
Sure do. And a few quite sad ones from today's auctions for next week's numbers.
It's not looking good brav, it's not looking good.
Its quiet out there..... too quiet
One third of the four Waikato houses sold went for above CV.
Am I the only one who is troubled by this?
Yes.
Only 3 had RVs, 1 didn't, so nothing to compare to.
This is going to be an ugly winter and the next two years.
This government is really taking us back to the 1970 and the muldoon days.
Really they caused all this in 6 months, pull the other one.....
No they caused it from 2008 with your banker mate Mr John Wee 3% of the Market.
Let's run a Ponzi with Laundered money that's when the down fall of this country started.
Now we have a major mess to clean up with know laundered or printed money.
Lucky we have the clever National party to sort this out.
Without such strong immigration, the housing market would have already collapsed. If these strong immigration levels continue, it is going to be an orderly retreat, with some further moderate decreases in nominal terms.
disagree as investers need 25-30% falls for numbers to work here
Winter is coming
Surge of listings where I live, with almost no open home interest as far as I can see. Also a surge of garage sales in the community. Many people are really starting to hurt.
It’s going to be a long winter….
I feel really sorry for the people who bought the spruiker bullshit.
one of the garage sales had an old worn copy of ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’. Sadly ironic
Well, at least he gave it a go I guess....
Damn, that’s bleak HM.
One of the garage sales had an old worn copy of ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad
As important as this reset is, it won’t be fun for many…
So with nominal declines plus inflation adjusted losses, have Auckland now down nearly 45% since 2021.
As we are set now, for another 10 to 20% nominal losses, to the end of 2025.
We are on track to well and truly eclipse the massive housing market losses seen in little old Ireland, but at a faster rate here in NZ.
GOLD medal to NZ!
These losss for the over leveraged DDDebt junkies, will be eyewatering and a mountain climb to recover from, if your over 40.
The REA debt drug pushers are total TTP scrotes and should be gone after by our "asleep at the wheel" regulators!!!
Best to liquidate, before your are forced to. NZ Banks are very worried.
NZ banks should be very worried they created this mess and made the most money out of it.
A major hair cut to come for them couldn't happen to a nicer bunch and their realestate mates.
Its been the only game in town sense the GFC runing a housings Ponzi is not business this will be very ugly NZ.
They will be knocking on the taxpayer's door for handouts, don't worry. Revolving doors with politics will pay dividends, and we don't have a government that looks likely to stand up for the taxpayer.
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