QV says house prices down 2.0% from a year ago; 5.9% down from late 07 peak; Recovery shortlived with prices sliding in March. What are you seeing?

QV says house prices down 2.0% from a year ago; 5.9% down from late 07 peak; Recovery shortlived with prices sliding in March. What are you seeing?

By Bernard Hickey

Government-owned property valuer Quotable Value (QV) said prices were generally steady in March, but a recovery evident early in 2011 now looked to be shortlived because prices slid back again in Auckland and Wellington in March.

“Over the last twelve months nationwide values declined gradually through until December before becoming a little more variable in the months since. As a result values are now 2.0 percent lower than the same time last year, and 5.9 percent below the market peak of late 2007” said QV.co.nz Research Director, Jonno Ingerson.

“The levelling of national values in the last few months was largely driven by a slight recovery in values in Auckland and Wellington, offsetting the continued declines in provincial and rural areas. These first signs of a possible recovery in values were short lived as both Auckland and Wellington slid back again in March." Ingerson said.

QV's figures contrast with those from Auckland's biggest real estate agency chain, Barfoot and Thompson, which reported sharply higher volumes and prices for more expensive houses in March. See our article from last week's Barfoot and Thompson figures.

"With the uncertainty created by the Christchurch earthquake, and the low level of sales activity in previous months, it is reasonable to expect that there may be some volatility in the market for a few months” he said.

“There was a lift in activity in March, particularly in Auckland and Wellington, after a quiet January and February. First home buyers are back looking in the more affordable areas perhaps buoyed by lower interest rates. However many buyers remain non-committal, knowing that there is limited competition and that values are not expected to rise significantly in the short term. Good quality properties continue to attract interest and sell at the value expected.”

Ingerson said there was strong interest for well priced quality homes in suburbs that were not affected by the earthquake. This was also the case in the Waimakariri and Selwyn townships, along with an increase in demand for vacant sections. See more here from Harcourts figures for Christchurch in March.

The average New Zealand sales price over the last three months was NZ$400,656, down from the NZ$411,712 reported last month. QV's price index measures 'like for like' sales, whereas the average simply a pure average of prices and doesn't take into account the 'skew' from more expensive or cheaper houses selling.

Provinces down

None of the provincial centres have values above the same time last year, according to QV.

Compared to this time last year Whangarei is down 6.2%, Rotorua is down 4.2%, Gisborne is down 6.0%, Hastings and Napier were both down 1.5%, New Plymouth was down 3.7%, Wanganui was down 3.6% and Palmerston North was down 4.0%.

In the South Island Nelson has one of the strongest markets and now sits level with last year, while Queenstown Lakes is 1.7% below last year and Invercargill is down 3.4%.

Sales figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand are due out on Thursday.

(Updates with charts, details, links to Harcourts and Barfoot and Thompson figures)

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Hold on, but I thought they were going up?? This can't be right they ALWAYS go up!

It may make sense when we compare apples with orianges.

Barfoot's data was the unconditional sales in the March.

The QV data was the average price of all the sales settled in last three months. QV's data is more like the average sales price of the sales for Dec 2010, Jan 2011 and Feb 2011. It is not very common the sales settled in same month.

 

Never mind, Barfoots live in their own little bubble.

Ups and downs Muppet King.

But undeniable pressure on the up-side now. Just witness rental vacancy rates and rental prices.

 

One day one of us will be wrong Your landlord. I can stomach it, I hope you can too. I just hope that I'm the one wrong, because if I'm not, we're all buggered, PI or not.

Haha I made a pretty good investment call last year that resulted in 100% ROI. Don't think that was very wrong :)

Comparisons on YoY - while interesting and somewhat relevant - are less useful than movements month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Looking at things on a YoY basis completely misses the boat on if there has been an increased deceleration or acceleration.

I don't know what the movement is for March - and everyone shoudl wait for the REINZ statistics first (the only good data source for housing).

 

Keyser

Fair comment on waiting for REINZ. QV's numbers for March (and we don't really know what they say) are buried within the three month rolling average thing they do and the comparison of like-for-like houses selling in like-for-like suburbs.

I think the Barfoot and Harcourt numbers are more real on the month to month measure.

Something is brewing in Auckland in particular. The Usual Suspects (!)

cheers

Bermard

Bernard, what is brewing is a result of relatively little brewing in the last few years ie too few houses being built.

And as the economy slowly slowly improves, this shortage of properties is showing up in rising rents, rising prices and rising temperatures of many on this web site.

 

Sounds familiar!  "Most market economists argue Australia cannot suffer a housing market slump, because there has been under-building for years despite strong population growth, generating a shortage.…" But "..Prices have gone nowhere for the past year, but market dynamics suggest the scattered falls will become more widespread..."

Of the price indexs qv is the best. By comparing to a constant 2007 level we get insight into month changes, e.g this march prices DROPPED (dec figs replaced by march figs and drop went from 5.6% to 5.9%).

YoY figures are effected by how much prices changed last year (we no longer comparing to a constant), but even this figure is growing every month. 2% down, plus 4% inflation = 6% real losses = $24,000 less equity on a ave 400k house, so less money to play with to upgrade, so less demand, etc etc. Its why the downward cycle is extremely hard to break. I'll consider buying in 3-5 years, way more downside risk to house prices at present.

16% down so far in real terms from 2007 levels. Think of the PI's who are neutral/neg geared, a portfolio of 1.5m would have lost quarter a million dollars during this time. Thats why the PI's are so scared and desperate for prices to start lifting again;  at present no banks will lend to them. 

March is traditionally either the best or second best month in the year for activity and normally has a corresponding uplift in prices. If there has been a small rise in prices then I wouldn't consider that an upwards inflection, more a seasonal factor.

I think we might be in for an interesting winter. The extra activity, as seen by slightly higher mortgage approval levels, might provide the grease this market needs to unstick itself.

Oh dear the tide is going out and we can see naked sprookers...what an orrible sight.

...can also now see the naked cheerleaders like Barfoots...horrible...all their guff about the supercity driving prices up...shameless the stories they make up

Isn't it funny how people get excited about a slightest fluctuation the market price exhibits? The anti-property Hickey followers get full of joy following a small down-blip, their opponents tease them upon an up-blip. And both groups are so happy in their analysis-paralysis and arguing about the merits of a year-to-year approach vs. month-to-month, Barfoot's view vs. what Joe Blow sees, etc., etc.

It's time to step back, look at the bigger picture, "filter out" the short- and even medium- term fluctuations and see that the trend - due to underlying fundamentals - is up and that the fluctuations are just "noise" on that trend.

'... and see that the trend - due to underlying fundamentals - is up  '

Really? I would describe it as flat and probably down once inflation is allowed for.

You see Alex , balanced views are very hard to come by.

Alex13, you are entirely correct of course. But one of the current pleasures in life is teasing the doom, gloom and despondency brigade about their never-ending "here it comes", "it's about to happen" "just around the corner" comments about the "coming" house price collapse.

Of course it's not as enjoyable as borrowing the money they deposit in the bank and using it to purchase property. 

Alex

Check out the very long term chart above. The guts of it is prices stopped rising in 2007. That's four years ago...

cheers

Bernard

If you take the trouble to look at the RBNZ annual % of change data, you’ll see that for the period of the 4 years you refer to the annual % of change was negative for just over 1 year. I.e., for nearly 3 years out of the 4 years you refer to the prices were actually rising. And we are talking a period of a very severe financial crisis! Dips below zero in the annual % of change happened also around 1991/92 and 1998/99, but for most of the time the annual % of change line is sitting above zero.

The house prices appear to be quite “resilient”, even to the recent / current GFC, and certainly did not “crash” and “collapse” as predicted by some.

They’ll resume their upwards movement once the economic recovery is underway.

Hi,

I dont think you know how to do trends properly....

regards

A report from the reservation ...... after watching the housing market for a few years now, I have concluded the whole "house thing" is a huge smoke screen for what is really going on in the economy. It blinds so many ignorant and financially illiterate,  who can not see past "bricks and mortar" as an investment .

At the end of the day, it does not really matter, as so far,  the variances of sale prices have not been as great (up or down) as we all thought. Especially in Auckland, where I follow the market.

However the point of my lunchtime rave is this, the amount of debt we are servicing as a nation -  per week ! $250 mill + and climbing.  Say there are roughly 2 million working people in NZ  - that's $125 per week, per person from our taxes !! .............just being totally wasted to some financial institution overseas ! This is money LEAVING  THE COUNTRY !! .... THINK what this could be spent on !!

I have no time for banks .... there are just another business ..100% shareholder return driven plus making sure there is enough for the guys at the top for their "over the top" bonuses.  In fact, as I have a background in marketing, it makes me so sick how they portray that they do great things for you, your family and the community .... ALL THEY HAVE DONE IS MADE IT AN ABSOLUTE NECESSITY,  THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE 2 PEOPLE WORKING TO BUY A HOUSE AND SUPPORT A FAMILY !

However, all your taxes and mortgage interest repayments are heading their way !

As soon as the people of this country wake up and realise the damage residential property investment has done to this economy,  it will be too late !! and the ratings agencies will be downgrading NZ,  while the debt will become so large .....  I will leave you to work out what you think the scenario to follow will be........ ??? 

The Govt is posting world record budget deficits and the property market is still gradually sliding downwards...property is definitely on life support...how much longer will this car crash in slow motion go on for???

World record? only in NZ....otherwise, no pretty small...

regards

"world record" may sound like an exaggeration...but as a % of GDP it's actually a fact...refer to Brian Gaynor's article below:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10718036 

Thanks....2 things...1) our actual total debt is quite low....but yes the rate we are getting into it is a bit high. 2) Obviously BG and quite a few dont see tax increases as a possibilty....its not even mentioned which is interesting.  UK I think has raised the upper bracket........I wonder how long that can continue....

regards

 

Crazy simplistis analysis that ' the Banks have made it necessary for 2 people to work to buy a house and raise a family'.  Haven't you heard of the social revolution? Some decades ago  more and more women decided they too would have careers and work.  Some would say that's fair enough, but it did mean that there was a consequent bidding up of prices that people were able to pay and service.  Now it'seffectively a system based on dual incomes, whether you like it or not.  Can't remember any Bank mandatating about Women's Lib!

me .... when I was writing my previous blog I wasn't thinking at all of women's lib .... where did that come from !?

work for a bank do we 'me' ..... ?

What a load of crap that Banks have forced two people to work to get a home.

Try the "marketers"out there that push the message that everyone that they have a sense of entitlement,need to have a home in the best areas, two late model cars and an annual trip to the islands. The message pushed  in many magazines.

Banks haven't increased the average size of homes, limited control of land to force up values, addded to compliance costs to built etc.

Blame the Banks for everything. Next it will be their fault for climate change or when we lose the world cup.

Maybe individuals have to take some responsibility of the position they are in.

I can see why you are called 'Crazy', can't you see the effects of the social revolution with regards to the Women's Lib phenomenon?  Indeed Statistics from universities indicate women now in the majority of graduates. My wife, a psychologist, has 2 degrees and a daughter who is also highly qualified- she gets her brains from her mother, I've still got mine.   So we have the situation these days of capable, highly qualified women and double incomes, whether one likes ot or not.  And property prices no longer reflect what a single income can buy and service, even though the Demographia survey still pretends one should compare present circumstances with what it used to be.

And for the record, no I don't work for a Bank, in fact they could work for me as the BNZ leases one of my properties, and has been a tenant for the past 12 years.

me.... of course I can see the effects of 2 people working and what effect this would have on supply and demand,  especially when it comes to residential property.

That is just the way it is .... however my point and what I find so frustrating about the banks is that if you approach them for a business loan with no property as back up, they will run a mile. However, if you have equity in a house .... come in, welcome with a smile :) how much do you want and do you want fries with that ?

Residential property investment has done nothing for this country's economy.  Just think of all that bank mortgage interest money being chanelled instead into R & D and development of primary assets to 'add value',  instead of exporting raw logs straight from the forest to the ship.

Another thing about residential property investment is that you primarlily have the greediest members of society involved, all chasing the mighty dollar for themselves, therefore they all have a very "vested" interest and love to keep the "bubble" going . These groups include the PI's themselves and  real estate agents, lawyers, accountants, media, mortgage brokers, banks etc

When you look at that above list, what good do any of them do for the economy and to assist in its long term growth ?

When you have a society that produces 4 lawyers for 1 engineer  (NZ) as opposed to 4 engineers for 1 lawyer (Malaysia)  - who has been having the better deal for economic growth lately ?

Less than 20 years ago, the average single income man or woman in this country could afford to buy the average home - on their own, should they so choose. Today that's not possible. Today's 'singletons', by choice or circumstance, now have no choice but to find an interest paying partner of some description. Is that social progress for New Zealand?

Ah, yes, of course! Those countries with whom our average workers will soon be competing against for work, at their level of wages! After all, according to Mr. English, "that's our advantage" In 1959 New Zealand was 2nd on the OECD list of its Table of Standard of Living. Today we are 23rd.....and falling.

You missed the best 3rd world country of the lot...the USA.

regards

And 20 years ago the size of the average home was much smaller than today....if you keep adding m2 to a house it stands to reason it will cost more.

When Kiwis decide they want to go back to living in 100m2 fibrolite boxes then I would assume prices will start to come down.

Quite! That's when kiwis start living in accommodation suitable to their income, again, and not according to their unaffordable illusions. (It's more lilely to be some other non-toxic Hardy's medium, though, like Hardyboard.....)

Um you'll get one of those for bagin basement price of $800 000 in Otara... Slightly more on the North Shore!

Um you'll get one of those for bagin basement price of $800 000 in Otara... Slightly more on the North Shore!

Actually I think the number quoted now is 2.25...which if its true is plainly idiotic...

regards

lets keep calm and cool everyone.....

As I said to 28/29 year old after the Barfoots data, this can be volatile stuff

I still don't think the economic fundamentals support price increases in 2011, but lets wait and see

I agree with CH that the house prices have not changed that much. They'll move side-wide for a while before resuming the up-going trade, unless the fundamentals change.

The debt is a much bigger worry, although it is impotrant to differentiate between private debt and public debt. The latter one is a real bugger...

To Old hat economists and right wing Govns, yes...the result for 30 years everyone has turned a blind eye to private debt...

I think the realisation of that mistake has come about....ie its total debt that matters....as the USA, Ireland and iceland etc have found out.

regards

What I find so remarkable about this site (as well as the media in general) is how mathematically illiterate you all are so much so that you subscribe trends (and then wax lyrical about them suggesting all sorts of meanings) to what in fact is nothing more than a simple variation around the mean. These changes are not statistically significant.

In case you missed it New Zealand house prices in dollar terms continue to remain stable.

How could you possibly say the long term trend is up? Virtually every site monitoring house prices has an overall price decline for NZ over the past 12 months, and that is before any inflation adjustments.

12 months is hardly long term Stevo.

I agree with CH that the house prices have not changed that much. They'll move side-wise for a while before resuming the up-going trend, unless the fundamentals change.

The debt is a much bigger worry, although it is impotrant to differentiate between private debt and public debt. The latter one is a real bugger...

I think in April the rises may rise up, cause there has been some increased number at Auctions and more people coming to open homes.

Well....  that quarterly house price index graph is really looking more like the graph here http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype/  every quarter.

I do wonder if there is really a fundamental reason why Aust/NZ will be different to the "rest of the world".

Nothing like a "shock horror" headline  to grab the attention. 

The NBR  reports the same story today far more accurately:

"House values stable
  
New QV figures show national residential property values remained relatively stable in March, while signs of increasing activity were noted in Auckland and Wellington etc"

It never ceases to amaze me that  people take one month as the whole picture. All that matters is the trend over 6-12 months and the trend  depends which area you are in.

All the signs show so far that Åuckland is trendng up and over all the  price change over 12 months is 2%. down- big deal

Other areas are worse off but so they should be.

Many such areas were stupidly over priced as newbie investors were whipped into a frenzy by the same journalists ( not to mention spruikers) that wrote this latest codswobbe.

And to compare prices with  the " '07 peak" is also gross over simplication.

It's the same old story.

Journalists will never let the facts get in way of a good story.

 

 

 

I will never get sick of you BD :)

I just got an email from QV titled "Property Values Steady"...........

"Headline Hickey" strikes again.

 

Headline from Newstalk ZB "House prices drop"

YahooXtra Business...."House Values Stable".

 

Stuff website..NZ Pinot rated worlds best...have we got a graph for Martinborough??  could be worth a punt! and in years too come don't say i didn't tell you so.

Stuff.co.nz website "HOUSE PRICES PLUMMET"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4876997/House-prices-plummet

 

Of the price indexs qv is the best. By comparing to a constant 2007 level we get insight into month changes, e.g this march prices DROPPED. YoY figures are effected by how much prices changed last year, but even this figure is growing every month. 2% down, plus 4% inflation = 6% real losses = $24,000 less equity on a ave 400k house, so less money to play with to upgrade, so less demand, etc etc. Its why the downward cycle is extremely hard to break. I'll consider buying in 3-5 years, way more downside risk to house prices at present.

16% down so far in real terms from 2007 levels. Think of the PI's who are neutral/neg geared, a portfolio of 1.5m would have lost quarter a million dollars during this time. Thats why the PI's are so scared and desperate for prices to start lifting again;  at present no banks will lend to them.

And if you made $750k (ie prices doubled) on the way up whats the drama in giving back $250k of it ?

Lifes all about swings and roundabouts.....

 

Property buyers must have forgotten how to buy ? "Auction Buyer Information Evening (free)..Harcourts Cooper and Co invite you to attend, this Thursday at 05:30pm, for 45 minutes... you can learn EVERYTHING you need to know...  the session is designed to increase awareness and understanding ...from a buyers perspective"

In Auckland prices are only going one way and that is up. I personally have not seen any factors that will change this pattern any time soon. Possibly won't explode but I beleive the increase will be steady.

Why is up the only way they are going to go?

Oh yes, let me guess because of lack of supply and great demand???!!! Where have we heard that before?

Actually, people would be well advised to read ANZ's Property Report which correctly advises that property prices are much more than a product of supply and demand - household balance sheets are a big factor:

http://www.anz.co.nz/resources/7/5/75b51a80462713a4bd11ff26f4485eaf/PropertyFocus-20111703.pdf

Those guys at ANZ remain in my view the only credible bank economists, the only ones who are articulating the complexities inherent in house price movements rather than it being a simplistic supply / demand matter.

After all, if the economy tanked further and unemployment rose to 8% we would still technically have roughly the same supposed supply/demand imbalance (the supposed imbalance might be corrected a little by greater emmigration). According to some economists we have had a supply / demand imbalance the last 3-4 years yet prices dropped so there is not a simplistic relationship. But I guess if you are a property bull you aren't interested in such matters.

If someone can convince me how Auckland's economy is going to improve in any significant way beyond its current stagnation in the next 2 years then I would love to know!

Note I'm not arguing Auckland prices will drop away to any significant degree - the Auckland supply / demand issues will balance out with the general economic weakness, so in my view Auckland will be fairly flat the next year or so. but rest of  NZ - still see up to 5% fall

 

 

FYI this is why I see a weak-ish Auckland economy next 2 years:

- Continuing household deleveraging affecting discretionary spending on retail / entertainment

- Easing immigration / increasing emmigration

- Some mid to large Auckland infrastructure projects going on hold / getting cancelled due to Chch

- More Auckland workers eventially moving to ChCh to work on the rebuild (counter flow to current migration out of ChCh) 

- Minimal building development with limited finance still available

 - Tourism to remain subdued

I should have added: exchange rate remaining unfavourable to exporters

I'm still waiting for a bull to provide an argument as to why we can expect Auckland's economy to strengthen significantly next 1-2 years....... 

a workmate made a good point today, rapidly rising petrol prices will have a disproportionately greater negative impact on the Auckland economy by virtue of the city's size and traffic congestion 

Matt i think houses further out of the CBD will suffer but those further in will benefit.

Miss Piggy sitting next to me on my daugher's playdesk nods in agreement Kermit 

House prices will go steadily up, but I have personally made money alot faster in a down market.The last house we bought, 3 weeks ago, was approx 150k under valuation, well below the price of a far inferior house next door that sold at roughly the same time (same market).

What you property knockers don't realise is that this is alot harder to do in a rising market when everyones feeling good and full of positivity. But at the moment, with a little knowledge and common sense you can buy at virtually giveaway prices.

So even though QV say this and Barfoots say that, the current state of afairs can't last forever, even though alot of property investors would like them to, because of the buying opertunities, and house prices will do what they have for the last thousand years and go up in value.

Bugger me - we have rising rents, very low interest rates, rental shortages, building shortages developing, panicked sellers - this is bloody great.

Theres alot of talk about Auckland houses being over priced compared to the rest of the world, what a load of rubbish.

The PI's are certainly showing signs of panick today. And so they should. Higher interest rates are coming to curb inflation. Just how people will be able to borrow more has to be the big question.

Higher OCR? honestly I dont see it....I think our economy but especially the World's will remain in intensive care and I wouldnt be surprised if its in for a decade...The only Q is what happens as we get downgraded and private investors demand a higher return for the risk that will shove up mortgages I suppose. The kicker is at some stage I can see no option but for taxes to rise we have to pay todays debt back and when we dont recover by 2014/5 its going to be ugly IMHO.

regards

Nah, tulips are where it's at this year. They are so under-valued and will soon be back to their 1637 highs.

Bernard,

You haven't posted their normal press release and I can't see it on QV's website, so do we actually have the figures for ChCh, Wellington and Auckland.

It would be useful to see both volumes and prices to gauge where things are going, especially what the impact on prices in damaged versus undamaged areas were.

Is it just me or with all the Stats NZ data releases delayed and this one not mentioning figures in ChCh separately, that someone is trying to cover things up for a bit longer?  Perhaps until the Government puts a positive spin on some ugly results?

"Is it just me or with all the Stats NZ data releases delayed and this one not mentioning figures in ChCh separately, that someone is trying to cover things up for a bit longer?"

It is not just you. I suspect that "maintaining confidence" now has priority even if the result is the opposite. And it is not just with stats - I noticed with the Open Bank Regualtion that creditor's interests ranked lower than "maintining confidence".

 

Are we taxpayers idiots – wasting billions ?

 I spend a day in Blenheim today (not influenced by Wolly) and few hours in Christchurch last week – road work everywhere. It seems on some places they are even laying the red carpet. Also quite impressive the truck traffic.

Now, I ask the question is that what the government (Steven Joyce) calls billions spend on infrastructure ?

But it doesn’t end there - especially  trucks are constantly heavily using these roads and therefore more costs for maintenance/ repair for the roads – hmmm.

But it still doesn’t end there the trucks are drinking a lot of petrol to freight “things” from A to B – and that costs increasingly more money – hmmm.

..and I ask my self – what an economy is that ? Are we taxpayers idiots to allow such situations/ developments ?

 

Bernard you ask - What are you seeing ? I see the slow collapse of our society, because we simply cannot pay for the costs of living.

There is a very good graph that depicts that, but if you want a story the fall of the roman empire is worth researching on.

regards

Those roadworks are everywhere Walter, because the roads all decided to spontaneously explode 7 weeks ago. 

Most of the road works round town I've seen are hasty repairs, just a clean strip down the centre of the road to make it passable.  Actually the best effort I've seen is outside the side entrance of QEII park.  The land dropped about a metre and where the level of the old road and side entrance to QEII is under about a foot of water (from the swamp across the road), so the road repair is now a temporary isthmus.

Of course some of these repairs already need repaired thanks to the porridge underneath.

Next time you come up Walter you can park in our new multi story carpark...the coastal highway is in constant need of repair Walter because the land underneath is shit...every time it rains the water bursts the tarmac...cheaper to have a gang on constant repair work..also helps the windscreen replacement business!.....Trucks burn diesel by the way...back when govt rail had a monopoly and was used to hide the unemployment...getting goods from Chch to Blenheim took yonks and usually the stuff got pinched or lost. Trucking is far more efficient.

multi storey carpark? in Blenheim????? What next a light rail system?

That's quite wrong Matt...Blenheim will have a maglev...so there. It will run from the multi story carpark that will take 500 years to pay off...to the railway station....a journey of 2 seconds.

LOL!

but seriously a multi storey carpark in Blenheim? White elephant surely???? Monument to a bubble era / error????

Tell Walter to come at night Matt...parking in the new multi story carpark at night is free...he should bring a torch.

Not for free set it up as a tourist attraction and sell tickets for the top deck at night like they do at "The Groves" in LA :-)

Sold my Auckland property in March as really don't need it for a dozen short trips a year to the city.

So from April looking at booking hotels, I'm simply amazed how cheap the rates are during the week...good grief things must be bad. Can't say the same for Sydney, stayed with clients at a conference this past week, the rates are four times Aucklands. This is mid range 4-5 star properties.

 

yeah Blenheim's carpark could become a modern marvel of the world

it could represent the "step change" the country needs

no dafter surely than JK's forgotten and oh so inspired length of the land cycle trail....  

Every small town needs one Matt...where would we be without our multi story carpark that's free parking at night...something that will take 500 years to pay for...it's gonna come in handy every year when the wine festival is on...at least two days a year...and the Council will have somewhere to park all their utes and stuff. I reckon with a bit of barbed wire and some fencing, it'll revive the town centre as a sheep yarding location. It opens in June Matt. I think Bernard and Co should come on down cos she's gonna be the best white Elephant opening ever. No the plonk will not be free but there are some used corks to sniff.

With respect Kunst I see your point. It seems us taxpayers are paying for all these infrastructure improvements.  But we're not really.

Our tax dollars have already been gobbled to pay for public service wages, hospitals, schools, etc. 

The dollars paying for the roadworks you saw today come from a faceless overseas financial institution that creates dollars out of thin air, then lends it to our Govt who uses it to pay for tarseal and concrete and diesel, etc.

What if we decide we want more new roads?  If the Govt needs to buy more tar, they just borrow more money.  If the price of tar rises, which it surely will, the Govt will just borrow more funny money to pay the asking price.  Why...so it can pay road workers so that unemployement stays down and we can carry on the charade that the economy is in a slow recovery.  Job growth must equal economic growth right?  Wrong.

Peter Schiff recently had a brilliant explanation as to why oil will probably continue to rise under QE2.  If 100 barrels are auctioned to 100 buyers who each have only $100, the price per barrel will be $100.  If the same auction is held but each buyer has $1000 the price per barrel will be $1000.  QE2 (and in NZ's case - more borrowing) creates lots of price inflation.  It's creeping up on us.  The problem really hits us when interest rates rise and Govt can't pay the interest on all the borrowed money.  That's our great crisis on the horizon steaming towards us like a magnetic superliner - our Ireland moment!

Mismanaged economy !

With the current heavy showers along the "Kaikoura Coast" I wouldn’t be surprised Highway one and rail track being closed over night for a week again, because of slips.

How much money is our economy losing, our government not talking “Climate Change” into consideration in their planning ahead ? (New Buildings/ infrastructure constructed -  near sea - 0-4m above sea- level etc)

All over the country works are executed laying the red carpet - tar sealing roads, which actually don’t need to - but how much work is done – securing existing roads from rock-falls/ erosion/ slips ? Bridges ?

 Big words on paper - no enough actions :

http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/physical-impacts-and-adaptation/

 http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate/adaptation/planning.html

Walter, I have wondered - are the rail lines affected by these slips or just the road?.  Getting rid of the fords on the coast road has taken some of the 'romance' out of the drive, but is much safer.  I have seen some near miss accidents with traffic at night nearly crashing in to the barriers when the ford was closed.

Rising commodity prices dont push up core inflation much....so says the Chicago Fed.

"Clearly, higher prices of food and energy end up in the broadest measures of consumer price inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index,” the paper said. But over the last generation “sharp increases and decreases in commodity prices have had little, if any, impact on core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy prices,” the policy makers wrote."

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/11/chicago-fed-paper-commodity-pr...

(wow what a long url!)

the kicker,

"The paper’s conclusion that oil prices are mainly a force to retard growth, as they sap consumers’ spending ability, is a familiar contention among central bankers." Oh look acts jsut like an OCR hike....

regards

 

House-boom signs look strong, says QV's expert

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10718867

see BH - more than one way to skin a cat, or to view a subject

Regards - President of Property

Yes and note the comment made.... "The indication is that buyers, perhaps because of low interest rates, are stepping into the market more seriously in some areas. "....like that don't yah PoP...bet you won't like it when the rates rise post the election...be spitting the dummy time PoP...market will go pop pop plop.

Of course people going to go buying houses, what else do they expect, they have caused this situation, by encouraging ridiculously low interest rates for an extented period of time, while tax polices that still encourgage people to go investing in property above all else.

With inflation getting out of control, who would be mad enough to save money in this country?

What else do they expect to happen, if they want people to save, they better make some serious changes, otherwise nothing will ever happen, and the economy will just keep getting more and more out of balance and weaker all the time, and more in debt.

 

you got it, that's one facet, cause property aint a bubble, it's a diamond, and once you got it, you just make it shine...

Priceless

President of Property

 

strong?  try reading the piece with open eyes...

regards

I've always been puzzled why some individuals at QV try to put a positive spin on things when in theory they should be pretty impartial. The only reason I can think of is that they are based in Auckland, where (as we all know) things are different ;-)

Simon, QV’s major employer is the Auckland Council for rates revaluation. Auckland Council require the rateable values to increase substantially to pay for their massive deficit spending per the annual plan. It is therefore in QV’s interests to promote price increase statistics for their paymaster.

Please be very circumspect about your July1 rates valuation. I suspect they will try to pump it up so you pay more of their bill.

One thing I cant get my head around is the ongoing complaining from various quarters that house prices always used to be 3.0 x the average income and they must go back to that ratio.

If the average new house size has increased by 73% since 1976 then all things being equal doesnt that suggest the multiple should be in excess of 5x...and is not going to come down significantly in the near future ??

www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/4045718/Housing-The-supersized-puzzle

Isn't the question then: "Why are homes 73% larger now than in 1976?" Are families larger? I doubt it; in fact smaller I'd suggest. So what economic rationale is there for a larger home today? My observation is that there are many 'larger homes' or 4 and 5 bedrooms, with sometimes only a couple, often late middle-aged to elderly, living in them. What's the point? I guess it looks good when the rellies come to, ocassionally, visit or stay ( "Look at what our lifetimes work has bought for me and your Mum!'), but other than that it's too large to clean and maintain; too large to furnish and a waste of alernative application of excess funds.

I guess one of the answers is that it is what people want.....and as we all know once we have had a taste for something it takes some giving up.

But as we find out as time goes on ( and it does; quickly!) is that 'bigger is not always better'. As 'us oldies', age, or singleton couple don't have children ( can they afford to, if they need two incomes just to buy the house!) we will want 'better in smaller'. Well I do anyway! Sod this cleaning, furnishing insuring, and paying rates on 4 or 5 rooms that I never used. When we had 'us' plus three teenagers, fine. But now; no thank you... 

There are those who say house prices have stabilised, and those who predict a significant decline to come.  Where's the problem?  If you think there are good buying opportunities and the sums stack up, who cares what others might think?  I'm confident that if you look hard enough and make a move when the opportunities present themselves there are some good buys to be made now.  But if you prefer to sit on the sidelines, then who cares if some think otherwise. Just do what you feel is right and no need to try and convince anyone else.