The Opportunity Party is out of the Kingmaker position for the second month in a row, according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, while New Zealand First has soared, extending the current coalition government's lead.
The Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll for October shows NZ First up 3.6 points to 12%. ACT is on 9.2%.
National has dropped 0.5 points to 28.5% while Labour is up 2.3 points to 28.2%.
| National | 28.5% | ↓ 0.5 |
| Labour | 28.2% | ↑ 2.3 |
| Greens | 13.3% | ↓ 0.6 |
| NZ First | 12.0% | ↑ 3.6 |
| ACT | 9.2% | ↓ 1.3 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.4% | ↓0.6 |
| Opportunity | 4.8% | ↑ 0.3 |
| Others | 2.7% | ↓3.2 |
This latest poll follows two others released this week - the RNZ-Reid Research Poll had National at 25.9% and Labour at 30.8% while the 1News Verian Poll showed National at 29% and Labour at 28%.
In both the RNZ-Reid Research Poll and the 1News Verian Poll, Opportunity had passed the 5% Parliamentary threshold line, at 5.5% and 7% respectively. These poll figures put Opportunity in a possible Kingmaker spot after the November 7 election.
However, in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, Opportunity was below the 5% threshold at 4.8%. But the poll’s margin of error means there is actually a 42% chance Opportunity is actually above the 5% threshold.
In September, Opportunity was at 4.5% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, reached 6.1% in August and 3.3% in July.
The Green Party was on 13.3% and Te Pāti Māori was on 1.4%.
The combined projected seats for National, NZ First and ACT are 65, up one seat, while the combined projected seats for Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori is 55 (down one seat). Opportunity has no seats in this month's poll.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll calculations assume there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, and on these numbers, National, ACT and NZ First would be able to continue to form a government.
Preferred prime minister
Compared to September’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, Luxon remained at 21.2% while Hipkins was up 4.1 points to 21%.
NZ First leader Winston Peters was up 3.2 points to 13.9% while Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.1 points to 4.9%.
ACT Party leader David Seymour was down 1.8 points to 6.0%.
On what issues those surveyed thought National and Labour were best at - National was leading on the economy, inflation, education, safety, spending, environment and taxes while Labour was leading on health, poverty and housing.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone, landlines and mobile, and online between Thursday October 1 and Monday October 5, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 2.5% were undecided on the party vote question.
Reid Research polled 1000 eligible voters online between September 24 and October 1, with the maximum margin of error of ±3.1%-points at a 95% confidence level.
Verian polled 1004 voters by mobile and online panels between September 23-27, with a maximum sampling error of approximately ±3.4%-points at the 95% confidence level.
On the road
Political parties are on the election campaign trail, with politicians visiting businesses and events, posing for selfies and shaking the hands of many. There's also been a plethora of announcements.
On Friday morning, NZ First announced its plan to ban the public sale and use of fireworks while ACT was campaigning for agriculture to remain a subject in the Year 11 school curriculum.
National also announced a policy, saying if re-elected into government, it'll make security of water and fertiliser a priority for farmers. This includes committing $300 million in concessional loans to get water storage projects built.
This week, National also announced its policy on the welfare system, with a focus on jobseeker support and drug testing, while Labour pledged to give New Zealanders "clearer prices, stronger passenger rights and more choice" when they fly.
Meanwhile NZ First was in the spotlight, not only for its party list, but for an interview with conservative Christian lobby group Family First where leader Winston Peters was asked about conversion therapy law and late-term abortions.
Labour has also announced policies on competition in the banking sector and the fuel market, while National shared its small business plan and promised to fully fund the the Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass in Canterbury.
The Greens pledged to protect the Hauraki Gulf and off the back of its public transport policy, shared its commitment to funding and delivering level crossing removals in Auckland.
People can expect more policy announcements from political parties over the weekend with ACT set to release its alternative budget.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.