Average asking price on Trade Me Property down $50,000 since start of the year

Property / news

Asking prices on Trade Me Property falling while stock levels hit a 10-year high

13th Aug 24, 10:15am by Greg Ninness

The latest figures from Trade Me Property paint a pretty grim picture of the current housing market, with average asking prices tumbling and the number of listings on the site climbing to a 10-year high.

The average asking price on the website is now $50,000 lower than at the beginning of 2024, pushing it down to its lowest level in three years.

At the same time, listings on the website have been rising, hitting a 10-year high of 42,440 back in May.

In the 12 months to July, listings with asking prices under $1 million were up 27% compared to the previous 12 months, and properties priced in the popular $600,000 to $799,000 range were up 29%.

Trade Me says properties are also staying listed on the website for longer, with the median days to sell on the site rising to 75 in July from 73 in June.

"All of this adds up to more choice for buyers and more competition for sellers, putting downward pressure on prices," Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd said.

"Buyers are taking more time to make decisions and have more negotiating power on price," he said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed

•You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

54 Comments

by Timmyboy | 13th Aug 24, 10:27am 1723501663

Grim? Why?

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 10:43am 1723502625

Hat trick of RE data against Spruikers today

I have to hand it to those old spookers, they have a never die attitude.

by starrider | 13th Aug 24, 11:46am 1723506419

Would love to see the "Crash Graph" updated to show the Ireland crash vs the NZ crash (adjusted for inflation).

by NZGecko | 13th Aug 24, 11:48am 1723506529

Yes any update pls??

Chart shows that NZ residential property is currently declining faster than the recent US, Irish, Spanish and Japanese crashes did. : r/PersonalFinanceNZ (reddit.com)

We can beat Ireland !

by Nzdan | 13th Aug 24, 12:02pm 1723507346

According to REINZ HPI report December 2021, the National HPI was 4235. June 2024 it's 3573. So that's about 16% down in 30 months.

Puts our HPI slightly above the blue line for US 2007 at the 30 month mark on that Reddit chart.

Auckland on the other hand, 4176 down to 3330 is 20% down. That's aligned with US 2007.

by Three Veg | 13th Aug 24, 12:22pm 1723508524

I've been running updates, but following auckland city HPI (REINZ) - not inflation adjusted

https://imgur.com/a/dUCgQaG

by rastus1 | 13th Aug 24, 1:50pm 1723513828

Good work thanks

by NZGecko | 13th Aug 24, 2:10pm 1723515012

Adjusted for the rampant inflation/monetary losses, since the late 2021 peak, NZs major city losses would be at or bigger than Ireland.

by agnostium | 13th Aug 24, 5:37pm 1723527466

Yep, comparing a low to zero inflation period to a high inflation period is pretty misleading.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Aug 24, 12:00pm 1723507216

Once it's all in the rear vision and recovery ensues, the word "crash" will slide of many a Spruikers tongue too.

by Squishy | 13th Aug 24, 10:28am 1723501684

The question is if people want to sell or if they want the situation on their hands watching the prices decline.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Aug 24, 10:28am 1723501723

One wonders whether it is high interest rates (and recessionary times) alone that is driving the fall and the number of listings.

One wonders whether the effects of Council zoning policy changes since 2016 aren't also having an effect. In effect I'm wondering why so many are selling when high interest rates and recessions are transitory beasts and 'normal service' should (according to many) resume shortly.

Time will tell.

But IMO the writing is on the wall, writ large.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Aug 24, 10:38am 1723502298

Highly likely it's more about job insecurity and the self reinforcement the good ol' days of double digit pa house price growth won't return soon enough for the heavily indebted. Then there's the skyrocketing rates and insurance in tow. In this environment, from an investment perspective, rental yields should be more like 8-10% to reflect the risk and cover holding costs not the current average of 5%.

Despite falls to date, house prices are still distorted.

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 10:52am 1723503136

no animal spirits = no cpaital gains

no capital gains = no ponzi

Interest rates alone do not cut it, you are either holding a bag increasing in value or you hold a bag falling like a stone

add leverage to flavour, use thick slices of bread to assemble sandwich in current market

by Zachary Smith | 13th Aug 24, 10:50am 1723503057

the writing is on the wall, writ large.

So, what does the writing say?

by Yvil | 13th Aug 24, 10:53am 1723503189

"I'm wondering why so many are selling when high interest rates and recessions are transitory beasts"

But there aren't "so many selling", sales volumes are down !

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 11:01am 1723503698

Correct - so many Sellers are Dreamin

But the buyers are one step ahead of them and keep lowering there offers as sellers lower their ask

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Aug 24, 11:31am 1723505515

But there aren't "so many selling", sales volumes are down!

Yvil, the question is "why have so many made or seriously considering the decision to list given that recessions are historically transitory"

Aside from employment concerns, changes to Brightline could also be playing a part.

edit

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 11:07am 1723504071

Its because the Ponzi is over, but those Spruikers will not accept that as the reason, they are still hoping that the market will rise like a zombie in a 1970s horror movie.

Or maybe like a famous Parrot, the Ponzi is just resting.......

by Grattaway | 13th Aug 24, 12:05pm 1723507500

A continued fall in house prices (and associated rents) will be the biggest economic win in NZ for 40 years and will be a good outcome for the majority of New Zealanders -and I appreciate that there could be small number of recent buyers who might lose big time

It will help ease social pressures and might even change baked in thinking about investment options as well as putting lots of pressure on the underlying forces that drive new house prices up - land, rates and monopoly suppliers by way of example

by J.C. | 13th Aug 24, 12:28pm 1723508904

Or it could be the biggest economic disaster. My reckon is that your reckon is not based on any robust modelling or hypothesis. Don't take that is an insult.

Of course my reckon is also not based on modelling. It's based on a hypothesis that if the Ponzi crumbles, it will affect the whole economy, particularly the consumptive parts of the economy that drive SMEs and retail - a symbiotic relationship with the Ponzi. So as the 'real economy' gets worse, the feedback loop into house and land prices potentially reinforces the doom.

Too many Aotearoans are attached to the Goldilocks Principle without really thinking things through.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 13th Aug 24, 8:35pm 1723538141

Best scenario is actually a decent drop then several years of stagnation of house prices (as opposed to a crash). With money and time driven into productive enterprises.

by sgtshortcut | 13th Aug 24, 11:11am 1723504310

Guess how long would you call transitory…180 day, three years? I’m not sure this is transitory but at some point we will all agree that it would still be cyclical? Shit, if you’re under the pump financially then sell and try to remove the stress I guess…house price increases are what, 24 months away at least?

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 11:25am 1723505100

All markets are cyclical, but if you lived through the great depression it would have felt very end of worlds.....

Houses unlike shares have some intrinsic value as shelter, we are all just debating what multiplier of income that should be.

by sgtshortcut | 13th Aug 24, 6:20pm 1723530038

Fair call, hey I am sure that for some families living through this right now it will feel very end of worlds...but with regards to the repeated comments (not from yourself IT) about this being the end of all ends, I just don't believe it, it will be cyclical...but I am sure that is of no relief to those doing it tough right now.

As for what the multiplier of income should be...shouldn't it be 3-4X, what it will be...jeez, probably not that eh

by malamah | 13th Aug 24, 11:15am 1723504540

I read this as "why are so many vendors selling", rather than "why so many houses selling". Listings are way up, volumes are way down. What could happen.

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 11:22am 1723504923

perhaps they are all just testing the market

by wingman | 13th Aug 24, 11:27am 1723505247

Meanwhile in some places, like Auckland, (+2.7%) prices are ticking up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350342825/regions-where-house-prices-a…

Who's getting ready for the next boom?

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 11:26am 1723505218

That was REINZ data for June wingnut

by wingman | 13th Aug 24, 11:28am 1723505288

So it's one month and 13 days old Einstein?

by rastus1 | 13th Aug 24, 11:48am 1723506522

You need to 'think' 12-18 months out, not months back.

by Nzdan | 13th Aug 24, 11:49am 1723506586

Celebrating a month on month 2.7% increase in median prices (margin of error stuff in a noisy market) while ignoring the wider trend. Hell, that 2.7% increase could be solely down to homes at the bottom of the market not moving because the FHB Home Start Grant was removed in May. So the median moved up slightly.

by Toye | 13th Aug 24, 11:38am 1723505919

"Meanwhile, in my shit sandwich, I found an olive"

by Middleaged | 13th Aug 24, 12:32pm 1723509151

Meanwhile, on a page not far from here...

"Average dwelling values in Auckland down an average of almost $9000 a month for the last six months, QV says"

Residential property values 'slowly shrinking across all price brackets in almost every part of Aotearoa' | interest.co.nz

by K.W. | 13th Aug 24, 11:45am 1723506306

Headline on The Australian today, which you won't see in NZ any time soon ...

Influx of property investors stabilises rental market

The country’s rental market is benefiting from more property investors looking to take advantage of price growth, but inbound migration levels will have a role to play in vacancy rates.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/proptrack-national-r…

by malamah | 13th Aug 24, 12:05pm 1723507533

inbound migration levels will have a role to play in vacancy rates

Rentals in NZ no longer can rely on this luxury. Following trends, come the end of October it's looking likely that our net migration will be sitting at <20,000 for the year. Could be as low as 0.

by wingman | 13th Aug 24, 12:12pm 1723507923

Loads of bearish comments.

The signal for contrarians to 'back the truck up'.

by NZGecko | 13th Aug 24, 12:29pm 1723508965

Fill your already soggy boots man!

Useful Connon fodder is really needed to step into the breach and take the incoming and unrelenting sellers flak.......

by TronMVP | 13th Aug 24, 4:41pm 1723524117

The ponzi spruikers championed by the Hosk, the Comb, and Chris "7 houses" Luxon will be crying in their beer or champagne.

by EpsomArtsandCrafts | 13th Aug 24, 1:38pm 1723513121

Ouch, Auckland prices going backwards at -$300 per day!

by Houses Overpriced | 13th Aug 24, 2:40pm 1723516805

More like $500/day.. rates, interest, insurance..

by starrider | 13th Aug 24, 3:01pm 1723518068

Would love to see the govt put a few billion into incentivizing one and two bedroom new builds.

Like the old granny flats from the 70's and 80's. All bog standard basic builds, the govt could easily create 10 designs/layouts that meet the nz building code and they could make them immune to local govt nimby meddling. Fully insulated, double glazed. 50yr+ lifespan cladding and roofing, low maintenance.

NZ needs way more smaller homes that are 60m2 to 90m2. Think single people, single retiree, retirees, young couples. Couples without kids.

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 24, 3:00pm 1723518032

hence the granny flat announcement

by starrider | 13th Aug 24, 3:09pm 1723518542

Yes - but I think the govt would be better off pumping $2 billion a year into new builds, which is less than is paid toward the accommodation supplement. I'm not sure why the Aroha/BeKind coalition didn't just do that. $100k per build for 20,000 builds. Something like this would have an actual lasting impact on NZ rather than the accommodation supplement which essentially just increases market rents, thereby increasing house values for investment.

Which is pretty much how much we need to be building each year for all the new migrants.

by Nzdan | 13th Aug 24, 4:35pm 1723523717

Because if you recall they rolled out Kiwibuild and had the funding to go behind it, but alas the building sector was already tapped out so it wasn't a net increase in dwellings just Kiwibuild stickers slapped on properties already planned to be built.

by sgtshortcut | 13th Aug 24, 6:29pm 1723530548

Definitely, warm and dry basic but healthy homes that are built well, proper eaves and low maintenance hard wearing material suitable to our NZ climate. Add some 120m2 three bedroom options for young families, rent to own opportunities to help people get a headstart. Bloody good to see someone discussing solutions mate, not just the routine sh*t flinging from the anti vs pro or pro vs anti property gangs!!

by Let me be Frank | 13th Aug 24, 7:23pm 1723533809

You mean like NZS 3604?

by sgtshortcut | 13th Aug 24, 9:43pm 1723542235

Essentially yes, but NZS 3604 has been around while we’ve let people build houses with monolithic cladding and no eaves.

Just well built basic homes, maximise the use of space, warm and dry, a goal of more affordable housing.

by wortho | 13th Aug 24, 8:59pm 1723539579

Yes same, good call. We have so many single 65plus in rural Northland who need this. We’ve got a couple useless (but flat n accessible) acres we tried to put 1 bedrooms on exactly for this, punitive council says no (read more $$ to apply than worth).

by agnostium | 13th Aug 24, 5:48pm 1723528130

Recent Curia poll asked NZers how they would vote in US elections if they could.

Across all demographics NZers would vote for Harris over Trump. The only outliers who would vote Trump over Harris are:

ACT voters
NZFIRST voters
Rural voters

Says it all, and why NZ citizens are leaving in droves. The coalition is trying it's hardest to appeal to a right-wing nut community and doesn't represent the views and desires of most NZers. Luxons sacrificed the National Party in his desperation to be PM at all costs and made a deal with the devil, worse National leader in living memory.

https://www.curia.co.nz/2024/08/us-2024-presidential-election-poll/

by wortho | 13th Aug 24, 9:05pm 1723539938

Gees you draw a lot of connections there man, why stop at right wing nut jobs? Why not throw in racist, anti-widget et.al. for good measure. Fixed it for ya!

by wingman | 14th Aug 24, 10:27am 1723588075

Hot off the press.

BTW, when 3 of NZ's biggest companies are going to spend billions in Riverhead, you don't need to be a property research professor to figure out where the capital gains are going to be.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/08/14/this-year-might-be-a-good-time-to-bu…

by starrider | 14th Aug 24, 12:23pm 1723595002

THAR SHE BLOWS!!!

All hands on deck! Start leveraging those paper capital gains again, before they shrink too much.

by starrider | 14th Aug 24, 12:54pm 1723596843

You know its getting dire when real estate agents start to close offices.

‘Increasing trend’ of crime sees Barfoot & Thompson branch close after 65 years | Stuff