About
bnzeconomists
Latest articles
AU short-end swaps closed down after RBA rate cut and leaves door open for further cuts
AU short-end swaps closed down after RBA rate cut and leaves door open for further cuts
Consensus indicates RBA has left its powder dry to do more cuts; NZ$ hits 3½ year highs against A$
Consensus indicates RBA has left its powder dry to do more cuts; NZ$ hits 3½ year highs against A$
Fears of a Spring slowdown in US growth diminish, US long bonds look likely to extend their sell-off
Fears of a Spring slowdown in US growth diminish, US long bonds look likely to extend their sell-off
Soft AU retail sales report the latest in string of weaker-than-expected data; A$ extends its fall against NZ$ and US$
Soft AU retail sales report the latest in string of weaker-than-expected data; A$ extends its fall against NZ$ and US$
Stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls pushes US 10-year bond yields up to 1.74%; Equivalent German bond yields also higher
Stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls pushes US 10-year bond yields up to 1.74%; Equivalent German bond yields also higher
US jobs report re-established faith in the US and global recoveries, bolstering risk appetite, commodity prices, and NZ$
US jobs report re-established faith in the US and global recoveries, bolstering risk appetite, commodity prices, and NZ$
Market ratchets up expectations for RBA rate cut on back of weak AU building approvals
Market ratchets up expectations for RBA rate cut on back of weak AU building approvals
The ECB’s statement emphasised the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the Eurozone continue to be to the downside
The ECB’s statement emphasised the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the Eurozone continue to be to the downside
2-10s swap yields at lower end of range and approaching levels that BNZ expects will see a steepening in the curve
2-10s swap yields at lower end of range and approaching levels that BNZ expects will see a steepening in the curve
Expectation of further dairy price declines as current supply tightness slowly unwinds; prices still 77% higher than a year ago
Expectation of further dairy price declines as current supply tightness slowly unwinds; prices still 77% higher than a year ago
Chicago Fed index caught traders’ attention with a surprise dip back into contractionary territory; US$ slips against majors
Chicago Fed index caught traders’ attention with a surprise dip back into contractionary territory; US$ slips against majors
NZ 10 year bonds yielding 3.19% and spreads to US and AU equivalents remain at bottom of ranges
NZ 10 year bonds yielding 3.19% and spreads to US and AU equivalents remain at bottom of ranges
Risk sensitive currencies back in favour as US$ shunned; NZ$ strongest performer relative to peers
Risk sensitive currencies back in favour as US$ shunned; NZ$ strongest performer relative to peers
Latest bond auction attracted coverage of 4.4 times with successful bids at premium to mid point in market
1
Latest bond auction attracted coverage of 4.4 times with successful bids at premium to mid point in market
US$ and US bonds suffer following weak GDP release; market concerned about Q2 slowdown in global growth
US$ and US bonds suffer following weak GDP release; market concerned about Q2 slowdown in global growth
Surprise expansion in Q1 UK GDP and outsized GBP reaction reflects investors’ relief the dreaded triple-dip recession was skirted
Surprise expansion in Q1 UK GDP and outsized GBP reaction reflects investors’ relief the dreaded triple-dip recession was skirted
Market pricing in 50bps of cuts in Australia but RBA may not move just yet
Market pricing in 50bps of cuts in Australia but RBA may not move just yet
German PMI data below expectation and manufacturing data showing sector is firmly in contraction
German PMI data below expectation and manufacturing data showing sector is firmly in contraction
Expectation in near-term of demand-supply dynamics normalising leading to higher bond yields relative to US and AU
Expectation in near-term of demand-supply dynamics normalising leading to higher bond yields relative to US and AU
Market still rattled from previous Chinese data; downward surprise in Flash PMI today will impact NZ$/US$ and A$/US$
Market still rattled from previous Chinese data; downward surprise in Flash PMI today will impact NZ$/US$ and A$/US$
Downgrade of UK credit rating helps secure prominence of the few solid triple AAA rated sovereigns such as Australia; NZ benefits by association
Downgrade of UK credit rating helps secure prominence of the few solid triple AAA rated sovereigns such as Australia; NZ benefits by association
Speculators built up net NZ$ long positions to the highest levels on record last week
Speculators built up net NZ$ long positions to the highest levels on record last week
NZ 10-year bonds are now within 5bps of last July’s all-time lows
NZ 10-year bonds are now within 5bps of last July’s all-time lows
US Philadelphia Fed business survey disappoints sending European equity markets and S&P500 on downward path
US Philadelphia Fed business survey disappoints sending European equity markets and S&P500 on downward path
Auction of €3.35b of 10-year debt paid an average yield of 1.28%; German 10-year bond yields slipped from 1.30% to 1.23%
Auction of €3.35b of 10-year debt paid an average yield of 1.28%; German 10-year bond yields slipped from 1.30% to 1.23%