April saw a dramatic increase in the number of Kiwis leaving NZ long-term

Public Policy / news

Net population gain from migration dropped dramatically in April as New Zealanders left the country in droves

12th Jun 24, 11:41am by Greg Ninness

New Zealand recorded a dramatic slump in population growth form migration in April, thanks largely to more people leaving the country.

The latest estimates from Statistics NZ show 19,900 people arrived in NZ on a long-term basis in April, while 17,656 departed long-term. That gives a net gain of 2244 for the month, down from 10,219 in April last year (-78%).

That's the lowest monthly net gain since July 2022 when migration numbers were just starting to pick up again after pandemic border closures.

Prior to the border closure period, the only time the net gain has been as low as it was in April was in June 2018.

Long-term arrivals were reasonably steady in April at 19,900, compared to the 20,016 long term arrivals in February, and 17,946 in March.

However, there was a big jump in long-term departures. These rose from 11,058 in February to 13,124 in March and 17,656 in April, up by 109% compared to April last year.

That was the highest number of long-term departures in any month of the year since Statistics NZ began collating the figures in their current format in 2001.

Of the 17,656 people who left long-term in April, 10,558 (60%) were New Zealand citizens, while just 2363 (12%) of the long-term arrivals were returning NZ citizens who had been overseas for an extended period.

That means there was a net loss of 8194 New Zealand citizens in April, and a net gain of 10,439 citizens of other countries.

However the Statistics NZ figures are provisional and may be subject to significant revisions.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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141 Comments

by ex agent | 12th Jun 24, 11:54am 1718150066

Not surprised. Our useless politicians are concentrating on things like Māori language and wards and not on issues such as inflation and housing.

by Baywatch | 12th Jun 24, 2:03pm 1718157811

I thought we were back on track..?

by Te Kooti | 12th Jun 24, 4:02pm 1718164964

Breaking news pal, the great economic saviours have been in charge 8 months and things are getting worse - and it's accelerating.

You've done most of the cheap headline stunts (removing te reo from Govt Depts) that got the 3/4 pant wearing Tauranga Ratepayer types frothing into their milky latte's.

Incredibly though, having no economic plan of substance has yet to deliver any sort of bounce.

(Apologies ex agent, I misinterpreted your comment)

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 3:21pm 1718162482

To be fair, I think he's talking about the current lot

by Te Kooti | 12th Jun 24, 4:02pm 1718164928

You know what, you're right..... haha.

by RookieInvestor | 12th Jun 24, 4:14pm 1718165648

Before you renovate, you have to remove the trash.

by Chris-M | 12th Jun 24, 5:34pm 1718170440

As I have been saying for a while, we are solidly on the track to becoming a South Pacific banana republic.

I have been likening us to Argentina, but that may be a bit hard on Argentina. With all the gangs, crimes and drugs, Columbia may be more accurate.

The political histories of these countries is wild swings between crazy left wing regimes and self serving right wing puppets of the wealthy. The latter being the ultimate beneficiaries. Sound familiar?

I notice that the wealthy are selling up their plush homes, heading west and taking their businesses with them. That is not a small or lightly made decision for these sorts of people to make. Understandable; they have seen the writing on the wall. A lot of average Kiwis will wake up and follow them. We are just at the beginning of an avalanche of Kiwis leaving.

by Black and White | 12th Jun 24, 6:36pm 1718174162

Totally agree you can't blame people for leaving.

This country is been so poorly run for so long it has been going down hill sense the GFC.

Not looking great going forward either for the future with no leadership or vision with the current lot.

by Mr Ed | 12th Jun 24, 7:21pm 1718176862

@ ex agent

If you can read but are unable to think then you can always look at the pictures

by Averageman | 12th Jun 24, 11:55am 1718150150

All future renters and tax payers voting heading west. Thanks ponzi. Good luck renting recent immigrants 10 deep to a room and to 501s.

by HouseMouse | 12th Jun 24, 11:58am 1718150291

We will get what we deserve.

Thanks to short-termism and self interest.

by Smudge02 | 12th Jun 24, 1:15pm 1718154952

And our kids will get what they don't deserve.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 12th Jun 24, 2:33pm 1718159584

Nah - all our bright kids will be off to Oz where they have a decent economy..... the Aussies will welcome our newly qualified teachers, engineers, scientists and so on with open arms. Pay them a decent wage, offer a cheaper house and affordable living. sounds great.The

however... the older generation here will reap what it sowed. I wouldnt hold my breath for decent healthcare, police or infrastructure if i was a boomer in NZ... more grit my teeth and prepare for a nightmare retirement

by Smudge02 | 12th Jun 24, 3:50pm 1718164215

In a few generations we will have gone from looking forward to a peaceful retirement in a quiet cul-de-sac with neigbourhood parties, shared baking and doors left unlocked to gated communities with 24hr security, locked inside you security meshed box watching the 6:00 news of all the carnage outside.

by Peter M | 12th Jun 24, 4:09pm 1718165356

Lucky I still have my EU passport.

by mfd | 12th Jun 24, 4:10pm 1718165449

I lost mine because the older generations in the UK threw their toys out of the pram.

by RookieInvestor | 12th Jun 24, 4:17pm 1718165862

Housing isn't much better in Oz, unless you want to live in hillbilly land.

I have a workmate, on his 3rd job in under 6 months there, he is a good engineer, its just not what he thought it would be.

everyone is struggling, people just think Australia doesn't have any issues.

by powerupkiwi | 12th Jun 24, 5:27pm 1718170057

Depends. Melbourne is vastly cheaper than Auckland for example. Generally there’s enough choice that you can be much better off there.

by linklater01 | 13th Jun 24, 8:49am 1718225383

powerupkiwi,

Not according to the annual Demographia Housing Affordability Study. The two cities are both severely unaffordable with median price/median incomes of over 10.

by RookieInvestor | 13th Jun 24, 12:13pm 1718237619

Hamilton is cheaper than Auckland, Christchurch is cheaper than Auckland.

These best comparison for Auckland in Oz is Sydney, as there are the main cities of the country, and the most expensive.

by lockdowndays | 13th Jun 24, 10:29pm 1718274587

Unless you are looking at income to house price/rental ratio. Then most of NZ blows Aus out of the water in those results. The best life you can hope for is to be a remote worker or have a sought after skill in a small town or remote area

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 12:18pm 1718151525

Speaking of 10 deep to a room, there is a 3 bedroom house near my place that is rented to some recent arrivals to NZ.

There's a small car yard full of vehicles parked up on the driveway and grass out the front. There are at least at least three different families as they are of the same religious group but very clearly different ethnic backgrounds, each with mum & dad and 1-2 kids each, living in this house and the garage appears to have been converted as well.

Very nice people on the occasions I've spoken with them in passing.

All three of the dads are Uber drivers. That's what they do for a living. I know this as I've spoken to them when walking the dog past, and you can see the Uber door stickers etc. I didn't realise you could immigrate to NZ as an Uber driver - how exactly does this get signed off?

I guess the landlord doesn't care as long as the $$$ flow in.

by 1harlow1 | 12th Jun 24, 1:43pm 1718156621

Usually it's a second job.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 2:28pm 1718159328

Fair point you raise. Next time I'm out with the hound and one of the "men of the house" is outside cleaning the car or whatever, I'll make a point to ask. Their English isn't amazing, but they did relay to me that they drive Uber for a living (which I took to mean that is a full time gig).

by Nzdan | 12th Jun 24, 1:47pm 1718156834

I wonder if the Landlord's insurance company is aware of the number of occupants? Would be a shame if the place burned down and the insurance company nullified the cover on this basis.

by Harvey W | 12th Jun 24, 11:57am 1718150221

Last out turn off the lights

by Brutus Iscariot | 12th Jun 24, 12:05pm 1718150703

We're getting plenty of new uber drivers, fruit pickers and chefs on a monthly basis though...

by Eschaton | 12th Jun 24, 12:45pm 1718153132

Your -ism is showing? Most of "those" people are actually nurses and people looking after the elderly, whom in euro culture are seemingly oftem to be shipped off to a home forthwith, not looked after by the family.

by mfd | 12th Jun 24, 12:57pm 1718153824

Do we have good data to resolve this argument?

by Nzdan | 12th Jun 24, 1:47pm 1718156871

reckons.xlsx.

by mfd | 12th Jun 24, 3:58pm 1718164706

Splendid, the perfect environment for an internet bun fight. The data probably isn't important anyway.

by Eschaton | 12th Jun 24, 6:44pm 1718174659

That wouldn't make a difference to casual denigration and innuendo towards those of the Indian diaspora.

by rastus1 | 12th Jun 24, 1:18pm 1718155118

I am told there are large numbers of recent 'nurse' arrivals who cannot get work. The DHB's down want them. Dubious qualifications and poor language skills.

by malamah | 12th Jun 24, 3:39pm 1718163564

I have heard similar from the source.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 8:53am 1718225606

Same here, in fact they have over hired across the country according to my reliable source, and have to get high end approval for any new hiring.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 5:01pm 1718168480

There was a thread on Reddit Chch not long ago (on topic of dodgy employers) that I seem to recall alluding to this. Some nurse/medical staffing agency that brings in nurses from overseas but who wind up not being able to get work because their qualifications aren't up to scratch.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 12:05pm 1718150714

I, for one, am glad we have developed an immigration model where we export all of our "no hopers" who drive Ubers and serve takeaways, and instead bring in the best and brightest medical professionals, business minds and engineers from overseas (and these new imports aren't able to bring in their dependent family members either) ...

... ;)

by HouseMouse | 12th Jun 24, 12:06pm 1718150802

A model for all the world to emulate

by Greeneggsandham | 12th Jun 24, 5:46pm 1718171172

Don’t forget the 501’s who will train our next generation of criminals.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 8:55am 1718225754

And use their existing networks overseas to import more drugs.

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 12:11pm 1718151111

Net passenger arrivals/departures for the YTD. Passenger numbers are at 89% of 2019 pre-covid levels.

Jan 2024 46,998

Feb 2024 46,501

Mar 2024 -46,396

Apr 2024 -68,416

May 2024 -53,540

by HGWR | 12th Jun 24, 12:20pm 1718151637

Tourism peaking in February is hardly news. You're better off looking at net arrivals on a 12 month basis, although even that will be affected by changes in levels of tourism vs last year.

by Three Veg | 12th Jun 24, 12:36pm 1718152598

I’ve been following this also. On a seasonal basis we are definitely down vs prior years but the middle of the year is always net negative.

we won’t really see what’s what until we hit spring when typically we see a strong shift to net positive

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 12:52pm 1718153576

I look at it in terms of "the number of wallets in the country". The greater the number of extra people in the country the more that is spent in the country, thus keeping our economy alive. The more we go into the negative the less the amount of money sloshing around. This shows up in tourism, hospitality, retail, rentals, tax collection, and a number of other economically significant areas.

June will likely be another negative month, but July is usually positive as the ski season coincides with school holidays, and international students arrive for second semesters. So far we are net negative 75,000 people for the year, which has undone some of the 128,000 net arrivals from 2023.

The average length of stay for tourists is 11 days, so most tourists net themselves out within the month.

by rastus1 | 12th Jun 24, 1:20pm 1718155247

LOL. More wallets but same amount of cash.

by simplton | 12th Jun 24, 6:40pm 1718174429

Yeah, the amount of money coming into the country allows us to buy the stuff that we need from outside the country. The stuff going round and around from hand to hand between us, not so much

by malamah | 12th Jun 24, 3:43pm 1718163809

I keep track of this for rolling totals;

-113,371 on 3mo basis

-51,321 on 6mo basis

+56,679 on yearly basis

So if there is a big turn around and we go back to the net inflow of 2023, the yearly total will be 56,679. But at the moment it's looking like departures are trending up, and arrivals are trending down by comparison. So the yearly figure might be less than 50k by the end of the year.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 5:01pm 1718168467

People don't want to live under the current govt. Another young engineer heading overseas, one of the reasons given is the current coalition.

Angry entitled old rich people who voted these clowns in have a lot to answer for.

by HouseMouse | 12th Jun 24, 5:45pm 1718171159

Partisan nonsense.

Most of the country’s current issues are the product of the policies of many successive governments, Blue AND Red.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 8:23pm 1718180593

Voter regret HM?

The main 2 issues facing this country were/are housing and climate change.

This government has reversed the progress that Labour/Greens were making on housing and has basically said climate change doesn't matter.

by lockdowndays | 12th Jun 24, 10:49pm 1718189393

Not true, people don't want to live under any government where they can't afford to buy groceries and live their lives like a normal working person should. I support the Left but fled the country under them, not because of them, because it just wasn't working for me or my family. I think you'll find the majority of 'leavers' will be in this category.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 11:43pm 1718192586

Well you may be right. I'm basing it on anecdotal evidence over the last year as our company shed pretty much all the under 30s engineers, planners and data scientists. The incoming govt was one of the main reasons for leaving. But it's anecdotal based on a small sample in a specific industry. It would be great if people were surveyed as to why they were leaving.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 9:00am 1718226004

Don't forget those who were locked down and couldn't leave the country to go on an OE. The state of the economy has given many the push to travel and/or live overseas. Why stick around here when you could earn upwards of 60k planting potatoes in the middle of nowhere north of Perth in 3 months only, in a place with nowhere to spend money, then use this to travel for an entire year. Auckland traffic and more work for less money sounds much more appealing (sarc).

Anecdotally I know of a few friends of friends who moved over to Oz with the fixed goal of saving hard over there for a house in NZ and plan to come back later this year or next year with money in tow and when the housing prices drop off further. The money is good over there, but they all prefer the lifestyle in NZ.

by lockdowndays | 13th Jun 24, 10:37pm 1718275070

I agree, the number of people has ticked up, at my own workplace it was a trickle only because we left during the tail end of covid, I've heard it's ramped up in a big way since. But I really don't know if it's solely government for the majority (not supportive of this current govt btw, I think they're bloody awful and am glad to be away from it all). It's such a huge life decision to make, cost of living/ability to get ahead/job availability is a much stronger driver in my opinion. Both govts have let us down in a big way, and normal working people suffering the consequences are simply leaving to find themselves a better deal. Agree a survey of the reasons why ppl move away would be incredibly valuable

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 9:02am 1718226164

Had we not seen such a transfer of wealth upwards due to lockdowns, covid payments, and ludicrous increases in the price of housing, we likely wouldn't have as bigger gaps between the haves and have nots in NZ.

by lockdowndays | 13th Jun 24, 10:44pm 1718275456

It makes me really angry tbh, I remember mid 2020 the amount of new cars suddenly appearing in the neighborhood was so noticeable - everyone was spending and having a ball like it was 1999. Everyone's houses were jumping by tens of 1000's each month. It's not a 'hindsight' thing either - how many people were calling to tighten things up by the end of that year, and still it took another year to start reacting. It's buggered a whole generation, who are now repaying the favour by bailing.

by jim hansford | 12th Jun 24, 12:22pm 1718151743

The stupidity of the Ruling classes is mind blowing. We have a feudal tax system that enables the rich and non productive elements of society to plunder the wages of those working hard.

Anyone getting money from capital investments pays no tax and now we have the landlords in power and they are giving it large to the renters. The current batch of renters say 'no way' so leave and we are importing a new batch of renters. The powers that be dont care because, remember they are the landlords, and will pervert immigration policy to ensure they have a steady stream of renters.

The good of the country doesn't feature anywhere in the discussion, just get me another renter. I wouldn't be surprised if the hardening across the ditch was instigated by National to keep renters in the country.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 12:41pm 1718152914

The "vested interests" (rentiers, business owners/shareholders who are dependent on cheap labour and cheap imported demand) are playing the country like a game of Age of Empires, where each 'villager' is just a unit of human capital - nothing more, nothing less. All perfectly interchangeable with one another, utterly faceless and nameless, as long as each villager does its job (in this case paying rent, buying trinkets, and undercutting wages).

by HouseMouse | 12th Jun 24, 4:43pm 1718167432

And Labour have their snouts in the trough nearly as much as the Nats

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 8:53pm 1718182403

Don't disagree with you at all there. Either that or they are weak, e.g. caving to business lobby last term.

Can't forget as well the more "extreme" leftie (e.g. Greens) obsession with mass immigration as a means of dismantling the evils of Western culture/society, and the champagne socialist academics/well paid public servants/similar types who are usually Labour enthusiasts, who love immigration as it brings richness and diversidee and interesting cuisine options ... just make sure they don't live anywhere near us or go to our kids' schools please or else we will move out of town while talking about how great it all is.

by Three Veg | 12th Jun 24, 12:33pm 1718152429

Wow. This is red alert stuff.

by Zwifter | 12th Jun 24, 2:05pm 1718157913

Is it really ? New Zealand was a far better place to live in the 70's and 80's with half the population. Auckland needs a whole lot more people to leave, the traffic up there is a joke.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 12th Jun 24, 2:40pm 1718160018

thje problem is the wrong people are leaving.... lol. We are swapping smart educated taxpayers who can help us grow the economy and improve public services and pay for road maintence. for unskilled workers who drive cars but cant afford to contribute to improving stuff

Th estupidty of rthe landlord class is to miss that we currently have more and more houses for sale, and more and more rentals available.... who do they think is going to afford to rent or buy those houses... and who will pay the tax needed to pay the accomodations supplements? its the problem with short term greed... it backfires eventually

by David Chaston | 12th Jun 24, 2:59pm 1718161191

You need to get out more. And clearly you haven't visited many major urban areas. For the record, I reckon Auckland is the pick of the towns and cities I have lived in or visited in New Zealand, and also the pick of the major world cities I have lived in. (But there are some I have visited but not lived in, that seem pretty good too.)

I do remember the 1970's in New Zealand. I don't have the selective memory you seem to have. It was basic and insular back then. And no place for non-white minorities. Social attitudes were appalling, I recall. Pay was awful too, inflation ridiculous, and the cost of most things (which had low utility values) in relation to pay far higher than now. You need to have lost some memories to think it was better then.

by Retired-Poppy | 12th Jun 24, 3:19pm 1718162378

Zwifter, you live in overcrowded Tauranga - right? What's the traffic like there?

by linklater01 | 13th Jun 24, 9:02am 1718226172

R_P,

I live at the Mount and traffic is a significant issue. There are several major choke points where very long queues form each day. For example, if I have an appointment at the cancer clinic in Tauranga at 9am, a journey which I can do outside peak hours in 15 mins, takes almost an hour. I would hate to live in East Papamoa or anywhere north of the city and have to travel to Tauranga to work.

by Te Kooti | 12th Jun 24, 4:10pm 1718165413

I think Auckland was more enjoyable to live in in the 80's/90's than today. It just hasn't developed the transport infrastructure for it's growth and really has only one road in and out.

I recall the CBD being much more appealing as a destination, safer, more bars/restaurants.

Other cities, it really depends on your financial means - but I could name a few I'd choose before Akl. Auckland is still a fantastic place, particularly the harbour and Rangitoto.

by HouseMouse | 12th Jun 24, 4:49pm 1718167743

I guess David is comparing to the 70s, but I agree with your view of Auckland in the 1990s. I think it had kind of reached a sweet spot of being large enough but not too large. I think it’s in no mans land now - nowhere near big enough to have the benefits of scale, but more than big enough to have plenty of issues.

Having said that, it still has plenty of good points.

by Te Kooti | 12th Jun 24, 4:53pm 1718168032

If you live central, yes very much, it's all good. If you have the motorway in your life on a daily basis however, then there are other places I'd prefer including Wellington.

by Let me be Frank | 12th Jun 24, 7:19pm 1718176781

Of course the social and technology changes that have occurred over the past 40-50 years would likely have occurred without the over indulgence of migration.

Moderation in all things.

by Baywatch | 12th Jun 24, 3:41pm 1718163668

Tauranga Zwifter.......and I have heard Tasman is the new Auckland traffic wise...lol.

At least our new Government is concentrating hard on building more roads filled with ICE cars for those that remain here can quickly fill them up.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 9:42am 1718228524

Tasman isn't bad in any way compared to Auckland or Wellington rush hour. It's just a bit of a choke point at Richmond at times and everything grinds to a halt if there's a crash as there's only 2 roads between Nelson and Richmond at one point.

by BlackKrim | 12th Jun 24, 12:41pm 1718152860

Grandad's old axe: still the same place with the same people and values, right?

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 1:02pm 1718154122

I think we are very very lucky in NZ with our immigrants. The vast majority of them do share the same values - they work hard, they don't expect handouts, they don't commit crime, they make their kids go to school, and generally do far better than some of the ethnic groups already here.

by Flying high | 12th Jun 24, 2:24pm 1718159060

The immigrants raise their kids with good standards and ambitions. Much like the christian missionaries by and large did a good job to set a strong foundation. The US pilgrims equally so

by Baywatch | 12th Jun 24, 4:58pm 1718168302

Yer .just had to move on those lazy native Indians first ah, Gods work.

by Simon | 12th Jun 24, 12:49pm 1718153368

"Tighter student visa rules across the Tasman represents a chance for New Zealand universities to recover their international student numbers, according to experts.On March 23, Australia began enforcing stricter entry requirements for foreign students in an effort to drive migration levels down after record-high figures in the years since covid restrictions. In September 2023, net migration had risen 60% compared to the year prior.Prospective students and graduates must meet higher English language standards to obtain a visa."

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 1:06pm 1718154419

Its not genuine University students that Australia is kicking out - its the fake students that enrol in VET private institutions, who are really there to work not study. However considering the low standards of NZ Universities these days, they will probably welcome these people and hand them degrees for having paid their fees, despite not speaking English, not turning up for classes, and paying someone else to do their assignments and exams for them.

by custard | 12th Jun 24, 12:57pm 1718153830

Per the 2024 Budget – Forecast net migration (4 quarter sum, 000’s):

Y/E June 2024 – 105.7

Y/E June 2025 – 56.4

Y/E June 2026 – 43.9

Y/E June 2027 – 40.9

Y/E June 2028 – 40.2

Looks as though the government is aiming at around 40,000 as the new normal – long term average prior to Covid was about 30,000, so moving forward maybe 40,000 would be about right?

Just hope that Erica gets on top of this – so far she’s made the right noises so we’ll see.

by Matt_B | 12th Jun 24, 1:28pm 1718155692

I have already heard complaints on the radio that the new english test settings for low skill level roles.

Making it harder to get cheaper labour.

by interesting1234 | 12th Jun 24, 1:51pm 1718157088

Was there not limits to a max of 40k for residency visas annually prior to 2020 lockdown? Dropped over the a number of years thanks to Winnie P?

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 3:09pm 1718161771

Nope, that was just another election campaign promise that was never delivered. Labour in 2019 oversaw a record number of immigrants to NZ, beaten only by the post border opening in 2022/23.

by malamah | 12th Jun 24, 3:47pm 1718164060

Y/E June 2024 – 105.7

I doubt this is possible. June 2022: 3,000 departures. June 2023: 18,000 arrivals. For us to hit that figure, net 66,000 people will need to arrive in June 2024 alone.

by Thinker | 12th Jun 24, 12:51pm 1718153505

I expect net migration to continue to drastically drop off as I stated a few months ago. Non-NZ departures also now at record highs as the jobs dry up and visas end. Does anyone have stats of the visas getting approved as a comparison?

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 1:10pm 1718154642

One of the top questions now on Facebook, is how to get the 461 visa for Australia (partner of a Kiwi citizen visa). As soon as one of them gets NZ citizenship they dont even want to wait around for the other one to get it too, they're happy to start from scratch in Australia.

by Retired-Poppy | 12th Jun 24, 1:11pm 1718154667

Another reason for Landlords to stay awake at night. Downside potential for rents and therefore yields too ↘️

by MikeM | 12th Jun 24, 1:12pm 1718154728

Good. Lower net arrivals means some NZ citizens might be able to find a job.

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 1:16pm 1718155004

Going by the number on unemployment benefits, outside of Wellington unemployment hasnt gone up much at all (just 3% in Auckland, 1% in Christchurch), and in the rest of the country the number on unemployment benefits has actually fallen since the start of the year. Seems most of these people could always have gotten a job, they just didnt need to under Labour.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 1:24pm 1718155486

Did you not read the bit about all the kiwis leaving the country?

The new migrants aren't eligible for benefits.

by rastus1 | 12th Jun 24, 2:26pm 1718159179

Not so correct.

They are eligible for an emergency benefit.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 3:26pm 1718162776

Sorry, he was talking about unemployment benefit. Is the emergency benefit included in those stats?

by peter.may | 12th Jun 24, 3:05pm 1718161514

Some migrants spend years on a state benefit whilst they "learn English & look for work"

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 5:54pm 1718171659

Well if you recall Jacinda granted every single migrant present in the country in 2021 a permanent residency visa, so yes they do get benefits now. The only ones that dont are the really brand new ones that entered in after the border opened.

by HughJorgan | 12th Jun 24, 1:13pm 1718154788

Tradies will only just be buying their tickets. Still a fair fee months of decline to go.

by Amokk | 12th Jun 24, 1:15pm 1718154935

I have been privy to a few positions being advertised in the company I work for and been involved in reviewing the applications that make it through the first cull.

80% of the applications for each role are from people with working visas looking to get a role so the Visa can be extended with the hopes of ultimately carrying through to residency.

if a similar scenario is playing out in other workplaces it appears there may be many people on Work visas exiting stage left as their visas expire.

by DIYman | 12th Jun 24, 6:26pm 1718173600

As soon as they get the residency , the next step, surprise surprise, is to start up a small business and employ relations and friends who wouldn't otherwise get a job in NZ. It might be taxi driving , or small truck hire, but I've seen enough examples of this to be worried,

by Taxbreak | 12th Jun 24, 7:53pm 1718178816

These sorts of businesses are widespread in the Bay of Plenty - restaurants, nail salons and kiwifruit/horticulture labour contractors being prominent examples.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Jun 24, 8:48pm 1718182138

The Pizza Hutt near me in a student-y part of town is exactly like this.

From what I can gather, the franchise changed hands a while back. Used to be most of the staff were clearly late teens/early 20s uni students.

Now it's all one group, the lady working the till can just about speak enough English to understand I want a cheese stuffed crust, and those students are nowhere to be seen at all.

Don't try and tell me that making a pizza is a particularly skilled job ... at least not the slop they serve up at Pizza Hutt (and yeah I'm aware I'm the one buying it, cheese stuffed crust is a guilty pleasure of mine)

by John Mendel | 12th Jun 24, 1:17pm 1718155078

We need to stop handing out residency or New Zealand will become India 2, also a low level of people = poverty

Do we really want that?

by malamah | 12th Jun 24, 3:49pm 1718164177

Residency approval numbers have dropped right off. One of Labours biggest facepalm moments was the fast track residency. But that's been and gone.

by Eschaton | 12th Jun 24, 6:38pm 1718174305

Another ism man, hanging out in plain view for all to see.

by tis i | 12th Jun 24, 8:28pm 1718180932

I kinda prefer it if they hang out in plain view.

by kiwi_overseas | 12th Jun 24, 1:36pm 1718156217

We need a population strategy. The net immigration rate should be set to help maximise wellbeing per capita.

i.e. (economic + social + enviromental benefits) / population.

economic: unfortunately our capitalist model requires perpetual growth so we need net inbound immigration

social: over successive governments the net inbound rate has been too high leading to a housing and infrastructure crisis

environmental: NZ's environment is already badly degraded. We need a lower net inbound immigration rate at which we can try and mitigate / manage the impacts

I'd give it to the net 12 month rolling immigration rate to the RBNZ as a another tool to manage demand/supply in NZ and also to help manage inflation taking into account natural domestic population increase. RBNZ would set a quota for the maximum number of immigrants.

Employers would have to bid for worker immigrants out of that part of the quota (i.e. not refugee, family reunification etc). This would ensure the workers than NZ actually needed would come into the country instead of the government trying to regulate it.

In the unlikely event net inbound immigration target fell to zero or below the quota price would drop to zero as well.

by interesting1234 | 12th Jun 24, 1:55pm 1718157319

While I agree with the premise of your post in applying a population strategy, the core issue of your suggestion is using the term wellbeing. Wellbeing is subjective and unless defined in a strict, universal and most importantly a measurable way, it will be used as it has been in govt to skew data to fit the intended narrative of the govt of the day.

by kiwi_overseas | 12th Jun 24, 2:21pm 1718158914

It is defined as the net outcome of socioeconomic cost benefit assessment. Wellbeing is a simpler way of saying the former. Treasury even uses it.

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 3:08pm 1718161692

Treasury is just another Govt department that was instructed by the Labour Govt to replace facts with feels.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 3:27pm 1718162853

Sure it was. Care to offer any evidence or is it just your feels, reckons and Facebook group talk?

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 5:58pm 1718171930

The whole concept of the "Wellbeing Budget". Who cares if the Govt borrows hundreds of billions of dollars when all that is important is how happy everyone is?

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-first-wellbei…

Gee, some people have really short term memories of what Labour got up to.

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 8:27pm 1718180821

"Who cares if the Govt borrows hundreds of billions of dollars when all that is important is how happy everyone is?"

Are you talking about National who are borrowing more than Labour/Greens?

by interesting1234 | 12th Jun 24, 4:32pm 1718166729

It is defined as the net outcome of socioeconomic cost benefit assessment.

Do you have a link to verify this, or show the formula used for calculating the socioeconomic cost vs benefit? Genuinely interested and I ask as what is considered a socioeconomic benefit or cost can be subjective also.

by kiwi_overseas | 12th Jun 24, 4:49pm 1718167759

https://www.treasury.govt.nz/information-and-services/nz-economy/higher….

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 10:01am 1718229719

Hmm interesting: from the link:

^{Many factors are considered in the decision-making process. Initiatives are not evaluated on CBAx results alone. CBAx results together with unmonetised impacts, evidence base and assumptions inform value for money advice. Value for money includes strategic alignment with Government priorities and implementation risks, and value for money is considered alongside other factors such as fiscal constraints.}

^{In the budget context, the CBAx analysis is used primarily by the Treasury vote team in assessing the wellbeing impacts for New Zealand and developing value for money advice.}

^{In what way can you use umonetised impacts and assumptions to factor into value for money decisions at treasury level? To what level are these assumptions factoring into policy advice? What assumptions are these? Much to answer for here that doesn't lead to transparency.}

^{I've also had a read through this: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/information-and-services/nz-economy/higher-living-standards/our-living-standards-framework}

^{The LSF adds strength to the Treasury in our role as the government’s lead economic and finance adviser. It provides a framework to understand the drivers of wellbeing and to consider the broader impacts of our policy advice in a systematic and evidenced way.}

How then are they using this in a systemic and evidenced way when they also admit to using a tool, coupled with 'unmonetised impacts' and 'assumptions' to inform value for money advice to govt. This seems to contradict the earlier statements. Having worked for a number of years in several govt departments, I see this as being open to manipulation and not very transparent as it is not rigid, specific and measurable. As mentioned earlier, I still hold the opinion that unless defining wellbeing across the board and being measurable and specific, I can't accept it as being appropriate to use in giving vital parliamentary advice on. There are too many ambiguities currently and I'd be concerned around the quality of advice given to those in positions of power in parliament based on this.

by kiwikidsnz | 12th Jun 24, 1:39pm 1718156364

"Premium estate agent says rich homeowners are leaving for Australia and taking their businesses with them"

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/premium-estate-agent-says-…

by Nzdan | 12th Jun 24, 1:59pm 1718157583

Are these "businesses" taking the clients with them? If these businesses leave, if there's adequate demand for what they supply, then other businesses will surely just capture that market share?

Also, are they doing this because National have been elected? Seems a bit odd.

by Averageman | 12th Jun 24, 2:57pm 1718161058

Medical specialists and top end IT professionals. All 100% transportable to Straya.

by K.W. | 12th Jun 24, 3:05pm 1718161552

No, they are leaving because NZ is decaying economically and socially and they dont want to stick around to watch it become the new South Africa. And if you are retiring you are at an age where access to healthcare is important, and getting sick in NZ is now effectively a death sentence. I dont see myself retiring in NZ either - regardless of who is in charge. It is apparent to me that NZ will never be a First World country, and we are falling further and further behind.

As an example - the other day I heard about a newly arrived surgeon who had to relearn how to do laporoscopic surgery by hand, as for the past 10 years in the US those surgeries have been done by robotics. The lack of modern medical facillities (along with lack of modern drugs, and other diagnostics and treatments) goes some way to explaining why NZ cant attract doctors to NZ, and why our medical graduates are on the first plane out of here before they become unskilled relics of the past and unemployable anywhere else.

by RookieInvestor | 12th Jun 24, 4:31pm 1718166693

What countries have you been to?

by legrandsoir | 12th Jun 24, 8:41pm 1718181690

If NZ cannot attract doctors, how did we attract a surgeon like him?

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 11:12am 1718233974

How long do you think he will stay now that he realises that his knowledge and skills are atrophying in NZ while his colleagues overseas are moving forwards with new technologies and treatments?

by RookieInvestor | 13th Jun 24, 12:16pm 1718237789

NZ is a 1st world country. IMO NZ is nicer than Korea and Korea is considered 1st world.

by Blackdog | 13th Jun 24, 7:17am 1718219825

It’s not National, it’s the 3 year election cycle.

by Chairman Moa | 12th Jun 24, 2:00pm 1718157641

I wish that was true for Mike Hosking!

by redcows1 | 12th Jun 24, 2:20pm 1718158809

Damn. All that trickle down money heading off shore .

Been hearing that BS my whole sad life.

by kiwikidsnz | 12th Jun 24, 2:32pm 1718159573

No one except you said anything about "trickle down". Unless you mean having a job in a business that is relocating offshore.

by Nzdan | 12th Jun 24, 3:17pm 1718162260

Probably just a handful of narcissistic "business owners", like builders, container pool companies etc that got rich screwing everyone out of deposits and didn't really add much value to the country.

"I'm selling up, moving to Australia and taking my business with me". The type of businesses:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300862441/liquidated-container-pool-co…
Former director's house for sale: https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/rodney-district/taupaki/…

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 2:20pm 1718158829

Funny, I thought all the rich people were going to leave if Labour and the Greens got back in ...

by Cobolt24 | 12th Jun 24, 4:20pm 1718166026

The trend of people leaving started at the beginning of 2022

by agnostium | 12th Jun 24, 5:05pm 1718168742

Accelerating now though right? Back on track.

by Cobolt24 | 13th Jun 24, 9:18am 1718227126

No, not accelerating any faster under this govt compared with the last one according to this graph.

Net migration loss of New Zealand citizens exceeds 50,000 | Stats NZ

by agnostium | 13th Jun 24, 11:35am 1718235349

I must be reading that table differently to you.

by Three Veg | 12th Jun 24, 5:24pm 1718169891

Real estate agents love to spin a good yarn.

by RookieInvestor | 12th Jun 24, 4:35pm 1718166905

Migration and immigration doesn't just stop, people have been making plans for years now, I also don't think its a good idea to stop immigration instantly, there is a balance that needs to be maintained

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Jun 24, 4:41pm 1718167301

NZ needs to be very, very careful it is not profiteering from being a 'transit' country.

by tis i | 12th Jun 24, 8:23pm 1718180587

lol. Bit late for that.

by kir10 | 12th Jun 24, 8:01pm 1718179315

Just came back from 6 weeks in europe (35y/o male first time visiting). I can now see how much our standard of living has dramatically declined over the past 5 years. Name any measure and we are just such a poor nation. Health, such as obesity, living costs, inequality. Told the Mrs we will leave as soon as we can (homeowners 2 with well paying career jobs). 24-36 months. Honestly, I am shocked at how far we have declined. The health of a nation is dependent on everyone doing well. We are so far from that for a nation that produces food for 40 million. Furthermore, I can't see how National are going to do anything but make the situation worse. i.e kill more people with smoking, line the pockets of landlords, increase unemplyment o over 5%. I mean the so-called 'business party' giving 3 billion to the most unproductive activity you can think of. And yet cant fund 193 million for cancer drugs...

by Nzdan | 13th Jun 24, 8:37am 1718224655

Tell you what though, it'll be a cruel irony if some of the 50k super-annuitants who are actually still in work earning over $100k p.a. while collecting the pension (collectively costs about $1b per year) end up having to fork out for these cancer drugs out of their own pockets.

No questions asked, $1b p.a. to those who don't need it but everybody else must go without.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 10:06am 1718230005

Imagine what we could fund if we means tested super :O

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 24, 10:11am 1718230291

Hope you had a great trip. I wish NZ would invest more in a train network that was more viable e.g public train network in a spider web pattern for chch to allow the CBD to build and grow without traffic congestion, AKL-WLG trains that would get there quicker to allow folk to arrive nearer the CBD than flying and having to bus in traffic to get in etc. Public transport is such a valuable investment when you see what has been done overseas and the lifestyle it offers when you don't have to rely on driving.

by kir10 | 13th Jun 24, 2:47pm 1718246858

Yes public transport here is atrocious and I 100% agree but no one has a plan to get it built. Taking trains for $50 nz instead of a 4 hour drive is what we should be striving towards. I should have said that my partner is from Czech Republic and my perception of Europe came from her. 2 weeks into our trip I told her how wrong she was about New Zealand being a better place (on the whole) to live. We came to realise just how far backwards NZ has gone in the last 5 years. Whilst many other European countries are grappling with same issues cost of living ect, New Zealand has declined much further than most. Oh and not to mention the standard of service at restaurants...and the food. Since I have been back, I have visited several stores, Rebel sports, Kathmandu ect. Fantastic sales but they are ghost towns. I think this economic downturn will be severe.

by lockdowndays | 13th Jun 24, 10:48pm 1718275719

100%, people just don't know, they are so used to it as it's been getting incrementally worse. Until you leave, then it's glaringly apparent.

by mark_a | 13th Jun 24, 7:07am 1718219224

The sooner we become a state of Australia the better for all….