Auckland's average property values are still rising as they head towards $1 million, but rate of growth slowing says QV

Auckland's average property values are still rising as they head towards $1 million, but rate of growth slowing says QV

Average housing values are continuing to increase around the country with the average value of homes in Auckland hitting $931,807 last month, according to Quotable Value (QV).

Around the rest of the country average dwelling values were $435,848 in Hamilton, $525,758 in Tauranga, $468,902 in the Wellington region, $480,464 in Christchurch and $306,614 in Dunedin.

The average dwelling value for the whole country was $555,729 in November, up 15% compared to 12 months earlier and up 4% in the last three months.

In Auckland the average dwelling value increased by 24.4% in the last 12 months and 6.5% in the last three months.

Within Auckland, the average dwelling value is $801,398 in Rodney, it's $1,088,059 on the North Shore, $1,095,480 in Central Auckland, $796,950 in Manukau, $747,664 in Waitakere, $595,557 in Papakura and $575,259 in Franklin.

However QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said the rate at which property values were increasing in Auckland was beginning to slow.

In the three months to October the average value of Auckland homes increased 7.3% but in the three months to November this slipped to 6.5%.

"Homes values in Auckland are still increasing but at a slower rate than last month and it appears new rules to curb investors, along with restrictions on the capital flow out of China, have led to an easing the market," Rush said.

But while the rate of growth was slowing in Auckland it was picking up in other parts of the country.

"The Wellington market is showing a definite upward tick in values along with Dunedin, as investors look to new markets around the country," Rush said.

"After a slow start to spring Christchurch is also showing more activity with values there rising in most places at a faster pace than it did over the winter months.

"Net migration continues at record highs and interest rates lower than 4% are now being offered ahead of the expectation that the Reserve Bank will lower the OCR this month, so it will be interesting to see how these factors impact on the market over Christmas," she said.

QV House Price Index 
 November 2015
           
  Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change% 3 month change % Since 2007 market peak change %
  Auckland Region   931,807 24.4% 6.5% 70.5%
  Wellington Region 468,902 4.1% 2.5% 2.9%
# Main Urban Areas 667,220 17.6% 4.6% 45.3%
  Total NZ 555,729 15.0% 4.0% 34.1%
  Far North 328,038 7.2% 2.9% -17.6%
  Whangarei 373,559 10.7% 5.7% -5.7%
  Kaipara 357,569 6.5% -1.7% -9.9%
  Auckland - Rodney 801,398 18.7% 6.6% 36.6%
  Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 789,822 17.8% 6.4% 34.5%
  Rodney - North 814,954 19.6% 6.7% 35.7%
#A Auckland - North Shore 1,088,059 24.1% 5.6% 68.6%
  North Shore - Coastal 1,244,613 24.9% 6.0% 65.2%
  North Shore - Onewa 877,753 23.2% 3.8% 77.0%
  North Shore - North Harbour 1,048,381 23.4% 7.0% 72.5%
#A Auckland - Waitakere 747,664 28.4% 6.3% 76.3%
#A Auckland - City 1,095,480 22.8% 6.1% 76.0%
  Auckland City - Central 951,386 22.5% 6.9% 67.1%
  Auckland_City - East 1,367,684 21.9% 6.7% 71.6%
  Auckland City - South 994,392 23.9% 5.1% 84.7%
  Auckland City - Islands 900,946 20.6% 3.1% 40.9%
#A Auckland - Manukau 796,950 27.8% 8.0% 74.1%
  Manukau - East 1,019,388 24.8% 6.6% 71.0%
  Manukau - Central 622,567 31.2% 8.2% 65.6%
  Manukau - North West 676,901 29.5% 9.1% 83.2%
#A Auckland - Papakura 595,557 32.0% 8.9% 65.5%
  Auckland - Franklin 575,259 19.5% 5.3% 45.4%
  Thames Coromandel 544,861 7.7% 3.4% -6.3%
  Hauraki 262,553 12.3% -0.4% -5.9%
  Waikato 330,568 17.8% 6.7% 9.2%
  Matamata Piako 303,531 13.3% 5.8% 4.0%
# Hamilton 435,848 18.6% 8.7% 20.6%
  Hamilton - North East 554,583 19.8% 9.1% 23.4%
  Hamilton - Central & North West 406,515 20.1% 8.8% 13.6%
  Hamilton - South East 396,811 17.1% 7.8% 13.5%
  Hamilton - South West 383,684 17.6% 8.7% 12.1%
  Waipa 381,310 10.4% 5.3% 15.8%
  Otorohanga N/A N/A N/A N/A
  South Waikato 144,039 14.0% 7.1% -11.7%
  Waitomo 145,655 3.9% 0.1% -31.4%
  Taupo 356,724 6.9% 0.8% -10.9%
  Western BOP 452,944 7.3% 2.6% 0.5%
# Tauranga 525,758 15.5% 6.6% 9.2%
  Rotorua 291,963 8.6% 6.7% -0.6%
  Whakatane 307,205 4.4% 2.6% -11.7%
  Kawerau 103,741 1.4% 2.0% -34.9%
  Opotiki N/A N/A N/A N/A
  Gisborne 232,128 1.8% 1.3% -21.9%
  Wairoa 145,867 0.8% 2.9% -40.4%
  Hastings 317,612 7.1% 1.7% 1.9%
# Napier 338,960 3.9% 1.9% -0.4%
  Central Hawkes Bay 213,234 5.2% 4.3% -19.6%
  New Plymouth 373,450 5.3% 3.2% 12.9%
  Stratford 213,471 7.8% 5.7% -2.4%
  South Taranaki 188,755 1.2% 2.7% -4.5%
  Ruapehu 131,274 -2.7% 2.9% -27.2%
  Whanganui 184,696 1.5% 1.9% -17.6%
  Rangitikei 144,644 1.1% 1.9% -20.1%
  Manawatu 252,439 5.2% 3.2% -0.7%
# Palmerston North 298,847 3.6% 1.5% 0.2%
  Tararua 150,797 -0.8% 0.9% -14.5%
  Horowhenua 210,957 3.1% 1.9% -11.3%
  Kapiti Coast 388,890 2.7% 1.7% 1.5%
#W Porirua 391,273 3.2% 2.8% 2.4%
#W Upper Hutt 344,625 3.1% 2.9% -1.9%
#W Hutt 383,531 4.2% 2.8% -2.3%
#W Wellington 558,211 3.9% 2.1% 4.8%
  Wellington - Central & South 564,985 3.6% 1.9% 0.8%
  Wellington - East 608,460 3.8% 2.5% 5.6%
  Wellington - North 489,284 4.2% 1.7% 5.0%
  Wellington - West 643,393 4.4% 2.7% 5.9%
  Masterton 241,442 1.6% 3.4% -15.5%
  Carterton 260,614 -0.7% -3.9% -6.5%
  South Wairarapa 311,263 4.2% 3.3% -8.0%
  Tasman 434,123 4.6% 2.3% 8.1%
# Nelson 424,022 3.6% 2.0% 10.7%
  Marlborough 362,991 5.3% 2.8% -6.9%
  Kaikoura N/A N/A N/A N/A
  Buller 191,377 -5.3% -0.1% -6.9%
  Grey 212,192 -3.9% -4.0% -13.2%
  Westland 229,912 0.6% -1.9% -4.2%
  Hurunui 358,486 7.2% 0.7% 14.7%
  Waimakariri 417,122 1.3% -0.1% 30.3%
# Christchurch 480,464 2.9% 0.9% 26.6%
  Christchurch - East 364,385 3.9% 0.9% 17.7%
  Christchurch - Hills 649,558 4.1% 1.2% 17.4%
  Christchurch - Central & North 565,568 3.2% 1.5% 27.7%
  Christchurch - Southwest 455,177 2.1% 0.2% 34.1%
  Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 487,377 1.4% -0.7% 1.4%
  Selwyn 522,414 2.7% 1.1% 40.1%
  Ashburton 338,255 3.4% 3.4% 20.9%
  Timaru 312,663 7.4% 1.6% 24.6%
  MacKenzie 330,962 18.1% 8.7% 15.5%
  Waimate 210,944 5.5% 6.2% 11.9%
  Waitaki 230,138 3.8% 0.4% 0.8%
  Central Otago 337,421 5.8% 1.7% 6.4%
  Queenstown Lakes 756,665 9.3% 3.5% 10.0%
# Dunedin 306,614 5.1% 2.4% 7.1%
  Dunedin - Central & North 323,425 7.5% 4.0% 7.2%
  Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 280,648 5.9% 1.9% 3.7%
  Dunedin - South 287,399 3.3% 1.1% 0.7%
  Dunedin - Taieri 316,037 3.9% 2.0% 7.5%
  Clutha 167,203 0.5% 1.1% -7.7%
  Southland 212,662 3.1% -0.4% -7.6%
  Gore 184,396 0.9% -1.4% 4.9%
# Invercargill 214,880 5.0% 3.3% -2.6%
Notes on the above data:    
1. The information included in the above table is based on the monthly property value index. This index is calculated based on the sales data entered into CoreLogic's system in the previous 3 month period. For example, information for the period ending June will be calculated based on sales entered between April 1 and June 30.
2. The average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It is not an average or median sales price, as both of those only measure what happens to have sold in the period.
3.  The percentage change over three months, twelve months and since the 2007 market peak are based on the change in the property value index between that time and the current.
4. Any of the statistical data shown in italics are calculated based on a sample set of data that is less than the recommended minimum. These results should be used with caution. Those showing N/A had too few sales to generate an index

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

63 Comments

OMG surely Auckland's average property value will crawl past $1m by June-2016??

It is so exciting and you never have to pay it off, just keep refinancing and can even leverage it up and get some poor mug to pay the divy, out in the boondocks.

Never have to work again, never have to factor in any other problems.

Perhaps that is why Banks in general do not own all the worlds real estate, but expect someone else to pay, up front and so magnanimously, with just a teeny weeny deposit.

Most data still prior to the new rules coming in, QV are around 2 months behind as go on settlement dates not date S and P signed from what I've heard.

I've been waiting over a month to find out what a particular property sold for in October but the sale still isnt updated on the QV website.

From memory, solicitors (or other conveyancers) complete a Notice of Sale and forward it to the local council at their leisure. The councils load that info into their property databases and QV gets a periodic data dump. One to two months delay sounds about right.

Momentum assets can take on a life of their own, running far beyond what you think they should, and providing great rewards right up to the point of reversal when the risks suddenly become obvious, large and realized quickly. Value investors, those who search for new market trends, must find a way to enter assets at cheap prices that don’t become cheaper or exit assets at prices that are dear but not so dear they take on momentum style risk. Neither practice is easy which is why alpha – true alpha – is so hard to come by.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/11/28/things-everybody-knows/

Wow , this cannot go on indefinitely . A market so rampantly out of control can only crash spectacularly .

Its also unfair and could become National's undoing , because its remiss of the authorities to sit on their hands and do nothing .

Its also ludicrous to think that our modest $1,0 million home in Greenhithe is giving me an unrealised "gain" every year equal to 3 times what I earn , and that is over and above what I earn.

And if I crystalize the "gain" , its tax free .

It is an injustice unfolding for everyone unable to own their own home and benefit from this largesse .

It will ensure inequality is worsened in the long-run

Problem as I see it - even if it is National's undoing, there really is little any other incoming government can do but wait and hope it doesn't crash spectacularly under their watch.

Meantime, the pressure to pay civil servants (teachers, police, nurses etc.) a premium for living in Auckland will grow stronger and stronger.

You said it in one Kate, in fact NO government wants it to crash under their watch, even if we have a change at the next election which is highly unlikely the housing issue is a hot potato thats going to get passed on and no one wants to get burned.

Sell and rent. It's the smartest move :-)

Your one of those guys who is going to hit retirement still waiting for the property crash and be getting food parcels from the sallies cos you cannot afford your rent.

unlikely the government will increase the housing supplement, might not be this one but sooner or later one will.
Then who pays you ask, I suspect the same government will sneak a TAX on housing to pay for it.
WFF was brought in to help families so don't be surprised when some new scheme is brought forth to help families and the less well to do house themselves

No. I'm one of those guys who decides not to sell his soul to banks and not to buy with banks' money + interests what I cannot afford despite banks telling me otherwise and media and "investors/speculators" encouraging me to get "into the ladder".

Are you one of those guys who think property is the only way to save? Or one of those who think house prices always go up? Because in the long term their increase is ZERO according to historical data in countries like Holland (which by the way has bigger restrictions to build).

How sad must be to rely on ever-growing house prices to have a "future". Ponzi-scheme mentality.

this will cost the government in the long run, this one seems quite content to kick the can down the road and let the mess it will create grow
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/74586998/more-nz-retirees-will-bec...

..if house prices had remained stable and our income reduced in proportion to current rises, there would be rioting in the streets. I cannot beleive how this govt is managing to smile, wave and downplay this matter? I guess the opposition parties and msm are all landlords too?

Good comment but you left out, "in Auckland".

I base my personal property investment forecasts on 6-7% capital value increase per annum. I'm not sure why I bother any more though.

We cant even suggest its all relative

25 years ago our first 3 bed home cost 3 times my annual gross salary .

Now the same home would be 9 times my annual gross salary

Things have gotten way of kilter with reality

I too recall the first time I owned a house that I would not have been able to afford to purchase from myself :-). It's nuts alright.

$ no longer links to gold. They are just paper and the more it got printed the less value it has.

Or, the number house built is a lots less than the amount of paper $ got printed.

16
up

Screw this. Decision's been made - we're off to Australia.

We're an Auckland couple in our 30's who want to settle down, buy a house and start a family - clearly this isn't a good place to do that (anymore). To borrow empty right wing rhetoric, we've been "working hard" and "making sacrifices" for years now and we're going nowhere.

The government doesn't give a toss about young kiwi families - they're an absolute joke and our media just feeds the selfish, greedy vibe that's everywhere I go. "I made XX% capital gain last year" "My house is worth $XXX,XXX - sweet as!"

I've been head-hunted for a job in Melbourne paying 40% than the same position in Auckland and houses are about 10-15% cheaper AFTER converting to NZ dollars.

If my kids grow up to become Aussie so be it. I don't see much to proud of in NZ anymore.

Value Added, congratulations on a great decision, I doubt you'll regret it.

We moved from to Australia from Auckland four years ago it's been great. Salaries are MUCH better, cost of living is similar (except Sydney) and you'll be amazed at how much you can save.

If it all turns to custard in Auckland you can always move back.

Absolutely. You'll do well overseas. Don't look back.

Good Luck,
melbourne looks like they are cooling so timing could be spot on for your move

Well done Value, good decision as a great city which seems to welcome all. Finding our feet in Wellington and enjoying the sea views and discussions not involving house values. Hopefully the kids will like out decision later in life as I am sure yours will.

It will be a good thing to do , some overseas experience is good for your CV and you may even make it big . good luck

10
up

Good luck from an older person who is embarrassed by the greed of his generation..

But wait there's more: A diabetic medication that is undergoing clinical trials may extend the life of 50-70 year olds to age 120, all those "I want it all" baby boomers consuming the earth's resources for their gratification. The pills cost 10 cents per day. The 50 % increase in lifespan means our present 7 billion is more like 10.5 billion. So much for a planet that can sustainably support 2 billion people.

Not sure what bender's comment has to do with the current thread of discussion but it was about time for the obligatory boomer bashing.

Thanks rastus!

11
up

A sensible decision sadly. I recall Matt in Auck some years ago heading to Adelaide. Will miss your contribution here as well. Very disheartening to lose good hard working young folks wishing to start a family.

Haven't seen Matt in Auck here for ages. He's well & truly gone :(

Thanks Kate! I've appreciated reading your comments

I moved back from Australia to Auckland as I was homesick and wanted to spend time with friends and family but I'm in a much much worse position financially here. I work hard, save, do everything I am supposed to and will never be able to afford a house in mine and 6 generations of my family's home town. Greed and a lack of foresight has infected my country. It's a tragedy.

..yep the place is getting well and truly raped. From a land of plenty to a land of people who want plenty.

Ngrrk.....Can you get financial assistance from on of the family as you have stated that 6 Generations in your home town. In China many parents buy the house for their children when they marry. Then the children work with out having to send all their earnings to the bank making them wealthy enough to purchase their childrens homes. I think with the new prices in Auckland that model will come in to play here.

No family support. They have their own problems to worry about. They shouldn't have to help me anyway, I should be able to afford it just as they and every generation before were able to.

Smart move. If we hadn't already bought here and started a family, we would be doing the same thing. We know a few people who have quit NZ and they're much better off for it.

As a country we're selling our future for a quick buck. It's very sad.

Lovely city Melbourne. My Mum just bought a 2 bedroom unit for AUD$760k. My sister, a medical Dr and her husband, a lawyer can't afford to buy inner city because saving the deposit on a $1.5M+ house (i.e. 200sqM of land) is proving a challenge.

Not so sure you'll find the affordable housing you are dreaming of there. Good public transport though so check out Frankston and Healesville for affordable housing.

The grass is always greener on the other side. How dare you imply that it might not be! :)

I have lived in Aus on two separate occasions and still work in Aus 15-20 weeks per year. Moved back to NZ as schooling is appalling in Australia. Private Brisbane school most difficult to get into (I work as a Dr so they make exceptions) standard was less than NZ public primary school on Kapiti Coast. The youngest stated it was his favourite school, as the work was so easy. Also big drug problem in Aus High Schools, regular in ED to see Aus 16-18 year old high school kids from upper middle class families use amphetamines at weekend parties, called ice in Aus not P. And having worked in Aus since 2002, can see Aus is going backwards and NZ forwards, Aus has priced itself of mining business with high wages and 100% plus capex blow outs on large projects. Aus is living beyond it's means running large deficits to fund an inefficient large social welfare state. If you think NZ has a problem go to Aus, you will see bludging on a grand scale. Top tax rate 45% + medicare levy, + debt reduction levy (was flood levy 3-4 years back).

$760k seems high for a 2 bedroom unit - I've been looking. It must be pretty flash!

I don't think it's going to be easy, but the salary on offer and impressive super makes building a future for me and my family possible.

In Auckland the future just looks depressing. You're either working or sitting in traffic. Not the life I want!

Good location hence the price premium. Nothing flash though. Just the price of location.

Congrats on getting headhunted and if it's a good career move you won't regret it. Don't fool yourself about the reality though. Traffic in Melbourne nowadays is appalling. Property is expensive.

A returnee from Melbourne to NZ after too many years away. I must have liked the place to stay away so long. Dont be misled about traffic congestion - it's bad - peak hour can be bad-bad - avoid looking for property out west over the Westgate Bridge or around the western ring road - just as bad if not worse than Auckland - give up and go home if there is a bad prang

Property prices can be reasonable in some places, not so reasonable in other places. I was located in one of the better Bayside suburbs 30kms north of Frankston, 30 kms nearer the CBD. Frankston central is 55 kms south of Melbourne CBD although can use Eastlink Toll road. Better by train during peak-hour.

Went through the motions of talking to the local real estate agent getting estimates and prices to sell my place. Bit dismayed and disappointing. He asked me how much I was looking for. Told him if he could find a chinese buyer who could make me an offer I could not refuse I would sell immediately. He laughed and said the chinese buyers contained their buying to specific eastern suburbs of Glen Waverley, Mount Waverly, Balwyn, and Doncaster with the high rollers going for Toorak. Not interested in anywhere else. Sorry he said, cant help you there.

Worthwhile being near accessible public transport - metro trainlines - when I discovered the frequency and ease of use of the rail system I never used my car to venture into the city again. Twice as long to go by car and CBD car-parking very expensive - almost like renting a spare house

Value Added .... great idea ! go for it, you will not regret it :)

I was in Melbourne last week and loved it ..great restaurants and lotsa sports - if you're into that.
I was also amazed how way less "snobby" or arrogant the people were about their wealth or "status".

Totally agree about the "self entitled", greedy baby boomers !!! .... you can argue with them till you are blue in the face, but they will never listen, as their ideas are "set in stone"

Melbourne's great for sport! And yes, I've found people there very down to earth - quite different to Auckland.

Thanks mate!

Auckland or Australia. The only alternatives.

A ginger bread house in the portfolio could be handy if there is a faeces / fan fandango in the next few years.

Did well to get that username through old son. Not a relation of the Canal family are you?

Don't get too depressed. The market is slowly slowing down. Wait for the RE numbers to come out

I think there is a realization emerging that this could be a bubble, but the more soothing words of comfort that emanate from govt, economists, banks, and the REA foot soldiers that suggest that it isn't represents the growing possibility that it actually is. Robert Schiller used to talk about this very same phenomenon.

What bubble? Soon we can all just stop working anyway. Based on 1.5 million houses, 15% annual value increases and 4.5 million punters - within 10-11 years we can all be pocketing $100k a year in increased house values just by sitting at home playing play station. NZ really is blessed.

"Possibility of a bubble." The wise ones (the Keys, the Barfoots, the Alexanders, the journos) would not explicitly deny it. They tend to weasel around the words so they don't have to deal with it (it doesn't matter how good these people are, they're out of their league when it comes to asset bubbles). Or as John Key said on Q&A on Sunday "it's all about supply and demand", which anyone who understands distorted markets and "potential bubbles" is another way of trying the suggest that it's the free market in action (a bit of a stretch if you ask me).

Having been on the active fringe of the Auckland property market for more than 45 years, I've not ever seen the property market in Auckland fall by more than 10%, if that. Look at the current set of drivers, an ever expanding population, an undersupply of some magnitude, Auckland taking on a 'world' status, albeit relatively minor, a strong economy, etc, etc and we have a formula for ongoing growth in value, not a decline of any note. As sad as it might be for intending home-buyers, this is the reality of the future.

The reality is that you've never experienced a global economy like this during the past 45 years.

A bit longer, 1929.

NZ house prices fell around 12% in real terms after 2008. I expect Auckland fell at a similar rate. People often forget to account for inflation.

Yes Ponzi, but after a bit of a surge of bright minds we seem to have ended up in the far canal.

As long as interest rates are down, house price won't go down. It may stabilize or go up.

Smart money now will be in the big four bank shares. Chances of someone paying off their mortgage in a short time are pretty slim.

Overseas is the way to go. We grew up in Auckland. Went to Grammar and St Cuths, Auckland Uni. Thought we would always return but now even more pathetic salaries and impossible to own low grade housing. Motorways that dissolve into residential streets, A joke of a train network. Has effectively become a nasty have and have nots asian city with no future. We have been 10 years in Aus now and will never return. Aussie kids on the way. However they will have to be on Kiwi passports until they are 10!

The rest of n.z is still ok.. worried it may not be for too much longer. But salaries esp for degree qualified need to rise or else the brain drain will continue and be replaced with immigrants who accept low standards and so compete away any standard of living as seen in Auckland, n.z's least livable city by far

Rather sad....

That's ambiguous ... could be taken two ways ... care to explain what you meant?