CoreLogic says there are signs the Auckland housing market is slowing, with fewer valuations being ordered and a decline in auction sales

There has been a slow down in the number of valuations being ordered for Auckland residential properties, according to property data company CoreLogic, which has a close association with Quotable Value.

In a newsletter to QV.co.nz customers, CoreLogic NZ Director of Research Jonno Ingerson said the first signs of a slowing in Auckland's housing market are becoming evident.

"Over the past few weeks there has been an increasing number of auctions not reaching their reserve, along with fewer bidders at auctions and lower attendances at open homes," he said.

"The lack of action from Chinese buyers has been commented on by some real estate firms and that could well be a direct result of the wobble in the Chinese stock markets about a month ago.

"To support those stories we are also seeing a slowdown in the number of valuations on Auckland properties.

"This valuation activity closely tracks subsequent purchases so a slowdown in valuation activity should mean we are going to see a slowdown in sales.

"A few weeks ago the number of new listings surged but in subsequent weeks this too has weakened.

"These things may not sound much on their own but this is the time of the year when valuations, sales and listings all tend to trend up strongly in the run up to Christmas," he said.

Other forces may also be having an impact on the Auckland market Ingerson said, such as new tax rules on residential investment properties and a pending revamp of the loan to valuation ratio restrictions for new mortgages.

"If word on the street is to be believed then sentiment may be changing," he said.

"People are now talking about an Auckland slowdown. That could well be self-fulfilling."

However there were also clear signs that there were Auckland-based investors buying properties in Hamilton for the first time and pushing out first home buyers in the process, he said.

There were so many moving parts in the market, however, that it was difficult to predict which way it would turn.

"If potential buyers and sellers in Auckland start getting spooked, then some heat in the market could come out very quickly.

"My pick is that Auckland value growth will slow a little in the coming months while other areas pick up until December," Ingerson said.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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14 Comments

Wobbles in share markets will have more to do with overseas buyers being less involved in the market than some will think. Sydney is having some wobbles and part of that will be that the Australian share market had a very rough September. A majority of Australians are holding shares either through their superannuation accounts or through their personal accounts or both. There was a lot of retail buying in the Chinese share markets. When people feel good about shares it makes them feel good about property. Are we now see the reverse.

I think some of these buyers have fled because they don't want to have a NZ bank account and provide their tax details under the new RBNZ rules. The timing is no coincidence, numbers dropping off when there is the requirement for additional scrutiny. A few more months of data will tell if the changes have worked to curb speculators.

Hopefully when this bedded in for new purchases, the government will require the same details from existing overseas owners. It seams a logical next step.

What is this guys quals and experience again? I don't know why his 'comments' deserve publishing. He sees nothing any of us don't have access too (i.e month + old sales data which last time I checked showed auckland prices up 25% year on year).

Or have QV got a secret database of 'number of attendees at open homes' that they keep just for themselves so they can publish such articles?

Where are the stats to back up anything he's just said? Valuations are 'down'? How much? As a percentage? Sept 2015 vs Sept 2014.

He's a headline seeker. The markets eithers booming or busting with him, reality almost always somewhere much more boring in between.

secret mens business

The Auckland market peaked a couple a months ago, I don't know anyone buying but there are plenty selling hard.

Correction time.

Coming from Happy 123 this is interesting. Maybe the day of reckoning has arrived!

I see in Tauranga many Auckland mum and dad investors lately spreading Auckland's optimism and bringing to the Bay the secret of eternal wealth.

Clearly when regulations aim speculators it gets good results. Sadly it is too late and the risk is systemic.. The correction will not only hit gamblers.

I was prehaps a bit harsh on old jonno after now reading the original newsletter which is more numbers/facts based. The newsletter focuses more on hamiltons never before seen rate of price rises than the Auckland slow down

For some time In Australia The Government and the Federal Police have suspected that the Australian Property Markets have been used by Organised Criminal Groups from Asian Countries, and some Internal Crime Syndicates, to launder Dirty Money from Criminal Activities of all kinds. The Australian Real Estate Industry have been issued with directives by the Government to tighten up the reporting and auditing of these property dealings, but have been slow on the uptake. One has to wonder how much Dirty Money from Asian Crime Syndicates and other Criminal Groups may be hidden in Auckland's Overpriced Property Sectors, If it's happened in Australia it may be happening here ? About time things are tightened up.

Horrible to think that a proportion of hard working people's debt might be caused by international criminals - if what you say is true.

Listen to the chatter

When the official word from the Chartered Accountants of Australia and New Zealand start talking about it and running the baloon up the starters pole you should listen and pay attention

Are Australia and New Zealand Corrupt?
Australia and New Zealand perform well in global measures of corruption, and both countries trade on reputations for honesty and integrity. However, rates of corruption are reported to be rising and we are trading increasingly often with countries that are considered to be highly corrupt. Despite positive survey rankings, Australia and New Zealand have been subject to harsh criticism in recent years for what is perceived to be a lackadaisical approach to corruption. This paper examines the perception that Australia and New Zealand are nations relatively free of corruption and what is in place to mitigate it.

http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au/futureinc/Publications#Corrupt

You have to remember that CoreLogic is the old Valuation Department in drag, with about as much belated knowledge as the VD had. They have no secret source of wisdom, just dated data.

The Government needs to control by regulation the excessively high commission rates most of the real estate companies/salespeople are allowed to charge, in some cases for very little actual work, all advertising should be paid for by the company/salesperson not by the vendor. Overpriced commissions and hype talk also helps to fuel the overrated/overpriced Auckland market which appears to be flowing down the country like the bullshxt the Auckland property market has become.