QV says average house values are virtually flat in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch

QV says average house values are virtually flat in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch

The days of capital gains on residential property may be drawing to a close in the main centres, with average property values flat lining in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch, according to the latest figures from Quotable Value (QV).

QV's House Price Index for May shows that the average residential property value in Auckland was $1,054 729, up just 1% compared to a year ago and up just 0.1% compared to three months earlier.

And average values in some parts of the city are now below where they were 12 months ago, although the declines aren't huge, with values in Rodney down 0.1%, Manukau down 0.2%, and Franklin down 0.5%, while values are unchanged from 12 months ago in Waitakere.

In other parts of the city such as the North Shore, Central Auckland and Papakura where property values are still up modestly compared to where they were 12 months ago, values have either declined or are unchanged from where they were three months ago.

Similar trends are also evident in other main centres including Wellington, where average property values remain 4.3% higher than they were 12 months ago but are down 1.1% compared to three months ago.

In Christchurch average values are unchanged from 12 months ago.

Quarterly value growth across Auckland and the Wellington Region has come virtually to a standstill," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"With a lower expectation of capital gains, particularly in Auckland, we're seeing people show less urgency when it comes to selling or buying property.

"Value growth across the other regional centres of Hamilton, Tauranga and Christchurch remains flat," he said.

However Dunedin remains a hot spot, with average property values in the southern city up 9.4% in the last 12 months and up 4% in the last three months.

"Dunedin is the only main centre to buck the trend," Nagel said.

"Entry level properties [in Dunedin] remain comparatively low and well located properties continue to demand high prices."

But by and large, double digit annual percentage growth is now mostly limited to some smaller provincial centres such as Kawerau +12.8%, Opotiki +11.3%, Gisborne +10.1%, Ruapehu +16.6%, Whanganui +12.1%, Masterton +13.9% and Carterton +17.3%. But even in some of these locations, value growth over the last three months suggests the rate of growth is slowing.

The table below shows the average property values for all districts, and their percentage change over three months and 12 months.

QV House Price Index - May 2018

Territorial authority

Average current value 12 month change% 3 month change %
Auckland Region            1,054,729 1.0% 0.1%
Wellington Region               633,759 4.3% -1.1%
Main Urban Areas               794,080 6.1% 0.7%
Total New Zealand Nationwide               677,996 6.9% 0.8%
Far North 423,715 5.1% -0.9%
Whangarei 524,268 8.5% 2.7%
Kaipara 534,005 3.8% 5.1%
Auckland - Rodney 959,555 -0.1% 0.9%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 938,303 0.9% 0.8%
Rodney - North 981,881 -1.2% 0.9%
Auckland - North Shore 1,229,088 2.6% -0.2%
North Shore - Coastal 1,405,224 2.6% -0.5%
North Shore - Onewa 973,519 2.1% 0.1%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,219,645 3.0% 0.5%
Auckland - Waitakere 826,087 0.0% 0.1%
Auckland - City 1,245,086 1.9% 0.5%
Auckland City - Central 1,104,053 2.7% 2.6%
Auckland_City - East 1,561,019 2.4% -0.4%
Auckland City - South 1,099,787 0.3% 0.4%
Auckland City - Islands 1,154,849 7.5% -2.3%
Auckland - Manukau 900,190 -0.2% -0.3%
Manukau - East 1,156,963 -1.0% 0.1%
Manukau - Central 693,683 1.4% -1.1%
Manukau - North West 776,684 0.3% -0.3%
Auckland - Papakura 702,157 2.7% 0.0%
Auckland - Franklin 667,803 -0.5% -0.9%
Thames Coromandel 736,637 3.6% 3.4%
Hauraki 384,682 -2.4% -0.5%
Waikato 483,179 8.8% 2.4%
Matamata Piako 422,258 1.6% -3.0%
Hamilton 553,873 3.1% 1.0%
Hamilton - North East 704,035 3.7% 1.3%
Hamilton - Central & North West 509,605 1.4% 2.2%
Hamilton - South East 504,687 3.8% 0.8%
Hamilton - South West 487,092 2.1% -1.0%
Waipa 539,768 6.5% 1.3%
Otorohanga 293,627 11.5% -0.9%
South Waikato 222,415 10.5% -1.5%
Waitomo 191,364 8.5% -5.5%
Taupo 470,293 6.7% 0.7%
Western BOP 633,569 5.2% 1.8%
Tauranga 700,744 2.6% -0.9%
Rotorua 422,965 7.2% 1.3%
Whakatane 427,502 7.6% 2.2%
Kawerau 197,508 12.8% 3.9%
Opotiki 319,010 11.3% 2.9%
Gisborne 309,961 10.1% 2.7%
Wairoa 176,815 5.1% 11.5%
Hastings 458,077 10.7% 1.4%
Napier 507,441 16.3% 3.9%
Central Hawkes Bay 309,524 16.2% -2.3%
New Plymouth 447,177 6.5% 1.7%
Stratford 264,548 12.2% 5.2%
South Taranaki 215,059 8.0% -1.6%
Ruapehu 189,251 16.6% 5.5%
Whanganui 249,327 12.1% 5.0%
Rangitikei 203,426 12.5% 5.5%
Manawatu 335,745 9.5% 4.0%
Palmerston North 388,332 8.7% 2.1%
Tararua 196,722 12.9% 6.3%
Horowhenua 311,031 14.4% 2.7%
Kapiti Coast 556,999 11.1% 1.9%
Porirua 551,684 8.3% 0.9%
Upper Hutt 488,642 8.6% 2.9%
Hutt 533,901 5.6% 1.4%
Wellington 754,924 3.8% -1.2%
Wellington - Central & South 752,778 3.3% -1.3%
Wellington - East 808,863 2.8% -1.6%
Wellington - North 678,561 5.1% -1.2%
Wellington - West 875,114 3.9% -0.4%
Masterton 340,696 13.9% 1.3%
Carterton 392,008 17.3% 5.0%
South Wairarapa 474,646 20.3% 2.5%
Tasman 569,064 6.4% 0.6%
Nelson 560,473 6.2% -1.3%
Marlborough 457,596 5.4% 0.8%
Kaikoura 378,870 -9.2% -15.3%
Buller 188,904 2.3% 2.2%
Grey 215,399 0.2% 1.8%
Westland 244,128 -1.0% 2.9%
Hurunui 383,912 1.9% -0.4%
Waimakariri 439,912 -0.1% 0.3%
Christchurch 495,148 0.0% 0.1%
Christchurch - East 371,653 -0.1% 0.0%
Christchurch - Hills 668,323 1.4% -0.2%
Christchurch - Central & North 583,569 -0.2% 0.0%
Christchurch - Southwest 474,128 -0.4% 0.3%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 513,453 4.0% 0.3%
Selwyn 549,691 0.6% -0.1%
Ashburton 354,152 0.8% 1.0%
Timaru 357,079 4.5% 0.3%
MacKenzie 516,214 8.7% -3.6%
Waimate 243,622 9.4% 4.4%
Waitaki 306,436 12.9% 1.5%
Central Otago 486,358 8.0% 2.1%
Queenstown Lakes 1,153,155 9.6% 3.5%
Dunedin 408,827 9.4% 4.0%
Dunedin - Central & North 426,715 10.0% 4.8%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 378,031 8.5% 4.8%
Dunedin - South 390,162 10.3% 4.5%
Dunedin - Taieri 418,468 8.2% 2.5%
Clutha 206,881 9.0% -3.2%
Southland 262,261 3.1% -7.5%
Gore 225,092 6.7% 1.5%
Invercargill 264,630 8.8% 1.8%

QV house price index

Select chart tabs »

The 'Index' chart will be drawn here.
Source: QV
The '% change year on year' chart will be drawn here.
Source: QV

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.


Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

Barfoot and Thompson say the median Auckland home price has fallen 80K since a year ago. Average price has fallen 50k from a year ago. https://www.interest.co.nz/property/94143/sales-activity-was-barfoot-tho...

It's important to wade through the terminology used.

Median vs average.

Index vs actuals.

If you're not comparing like for like you can always skew statistics to sing your bias.

and 'Value' v's 'Price' which has been discussed lower down this thread.

Remember that the data bases differ.
B&T and NZREI data is for the month's sales (and forB&T and NZREI sales only).
QV figures are based on a three month period of sales (and for all sales both NZREI and private).
Being based on monthly data, B&T and NZREI will show more clearly a change in trend (e.g. rate of decline) whereas the QV data based on a three month period will have a delay in identifying any change in a trend or its rate.
In this case, B&T figures were for May only, so had the full effect of winter cooling. QV are for March (spring bouyancy) through to May (winter cooling?) so any effect of winter cooling is muted somewhat.

That's a fall 'Auckland' of 8.9%.. Amazing difference in statistics ... Do Barfoot and Thompson specialise is any particular sector of the market (top/middle or bottom) that could be getting hammered more than these QV figures suggest..

Nic Johnson
I suggest that B&T figures probably have a leaning to higher valued properties across the market. Lower priced properties are more likely (i.e. a higher proportion) are sold privately such as through Trade Me etc.

Historically house prices increase at the rate of inflation; almost by definition. The large housing price increases seen over the past ten years have been an anomaly that is now starting to revert to the mean. House prices relative to average income have exceed what is normal and healthy. Westpac had a good piece out a few days ago that we could have flat house prices for decades.

It isn't normal for house prices to go up 10% a year, when the CPI is around 2%. For those who bought in at the top, look out below.

If one still must invest in real estate, just buy a REIT. A lot less expensive, and zero maintenance or upkeep required.

You mean expected inflation.

"House prices relative to average income have exceed what is normal and healthy"
I agree with this and I have quoted that I bought my first house at 4x my salary where as the RV is now 11x the same salary for the same position (i.e. wage inflation included).
However, there has been two significant drivers of prices over the past 6 to 7 years; historically low interest rates (hence greater affordability) and historically high immigration rates (hence housing shortages).These two drivers remain and are at least currently holding the property prices up.
However, due to current yields (i.e. increasing values of property without similar increase in rents) means that - as NZRB figures show - the number of investors purchasing is down and many others (such as me) are likely to taken their capital gain and exited the market.
The bottom line; I agree that with Westpac that we are likely to see a period of subdued house price inflation and in the short term some drop.
Why? Property investors and FHB are important sectors of the market. A number of former property investors will not be returning to the market until yields improve which is some years away and there will be a need considerable wage growth for FHB to readily enter the market.
House price inflation is of concern to the RBNZ and their action in introducing LVRs was a means of cooling what was seen as an overheated heated market. Through use of OCR and LVRs I believe that they will want to ensure that there is no "crash" of the market due to the flow on effects to the wider economy. The reduction in LVRs this year is an indication of this.
Westpac comments are similar to RBNZ who in their last statement see property price inflation of 2 to 3% per annually which is consistent with inflation so a net flat increase in prices.

'Westpac comments are similar to RBNZ who in their last statement see property price inflation of 2 to 3% per annually which is consistent with inflation so a net flat increase in prices.'

I always love this talk of inflation and house prices.... House prices go up by 10% in a year from an arbitrary £400,000... they are worth £440,000 next year.

Average wage goes up by 10% a year from £20,000 to £22,000

Yes these are UK examples before Northern Rock happened... but how does the lower increase of 2k service the future 40k increase in 'debt'????

Year 2.

House - £440,000 becomes £484,000 another 10%
Wage - £22,000 - £24,200.lovely 10% increase.

Year 3.

House £484,000 add 10% inflation = £532,000
Wage £24,200 add 10% inflation = £26,620.

Anyway you look at it - that's where we are..... New Zealand may as well be renamed 'Northern/Southern Rock'

Why? Because most of it is never going to paid back.... The whole country is merely (and only just coping) servicing the loan..

Thankfully our Government debt isn't nearly as stupid as our private specu-debting has been....


Dare I say, the TREND is in a decline now across most areas in Auckland comparing 12 months (1.0%) to 3 months (0.1%). It is just a matter of time before the 12 months turns negative, and hopefully then the penny will drop for FHB's, and they will realize that patience is a virtue when it comes to signing for a life sentence.
"late Middle English: from Old French, literally ‘dead pledge’, from mort (from Latin mortuus ‘dead’) + gage ‘pledge’."

Auckland City Central has had a dramatic rise of 2.6% in the last three months. That would be more than +10% if it kept up that rate for a year.


Auckland median price has crashed 80k in the last year. Thats 800k over the next 10 years. ( or maybe the next year )

You would expect someone called Auckland to be a bit more positive or are you an impostor?


Sounds very positive to me.

yep very positive. It's great news that prices are coming down and more people will have the possibility of buying. Not doom and gloom at all!

Hi Auckland
An offer you shouldn't refuse. I'll give you a $1,000 for that average price Auckland house with 10 year settlement date, 2028. You'll be streets ahead of the market then.
Need to sign immediately. Offer valid only 24 hours. :)

Agree, I'm still seeing some baffling prices in central Auckland, lot more than I was prepared to pay. As with any major city, those that can afford move closer to the city as population grows and traffic etc worsens.


Baffed are you. That's an easy one to explain, It's called wide scale money laundering. Auckland does tend to attract the wrong type of millionaires. The ones with out any recognizable incomes yet they magically have lots of cash.

Yes anyone who has loads of cash, not white and businesses or other income sources overseas must be money launderers.

Chessmaster.. V. Insightful.. thankyou

I see Auckland following a more US style of development, where the inner city becomes an area of high crime and deprivation, while people that can afford it move out to suburbs (or Australia). The deterioration of the Auckland CBD in the past 5 years has been remarkable.

My wife and I are terrorised by the throngs of mostly ethic Asian youngsters on Queen St when we go to the APO. The girls even walk arm in arm in an attempt to gang up on us /sarc

I could lose 50lbs by the end of the year too but it’s not likely anymore than it’s likely your suburbs house prices will climb 10% in the next 12 months
Only condition being war in Nth Korea or civil war in America then you’ll see more buyers in Auckland from afar

Not if Labour enforce the Foreign Buyers ban.

South Wairarapa has done extraordinarily well in the past year. FHBers in the Wellington region should have bought there. I predicted that commutable places around Wellington would appreciate (as well as Hobart).

That’s why we bought in Masterton last year, though not South Wairarapa. Access to a very reliable at times over subscribed rail commuter service. Our house is a 5 minute walk from the station. It’s only 3 hours a day commuting, beats listening to the wife.

Or playing with the kids! I imagine I could spend that time on the train writing my political manifesto.

Best kept secret is South Wairarapa is it not Zach ?

South Wairarapa has done extraordinarily well since 2002 actually. And as for FHB buying there, especially in Greytown, would not get a look in with the prices there unless they wanted to live in a freezing cold damp house ... sound familiar. We are having a high of 9 degrees today! We moved from a Greytown to Carterton five years ago to downsize and have money in our pockets. People who drive through Carterton still see a somewhat depressed Main Street. Drive either side of SH2 in Carterton and you will see around 8 subdivision developments. Where are all the people coming from you may ask, as well as the major demographic. A large number from Auckland, Wellington and CHCh as well as the Bay of Plenty. Major demographic... over 65! Handy to three hospitals, Masterton, Wellington and Palmerston North.

Hi Gin,

Don't forget Hutt Hospital.




You can't have house prices decouple from incomes forever. Sooner or later reality will bite.


Nah as long as we have lots of dodgy money coming in from overseas then we're sweet.

Well that's what the current and previous Government's here seem to depend on. If that foreign buyers ban isn't enforced or even a foreign buyers tax is not introduced then I really give up on NZ.

Unless you have well-meaning but destructive initiatives from governments to institute lower and lower effective interest rates. We have friends in Europe borrowing for their million Euro house at 1-2% and investing everything they can at 3-4% ROI.

Major problems looming with with any Capital Gains tax !

No capital gain ... so no tax ... !

If yo want more inflation adjusted revenue - a low level land tax with NO exemptions and a very straight forward implementation is the way to go.

No so difficult to believe the great and mighty after a years work could easily come up with an all singing dancing CGT that collects nothing.

November 2020 will be a lot of fun !

Gain is against the purchase price. Perhaps investors can start building loss credits. Awk leafy will turn as soons the bank kicks in. No kiwi earning and payong tax in NZ pays and extra million if they dont have to.

I remember someone called John Key saying the same thing in 2009.
Waste of time he said - it would end up costing the government, due to falling values.
About as accurate as anything the great man uttered.

JB more important than a CGT on investment properties would be across the board land transfer tax at say 1.5%. There’s no clue yet from your leaders how Auckland cities $5Billion super debt will ever be repaid which will mean higher interest charged on loans to the city

Norther Lights - I think that we have to accept that one of the objectives of any Land / CGT tax would be to incentivise investment in productive enterprises rather than our neighbours house.

A one off land transfer tax does not achieve that and has been shown around the world to impose a liquidity constraint on the market which is not always good. Think industrial / commercial buildings, farms - all very difficult.

The results of the review are going to be very interesting and no doubt very debatable.

Stamp duties are the worst idea ever, exceedingly regressive. Hand massive advantage to huge property investors who can retain them for generations unlike families who might need to move a few times over 20 years for school and jobs etc. It does appalling damage in UK. So 1-2% per annum Land tax sure (if cut income, GST and business tax correspondingly), but never a land transfer tax.

What is the latest on Overseas investment amendment bill.

The committee will get back to you after lunch

In 2 weeks time.


Yeah was suppose to be in May and now in June after 2 weeks and THAN next step will be again after........... Delay to dilute.

Wait n watch.

Do you say things to satisfy yourself


Current government is having cold feet but as flagship election promise of all three parties in power have no choice but to present it in parliment BUT are trying to delay to dilute the provision of the proposed amendment bill.

Politics at best.

Birds of feather think and behave together when in power.

People are slowly waking up to the fact there will be no foreign buyer ban, no reduction to immigration levels and no Pike River re-entry.

Just free tertiary education for the wealthy kids and compulsory unionism for the workers.

Correct delboy.

Welcome to the world of politicians. Pre Election and Post Election :)

But but but Jacinda wouldn't lie! She said so!

She’s lying through her teeth.

Nzdan... I see what you've done there, it's quick, but be careful.

I actually think that Ms Ardern will enforce it, she's just a bit distracted and I completely get it and understand why.... My wife when she was pregnant, delayed a few actions in the last few weeks (too busy overseeing me paint the bedrooms, and making sure I put up enough IKEA flatpacks) - however when the little ones arrived she then ruthlessly implemented everything she had promised she would do before birth..... like restricting me to one night at the pub a week and no purchasing of foreign made cars (that was my foreign buyer ban).... Just you wait,, this one like most kiwi gals is no push over and will deliver what she said she will - just watch and see.

Is that a table of average price, or of average valuation?



I guess I mean are they average sale prices, or average valuations.

It's important that the two aren't conflated in any way. Check out https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pricediscovery.asp, which explains the distinction between price discovery and valuation. Valuations are inferred from a model, whereas prices -- or more accurately, sale prices -- are determined from transactions.

It's a very good point Jock. I wonder if the Author is able to tell us whether these 'values' are the result of modelling or actual transaction prices? ... So in South Wairarapa for example, say last year 2 investment properties were sold for low levels, this year two wineries.. And boom the model says a 25% increase in everyone's value!. I think the B & T figures from yesterday, based on transactions are likely to be more realistic to what is going on but would be keen to hear from Greg on this.

I was trying for months to explain to my girlfriend that valuations don't reflect sales prices. She didn't believe me until we heard a real estate agent say "just ignore the RVs, they don't mean anything".

I'd love to hear from QV for example, just how they arrive at these valuations. I think it's an interesting issue, because both local and central government seem to rely on them to set rates, work out compensations for public works actions etc. Not to mention the dependence on these figures by the insurance industry.

and don't forget the dependence of the sheep.. Thanks again Jock.. It's interesting, you read the whole article and its all values, values, values .. What do they say he 'knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - I guess it's upside down in the Southern Hemisphere. 'Knows the value of everything and the price of nothing.'

Either way I think GV's, CV's or RV's (however you describe them) are all irrelevant in a market where there are obviously no where near enough buyers able to support prices.... that's prices not values.

The last time an RE told me the "RV doesn't mean anything" was because the section being sold was still waiting for the RV. The section was very cleverly put on the market just after the June/July rating period so he had a full 12 months to try and sell it WAY OVER what it was worth. My estimate on the RV was $380K and its on the market for $695K and has since dropped over $100K as its still for sale and time is running out fast. I'm sorry but the RV is a starting point and nobody is going to pay way over that unless there are special circumstances.

Real Estate companies are putting the fear into Sellers to sell there properties at any offer given or to sell by auction, then use scare tactics to sell to any bidder or offer regardless how low it is. Property Sellers, stand your ground for your price and don't listen to the real estate agents. People are still buying. Supply can still not meet demand. Migrants will continue to increase in NZ. The slump is at its worst now. Things will pickup. History always repeats itself.


You really don't know that but you clearly desperately want to believe it.

What you are suggesting could actually cost a seller money. If they get an offer now and refuse it in stubborn belief that they will get more in spring, they may get to spring with the flood of new listings, and their own stale listing still sitting there, find that the offers coming in are now even lower, that the national median has continued its slow creep downwards. And then when they eventually face the reality of price decline, forced to accept even less than the first offer.

What's the saying?... a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? Yeah, that.

You have been saying that for the past few winters, but maybe a broken record can be like a stopped watch, however I doubt it.

No I haven't.

I haven't been a member of this site long enough to have commented over a few winters.

The problem with your argument there is an over supply of properties for sale in Akld, with low sales volumes, days to sell increasing, inventories at around 12000, auction clearance rates at 20-30%.

You have to say that if a seller wants out they are having to reset their expectations.

If you check Trade me there are loads of properties that have been sitting on the market for over 6 months, prices are regressing so the longer you wait you risk losing more.

Sold sign outside 190 Orakei Rd this morning. 2017 CV is $3,375,000. Does anyone know how much it went for?? https://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/190-orakei-road-18969574/


DGZ, now that capital gains have dried up, you will too soon.

Because I'm in Double Grammar??

Well you could be a lonely recently divorced middle aged guy who drives his clapped out 80s Honda through Grammar Zones rubbernecking at all the properties, telling his kids on his shared custody weekends "That'll be me one day".

Sold for $3.17 in Sept 2016. So that was peak of market and we would expect a big or some kind of loss, right? Sold for $3.45m last night at auction. Central Auckland, DGZ properties must run a different path as I have experienced in my last 15 years of investing in central surburbs.

Jeepers dude this is massive!! A slap in the face for the DGM community for sure lol!!

Elsewhere on the thread there is (quite reasonable) criticism for using a median price from ~1000 sales to represent a fall in prices as it's not statistically reliable. Presenting a single sale as representative of anything is desperate.

did you read the article???

Slap in your face!

Hi Double-GZ.

The DGM community are no strangers to being slapped in the face......

They've taken plenty of face slappings over the past 5 years - with yet another slapping today.

If you want to do well from investing, then avoid DGMs like the plague.


Everyone needs to look at the figures more closely. The increases/decreases are very AREA SPECIFIC so its no good just lumping everyone into "Auckland". Those that live in desirable areas will continue to increase in price in the same way the gap between the haves and the have not's continues to increase. Those people living central or the North Shore don't care whats is happening to the rest of Auckland.

And btw not bought by Chinese money launderers as many keep suggesting on this site but a NZ family looking for a home. :-)

Dude when things don't go the DGM way the one and only trick they can and will always come up with is Chinese money laundering...I wouldn't expect anything less ha!

That kind of money stopped a while ago with China really tightening 3 years ago. It's even more difficult now with our own financial markets introducing AML regulations which have hefty penalties. The good surburbs keep attracting good prices for the schools, locality, and no new land being created. Full section houses in these surburbs do attract good prices as the buying decisions are emotional and not necessarily financial return based. :-)

Cheesy, have you and Double GZ ever thought about just exchanging numbers with each other?


Someone should invent an app, just like Grindr or Tindr but for the men that get aroused by property prices in central suburbs. That way the Chessmasters and the DGZ's could find each other by location.



I would give that more ticks if I could. Nearly coughed up my coffee.

Would that work like the youth camp app, Groper?

Nic, have you thought about going back to England or the cases against you not cleared yet there?

Hey, that's pretty good for you Cheesy, but no I'm having too much fun here.

For reference, it should read 'not cleared there yet?' rather than 'not cleared yet there?' - Why don't you get Double Grammar's phone number and he'll be able to work through how to construct a sentence with you.


.... and the bulls just say wait until after winter , spring , Christmas, Chinese NY , Easter etc , etc. Everyone is playing the same game.of FUD with unfalsifiable claims based on unknowable future events.


It has nothing to do with supply and demand. It is a credit bubble plain and simple with the added effect of Chinese herd mentality (mostly laundered) to buying which has now dried up. Massive downside risk and has been for a while. Talk to any decent fund manager right now and they a short REITs not long.


The Perma-bulls on here always avoid discussing the credit bubble, as if debt levels have no affect on housing markets and economies.

You are assuming that the perma-bulls know and understand what a credit bubble is. That may be an incorrect assumption to make as not all property investors know and understand macro-economics.

More pertinent questions.

1) Do the perma-bulls know and understand what a credit bubble is?
2) Are they aware of the ramifications of a credit bubble?


Sold a property and the accountant says the real estate agent fee is not tax deductible. He says it means it's just less capital gain. Quite surprised and a bit sad about that. Any counter opinions to cheer me up out there ?

Same affect.

Claim it anyway, and also don't forget to claim the GST

"With a lower expectation of capital gains, particularly in Auckland, we're seeing people show less urgency when it comes to selling or buying property.

I am miffed by above line.

I could understand less enthusiasm by buyers in the face of reduced expectations of capital gains in the future.


Note that house sales volumes in Auckland have increased over the last month.

Many have reasoned that with the market being flat, now is a good time to buy.

About three years ago, I forecast that the Auckland housing market would prove far more resilient/robust than many people imagined......

However, a number of people here disagreed with me and talked of an "imminent crash in house prices"........

Three years later, Auckland house prices have held their own. In fact, prices have shown a significant increase. There's been no crash whatsoever.



Good to have you back, I was getting really worried that maybe you'd had a heart attack after reading the Barfoot & Thompson article yesterday where median sales price had fallen from $900,000 in March 2017 to $820,000 May 2018. Did you have a good afternoon nap yesterday?


Hi Nic Johnson,

The selective use of statistics to mislead others carries no currency with me.


What currency other than genuine data from the biggest real estate firm in the Country and probably one of the most reputable RE businesses in the world. Is their honesty on figures and transparency not enough? They are open enough to publish their numbers every month without fail which I admire enormously from any business..... What currency would you prefer to see TTP? Yuan?

Hi Nic Johnson,

I could go on talking with you - but I'm reminded of the time-honoured wisdom: "arguing with a fool only makes you look like one".


not heard that one.before TTP .. is it a Chinese proverb?

TTP you have only been a member for 1 year and 3 months. How could you have made a forecast on here three years ago?

Or did you have a different handle? In which case, what was your previous incarnation?


Oh Double Gee Zee/ Tee Pee you are a wag, probably the greatest poe this site has ever seen, well played.

Hi Double-GZ,

You mean Father Ted?

No, I'm Father Jack.

TTP (the religious)

Hi Gingerninja,

About three years ago, it became clear to me that (Auckland) house prices weren't going to crash - because (the relatively large) price increases being recorded were more due to structural phenomena than cyclical behaviour.

I've made that point in a number of fora - not just here. And plenty of other people (and organisations) have now concluded the same - though they appear to be somewhat under-represented in this blog.

If I came here 1 year and 3 months ago, then you would have heard that message from me here over the past 1 year and 3 months. Though in other fora my message has been heard for 3 years - or perhaps a bit longer.

As much as you might be disappointed to know, there is only one of me! No Doppelgänger! ;-)

P.S. Just today we've read on this site about the significant number of people from abroad now purchasing property in NZ. A generation ago, there were far fewer overseas residents buying house here. This is a good example of a structural shift. But there are various other types of structural shift that I have elaborated on - in this blog and elsewhere - over the last 3 years or so.

TTP okay so you admit you made no such forecasts on here that anyone could refer to.

Would you care to link to the fora and corresponding handle from your 3 year old prognosticate (for those of us who have no idea what a fora you are referring to?)

gingerninja... not sure what happened, but stay safe.... looks like the usual suspects may have finally been effected with madness/debt reality... you did your best mate so don't feel guilty