House prices nationally rose just 2% in past three months; Auckland average rises to $1.05 mln, but slowest rate of growth in nearly two years

House prices nationally rose just 2% in past three months; Auckland average rises to $1.05 mln, but slowest rate of growth in nearly two years

House prices are still rising in most parts of the country, but a trend of slowing growth is continuing in Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch, according to QV.

This has led to a slower rate of growth nationally.

The latest monthly QV House Price Index shows nationwide residential property values as of November had increased 12.4% in the past year, which is the slowest rate annualised growth rate since May 2016.

The average value nationwide is $624,675. Values rose by 2% in the past three months and are now 50.8% above the previous market peak of late 2007.

When adjusted for inflation the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 12.1% and values are now 27.8% above the 2007 peak. The full spreadsheet of November pricing information all around the country from QV is available here.

The average value for the Auckland Region is $1,051,387. QV said the Auckland market increased 12.8% year-on-year, which is the slowest rate since January 2015. Home values in the Super City rose by 3.7% over the past three months and are now 92.4% higher than the previous peak of 2007.

When adjusted for inflation, values rose 12.6% over the past year and are 63.1% above the 2007 peak.

QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said the latest QV House Price Index figures showed the Queenstown District had followed the Auckland Region in posting an average value over $1 million dollars after recording a massive 32.2% rise in residential property values over the past year.

But elsewhere the picture is changing.

LVRs bite

"...The latest round of LVR restrictions have led to a weaker than normal spring as a reduction in demand for investor housing stock has resulted in more subdued value growth and has seen nationwide quarterly growth to ease back to 2.0%," Rush said.

"While values continue to rise in most parts of New Zealand, the trend of a slowing rate of growth continues for Auckland, Hamilton, and Christchurch."

Rush said too that the Wellington market, which had previously been very buoyant, has now also started to see some of the heat coming out of it as the new LVRs take effect there.

“Regional centres with entry level properties under $300,000 are not seeing the same impact of the new LVRs and many continue to see strong demand and value growth including the Hawkes Bay, Rotorua, the Hauraki and Waipa Districts and Dunedin.”

“The latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification Data reveals the new LVR restrictions have not yet led to any significant decline in the share of sales going to multiple property owners; nor to investors in the Auckland market, which has remained at 43%, since they were introduced.”

Rush said it was too soon to tell what impact the recent earthquakes will have on property values.

“The recent earthquake series are a reminder that disaster can strike at any time and it is crucial for owner homers to ensure they are adequately insured.”  

Auckland's 'two markets'

QV Auckland General Manager, Jan O’Donoghue said, there was "a tale of two different markets in Auckland currently".

"We are continuing to see strong demand in the $1.5 million dollars plus bracket and the new build market which is resulting in high sales prices being achieved for these properties.

"But at the same time there’s been a significant reduction in demand for entry level investor housing stock particularly in Manukau over the past month and sales prices for this type of property have reportedly dropped back by as much as 20 to 30% on what was being achieved earlier in the year."

O'Donoghue said there had been a late surge of new listings coming onto the market from people wanting to sell prior to Christmas "and this increased the sense that it’s currently more of a buyers’ market than it has been since the beginning of the year in some areas".

"The new build and off the plan markets remain strong while demand for older apartments has eased off which may be due to investors having more difficulty raising finance to purchase them.

And O'Donoghue reports there has been a 'Trump effect' on the market.

"Since the US elections there have been reports of higher buyer inquiry from foreigners looking to relocate to New Zealand and also Kiwis living abroad looking to return to New Zealand."

QV House Price Index November 2016
Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change%
Auckland Region 1,051,387 12.8%
Wellington Region 565,631 20.6%
Main Urban Areas 751,113 12.6%
Total New Zealand/Nationwide 624,675 12.4%
     
Whangarei 456,969 22.3%
Kaipara 435,635 21.8%
Auckland - Rodney 923,594 15.2%
  Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 895,003 13.3%
  Rodney - North 949,942 16.6%
Auckland - North Shore 1,224,477 12.5%
  North Shore - Coastal 1,400,984 12.6%
  North Shore - Onewa 984,557 12.2%
  North Shore - North Harbour 1,188,075 13.3%
Auckland - Waitakere 845,864 13.1%
Auckland - City 1,222,371 11.6%
  Auckland City - Central 1,055,002 10.9%
  Auckland_City - East 1,520,825 11.2%
  Auckland City - South 1,115,066 12.1%
  Auckland City - Islands 1,029,854 14.3%
Auckland - Manukau 906,004 13.7%
  Manukau - East 1,168,113 14.6%
  Manukau - Central 696,784 11.9%
  Manukau - North West 7772,913 14.2%
Auckland - Papakura 680,134 14.2%
Auckland - Franklin 647,904 12.6%
Thames Coromandel 623,981 14.5%
Hauraki 352,448 34.2%
Waikato 426,808 29.1%
Matamata Piako 384,954 26.8%
Hamilton 536,565 23.1%
  Hamilton - North East 684,875 23.5%
  Hamilton - Central & North West 498,092 22.5%
  Hamilton - South East 488,963 23.2%
  Hamilton - South West 468,468 22.1%
Waipa 470,996 23.5%
Otorohanga 235,430 9.0%
South Waikato 180,900 25.6%
Waitomo 168,137 15.4%
Taupo 406,014 13.8%
Western BOP 591,202 30.5%
Tauranga 665,155 26.5%
Rotorua 372,849 27.7%
Whakatane 365,438 19.0%
Kawerau 158,602 52.9%
Opotiki 247,278 13.1%
Gisborne 266,676 14.9%
Wairoa 161,579 10.8%
Hastings 375,175 18.1%
Napier 408,509 20.5%
Central Hawkes Bay 245,437 15.1%
New Plymouth 405,859 8.7%
Stratford 236,127 10.6%
South Taranaki 201,440 6.7%
Ruapehu 152,444 16.1%
Whanganui 205,932 11.5%
Rangitikei 156,194 8.0%
Manawatu 280,362 11.1%
Palmerston North 339,678 13.7%
Tararua 164,835 9.3%
Horowhenua 250,417 18.7%
Kapiti Coast 464,077 19.3%
Porirua 473,624 21.0%
Upper Hutt 412,077 19.6%
Hutt 461,955 20.4%
Wellington 683,794 22.5%
  Wellington - Central & South 684,851 21.2%
  Wellington - East 738,782 21.4%
  Wellington - North 603,074 23.3%
  Wellington - West 805,182 25.1%
Masterton 269.060 11.4%
Carterton 309,979 18.9%
South Wairarapa 349,779 12.4%
Tasman 487,011 12.2%
Nelson 489,338 15.4%
Marlborough 411,474 13.4%
Kaikoura 396,655 6.4%
Buller 191,375 0.0%
Grey 207,837 -2.1%
Westland 233,831 1.7%
Hurunui 372,520 3.9%
Waimakariri 430,041 3.1%
Christchurch 501,229 4.3%
  Christchurch - East 378,511 3.9%
  Christchurch - Hills 677,742 4.3%
  Christchurch - Central & North 591,969 4.7%
  Christchurch - Southwest 474,906 4.3%
  Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 517,646 6.2%
Selwyn 543,586 4.1%
Ashburton 350,942 3.8%
Timaru 332,554 6.4%
MacKenzie 397,473 20.1%
Waimate 225,320 6.8%
Waitaki 253,089 10.0%
Central Otago 392.775 16.4%
Queenstown Lakes 1,000,205 32.2%
Dunedin 341,604 11.4%
  Dunedin - Central & North 354,124 9.5%
  Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 305,738 8.9%
  Dunedin - South 325,299 13.2%
  Dunedin - Taieri 357,476 13.1%
Clutha 188,954 11.2%
Southland 225,353 6.0%
Gore 202,333 9.7%
Invercargill 233,326 8.6%

QV house price index

Select chart tabs »

The 'Index' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
monthly
Source: QV
The '% change year on year' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
monthly
Source: QV

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

18 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

Trump effect. Let's blame him, why not.

"But at the same time there’s been a significant reduction in demand for entry level investor housing stock particularly in Manukau over the past month and sales prices for this type of property have reportedly dropped back by as much as 20 to 30% on what was being achieved earlier in the year."

Interesting times ahead.

Anyone know the three month average for hamilton papamoa and Cambridge?

Stuf.co.nz are doing a report over the next few days on the NZ housing bubble

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/87061041/blowing-bubbles-is-there...

15
up

rise of 12.8% is the slowest in 2 years yet still one of the highest rates in the developed world... madness

Headline should be despite LVR changes prices still up by over 100k in Auckland in the last year

Bring in loan to income
bring in stamp duty on non citizens

Kick out national

The average value for the Auckland Region is $1,051,387. QV said the Auckland market increased 12.8% year-on-year, which is the slowest rate since January 2015.

Interesting to see queenstown lakes has an average of 1m now

Also waikato up 30% ...and lot's of other regions ... the investor auckland madness is spreading

What QV loses with their three-month focus is the monthly change. The Auckland region price increased by 0.5% in the past month - which equates with a stall. The figure will be slightly biased (although not as much as the REINZ figure) by the continual sale of plus $1m houses. But effectively Auckland has peaked and is probably declining.

I would hardly call 0.5% a stall - that would be over 6% per annum of tax free capital gains - pretty handy return if you are cash flow positive on the rental aspect as well. It would still be above what could be considered long term sustainable house prices rises

That said I totally agree with you that the market in Auckland is declining - and then we will see the speculators sorted from the investors - as gearing and cashflow start to mean something again.

Certainly 6% on a million is above the average wage. However, it is probably not enough to overcome the negative cash flow of property investment if you are not . In addition, the QV figures are based on settlement dates, which combined with the delay from data loading means that the sales are lagging by around two months. I think the REINZ figures also suggest that Auckland is already in decline.

10
up

nothing gonna happen until they ban or tax foreign buyers, and reign in immigration...boot national out to get affordable housing...other major parties will tackle foreign buyers

Yep I'm certainly not going to be voting for National until realistic property prices and therefore a better quality of life balance has been restored.

Not going to happen its another National win at the next election. The people moaning on this site are the minority, the rest of the country is just getting on with it. Even if the government changed, the house pricing is never going to fall to the levels that were seen 20 years ago. Continued rises from this point can be controlled by immigration and building more houses but don't expect a massive price crash even if this happens. Its not in any governments interest to have a house price collapse, its will totally stuff the economy.

Brexit...Clinton......Key?

Brexit .. Clinton.... EURO CCY

David could we have the three monthly increase as well of annual increase as it will highlight how much each region is slowing down. Many thanks

Link to QV's full spreadsheet of nationwide pricing has been added to article and is also available by clicking here.

Yep I would vote for DTI, and Stamp Duty for overseas owners, and killing off the tax offset that property debt enjoys. If we then have to build 1000s of state houses then all good, think of the next generation of apprentices that will train. Great for the averageman, not so great for the tax avoiding debt junkie speculator, and overseas owners that pay stuff all tax in NZ. There's a voting generator if ever I saw one.

Be more interesting looking at the number of sales and prices going forward in the next three months now the cost of borrowing overseas as started to rise. People with eye watering debt will be the first to go.