Latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows Labour slumping to its lowest result since December 2024, Coalition holds on by ‘narrowest possible margin’ and Opportunity reaches 6.1%

National, NZ First and ACT would be able to form a government, according to the latest Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll, but only by the narrowest possible margin.

Released on Friday, the Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll for August showed National up 0.5 points to 31.0%, while Labour was down 3.7 points to 27.8% - the party's lowest result since December 2024.

But Opportunity Party has seen a surge - jumping up 2.8 points to 6.1% - passing the 5% Parliamentary threshold line.

The combined projected seats for National, NZ First and ACT is 61, down one seat, while the combined projected seats for Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori was 59 (up one seat).

“On these numbers, the current three parties of government would be able to form a Government.”

Preferred prime minister

Luxon was up 4.1 points to 23.2% while Hipkins was up 0.6 points to 19.8%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was down 1.3 points to 10.5% while Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up 0.2 points to 4.8%.

ACT Party leader David Seymour was down 1.3 points to 3.8%.

On what issues those surveyed thought National and Labour were best at - National was leading on the economy, inflation, taxes, safety and spending. Labour was leading on health, poverty, education, housing and the environment.

Last month’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll told a slightly different story with National and Labour within a percentage point of each other, and Luxon and Hipkins within 0.1% of each other in preferred prime minister rankings. The governing coalition’s majority was still enough to form a government.

No party will be feeling comfortable, Taxpayers' Union says

Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said: “Just 90 days out from the election, the Coalition is clinging on by the narrowest possible margin.”

“The big story is Opportunity surging above the coveted 5% as Labour slumps to its lowest result since December 2024," Relf said.

Relf said with the results pointing to Opportunity entering Parliament, no party will be feeling comfortable after this month’s poll.

"Some will be feeling the pressure more than others. Opportunity's gain appears to be coming largely at Labour’s expense, while Luxon will take some comfort from reclaiming the preferred prime minister lead.”

An interesting week 

This poll comes during a challenging week for Luxon. This includes apologising for his remarks at a breakfast hosted by the Rotorua Business Chamber last week, and suggesting he would hold a referendum on MMP if re-elected.

He’s also been accused of inaction. While publicly calling comments from Peters towards Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan “offensive” and agreeing the statements were racist, Luxon would not elaborate on a conversation he had with Peters after the incident.

Peters has remained in his role as Foreign Affairs Minister despite Opposition parties questioning his tenability and as his comments made international headlines.

Asked by a reporter earlier in the week if Luxon disciplined or tried to fire Peters, whether the coalition government could potentially collapse and go into an early election, he said NZ was 90 days out from an election.

“People are going to get their choice to vote on November the seventh. They need to think very carefully about how they vote … And the reality is that New Zealanders get to make their choice,” Luxon said.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between August 1 to August 4, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 2.1% were undecided on the party vote question.