Stuart Ritson

Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies

Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies

Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction

Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction

Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains

Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains

A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February

A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February

The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose

The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose

Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen

Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen

Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD

Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD

US Federal Reserve, NZ current account & GDP swing into focus after Bank of Japan makes its move

US Federal Reserve, NZ current account & GDP swing into focus after Bank of Japan makes its move

Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher

Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher

Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages

Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages

US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week

US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week

US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress

US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress

US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall

US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall

Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again

Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again

Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates

Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates

There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results

There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results

US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024

US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024

Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields

Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields

The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations

The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations

S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike

S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike

A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data

A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data

Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar

Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar

Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years

Higher than expected US job openings data points to resilience in the US labour markets. UST yields rebound. The Eurozone narrowly avoids recession. Yields on Chinese 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years

Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains

Stocks in Hong Kong surged amid reports that Chinese authorities are considering a range of measures to help stabilise equity markets after a significant period of weakness. The US dollar extended its 2024 gains

The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC

The S&P500 reached a record high close underpinned by a strong performance by technology companies. US Fed speakers push back against near term rate cuts as the blackout period begins for the January FOMC