An average of recent voter polls shows roughly equal levels of support for the left and right political blocs, suggesting a hypothetical election held today could easily swing in either direction.
This should come with a clear health warning, as the three polls shifting the average are not the most high quality. One was leaked by Labour, another was a Roy Morgan poll which often has unusual results, and the last was done by a relatively new pollster.
However, all three show Labour and its allies picking up enough support to match or beat the Coalition parties if an election were held now. These polls mostly came after the hīkoi and around the Government’s one year anniversary.
National won 38% of the vote in October last year, easily beating Labour on 27%, but that gap has since shrunk almost seven percentage points to 33.5% and 30.5%, respectively.
The gap between the left and right blocs has narrowed from 11.2 percentage points in the election results to just 2.5 points in our latest average — close enough that a simple proportional allocation of seats would result in a hung Parliament.
Actual control of Government could come down to whether there was an overhang due to electorate results, or even the specifics of the Sainte-Laguë method used to hand out seats.
The change in the average has been driven by less support for National and more for Labour and Te Pāti Māori, while others have held fairly steady. This could suggest some centrists have moved back to Labour, while some on the left have shifted to Te Pāti Māori after the hīkoi.
Another explanation could be that those who supported National, expecting them to deliver better economic or health outcomes may be frustrated by slow progress on both fronts.
The Coalition increased funding for health in its first budget but that was not enough to offset through a raft of negative stories plaguing the portfolio.
It has scaled back plans for Dunedin hospital after it got too expensive, a commissioner was parachuted into Health NZ after it blew its budget on new nurses, and new cancer drugs were only funded after a big backlash.
An IPSOS poll from October found 62% of New Zealanders believed staff shortages were the biggest problem facing the healthcare system. Health NZ only offered jobs to half the nurses who graduated this year, much fewer than in previous years.
The proportion of people who thought a lack of investment was the main problem increased from 18% in 2023 to 25% this year, despite the funding increase.
Promises to fix the economy have also not amounted to much yet. It would not be rational to expect overnight fixes but voters were promised progress during the election campaign, and the clock is ticking.
The economy is about 0.3% smaller than it was on election day and unemployment is more than a percentage point higher. Inflation and interest rates have fallen as a result of these bad numbers, but the Government can’t take credit for one without the other.
Things are set to improve but nobody is predicting a boom. The Reserve Bank has forecast about 2.4% annual growth for the next few years, but the OECD expects a slower recovery with 1.4% next year and 2.1% in 2026.
Political players have been debating whether ongoing spending cuts will help or hinder the recovery. Macroeconomic theory suggests it shouldn’t matter. It is the Reserve Bank’s role to adjust interest rates to accommodate changes in government spending.
After all, money is simply a tool for organizing and exchanging resources, which make up the real economy. If the Government uses fewer of those resources, lower interest rates should encourage private entities to make up the difference.
But the real world is complicated and economic theory does not always pan out perfectly. It assumes the private sector is willing and able to step up immediately, which may not always be the case.
There may be barriers to entry that the private sector cannot overcome, particularly in areas dominated by the Crown, such as healthcare or infrastructure.
If the Government wants to pull back on spending without killing economic growth, it needs to make sure barriers to private sector investment are cleared — or else face an election defeat in 2026.
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