NZ has the highest rate of real house price inflation in the world

Property

NZ's house price inflation more than double that of the UK and US

8th Sep 16, 3:19pm by Greg Ninness

New Zealand has the second highest rate of house price inflation in the world, according to Knight Frank's Global House Price Index.

The Index compares the performance of residential property markets in 55 countries and ranked New Zealand as having the second highest rate of house price inflation at 11.2% in the year to June.

Only Turkey had higher house price inflation at 13.9% and the average of all 55 countries was 4%.

Eleven countries had negative house price inflation including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Brazil and Italy.

This country was well ahead of Australia which was ranked 16th with 6.8%, the UK which was 24th with 5.2% and the US which came in at 25th with 5.1%.

However when annual inflation is stripped out, giving real house price growth over and above the rate of inflation, this country goes straight to the top of the list with real annual housing price growth of 11%.

Knight Frank's head of Research for Asia Pacific, Nicholas Holt, said government policies were having a major impact on housing markets around the world.

"With the highest real price growth, New Zealand is set to see new lending restrictions introduced, while at the other end of the Index, cooling measures introduced over the past few years in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore continue to bite," he said.

"Taiwan especially is not just feeling the effects of the recent change in Capital Gains Tax, where a levy of up to 45% can be charged on residential disposals within six years, but also the impact of an economic slowdown and the recent presidential election."

Holt said the objectives of housing market regulations in countries where they had been introduced were largely the same: to address issues of affordability and discourage speculation and limit the amount of property-backed debt.

"It has been interesting to witness the different approaches in different countries," he said.

"With the lending restrictions in New Zealand already starting to be implemented, it is likely that some of the froth will be taken out of New Zealand's market over the coming quarters."

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210 Comments

by Gummy Bear Hero | 8th Sep 16, 3:29pm 1473305379

Woooo-hoooooooo ! ... we're ahead of the Yanks and the Poms ... and second best in the whole wide world ...

... dang , there's a silver medal right there , folks ... keep pushing harder guys , let's nudge those turkeys outta top spot , the gold is within our reach ... Gold everywhichway you look at it ... Sha-zam ...

Our little sky-rocketing house prices are beyond the magic $ million , onwards to infinity and beyond ... we're all gonna be rich , what could possibly go wrong !

by jerry_NZ | 8th Sep 16, 3:37pm 1473305864

Lets ban the overseas buyers and mortgages for investment properties.
and....lets tax multiple properties.

Then we will se the real picture.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 8:27am 1473366474

Why not ban the Government and its bureaucracies from their double dipping because that is what is causing the problems in supply and affordability.......Then we will see the real picture.

by Property king | 8th Sep 16, 3:41pm 1473306094

And....let's get envious of those who have worked hard and are making money while the lazy sit there moaning and want for something for nothing.

by frazz | 8th Sep 16, 3:44pm 1473306249

Some of the laziest people I have met are Property Investors? Funny that ....

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 8:34am 1473366842

As long as people like you frazz continue your rhetoric towards property investors then the supply and affordability issues will remain!! You are not interested in any resolution to the housing issues but rather prefer the market to keep going up!!

by mvgsmf | 8th Sep 16, 3:52pm 1473306762

@"Property king"... (guess the name should've been a warning)

Buying a house and sitting on it whilst rampant price inflation caused by QE, ZIRP and Open immigration increases the price whilst you do nothing - that is THE definition of "something for nothing"....

Get an idea, start a real business and employ people and then you can start talking about working hard and creating something in the real PRODUCTIVE economy.

Making money by speculating on property right now could be done by a chain smoking monkey wearing a Fez in a pedal car.....

And I own a business and rental property - the difference is I don't kid myself I'm a genius for making a small fortune from the property - with inflation EVERYONE has - hence why the gains are illusory!

Good grief..............

by ex socialist | 8th Sep 16, 4:05pm 1473307553

Actually getting rich on property is mostly an indicator of what part of the country you live in, not working hard.

And the fundamental problem is that while New Zealanders believe that you cant lose money on property it prevent investment in productive parts of the economy. The good thing about the property crash when it arrives will be that we reduce our fixation on housing.

by moa man | 8th Sep 16, 5:35pm 1473312923

But when the latest property bubble hits the fan, whom is going to pay?
Joe Taxpayer. Mr Deposit holder?
And that's the problem.
It's a sham.
Better to rob a bank.
It's more ethical.

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 8:37pm 1473323838

Be a bit of a disappointment when you get to the vault only to find all the money is just pretending stuff, eh? The stuff the banks just magic out of thin air.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 4:09pm 1473394180

No difference from your baseless assertions.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 9:09am 1473368980

This housing price issue is government and bureaucracy driven..........people who maybe growing their wealth from the idiot policy settings are not the problem - yes they might be benefiting by investing but they are not the cause of the price escalation.........look at all the legislation around housing that is why house and land prices have escalated........and what do most people suggest more damn legislation........there is a whole damn industry inside the industry clipping the ticket from houses..people who can't see these issues either have blinkers on or are downright thick!

If there was ever a major downward slide in house prices then I will be pointing my finger directly at every politician and bureaucrat as they are solely responsible for this off the scale mess.....I call it off the scale because I don't see productive business NZ being able to generate sufficient income for the flow through effect to pay down all this housing debt especially given the state of other economies around the world so somewhere along the line there is a high chance of a major economic struggle for NZers.. The issues we have are because we don't have a free market and people are too silly to know what a free market really is!!

It is high time ALL the politicians in Wellington got together and put their pathetic differences aside and throw out all the legislation that has anything to do with building......I am so angry that NZers are being held hostage by the pathetic RMA, Building Act, Local Government and as for GST it should be thrown completely out the door its nothing but a sneaky backdoor tax on labour and most people are again too stupid to see it for what it is........These politicians are full of guile and most of the people are falling for crap that is muttered.....so until people actually wake up then prices will keep going up.

Now you have made a statement that investment in housing is preventing investment in productive parts of the economy........so where and which productive parts of the economy are you talking about?

by EdV | 8th Sep 16, 4:23pm 1473308627

People moan because the price boom is out of control making houses unaffordable for the average kiwi (in Auckland at least). Not everyone has the means to invest in property (and this isn't always because they haven't worked hard), and those are the ones affected by the artificially inflated prices. The main issue here is that (and this is what people should be moaning about) is the government has done very little to curb the problem. But you can hardly blame investors for seizing the opportunity to take advantage of this given the license to print money that is the Auckland housing market.

by Kjeldorian | 9th Sep 16, 8:52am 1473367923

I work very hard, 55-65 hours a week and my house earns more money than I do...
Now that I own a house I could just sit there getting something for nothing.

by Country boy | 8th Sep 16, 3:43pm 1473306222

No surprises there - NZ has the higher population growth (due to immigration) and at the same time poor house building supply response. Need to build about 25,000 houses a year to keep up with the inflow. Never going to happen - so either Government acts to tighten immigration or we are all tenants in our own land. Go figure how stupid all this is.

by Crow22Darkness | 9th Sep 16, 2:55am 1473346522

40,000-50,000+ Kiwis moved to Australia annually over the last 15 years. Australia grew by total the population size of New Zealand over the last 13 years.

Yet 100,000+ people in Australia are homeless.

Many regions in New Zealand outside of Auckland are declining in population numbers & becoming ghost towns.

Tenants in your own land? That would have been something Maori tribes would have been thinking after 1840 when they were selling their tribal land to Pakeha.

Immigration should be better spread out equally across all of New Zealand not tightened.

More than 2500 Housing NZ houses are current sitting empty. A Auckland apartment block is currently empty needing a $22 million renovation.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 9:19am 1473369568

Country Boy why not burn all the legislation and have a free market?

by Biologist | 8th Sep 16, 3:55pm 1473306902

Could this percentage be skewed by the ratio of properties/people in Auckland compared to the rest of NZ? As compared to other countries where there might be one city with massive housing inflation (i.e. Vancouver/Canada) but there might be a larger overall proportion of people in other parts of the country?

by tired_immigrant | 8th Sep 16, 4:11pm 1473307892

Yes. One should compare cities to cities.

Before and after the global economic crisis, Singapore’s property market surged, and Singapore experienced an amazingly overheated market. The residential property price index rose 38.2% during the space of only one year to Q2 2010 (34% inflation-adjusted). 11% in a year isn't even a big deal. And this (i.e. Singapore's growth) is from an already high base.

by Property king | 8th Sep 16, 4:32pm 1473309137

It is never as easy as it looks. Only in the good times do comments like these come out from everyone, where were they in the bad times from 2008-2012? Nowhere to be found!

They should have had the guts to buy back then, but didn’t and now it seems to be every property investor in NZ’s fault. How about City Councils who are the real culprits? The left dominate councils throughout the country and look what has happened? I’ll keep voting them in as they contract supply year after year creating all sorts of supply problems. How about those people who decided to waste money on ‘stuff’ rather than take a risk/show some guts by buying a property back then? The truth is they didn’t and are paying for it, tough luck I say. If you are in Wellington and are moaning you have no excuse as prices were flat there for 8 years, it’s nobody’s fault but there’s!

by tired_immigrant | 8th Sep 16, 4:20pm 1473308410

Should wait for these same commentators to scream "BUY BUY BUY" when prices start falling as they wish. Or would the same people say "Don't buy prices will fall further"? When is a good time for these people to encourage buying? When property is free?

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 5:29pm 1473312595

hmm, yeah, free sounds good but.... i will give you 5 bucks each just to be fair.

by philthy | 8th Sep 16, 5:14pm 1473311671

Property king do you get your comments from the National party website?
If you don't think the government is culpable for this in a large way then you really are naive.
To name some of the things they are responsible for,
Stoking immigration to massive record levels.
Flatly refusing to do anything about record numbers of foreign buyers.
instigating clearly flawed data to try to hide the numbers buying from overseas, by trying to claim the 30% of them that are students and those on work visa's aren't actually foreigners.
Selling and bulldozing thousands of state houses and not replacing them all.
Refusing to do anything remotely meaningful to slow down investors such as a CGT.
Refusing to do anything about land bankers.
No doubt there's also other things they could've done but haven't.

by imhenry | 9th Sep 16, 6:50am 1473360653

Do you really think a Labour Gov would have done anything different. Look what happened on their watch Finance Co' etc.

by Didge | 9th Sep 16, 8:25am 1473366331

At Property King's comment above. It is correctly theirs and without the apostrophe, not there's. Someone did not work hard in school.

by keyo_ | 9th Sep 16, 12:53pm 1473382383

> where were they in the bad times from 2008-2012 ?

I was in university you troll and I don't have rich parents to buy me a house like so many Nats do.

by rp | 8th Sep 16, 4:18pm 1473308327

says to me we have the worst govt in the world

by tired_immigrant | 8th Sep 16, 4:21pm 1473308461

What an insult to the North Koreans...

by nymad | 8th Sep 16, 4:26pm 1473308790

Don't forget the Syrians..

by rp | 8th Sep 16, 4:29pm 1473308989

least they can afford a house

by tired_immigrant | 8th Sep 16, 6:22pm 1473315734

If the Syrian government has restrictions on foreign ownership, will you be complaining? Are you going to buy?

by rp | 8th Sep 16, 6:38pm 1473316719

oh come on tired immigrant, don't troll me

by Uninformed Hillbilly | 8th Sep 16, 9:45pm 1473327914

But no central bank . Maybe that is why the money men want him dead!?

by Crow22Darkness | 9th Sep 16, 3:10am 1473347442

Whats the point of affording a house in Syria when it gets eventually bombed in a current civil war?

by Northland Hippy | 9th Sep 16, 5:54am 1473357274

It doesn't pay to Get in the way of US imperialism.

by Crow22Darkness | 9th Sep 16, 3:07am 1473347251

Not even close. Such a huge insult to people living in countries under actual authoritarian regimes. Go live under the Governments in Saudi Arabia,Most African countries,North Korea,Cuba or Iran.

New Zealand has one of the best governments in the world in comparison to people living under governments in developing countries.

by Plutocracy | 9th Sep 16, 6:55am 1473360920

Haha, you are a shill. There's a massive disconnect between comments like this and how pissed off some of the younger generation are becoming with things. We're heading for a massive social train wreck because of this asset bubble.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:08am 1473368910

Seriously. Travel.

by Ngrrk | 9th Sep 16, 4:33pm 1473395606

Seriously, I have...a lot and what plutocracy is saying rings utterly true

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 9:35am 1473370516

Crow 22darkness........We don't have AK47's pointing at us, nor are we thrown in jail at will and NZ might seem pleasant enough but we are slowly slipping into an oppressive regime......it might not happen over night but I can attest to the fact that the last 30 odd years have been ones of slowly bringing about withdrawal of constitutional rights.........we have had small gains and large losses.........none of us should ever sit on our haunches and believe that nothing needs to be done to ensure the maintenance of our rights.

There are thousands of boxes, forms to be filled and money to be collected or paid to keep the NZ authorities off one's door..........we never used to have this hideous regime in NZ!!

by Su30 | 8th Sep 16, 4:32pm 1473309153

Second is the first looser. We gotta try harder folks.

by Averageman | 8th Sep 16, 4:36pm 1473309378

Quote of the year

"Making money by speculating on property right now could be done by a chain smoking monkey wearing a Fez in a pedal car....."

by Property king | 8th Sep 16, 4:37pm 1473309471

If it is so easy then why are you not doing it?

by Averageman | 8th Sep 16, 4:57pm 1473310637

Sigh. Actually I have several properties as part of a range of investments and several businesses that employ real people and pay real wages, and real tax. This is a conscious alternative to behaving like the proverbial debt junkie Fez wearing monkey repeatedly self-injecting debt with no thought for the cost to his/her fellow man or the New Zealand economy. I for one care about my staffs ability to actually get into their first house, and the challenges that my children will have to do the same.

I’m focusing on killing off debt, and hoping that the next election brings about an almighty correction by slamming the door on investor tax offset (with backdating), makes capital gains taxable on all investment property (with backdating), and correctly classifies and taxes overseas property purchasing into oblivion. I would happily take a 50% plus drop in property prices to support my staff and children, and help protect the NZ way of life. How about you?

by Crazy Horse | 8th Sep 16, 5:50pm 1473313852

Averageman .... great comment ! I wish there were more like minded souls, such as your good self around.

The ABSOLUTE GREED that permeates the Auckland (and now most of the country) market makes me wish the whole residential property "scene" which just implode on itself !

What gets up my nose, is that I am all for the 'free market' as all these PI's go on about ! , but when the likes of the taxpayer has to prop up rents through the accommodation supplement, that is not a free market !!

I always think of all that money that is wasted, going on mortgages and rents and how, for the good of both the whole economy ....and the individual, that money could be way better spent on innovation, start up co's, new businesses etc etc etc

Like you I have "other" investments than Auckland residential property - in fact I sold my Auckland property in March this year - out of the market now, as I think the prices are so ridiculous !! ....and my theory is the higher they go, the bigger they willl fall !!

I hope in an altruistic way, that prices just taper off and stay stable for a while then ease off a bit ..... we shall see....

by tired_immigrant | 8th Sep 16, 6:24pm 1473315859

Please leave your contact details. Will be in touch to buy up your houses at the 50% discount NOW so that the average prices in your area can fall as you wish. If you are not willing to sell at those prices, why not?

by Averageman | 8th Sep 16, 7:32pm 1473319963

That comment underlines why the tax treatment has to change. Leave yours, when banks forces you to sell as your paper equity vanishes, its more likely my equity and income will buy yours.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:15am 1473369342

I am not the one calling for a 50% drop or wishing for such a drop. The altruistic guy above is so I am here to help. Leave your contact though. Will be in touch too if you are in the same altruistic boat. There are many here who I assume don't comment but are happy to help the rest achieve the dreams of 50% price falls. Think about it: if enough people sell at a discount, the prices WILL fall. Let's start right here instead of constantly whinging and moaning. In short: put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise, most of you here sound like a hypocrite when you constantly point out about how houses are unaffordable, how younger generations are being priced out, how the Chinese are taking over, how you wish prices will fall YET do nothing other than hashtag #JKEXIT (or in fact be the first to sell to these high bidders). #SELLATADISCOUNTTODAY.

by CJ099 | 8th Sep 16, 9:12pm 1473325960

See what you don't seem to realise so called tired immigrant, is that these massive property prices are killing the rest of our economy. High house prices do not allow companies to grow as they can't attract staff to live in expensive areas. Also it's killing our export market with the stupidly high NZD that has been pushed up by high property prices. This will also have a negative impact on tourism as it will cost a lot more for a holiday here.

The whole thing is a false economy! Don't you get it!!!

by Averageman | 9th Sep 16, 7:40am 1473363627

X2. Propertys tax treatment has sponsored a massive over investment in that sector. I was amazed when it was all but overlooked last election. Im personally backing that it wont escape scrutiny in 2017. Investment reality needs to return to property. Interest only, less return than money in the bank just to get a tax free gain, and a sligbt offset on income tax...needs fixing.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:20am 1473369612

There's no necessary connection between low housing prices and higher productivity (which will lead to higher wages). Are you guys saying that if housing prices collapse 50%, there will be an increase in wages? Why cut your nose to spite your face? Deal with the supply problem. Deal with increasing productivity so that wages can go up and houses become less expensive relatively. Or are these too difficult problems to solve? Housing prices falling 50% help nobody.

by Carlos67 | 9th Sep 16, 4:44pm 1473396240

Got any jobs going Averageman ? I thought every boss in this country was an a$$hole until I read this !

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 7:11pm 1473318696

Probably hampered by a conscience
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/conscience

by Yvil | 9th Sep 16, 1:41pm 1473385266

If it is so easy then why are you not doing it?

by Hardworker-doe… | 8th Sep 16, 4:37pm 1473309426

Haha, oh jaysus it's quite funny now.

Serious question. Would a campaign with some innovative ideas to get the young and disenfranchised to get out and vote next year be something worth considering? Not affiliated with any party, just a push for people to really exercise their right to vote.

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 5:36pm 1473312994

Are the young voters in big enough numbers to make a difference? I would like to see them take an interest that is for sure. I would like to see a NZ Youth Party quite frankly.

by rp | 8th Sep 16, 6:42pm 1473316966

they are a pretty big block justice, just less likely to vote under ordinary circumstances

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 6:55pm 1473317735

And what if true is the underlying reason for that? general youth apathy? or the distinct feeling they feel they don't actually matter so why bother?

We seriously need some new forward thinking outside the box types. Youth are open to more experimentation on all matters as they have yet to form ingrained behavior and attitudes that WE all end up fighting against in older adult populations that just wish to protect their patch. hint hint

by Hardworker-doe… | 8th Sep 16, 7:19pm 1473319186

I'm seriously thinking about trying to do something to start some sort of movement. I have no idea how it would work or if I could even pull it off but my god something/someone needs to shout a bit louder.

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 8:25pm 1473323135

In NZ I think we leave that until week of the next election don't we? Maybe that is the major problem. NZ conservatism? We seem to hate making a fuss even when being trampled over!

by CJ099 | 8th Sep 16, 9:22pm 1473326543

We have to stop being sheep and start to have some guts like the Canadians. The Vancouver foreign buyer tax has really highlighted just how much impact and control overseas investors can have our a cities housing market. Time to take steps to put an end to this madness.

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 9:29pm 1473326999

100% agree

by Hardworker-doe… | 8th Sep 16, 11:21pm 1473333691

What if I make a start and create an online form to collate ideas (and I'm sure a few trolls) from people wiling to contribute. Ideas on how we move the young to vote. Ideas to maybe help shift a bit of this apathy? I can put them together and start talking to some bigger guns. I'm not very politically minded or indeed that intelligent but I can build pretty good strong relationships with the right people. Maybe then we could have a chance at increasing the vote from the generations coming up? My future is f*cked but I'll be damned if I sit but and watch my friend's kids futures be f*cked too. I really feel like this has to be done.

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 7:13pm 1473318833

Trouble is, too many of them that do get involved are just little mini-me's of what went before - like the current member for Southland

by Hardworker-doe… | 9th Sep 16, 2:16pm 1473387411

This might be the closest we've got for now and she is in Auckland but she definitely has my vote https://www.facebook.com/chloeswarbrickforAKL/

by sadr001 | 8th Sep 16, 11:19pm 1473333597

I was born in the 90s and make sure to vote and campaign that my mates vote too. The problem is too many old people trying to blame anything they can on National despite their significantly more prudent fiscal management than any NZ government prior during a time of global recession.
I'd vote for a more right wing party if a decent one existed but in the absence of that, National will have to do. I have considered establishing a party to represent the interest of other young people such as myself though.
We'd probably run on reducing taxes and dole to encourage productivity.

by Brendon | 8th Sep 16, 11:35pm 1473334527

And what is your proposed housing affordability policy Sadr001?

Will giving less money to those who cannot find work and lowering taxes fix the dysfunctional housing market which everyone else is trying to solve on this thread? Please explain.

by Northland Hippy | 9th Sep 16, 6:06am 1473358014

and that is why young people don't tend to vote. They don't have the life experience to have any commitment that they understand what they are voting for.

by sharetrader | 9th Sep 16, 8:06am 1473365182

young people live in the now and think about themselves first, I'm sure as they age and are able to look back at different times with experience and the effects that certain government policies have made to our economies their view will change
I have a lot of young Jk disciples tell me how NZ is in a wonderful place, when I question what he has done they start repeating his spin so shows me how naïve they are
guess it takes awhile to learn a politicians first motive is to get into power, second is to stay there and third to implement their policies. and the first two overrule number three at all times
that is why most get thrown out of power as people normally want something done to fix certain issues and the incumbent is unwilling to address it

by sadr001 | 9th Sep 16, 11:12am 1473376339

I reckon that most in my generation who want to(and have put any significant amount of effort into it), already own real estate. It should be noted that owning residential real estate to live in is a horrible investment, it is far better (fiscally) to rent. My portfolio of residential real estate constitutes an investment because I perceived that the relative value of real estate to New Zealand dollar would shift such that the former would appreciate substantially relative to the latter. Admittedly My first property purchase was in 2012 and my most recent was in 2014 (with no help from my parents).

It should be apparent from my comment above that I don't actually perceive that there is a problem with our housing market. It is all about supply and demand if you don't want to buy at today's prices then don't. What you'll probably find is that the majority of those looking to buy but "unable" to afford homes have set themselves unrealistic expectations for their first home and are not fiscally prudent to boot.

If you try to twist the free market with regulation you'll almost certainly find that it comes back to bite in the most unexpected of ways.

As for those unable to find work, perhaps if we abolished the minimum wage automation of jobs would be less attractive and we could employ more people.

by Eco Bird | 9th Sep 16, 11:43pm 1473421405

Sadr001, it is so refreshing to have young people like yourself joining this debate as an example of our young generation who know how to use their brains and are aware of the environment and the times they are living in ...
Please do not be discouraged to sound of , this jungle is full of innocent, naive, and misguided people .. some don't have any clue about the consequences of their own words.

by Smalltown | 9th Sep 16, 9:13am 1473369215

You're taking it Sad.

Nats entered govt with a 10 bn debt. That is now 100bn. Thats 100,000,000,000.
They reduced taxes for their rich mates and gutted the Super Fund and Kiwisaver.
Not much prudency there. Just an urban legend and a lot of BS.

by Kate | 9th Sep 16, 9:42am 1473370968

The rise in debt has been substantial during their "reign" but not sure where you get those numbers. Here's the chart;

http://www.interest.co.nz/Charts/Government/government-debt

by Smalltown | 9th Sep 16, 9:54am 1473371685

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/financialstatements/yearend/jun1…

by Kate | 9th Sep 16, 10:09am 1473372551

But that states that core Crown net debt has increased from $20b in 2009 to $60b presently. Three-fold - not ten fold as you have stated.

by Smalltown | 9th Sep 16, 4:19pm 1473394755

"Other Borrowings - 40BN"

by Smalltown | 10th Sep 16, 1:01am 1473426085

by Smalltown | 10th Sep 16, 1:00am 1473426047

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 10:01am 1473372061

That's incorrect Smalltown......Debt was going to blow out under labour as well due to the GFC........this topic has been well discussed on interest.co.nz already!

And then the Earthquakes hit which have blown any budgets completely out of the water.

by Kate | 9th Sep 16, 10:17am 1473373044

Likely only half of the problem/reasons. They definitely have mishandled revenue whilst borrowing to make up the deficits to keep a ponzi status quo economy going. There has been no economic transformation under National but there has been a social transformation.

by sadr001 | 9th Sep 16, 11:16am 1473376589

You need to look at performance of the government relative to other governments of the time. Labor didn't increase our reserves by nearly enough given the boom we were in. National has made us one of the strongest and most stable economies in the world in the current environment of global economic turmoil.

Additionally look at the policies that labor proposed and the realistic cost of those and run them against what national has done to determine the position we would be in had we had a Labor government over the same period.

It should also be noted that I am a big fan of debt, debt is an amazing tool that allows people to take advantage of economic opportunities that they wouldn't otherwise have access to.

by Kate | 9th Sep 16, 11:39am 1473377976

What boom under Labour? Boom in house prices which translated to increased economic activity as folks put the reno and the holiday on the house. The economic gutting of the middle classes was well underway under Labour - witness the reason they brought in WFF and accommodation supplements - i.e., to supplement the eroding middle class lifestyle and keep the majority of our young, struggling families afloat.

No boom under Labour, less boom under National if you take away the ponzi that is increased immigration, sale of assets to foreign ownership and house price inflation. The only difference between the economic management of the two regimes is that Key's cut taxes and took in LESS revenue. It completely failed to create the economic stimulus they alleged. They both worshipped false gods.

by sharetrader | 9th Sep 16, 12:02pm 1473379331

well said kate, some us see this others are blind to it but they will feel the consequences in years to come

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 1:01pm 1473382912

I think it is incorrect to say there has been a gutting of the middle classes.........if one looks closely most of the middle class are living in larger homes, travel and holiday more frequently, drive new cars and have two cars per household, they often own a second home..........from where I am sitting these people also enjoy going to many major sporting events both in NZ and around the world, they also attend the plethora of other events, shows etc........these are not the actions of a gutted middle class.

NZ needs to direct new effort into the people below the middle class........the funding and assistance packages aren't working.........What is wrong in NZ is that we have far too many armchair critics - never started or run a business types advocating they know what's best for the economic management of NZ............no one would work in a government department if they could have their own successful business........yet many with the left-wing mentality expect these people to know how to fix the problem when these workers suffer from the same problems as those who are falling between the cracks.

It is not a governments job to create economic stimulus it is a governments role to ensure the constitutional rights of the people are upheld........economic stimulus is nothing more than a meddlesome activity that interferes with the free market..........and guess which group of people get affected the worse from this interference???? Poverty exists because there is insufficient freedom!!

If you want a boom in economic activity then government and bureaucracies have to be removed from their current interference roles.......and that means a huge shift by those with left-wind views......

by Kate | 9th Sep 16, 11:06pm 1473419204

no one would work in a government department if they could have their own successful business

I had to laugh. I would - and did! :-).

Wellington's median income is the highest in the country (by a significant amount) pure and simply because it is the seat of government and that's (by far) where the easy money is - aside from tax free property gains, that is.

I've done both. Far more stress to pocket the same kind of dollars in owning my own business (one that employed other staff, that is). Less stress of course in sole trader-type consultancy work.

by fat pat | 8th Sep 16, 4:37pm 1473309445

The government will sprinkle rose petals at the feet of overseas investors with John Key gently wooing them with wealthy migrant visas so that they can buy all the real estate they want. Meanwhile millennials and Gen X and Y have been bound and gagged are on their knees. The Kiwis have had no wage increases for years while real inflation is through the roof. Rent and capital gains are like bone marrow, and they’re being extracted from the Kiwis with vigour. Now that the young Kiwis are on their knees they’re about to get smashed in the face with a baseball bat with LVR wealth transfer written all over it. Thanks National.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 10:10am 1473372613

I would have thought the rose petals have been sprinkled for NZ'ers......how many in the low and middle to low income tax brackets actually pay taxes because I thought they got most of what they paid back in some form of handout............NZers have two options either get handouts or stand on their own two feet.........doing the latter keeps government and its bureaucracies out of the way and reduces government spending thereby reducing the sheer size of the bureaucracies.........the old saying "you can't have your cake and eat it too" comes to mind..........

by Eco Bird | 10th Sep 16, 12:07am 1473422844

Slow down far pat ... all the above is not true ... and it is really insulting to anyones intelligence ... the immigration money has made it possible to borrow less, pay for the losers which refuse to work, pay for the countries ever demanding outgoings when some moaning and waiting for their CEO salary jobs to arrive in the post ...
No one is bound and gagged or on their knees, if there are some then they deserve to be whipped and woken up .. there are plenty of these generations' young people who are in great jobs and on a great future path ... talk about yourself and do not include the generations ....

everyone had wage increase for years and tax cuts and all, even the ones with kids are being helped more than others ( so WFF is bad now?) ..even the ones on the dole have a pay rise !!....

Rent and capital gain are like bone marrow for everyone and they are being INJECTED in kiwis not extracted from them !! but only the smart ones know how to process it, those who know the difference between bone marrow and Ketchup!!

Get up off your knees and ask outside your circle of friends, maybe someone will show you how to avoid the baseball bat ....

by Su30 | 10th Sep 16, 12:27am 1473424043

Thank you Eco Bird for spelling this out

'talk about yourself and do not include the generations'.

by fat pat | 10th Sep 16, 12:55am 1473425724

I pretty much disagree with everything you say eco bird

I don’t subscribe to your small government right wing libertarian viewpoint. I actually think that’s insulting to anyone’s intelligence. I think of myself as more liberal progressive politically and economically. That’s why I always go on about Steve Keen because he makes sense in that regard.

The immigration money, as you put it, has provided a great boost to GDP yes. But as with everything the National party does it’s been in a totally regressive in nature. Already wealthy landed gentry / baby boomers have been made supremely dynastically wealthy at the expense of non property owners. Egalitarianism has died under nationals watch.

Tax cuts are regressive, Period! the.y redistribute wealth to the upper echelons of society
.
WFF is just keeping the lower middle classe afloat. The poor have been ground into the dirt with rent increases and massive increases in the price of tobacco. Say what you want about that but it’s a complicated social issue.

When I talk about the baseball bat smack in the face I’m thinking of my friends who are mostly upper middle class. By the way I made over 300K of capital gain last year. I’m a gen X and I’m really angry with what’s happened to this country. I’m taking my money and I’m emigrating to Germany in a few weeks time!

by Eco Bird | 10th Sep 16, 1:53pm 1473472401

Great News ... close the door behind you ... and Good Luck !!
Oh, if you find that Germany has the same system , you might like to try North Korea for a change !! everyone is perfectly equal there !!

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 5:01pm 1473310913

this is the report if you are interested Q2-2016
https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/84/documents/en/q2-201…

But wait, we have at least been consistent at ~ 11% last year too BUT were in 5th place ... look where hong kong was @ 20.7% last year !!
https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/84/documents/en/q2-201…

I guess that this is the price of prosperity ... just look at the first 25 in both years

by Basel Brush III | 8th Sep 16, 4:38pm 1473309501

This is a World Beating KEY achievement for NZ!!!!
Perhaps John and Jude could go for the world prize in imprisonment. We are already close enough to challenge.

by philthy | 8th Sep 16, 7:21pm 1473319282

Either that or racking up government debt to our highest ever levels, and at our fastest rate.
Don't expect mainstream media to criticize them though.

by Northland Hippy | 9th Sep 16, 6:15am 1473358521

We evidently need lots of new prison staff. Its our growth industry, we're going to recruit them from overseas.
Can't possibly train our own people.
200 more immigrants with their families while kiwis are unemployed,

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 6:46am 1473360370

I think I'd prefer if we began to deal with the problems that see people banged up in prison in the first place. The way its headed it's only going to get worse.

by Sluggy | 9th Sep 16, 1:15pm 1473383720

Totally agree, Im really surprised the media hasn't managed to put 2 and 2 together, increases in burglary, general public dissent. Criminals are starting to target particular races because they see that race as the reason they are in the situation they are in. In response migrants form political parties. The government denies, denies, strokes ponytails, denies, denies.

by Kakapo | 9th Sep 16, 7:32am 1473363151

Let's recruit them from nations with endemic corruption. That'll work out well.

And meanwhile, for the young New Zealanders just starting out, and being systematically excluded from employment, there are opportunities for them in the growth areas of burglaries, drug production and distribution (no, wait, they're being cut out of that industry too), aggravated robberies and carjackings.

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 4:46pm 1473310015

Oh well , let's bring Aunty Helen back then, she sounds like she will be unemployed soon .. She'd better come back and lift Labour's game instead of the moaning clowns they have at present in Parliament ....

by reena | 8th Sep 16, 5:18pm 1473311880

Many People are supporting John Key. We too were not against John Key (infact voted for him and now I wonder Why) but cannot stand his policy of denial and lies. People only manipulate and lie when they are at wrong and want to hide their true ulterior motives. Can any Chon Kee Supporter answer that if he is correct why is manipulating the overseas buyer data and giving rise to speculation. Instead if Correct and no hidden agenda he should come out with the correct overseas data and put in in public domain. Whether to act on it or not on that data, is his choice and we can agree or disagree but being PM it is his call BUT why manipulate and lie. No One Like Manipulators and liars. Only people who have vested interest and are gaining out of his manipulation and lie will like and support. May be I am wrong and they are correct and my perception is wrong and in politics perception is important so why not clear it one way or the other. Why be afraid.

by Donker | 8th Sep 16, 5:30pm 1473312643

Yes a lot of people voted without seeing their true colours......National are not leading the country they are trying to keep the peace......not rock the boat, pretend it all good etc......it all about JK's marketing ploy......don't mention a crisis.......deny, deny, deny..........Spin........blame Helen for stuff 10 years ago.......Smile.......Laugh.......look healthy......smile.....it's all good NZ........think positive it will all be sweet

by nzakl | 8th Sep 16, 7:30pm 1473319841

Reena good point. Some experts should read your comment and take it up that if JOHN KEYis correct why is he manipulating the data. Very Valid reasoning.

Hope to see an expert view and article questioning government.

by Sluggy | 9th Sep 16, 1:19pm 1473383981

He is just trying to keep the implosion/explosion from happening before the next election. Its completely and utterly self serving. People like him are the reason I wont work for a corporate, he is about as far from a true Kiwi as I have ever seen.

by sadr001 | 9th Sep 16, 1:33pm 1473384808

Why not vote him in again and make him deal with the implosion/explosion during his next term? It would be unfair to make a different government deal with it.

by Eco Bird | 10th Sep 16, 12:18am 1473423513

indeed... , I want Nick smith to burst the property bubble and he is doing a good job at inflating the unsustainable housing market! .. so let him finish the job and everyone will be able to buy that $1M house for 1/2 the price ..why wreck a good job !! and bring in Phil who will certainly mess the whole thing up ..

I want the immigration minister in place too .. so he can make these ***s pay through their nose for coming and investing in NZ ...

by Donker | 8th Sep 16, 5:48pm 1473313727

Nick Smith you are the million dollar minister..........the million dollar Man!

Nick Smith - We want to get housing inflation to singe digits........9% ???

by JB | 8th Sep 16, 5:22pm 1473312143

The best thing about buying each other's houses is that it requires no education - Everyone can play and we can all be winners ! No need for STEM investment.

No bank ever asked your IQ in a mortgage application. Just keep pushing it out guys.

We truly have discovered a unique strategy for wealth creation.

Onwards and forever upwards.

A testament to our # 8 wire mentality. The great NZ ability to make do with just what you have. Of course we all know how this will end when the music stops as it will one day but meanwhile Party Party Party !

We must be the smartest people on the planet.

by Donker | 8th Sep 16, 6:10pm 1473315015

I don't want to pick up the National Party's empty champagne bottles

by MikeM | 8th Sep 16, 9:09pm 1473325781

The most worrying aspect is the ever increasing leverage that is essential to keep our favourite hobby going.

by bloodymigrant | 8th Sep 16, 5:41pm 1473313308

It's still moderate and justifiable. House prices has gone up all around the world not only in New Zealand. Compare with Canada and Australia.

by Roy1 | 8th Sep 16, 5:59pm 1473314359

Yeah but they have realised and introduced tax on foreign buyer. When will our PM come out of denial mode as that will save him also fron lying.

Shame

by nzakl | 8th Sep 16, 5:52pm 1473313964

John Key has ruined the social fabric of newzealand though many be millioner but still not the society that NZ was proud of.

Made everyone speculators and money minded. Corrupation at all level. Social tension will rise in future. Courtsey John Key.

Reena is correct. Can any Jhon Key supporter or any of the experts answer if John Key is correct and has no hidden agena or understanding with Chinese WHY does he is not place the correct overseas data ( not his manipulative version) in public domain.

Everyone hate lie and manipualtion and they in their egoistic arrogance do not realise that they stand EXPOSED.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 9:52am 1473371562

In John Keys defense he does need the numbers in parliament to change laws!! How about the opposition parties supporting the RMA changes.....Peter Dunne is a waste of space when he refuses to support Key.

by Eco Bird | 10th Sep 16, 1:43am 1473428613

Why doesn't anyone else publish the correct O/seas data ?? is the PM the only man in town??

I guess no one knows for certain what the correct numbers are ... and everyone is picking his own numbers in his own definitions as he pleases ... AND some of the data proved to be incomplete or ill captured ... JK put out his own definitions and numbers, others did the same .... but here is the rub:

What does it really matter ?? If they are students aliens or monkeys?? who cares if they are 1%, 3%, 6% or 26% ... We don't need anyone to tell us that the new arrivals and net migration in the country be it expats, chinese, indians, euros, whatever, had a big impact on a poorly stocked housing market with not enough surplus to accommodate all the ones who came in in such relatively big numbers ....just like we don't need any body to tell us that our predominantly (Left) ACC was asleep at the wheel all these years ...and some of this problem is due to their short comings.

On the surface, The National Government should have done more in exercising its power to dampen the problem 12-18 months ago - and they didn't ... we know that too !..... And we don't know why !! and no one can claim they know Why they didn't do it !!

It is not easy to stir a big ship while you are tangled with local governments , Agencies, DTAs, Laws, and many other national and international factors affecting the decision making process .... this is not a rugby game which you can fire the coach when you lose a test ! .... But, I guess we are all expecting the Gov to come clean on this issue and tell us why and where they went wrong with this ...

The people who are making this a one man crusade are dubious ... because that is what the Labour party is blindly doing and calling for .... Rising house prices is NOT the end of the world !! just like they have risen in few years by both internal and external factors they can also be corrected in time .. Rising house prices has made a lot of property owners very happy ... claims to the contrary is BS - even if it was in a poll !!!

IMHO, Labour and the Left are doing National a big favour by continuing this smear campaign about the housing issue and personal mud slinging... for many reasons & too complicated to list here ... but , this issue is being blown out of its proportion purely for election purposes and gathering around it all sorts of financially illiterate people just repeating out things they do not really understand and bringing in stupid conspiracy theories !! some even think that the next gov would solve their problems !! ....

No one wants that !! Just like no one wants stupid idiots to start talking about revolutions, crimes and all that kind of nonsense !!

This asset class (residential housing) is a PROBLEM all around the world .. even in places out of the reach of National and JK !! ... and real estate has become a strong magnet pulling all of the QE paper that has been printed and investments .... read the G20 recommendations ... All countries governments are required to get on with fiscal policies to help monetary policies to work ... (RBs they will be running out of options soon) ... and to get businesses to borrow and invest more !!! and employ more ... and increase wages and close the inequality gap !! .. Hello !! that sounds like us too !!

If the majority of the people feel that they need to change the Gov over this issue, then it will be done - we have fair elections coming up in 12 months and enough time to mince the important issues and take stock of it all .... however, mudding the House Price issue and slinging all sorts of rubbish around and dragging taxes, and rates and all sorts of idiocy in it is not going to do anyone any favours.

We owe it to ourselves to bring into office the best Party who can drive NZ forward in these particular times , those who have better plans and clear visions should win .... and we can then all move on !! and hold them accountable for their promises...!

We also owe it to ourselves to help by having a respectful and constructive debate on these serious issues and bring in and encourage the experts to participate instead of turning these forums into inflammatory discussions or school fights and parliament-type useless rants .... I hope that everyone knows the difference between a civilised debate and a kindergarten or a bar argument !! We will all benefit from that ...

by Camel's back | 8th Sep 16, 5:57pm 1473314225

To be second on this House Price index is proof we have been badly managed. We need better training, better jobs, innovative manufacturing, more processing of our raw resources.... the internet is still in its infancy, we should be number 2 in program development... The government is doing a poor job in my opinion, sack the lot of them.. Nation of landlords indeed.

by philthy | 8th Sep 16, 7:33pm 1473320016

The second most badly managed economy in the world, or maybe not managed is a better description of it, well done John.

by bloodymigrant | 8th Sep 16, 6:08pm 1473314910

Every one is blaming government, but any one has looked at this?
1.Council takes longer time to process application.
2. Council has added tax 6%+GST on subdivision as per the market value of land.
3.Metrowater charges $15000 for new connection which was $2000 few years back.
4.Vector charges $9,000 to 15,000 for new connection.
5.Chorus charges $1000 to $2500 for new connection.
6.No builders or trade persons are available.
I don't know how the house price will drop if all these things are going on??

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 6:24pm 1473315899

None of that adds up to a drop in the bucket of Auckland house prices. Government could make one big change tomorrow and that is to deal with foreign buyers. They and migrant money are the biggest drivers of prices way beyond the ability of kiwi earnings to buy, it is the only thing that makes any sense.
While we will always have immigration and should, we do not need a completely open door policy and as for foreigners buying houses here, we absolutely do not need that and never have. Should have been dealt with years ago.
And in case you didn't see this the other day as I forgot to add it to a comment about the change to investor category for prospective immigrants to include residential property that you were sceptical about
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/business-migration-hits-562m-%E2%80…
You need to read the very last bullet point for it to become clear, this is legislation from 2011 btw

by fat pat | 8th Sep 16, 9:10pm 1473325824

From the link PocketAces provided...

Residential property is to be included as an acceptable investment. Safeguards are required so that residential property investments create economic growth and increase the total housing stock available to New Zealand!

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 9:23pm 1473326626

Being as there is NO barrier to foreigners buying property here, those are pretty hollow words

by fat pat | 8th Sep 16, 9:48pm 1473328124

yep

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:28am 1473370091

nice echo chamber of lies. Read my reply below. I am dying to be corrected and wrong about this.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:27am 1473370023

You are pathetic. You keep raising the same WRONG point about residential property which I REPEATEDLY address and you fail to reply. At this point, I can only conclude you are extremely dishonest. Point to me EXACTLY which part of the Immigration NZ website states that you can buy residential property to stay in and then obtain a visa as you repeatedly claim? Oh there's none? Don't let facts get in the way of your pathetic lies.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tool…

Residential property development

We'll consider a residential property development is an acceptable investment if it meets all of the following criteria:

it's a new development, and not a renovation or extension to an existing residential property
the development has the necessary approvals and consents
the purpose of the development is to make a commercial return on the open market - it must not be for you, your family or friends to live in.
You can't include the costs of any regulatory approvals or consents in your investment funds.

by keyo_ | 9th Sep 16, 1:24pm 1473384294

And NZI would *never* bend the rules like the Australian FIRB would? Even if the rules are followed a cheap house can be built on lots of expensive LAND and that would count as an investment. Maybe we need to try out a 70-year lease system for foreigners.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 2:01pm 1473386466

Would that constitute a commercial return?

Whether NZI bending the rules is an entirely different question. You might as well say that no statistics or official policy/legislation should be trusted because someone somewhere will bend the rules somehow. Is that the point PocketAces (who is noticeably silent despite sprouting the same lie across various articles) is making? If yes, say it and support it with evidence. If not, it's hard to take any argument seriously.

Again, don't let facts stand in the way of lies, fiction and anecdotal evidence. There seems to be a pattern here with some commentators: (1) "show me the facts!!" (2) after the facts contradict the assertion, "the numbers are misleading!!" or "have you heard of XXX?" and/or "#JKEXIT". Get real, grow up.

by Lemon Tree | 11th Sep 16, 7:46am 1473536769

Be calm Tired Immigrant. One cannot argue against emotions and the need to blame a person or persons using facts and logic.

by PocketAces | 11th Sep 16, 8:21am 1473538891

The bloody facts are that people are being increasingly shut out of owning homes, and for many shut out of renting, that is a FACT, and the tired one trying to hi-jack the meaning of the word "homeless" changes nothing. Not having a home for your kids is a pretty bloody emotional situation. Get over it. Facts and figures do NOT alleviate that!!

by nzakl | 8th Sep 16, 7:06pm 1473318403

Government says no silver bullet. Here is golden bullet bloodymigrant, Tax on foreign buyer like Vancouver. Chon Kee too knows thats why manipulating and putting emphasis only on supply. Supply is important but by in itself is no good and Chon Kee and his gang is bluffing peopke of newzealand and are able to and get away as NZ has no creditable independent media. It is a sorry state but is true.

by Smalltown | 9th Sep 16, 1:42am 1473342175

They are all supply issues BM, any comments on demand issues?

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 6:09pm 1473314976

One thing I know and it is in the stats somewhere that house prices in Auckland central and the North Shore has been increasing by an average of 10% year on year for the last 40 years ... some real estate agents who have been then longer will tel you more than 50 years .... so for these areas it is business as usual .
However, house prices have very sharply increased in South $ West Auckland .... they have almost doubled if not more in the last 3 years ... It has been a tough catch up as these areas looked very cheap 3-4 years ago ... Waiuku and Pukekohe has been steadily increasing too for few years .... So I guess this stat is not as bad as it sounds - I guess the rush just came too sudden and too soon and took everyone by surprise like todays storm and blizzard !!

by sharetrader | 8th Sep 16, 6:59pm 1473317960

you mean this one that shows the decreases as well, oops let the secret out NZ property does drop in times of world events
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/Public%20HP…

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 7:25pm 1473319507

I did say 10% on average year on year ...over 40 +years mate .... that is not so difficult !!
of course it goes up and down , but we all know for fact is that they double in price every 8 - 10 years depending on the location ( closer to the Central goes higher and faster)

so here is something that is much clearer than your graph and we can all understand:
http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz2
it is for 20 years or so only but select A for auckland and you will get the picture

BTW your chart shows that that Annual percentage change moved up only about 15% since 2012 ... i.e. in the last 4 years ..Go Figure!

by Brendon | 8th Sep 16, 8:07pm 1473322022

The problem with house prices doubling every 10 years is that it is taking 30 years for wages to double.

So in thirty years time someone born today who is looking to buy an average house with an average salary, might be earning something like $100,000 (2x) while the houses he is looking at will cost $8,000,000 (2x2x2).

Thirty years after that, his son might be looking at a salary of $200,000 (2x) and house prices of $64,000,000 (2x2x2).

Obviously if this really happened it would be a socio-economic disaster.

by PocketAces | 8th Sep 16, 8:33pm 1473323610

It seems if wage inflation had have kept pace with housing inflation, the average hourly rate would now be about $69/hour. It is currently about $29. But that is the average not the median

by Guido | 8th Sep 16, 8:55pm 1473324924

Housing tracked wages from year dot until the 1990’s, roughly 2-3 times income.

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

In the past 70’s & 80’s there was high inflation; money itself was losing 10-20% of its value some years. Wages and food was tracking house prices. Everything was inflating 10%. Housing inflation beyond wages is a fairly recent thing since about year 2000

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 9:25pm 1473326749

Correct and very good point - I guess that is why all the world is having the same issue since then after the decoupling of paper money from real money (gold) in 1974
the value of money has changed dramatically.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 9:29am 1473370189

Some people just don't get it and attempt to swim repeatedly against the global tide.

by Penguin | 8th Sep 16, 6:41pm 1473316874

Let's hope those 30,000 Lions fans who will come over next year don't decide to stay or else we'll be royally screwed!!!

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Sep 16, 5:35pm 1473399347

The North Shore is packed with them already. Too late.

by Brendon | 8th Sep 16, 8:07pm 1473322070

Meanwhile we have had 2 days of debate in Parliament on housing affordability with virtually no coverage by any of the media. Who voted for what is probably not what you expect -especially the minor party's.

Housing is a government made shemozzle and the governments support partner -ACT completely missed an opportunity to support removal of urban limits to allow competitive land supply -something which is surely a core value to the party.

See http://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/2016/09/about-last-night.html …

by philthy | 8th Sep 16, 8:05pm 1473321922

Mainstream media would probably rather find some obscure thing to run a story about that attempts to make someone in the opposition look bad, never mind challenging the governments record on anything at all.

by Brendon | 8th Sep 16, 8:53pm 1473324805

Check out what the government voted against -taxing speculators who flick houses in under 5 years. Banning foreign buyers and sensible proposals allowing more affordable homes to be built.

https://www.facebook.com/NZLabourParty/videos/10153915487746452/

Or watch this 5 min video which highlights the difference between the two sides of Parliament wrt housing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JacoDsP4iKI

by Eco Bird | 8th Sep 16, 9:44pm 1473327845

I have to say Brendon, that I have invested about 2 hours late last night looking at all the clips of the debate on the Parliament TV site ....it was time well spent!
Never had such a quality entertainment and hilarious amusement for some time ... What a circus !!
Apart from the childish behaviour and theatrical speeches of most MPs, My take away from it all was that it was a big political mistake by Labour to try to get their all sorts of policies into part two of the bill knowing very well that it would not go through be it relevant policies or otherwise ( like immigration).... I asked myself if they did this stance in desperation, or just an opportunity to show people ( supporters) that they are at least trying something ... trying to push policies this way looked very unprofessional and tacky !! but it could be that they were ( as they said) taking the opportunity to debate the issue to make it more vocal - Will be interesting to see if it all backfires or Not !
All in All, Sadly it was very amusing !!

by Brendon | 9th Sep 16, 2:45pm 1473389123

I think the opposition parties saw it a bit like team practice. Sure no one was watching -because it wasn't the big game -but they got to try out there moves and get some team bonding going. I thought it was much better than watching what the govt gives us in parliament -sweet F A.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 6:13pm 1473401611

Brendon speculators already pay tax! Have always been required to pay tax so this is just plain old wrong!
If Labour really cared about all the poor people as they state why the heck want they support the RMA changes? The truth is they are playing the poor! If NZ wants affordable homes then get rid of the barriers......let people build houses like what used to happen before greedy governments and bureaucrats go their fists in the pot!!

by Small Kev | 8th Sep 16, 8:22pm 1473322934

Work hard no longer gets you anything, and there is no such thing as productive business that people talk about all the time. Humans are going back to the basics. House and food or maybe technology. Thats why if you do not have a brain for technology your only chance to invest in property or own a Pak n Sav/ vege shop.
There won't be rich and poor, instead there will soon be rich, middle class and slaves. Middle class are those who own their own home and rentals, you get the idea...

by ham n eggs | 9th Sep 16, 8:37am 1473367069

"Humans are going back to the basics."

Agree with this 100% - everyone and everything will soon be forced back to the basics. And hard work is now a charade, its leverage and funny money now that is (temporarily) allowing people to consume more.

by Justice | 8th Sep 16, 8:30pm 1473323404

Who else got the email from Andrew Little's secretaries regarding removing this current Govt and dealing to housing affordability?

I replied to him of course, wanting clarification of his recent comments to almost the contrary in the media.

Here's what I know for sure. I won't be getting any actual reply from him

by Small Kev | 8th Sep 16, 8:30pm 1473323430

As for why people wants to own a piece of NZ. A lot of them are willing to pay for quality life style and safe heaven from terrorist..etc. Financial gain isn't always the motive. To be able to live in NZ is priceless to some.

by Hevi Groswaite | 9th Sep 16, 8:14am 1473365668

"To be able to live in NZ is priceless to some".
So true SK, so true! Our live-style is being eroded by a few people who have drunk the 'cool-aid' exported from the USA to inebriate the rest of the world and persuade us to follow along their path of no return. These people, who believed the 'wealth-effect' mantra from rising house prices, will be sadly disappointed when this bubble burst and they finally realize they've been had for fools who can no longer do anything but lament their sorry selves for their loss.

by surfisup | 8th Sep 16, 11:07pm 1473332821

If one had a spare 1 million bucks in the bank, what would you do?

by 28_29 yr old | 9th Sep 16, 4:51am 1473353467

You could buy one of my $1M stand alone rentals in Auckland. Not a bad return at $650 per week....

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 6:17am 1473358624

3.4% gross yield. Sounds great.

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Sep 16, 5:33pm 1473399212

Plus capital gains. Much better than sticking it in a bank. Hehehehe. Admit it. You messed up by not buying property a few years back.

by keywest | 9th Sep 16, 5:30am 1473355833

NZ is catching up to the real value of our houses, for too long they have been cheap. Greg still hasn't retracted his statement that NZ has the highest house prices vs. income, which is simply not true.

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 6:15am 1473358510

Yeah. Nah. New Zealand is just blowing an asset bubble.

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 6:31am 1473359479

The real value of our houses is what WE New Zealanders can pay for them, NOT the rest of the world, because the purpose of them is to house NZers. They are far too expensive for that so the rest of the world can sod off and allow them to resettle at a decent value, which is what NZers can afford!! It is the only decent thing that can be done!

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 12:09pm 1473379786

The more decent thing (which is by far the harder one but way more rewarding) is to raise New Zealand's pathetic median wages compared to the rest of OECD. This can come only from raising productivity which may come in various forms which includes, but not limited to, less protectionism, less fixation with the "Kiwi" way of doing things or things being "made in NZ" when they are more expensive and of less quality and less whinging. This will sure as hell not come from the artificial lowering of housing prices.

Oh and I am still listening to the sound of crickets regarding your constant lies about residential property and immigration visas. Don't be a loser. Find me proof that I am wrong.

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 3:53pm 1473393219

Yes I somehow forgot to attach this link the other day, then did later on, but you obviously did not see it
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/business-migration-hits-562m-%E2%80…
Notice, straight from the horse's mouth. Pertinent bit is right at the bottom. BTW I put about as much stock in the bit about safeguards as I do in your definition of homelessness.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 3:59pm 1473393559

You must be blind. I replied the same to you three times. If you have bothered to use your brains to search a little...oh forget it.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tools...

Residential property development

We'll consider a residential property development is an acceptable investment if it meets all of the following criteria:

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 3:55pm 1473393354

Oh and on the wages, your answers to them are exactly what has made them so pathetic. Oh and you reckon we couldn't have made that crap steel better, eh?

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 4:02pm 1473393760

I reckon crap steel is better than crap comments like yours. At least they can withstand some weight and a little scrutiny.

In case you are blind...sorry since you are blind:

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tools...

Residential property development

We'll consider a residential property development is an acceptable investment if it meets all of the following criteria:

by keywest | 9th Sep 16, 10:34pm 1473417244

Ace, what you and Greg still are deluded about is that you think we have high house prices vs. household income. This is simply not the case, NZ is middle to high on that level but there are many many countries that have higher house prices vs. income. Sensible debate is about admitting mistakes, I am one to admit to mistakes when I make one. I just don't understand why interest.co.nz and the NZ media will not retract the spurious comment that we have the highest House Price vs. Income. This is not true, but I don't expect anyone to make a comment on this. Usually I can count on David making a comment but everyone in the editorial team in interest.co.nz wont answer my claim? Why is that? Why the wall of silence?

by Guido | 9th Sep 16, 11:11pm 1473419514

Are you still going on about that Numberwang website where NZ sits behind, China, Angola, Syria, Ukraine, and Ethiopia etc. in price to income ratios? Keep it to the OECD buddy.

by keywest | 10th Sep 16, 12:14am 1473423268

How about Singapore and Hong Kong? close enough for you...?

by Guido | 10th Sep 16, 12:32am 1473424325

Yes, they're in there, read above:-

"Eleven countries had negative house price inflation including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Brazil and Italy."

Hong Kong -8.1%
Singapore -2.4%

by keywest | 11th Sep 16, 6:55am 1473533719

Singapore income to house price 20 to 1 same as Hong kong...I give up

by Echinops | 9th Sep 16, 6:42am 1473360164

So proud of you New Zealand! Congratulations!!

by Hevi Groswaite | 9th Sep 16, 7:57am 1473364648

And so Don Key became Chon Kee, which reflects better his stand on immigration. But he always was a Shonkey Donkey to begin with, and only recently has he become so popular that his true self needs hiding no longer.
Or is it really that we are just waking up?

by THE MAN 2 | 9th Sep 16, 8:00am 1473364827

The inflated figures are due mainly to Auckland and Tauranga etc.
The prices are artificially high due to speculators not property investors.
Yes at some stage the Auckland market will crumble as something will trigger it.
Personally as serious property Investor in Chch I wouldn't be touching the Auckland market now with a barge pole.
Once the Overseas buyers dry up and they will, there will be no one to pay the inflated prices.
If you can't be positively geared with property then I wouldn't be gambling or speculating.
There are big signs that the overseas buyers are heading to the South Island where the quality of life is far superior.

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 3:44pm 1473392669

What will tip the market over will be ridding ourselves of foreign buyers, and so we should. PS They can have Queenstown, that's been shot for the average kiwi for a couple of decades

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 4:08pm 1473394119

Are you referring to yourself as the average kiwi? That's quite sad on many levels. The average kiwi I met is not a lying, stupid and close-minded person. The average kiwi I met is generous, friendly and open to new challenges and being wrong. You must be below average.

by Property king | 9th Sep 16, 9:03am 1473368613

Perfectly said by Tony Alexander in his latest column:

As humans we are hard wired to pay more attention to things which may turn out bad than things which
may turn out good. The media know that and feed us stories which attract our attention and get coverage
for the advertisers who pay them. Capitalism hand in hand with generally left-wing reporters exploiting
human weakness.
As K says in the first Men in Black movie “There’s always an Arquillian battle cruiser, or a Corillian death
ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable planet...”
There is always something sitting out there which can cause significant economic disruption so you are
always presented with an excuse for sitting on your hands and doing nothing. Plenty of people have done
that since the global financial crisis and while that was the logical thing to do in 2008 and for much of 2009,
ignorance of the fundamentals driving our economy and housing market in particular has seen many
people choose to sit out a period of good growth and capital appreciation.
If you have avoided buying shares then you have missed a 120% rise in the NZX50 over the past five
years. If you have despaired of New Zealand’s prospects and switched your assets into foreign currencies
from late-2009 then you’ll have lost about 14% on a trade weighted index basis. If you have held off buying
a house waiting for one of those silly forecasts of 40% price falls to come true then you are massively out
of money and perhaps out in the wops when you finally make your purchase.

by Tom Joad | 9th Sep 16, 9:09am 1473368981

"Generally left-wing reporters". What's he been smoking? I just about spat out my coffee!

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 10:26am 1473373609

He is a charlatan selling mortgages for his employer and his own portfolio.

by keywest | 9th Sep 16, 10:36pm 1473417386

What utter nonsense...have you read any of TA's weekly articles?

by ham n eggs | 9th Sep 16, 12:23pm 1473380626

Property King - congratulations on living the delusion. You do realise that all this gain in paper wealth is not actually changing the underlying story of where the global economy is at re resources and growth?... The sharemarket is in record territory while the bond market thinks its the 1930's. Strange dont you think? The next time it corrects, you will be as broke as everyone else.

by Property king | 9th Sep 16, 11:34am 1473377671

If a couple decide to sign a piece of paper and live together, why on those grounds does society suddenly owe them a discounted home....nobody has a right to anything, they have as much right to a 3 month world cruise on the tax payer....

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 12:07pm 1473379649

Maybe we should get rid of property rights then? Why should society care about them?

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 12:12pm 1473379976

Funny enough, respecting property rights fully would mean unrestrained controls regarding ownership (which would include selling of land of any size to anyone). Guess who will be shafted in this? Not sure what you are trying to get at. The sense of entitlement some people have is just amazing: "I want it now, I want it cheap/free and I sure as hell am not changing anything in my life to get it because society owes me a living."

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 12:38pm 1473381534

Disregarding property rights means we don't recognise "ownership" anymore. It's just a legal fiction that society currently permits. But property owners aren't "owed" that priviledge anymore than a couple are "owed" affordability. Rhetorical question.

However shelter is a human right.

No problems with housing in 100% pure bullshit New Zealand though. It's not the most unaffordable place in the world it's just that people are being "entitled".

The mind boggles.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 12:46pm 1473381984

"Disregarding property rights means we don't recognise "ownership" anymore. It's just a legal fiction that society currently permits. But property owners aren't "owed" that priviledge anymore than a couple are "owed" affordability. Rhetorical question.

However shelter is a human right."

Try dismantling property rights entirely and we can see how much worth of the paper on which the human right of shelter is written on can be. My greater point is this: I have no idea what you are arguing about by bringing in property rights when the point was about the entitlement of married couples to own a place wherever and whenever they want at whatever the price. You do realise they are not incongruent; the existence of property rights is not incompatible with enacting measures/legislation to achieve what you wish to achieve. Unless of course you are talking about wholesale confiscation or land acquisition at below market prices just to provide these people with the entitlements.

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 12:56pm 1473382572

Society doesn't owe it's own young affordable housing apparently. I would argue society doesn't owe respect for property rights either.

Most of the world for most of human history hasn't had the modern system of ownership.

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 2:06pm 1473386785

"Society doesn't owe it's own young affordable housing apparently. I would argue society doesn't owe respect for property rights either."

I don't see how this is related. But sure, you may make such a (weak) argument.

"Most of the world for most of human history hasn't had the modern system of ownership."

That's right. And most of the world for most of human history has been plagued with conflict and poverty in the absence of such rights. Sounds like you are reminiscing for such times? I will recommend a book: The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves

by sadr001 | 9th Sep 16, 1:07pm 1473383232

Perhaps a right to shelter, but not shelter wherever they choose. There are 2,500 housing NZ houses empty in parts of NZ because people refuse to live there. Even when we offer massively discounted / free shelter as a right some people still demand location ( having a good location isn't a right, it is a privilege that people pay for - if not how do we determine who gets any particular location? by lottery?).
No matter how much we give it will never be enough, there are those who will want more for free.

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 1:18pm 1473383926

I think most people would be more than happy if housing just cost a normal price like it used to for older generations. Achievable for the average person on the average wage. If you work hard you get to enjoy the fruits of your labour and afford a family life and all that.

It's not entitlement it's just how it was before nz was mismanaged into its current freak show. It's how it still is in most of the world.

It's not like we even have a shortage of land. We just have greed and selfishness in control right now.

by sadr001 | 9th Sep 16, 2:11pm 1473387076

you mean most people just don't want to live on most of our land. If everyone wants the same pieces of land then those pieces get more expensive. We have plenty of places in NZ where the Average NZ wage will buy you an average house.

by notaneconomist | 9th Sep 16, 2:21pm 1473387689

Now that's a fine pair of rose tinted glasses you have naga.......apart from the fact it is a load of codswallop and you don't know your history of the NZ economy very welll......pretty left lenses......shame about the two left eyes though!

by xelnaga | 9th Sep 16, 7:45pm 1473407137

Did I just get called a leftie for advocating people with local salaries be able to afford the city they live in?

Where exactly were you guys when god was handing out consciences.

by Property king | 9th Sep 16, 2:18pm 1473387531

Nobody has a right to anything.

by JetLiner | 9th Sep 16, 5:47pm 1473400028

I assume you're being facetious.

We'd call the result of your idea anarchy. Might makes right, no? But for the weak, no right to police, no right to legal redress, no right to healthcare... Be honest with yourself, I mean really honest: that kind of system wouldn't work, would it? Come to think of it, maybe David Chaston should ban you, by way of experiment, because apparently you have no right to comment, by your own logic!

I've noticed that most libertarians only advocate for strong libertarianism when they feel that they hold a strong enough hand of cards in life.

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 3:41pm 1473392504

No-one owes anyone a discounted home BUT as a society we DEFINITELY owe it to our CITIZENS to see to it they do not have to compete with people who do not live here!!!!!

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 3:56pm 1473393372

You owe it to everyone here who read your comments to pull out solid evidence supported by official immigration policy about residential property and immigrant visas. Can't find any? I thought so. In this case, your comments are not worth the bytes they are transmitted on. And therefore stop pretending or professing to stand for your "fellow" citizens; most of them are not liars.

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 3:58pm 1473393534

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/business-migration-hits-562m-%E2%80…

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 4:01pm 1473393665

Hey stupid:

Point to me EXACTLY which part of the Immigration NZ website states that you can buy residential property to stay in and then obtain a visa as you repeatedly claim? Oh there's none? Don't let facts get in the way of your pathetic lies.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/apply-for-a-visa/tools...

Residential property development

We'll consider a residential property development is an acceptable investment if it meets all of the following criteria:

by PocketAces | 9th Sep 16, 4:13pm 1473394439

Just one word and the last word with you - landbanking

by tired_immigrant | 9th Sep 16, 4:26pm 1473395195

Damn. That one word solves everything. Funny how property DEVELOPMENT can suddenly morph into landbanking. I guess landbanking is the same as property development. That explains everything. You found a loophole. Immigration NZ has been alerted.

I have one word for you: fool.

by Yvil | 9th Sep 16, 1:47pm 1473385631

Highest house price inflation in the world means everyone who owns a house in NZ is becoming wealthier compared to the rest of the world

by ham n eggs | 9th Sep 16, 2:09pm 1473386963

as long as we sell the house to foreigners ... oh thats right ...

by sharetrader | 9th Sep 16, 9:16pm 1473412603

that's the joke around the office how all the Jaffa sit on lawn chairs watching their million, then head inside to do the housework LOL. not much good unless you can downsize, move somewhere cheaper or die to pass on

by Justice | 9th Sep 16, 4:18pm 1473394680

No, what it means is NZ has become an extremely expensive place to live like all the other expensive places around the world. The value of your one 'fixed' needed asset is hardly a big deal to rave about unless you are looking at moving from the Mc Mansion into an overpriced lesser shack. Values based on Speculation are relative. The bank though will say you're "wealthy" while selling you that next mortgage

by Averageman | 9th Sep 16, 4:07pm 1473394027

I just think the Govt of the day should be protecting the tax paying public, and actually try and keep housing in touch with NZ salary's. Clearly a large FAIL. The rules shouldn't favour the overseas cash that pays no tax in NZ, or the speculators that avoid tax through offset against debt interest.

Investors get the tax benefit to provide housing because the successive Governments haven't wanted to increase the burden of greater state housing stock. It a shame that most (not all) investors focus on speculating on existing stock vs building new. If the tax offset just favoured new build, and overseas money was only allowed new build, I suggest the housing mess would be less than it currently is.

The investor debt Ponzi mess was created with the introduction of Dr Cullen's envy tax back in the early 2000s. Higher income people were rightly pissed off at being targeted for their hard work, and really climbed into property and its tax offset gearing model. Property investment seminars have sold this benefit for years and still do today. Well done Dr Cullen.

Let’s see some clear housing policy going into next year’s election. Look after tax payers,…or continue to favour the NZ and overseas speculators.

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Sep 16, 5:24pm 1473398663

Try not to laugh too hard!

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objec…

LOL!

by Echinops | 9th Sep 16, 8:37pm 1473410263

Lots of innocent people have missed out big time listening to BH in 2010! And you wonder why he left Auckland a few years ago? Go figure.

by Eco Bird | 10th Sep 16, 3:06am 1473433602

Thank you - this is a beauty !! lol

Thank God for archives, they can really be scandalous at times and blow away the emperor's fig leaf ...!!

OMG .... So what does that tell you about BH's predictions and economic forecasting ??
Last I heard that he was an "Expert" that people turn to for complex advice !! See the first 6 minutes of this: lol
http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/thenation/panel-tim-murphy-jane-young-…

"Household income levels are still well over 5 times house values in many of the big cities. That is plainly unsustainable, particularly as the credit that fuelled the bubble is slowly withdrawn." Really ??

" still think we've got another 10 per cent to fall in actual terms. That may take a few years. Meanwhile, real prices will fall even further. Once the inflation surge of late 2010 and early 2011 is taken into account, real house prices are likely to be down almost 20 per cent by the end of next year."

A Master Piece and Priceless advice of 2010 !!

Ohhh and the comments on the article are hilarious ....

by OnwardsUpwards | 10th Sep 16, 7:38am 1473449905

Hahahaha!

by David George | 10th Sep 16, 7:46am 1473450397

Crikey you've been up late worrying about our house prices Eco Bird.
That link http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/thenation/panel-tim-murphy-jane-young-… was most interesting, particularly the bit about immigration fraud. Are we a bunch of ning nongs or what? Don't know what you're on about though - couldn't find the comments you mentioned.

by Joe Public | 10th Sep 16, 3:15am 1473434150

Wow 201 comments

Is there a petition calling for a Vancouver TAX in NZ on all foreign buyers (students and temp workers also)?
How does one start one?

John Key will lose the next election based on his lack of action in regards to housing. We just need one of the opposition parties to put their hand up and introduce a Vancouver tax 15%.

Greens, NZ First, Labour wake up you are going to lose if you carry on with the same approach as the last elections.
Tax foreign buyers 15%
Correctly classify all foreign buyers not just offshore. Include students and temp visa. They are not nz citizens therefore they are foreign buyers.

Write to your MP'S. They all have email addresses

winston.peters@parliament.govt.nz
andrew.little@parliament.govt.nz
james.shaw@parliament.govt.nz
metiria.turei@parliament.govt.nz

Email them all calling on a Vancouver 15% tax. That's what the public can do.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/top/312550/vancouver's-property-market-sl…

by Basel Brush III | 10th Sep 16, 11:06am 1473462386

No. We need a tax that leaps those of Vancouver, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Make it 20% plus a sales tax on non-resident sellers of 10%.

by eskyrider | 11th Sep 16, 1:54pm 1473558847

New Zealand has the second highest rate of house price inflation in the world, as long as the world consists of only 55 countries, according to Knight Frank's Global House Price Index would be a better first sentence for this article.
The United Nations says there are 195 counties in the world, so what happened to the other 140?