US economy shrinks in Q2 despite tight labour markets; China meets to assess stumbling economy; German inflation stays high; Aussie retail staggers; UST 10yr 2.68%; gold up and oil flat; NZ$1 = 62.8 USc; TWI-5 = 71.2

Indeed - I put it down to a lack of professional experience.

Surely there must be some correlation between the business sectors access to cheap/easy money, leading to expansion, right as a demographic pinch is occurring (and COVID accelerated) with boomers leaving the workforce and them being larger than the subsequent generation, at the same time immigration is down, ergo, lots of jobs, right?

On top of, using employment as an indicator of recession seems to be historically accurate given cashflows got pinched faster (unlike now with cheap debt/helicopter) so business expansions were curtailed faster, meaning employment issues came to the fore faster during recessions, where now it seems like it will be a lagging indicator due to the cash on hand and demographic/immigration changes.

Is this making sense, or have I missed something? Seems like if this is near correct, then it will be low consumer demand that will do this cycle in, and in a big way, destroying cash reserves while producer inflation remains high, leading to big layoffs, further demand destruction, and still, mountains of debt (in corp/and retail world).

You forget we also ship milk to China.

I suspect the resiliance and sophistication of our advanced and balanced economy is the envy of the world :)

NZTA told me road toll going to zero too.

It is. 

All fiat currencies eventually go to zero!

More like - will add a zero.

Carlos told me Bitcoin is going to zero.

That's the consensus around the water coolers of the country. 

Not until inflation drops and unemployment rises. Neither of which are currently happening. 

Too many in the major parties are part of those privileged groups carried by productive Kiwis.

This is rubbish. The costs cut were labour costs. The privilege removed was the privilege of lower income groups being able to earn a decent wage.

The aim of the 1980's 'reforms' was to reduce costs for businesses, reduce income taxes for high income groups and transfer those costs to consumption tax payers. 

The social contract was broken and the earning power of future New Zealanders was reduced by selling off state assets at low prices to cronies and foreigners.

There is a parallel between that govt and the present one - both govts are of a mindset to take the assets of the taxpayer and ratepayer and give control of those assets to selected friends.

When consumers resort to costly short term credit for essentials, isn't that a definite indicator that personal situations are very tight? And , therefore, a leading indicator of recessionary forces?  Even if just " Transitory"?

Yes, I feel that this could be balance swapping to a market leader, especially if it allows a lower rate in the short term. 

If this is the case the American Credit Ratings will no doubt be straight on to it having learnt lessons from 2008 (sarc)

Slight physics problem there...a pushed string dosnt tighten or snap.

The RBNZ and gov are almost as ineffective as we are....waiting and seeing what happens....it dont look good though.

Who knows where/when, but my best guess would be:

- OCR increases to a peak of circa 3.5 % by late 2022 / early 2023

- unemployment rises accelerating late 2022/ early 2023, hitting circa 5% (at least) by May 2023

- annual rate of inflation back to somewhere between 3-4% by May 2023

And then I think there’s every chance the OCR will start being cut, through the second half of 2023. If the economy turns to total custard in 2023, then the OCR could be back to circa 1.5% by end of 2023. If it’s only ‘moderately bad’, then perhaps back to circa 2-2.5% by end of 2023.

Now, someone wouldn't be attempting to deflect a discussion, would they?

How about counting the homeless, people who have given up looking for work and living in daddy's basement, people who have been unemployed for longer than 6 months (no benefit for you), people fired from your job (no benefit for you), people working 2 or 3 low paying jobs to make ends meet, the retired and injured military vets, college grads looking for their first job, are not counted as 'unemployed'.  The real unemployment figure in America is more like 20 %.  

Quite right. Onenews had an article last night about the "skills shortage" leading to lack of bus drivers, and vested interests wanting the borders opened. Although they've had a pay rise, people won't do it because it's still low pay, split shifts and you face abuse from the customers.

Another article - the hospitality sector planning to give an award to hospitality businesses who meet their minimum legal employment requirements, so they can display it to their customers. I remember my sister a few years ago threatening to take her restaurant boss to employment court if he didn't pay her owing holiday pay - he paid up but "don't you dare tell the others".

You are right that banking has a terminal problem (although it can stagger on for a while by displacing others).

But: "Governments shall now create the money by spending it into existence, to be spent on infrastructure."

Threrein lies the lie. Governments can neither create mineral deposits, not energy; any more than banks could. So the guaranteed underwrite of their anthropological arrogance is?

Moot.

Bruh just delete the RBNZ and make one NZD redeemable for a fixed weight of gold. Economy fixed.