bnzeconomists

BNZ maintains market continues to under-estimate the pace of gradual OCR hikes that will unfold

BNZ maintains market continues to under-estimate the pace of gradual OCR hikes that will unfold

BNZ says Fonterra’s 2013/2014 forecast payout should be well above the current estimate ($6.25 to $6.30) for the season just ending

BNZ says Fonterra’s 2013/2014 forecast payout should be well above the current estimate ($6.25 to $6.30) for the season just ending

For US bond yields to drive higher it will require convincing upside surprises on labour data or direct comments on the timing of QE 'tapering'

For US bond yields to drive higher it will require convincing upside surprises on labour data or direct comments on the timing of QE 'tapering'

BNZ forecasting NZ$/A$ to get as high as 0.8700 over the medium-term, assisted by positive growth and interest rate differentials

BNZ forecasting NZ$/A$ to get as high as 0.8700 over the medium-term, assisted by positive growth and interest rate differentials

The market is pricing in a 70% chance of 25 bp hike from RBNZ in 12-months time

The market is pricing in a 70% chance of 25 bp hike from RBNZ in 12-months time

Asian equity markets cop a hiding with Japan's Nikkei index down over 7%; Chinese PMI slumps showing economy contracting

Asian equity markets cop a hiding with Japan's Nikkei index down over 7%; Chinese PMI slumps showing economy contracting

FOMC will begin to taper down QE if economy continues to recover

FOMC will begin to taper down QE if economy continues to recover

RBNZ survey of inflation expectations shows slight easing in 2-year-ahead expectations from 2.17% to 2.06%

RBNZ survey of inflation expectations shows slight easing in 2-year-ahead expectations from 2.17% to 2.06%

Offshore sentiment towards US bond yields and US dollar main drivers behind NZ$/US$ and A$/US$ movements

Offshore sentiment towards US bond yields and US dollar main drivers behind NZ$/US$ and A$/US$ movements

Moody’s warns the US sovereign credit rating remains vulnerable to downgrade if projected rise in debt levels is not addressed

Moody’s warns the US sovereign credit rating remains vulnerable to downgrade if projected rise in debt levels is not addressed

Profit taking on US$ positions and yesterdays PSI data helps send NZ$/US$ cross rate back above 0.8100

Profit taking on US$ positions and yesterdays PSI data helps send NZ$/US$ cross rate back above 0.8100

Investors pile into longer dated NZ bonds causing flattening bias to yield curve

Investors pile into longer dated NZ bonds causing flattening bias to yield curve

NZ$/US$ below 0.8100 for first time this year as tidal wave of NZ$ selling overwhelms local buyers

NZ$/US$ below 0.8100 for first time this year as tidal wave of NZ$ selling overwhelms local buyers

Budget confirms bond issuance for next 12 months; DMO's desire is for inflation-indexed bonds to reach up to 20% of outstanding bonds

Budget confirms bond issuance for next 12 months; DMO's desire is for inflation-indexed bonds to reach up to 20% of outstanding bonds

NZ in pretty good shape compared to many peers where severe austerity programmes exist; NZ sovereign rating affirmed by agencies (S&P, AA, Fitch, AA, Moody’s, Aaa)

NZ in pretty good shape compared to many peers where severe austerity programmes exist; NZ sovereign rating affirmed by agencies (S&P, AA, Fitch, AA, Moody’s, Aaa)

Sixth consecutive Eurozone GDP contraction amid signs European (and particularly German) economies continue to struggle

Sixth consecutive Eurozone GDP contraction amid signs European (and particularly German) economies continue to struggle

RBNZ data shows 69% of NZ Govt bonds are owned offshore, up from 68.3% previously

RBNZ data shows 69% of NZ Govt bonds are owned offshore, up from 68.3% previously

Rating agencies confirm Australia's AAA status but A$ continues its slide against US$ following budget announcement

Rating agencies confirm Australia's AAA status but A$ continues its slide against US$ following budget announcement

The yield on Japanese 10-year bonds hits 0.80%; If BoJ's policies to stimulate inflation are successful yields are expected to rise higher

The yield on Japanese 10-year bonds hits 0.80%; If BoJ's policies to stimulate inflation are successful yields are expected to rise higher

Key support for the NZ$/EUR cross rate now below 0.6300; Future direction of this pair will be depend on Eurozone data and commentary due tonight

Key support for the NZ$/EUR cross rate now below 0.6300; Future direction of this pair will be depend on Eurozone data and commentary due tonight

NZ 10-year yields rise 18 bps last week and our bonds are following sell-offs in offshore markets

NZ 10-year yields rise 18 bps last week and our bonds are following sell-offs in offshore markets

US economy outperforming much of the developed world and market watchers contemplating Fed’s exit from QE policies

US economy outperforming much of the developed world and market watchers contemplating Fed’s exit from QE policies

NZ bonds continue to trek lower with 10-year bond yields sit within 10 bps of all-time lows

NZ bonds continue to trek lower with 10-year bond yields sit within 10 bps of all-time lows

USD/JPY catapults through the 100 mark on weight of speculative buying

USD/JPY catapults through the 100 mark on weight of speculative buying

Governor Wheeler’s comments about “intervention” appear to have been overblown and misinterpreted according to BNZ

Governor Wheeler’s comments about “intervention” appear to have been overblown and misinterpreted according to BNZ