Luxon says he would form a coalition with New Zealand First

Public Policy / news

National would form a coalition of last resort with New Zealand First if necessary

25th Sep 23, 8:43am by Dan Brunskill

It’s not his first preference, but National Party leader Christopher Luxon has confirmed he would call on NZ First to form a coalition, alongside the Act Party, if necessary.

Luxon has repeatedly refused to rule the resurgent NZ First in or out for months, arguing it was not above the 5% threshold in National’s internal polls.

This is unlikely to still be the case. NZ First has been above the 5% threshold in 10 of the past 15 public polls and is on track to win six seats in our DIY average.

As the party has risen in the polls, Luxon’s position has begun to become more clear and he has dropped some hints that he could work with Winston Peters.

Now, in a social media video posted first thing on Monday morning, he has confirmed it.

“My strong preference is to form a strong and stable two party coalition government between National and ACT,” he said.

“However, if New Zealand First is returned to Parliament, and I need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour and the Coalition of Chaos out, I will make that call”.

Luxon emphasised that this was not not his preference and that voters who want a change in government should give their support directly to National.

He reminded viewers that NZ First had not been in Government with National since 1998 and had supported two Labour governments since then.

However, the party hasn’t had an opportunity to form Government with National since then, except in 2017.

Interest.co.nz’s DIY polling average shows National and Act on track to win 61 seats, which would be just enough to govern without support from NZ First’s six votes — but it could easily be different on election night.

The Act Party would still be needed in a three-way coalition under National, but its leader David Seymour has ruled out sitting around the Cabinet table with NZ First.

Seymour has a fractious relationship with NZ First’s Winston Peters. The two leaders have very different worldviews but often fight for a similar set of voters.

Speaking on Newstalk ZB this morning, Seymour said it was “extremely unlikely” that he’d accept a full three-way coalition that included NZ First.

One of the two minor parties would have to be relegated to being a support party sitting without any senior ministers or a role in the executive.

On current polling, National and Act would be able to form a government without NZ First but only with a one seat majority. This means any single MP leaving Parliament or voting against the party could topple the coalition.

For example, Labour started the 53rd Parliament with 65 seats but lost three of them throughout the term. One member defected to Te Pāti Māori, one seat was lost in a by-election, and another was left empty when Ardern resigned early.

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60 Comments

by rastus1 | 25th Sep 23, 8:58am 1695585489

Good move. But more a push for me to vote NZF for me.

by Mountie | 25th Sep 23, 9:19am 1695586778

Me too because I was never going to vote for Luxon. He's too conservative for me.

by Beanie | 25th Sep 23, 9:31am 1695587464

NZF is more conservative than National.

Best news I saw this weekend was Nicola Willis ruling out any asset sales or increase to GST.

by Mountie | 25th Sep 23, 9:34am 1695587647

Actually, I didn't believe Willis when she said that. They will after all be working with ACT. I'm talking about Luxon the person. Anti- abortion.

by redcows1 | 25th Sep 23, 9:45am 1695588356

Lol. You sound like you actually believe her

by blobbles | 25th Sep 23, 11:06am 1695593188

John Key ruled out any increase to GST.

Less than 6 months later he raised the GST rate. Remember, this is who they idolise.

by Beanie | 25th Sep 23, 11:57am 1695596232

There is a very long list of shifty politicians I don't trust in the slightest, but Nicola doesn't give me that same vibe when she speaks. But I am probably a silly old fool that some scammer will soon part with his money.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 25th Sep 23, 3:35pm 1695609304

So lets not mention the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) legislation that Willis was 100% in agreement with back then and has now done a !00% about face on? Yeah. So trustworthy.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 25th Sep 23, 3:54pm 1695610495

Thank god she had the strength of character to admit it was a mistake.

"I reserve the right to change my opinion as more information becomes available." Some famous person

by ChrisOfNoFame | 25th Sep 23, 4:00pm 1695610856

So terrible decision making vs. strength of character, huh? That works for you?

What it does show is that Willis will just do whatever her leader says. (And in case you're unaware - that isn't Luxon. It's the invisible faces - mostly multi-millionaires - that set National Party policy and tell the politicians what to say and do.)

by Baywatch | 25th Sep 23, 9:28pm 1695630503

Yes I remember Sirjohnkey saying the same words

by Zwifter | 25th Sep 23, 9:02am 1695585730

Should have ruled out NZF so they don't make the 5%. Bad move from Luxon he needed to push a vote for NZF is a wasted vote.

by dumbthoughts | 25th Sep 23, 9:10am 1695586259

I disagree.

Firstly, ruling out parties of coalition deals (before they are even in a position to be negotiated) seems to me to run contrary to the principles of an MMP system. If enough people want to vote for NZ First to get across the 5% threshold, then their "interests" deserve a place at the negotiation table, do they not?

Secondly, if you want to see the government changed it seems crazy to reject out-of-hand a potential 5,6,7% of votes that might be critical post-election, especially as we all know that if Luxon had ruled out NZ First and they were then needed he would be making that call (just as you can guarantee that even though Chippy has ruled NZ First out, he will make that call if needed and sell his soul to justify it). Declaring you don't need or want a coalition partner then calling them up is surely not a great starting point for negotiations!

by Foxglove. | 25th Sep 23, 9:17am 1695586628

Luxon & National could have saved themselves quite some distraction by simply saying from the outset we will consider ant coalition partner from any party that the electorate has seen fit to return to parliament. In signalling ruling out National. the Greens & TPM would have done the work for them.

by Albert2020 | 25th Sep 23, 9:53am 1695588780

Great comment. His posturing over the past 3 months when asked repeatedly whether he would consider working with Peters makes him look shifty and untrustworthy.

by vman | 25th Sep 23, 10:44am 1695591892

Albert...your post should read;

"Great comment. His posturing over the past 3 months when asked repeatedly whether he would consider working with Peters makes him shifty and untrustworthy."

by Albert2020 | 25th Sep 23, 11:49am 1695595784

Good point, replace the "f" from the first adjective with a "t" and perhaps more accurate?

by vman | 25th Sep 23, 11:32am 1695594773

Hard to argue with that.

by sharetrader | 25th Sep 23, 9:24am 1695587085

he is only saying it in the open now because internal polling has NZ first back and who knows what ACT are bringing in or how stable they will be after this election , DS has moved 60% of the last lot out of parliament and that should tell you a lot of the internals of ACT

by huttman | 25th Sep 23, 9:08am 1695586110

if Labour and Green voters don't want ACT to hold to much power, it's time for them to vote NZF or National.

by Kate | 25th Sep 23, 9:32am 1695587523

I wonder if any of these polls are taking into account that Te Pati Māori will likely be bringing in more additional MPs on its party list than it did in the current government with only a single electorate MP.

What National must be reading in its polling is the bleeding of party votes to ACT. No other reason for Luxon to make such a formal announcement about NZF.

by Mountie | 25th Sep 23, 9:37am 1695587866

The swing is to NZ first and Luxon knows it. He's trying to save face. His video message was pure Willis.

by Kate | 25th Sep 23, 10:46am 1695591984

How interesting if that is the case. Bleeding party votes via two arteries :-).

by Albert2020 | 25th Sep 23, 9:54am 1695588882

Totally, that’s my plan. I’ve also convinced my father (usually true blue voter) to do the same as he has concerns about the direction ACT would drag this country towards.

by Albert2020 | 25th Sep 23, 10:42am 1695591778

I would argue voting for NZ First is the only answer to mute ACTs influence as there are many ACT policies that National would like to introduce (lower top tax rate etc) that National will claim after the election they had to introduce as part of the coalition negotiations with ACT.

by TonyBarnett | 25th Sep 23, 3:15pm 1695608137

The reality is that polls do not reflect who will turn out to vote. The polls do reflect that people want change so I expect a higher percentage of those people will turn out to vote than those that don’t want change.

ACT is likely to surprise & are highly likely to form a majority government without NZ First.

NZ First will get more popular with a lot of Labour supporters voting strategically to reduce ACT’s influence.

I predict Labour will continue to slide in popularity because of this.

The shift to the right will give National more reason to decimate Labour’s policies.

by Albert2020 | 25th Sep 23, 12:09pm 1695596986

I don't think ACT will climb above 12%. The recent polling suggests this to be true and certainly the party has performed poorly over the past few weeks with the media highlighting their poor candidate selection process and austerity measures

by vman | 25th Sep 23, 12:45pm 1695599122

And the realisation that ACT want asset sales back on the agenda won't help their numbers.

by Foxglove. | 25th Sep 23, 3:18pm 1695608288

Yes TB Labour is in dire straits. Defections firstly to the Greens & now to NZF as it is more than likely not going to be a wasted vote. Labour could well end up with less seats than National in 2020. Extraordinary downfall and even more extraordinarily they don’t appear to have a clue as to why. Ironically WP’s often derisive remarks during the first term about their incompetence, cluelessness are resounding loud & clear, as he returns to bite them

by xingmowang | 25th Sep 23, 9:25am 1695587153

Not sure why people are still obsessed with the election.

No current party in NZ will bring any real changes to NZ.

by Foxglove. | 25th Sep 23, 9:58am 1695589085

True. No radical change. But you keep on overlooking, on the grand scale, that New Zealand is only the size of a reasonable suburb in your homeland.

by xingmowang | 25th Sep 23, 10:25am 1695590748

And the current government leading the 'suburb' is pushing furiously on a race-based co-gov and try to let everyone speak/write this very 'suburb' specific language?

by Chairman Moa | 25th Sep 23, 11:52am 1695595936

Mt Albert? Favourite spot for Taiwanese!

by Mark L | 25th Sep 23, 10:32am 1695591166

NZ First is very likely to be there so I think Luxon is doing the right thing here by grabbing an option and hoping to reduce ACTs influence in the post election Govt.

by Contrarian | 25th Sep 23, 10:42am 1695591756

Seems like both National and ACT are working and promoting for Winston. Good on ya, Old Man.

by 2 Tooth Bora | 25th Sep 23, 11:18am 1695593908

Luxon would sell his soul to the Devil for power.

by Richardfromauckland | 25th Sep 23, 11:27am 1695594453

Worked for Shipley...

by Kate | 25th Sep 23, 11:56am 1695596171

I think you mean Bolger. Once Shipley rolled Bolger the coalition with NZF disintegrated;

On 14 August 1998, Shipley sacked Peters from Cabinet. This occurred after an ongoing dispute about the sale of the government's stake in Wellington International Airport.^[34]

Peters immediately broke off the coalition with National. However, several other MPs, unwilling to follow Peters out of government, tried to replace Peters with Henare. This caucus-room coup failed, and most of these MPs joined Henare in forming a new party, Mauri Pacific, while others established themselves as independents. Many of these MPs had come under public scrutiny for their behaviour. Until 1999, however, they provided National with enough support to continue without New Zealand First.^[35]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First

by 2 Tooth Bora | 25th Sep 23, 1:47pm 1695602852

Bolger came back from the USA - Washington to find he (like Caesar got knifed in the back 'Et tu, Brute') was replaced by Shipley to beat Helen from becoming NZ first female Prime Minister. National have never been the same since this culture remains to this day.

by Kate | 25th Sep 23, 2:40pm 1695606046

And then she went on to wreck Mainzeal and a plethora of its sub-contractors.

by Foxglove. | 25th Sep 23, 3:09pm 1695607783

Hardly surprising outcomes for qualifications hardly beyond a primary schoolteacher. Don’t know that Bolger would have held it together much longer but there should be no capacity in NZ politics to rise to the top simply by being gifted at bulldozing. Mind you, at least the indomitable David Lange was given opportunity to provide us on TV, with one of his greatest put downs.

by Richardfromauckland | 26th Sep 23, 8:28am 1695670090

True. The angle I was coming in at was a bit more towards what 2 tooth mentioned.

Pretty interesting listening on RNZ this morning: Shaw, Hipkins, and Bishop wrapping up with some analysis from Jane Patterson.

National really don't want to work with Winston, but will to secure their place behind the wheel. I wonder what would have happened if they had just ruled it out.

by Chairman Moa | 25th Sep 23, 11:34am 1695594859

I reckon Luxon would sell everything including William and Olivia to get power!

by redcows1 | 25th Sep 23, 12:20pm 1695597609

No but yours and mine and any unbelievers will be on the block.

by Black and White | 25th Sep 23, 12:05pm 1695596727

This will never work both there egos are to big.

Winston is lazy and just there to stir things up very negative.

He would be better to say up North and go Fishing his time has well expired.

by M0ralHazard | 25th Sep 23, 1:01pm 1695600081

"Strong and stable" and "Coalition of Chaos"

Have we been transported to the UK in 2017?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 25th Sep 23, 3:39pm 1695609570

Yup. This election is really looking like NZ's Brixit moment. Alas the polls all say we'll leave. (And go back in time to god knows when.)

by WestieAJ | 25th Sep 23, 1:15pm 1695600933

Luxon should make a visit to the crossroads. He will find Peters there waiting for his signature.

by JohnfromtheTron | 25th Sep 23, 1:23pm 1695601391

National, ACT and NZF...change of Government but still a Coalition of Chaos

by Cheetahlegs66 | 25th Sep 23, 1:31pm 1695601887

Excluding Winston's ego is there anything that precludes a Nat-Act Government with NZF providing confidence and supply?

by Kate | 25th Sep 23, 2:42pm 1695606130

hahahaha - answer: Winston's ego.

by MLSmith1 | 25th Sep 23, 3:07pm 1695607674

Seymour is going to have to compromise, else let his 'moral high-ground' bury ACT's ambition

by RickStrauss | 25th Sep 23, 3:47pm 1695610032

A pretend-libertarian-and-Epsom-NIMBY has no moral high ground.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 25th Sep 23, 3:56pm 1695610580

NZ First has some 'interesting' policies ...

https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_policies

Some will appeal to the red-neck elements of the right. And some absolutely won't!

I note they want to take GST off most foods (like everyone else does except NZ).

But they don't say how they're going to plug that budget hole. Ah well. They're in good company. ACT doesn't say how they're going to pay for their promises either. And we've already noted the glaring holes in National's budget.

Call me old fashioned - but being able to present a realistic budget used to be a major requirement.

So far, the Greens and TOP have believable budgets. Labour's is almost believable as it is pretty much 'steady as she goes'. Good practice from the more progressive parties (although only the Green's and TOP's budgets show any inspiration.)

But the right? OMG. National & ACT? With NZF? An awful prospect.

Yup. NZ faces it's Brexit moment. And we'll probably 'leave' and return to the 80s? Or maybe 60s? Or maybe the Key years? But nobody ask the NACT how they'll do it. Why? They have no idea!

Our Brexit moment for sure.

by Contrarian | 25th Sep 23, 10:14pm 1695633285

This election is not about budget. It is about vested interests keeping their advantage.

by blobbles | 26th Sep 23, 8:24am 1695669892

Its easy to see what they will do. Regressive tax policy. Probably say "Labour left us in really bad shape, we have no choice but to raise GST to 20%". Or they will simply get rid of their tax cuts, particularly any that help the low end.

General public outrage, but you get what you vote for.

If ACT have a large say, they are libertarian, so will downsize government considerably. National/ACT when in power have a tendency to do this, already government departments are gearing up for it (keeping some roles around that they had planned to disestablish, but are waiting for them to come to power so they look like they are trimming heaps, when they aren't really). But if ACT have a large say, expect a bunch of government services to almost disappear completely, doing stuff like sending the call centres overseas and reducing heaps of services. And any improvement programs Labour has started will be axed, no matter how good they are (for instance unified health systems across the country, so you know, you can move around and your records are available everywhere). National/ACT are great can kickers to system upgrades in the country, where they say "well the current systems are working, lets get another 10 years out of them", when the systems are basically collapsing.

by nzforall | 25th Sep 23, 7:31pm 1695623519

Dont forget that national was ditched 6 years ago. The nat voters fled to labour to get rid of the hated national government.

Well the wheel has turned but NZ First must be brought back to keep the next government honest.

Party vote NZ First

by solardb | 25th Sep 23, 11:06pm 1695636405

Given some of ACT 's Mp's are total whack jobs , we certainly don't want them to have that kind of power. However, Of course the Greens and/or Labour can always vote with National to stop the more extreme ACT and NZ first policies.

by Roger the dodger | 26th Sep 23, 2:04pm 1695690286

Plenty of total whack jobs in the Greens - including one of the leaders - so I doubt they are capable of that type of rational action.

Labour are so idealistic that I doubt they will risk losing even more of their hard line CTU support as well.

There is only one course of action for the country to take right now, and the polls are indicating that the idealistic left are incapable of jumping ship to support it. Instead they are voting for the Greens and NZ First just to spite National. They are, of course, cutting off their selfish little noses to spite their faces.

Compare this with the pragmatic actions of the right in the last election, they realised what needed to be done to stabilise the country, and so they did it, despite the bitter taste it left.

The left need to grow up.

by estateagent | 26th Sep 23, 3:17pm 1695694630

I expect many Labour voters will abandon ship and vote NZ First in order to keep Seymour under control