'There are plenty of options for people looking to buy and the fear of missing out is long gone,' - QV's House Value Index report for June

Average housing values are flat in Auckland, increasing more slowly in Wellington and falling slightly in Christchurch, according to the latest figures from Quotable Value (QV).

The average value of all homes throughout the entire country was $639,051 in June, up 8.1% on June last year, according to the FileQV Value Index for June.

Housing values remain elevated in almost all areas of the country compared to a year ago, with only five districts having lower average values in June than they did in June last year.

They were Buller $186,087 (-11.4%), Grey District $211,263 (-0.4%), Christchurch East $372,246 (-0.2%), Banks Peninsula $507,672 (-1.3%) and Ashburton $347,807 (-0.8%).

The biggest annual increase in average values was in Kawerau in the Bay of Plenty, where the average dwelling value was $181,797 in June, still extremely modest compared to most other places the country but up 38.8% on June last year.

Average dwelling values are highest in the eastern suburbs of central Auckland, which includes suburbs such as Remuera and Mission Bay, where the average value was $1,534,921 in June, up 7.1% compared to a year ago, followed by coastal North Shore where the average dwelling value was $1,376,695 in June, up 6.2% compared to a year earlier.

The only place outside of Auckland where average dwelling values are above $1 million is Queenstown-Lakes, where it was $1,071,995 in June, up 19.2% on a year ago.

However although average housing values are well up on 12 months ago in most areas, there are signs that values are easing.

In Auckland and Hamilton values appear to have plateaued while the rate of value growth in Wellington is slowing and in Christchurch they have fallen marginally.

Here are QV's main centre summaries:

Auckland
Values across the Auckland Region are continuing to plateau with values remaining steady over at 0.0% change over the past three months.

Values have continued to rise in some parts of the Auckland region but have decreased in others.

Auckland City – Islands rose the most over the past quarter with values rising 3.1% since April and 13.3% year on year.

Rodney-North also continued to increase more quickly than other parts of the city up 2.2% over the past three months and 13.6% year on year.

Values decreased in the Auckland City apartment market and also Auckland City East and South; as well as in Waitakere, Manukau-North West, Papakura and Franklin over the past three months.  
 
QV Auckland homevalue Manager, James Steele said, “There has been a drop in the level of activity in the Auckland market and sales volumes are down by 30% on the same time last year and we are now seeing an easing back on sale prices at most levels.” 
 
“A key characteristic of the market is that it is more difficult than it has been to obtain finance. Lenders are asking a lot more questions than they used to, and are taking longer to process loans and get approvals back to customers.”
 
“Building activity is also slowing as builders are finding building costs have increased but they are not achieving the same sale prices as they were last year.”
 
“There are still some opportunities for first home buyers to purchase homes in Takanini, Papakura and Pukekohe priced under the KiwiSaver first home buyers’ scheme cap at $650,000.”
 “However there are reports of deals falling over as buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to raise finance under banks’ increasingly strict lending criteria.”
 
“Well-presented, well-maintained properties in desirable locations sell well, but properties that don’t tick those boxes can sit on the market for longer.”
 
“There are plenty of options for people looking to buy, and the fear of missing out is long gone.”
 

Hamilton  
Hamilton City home values are rising again up by 1.2% over the past three months and 9.5% year on year.

Values are now 49.2% higher than the previous peak of 2007. The average value in the Hamilton is now $539,357.
 
QV homevalue Hamilton valuer, Stephen Hare said, “Values in the Hamilton city market have plateaued over the past month. “
 

“However, sales volumes have picked up recently, however the average time on the market for a residential property has lengthened and this is giving buyers more opportunity to negotiate on price and conditions of purchase.”
 
“With the heat now having come out of the market clearance rates have fallen at auctions, however properties continue to see multi offers and many are still selling above the asking prices.”
 
“In turn listing prices or negotiations are becoming the more desirable option with people less inclined to take risk auctioning in the current market.”
 
The drop off in the number of investors at the entry level of the market has created more opportunities for first home buyers, who were previously getting beaten when vying for properties.”
 
“There are a good number of low-mid homes currently on the market in the lower price bracket of between $350K and $500K which is giving first home buyers a better chance to get into the market.
 
Tauranga
Tauranga home values have increased by 14.6% year on year and 1.6% over the past three months.

Values there are now 42.8% higher than the previous peak of 2007.

The average value in the city is $687,364. Meanwhile, Western Bay of Plenty values have increased 16.3% year on year and 3.7% over the past three months. The average value in the district is now $612,363.
 
QV homevalue Tauranga, Registered Valuer, David Hume said, “Demand for Mount Maunganui based properties remains strong and record prices continue to be achieved.
 
“Desirable suburbs around Tauranga such as Matua, Bethlehem and the Avenues are also continuing to see strong levels of demand and record prices being achieved for well-located and presented properties.”
 
“The Western Bay of Plenty market is also showing steady demand although at the same frantic levels seen throughout 2016 and values are still rising but not as quickly as they were.”
 
“Strong migration to the area and a lack of rental accommodation continues to push rents up, with Tauranga now the third most expensive city in New Zealand and an average rental of $475 per week.”
 
“Activity in the investor market is at more normalised levels to that witnessed through 2015/16 as a result of the LVR restrictions to 40% equity required.”
 
Wellington   
The QV House Price Index shows quarterly value growth in the Wellington region has eased back from previous highs of 5 to 6% a quarter to 2.4% over the past three months.

Values were up 18.0% in the year since June 2016 and are now 33.8% higher than in the previous peak of 2007. The average value across the wider region is now $609,552.
 
The Kapiti Coast District once again saw the highest quarterly value growth rising 5.3% over the past three months; followed by Wellington City’s Western suburbs where values rose 4.3% over the same period.

Meanwhile, values dipped slightly by 0.4% in Porirua in the three months since April.
 
QV homevalue Registered Valuer, David Cornford said, “The Wellington market remains robust however the rate of value growth has slowed considerably.”
 
“The onset of winter has seen a decrease in buyer demand and the market is relatively quiet with less active buyers compared to the same time 12 months ago.”
 
“First home buyers however remain active in the market and well-presented and well located properties are still selling well and are generally achieving strong prices.

However, properties with undesirable characteristics are taking longer to sell and buyers appear to be adopting a more cautious approach regarding their purchasing decisions and they are in less of a hurry compared to 12 months ago.”
 
“New listings and overall listings are up compared to the same time last year and the number of days it’s taking properties to sell has also risen. When you add to this the fact that sales volumes are lower compared to the same time last year and the rate of value growth has eased back, we can confirm we are now seeing an overall slowing in the market.”
 
Christchurch 
Christchurch City values remain flat rising just 1.1 % in the year since June 2016 and they decreased slightly by 0.1% over the past three months. Values in the city are now 30.8% higher than the previous peak of 2007.
 
QV homevalue Christchurch, Registered Valuer Daryl Taggart said, “It’s definitely winter in the Christchurch housing market with a slow-down in activity and demand and a corresponding stagnation is value growth being seen.”

“Listings levels are higher and homes are taking longer to sell in the market currently.

“It appears there is less optimism and confidence in where values are going in the market currently and it’s not only taking longer to sell property here but it’s also harder to buy with banks being stricter with their lending criteria. “

Dunedin
Dunedin home values are continuing the upward trend seen over the past 18 months and the market is seemingly unaffected by recent LVR restrictions or stricter lending criteria that is effecting sales volumes in other parts of the country.
 

Home values in the city rose 14.6% in the year since June 2016 and 3.2% over the past three months and values are now 31.1% above the previous peak of 2007. The average value in the city is now $375,371.
 
QV homevalue Dunedin Valuer, Aidan Young said, “Demand remains strong in the Dunedin market and there is currently a shortage of properties listed for sale which is typical for the winter months.”
 
“With supply out-stripping demand in the market, multi-offer scenarios remain common for well-presented properties in desirable locations and first home buyers remain active in the market.”
 
The strongest annual growth has been seen in the Dunedin Peninsular and coastal suburbs with values there up 19.2% in the year to June. “Meanwhile, quarterly growth has been strongest in Dunedin’s Southern and Central suburbs.”

 

QV house price index

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80 Comments

These figures seem to prove my contention that Auckland Central didn't go up as much as South, West or most of North Shore since 2007. Consequently it is less prone to a correction and indeed is still following an upward trajectory.

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Ohhh! I see what you did wrong there. You missed the first line "Average housing values are flat in Auckland"

Easy mistake, you'll get there. You just trying, I believe in you!

On a side note, I made an extra big cup of coffee this morning =)

I "studied" the QV spreadsheet linked to in the article. Consider it to be the state of the play right here and right now. Things could change but I predicted this three months ago so am feeling vindicated.

You didn't predict anything three months ago. I think you are confusing you DGZ login with your ZS login.

Honestly Zachary go look at the latest auction results and there's not that much selling above the million mark. And it's getting worse since buyers realise that there's no more capital gain to be made in Auckland. And don't look to first time buyers the certainly can't afford a million dollar home. Top end Chinese buyer are gone mate you're so screwed and you know it.

Zachary is far from being "so screwed" and you know it. It states that "Auckland prices are flattening out" it doesn't mean they are falling through the floor. This is not so screwed and we will see increases again post election.

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See, you switched accounts again.
You're never going to be able to keep track of this Zach if you keep doing that.

Agreed and central east including Remuera and Mission Bay still up 7% compared to a year ago. Yeeha

Actually, median prices in the Eastern Bays have dropped over the last 4 months between Feb 2017 to May 2017 by approximately 17.5%. [REINZ]

* Feb 2017 median sell price $1,697,500
* March 2017 median sell price $1,589,500
* April 2017 median sell price $1,543,000
* May 2017 median sell price $1,400,000

A median price drop of $297,500 over a 4 month period sounds like a lot to me.

Average Sales/CV for the Eastern Suburbs (Glendowie, St Heliers, Kohimarama, Mission Bay, Orakei)

January 131%
February 131%
March 128%
April 130%
May 139%

Waiting for the sales prices of 22,28 & 32 Allum street to be advised as they were all single site north facing homes with sea views. That will tell me more about the state of the market than double knuckle shuffle spin on stats.

I love it how you guys squabble over small sample, basic mean and median sales figures.
We each know what we want to happen, but quoting irrelevant figures like this is pointless.
At this stage I wouldn't even be hanging on the QV index too heavily, due to its biases.

Yep. Before the property boom, basic descriptive stats was not fashionable. Now its being flung around like the proverbial to support hopes and desires and every online Tom, Dick, & Harry is masquerading as an analyst but without the steady line of patter of a Mike Hosking.

22 & 28 Allum both sold on 21/6. No stats needed to understand the results when they come out.

Thanks Triple for correcting QV's data, clearly your personal data is much more reliable

Actually "my data" came directly from REINZ. [see pasted below]
So shut up and stop talking crap!

February 2017:

Zone: Eastern Suburbs 02/2017
Dwellings
(Incl Aptmts)
Apartments Sections
Number of Sales 68
Value of Sales $151,203,000
Median List Price $1,695,000
Median Sell Price $1,697,500
Median Days to Sell 31
Median Govt Valuation $1,250,000
Freehold 37
Leasehold 0
Existing 66
New 2
Bedrooms
1 Bdrm 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms 5 Bdrms +
2 13 24 19 10
Land Area (sq. m.)
Up to 400 400 - 800 800 - 1,200 Over 1200
3 17 16 7

March 2017:

Zone: Eastern Suburbs 03/2017
Dwellings
(Incl Aptmts)
Apartments Sections
Number of Sales 220
Value of Sales $434,180,038
Median List Price $1,325,000
Median Sell Price $1,589,500
Median Days to Sell 37
Median Govt Valuation $1,050,000
Freehold 106
Leasehold 1
Existing 218
New 2
Bedrooms
1 Bdrm 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms 5 Bdrms +
2 46 75 69 27
Land Area (sq. m.)
Up to 400 400 - 800 800 - 1,200 Over 1200
15 68 38 21

April 2017:

Zone: Eastern Suburbs 04/2017
Dwellings
(Incl Aptmts)
Apartments Sections
Number of Sales 122
Value of Sales $208,614,300
Median List Price $1,520,000
Median Sell Price $1,543,000
Median Days to Sell 32
Median Govt Valuation $1,050,000
Freehold 66
Leasehold 3
Existing 121
New 1
Bedrooms
1 Bdrm 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms 5 Bdrms +
3 23 38 45 13
Land Area (sq. m.)
Up to 400 400 - 800 800 - 1,200 Over 1200
14 39 20 8

May 2017:

Zone: Eastern Suburbs 05/2017
Dwellings
(Incl Aptmts)
Apartments Sections
Number of Sales 120
Value of Sales $225,240,700
Median List Price $1,247,500
Median Sell Price $1,400,000
Median Days to Sell 40
Median Govt Valuation $1,050,000
Freehold 57
Leasehold 3
Existing 120
New 0
Bedrooms
1 Bdrm 2 Bdrms 3 Bdrms 4 Bdrms 5 Bdrms +
5 20 49 26 19
Land Area (sq. m.)
Up to 400 400 - 800 800 - 1,200 Over 1200
9 22 22 14

Wow, the median sale price exceeded the median listing price in every single month. You have to conclude that Eastern suburb sellers are under pricing their properties and buyers are snapping up the bargains......

Most properties are not sold with a list price so the median list price is not particularly relevant.
The numbers that matter are the sale prices and these are clearly down a lot.

We need a sarcasm emoji. I was 'trying' to point out that you can use the figures to confirm any bias you have, no matter how far fetched the conclusion.

I will await the disclosure of the Allum St sales on 21/6 to form an opinion on the strength of the market in my (very narrow) area of interest i.e. North facing elevated homes on full sites with sea views that can't be built out.

I fully expect the suburb median to reduce as the mix of property that sells changes (in my experience lesser quality sells as volume drops). It doesn't mean my property value has changed as I compare like with like and in any case I'm an owner with no investments or intention to sell. What I'm looking for is an indication where the market is for good quality single site homes to see how my suburb will change with the UP. So far it looks like the UP is a damp squib.

The figures also show that Auckland East (1071) is down by 0.5% in the last three months. I'm waiting for the Homes.co.nz sales figures to update to get a sense on nearby single home site values with recent renovations. I couldn't give a stuff on values as I only own a home and am not moving for a long time. I just figure the more stable the single home sites are and the less attractive infill prices are the less chance there is of development.

My single home site value from homes.co.nz just went up by $50k in July, although I am in 1050 not 1071.

Mine was up as well, albeit by $25k, which pales to the 145% increase in value since purchase in the latter part of the GFC. That said the values appear to be CV multiple reliant which has no input from remodelling etc and I take them with a proverbial 'pinch of salt'

When their is boom and for any correction, first the price has to stabilize / plateau and than it drops, by what level will all depend but will drop as upward movement is limited.

Oh no! What's gonna happen with the property ladder?! Is it still a ladder or can we start calling it a debt hole?

you are now missing a word. "step" ladder

Ladders can be used to go downwards into an underground sump as well.

Apart from the top end(wealthy immigrants) I don't see house prices rising much more than inflation for several years. Supply side shortage also means prices will remain elevated.

The quick buck merchants will have to look at other asset classes.

I think it would be valid to say prices have not decreased as much as I expected in Auckland. The properties for sale on Trademe I think is a good indicator, and suggests little panic

I am picking a ten year plateau, where the prices come down over the next twelve months and then remain static. The supply side shortage will be off-set by a significant decline in land values and mortagee sales of large development sites at a price that makes development viable.

I heard a urban designer speak recently, who said that the problem with expecting supply to fix housing bubbles is that Government turns off the supply when prices start to decline. This is the risk with Auckland, that as prices decline and mortgagee sales increase, Central and Local Government submits to pressure from those seeing their values decline to cut supply and restrict development.

You are correct that other sources of data can give a more accurate current trend situation as the QV figures are based on sales over the past three month period (in this case April to May). As a consequence, in market which is consistently either rising or falling over that three month period will be under reported.

Note: Barfoots subsequent report to this post confirms this.

People go into denial and will not accept the capital loss - beg, borrow or steal; even boil up there shoe laces for dinner to hold on - it takes time to work through/fail.
The Government have exhausted quantitative easing option, in side stepping the 2008 GFC; unethical Real Estate Agents, Banks and Media have grossly manipulated that basic need, resulting in massive asset debt/bubbles, relative to the average income - the real economy.
Its not sustainable one can't live of 30% of their income, housing has been proven to be around 4 to 5 times to be affordable and be able to support the local economy. One only has to Look around Auckland to see how poverty has exploded, the poor and people struggling to make ends meet.
There is no more cheap money, wheres its going to come from - wealthy foreigners? What remains is risk - increase in interest rates, unemployment or housing supply; even natural disasters tsunami, earthquake, eruption.
The fact is the Government HAS to bring housing back to affordable levels relative to incomes in order for healthy society to function as the economic cost is far worse than a price correction.
House construction is not exclusive product - more can be built easily, sometimes rules/Acts around property ownership have to be changed for the few to meet the many.

One wonders whether the Government's recent increase in the Landlord Accommodation Supplement, on top of the other landlord subsidies, will be enough to perk prices up again come spring.

The rental return on Auckland property is about 4% and mortgage rates are 5% - 6%, so probably not.

If you only read this blog, you'd think Auckland house prices were falling through the floor - on the verge of collapsing. This is a meeting place for gloom and doom merchants - their sole agenda being to talk the market down.

But, in fact, the statistics show that Auckland is not doing too badly at all, in the 2017 post-boom era. As noted above, in some localities prices are still rising.

As I've said before, there's an underlying fortitude in the Auckland housing market. It's far more resilient than certain people here are willing to acknowledge. That's largely because of demographics: there's a huge unmet demand for houses in Auckland - and it's growing by the day.

After a flat period in the immediate short-term, Auckland house prices are bound to rise again.

I think you might be tarring everyone with the same brush there. Some of us bought heavy in 2009-11 and spent the last few years de-leveraging rather than negatively gearing. For us it now time to put our buying hats back on. You know “blood on the streets” and all that jazz.

Agreed, and well put.
the proof is in the QV and other reports, Auckland is heading back to its NORMAL 5% annual rate rise ... Doom and Gloomers will eat their hats soon ... October is only few sleeps away ....

I think 5% increase is dream world. It is a speculative bubble and while I think it will slowly deflate rather than burst any house you buy today will be worth less in 12 months time. It is not being a doom-merchant, just recognising that prices don't always go up.

Auckland 5% is a Fact supported by History - it is the Normal average RE price appreciation in Auckland .... Nothing happened so far to counter this Natural Phenomenon !!
Rangitoto is still intact, we had no earthquakes , the economy is looking good, supply outstrips demand by miles, most immigrants are landing in Auckland and want a part of the international city , we have a Smart council choking all the land release and going snail pace in releasing permits, charging an arm and a leg for new building contributions and water connections etc ... why would prices go down ??

These Tangible Facts are undeniable and do not change overnight ... Next October will show us all where the Auckland RE market is going ...
I think everyone is picking the set of data ( and playing to the tune of RBNZ) to avoid hiking interest rates - this party is feeling good, and everyone is enjoying it including smart FHBs.
Better make the best of it before the Last Call.

More dreamworld. The growth was not driven by immigration - else rentals would have gone up (do you think the immigrants are living in cars waiting to purchase?). What has happened is that prices have gone up by speculation of further increases (including overseas investors that rode the wave while it was happening). Now the Auckland economy can't handle further increases without losing a lot of industry (including overseas students). The cost of building a house is still only $300,000 and more land is becoming available. Why would houses go up faster than inflation.

with respect, You have completely missed my point - immigration started since 1994 , I suggest you revisit some of that data published here by D Chaston

Did you ever hear the phrase - past returns are not indicative of future performance? The last forty years are not a steady state representation of the economic conditions that we will see in the future. Over that times we've gone from rationed credit and high interest rates to freely available credit and low interest rates. Since interest rates won't get lower (likely will go higher from today) and credit won't get any freer (may get tighter if DTIs ever come in), the future is likely to look different to the past. Whereas the past had a tailwind for property from the changes I mentioned, the future will either have a headwind or a neutral bias. Therefore, if you accept this logic, which lets face it you probably won't, future returns are likely to be lower. Which doesn't prove the market will crash but does suggest your 5% figure is too high. I suggest the average increase in Auckland over the next 20 years will be 2.5% (wage in inflation) but I think the average increase over the next eight years will be 0% because the excesses of the last ten years need to be worked out before increases can resume.

.

I Love it that Eco Bird and tothepoint are the same person (ask me how I know to tothepoint?) and he/she replies and congratulates him/herself... as bad as Zach/DGZ.

Thank goodness I'm now no longer tothepoint lol
Still need to solve the ZS/DGZ double identity issue.

I’ve been giving this phenomenon a lot of thought lately and I have worked out that it is all the fault of the zeitgeist which is now my favorite concept. If you wake up one morning and a thought pops into your head, maybe a thought you never had before, you make think it is an original thought, however this is incredibly unlikely because you are likely not that special and not the clever-clogs you think you are. Chances are that you are not the only one. Indeed you can be pretty sure that someone else is having the exact same thought, maybe not at exactly the same time, maybe a bit earlier or a bit later. This is because thoughts emanate from the zeitgeist and not your own brain. Your own brain is like a reflector or concentrator inextricably linked into the zeitgeist. Thus we have people making the mistake that certain commenters are one and the same person. They are in a way but not in the way they think for we are all just channelling the same zeitgeist. I’m sure nymad will have something wise to say about this.

Or you could just use one login.

Zachary maybe we were twins at some stage during one of our previous lives?

Double-GZ, we are just more in tune with the process that generates ideas, on the same frequency, as it were, of an idea whose time has arrived. Some people are more in tune with the zeitgeist than others. Some would describe this as ‘nonsense’. Sadly old age reduces the quality of tuning which is why creativity declines and we observe repetitive comments.

Zeitgeist it is ;-)

@Zach, Why aren't you commenting on the other property article out today. You know the one that basically contradicts everything you been saying for the last few months "allegedly".

Here's the link;
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/88635/barfoot-thompsons-median-sellin...

Come on it will be fun!

We all live in the same environment absorbing the same news sources. In this case we are all sad bastards hanging out on the same forum repeating the same arguments every three days. It must be a hoot to moderate. Anyway, given this commonality it is no surprise that the same ideas occur, often recycled when we forget the influence of another member of the same community. Zach/DGZ assuming you are different people, have you met?

Just pick one login and use that, job done!
No need to thanks required. Always happy to help =)

Oh wait, how about me?? - Am i allowed to use one login too?? lol, lol, lol

I admire the saying I heard when young: : "Simple things please simple minds" .. it seems to be true!

the simple thing is that some folks here cannot accept that there could be two or more people agreeing on simple facts and a certain logic, ... the other simple thing is that we do not need multi logins, it's not a polling station!, or is it?

Was that answer Simple enough??

Of course you can! =)

no one will care anyway

lol .. that's a good one ....thank you for making my day ...:)

Im surprised tothepoint is still making comments after getting so embarrassingly exposed as the lier & fraud they are in recent threads

After a flat period in the immediate short-term, Auckland house prices are bound to rise again.

Yeah, but you know that because you formulate policy in the social sciences.

Hi J.C.

Indeed, SOCIAL SCIENCES includes subjects such as ECONOMICS, ECONOMETRICS, DEMOGRAPHY and SOCIAL STATISTICS.

All are relevant (and fundamental) to the analysis housing markets. Any educated person would know that.

Interesting, I assumed you were in sociology...Economics without maths, as some call it.

But, in fact, the statistics show that Auckland is not doing too badly at all, in the 2017 post-boom era.

2017 is not a "post-boom era", where do you get that idea from? What statistics show 2017 is post-boom?

The boom is still going in Australia, Canada, provincial NZ, west coast America. Almost all the places with a combo of low domestic interest rates and Chinese direct investment are still booming upwards.

2017 is still a boom year for property.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-houseprices-idUSKBN1...
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21723418-demand-safe-assets-emerg...

The soonest credible prediction I've seen of this property boom ending is late 2018 and that one was doom-laden downside heavy. Most predictions I've read on the end of the current boom run from 2020 to 2025.

The majority of people on this site don't want to hear that mate. What I find interesting is the mental approach of renters vs home owners. The funny thing is you don't get the home owners on here complaining but you get the renters going on about how good financially renting is but complaining about the price of houses in the same breathe.

I believe it's a little too early for the "naysayers" on this site to start crowing. The Auckland market remains stubbornly strong, with supply restrictions and strong immigration continuing to be factors. The homes in genuinely desirable areas remain in demand.
Down here in the South, we are pleasantly surprised with continuing growth in the Southern Lakes and Dunedin where our portfolio is based. While we have not bought with capital gain in mind, we couldn't resist cashing in by selling a property at 7% rental return (which is too low for us) on the sale price, which attracted strong interest. There are still plenty of good opportunities in Dunedin especially, but with our buying hat on, we are having to move fast and decisively to get deals done.
Looking ahead, I maintain not much will be happening until post election, and whoever gets to pull the levers, I hope they make informed decisions, not just crowd pleasing ones.

I'd say Auckland has reached a Bon Jovi moment and is currently living on a prayer. The y/y and month/month price changes are almost meaningless because the volumes are so thin. If vendors lose confidence and stampede for the exits then there wont be enough Chinese buyers to keep the prices up, certainly not in the less desirable suburbs. Banks will then take countermeasures and we'll know what a Minsky moment looks like. Just remember it's the National government that delivered us to this point!

Oh really? ... So "The y/y and month/month price changes are almost meaningless" eh??
So what is meaningful? ... the wishful thinking of a crash happening soon? or turn everything into politics to explain misreading and poor market analysis ??
The report numbers are derived from SALES ... and that proves that buyers and sellers have agreed on higher / lower prices in any given area.
The volume is low because it is winter and most importantly because buyers are confused about the actual CURRENT valuations.. that is why there are crowded auctions and no sales -- people are there to have a feel of the market price - most successful deals are done after the auction by private treaty ( if sellers agree)
Let's wait a bit longer ...October is not far away ...!

So what is meaningful...

Foreign buyers
Foreign buyers
Foreign buyers
..
..
Ability of domestic credit to fund price growth
Health of the economy.
Price to earnings ratio (rental yields)
Price to income ratio (nz by some measures has the most overpriced houses on the planet)
Interest rates and projected interest rates
volume of sales
sentiment

Agree on all points.

Tipping point...? Perhaps it will take a NZF or Labour govt or part govt to slam the door on overseas speculation and immigration to really panic the smug property bulls. Suspect there are way more people pissed pff at the ponzi than there are with the smug superior attitude. Get your pen ready and get your arse down to vote. This is the crux of this election.

Now that house values are finally softening, FHBs can't get a look in because they can't get finance. More supply is good but futile if the government/RB continue to preside over what are totally dysfunctional property and finance markets.

It is amusing when the property bulls, so many with 'portfolios' bash down the 'naysayers' at the rate of 3 to 1 comments, and then argue that this website is infested by doom and gloomers. When you live inside a bubble it is difficult always to discern reality. What joy will Barfoots bring this morning.

@Cowpat I can't argue with you because you are my neighbour and we live inside the Remuera bubble as you call it. Hope you enjoyed the Remuera Residents AGM last night ;-)

The market is still up 8% year on year to June, the difference is we are no longer seeing figures like 25% year on year. Its got a long way to go before anyone needs to panic. Like I said its just going to plateau for a few years with negligible gains and even some falls if you don't look after your house. Too many factors holding the prices up to the existing levels, even without the investors or those just parking their money in housing. Until immigration gets slashed, the cost of building gets addressed and the number of new builds significantly increases the change is going to be slow. Also remember that as housing spreads outwards, the closer you are to the CBD the more valuable your house is going to get.

Problem is the "market" is a bit all encompassing.

Some areas ain't doing so great.

From Barfoots report today - Auckland North Shore - June 2016 median $839,500 - June 2017 median $840,000

That's zero gain YOY with a sh!t-ton of real debt exposed to upward trending interest rates and tightening credit for the next "greater fool" to use if you're a specvestor.....

You don't care about the gains in one year when your in the game for the next 20 years plus. Essentially your house is still going to double in price over the term of your mortgage so you simply don't care if it goes flat for a year or even 2 or 3 years..

I reviewed this report and also track Homes.co.nz and they are hugely contradicting. Values in Tauranga seem to have dropped significantly in the past few months on homes.co.nz in Tauranga while this report says they increased.

I think the homes.co.nz values for Tauranga are very unreliable. I get the impression that they don't put nearly as much resourcing there as they do in Auckland. Their estimates for Auckland property track RIENZ and QV data quite closely. Bizarrely their estimates for some properties in Papamoa Beach have dropped $100k + in 2 months, which I take with a grain of salt. Maybe they're trying to correct previous valuations that were much too high, not sure.

Did anyone saw TV3 today morning.

Advising arrogantly (One of the three) and in a way confirming that all those who do not have house should forget about owning one.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/07/mark-richardson-s-blunt-advi...

How correct. Voted for National and the result is for all to see after 9 years. We are responsible for this bluntness (arrogance) for voting National. Definitely need change.

Hopefully people will realize and vote sensibly, young and old.

Can't you read that Auckland house prices are already coming down, as reported by both QV and B&T this morning?

:) it's funny that I had this conversation with few people lately and they all said that "We need change!" when I ask Why? - they just seem to get lost for words or come up with something silly like "they have been there long enough" or "House prices are too high or the poor FHBs and the homeless" ...

Some people just seem to be repeating Obama's slogan of "Change" when he first ran for office and really nothing changed after his 8 years at the helm -- the best change he did was ObamaCare ...which is now in shambles ... Go figure.

Perhaps this reflects on the calibre of people you are talking to. People I've spoken to about it are quite clear on their reasons, be they environmental, housing, immigration, child poverty or drugs policy related. Plenty of reasons to think National haven't been up to standard.

That's funny Eco bird I spoke to some people to about the election, most said the country doesn't need change, unbelievable I said what you said "why" , stupidity they said 3 years wasn't enough, my house needed to go up more and I need fhb to rent my houses , I was asking my mates in Remuera, who were you talking to,

Last week I happened to be on a dinner with a successful business owner, a contracting supervisor and few others of various professionals. The contractor wanted to help his 3 kids to buy their own homes and was blindly complaining about the Gov for getting us here so he needed change so that his kids ( all single in their 30s with no deposit and average jobs) can buy houses in Blockhouse Bay !!! the business owner who is well off could not find a reason for change, he just said Labour is known for making things better !! the others thought that the NATs have been there too long and its time to give the others a go ... like it is my turn to have a ride!! none of the other participants could say what particular policy would benefit us more if change happens.

Friend known for his Greeny views and support said he will vote for the Greens, I asked why, he said because when they get in power they will have more say on issues related to the environment ... cool, so whether that is effective or not is yet to be seen ... but seems that a lot of people will vote on some single or very narrow issues without too much consideration of the general position of the party they are voting for...so just like a change!!

BTW, This is not a political opinion , I am just conveying what I saw and happened.

"business owner who is well off could not find a reason for change, he just said Labour is known for making things better"

Ive rarely met someone who is a business owner and one that is fairly well off not have a political reason. They are normally smart people and have opinions. An easy reason for a business person to vote for a party is which party advocates less corporation tax. The business owner you talked to may have different reasons for voting labour. By the sounds of the conversation it could be immigration and house prices, at a guess.

So Im pretty sure they may not be willing to divulge stuff like that. I avoid political conversations with people, especially friends and people I dont really know. You can get into a lot of unneccessary arguments. Maybe they didnt want to argue.

I have a friend who is a business owner and he attacks anyone voting for labour as left leaning hippies. I explained to him he may lose friends as some people have very emotional connections with who they vote for. Its personal and people have different personal circumstances, plus its condescending.

I think leave the politics to the vote and talk about sports instead, unless your on social media and no one knows who you are.