The average value of a NZ home now $622,309, in Auckland it's $1,045,207

Average housing values are continuing to rise throughout the country but the rate of growth is slowing, according to Quotable Value (QV).

The average value of a New Zealand home is now $622,309 based on sales over the three months to the end of October.

That's up 12.7% compared to the same period last year, but that rate of growth is slowing.

The average value of a New Zealand home at the end of September was $619,660, which was up 14.3% compared to the same period of last year.

The same trend is evident in the upper North Island centres, where property values continue to rise, but at a slower pace, with the annual increase in housing values in Auckland declining from 15% in September to 13.8% in October, while in Hamilton it declined from 27.1% to 25%. In Tauranga it was down from 28.1% in September to 27% in October.

According to QV the rate at which housing values are increasing in Auckland is the slowest it has been since March last year.

New LVR restrictions take effect, Wellington unaffected

However that may not be much comfort to people struggling to get into the housing market in Auckland, where the average value of a home is now $1,045,207. and even in Franklin, the southern most part of Auckland which has the cheapest house prices, the average value is $641,668 (see the table below for average values and annual growth rates for all parts of the country).

"The QV House Price Index is now showing a slight tick to the right which reflects an easing in the annual rate of growth over the past month as the latest round of LVR restrictions begin to take effect," QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said.

"Sales volumes are down by around 12% on the same period last year and mortgage approval rates are also down.

"Home values continue to rise faster in the Wellington region than the Auckland region and the housing market in the capital appears largely unaffected by the new LVR restrictions, particularly at the more affordable end of the market in areas such as the Hutt Valley, Porirua and the Kapiti Coast.

"Auckland, Tauranga and Hamilton home values are continuing to rise, just at a slightly slower pace than they were prior to the new LVR measures being introduced.

"The Dunedin market also continues to see good levels of activity and demand, while investors are less active in the Christchurch market and home values there continue to show only modest growth.

"The new build market remains strong as the new LVR restrictions for investors do not apply for new homes.

"Less established investors appear to having difficulty raising finance with the new 40% deposit requirement, while recent CoreLogic Buyer Classification Data shows that 34% of investors with five or more properties do not need to raise a mortgage so are not affected by the new LVR rules.

"Those investors shut out of the more expensive markets appear to be turning their sights to more affordable markets in relatively close proximity to North Island main centres," Rush said.

QV House Price Index October 2015
Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change%
Auckland Region 1,045,207 13.8%
Wellington Region 558,886 21.1%
Main Urban Areas         747,507 12.6%
Total New Zealand/Nationwide 622,309 12.7%
     
Whangarei 451,874 23.9%
Kaipara 436,144 20.2%
Auckland - Rodney 918,899 17.1%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 896,988 16.4%
Rodney - North 940,204 17.5%
Auckland - North Shore 1,220,550 13.5%
North Shore - Coastal 1,391,044 12.9%
North Shore - Onewa 990,038 13.9%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,179,794 14.4%
Auckland - Waitakere 837,300 13.5%
Auckland - City 1,209,199 12.0%
Auckland City - Central 1,040,640 11.4%
Auckland_City - East 1,497,097 11.4%
Auckland City - South 1,112,901 13.0%
Auckland City - Islands 1,032,945 16.5%
Auckland - Manukau 906,128 15.6%
Manukau - East 1,173,581 16.7%
Manukau - Central 698,842 13.9%
Manukau - North West 768,563 16.0%
Auckland - Papakura 683,031 16.3%
Auckland - Franklin 641,668 13.9%
Thames Coromandel 623,536 15.5%
Hauraki 324,565 24.3%
Waikato 420,770 30.2%
Matamata Piako 367,901 24.9%
Hamilton 537,388 25.0%
Hamilton - North East 687,161 26.8%
Hamilton - Central & North West 500,392 25.3%
Hamilton - South East 489,753 23.8%
Hamilton - South West 467,546 23.1%
Waipa 465,856 23.8%
Otorohanga 242,854 17.2%
South Waikato 174,620 23.4%
Waitomo 164,567 11.8%
Taupo 413,176 16.8%
Western BOP 596,782 33.0%
Tauranga 651,725 27.0%
Rotorua 362,583 25.9%
Whakatane 373,817 23.8%
Kawerau 151,957 49.3%
Opotiki 259,963 21.2%
Gisborne 256,490 10.4%
Wairoa 165,063 12.1%
Hastings 366,083 16.3%
Napier 396,000 18.1%
Central Hawkes Bay 232,718 9.5%
New Plymouth 402,526 9.9%
Stratford 230,372 8.6%
South Taranaki 201,793 8.1%
Ruapehu 151,169 13.1%
Whanganui 204,553 12.0%
Rangitikei 159,097 10.5%
Manawatu 277,404 11.5%
Palmerston North 335,136 12.7%
Tararua 162,470 10.2%
Horowhenua 240,800 15.3%
Kapiti Coast 458,013 18.5%
Porirua 470,059 21.7%
Upper Hutt 405,550 19.6%
Hutt 460,572 22.6%
Wellington 671,387 21.3%
Wellington - Central & South 673,584 19.4%
Wellington - East 722,209 22.5%
Wellington - North 594,589 22.2%
Wellington - West 785,452 23.2%
Masterton 263,384 11.0%
Carterton 306,842 17.0%
South Wairarapa 344,807 13.2%
Tasman 485,666 12.8%
Nelson 484,019 13.8%
Marlborough 410,484 14.4%
Kaikoura 387,698 7.7%
Buller 188,680 -3.2%
Grey 204,470 -3.2%
Westland 231,861 0.0%
Hurunui 364,973 -0.1%
Waimakariri 430,173 3.7%
Christchurch 498,425 4.7%
Christchurch - East 376,670 4.3%
Christchurch - Hills 680,656 7.1%
Christchurch - Central & North 587,282 4.9%
Christchurch - Southwest 447,107 -1.4%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 507,707 6.4%
Selwyn 541,536 5.1%
Ashburton 350,641 4.8%
Timaru 333,399 6.8%
MacKenzie 383,839 18.6%
Waimate 219,464 5.8%
Waitaki 252,402 9.2%
Central Otago 408,830 21.5%
Queenstown Lakes 974,564 29.8%
Dunedin 341,566 13.0%
Dunedin - Central & North 354,449 12.4%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 305,445 11.9%
Dunedin - South 326,917 14.3%
Dunedin - Taieri 354,447 12.7%
Clutha 183,785 12.9%
Southland 220,621 5.3%
Gore 199,523 7.8%
Invercargill 229,342 7.2%

QV house price index

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Source: QV
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49 Comments

Jeez it's still humming along.I thought it would've slowed up a bit more.wonder what the quarterly numbers are.

Yeah last quarter numbers would be nice. These are normally reported worth qv data. Shows how things are changing, auck might still be up 13% from 12 months ago but likely all that a gained in start of the year and the last 3 months may have been flat (could even have fallen for all we know without getting the 3 month data).

Just have to wait till qv update there website.

How long till Wellington and Auckland prices are equal?

it won't happen. Auckland will always be a more desirable place to live, at least for foreigners (better weather, better beaches nearby, more hours of sun and less heating costs, better international connections, better international recognition and foreign investment..)

Double check your sunshine hrs 'fact'.

Auckland much less desirable place to live for many many ppl. Welly cbd living historically has been more expensive than auckland (less shoe box slum apartments in welly, generally making things a tad more classy) less flat land that's not reclaimed also and a more centralised cbd with highest density of working population in nz around lambton (thanks to govt)

1.5 Million people are saying Auckland is more desirable to live in vs 400'000 in Wellington

Based on your logic Tokyo is the most desirable place to live in the world followed by Delhi. Aspen or Queenstown would be two of least desirable places.

Mexico city 2nd most desirable...

maybe Auckland can make it onto this list of some of the great cities of the world, only need to squeeze another mil in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population_density

AKL is barely a city on a global scale. Building capacity is constrained. I hear in the building industry there is a shortage of basic items like plasterboard so it's not just about planning consents, labour etc. It will probably take 20 years to add 1m people to the population of AKL.

Wellington is little more than an administrative town that happens to be the capital. Tauranga and Hamilton will overtake it in population terms in medium term imo.

Penguin, Wellington hardly just an administrative capital. Higher GDP growth per capita than all major centres, highest wages in nation. Home to NZ film industry. Regarding IT Auckland is looked on as the maintenance/ administrative sector, while Wgtn is the creative centre, hence have start ups out of Wellington such as Xero and Cric HQ etc.

Never

Wellington is due for a big earthquake, so that will put a lot of people off. Look at Christchurch, their property prices bubbled not long after the EQ's, due to a lack of supply, but their market isn't doing as well now. Plus it is cold down there.

That data would not have any relevance to sales that took place in October - only sales that settled up during October and that will have been sold two or three months earlier. So next quarters data may be more relevant to what is really happening out there.

Hamilton up 4.7 in last three month's. That's quite a pullback.

Where did you find the 3 month data? Not up on qv yet...

Wellington 6.6 percent over last three months

Auckland?

Auckland up 5.3 in last three months

So basically no slow down at all in auckland, back at a +20% pa rate. Wonder why this figure was so poorly reported given its the most significant figure of all. If auck keeps flung at 5% a quarter with 60% lvr limit then unfortunately we will definately see DTI coming in.

Sorry Zach that can't be right I'll check that in a minute

Double checked and it is 5.3 percent in three months.it looks like it's taking back off up there

" CoreLogic shows that 34% of investors with five or more properties do not need to raise a mortgage so are not affected by the new LVR rules."
This also suggests a DTI limit would not be an issue for well-managed professional investors.

Not too sure that Core Logic is right here?
Would have doubts that a third of property investors are sitting around with several hundred thousand at least available without borrowing?
The major problem that has happened with the property and the Banks is that the Banks have lent out at 80 per cent and extended that as a loanable value on previous mortgages has now dropped it to 60 per cent on all the existing loanable values, which is a huge negative.
Hasn't affected us yet but it probably will in the future because they will all need to be revalued due to the number that we have.
Don't believe the The DTIs will be brought in as the LVR at 60 per cent is a killer to any new investor and it will kill the inspiration for someone with equity in their own home that wants one or two rentals.
Forget about it.
DTIs if brought in would kill the first home buyer totally in many cities.

I wondered that too. I think they meant to say that 34% have easily enough equity to cover the LVI rule.

If it were true I would expect them to be buying up large - but it seems they're not.....

If they weren't leveraging to the hilt before the change in LVR rules, what makes you think that they would feel the need to now?

If you've had a personal LVR rule of 50% for most of your life then the Reserve bank setting a 40% LVR rule make no difference at all to your investment strategy. You'd just wait till you could buy another at 50% LVR and do so.

Ok fair enough. They must have huge equity prior to the 60 per cent LVR coming in as previously 80 will make a huge difference when they go in to borrow more. they may be surprised the affect it does have.

Nd Herald .Good luck bro

Where's all the money coming from? Truly land of milk and honey.

Isn't that miss reporting saying Auckland is slowing up when infact it has re accelerated?if you annualized the three monthly result it's running at just over twenty percent

Isn't that miss reporting saying Auckland is slowing up when infact it has re accelerated?if you annualized the three monthly result it's running at just over twenty percent

The new AKL unitary plan is bound to inflate property prices. The land value component has just risen...you can now build two houses rather than one on a plot on many sites.

It's called densification!

It will all change when what is happening now stops... until then the trend will continue to be based on the decisions that most people make.

If you're a first home buyer in Auckland with a decent deposit, what do you do?

Wait for a crash and hang onto my money, or buy in and risk having my one and only asset plummet in value?

Or will the lack of supply mean the crash doesn't happen?

Honestly no idea what to do anymore.

You wait for confirmation of the next recession in official data. Then look to buy 6-12mths from this date, and ensure you are buying from a distressed seller. If the houses are homogenous new builds, you put in offers approximately 20% below market value, until you come across the developer under financier pressure, or the property investor under pressure from their bank. If not new builds place offers 10-15% below market until get a bite. There is no guarantee you will buy cheaper than you can today, though I would say in all likelihood you will. The key is you will be tilting risk reward in your favour and will be less likely to slip into negative equity. Hope this helps, always need to have a 5-10yr plan and patience.

Thanks for the tips, much appreciated... Where would you look for confirmation of the next recession?

Recession will be confirmed by official data with 2 successive quarters of negative inflation adjusted GDP, will likely coincide with a fall off in net immigration. If National wins election Sept 2017 and immigration remains above 30K per annum, then GDP growing at less than 1% per annum, can also act as your recession trigger (National will likely try to prop up GDP with immigration). Then ideally wait 6-12mths, as lay offs/ reduced self employed income will lead to loan/ mortgage defaults and reduced spending. This will then pressure businesses and those who have defaulted will be strongly encouraged to sell or forced into mortgagee sales. This is when you pitch offers 20% below the new reduced market value. Say at peak properties worth 1 million, and during the recession similar properties selling for 850K, you offer about 680-700K (have finance pre-arranged so not conditional on finance). You will get lots of rejected offers but eventually someone will bite. Official data often only shows a 10% reduction in prices during a recession, but on the ground I would expect to buy 25-30% below previous value from developers and leveraged property investors. Even during a very mild recession, still get at least 25% discounts, key is to have pre-arranged finance and pitch as clean an offer as possible with a short settlement. In my hay day I would settle that week, offer on Monday, close Friday (arranged with lawyer), but 2-4 weeks would work.

Thanks, I am just learning about all this economy-related stuff so appreciate your comment!
Sounds like a good plan.

Do you think it's a case of 'when' not 'if'?

There will be another recession there always is, at this point properties will be available at a discount. The one thing I have learnt about markets is they can do anything, bull markets push higher than you would expect and then often keep rolling for another 12-24mths. I believe this has happened in Auckland. If I was to place a bet I would say Auckland property prices will fall. The key is to concentrate buying to a recession (buyers market), as then you can get a great deal and set yourself up well for the future. If it was me I would forget about property for at least 18mths, and say to myself I will get a great deal during the next recession, and this is why I am waiting and being patient. Need to keep your deposit safe, if in banks split between a few and if Auckland on Australian property markets start to fall and it is all over media, I would put my deposit funds into NZ government bonds. As when recessions hit, safe havens are no longer safe. I placed all our funds mid-2008 in NZ govt bonds, as I was only happy to lend to someone who could print money to pay me back. The key is to leave behind the angst about property, and be patient, life is too short to be fretting over not owning a house. Enjoy having minimal debt and wait. Remember the rich get richer because they don't have to make money and are happy living their lives, so assets have to be at bargain prices to entice them to get involved . While the poor and middle class scramble around trying to make things happen, and invariably buy at the wrong time.

Also treat property/home ownership as a lifestyle choice. There's nothing wrong with renting while waiting for a better opportunity. Any time I make an offer I usually try for a large discount no matter the market.

I am more hesitant to advise buy now than I was twelve months ago. My advice would be to be as choosy as possible and not be hasty. Seek the best location you can afford and possibly a two bedroom, low maintenance place that can easily become a three bedroom or has room for a sleepout. You will know that prices have become stagnant when you see more houses with price tags and houses under contract.

We have been looking at 2bdr units close to the city (Sandringham etc) but it's still feeling overvalued.

I feel pretty uncertain about potentially investing everything I have in a bubble market. Wondering if it's best to 'wait and see'?

I am noticing a few more with price tags now where I am looking in Wellington. There's still lots of tenders etc but a few more price tags popping up. Or maybe I just notice them. IDK.

Strike now or forever stand on the sideline.

Funny, I heard the exact same sort of comment back in 2007.

Farther to fall this time too...

Hmmm, and what would the property be worth now if you bought in 2007? Just saying.

What happens if Trump wins and rates go up in USA? Cause he seems quite pissed about the low rates