Sales achieved on just over a third at B&T's latest auctions

Property

Sales remain sluggish in west Auckland and on the North Shore at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

28th Nov 17, 3:11pm by Greg Ninness

Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms remain busy in the lead up to Christmas, with the company marketing 229 homes for sale by auction last week, up slightly from the 214 scheduled for auction the previous week.

The sales clearance rate was also marginally higher, with sales achieved on 82 properties last week, giving an overall sales rate of 36%, slightly up from the previous week's 32% clearance rate.

On-site auctions continued to perform well, achieving a 47% clearance rate last week, although that was down slightly on the 57% clearance rate the week before.

And results at the Manukau auction perked back up, with a sales clearance rate of 40% last week compared to just 21% the previous week.

The North Shore auctions remain a bit on the quiet side with a clearance rate of 30% last week (see table below).

Sales rates for west Auckland properties are also low, with just a quarter of the properties achieving sales at Barfoot's auction on 24 November, where most of the properties offered were from traditionally popular west Auckland suburbs such as Te Atatu, Glendene, Ranui, Henderson, Helensville and Massey.

The individual results for the properties auctioned are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

If you are interested in commercial property, check out the latest sales results on our Commercial Property Sales page.

**Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 20-26 November 2017**
Date	Location	Sold*	Not sold*	Total	% Sold
20-26 November	On site	8	9	17	47%
21 November	Manukau	17	26	43	40%
21 November	Shortland St, CBD.	5	7	12	42%
22 November	Shortland St, CBD.	17	28	45	38%
22 November	Pukekohe	3	3	6	50%
23 November	Shortland St, CBD.	9	18	27	33%
23 November	Kerikeri	1	0	1	100%
23 November	North Shore	14	32	46	30%
24 November	Shortland St, CBD.	8	24	32	25%
Total	All locations	82	147	229	36%
*Sold includes properties sold under the hammer or by 5pm the following day. Unsold includes properties that remained unsold after 5pm the day after the auction, plus those that had their auction postponed or were withdrawn from auction.

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39 Comments

by john wheeler | 28th Nov 17, 3:34pm 1511836453

Crash is coming !

by pin3cone | 28th Nov 17, 3:45pm 1511837132

Oh stop it John. You're as bad as TTP trying to be the first to leave an over-confident and completely biased comment on any article that hints at your desired housing market trajectory.

Sales being sluggish does not mean there is a crash coming. It means there is a gap between what buyers and sellers are expecting to pay or receive.

by john wheeler | 28th Nov 17, 3:50pm 1511837407

Sorry pin3cone. I did comment to fast without being more specific.

2018 - THE YEAR OF THE CRASH !!!!!!

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 3:54pm 1511837691

Hi John Wheeler,

I note that you keep having to move the year out......

Never mind - I quite enjoy the amusement.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 28th Nov 17, 4:20pm 1511839244

lol! your prediction moved by seven years!

by john wheeler | 28th Nov 17, 4:01pm 1511838104

Tothepoint - How many years have i been here ? More fake news . Toothpoint, Robert Redford, Yvil, Double -GZ, Zachary Smith , Eco Bird, all the same Real Estate Agent trying to manipulate the forum.
You can keep trying to rearrange the deck cheers on the Titanic : BUT THE SHIP IS STILL SINKING.

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 4:29pm 1511839755

Hi Johnny-come-lately Wheeler,

This time next year, you'll be saying, "2019 - the year of the crash".

Mark my words.

TTP

by CJ099 | 28th Nov 17, 8:33pm 1511854417

Actually John Wheeler is right we're likely to see the Auckland crash to at least be acknowledged by next year, I would say mid to late 2018. And here's why I'll break it down for you:-

1) It usually takes two years for a property crash to take effect (I have mentioned this before).

2) The market change is recognizable in our case it's directly related to China clamping down on capital outflows which started in January 2017, our market (And a few others) has been in dramatic decline since then.

3) Followed by the Ozzy banks cutting off lending to local Speculative Investors, due to then lack of flowing capital from top end foreign buyers.

Here's some numbers to prove where we are now "pre-crash":-

From today's article: "Median price in central Auckland has had an even bigger fall, dropping from its March peak of $1,050,000 to $850,000 in October, a decline of exactly $200,000, suggesting the weakness in the central Auckland suburbs is not confined to the apartment market".

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/91100/lower-house-prices-see-centra…

That's a big drop in property prices, almost 20% which technically is a crash but hasn't expanded out to the rest of Auckland so we can't call it a crash, yet.

But then it's not the lower cost property owners that should be worried. It's the paper millionaires based in the central city areas who are at the greatest risk of "Negative Equity". Especially the ones who have borrowed against their main property asset to free up equity for their children on an further investment. Things could start to unfold rather quickly for them.

by Ex Expat | 28th Nov 17, 4:32pm 1511839928

Who is there to manipulate? Certainly not the bored retirees and expats in the US and Australia that post here on a daily basis with the same message ad nauseum, salivating over the thought of a thumbs up from their chosen tribe.

by NorthernLights | 28th Nov 17, 6:04pm 1511845487

Ex patty cake
I come here to fall asleep
It’s 1am
Nite nite

by ex socialist | 28th Nov 17, 3:42pm 1511836958

Comparing the sale values at auction often shows a 10% discounts to the latest CV's,
Penny Ave $883 cf with $950k CV;
9 Richfield cres $881k cf $970 CV
and although the sale of 854 Manuka Rd is close to its CV it is only fractionally above its 2015 sale price.
It will be interesting to see what QV report in a few days time on the price trends given their data is often lagged by two months.

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 4:31pm 1511839917

Hi ex socialist,

That's a huge sample - all of two properties.

No doubt you spent hours finding them......

TTP

by Houses Overpriced | 28th Nov 17, 5:22pm 1511842979

stop being negative, when ZS comes up with his analysis of properties sold, no one shoots him down for that

by Zachary Smith | 28th Nov 17, 5:40pm 1511844053

Well I do get shot down a little. Even I would balk at drawing any conclusion from just two examples and while my sample size is small they do add up to hundreds over time. I'm looking at the trend and also looking out for what look to be bargain buys.

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 5:57pm 1511845066

Hi Houses Overpriced,

With all due respect, Zachary is far more sophisticated in his approach to reporting sales/prices/trends.

Further, where there are particular issues, he highlights them.

Many here appreciate the integrity of Zachary's contributions.

TTP

by ex socialist | 28th Nov 17, 6:00pm 1511845202

You are right it is not comprehensive and I am not extrapolating. However, if I am looking up the CV's why not share them.
And if I was extrapolating a trend it would be to say that: generally the new CV appear to be a good match; that there is more downside appearing in the later auctions; and that we have seen an easing rather than a crash. However, I am watching the listings on Trademe with interest and see them growing; think that there is a lot of agents who have gone for months without a sale who will be not looking forward to the Christmas shut-down.

I also notice the high proportion of vacant sites (around 2,000) on trademe and think that a lot of land bankers should start to be worried about now.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Nov 17, 7:33pm 1511850805

True, why not share them, I agree.

by NorthernLights | 28th Nov 17, 6:07pm 1511845645

TTP
It’s 6Pm down there
Shouldn’t you be walking the dog

by xingmowang | 28th Nov 17, 4:01pm 1511838102

The current government appears to be the friend of first home buyers. But do not fool yourself.

Grant Robertson, and I am sure the government as well, is fearful of a slow growth in housing market, let along any crashes. Otherwise, why did he allude to the governor of RBNZ of removing loan-to-value ratios (LVRs)?

by sharetrader | 28th Nov 17, 4:57pm 1511841438

that is such a wrong signal in a slow down to remove LVR's
are they worried and have seen data that something is wrong?
we have banks restating capital amounts (asb today)
so the premise of installing the LVR's ( to make sure banks are sound) is more apt in a slowdown than a rising market

by NorthernLights | 28th Nov 17, 6:12pm 1511845927

ChangMy
Labour under Clarkkk sat back happily watching house prices escalate but nothing like what National did
NZ was the last country to do anything to curb mass property speculation and without a CGT or decent rate/property taxation is way behind the real world

by Robert Redford | 28th Nov 17, 5:02pm 1511841751

Get in there while you can at the Barfoot give away rooms. Rent out the house and wait for the next cycle.

by gingerninja | 28th Nov 17, 7:44pm 1511851445

HAHAHHAHA

by Zachary Smith | 28th Nov 17, 5:31pm 1511843477

Checking the latest houses that sold since I did it last time. Only ten and only one over a million. Total sales of 8.404M with a 2017 RV of 8.425M giving an average of 0.25% below RV.
Remarkably close to the council RV estimates. Six sold above RV and four sold below RV.
I see a few more there now, will update the figures soon..

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 6:10pm 1511845816

Thanks Zachary,

Your methodical approach is much appreciated.

A number of people here have been suggesting that selling prices would fall well below the new 2017 RV's.....

All of the legitimate evidence that I've seen, however, suggests that's not the case. (Of course, one can point to occasional examples of selling prices below RV - but that does not amount to legitimate evidence.)

TTP

by NorthernLights | 28th Nov 17, 6:18pm 1511846297

So true TTP Zachs “statistical analysis “ ranks up there with Grand Theft Auto

by custard | 28th Nov 17, 6:44pm 1511847860

No matter what your motive, I don’t think a true “crash” is something should hoped for (and really, as if simply hoping for something makes any difference at all) – for those truly wishing for some form of gratuitous “told you so” moment – the initial sweet taste of schadenfreude will quickly turn out to be a very bitter pill indeed.

by swapacrate | 29th Nov 17, 1:56am 1511873791

Its not a "I told you so moment".

Its about affordable homes for FHB and our children. Its about affordable homes for average income earners.

The last 4-5 years have taken housing to levels that are unaffordable for most. Hopefully house prices reset to average household incomes, and the property can increase along with incomes.

I dont understand why people do not want most people to be home owners.

by Zachary Smith | 28th Nov 17, 7:31pm 1511850695

Okay, seven more properties, now 17, with a total of 17.043M in sales with an RV of 16.625M giving price over RV of 2.51%. If I take out the best performer and the worst performer I get 1.77% above RV.
10 out of 17 sell above 2017 RV.
Again very close to the new valuations.

by tothepoint - d… | 28th Nov 17, 8:12pm 1511853160

Thanks again, Zachary.

That's useful information - although the gloom and doom merchants will be aggrieved.

TTP

by Tkore | 28th Nov 17, 8:14pm 1511853279

An investor paid $1,275,000 for a home in Dec'16. Failed to reach the reserve at auction Oct'17. Listed and advertised as a Waterview home for PBN private sale. The vendor must be operating with a GPS a few degrees out. The house and property is actually in Avondale. Or as the RE's prefer Avondale heights. The new July RV for this property is $790,000. Will the depreciated value of any loss on this property be tax deductible? I don't think so.

by CJ099 | 28th Nov 17, 9:22pm 1511857326

It's incredible how shoddy a lot of NZ property is even in the expensive areas as recent builds. I bet they still expect a million plus for it??: https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auctio…

by custard | 28th Nov 17, 9:17pm 1511857061

Zachary – I do like your style and content of your posts – having followed your and others comments / observations for some time.
Frequently a daily offering of research followed by subsequent praise or brickbats from the masses seems to be the norm of the day.
All very well to review what has happened as regards sales numbers and values etc. Interesting to be sure, but a somewhat lagging indicator nonetheless. A little more salivating perhaps to consider what the market may serve up in the future. Yes, today’s news may be an indicator, but only one of many that may give us a glimpse into the future.
Stepping back a little – and a question:
Ultimately, is this market behaving “logically” from a long term perspective – or are short term influences still flowing through and creating distortions that are yet to be purged?
I really don’t know the answer – however I do tend towards the latter.

by Zachary Smith | 29th Nov 17, 6:25am 1511889941

Custard, thanks for the feedback. These days I generally try to contribute in a positive way and minimize any slanging matches. I think that the property market is behaving logically in the context of history, culture, technology, migration flows and the current global economy. Obviously New Zealand and its main centres are desirable places to live for many of the world's people. This desirability has only increased over the years and desirability, otherwise known as location, is the key factor when buying property. Other places around the world are desirable too but there are a lot of people in the world and a lot of money in the world. If Reykjavík in Iceland can be a hot property market Auckland can be even more so. All of the Nordic and Anglo heritage nations are particularly desirable locations, the Anglo ones especially because of the usefulness of being English speaking and the ease with which diverse people can settle in and make a living while having many choices about where to live later on. So much better than anywhere else on the planet.

by Robert Redford | 29th Nov 17, 11:33am 1511908436

New Zealand is a desirable place to live we should be proud of our country. If someone pays a high price for a house that should be celebrated by the country without jealous motive. Embrace the love of New Zealand.

by RickStrauss | 29th Nov 17, 11:45am 1511909143

New Zealand has addressed shortages of housing before. The country has a long history of government efforts to help Kiwis get into homes - across most of the 20th century, in fact. They also even used land tax to break up land banking by foreign speculators, to allow Kiwis access to homes and land.

It's time for the Boomer generation to acknowledge what was passed to them and how housing was made affordable for them, and that it's not simply an investment vehicle that should be hawked off to as many foreign investors as possible with no regard for Kiwis. At least - not without addressing the issues this causes in terms of the housing crisis and the need for more building activity, perhaps requiring a return to the previous century's efforts to get Kiwis into homes.

Quite why so many Boomers seem to think it's fine for them to have benefited from the efforts of previous generations but not pass things on in a reasonable state is strange. Especially when they still expect young Kiwis to hand over their hard-earned wages to Boomers, $20,000 plus per year as soon as they hit 65.

Embrace the love of New Zealand. Leave a reasonable legacy. Stop being selfish and living off preceding and succeeding generations without contributing back. The efforts to create affordable housing should be celebrated without jealous motive.

by Ex Expat | 29th Nov 17, 12:16pm 1511910994

The Party you presumably voted for is in power. If so, they clearly have a desire to address the low end affordability issue and the ability to effect their policies. That is your vector for change. They will be judged on the outcomes by all generations.

Personally, I just see more of the same for the next few years. But then as a lifelong National Party voter and now Party Member I would say that.

by RickStrauss | 29th Nov 17, 12:21pm 1511911299

Perhaps surprisingly, I've never voted for Labour, and in fact I've voted National most of my life - though not the last two elections as I've not found them to have been honest and reasonable on the housing crisis.

I think it'll take a long time to make housing about homes for Kiwis as it was when the Boomers were entering the market, but I hope for the sake of young Kiwis progress is made.

by BadRobot | 29th Nov 17, 6:49pm 1511934592

Concentrating on only the houses that were sold can give a misleading impression of where the market is situated. As only @ 1/3rd of proprieties were sold it would be interesting to see a comparison of highest bid against RV/CV as well for those properties that failed to sell.