The housing market appears likely to remain firmly in buyers' favour this winter, with more people wanting to sell properties than there are people who are willing and able to buy them.
The huge overhang of unsold properties on the market that has built up over the last nine months is at least as big an influence on the housing market at the moment as the prevailing high interest rates.
The total number of residential properties available for sale on property website Realestate.co.nz at the end of each month has grown steadily from 22,750 in August last year, to 33,815 in April this year.
But from all of those properties that were for sale at the end of April, the Real Estate Institute of NZ recorded just 6203 sales in May.
That was one sale for every 5.5 properties on the market.
On top of that, another 9225 new residential listings were received by Realestate.co.nz in May, which meant sales were running at just two thirds of the rate at which properties were coming on to the market.
All of which points to a glut of properties for sale, which, if the normal rules of supply and demand apply, should see prices starting to fall, and the latest figures suggest that they are.
The REINZ's House Price Index, widely regarded as the best measure of residential price movements available, declined by 2.9% over the three months to May, with falls above 5% over the some period in some parts of the country.
This is good news for buyers and for first home buyers in particular, although the latest modest falls in prices are still miles away from restoring anything even vaguely resembling affordability for first home buyers on average incomes.
First home buyers will also likely be cheering recent comments by Housing Minister Chris Bishop, who said he regarded house prices as being too high.
That was an unusual, and perhaps brave, comment for a politician to make, and suggests at least there might not be any political pressure for moves that would prop up property prices in the near future at least.
This should leave market forces to do their thing.
And for the moment, those forces appear to be very much on the side of the buyers.
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