10-year bond rates are lower across the US, UK, and Germany in the order of 3-4 bps and, as mentioned earlier, higher across France (+6 bps) and the European periphery, with Italy and Spain rates up around 10 bps.
European political risk appears to be having more impact on bond markets than the euro at this stage.
In terms of Fed pricing, the OIS market shows 7 bps priced for March and 49 bps priced for the full year.
Thursday's close before the US payrolls report saw these figures at 9 bps and 54 bps respectively.
Rates are lower across the US Treasuries curve, with the 2-year rate down to 1.16% and the 10 year rate down to 2.43%. The latter is about 5 bps lower from Friday's local close, so expect to see downward pressure on NZ rates today.
In terms of local releases, the RBNZ publishes its survey of expectations this afternoon, where the balance of risk points to higher inflation expectations.
Tomorrow morning sees the next GDT dairy auction, where some modest slippage in dairy prices is expected. Neither event should be market moving.
Thursday’s Monetary Policy Statement is the highlight this week and we’ll provide more colour on that in tomorrow’s daily.
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
Jason Wong is on the BNZ Research team. All its research is available here.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.