Realestate.co.nz says the Auckland market is now favouring buyers for the first time since 2011- QV says average values falling

It's a buyer's market in Auckland for the start of summer, with the number of homes for sale up strongly and average asking prices and property values down.

The October figures from Realestate.co.nz show that the number of Auckland homes newly listed for sale on the website in October was up a whopping 20.1% compared to October last year, while the total number of homes available for sale in the region at the end of October was up 17% compared to a year earlier.

However, the average asking price of Auckland homes listed for sale in October was down 1.3% compared to September.

"Given the level of new listings, the total amount of stock for sale and a slowing of sales rates, the Auckland market is favouring buyers to an extent we haven't seen for nearly nine years," Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Taylor said.

"It means that buyers have a lot more choice and can take a considered approach to their buying process," she said.

 The latest figures from Quotable Value (QV) also point to a softening market in Auckland.

According to QV the average value of all homes in the Auckland region, not just those that sold,  was down by 0.3% at the end of October compared to three months earlier.

The biggest drops in average values were in the Gulf Islands where the average value was down 1.9% compared to three months earlier and North Harbour -1.5%.

However, average values were up compared to three months ago in Onewa on the North Shore, and in Waitakere, most of Manukau and Franklin (see the table below for the full district breakdown of value changes).

"Undoubtedly, the heat has been taken out of the market in recent months," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"A key market indicator, the median days to sell, is up across many regions including Auckland.

"The Super City [Auckland] in particular is seeing vendors' sales price expectations being challenged.

"However in many cases, sellers are refusing to sell below their expectations which is keeping values either at or slightly below their current levels," Nagel said.

The only other major centre where average values have fallen is Christchurch, where the average value is down 0.3% compared to three months ago, with the biggest fall occurring in the city's central and northern suburbs which were down 0.8%.

"We're seeing vendors' sales price expectations being challenged, however in some cases sellers are refusing to budge and withdrawing their properties from the market when their expectations are not met," QV Christchurch Property Consultant Hamish Collins said.

"Typically, sales are occurring where real estate agents are managing vendor expectations carefully."

Outside of Auckland and Christchurch, values continue to rise in other main centres, with Hamilton's average value up 2.8% in the last three months, Tauranga +1.2%, Wellington Region +2.9% and Dunedin +2.8%.

The charts below show the number of new listings and average values of properties throughout the country in October.

QV House Price Index - October 2018
Territorial authority Average current value $ 12 month change% 3 month change %
Auckland region  1,049,689 1.1% -0.3%
Wellington region 672,701 10.2% 2.9%
New Zealand  681,802 5.4% 1.0%
       
Far North 418,586 -0.7% 2.8%
Whangarei 551,549 11.3% 3.6%
Kaipara 544,364 7.8% 0.8%
Auckland - Rodney 941,102 0.8% -0.6%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 920,014 0.7% -0.8%
Rodney - North 963,008 0.9% -0.4%
Auckland - North Shore 1,217,762 1.4% -0.5%
North Shore - Coastal 1,394,276 2.3% -0.4%
North Shore - Onewa 975,547 -0.6% 0.3%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,184,756 1.4% -1.5%
Auckland - Waitakere 828,326 1.2% 0.5%
Auckland - City 1,238,448 1.2% -0.6%
Auckland City - Central 1,087,510 0.7% 0.5%
Auckland_City - East 1,560,581 1.7% -0.8%
Auckland City - South 1,097,597 0.6% -0.9%
Auckland City - Islands 1,146,730 2.9% -1.9%
Auckland - Manukau 903,386 1.1% 0.4%
Manukau - East 1,157,941 0.6% 0.6%
Manukau - Central 703,942 2.0% 0.8%
Manukau - North West 777,828 1.8% -0.3%
Auckland - Papakura 700,919 2.4% -0.6%
Auckland - Franklin 670,991 0.8% 0.9%
Thames Coromandel 740,448 1.0% 0.3%
Hauraki 404,218 4.9% -2.1%
Waikato 488,001 6.7% 3.3%
Matamata Piako 454,421 6.1% 1.5%
Hamilton 573,757 5.7% 2.8%
Hamilton - North East 726,744 5.5% 2.5%
Hamilton - Central & North West 529,160 6.1% 3.2%
Hamilton - South East 517,465 4.9% 1.0%
Hamilton - South West 513,355 6.1% 5.0%
Waipa 559,661 4.7% 1.1%
Otorohanga 275,687 -9.4% 0.9%
South Waikato 243,871 14.7% 17.9%
Waitomo 218,020 11.0% -4.9%
Taupo 483,824 8.2% 1.1%
Western BOP 633,158 0.9% 0.4%
Tauranga 709,746 3.3% 1.2%
Rotorua 434,253 7.4% 1.1%
Whakatane 456,758 11.4% 6.6%
Kawerau 240,003 26.7% 18.7%
Opotiki N/A N/A N/A
Gisborne 322,480 9.8% 3.0%
Wairoa N/A N/A N/A
Hastings 465,161 6.6% 1.9%
Napier 515,304 10.3% 0.2%
Central Hawkes Bay 340,811 19.7% -5.4%
New Plymouth 452,640 5.3% 1.3%
Stratford 256,394 -0.5% -5.6%
South Taranaki 226,697 7.7% 2.2%
Ruapehu 196,562 13.9% 1.8%
Whanganui 268,149 17.5% 6.0%
Rangitikei 230,431 23.4% 11.2%
Manawatu 352,505 10.1% 3.5%
Palmerston North 412,934 11.6% 4.5%
Tararua 212,405 17.0% 3.1%
Horowhenua 325,144 12.1% 2.5%
Kapiti Coast 565,168 7.1% 0.6%
Porirua 571,435 8.3% 2.4%
Upper Hutt 494,165 6.2% 0.9%
Hutt 539,025 3.6% 0.3%
Wellington 809,739 9.6% 3.9%
Wellington - Central & South 814,123 11.7% 4.4%
Wellington - East 863,305 6.8% 3.7%
Wellington - North 734,146 11.6% 5.2%
Wellington - West 916,487 6.1% 1.4%
Masterton 361,178 12.6% 3.0%
Carterton 395,319 12.6% 0.4%
South Wairarapa 488,979 9.3% 2.4%
Tasman 586,219 7.2% 1.0%
Nelson 593,947 7.7% 1.7%
Marlborough 467,537 6.8% 0.3%
Kaikoura N/A N/A N/A
Buller 192,645 3.7% 4.2%
Grey 217,228 8.4% 1.1%
Westland 252,719 2.3% 5.4%
Hurunui 385,776 1.6% 0.8%
Waimakariri 444,608 1.5% 1.4%
Christchurch 494,082 0.7% -0.3%
Christchurch - East 374,200 1.2% 0.2%
Christchurch - Hills 671,432 3.5% -0.1%
Christchurch - Central & North 579,908 0.2% -0.8%
Christchurch - Southwest 471,613 0.4% -0.1%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 511,660 -0.8% -0.2%
Selwyn 553,485 1.8% 0.4%
Ashburton 355,281 2.7% 1.4%
Timaru 361,129 2.3% 0.7%
MacKenzie 524,333 8.1% 4.1%
Waimate 239,769 7.2% -2.2%
Waitaki 303,366 6.7% -0.3%
Central Otago 514,453 9.5% 3.8%
Queenstown Lakes 1,180,082 8.0% 1.1%
Dunedin 422,674 10.5% 2.8%
Dunedin - Central & North 441,553 11.0% 2.5%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 385,681 10.8% 3.2%
Dunedin - South 403,460 10.3% 3.9%
Dunedin - Taieri 437,475 10.7% 2.8%
Clutha 222,978 10.8% 7.1%
Southland 278,927 7.6% -0.2%
Gore 228,874 5.4% 4.9%
Invercargill 280,275 13.1% 4.9%
Main Urban Areas 793,583 4.5% 0.9%

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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195 Comments

Listings are up 20% and buyers are down around 3%.

To that end, has anyone bought in Auckland recently and did you find prices soft?

No thumbs up Jock, but my guess is no one wants to admit to being that stupid.

I know many who have bought and as with most soft markets the majority of properties experience thin auctions but with good prices but some end up going at an absolute bargain, a lot of good deals to be had if you are patient. I know some who have bought two million+ properties up to 300k below the estimated sales price.

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Anecdote time - I know someone who recently bought a two bedroom unit in Takapuna for near $700k. Interest only mortgage, leveraged against their primary home, and it's tenanted for about $150 pw less than the interest payments. I am wincing just thinking about it.

That is extremely philanthropic of them, to work to subsidise their tenants rent.

Wait till the letting fee ban comes in. They'll push that rent up super high and won't have to cover the mortgage cost themselves anymore. Magic.

Right On Rick
Load on the rates bill too
Tenants can handle it !

Unless that's next door and they plan to sell both properties shortly as a package, that just docent make sense.

They told me this about a week ago, it actually kept me up at night. I'd be physically ill if that were me.

If they give one lot of tenants notice and move in themselves, they then have a 'personal' mortgage but will claim it as a tax loss. Do it via a company structure and it adds a layer of 'protection' - for want of a better word.

That said, still a dumb move in a failing market.

You need to be educated.

Thats $7,800 per year for an opportunity of a capital gain. The property likely only has to make about 2% p.a. for him to start profiting. Will that happen over the next 15 years, probably yes.

Laminar
You have heard of BLSH right ?

Agree, judging by the comments, Some have no hope given their knowledge of simple matters

Heh, unless you talk some parts of Auckland, where it's probably 20 and 15%. Sitting on the sidelines with popcorn is the place to be right now.

Do you have a 180 degree view of the action.. if so I'll bring the popcorn

PP2F. Would you like some music to keep you company, it could be lonely this Christmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6kJ7GWtv0

No 180degree views.. an internet connection and a couple of 27 inch monitors tho :)

If you waste your money on popcorn/candy, then no wonder you don't own a house.

TTP

Who said I don't have one. . Just not in a city which is in bubble territory

TTP, PP2F has previously advised that they own a property in Mumbai. Yikes.

BHSL you reek of jealousy. .. hahaha

BHCS.... BHF2S... can come up with so many names for you. ..lol

Mumbai Haaaaaaa!
That’s a giggle !!

You have to be tube light to be so slow

Hmm, if an 89c packet off microwave popcorn is the difference between buying a house ir nit i could cycle to work and i could have three auckland houses by january. Meanwhile, back in the real world.

Well, you could have three Christchurch houses by January.

Yeah, but why would I do that to myself? Knowing my luck i'd end up with a certain well known chch contributor as a neighbour! That would certainly drive me to drink!

"Sitting on the sidelines". Story of your life, ay buddy?

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All Hell has just broken loose !!! Check out what our mainstream media are now saying.https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...

Good article! (couldn't find the words "All Hell has just broken loose !!!" though)

Hes referring to 'Crash'.

Nzdan. It's quite incredible really how removing just 3% of the buyers could turn the market into a buyers market in just 8 days. Wonky foundations by the sounds of it! Best get a building survey done on the market.

Nic Johnson - yes it is amazing what 3% can do! Imagine what 10% of Chinese Foreign buyers leaving the market is going to do !!! Wonky Foundations ? I think we will need a house relocation company to work on the market. Thanks for this link you sent the other day, it was a bit intense but worth the watch. Cheers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8fCmUbjDtg&t=5s

Free Popcorn.

You and your friends may want to have a look at DFA, the data is pretty good. Here's an earlier offering of theirs, the Auction Room scene at 14 minutes is hilarious. A lot has happened since this was produced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK6sLYMyltU

Nic Johnson - Thanks for another great link. The warning signs has been glaringly obvious for quite some time. It just amazes me how much our New Zealand mainstream media has been desperately keeping this so quiet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK6sLYMyltU

Nic J
That was amazing clip on WA
Just shows collateral damage of downturn in Aussie mining
Perth really feeling it now
I do not think Auckland can be compared to the booming Perth mining bubble although Auckland does sadly
have too much exposure from Chinese property bankers
Has there been any taxes placed on properties left vacant like in Vancouver ?

Well, time to buy while the getting is good then.

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How many houses have you brought in the last 3 months?

Don’t be nosey

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No disrespect intended. Are you able to confirm yes or no with no further detail?

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His equivalent in Sydney was making the same noises 12 months ago.

Bill has been working for 40 years, and has just started retirement. His retirement plan, in his eyes, was solid. Four properties in Western Sydney, four interest only mortgages, with the rent covering the mortgage payments. In fact, Bill some days couldn't wipe that smile off his face. To Bill, Bill was creaming it. Sydney property prices always go up after all.

Sadly Bill got a letter in the mail from the bank a few weeks ago. No more interest only loans Billy Boy....you must now pay principal.

Bill now must either return to work, or sell one of his properties in a declining market to service his debt obligations on the other properties, which are also declining in value.

@Masher either you are making that up or Bill is mentally deficient because Sydney property goes down in price frequently, for example in 2015, 2010, 2008 and 2004. So if Bill thinks Sydney property only goes up then Bill has a serious memory deficiency.

Laminar

I think Masher may have been referring to John Norris.. (2 mins 30 secs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbFvwYVfwq0&t=280s

'Retirees who thought they were nearly there, and then whack!'

I have no compassion for John Norris and I do not believe his story. He is a gambler.

Agree completely. No sympathy for gambling whatsoever., unfortunately they have been extended a lot of credit on both sides of the ditch... The Irish gamblers 15 years ago were also extended too much credit for too long.

Classic example of a "Property Spruiker" ......the question really should be is how many have you SOLD BLSH ? ....but we all know RE agents will NEVER divulge that information.....vested interests .....of course.

I’ve never sold a property.

Just been leveraging into the bubble since 2011......

And now my equity cup overfloweth.

until it doesn't

Spoken like a miserably jealous DGM

Good on you BLSH, youre a great example of building value over time, while been uninterested in trading gains and instead provide stable rental homes for those who can not yet afford their own. Your value over time based approach has been rewarded and over the long term you will almost certainly see more rewards.

Can’t believe this day finally came! My first positive comment in almost 4 years! Haha.

As you don't know his debt to equity or yield position, your financial advice and accolades are somewhat short of adequate.

Neither do you know the average tenure of his tenants nor their personal financial situation. You also do not know the quality of his portfolio nor whether the housing is indeed stable.

Unless of course, you're the same person, which some are known to do on this site.

My comment is based on these:

Just been leveraging into the bubble since 2011......
- investing since 2011.
I’ve never sold a property.
- Holding for the long term
And now my equity cup overfloweth.
- Strong position

He is an investor who is interested in long term gains. These investors look for long term tenants who will respect their properties and help minimize the maintenance costs. I know his sort well, they are called 'strong hands'.

Is that the same as "soft hands" - in the cricket world ?

I once got a receipt from a pub, the name of the server on the receipt was - "baby hands".

They appear to be roughly equivalent but im new to that cricket term.

Laminar

I know they play cricket in Hong Kong, because I've played there... Do they not play on the mainland yet? I would have thought that they would have embraced it, 1.4 billion people could produce a good team, few spinners, quick footed batsman, it really is a wonderfully civilised game (until you involve the Australians) with all sorts of gentlemanly rules to adhere to, but still providing intervals for some excellent banter.
Here's a few favourites of mine to start off your education in one of the finest sports to come out of England..

http://top20cricketsledges.blogspot.com/

Ah, self declared finances. Just like to 'good old days' of low doc loans. The most accurate form of assessing.

Reading back, it wasnt him who said leveraging since 2011.... it was a different commenter.

His very name suggests he's in it purely for capital gains

They are correct, purchased fist rental in Jan 2011.

I assure you I am neither jealous nor a doom and gloom merchant.

Just because I call out a risk on lower equity does not make me so. What I fund puzzling is your moniker when you never sell, nor do I understand if you even know what 'low' is, in order to buy. You wouldn't be the first though.

My equity to debt ratios is very healthy, thanks. My moniker is just a moniker, don’t read too much into it. Property is a long term investment for me. So long in fact that I’ll be leaving it to my grandchildren one day.

#landedgentry

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If he was true to his name, he would have off loaded 2 years ago

I don’t sell houses.

Over the last two years, how much have the Auckland and national REINZ house price indices dropped?

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The stats are in front of you, but they are going down, which you disagree with..

Yes I see the stats and they are positive for Auckland for the last 12 months.

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...some here STILL blowing while they're high. The message will sink in sooner rather than later - probably sooner.

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So true, BLSH.
It's important that we ignore all related factors and hang onto the index estimates based on proportionately less transactions.

Housing has always gone up. There's no way that is going to change.

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ha-ha-ha :)

Not true. Most recently houses went down in the GFC. If there is an external event (NZ economy is far from dominant globally) everything is primed for the same thing to happen. Look at whats already happening elsewhere, like London, like Vancouver, like Sydney, like Melbourne. Are we so special that we are immune to the things impacting to locations?

Off to specsavers with you.. you missed the sarcasm in nymads post.

Most property investors know that it goes up and down, but they dont care what its doing on any one day, they care more how things will look in 20 years.

BuyLowSellNever?

It doesn't count if the bank sells the house out from under you ;)

Very positively geared and on fixed interest, so unless rents plummet I'll be fine, thanks.

@JimboJones In my experience long term investors tend to 'BuyAboutAverageSellNever.

Alas, poor old Greedy Bill. A flawed "investment" strategy from the start. Had he had his loans on P&I and maybe one or two less properties he'd still be sitting pretty.

Nobody to blame but himself- or maybe the irresponsibility of Aussie banks lending practices.

How can you "bring a house" Averageman?

Auto text from phone. Wont be the first on this site or the last.

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Buy now? Are you kidding? We are nowhere near the low of this cycle yet. Much more downside to come. Time for you to start doing your homework on the global economic situation, credit and debt environments BuyHighSellLow.

Please elaborate. How much will prices fall, and by when? Your comment suggests you are very well informed on both international and domestic goings on.

Not surprised by today's headline. It's coming into the busy part of the year.

But those expecting sizeable price discounts will go on being disappointed.

Notably, the Foreign Buyers' Ban is not having the impact anticipated.

TTP

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Ah, the story teller has woken up

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Not having the impact? Might want to give it a bit more than 9 days before making that call champ

There is a property downturn in Australia and Canada - pretty sure those aren't being caused by a foreign buyers ban in wee little NZ.

No. But both have had huge foreign capital inflows influencing their property markets. Obviously, other factor at play around interest rates & supply. However, If you think foreign capital hasn't had an impact on the NZ property market. You're very naive.

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TTP - No offence man but you have no idea. With the mentality you have unfortunately you are going to get caught out in this next downturn. Time to educate yourself and get ready for the real opportunities. Prices will be falling in the years to come due to a number of factors combined. The major one being the unsustainable debt levels globally and across on the NZ / Australian region along with a tightening of credit and lending restrictions. The next global downturn has started.

Still high on the meds I see

Agent TTP, does your agency know your pumping out this stuff in work time? Ahhh - don't bother replying, they're probably paying you to do it.

NO definitely NOT the time to buy yet

As I said;)

You mean 8 years ago ;)

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Yes my pet.. now say my name out loud again....

I hear PP2F has been shortlisted for the shooting of the new Mainland cheese ad. “Good things take time”.

Haha.. and patience pays off..;)

Well it's certainly not paying off for you PP2F, house prices were so, so, so much lower 8 years ago

Why not, my investment is holding me in good stead. .

I would have been panicking if I bought in this over inflated market

Time to get that web off your eyes and see the world in its current form...

"Typically, sales are occurring where real estate agents are managing vendor expectations carefully."

Hi PP2F,

Most people take no notice of real estate agents! Most people don't like or trust them!

Property owners/investors are typically extremely cautious of real estate agents. They're much more interested in what independent/professional people - like lawyers, valuers etc - have to say.

I'm very surprised you're not aware of this. But you're welcome to go on being guided by REA's, if you so wish.......

TTP

Agreed. Agents do have a significant vested interest, being getting paid which means closing a sale. Tough times for them in the next year.

TTP.

Don't worry my man, I have a special song for an 'old kiwi battler' like you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3LFML_pxlY

BLSH you may want to have a word with the publisher..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...

I noted yesterday that the BnT central Auckland auction on the 23rd had no report (cancelled..?.). Could it be that was because it was the day after the ban...?

DP

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Or they didn't want to report zero sale rate

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(From ANZ CEO)
"Mortgage credit growth would probably halve....I wouldn’t be surprised if it [the house price correction] had further to run...The average household average on an income of $110,000 three years ago could have borrowed $550,000 for a mortgage but “that same family today with exactly the same income – $110,000 – today could probably only borrow about $440,000,” Mr Elliott said.

lot of stock in Auckland on the market, that cant bode well for prices
credit(supply-demand)=price

I saw a friends house sell just recently for 1m above rv in central auckland - 1 bidder and vendor bids until it hit reserve. The buyers had sold recently in a very exxy area, and just wanted this house at any cost.
Got me to thinking when there is no one to buy the real exxy homes (maybe foreign buyer ban) all this swapping of houses at ridiculous prices stops... Maybe maybe not...

Oh poor Sharetrader
You obviously have failed to undertake a quality education
AUCKLAND is paved with GOLD

Gold that doesn't glitter!!!

Now is a great time to be buying investment property if the numbers are good.
When people are selling is when the wise buy because the opportunities are around.

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You would do great sell coal as gold

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TM2, keep buying them dude cause they'll be plenty of keen vendors lining up to take your banks money!

Hey TM2, are you writing for the Washington Post now? ( wealth from real estate)

You sound like a RE agent with that BS!

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The Boy is an agent. It is easy to spot by way of the grammar and punctuation he uses.

Or a Dalek perhaps?

Some here have the peculiar idea that despite the approaching debt wreck, the current situation beyond 2021 will be even more rosy. I've repeatedly invited these dreamers to present facts as to how NZ will be immune or even how the debt crunch will be avoided. No response.

The key question is, will it be a crash or correction?; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...

There are some that will lack the ability to comprehend the above

QV October 2016 North Shore 1220550 ,Manakau 906128 ,Waitakeres 837300 Auckland city up 2 percent,1209199. Prices falling or stagnant ,when interest rates have never been lower,immigration never higher,house shortage meme never higher ,demand never greater,home renovation surging So Econ 101 is flawed. More to come as QV data is dated.

The relatively new phenomenon of the "Orange Bag" outside people homes full of demolished building materials is easy to spot. I guess people are doing the odd bit of Reno so they either don't feel the need to move or else make it easier for them to reach their price expectation. Prices still holding in positive territory, its going to take a huge "Event" for them to fall as some here expect. Not sure if even GFC2 would have the desired effect, I'm beginning to think its going to take a fricken large asteroid to do the job.

seems like NZ Herald (of all places) disagrees with you

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=121...

Crash or correction? Im sticking with my prediction of a 20-25% correction in Auckland

Not going to happen, but I will be the first to admit I'm wrong. Will let you know when they have hit 20% as so many people on here are great at cherry picking.

Auckland has bravely inflated its housing costs for the last decade. So now Auckland is over priced and in any declining market the same inflexibility that caused prices to rise rapidly could cause a price crash. A mere 20% decline in Auckland may be slightly optimistic.

BTW - if our dear Housing Minister Phil Twyford had kept his campaign promise he could have mitigated the approaching risk, but he is of course a lying piece of...

Carlost
Yes Auckland housing can be stubborn
However you aren’t factoring in the fact this is a new paradigm for Auckland property
Never before has so much of it been purchased by foreigners [ majority by permanent residents on behalf of associates back home under various financial mechanism the NZ govt do not attempt to even record yet ]
Never before has China state bank held so many mortgages on Auckland property
Never before has there been so many new residents in such a short number of years into NZ
If you believe all those new migrants will stay then fine but I don’t
Australia is the usual goal
I’ve witnessed many leave for higher wages in Australia and that’s NZers as well as Sth Africans & Chinese
So this time the paradigm is very different and will be interesting to see play out
I do agree at this stage it’s still far too early to buy

(Anecdote). The "Orange Bags' are Yellow Skips in our area. And not long after they 've been removed, the "For Sale" sign is going up ( the early bird ones are still 'For Sale'!). It's not only those who realise they may be 'trapped' in situ ( they may as well do-up where they will now have to live for some time) but those hoping for one last gust of fair wind to move their surplus property....

..is a credit crunch a huge event? Don't be fooled into thinking there has to be an 'event' like some sort of one hit. We are already in the 'event'.

Really ? What is it ? I must have missed that asteroid coming down ! I don't see anything yet that is going to cause a huge crash. The key indicators are pointing to a holding pattern.

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...should a gone to spec savers.

TradeMe Property results for Auckland currently at 12,952. Gonna break 13k soon. And to think it was only 12,700+ last week? that's a big increase in a span of a couple of days.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/browse/categoryattributesearchresults.aspx?134...

Really surprised that people have waited so long. Money that bailed out last year and late 2016 looked to be the sweet spot. Personally would have exited no later than when the New Govt started discussing tax and tenancy changes. Now peoples capital gain runs the risk of getting hit by Cullen's possible tax , 5 year flipper tax, declining sale price, all the while having no tax loss saving and being unable to eject tenants at will. Amazing really.

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JK exit was a big signal, Mike Hosking confirmation!

Nic, how about Judith Collins as the entree, JK the main and Mike Hosking the dessert?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=117...

Metaphorically of course ;-)

A ménage a trois of vested interests all looking out for each others needs and wants!

and about 10,800 this time last year...

As I recall, it never passed 13000 last summer

indeed. about ~12500 peak in early april. pre-xmas peak last year ~12200

Having provided a lot of data recently, which some of you like and others less so, I thought that today I should provide a playlist for the market without foreign buyers. Sit back and relax, hopefully something here for everyone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hat1Hc9SNwE - (I can't live if living is without you, Mariah Carey)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo - (The Gambler, Kenny Rogers)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A - (Freefallin - Tom Petty)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XmwiwQjU8E - (I'm Goin' Down - Mary J Blige)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prErnop1eiM - (Lonely this Christmas - Elvis Presley)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPrf-svWUAQ - (Andrea Bocelli I Sarah Brightman - Time to say goobye)

And saving the best for last. Bill Withers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIdIqbv7SPo (Ain't no sunshine when she's gone)

Opps, forgot to add one for the Auctioneers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zLfCnGVeL4 (Sound of Silence, Simon and Garfunkel)

And one for those savy PN investors . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRfJDGx0JMc

Cultured.. But surely this is more appropriate for the Palmy Investment Crew...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nCqRmx3Dnw - ( Fresh Prince )

Christchurch Investor Hoodlums!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AVWZwZq_QU ( Fresh Prince - Boom, Shake the Room)

Auckland Property Vultures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPf0YbXqDm0 (Coz Up town funk don't give it to you. Bruno Mars/Mark Ronson)

And a song for the 'not so lefties' slightly over-leveraged in Wellington

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL6eS5wPSbE (Hippy Hippy Shakes - The Beatles)

And for those who've mounted the Ponzi in Tauranga

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoCPuhhE6dw - (Climb Every Mountain - The Sound of Music)

I thought you might chuck in "Lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz" to highlight Aucklanders' mentality to keep up with the Jones !

I would love to see Lorde to do a cover of that song.

Masher my boy.. Every soundtrack needs that 'special song to resonate with a generation' and you may have just hit gold there. Great addition to the playlist.

No surprise...can anyone tell me the one similarity between Auckland and Vancouver that has influenced prices over the last decade..

See attached published today.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/vancouver-sees-world-s-biggest-drop-in-luxur...

Vancouver has severe land supply constraints in the form of the Pacific Ocean, North Shore Mountain Range and US Border. Auckland has severe land supply constraints in the form of the idiots Penny Hulse and Phil Goff. Two sets of barriers - one real and the other of pure delusion. When a large inflow of foreign capital went looking for investment returns these cities with inelastic supply had their prices shoot through the roof. Now that the returns are drying up will the foreign money stick around and what happens next?

Of course there are going to be plenty of rentals put on the market in Auckland.
The rental returns are abysmal for the value of the property.
As I say the market is just not Auckland.
This type of market is when the professional investors do best!
Banks will continue to lend to their best clients

For the people renting in Auckland wanting the security of their own property where they work, the market is Auckland. Population dictates that's a lot of people. A lot more than CHCH.

Im from CHCH and its a nice place. I can however tell you from the 20+ people I've seen export themselves elsewhere to gain the security of home ownership, none moved down there. Mainly lack of jobs and people are still wary of the risks. Most ended up in Aussie, and a few in Hamilton and Tauranga.

The Professional Investor will know that when any market corrects in a significant way, it generally overshoots. I don't see any signs of overshooting at this stage, so it may pay to hold fire. The trick, of course, and the hardest thing to do is, not panic., and that...is easier said than done for the vast majority of people, professionals included!

Many of the landlords who have sold in Auckland or are now selling will be benefiting from large capital gains. Compare that with Christchurch where capital values and rents continue to drop through oversupply.

True Gordon, the stats are showing that the prices have absolutely plummeted.
We are being forced to sell, don’t know what to do?
Feel so depressed, it is so bad, I should’ve followed your advice Gordon!
You know everything about Christchurch property and everyone should be following your advice.
God I have been so foolish in buying investment property that nets us approx. 9 to 10 % and millions in capital gains!!!!!
Keep up the good work Gordon, you know nothing!!!

Glad you have finally understood how wrong you are about everything.

And millions of dollars of debt, at a horrendous DTI.

Debt to Income can be a helluva lot higher for investment property than owner occupied.
Business Bank manager has told me several times that we are his safest client he has, so it clearly doesn’t say much about other businesss
!

And you believe your bank manager .......

There is a sucker born every minute.....

I bet when you bought your last car, the sales man said it was the best money can buy!

Yes you have certainly done your family a disservice The Boy. You put your eggs in the wrong basket. Imagine if you had the wherewithal and the insight to invest in Auckland, The Lakes, even Dunedin. At least you now admit you have made a huge mistake in going for the easy investment which is buy up where you live. Hence your negative returns.

Speculators will not enter the market at this stage and now will be mostly First Home Buyers - who should now Wait and Watch as one thing is defenite that house price will not go up in near future so why rush in falling market.

Only thing that can be debated is the percentage of fall but if it has to fall will not be overnight as will be with some resistance so all FHB should wait and watch and enter when and if they find a deal (Which again is a relative term).

Would be interesting to know who are selling and why.
-Is the property market in China spooking foreign owners that prices can actually go down
-Is people trying to exit investment properties
-Are people leaving Auckland

A massive part of the issue in Australia is Baby Boomers trading down, including moving out of the centres.

Did you not read. . AUCKLAND HAD A NET LOSS OF 3K TO THE REGIONS

Isn't it great.. Markets working as they should.

There will always be people selling for a variety of reasons. Its only a problem when no one is buying...

Listings are streaming in.. vendors must be spooked by the FBB... it's like brexit where people realised what hit them after the referendum

I wonder if we have the same adverse possession laws in NZ? There are few empty houses dotted around Auckland while their owners are back in the mainland doing business. With luck on your side, you might able to claim a free house.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-01/squatting-laws-in-australia-how-a...

The only person who will buy at present is Shamubeel Eaqub. Bet he is pissed off buying in mid 2017 now after spouting on about renting from 2010-2017 as the best option.

"Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed "
(Elliot Wave Theory)

Exodus to cannons Creek (aka cannibal creek in the 80s)

Must keep bubble inflated, taxpayers to the rescue - government buys lots of new housing.

A year ago the Australian forums were full of people denying the possibility that property prices would ever drop in Sydney and Melbourne. Cue the same tired reasons - huge rate of immigration, shortage of houses, property prices only ever go up, etc etc. Now look over the ditch. It will soon be Auckland's turn, and after that, the rest of New Zealand. If you think that NZ is somehow "different" and immune from a global property downturn, then you are deluded.

Agreed. Historically on the way up, Sydney trends lead the Auckland ones by 12-18 months. History would suggest its the same on the way down.

Agreed, KW. The reported price drops by mainstream media in the Melbourne housing market have been very conservative. In reality many areas are 10-15% down and falling. The Banking Royal Commission has lenders thoroughly checking loan applications, slowing their approval time from 2 weeks to 4-6 weeks, with buyers unable to borrow as much as last year. Once the agents realise that sales are slowing, they're encouraging vendors to sell for less to "meet the market" to keep the sales rates flowing and the slippery slope is set. Buyers are in the box seat.

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4 stages in the property-

-DENIAL- Sellers refuse to accept reality that market has changed.The favourite bbq talk" Property prices are ALWAYS up.You cannot go wrong with property" .Unrealistic Vendors' expectations.Still in Cloud 99 salivating at hefty mark-up on GV.

-ACCEPTANCE-Sellers accept market has indeed changed.Would be more than happy to get around current GV.Or at the most GV+ Agent's Commission.

-PANIC- Sellers rush for the exit.The stampede causes heavy build-up of unsold stock& properties taking extended time to sell

-CAPITULATION- Sellers fatigued."Just bring me an offer.Any offer " they croak

What stage is the property market in now?

Acceptance.

gingerninja,

I'm not sure if we're at 'acceptance' just yet, albeit it's taken 18-24 months to wake up that the peak has long passed by. Most people are so reliant on their news from Stuff, The Herald and what they see on 'The Block' that we are likely to still be in the denial phase a little longer. I like to refer to 'as slowly drifting down a river in Egypt!' The warm, gentle waters of 'de Nile' seem lovely and then these guys show up!

https://www.google.co.nz/search?biw=1517&bih=695&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=lVfaW-...

I wonder if this will end up breaking a record for most commented article...

Hi JimboJones,

This article is just one of many that indicates the relentness enthusiasm for property in NZ.

TTP

Brilliant comments everyone. Time for a cuppa & a lie down. Bye. No pun intended.

At the end of the day, we all have our opinions.
You can be pro property or negative towards property depending on your financial situation.
What I do know is that I personally know many people who are so much better off financially due to property ownership.
What a i also knlw is that on the whole, people that don’t own any property are living on the bones of their bottoms!
Keep up the negativity towards property if it makes you feel better, and “The Man” will continue to prosper!!

I agree 100%, property has been the only way to make my way up in this country. Decent paying jobs are hard to come by, even with the qualifications I had. Basically my house was my business partner, it ended up making more money than I did.

What a i also knlw is that on the whole, people that don’t own any property are living on the bones of their bottoms!

Kinda makes the point why we shouldn't subsidise property ownership for the asset rich, right?

If the only way for you to make it up in this world was through effectively constraining the wealth generation of others, that's nothing to be proud of at all.
It's a sad existence if like Carlos you believe the only way to get ahead is effectively through bludging from the tax payer. If your skills extend only as far as that, your pride is completely misplaced.

"..people that don’t own any property are living on the bones of their bottoms!"...
Big call!
Some people have been in and out of property on a regular basis over many years. Renting makes eminent sense for any of many reasons depending on your current circumstance ( and that doesn't mean " living on the bones of their bottoms!) and views on the direction of the market(s).
Some have followed the old Jewish mantra of "Buy property, son, and never sell it if you want to be rich', but that wouldn't have helped people in Germany in '39.
Flexibility is a good trait, and open eyes an even better one!

Buckle up, this seems like the next phase of the decline in Auckland. Other regions will follow eventually. Many more houses on the market, taking longer to sell, and asking prices dropping: 20% rise in houses listed from the year before, asking prices down 1.3% from the month before.

Voiceofreason - Those are some very interesting numbers. Can you please tell me where to get these numbers from ? Cheers. This is a good youtube channel.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbf3CKYr8MM

Very early days – but I think the removal of the “marginal buyer” will eventually become recognised for its part in the market downturn – both now and in the months to come.

Although welcomed by some, they have inflicted much damage on the market, especially Auckland – both in prices paid and current expectations.

In my mind some prices paid were patent nonsense – and a partial explanation of current poor auction results and for those sellers whose hopes have been dashed.

Number of properties on sale is been up for a while as no one is buying but waiting, still very unrealistic prices based on the bubble's peak in most cases, less asking prices and auctions and more priced by negotiation. Sill a long way down until any buyer can find a home that is really worth the money they will be paying for it, and I mean really worth, not "market" or "RV" value.