Pushed and pulled, so many New Zealanders are heading to Australia it has Aussie tongues wagging. Ross Stitt looks at what they are likely to find and what faces them in the future

New Zealand features regularly in news stories in Australia. More often than not the topic is sport, but in recent weeks one topic has been attracting particular attention – the increase in New Zealanders migrating to Australia.

See for example ‘Why do so many kiwis come to Australia’, ‘As record numbers leave NZ, why are most people choosing Australia?’, and ‘Why New Zealanders are leaving in record numbers and moving to Australia’.     

Obviously, there are factors on both sides of the Tasman driving the latest kiwi exodus. The ‘pull’ factors are the attributes of Australia that make it look attractive to New Zealanders, and the ‘push’ factors are the attributes of New Zealand that make some residents want to leave.

As has often been the case in recent decades the primary pull factors seem to be economic – the strength of the Australian economy, the relatively low unemployment rate, and the higher level of salary and wages. The outlook for these factors must play a role in the decision making of kiwis currently considering a move across the ditch. 

The key objective of the Reserve Bank of Australia over the last couple of years has been taming inflation without stifling the economy. In its November Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA stated that ‘the recovery in Australian GDP growth has continued broadly as expected’. It forecasts annual GDP growth in 2026 of 1.9% rising to 2% in 2027. Solid but not spectacular.

In its November report on Australia, the International Monetary Fund reached  a similar conclusion –

Australia is managing a soft landing amid global uncertainty: inflation has declined significantly, the labor market is still strong, and private demand is recovering. The economy is gaining momentum, with growth forecast at 1.8 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026.        

The most immediate economic risk on the horizon is the return of high inflation. This  week’s CPI figures showed an unexpected jump in inflation to 3.8% in the year to October.      

The state of the Australian labour market is highly relevant to would-be migrants. Labour force data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last month revealed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October fell to 4.3% from 4.5% in September. According to the RBA, ‘indicators of labour demand such as job advertisements, vacancies and employment intentions point to a broadly stable outlook’.

Consistent with these relatively low levels of unemployment, there has been some, albeit very modest, growth in real wages. In the year to 30 September, the Wage Price Index rose 3.4% compared to a rise in consumer price inflation of 3.2%. The government was quick to point out that Australia has now had eight consecutive quarters of real wage growth, the longest period of quarterly growth in almost a decade.

Nevertheless, without productivity growth, the rise in real wages will be limited in most sectors.    

Of course, the Aussie dollar/Kiwi dollar exchange rate can have a significant impact on effective Australian wage rates for would-be kiwi migrants. Twelve months ago, a salary of A$100,000 equated to about NZ$110,000. At the time of writing, the figure is closer to NZ$115,000.

Who knows where the Aussie/Kiwi exchange rate will be in another twelve months. The RBA’s cash rate is currently 3.6% while the RBNZ has dropped its rate to just 2.25%. Future changes in that differential will influence the exchange rate, and with it the relative appeal of Australian incomes to restless New Zealanders.

One recent trend in Trans-Tasman migration has been the increase in older kiwis making the move. This includes both thirty-somethings with young families and 60+ retirees who find that their grandchildren live in Australia.

The exchange rate is a key factor for these groups because they usually have existing New Zealand based assets valued in NZ$s. Selling a house in NZ and converting the NZ$ proceeds into A$s represents a major financial decision, and a potential risk, particularly if you change your mind and decide to migrate back to NZ at a later date.  

Many’s the returning migrant who’s been whipsawed by currency movements.  

Housing is a major consideration for all migrants. This is perhaps the most challenging issue for kiwis contemplating a move to Australia. Both house prices and rents are at record highs and, according to the latest report from Cotality, increasingly unaffordable. The report finds that

three out of four national metrics (price-to-income ratio, years required to save a deposit, and the share of income needed to rent) have all hit record highs in 2025, signalling that both buying and renting have reached unsustainable levels for many Australians.

The most unaffordable city is Sydney with a median dwelling value as at 30 September of A$1,241,000 (NZ$1,425,000). Brisbane is second at A$970,000, followed by Perth and Adelaide on A$855,000. House prices are forecast to rise nationally by 6-10% next year, and by significantly more in some of the capital cities.     

Melbourne, a popular destination for kiwis, is now back in fifth place with a median value in September of just A$805,000. For many Aucklanders looking to move west, that may be a plus not a minus.

*Ross Stitt is a freelance writer with a PhD in political science. He is a New Zealander based in Sydney. His articles are part of our 'Understanding Australia' series.