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National jumps up to 32%, Labour falls to 27% in the latest political poll

Public Policy / news
National jumps up to 32%, Labour falls to 27% in the latest political poll
[updated]
20th Oct 26, 10:41am by Anna Whyte
National leader Christopher Luxon.
National leader Christopher Luxon. Image source: Mandy Te

The latest 1News Verian Poll has National pushing itself out of the 20s and up to 32% support, surpassing Labour's 27%.

National's boost was up 4 percentage points from last week's 1News Poll. Meanwhile, the amount of people who either did not know or refused to answer went down from 12% to 10%. 

National - 32% (up 4 percentage points)
Labour - 27% (down 1 percentage point)
The Green Party - 16% (up 1 percentage point)
ACT - 11% (up 1 percentage point)
NZ First - 8% (down 2 percentage points)
Opportunity - 7% (down 1 percentage point)
Te Pāti Māori - 0.7% 

Translated to seats, the coalition of National (38), ACT (13) and New Zealand First (9) would have 60 seats. However, with a potential overhang assumed by the pollsters, the total seats would be up at 124, rather than 120 - so 60 seats would not be enough to take power. 

Labour (32), the Green Party (19) and Opportunity on (8) would only have 59 seats - also not enough to take power. Te Pāti Māori (4) and Te Tai Tokerau (1) would be needed to form any coalition.

Verian polled 1003 adults between October 15-19, with a maximum sampling error ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

Earlier on Tuesday, the latest Post-Freshwater Poll, funded by Infrastructure NZ, put the Opportunity Party on just 5.4%, meaning if replicated at the election, the party would only just pass the 5% threshold to get into Parliament.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. Image source: Supplied

 

Released a day before overseas voting begins and less than a week ahead of advanced voting, both Labour and National remained wallowing in the 20s.

Labour was on 28.7% and National on 27.6%. Both parties were up 1 percentage point since the last poll in September. 

The Green Party was at 14.3%, NZ First at 11.8% and ACT on 9%. Te Pāti Māori was at 2%. 

The poll surveyed 1,458 New Zealand adults between October 9-19, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Last week's 1News Verian Poll had Opportunity pushing up to 8%. Both National and Labour were again under 30%, both at 28%. 

Earlier this month, the Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll showed National at 28.5%, Labour on 28.2%, but with Opportunity below the 5% threshold at 4.8%. 

Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon are both appearing on Tuesday evening for their final leaders' debate, hosted by Stuff's Paddy Gower and The Post's Luke Malpass. 

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21 Comments

by  Foxglove  |  20th Oct 26, 11:12am 1792447957

Since its first government in 1949 the National Party has completed not less than three terms. If it is returned to government after this election it will largely be on the back of efforts by its coalition partners. In the 2020 election National was deservedly towelled after a series of unsavoury incidents and identities had been exposed. In 2023 Labour got the same treatment for similar reasons. Given the dismal polling by both these major parties it is abundantly clear that the electorate has had enough, more than enough likely, of both of them which in turn demonstrates a rejection of the complacency, apathy and hubris that has seen neither party being prepared to modernise, freshen and energise itself. As the world has become increasingly tumultuous, these two old farts of parties couldn’t be bothered to raise themselves up  to meet the challenge. 

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by  Yvil  |  20th Oct 26, 2:48pm 1792460931

It's a worldwide phenomenon Foxy.  As governments crumble under the weight of their debt and cannot deliver appropriate services to their people, voters look at alternatives that are more extreme.  Look at France and many other countries as examples.

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by  Albert2020  |  20th Oct 26, 5:49pm 1792471783

Not helped by the naive “no new taxes”

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by  linklater01  |  20th Oct 26, 12:11pm 1792451515

It's not hard to understand why National and labour are floundering and we can see where their supporters are going. What i don't understand is the attraction of NZF. Surely it is  party of the past, not the future. I would have expected to see National voters flocking to ACT rather than NZF.

I assume that many Labour voters have headed to the Greens and OP, rather than NZF.

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by  Foxglove  |  20th Oct 26, 1:32pm 1792456368

Perhaps it is as simple as the leader of National,  being so uninspiring, at a time when leadership is of rather vital priority, that it is a turn off. Let’s say, the moths head to the brighter porch light.

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by  JimboJones  |  20th Oct 26, 2:23pm 1792459406

I don't see the attraction either but I suspect NZF are considered the only other centre right party, with ACT being far right. 

And their voters want the past. As with Winston. 

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by  interesting1234  |  20th Oct 26, 2:52pm 1792461169

From the boomers I see voting for him and overly loyal to him, it is on the basis of him having been seen as a handbreak or a spanner in the works of parliament, a screw you to the mainstream, and how he is maintaining the appearance of their demographic: Abhorring change and wishing for a world,and on reflection, their former selves that are long gone.

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by  EpsomArtsandCrafts  |  20th Oct 26, 12:35pm 1792452934

People will realise its a dysfunctional party if you read todays Hearld

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by  Albert2020  |  20th Oct 26, 5:50pm 1792471852

That read like a hit job

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by  JimboJones  |  20th Oct 26, 2:18pm 1792459120

Would be good to have more accurate polling as these ones are all over the place. No point in a 3% margin of error when that is probably the margin between the outcomes.

This poll is 95% confident that Opportunity will get somewhere between 2.4% and 8.4%. That's not very useful information. 

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by  interesting1234  |  20th Oct 26, 2:54pm 1792461279

This poll is 95% confident that Opportunity will get somewhere between 2.4% and 8.4%. That's not very useful information. 

In reality it doesn't matter at all. If one is voting for policies they believe in then what difference does it make what others think?  Unless one has the psychological complex to allow others/external influence to sway their vote based on herd mentality.

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  20th Oct 26, 6:33pm 1792474427

This poll is 95% confident that Opportunity will get somewhere between 2.4% and 8.4%. That's not very useful information

I doubt that you can apply margin of error to these polls. If it it were true random sampling, yes. But polling in 2026 is riddled with sampling / non-sampling bias.  

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by  EpsomArtsandCrafts  |  20th Oct 26, 2:39pm 1792460399

When opportunity only ends up getting 4.2% of the vote and no seats in parliament, lots of people will kick themselves for wasting their vote

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by  interesting1234  |  20th Oct 26, 3:00pm 1792461638

Backwards thinking Epsom and that which has kept us in the grips of the reds and blues for too many decades.
Nobody voting for the party holding policies they feel will benefit NZ, should ever feel their vote is wasted, and to tell them it is, is imposing on someones own view of the world and how they wish it to be. 
Every vote counts irrespective of whom it is for, and while I may disagree with others views on politics, I'd never tell them that exercising the greatest democratic power they are granted was a waste of time based on their views. 
Your line of thinking is along that of "I'll vote for ______ because I expect ______ to be occur after the election, and I'd better not vote for ______ because I cant guarantee it will happen". You betray your own real views by thinking this and voting accordingly.

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by  EpsomArtsandCrafts  |  20th Oct 26, 3:24pm 1792463091

Admirable, but contrary to your assumption, I wouldn't dream of voting for the opportunity party

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by  interesting1234  |  20th Oct 26, 4:31pm 1792467090

I don't assume you would, will or won't vote for opportunity party. There was no implication in my comment. I respect whomever you wish to vote for, as is your right as an individual. The matter at hand was your implication of a wasted vote being thrust on others, which is a fossilised way of thought in todays age.

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by  Albert2020  |  20th Oct 26, 5:52pm 1792471974

The people voting national and Labour thinking they will be getting something different from the past 40 years will be the real ones who will be kicking themselves 

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by  Yvil  |  20th Oct 26, 2:44pm 1792460658

I'm not convinced that TOP will make it into Parliament in the end, despite the fact that they will have at least twice the votes of TPMaori, who will somehow make it into Parliament.

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by  Albert2020  |  20th Oct 26, 5:54pm 1792472070

I think they will get 6% of the vote. Well north of what ACT got to get into parliament. Not everyone has a John Key silver tea spoon to be fed with 

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by  Albert2020  |  20th Oct 26, 6:35pm 1792474529

7% in the one news poll. Not far off. 

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by  nktokyo  |  20th Oct 26, 6:25pm 1792473955

I thought Act would lose voters after the photo op with the mob 

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