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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

9 years 10 months

Latest articles

US data undershoots expectations
Significant downside miss in US ISM data, plays into Fed's hands; stronger Chinese PMI data benefits NZD & AUD
2nd Sep 16, 8:19am
by Jason Wong
Significant downside miss in US ISM data, plays into Fed's hands; stronger Chinese PMI data benefits NZD & AUD
Low rate addiction
Bond king Bill Gross adds to voices calling for end to low and negative interest rates. Eyes on US payrolls report. Local swap rates make small gains
2nd Sep 16, 8:11am
by Jason Wong
5
Bond king Bill Gross adds to voices calling for end to low and negative interest rates. Eyes on US payrolls report. Local swap rates make small gains
Volatility index spikes
Risk-off tone ahead of jobs report; NZD top performer despite safe haven buying; ANZ survey shows fall in NZ inflation expectations
1st Sep 16, 8:32am
by Jason Wong
Risk-off tone ahead of jobs report; NZD top performer despite safe haven buying; ANZ survey shows fall in NZ inflation expectations
Flatter curves
Markets see reduced chance of more NZ OCR cuts this year. Business survey shows "improving economic momentum". But wholesale money costs stay low
1st Sep 16, 8:14am
by Jason Wong
Markets see reduced chance of more NZ OCR cuts this year. Business survey shows "improving economic momentum". But wholesale money costs stay low
Positive USD tone
US consumer confidence up; ECB has more work to do to raise inflation; Japanese officials talk down Yen; new record short levels in GBP
31st Aug 16, 8:32am
by Jason Wong
US consumer confidence up; ECB has more work to do to raise inflation; Japanese officials talk down Yen; new record short levels in GBP
No central bankers in a hurry to act
US Fed's Fischer sets less hawkish tone. RBNZ's McDermott says RBNZ will take its time. Only unexpected data likely to move market positioning
31st Aug 16, 7:35am
by Jason Wong
US Fed's Fischer sets less hawkish tone. RBNZ's McDermott says RBNZ will take its time. Only unexpected data likely to move market positioning
Market over-reacted to Fed comments
Treasury yields recoup all previous days losses; tighter US monetary policy prospects gives RBNZ some breathing space
30th Aug 16, 8:29am
by Jason Wong
1
Treasury yields recoup all previous days losses; tighter US monetary policy prospects gives RBNZ some breathing space
NZD recovering
Better risk appetite sees USD trade lower and NZD advance; markets looking to US job reports for directional guidance
30th Aug 16, 8:20am
by Jason Wong
Better risk appetite sees USD trade lower and NZD advance; markets looking to US job reports for directional guidance
Federal Reserve sends mixed messages (again)
Yields collapse on Yellen's speech; market reverses on Fischer's suggestion that Yellen's speech inconsistent with two hikes in 2016; markets to watch employment data for next moves
29th Aug 16, 8:49am
by Jason Wong
Yields collapse on Yellen's speech; market reverses on Fischer's suggestion that Yellen's speech inconsistent with two hikes in 2016; markets to watch employment data for next moves
Case for Fed rate hike strengthens
Yellen offers no guidance on when hikes occurring; sustained rise in USD after Fischer's comments; NZD belted around
29th Aug 16, 8:39am
by Jason Wong
Yellen offers no guidance on when hikes occurring; sustained rise in USD after Fischer's comments; NZD belted around
Bias towards lower rates
Record low for NZ 2-year swap; US rates continue to fall; Dudley's speech suggests Fed not about to hike; Former Fed Chair Greenspan voices concerns US heading for period of stagflation
19th Aug 16, 8:33am
by Jason Wong
1
Record low for NZ 2-year swap; US rates continue to fall; Dudley's speech suggests Fed not about to hike; Former Fed Chair Greenspan voices concerns US heading for period of stagflation
Downward pressure on USD continues
Broad-based selling of the USD; reduced fears of Fed tightening boosts markets; NZD/USD may struggle to push through 73c
19th Aug 16, 8:25am
by Jason Wong
Broad-based selling of the USD; reduced fears of Fed tightening boosts markets; NZD/USD may struggle to push through 73c
No sense of urgency to hike
US treasury yields fall on FOMC minutes; NZ labour data stronger than expected; OIS market pricing in one more OCR cut
18th Aug 16, 8:39am
by Jason Wong
US treasury yields fall on FOMC minutes; NZ labour data stronger than expected; OIS market pricing in one more OCR cut
Dovish tone to Fed statement
USD loses positive bias on Fed minutes; spikey movements in NZD following employment data
18th Aug 16, 8:30am
by Jason Wong
USD loses positive bias on Fed minutes; spikey movements in NZD following employment data
USD pummelled on Fed essay
US Fed’s Williams suggests a change to central bank policy targets, USD sold off; strong dairy auction supports NZD; UK inflation data stronger than expected, GBP up 1.2%
17th Aug 16, 8:22am
by Jason Wong
1
US Fed’s Williams suggests a change to central bank policy targets, USD sold off; strong dairy auction supports NZD; UK inflation data stronger than expected, GBP up 1.2%
An upward bias
NY Fed's Dudley raises expectations of a September US rate hike. Eyes on delayed NZ labour force data which has potential to surprise
17th Aug 16, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
NY Fed's Dudley raises expectations of a September US rate hike. Eyes on delayed NZ labour force data which has potential to surprise
USD losing friends
Commodity currencies picking up gains; punters continue to short GBP en masse; NZD blips up, dairy futures showing strong gains ahead of next auction
16th Aug 16, 8:29am
by Jason Wong
Commodity currencies picking up gains; punters continue to short GBP en masse; NZD blips up, dairy futures showing strong gains ahead of next auction
Big investor pulls back
Yields fall as USTs rally. Blackrock reduces exposure. Down trend pushes NZ rates to new record lows and there is further to fall. Eyes on US CPI
16th Aug 16, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
2
Yields fall as USTs rally. Blackrock reduces exposure. Down trend pushes NZ rates to new record lows and there is further to fall. Eyes on US CPI
Kiwi slides below 72c
Chinese and US data dump weaker than expected; spike in NZD/USD short-lived as Kiwi loses traction; GBP remains out of favour
15th Aug 16, 8:16am
by Jason Wong
Chinese and US data dump weaker than expected; spike in NZD/USD short-lived as Kiwi loses traction; GBP remains out of favour
Saving some bullets
RBNZ's McDermott says markets not paying attention to risks. Rate curve steepens after strong retail sales. Chance of September cut fades
15th Aug 16, 7:34am
by Jason Wong
2
RBNZ's McDermott says markets not paying attention to risks. Rate curve steepens after strong retail sales. Chance of September cut fades
BoE over delivers
BoE cuts by 25bps and expands asset buying program; GBP down 1.6%, NZD/GBP up 2% to close in on 55c
5th Aug 16, 8:39am
by Jason Wong
BoE cuts by 25bps and expands asset buying program; GBP down 1.6%, NZD/GBP up 2% to close in on 55c
2% NZ 2yr swap rate breached
BofE cuts policy rate, adds to stimulus to stem Brexit impact. NZ 2yr swaps dip below 2%, then settle above it. Chatter about an RBNZ 50 bps cut looming likely to push local rates lower today
5th Aug 16, 8:26am
by Jason Wong
2
BofE cuts policy rate, adds to stimulus to stem Brexit impact. NZ 2yr swaps dip below 2%, then settle above it. Chatter about an RBNZ 50 bps cut looming likely to push local rates lower today
Better bidding for USD
US data encouraging; soft wage inflation drops NZD; oil prices rebound 3%; NZD/AUD down 1%
4th Aug 16, 8:14am
by Jason Wong
2
US data encouraging; soft wage inflation drops NZD; oil prices rebound 3%; NZD/AUD down 1%
Aussie bonds the outlier
Jump in Aussie 10yr yields spills over to New Zealand. Yield curve steepens. Shorter end held back by weak local labour market data. But markets don't see more OCR easing as a result
4th Aug 16, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
2
Jump in Aussie 10yr yields spills over to New Zealand. Yield curve steepens. Shorter end held back by weak local labour market data. But markets don't see more OCR easing as a result
News flow hurting USD
RBA cut dents AUD temporarily; NZD & AUD defying risk off tone; strong dairy auction pushes NZD higher; NZD/USD faces strong resistance at 73c
3rd Aug 16, 8:14am
by Jason Wong
RBA cut dents AUD temporarily; NZD & AUD defying risk off tone; strong dairy auction pushes NZD higher; NZD/USD faces strong resistance at 73c