Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the slowdown in China is being tackled on multiple fronts.
China has pulled the trigger on more generous credit expansion settings. As expected it has cut its reserve ratio, this time by -25 bps. After this cut, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions becomes just 8.1% - that is, on average their financial institutions now only need 8.1% of reserves backing up their lending activity. But in the grand scheme of things, it has been a modest move so far.
Far more impressive is its rush to get big new infrastructure projects approved and underway. They have already approved 32 projects worth NZ$120 bln for new transportation, energy, and high-tech activity. In all of 2021 they approved 90 projects worth NZ$180 bln, so the pace is startlingly faster in 2022. And the private sector is getting regulatory encouragement too. "Multiple tools" is now the catch-cry for how they are dealing with the slowdown.
They need it right now, because the pandemic lockdown in Shanghai is close to causing a widespread business stall there. (Also see this and this.)
Container freight rates out of China continue to fall. But bulk cargo rates have started to trend up again.
Chinese house prices are said to be rising. But the latest data shows them falling in March from February in 38 of the 70 largest Chinese cities, although that does not include Beijing or Shanghai. But it does now include Guangzhou. Year-on-year, the overall increase is now down to just +1.5% and a stall seems to be underway there. Separately, Hong Kong house prices have stopped rising and may also be falling now.
In Japan, updated its population statistics to show it has recorded its largest fall ever. There were 125.5 mln people in the country, down -644,000. Tokyo's population shrank for the first time in more than 25 years, and every prefecture recorded a decline, except Okinawa.
In the US jobless claims rose slightly last week, but an increasing number of those on these benefit shifted into employment, taking the number on them to a record low 1.57 mln as their labour market continues to strengthen.
Even though car sales slipped in March, retail sales of everything else rose at a very healthy rate. Overall they came in +7% above year-ago levels. Without vehicles, the rise was +9.4%. In fact for Q1-2022 retails sales excluding vehicles were up +13.3% from the same period a year ago. That is far more than inflation.
But these practical expressions of sentiment (jobs, retail sales) are not being reflected in attitudes. A steady diet of news negativity is keeping sentiment down, although in is latest survey, the widely-watched University of Michigan survey is starting to reflect a more up-beat sentiment, one that 'surprised' the surveyors.
And this was despite higher American mortgage rates that are continuing the slowdown in mortgage applications. In fact a key measure has now hit 5% for their main mortgage interest rate in an extended sharp runup. Mortgage brokers say in fact it is now at 5.13%.
US industrial production rose again, up +5.5% in a year and the March increase booked a fifth solid rise in the past six months. The rise of production for both consumer goods and business equipment was actually quite impressive in the month, tipping an annual pace of about +15%.
And that was backed up by a strong result in the New York Fed's regional factory survey where new orders and shipments rose strongly in March. Employment rose as well. But there was no escaping high costs, which hit a record high gain.
Maybe some of that is a beefing up of supply-chain resilience. Business inventories rose slightly more than expected, and the inventory-to-sales ratio picked up marginally. But it remains at historically low levels, and therefore not indicating supplier stress.
But a closely-watched freight monitoring service is showing the froth is going out of their logistics industry.
In American financial markets, foreign investors purchased more than US$75 bln of US Treasuries, extending their buying spree. In fact overall capital inflows in the moth elevated February 2022 to the largest ever for a February. Foreigners also purchased US$185 bln or all long term securities, also unusually high. Going the other way, they did sell a net -US$25 bln in equity holdings in the month, but that halved the January selloff.
In Europe, the ECB left all its settings unchanged, inhibited from returning to 'normal' by the sudden rise in risks in Eastern Europe.
And there appears to be a building consensus in Europe that they can cut dependence on Russian energy supplies much quicker than they imagined even a month ago.
In Australia, their March labour market data revealed only minor changes. Employment rose +17,900 to a fresh record high of 13.4 mln, below market forecasts of +40,000, as full-time employment increased by +20,500 to 9,248,600 while part-time employment fell -2,700 to 4,141,300. Their jobless rate was unchanged at 4.0%. Despite all the small gains, the total number of hours worked in their economy slipped, and not for the first time. The March 2022 level is actually lower than the March 2021 level. Plus, total hours worked in March 2022 was lower than for February 2022.
Mirroring the FAO, the UN is saying the Ukraine crisis risks tipping up to 1.7 billion people - over one-fifth of humanity - into "poverty, destitution and hunger". Ukraine and Russia supply 30% of the world’s wheat and barley, 20% of its corn, and over half of its sunflower oil. Prices are rising sharply now, and there is a direct correlation between rising food prices and social and political instability. They see a "perfect storm" that is likely to devastate the economies of developing countries. There is no real evidence yet the developed world has turned it attention to this looming crisis.
Separately, the IMF is meeting and about to update both its economic forecasts, and its financial stability analysis. They are widely expected to downgrade expectations of economic expansion, effectively signaling that the world is entering a stagflation phase.
The UST 10yr yield starts the week on the shoulders of the +14 bps Friday gain at 2.83%. The UST 2-10 rate curve is still at +37 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still at +103 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is unchanged at +257 bps. Just about all the other minor curves are quite 'positive' again. The Australian ten year bond is now at 3.03%. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year still at 3.43%.
This week will set the tone in international equity markets because a raft of major companies will be reporting earnings. If they are weak, the yield signals will compound a fall and a significant repricing event could get underway. If they are strong, it will interesting to watch pricing reactions in the face of those yield rises.
The price of gold starts today at US$1974/oz and unchanged since Saturday.
And oil prices are also little-changed, still at just over US$106/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$111/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today a little firmer at 67.6 USc with all the firming occussing on Saturday. But against the Australian dollar we are a tad softer at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we have softened as well to 62.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 73.7 and little-changed.
The bitcoin price is down -0.8% from this time Saturday at US$40,089. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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91 Comments
The heralds headline article makes for interesting reading....
Liam said he was "a bit worried" about borrowing costs increasing when his fixed term ends next year.
He estimates his annual borrowing costs could jump by an additional $25,000 once he comes off his fixed term.
Liam has turned his garage into an extra room and living space, where he lives so he can rent out the house.
He is worried that rising interest rates and an uncertain economy could make things difficult, and has been putting aside money to help deal with rising costs, but he's unsure whether those savings will be enough.
"If I save $100 a week for a year, that's $5200 - so [$25,000] is a massive amount extra," Liam said.
is this the same newspaper that has been telling us the cccfa regulations have been overtightened?
sounds like he's been lead up the garden path by his old man and his bank
Yeah saw that.
and it made me wonder to what extent has the Herald’s hyping of housing been morally reprehensible?
up to a point, it’s fine to have bullish commentators such as Church and Alexander, but only if that is balanced by more bearish ones.
many FHBs who bought last year will have the awful double whammy of much higher mortgage repayments, and negative equity.
to answer my own question - I think the Herald HAS been morally reprehensible.
Of course…but what isn’t these days? Politicians promising to fix the housing crisis then saying it’s a great thing to have the worlds most expensive houses…Central bankers denying that zero interest rate policies cause wealth inequality…retail banks making record profits from NZer’s incomes from a bubble that risks financial and social stability.
Anyone who points out the risks of this greedy/self interested behaviour is clearly a doom gloom merchant.
But this isn’t just NZ..it’s a global issue - and the key points above correlated to anglosphere nations. Yet we like to look down on other nations as if we are morally superior…and of course we are one of the least corrupt nations in the world (apparently!). But if you dig a bit deeper and can see past the popular narrative, there is quite significant dark side to our national identity and what we think is good.
Not only Liam but many in real estate agents too are worried and hoping for a bailout AGAIN
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300566646/hello-buyers-market-goodbye-s…
"Real estate agents are saying they hope to see more first home buyer activity as the hangover of the badly drafted Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act wears off, and experts believe those who have taken on huge debt burdens will be met with support by banks."
In the article above, it is true that real estate agents are trying to stir FOMO not realising that as of today weekly mortage payment has gone up by 40% to 50% and this rise is not the end but is more to come. So even IF banks become linent, FHB will have to check their finance and pay, getting loan is one part but one has to also serve it. Earlier greed and FOMO was pushing to take risk but now when, one hear stories of those who borrowed in extreme and struggling, things will be different but no harm in real estate agent hoping and trying to whip FOMO again.
Secondly Real Estate agents are hoping for bail out again for speculators and hoping for Jacinda Arden government and Mr Orr to ignite, just like they did using pandemic as an excuse. This itself proves how vulnerable the housing market is that it needs another support even before the first has not ended.
That is an extra 1k a fortnight, how much did he borrow to live in his garage? Gotta feel sorry for these people, after years of being told not to buy as a crash was inevitable, they finally decide to ignore that advice after seeing everyone else make a fortune and now the crash is happening. For some people they may start their adult life with hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative. If house prices really crashed say 50% some could lose close to $1 million.
Jimbo, almost no one amongst the mainstream media or bank economists said a crash was inevitable.
We must remember that the likes of some of ourselves who saw a crash as being inevitable have been VERY much in the minority. And why would someone listen to some random dude called HouseMouse on this non MSM website?
the overwhelming narrative has been that there will be no crash. That narrative permeates heavily through society.
I definitely noticed that the BBQ talk went from “cool I’ve made lots of money on my house” to “this is just crazy and unsustainable’. Of course there weren’t many 20 year olds at those BBQs.
I also noticed the mood outside Auckland was a lot different, they all thought high house prices were great (well the owners did at least), they hadn’t had years to realise just how much damage it does.
Yes I’ve noticed the same…people who in the past about not caring that prices were too high are now vocal in saying that prices are stupid should probably go down so that younger people might get a chance of getting established - these are the views of boomers who previously enjoyed seeing their wealth increase but who are now aware of the financial and social risks it has/is causing.
My 24 year old son said to me yesterday he really hopes the housing market crashes. I agreed with him.
It’s quite noticeable how many of his generation have come to feel that buying a home is a lost cause.
A crash of say 20-30% followed by some stagnation would give them a bit of hope.
he will need a lot more than a bit of hope...a 20-30% correction doesn't achieve anything
the best thing NZ can have is a major crash and reversion to mean so that's about a 70% fall
its going to wipe out people, businesses, corporations and hopefully a class of politicians that couldn't see past their own nose
It's easy enough to do the figures to show that houses are overvalued by approx. 30 to 50% due to non-valued added costs within the system that are only there because of dysfunctional Govt. housing policy.
It's this figure that allows the market to boom and bust by this amount because the market cannot fall any further than this due to the property having a better 'next best economic use' if it was to fall further.
In jurisdictions that don't have this cost built into their system, not only do they not get boom prices but there is very little fall, even in poor economic times, the housing market remains stable and affordable irrespective of the wider commodity market BECAUSE housing is not caught up in that speculative commodity market.
The real focus now should be, when housing corrects to the bottom (wherever that may be), that we make the policy changes to stop a rinse and repeat of the next housing speculative boom. That would mean losses would be locked in for many people, and I would prefer to see some tax break offered on their loss to stop them from becoming long-term victims and therefore needing Govt. support in the future anyway.
But the upside of this reset would see us over time, per household, have a housing to total investment ratio of 35%, like the USA does, ie more discretionary money in our hands to put into other productive investments, saving, our own health and education, retirement, etc. rather than the 65% ratio which we have today, which is almost identical to China's.
Does that mean the introduction of DTI (Debt to income) ratios? When I bought my first home in The Netherlands in 1996 the banks used a DTI ratio of 4, and if your partner was working, a DTI of 5. Basically through this it meant that people on a median income did not spend more than 20 - 22% on their mortgage. A secundary effect was that property developers were focussing on delivering homes in that 4-5 times the median income range and to make it happen it created a lot of innovation in house building in The Netherlands. The flipside was that a lot of homes looked very much the same.
Yes, several of those! And.. a number of those at still privately owned and not obeying to shareholder rules! Those companies are the real innovators and are also able to reduce the effects of high inflation by means of their pricing power. It explains why some small economies fare better (Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Sweden) than others like New Zealand.
The median multiple is more important as when house prices are stable, the banks require larger deposits anyway because the house price won't increase as much via capital growth or inflation so need a decent upfront buffer.
This in effect also causes a defacto DTI when compared to the median income multiple(MIM) eg a MIM of 3x median household income on a $500,000 house is $125,000 and if it requires an industry fixed 20% deposit then the DTI is 3.2.
Basically, if you have the right housing policies in place then you have very affordable house prices, which require a higher deposit, and the DTI will be lower even if it is higher as a ratio than in other jurisdictions.
Lol - and if you read any behavioural finance books (say by the likes of Shiller), then that is another classic sign that a crash might be ahead..that is the collective denial that such an outcome could ever happen. It means society is collectively over confident about one outcome and all buy into that narrative without hedging their bets that the alternative could also be true.
I’ve made the mistake of overestimating the wisdom and moral compass of central banks/bankers the last 5-10 years (not just NZ…across the globe and especially anglosphere nations).
They may have prevented a depression back in 2020…but at what cost and with what consequences? They have created far more damage to our economies through their actions than I imagined would be politically allowed prior to 2020. We will now have to start facing those consequences.
Althought it appears this inflation is their kryptonite. Deflation was their friend because it provided the option to monetise the debt. Imported inflation that is persistently high really undermines that and possibly puts them in an impossible situation.
With that in mind I don’t know what will happen in nominal terms with asset prices…but I do think we have created the conditions for real asset prices to fall and could fall significantly - especially if you consider discount rates are rising significantly higher than cash flows and the sum of those values determine the present value of the asset price.
... the narrative locally still seems to be a " soft landing " ... a 10 % fall at most : deeply in denial , still ...
Covid is still running rampant ... Putin is still destroying Ukraine : hunker down , team ... this ain't no soft landing ... getcha popcorn ready ... things could go pear shaped real quick ...
Mate, we are in year 15 of a traditional seven year economic cycle. A crash was 'going' to happen at some point, but given how much the central bank and politicians of both sides have bent over backwards to stop any price falls from happening, you'd have been shooting at the moon if you'd sat on the sidelines waiting for it.
The only different thing this time is macro-events beyond our poll-driven political parties, who govern for themselves, not for working class Kiwis. If they could still get away with doing what they've been doing for years, then they'd have kept doing it, as per recent comments from our PM and Finance Minister.
Property investors and those wanting house prices to keep going up the way that have are guilty of the same sin you suggest above. They've purchased the rental, then pushed rents up....i.e. grabbed the popcorn and watched their renters suffer. Pretty reprehensible stuff really.
The question should be..."I might have done well....but at what cost to others, what cost to society and the plant" (i.e. the sustainable development model or triple bottom line). But then again, I doubt when speculating with debt, that the cost to society ever becomes a consideration when ones own personal finance gains are the central focus of one's paradigm.
And I've noted a high correlation between property investment and narcissistic personality disorders, where one has little or no consideration of their decisions on the well-being of others in society - they simply don't care.
So has the quality of your society improved or eroded as house prices have gone to insane prices and wealth inequality has exploded?
And who has benefited from these conditions?
And who have been gloating about good it has been to have made hundreds of thousands of dollar from buying and selling investment properties? And who is going to pay the social cost for that?
Yvil's suggestion that a fall in house prices is going to be bad because it is going to hurt a few households...sure that is true....but as you say....looking out your window and take a look at the hurt that has been inflicted on our society as a whole as this property bubble has been inflated, just so that a few property investors can make capital gains. Rising house prices don't benefit anyone else (e.g. aspiring FHB, nor single owner occupiers who buy and sell into the same market).
The best thing, from a utilitarian view, with a long term horizon, is a significant reduction in the price of housing and a reduction in the debt burden that we will otherwise carry into the future.
Correction, I didn't suggest that "a fall in house prices is going to be bad because it is going to hurt a few households", I said it was reprehensible to rejoice in others misfortune.
Also when you say "The question should be..."I might have done well....but at what cost to others, what cost to society and the planet", you seem quick to judge others but do you apply the same thoughts to yourself when you buy products made overseas? made by people who earn $10/day and shipped at great costs to the planet to NZ?
Do you? I don't think so. Easy to judge and condemn others,
So with that in mind, I take that you weren't on here gloating about the massive million dollar capital gains you made on a property a few years ago? Which in turn, becomes the debt of another person who now has to service that debt with higher interest rates?
So your gloating on here is the misfortune of another person. Every gain for a property owner/investor over the last few years, has been a loss for a first home buyer who now has to load up with more debt and risk in the present and future. Financial matters improved for you, while simulatenously getting worse for other people in society. But I don't recall you batting on the side of people who might get hurt by this madness back then...but suddenly you have changed your tune? (its a bit odd...)
I understand your sympathy, but I also think you suffer from thinking at a level of first order effects, and not second or third.
Lol - "Easy to judge and condemn others" - yet you miss the hypocrisy in your original post because that is exactly what you just did.
I see you deflect the question so you don't have to answer it. Here it goes again then:
You seem quick to judge others but do you apply the same thoughts to yourself when you buy products made overseas? Made by people who earn $10/day and shipped at great costs to the planet to NZ?
Do you?
Lol - nice strawman argument (completely different topic). How many other topics do you want to drag into this? The way we treat minority groups? The way we treat animals? The way we treat the environment?
Oh any buy the way, one of the many reason you made a million dollars on your housing investment, was because we used the cheap labour from foreign countries to product cheap goods that we imported to our economy, which resulted in CPI going to zero (i.e. deflationary) which resulted in interest rates going to zero, which resulted in exceptional cheap mortgages, which resulted in massively over inflated house prices.
Want to give you million dollars in capital gains to the poor people in China and Vietnam that did the labour that allowed you to own the million dollar home?
Do you?
So you think you can get away with not answering the question, by deflecting it by asking 4 questions back. Why are you so scared of answering the question? Is it because you realise you are no better than those you like to judge harshly?
You seem quick to judge others but do you apply the same thoughts to yourself when you buy products made overseas? Made by people who earn $10/day and shipped at great costs to the planet to NZ?
Do you?
Lol - your deflection is by completely changing topics from the NZ housing market, to the exploitation of low wage economy workers and assuming they are correlated or the same! Exploitation of low wage economy workers is a complex issue (did you want to start a separate thread about that? If so, please start one down below and we can talk about that).
BTW - its rather hypocritical to say I'm deflecting, while you are in the same post are deflecting away from you original post about the housing market! Yet you don't appear to see that....which makes me think that my role here with you must be to somehow to give you pointers towards an increased level of self awareness. But I appear to be failing.
Lord give me strength.
Yep we live in a world where homes owners have no healthy homes standards guaranteed by the govt and can live in there garages without the looney left jumping up and down.
But if a tenant gets damp windows because they cant be bothered opening a few doors and windows once a day its hell on earth.
They can, but not without sending food and energy prices through the roof.
Europe's dependency on Russian energy has been an issue for decades. North Sea oil and gas is all but dried up. The West have failed in their attempt to achieve regime change in Syria, which was required in order to get a pipeline built from the huge gas fields of the Persian Gulf to the markets of Western Europe.
After decades of trying to reduce dependency on Russian energy, to think that it can just suddenly happen on a whim, without major economic consequences, is naive.
I Don't think there has been a real effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy by the EU as that was always the easy option. Also Merkal thought Putin was basically stable and with mutually beneficial economic relations things would work out in the long term.
We now know Putin is not particularly stable.
Wont be easy, but here's some detail on efforts &, apparently, progress being made.
Agree that anyone who bought specially last year may feel the stress of rising interest rate.
Should rbnz and government do the same mistake of bailing them to delay and create bigger disaster as bigger the bubble bigger the fall - pain which is inevitable
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-rates-increase-thousands-o…
Mortgage on $75000 has gone up from $665 to $1025 and still is the begining of rising interest rate.
All experts who mouthing that interest rate will not rise more because of pain which will force rbnz to stop by themselves or under pressure from government are same people who supported the biggest lie ' Inflation is transitory', forgetting that now it is beyond rbnz to manipulate as fundamentals will run the show.
What are banks plan if all rates start going over 6% and that's what they initially tested the application at?
banks could adjust their margins on some rates to lessen the pain
Would banks do this though?
Are banks going to get the blame for only testing at 6% - was it irresponsible?
Yes, you can't actually get a bank to show you what a purchaser's financials and their lifestyle would look like stressed to say 7%.
But it would be a far more negative lifestyle, and probably not living in the same house, as they do now.
But for all those that are worried - the banks will be fine.
When the interest rate was 3%, banks were testing at 6%. What now when interest rate is already 6% - what rate are they testing now ?
Is it 8% or 10% or more.
Also their is a difference when in theory stress testing is done at 6% and when it actually happens as when they tested since than inflation / cost of living has shot through the roof.
Reality is much harder than conceived in theory when testing.
Wait and watch
This year is going to get really ugly, economically.
My central theory was that this would limit how high the OCR goes, that the RBNZ / government would ultimately do what it needs to do, regardless of inflation, to protect the ponzi.
most have disagreed, and I could well be wrong.
I also believe social economic factors will limit the OCR increase. There will be more fiscal repairs to reduce the influence of inflation like making the decrease in petrol duties more permanent and others but on the flipside it will increase government borrowing. This will counteract any positive effects from stalling the OCR at a lower rate. Also stalling the OCR at a lower rate could influence the credibility of the RBNZ/New Zealand Economy with overseas investors, who will have to buy those extra government bonds, demanding a higher risk (= higher %) premium on those. The overall effect on the wholesale rates might not much different than increasing the OCR to the RBNZ monetary policy level of 3.4%.
The main risk however is with stalling the OCR rate at a lower level is that the period of elevated wholesale rates might take much longer. Regaining the trust and confidence of overseas investors to buy New Zealand bonds will take longer in that case.
For the government there will be a need to reduce spending and therefore their amount of borrowing. There will be a need to improve our regulations of economical markets. Our markets are inefficient and the main driver behind our domestic inflation. Examples: The RMA, the electricity market (fourth highest kwh price within the OECD), our financial markets dominated by Australian banks, our supermarket duo poly,...... This does not mean new policies (and civil servants) but define, measure, analyze, improve and control (DMAIC) of what we currently have. In other words add some continuous improvement to our government!!!!
Those tiny houses too are for million dollar plus.
Anyone still interested in them with 20% deposit will still need to borrow $700000 to $800000. Earlier could buy old decent 3 bedroom house on 600 sqmt section for $800000 - the mortage that is now required to buy shit hole houses though new.
This is how Jacinda Arden government fulfilled its promise to solve housing crisis.
Yes, but the point is you won't be finding good ones in those sorts of good locations for 800-850K. They will be 900/950K plus.
What do you think of these? Designed by a leading NZ architect, in Mt Roskill - still lots of state housing, very much a low end suburb, but at least fairly central and maybe an up and comer'?
Small 2 bedroom townhouses starting from 895K:
Personally, I think this price is crazy. I reckon these could be worth 750K within 12 months.
My bet is $600K in inflation adjusted dollars.
My one and only apartment was bought in 2009 for $179K; it had been empty since built in 2007 when it was advertised at $325K. Almost halving in price. So your $750K and my $600K are both generous in light of fairly recent past history. So wait a few months and if still empty offer $490K and see what eventuates.
"If it has to, Italy could replace much of the Russian gas it buys by boosting gas imports from Africa and increasing LNG capacity, Lanza said, although that will come at a cost. “In two years, Italy could have reduced its dependence on Russian gas from 40 percent to a safe 20 percent.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-turns-to-algeria-to-replace-russi…
In a hopeful 2 years Italy (not europe) may be able to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by 50%....all going well.
This week will be fascinating as Auckland Council consults on its massive changes to the Unitary Plan. Will be interesting to see the views of the commentariat.
I thought the 2020 NPS-UD changes could help support prices, but since the additional changes in December 2021 came in I think it could be a further headwind for property. If, as a minimum, three storey townhouses are enabled across 80% of Auckland’s urban area, there will be less scarcity of sites for dense townhouse development, and if anything the buying frenzy of developers should subside further.
and that frenzy has already subsided because of rising interest rates, soaring construction costs, and falling house prices…
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