Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets have reacted sharply to a 'small miss' in the US inflation data. The impact on the NZD has been large.
This small change in the American inflation rate has brought huge reactions. The US CPI slipped in August from 8.5% to 8.3% at an annual rate. Month-on-month the rate rose from 0% in July to +0.1% in August, or an annualised rise of +1.2%. The data may seem tame, but it wasn't the fall to 8.1% markets were expecting and there has been a truly outsized reaction.
Equity markets have dived. Bond yields have jumped. The USD has strengthened sharply. Markets are bracing for a Fed that says it is more determined than ever to squash inflation and benchmark policy rate hikes may now be higher for longer given the policy action so far isn't working, apparently.
The American CPI benefited from sharp falls in fuel cost. But it was food and rent that is creating the latest upward pressure, showing the inflationary impulse is much more embedded that many had assumed. The prior assumption was that falling petrol costs would be enough to quell inflation. It isn't. Core inflation actually rose.
The market reaction seems to be based on the fear that the inflation fight might necessitate their economy suffering a hard landing, and a period of recession.
Meanwhile last week, same store retail activity rose more than +11% from a year ago. That remains much more than can be accounted for by inflation and continues a long run of 'real' gains and far above what this tracking showed pre-pandemic.
The US Treasury tendered a 30yr bond earlier today. It was very well supported but investors extracted a median yield of 3.45% pa, well up on the 3.02% in the prior equivalent event a month ago.
And as at June 2022, deposits at US banks flowed out, falling -US$370 bln to US$19.6 tln. It is the first quarterly decline since 2018 and comes as households seem to be shifting to a more active investing stance. It is an enormous shift, on a global scale. It's even an enormous shift in terms of their economy, equivalent to about 1.5% of GDP.
In China, it appears that another very large hi-profile company is in trouble, mainly because of its exposure to the property sector. This could be another HNA-style meltdown. This company is Fosun International. Beijing has apparently told its state-owned banks and other SOEs to review their exposures to the company. The Shanghai based company was built on debt, and has seen its share price wither by half in the past year. Today's official warnings may trigger some sharp moves when the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opens later in the day.
Economic sentiment in Germany has dived to its lowest level since the GFC, obviously driven by concerns about what lies ahead in a winter without the backstop of Russian energy supplies. The September fall is being described as 'significant'.
In Australia, there are 10.8 mln dwellings. In total they were worth AU$10.146 tln as at March 2022. But by June they had fallen in value to AU$9.983 tln. That is a loss of value of -AU$162 bln - or -AU$1.8 bln per day.
Staying in Australia, that value retreat hasn't hurt business confidence - yet. The widely-watched NAB business sentiment survey for August improved, with conditions holding high and confidence improving. Westpac had a consumer sentiment survey out too, and that improved as well.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.42% and another +6 bps firmer from this time yesterday. We are approaching the June 13 recent peak of 3.49%. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more much inverted at -33 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also more inverted at -32 bps. But their 30 day-10yr curve has steepened, now at +93 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +9 bps at 3.70%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 2.67%. But the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today at 3.92%, a -4 bps fall that really happened yesterday and which is sure to be erased when trading restarts today.
Wall Street has opened its Tuesday trading in full fright mode, down -3.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is down -4.4%. Overnight, European markets were all about -1.3% lower. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.3%. Hong Kong was down -0.2% and Shanghai were closed up an insignificant +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session up +0.7% but the NZX50 ended down -0.4%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1704/oz and down a sharpish -US$25 from this time yesterday. But that was a minor fall compared to some other precious metals.
And oil prices start today -50 USc lower at just under US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$93/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today sharply lower at just on 60.1 USc and an overnight fall of -1½c from this time yesterday. That is a 28 month low. Against the Australian dollar we are down at 88.9 AUc and a -½c fall. That is a nine year low. Against the euro we are also -½c lower at 60.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.8 and a fall of -90 bps over the past day. The last time we were this low on the TWI-5 was November 2020.
The bitcoin price is now at US$20,747 and a sharp -6.7% retreat from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just over +/- 5.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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89 Comments
Interesting analysis on real estate :
If in China Real Estate is one third of economy, how much is it In NZ.
What is happening in China, can it unfold in NZ.
Many thought that NZ housing miseries are, if not at the end of the tunnel, atleast near to the end but it seems that it is at the beginning of the .......and worse is about to start.
Is it trying to be positive and find hope.....https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117587/more-properties-offer-and-mo…
We're a species that tries to make sense of the world using relational comparisons, finding patterns, etc.
However no two market instances are the same, and that's how we can distinguish an Irish bubble from a Japanese one and the Great Depression.
There's elements of the same issues in China in NZ, but equally important a large raft of distinctions. Did we only industralise in the last few decades? Do we have an open democracy or is information closed? What percentage of our buildings are empty? What's our population doing?
So anyone's guess really.
...NZ has de-industrialised over the last few decades as our manufacturing sector has exited offshore in the face of both globalisation facilitated by the Internet & National & Labour's unsupportive policies, our democracy is increasingly closed off by niche racist policies & the OIA is a lip service joke, commercial property vacancy rates are increasing, our population rate of increase is declining rapidly...
Agree pa1nter.
Does anyone know what percentage of economy in NZ is housing ????
When the information coming out of China is suppresed information, one wonder what the true damage will be as what happens in China, will have ramification round the world and more so in countries that rely heavily on China - Question, where does NZ stands ?
This species says the relational comparisons are all the same, too much debt (money creation), too much government deficits (money creation) and central banks failed experimental Keynesian policies. Inflate or bust.
So anyone's guess really.
Very true, therefore there is in fact a chance that our property crash (correction) could make Irelands look like a minor hiccup.
There's chances of many things. Russia could vaporise Eastern Europe and block out of the sun.
Ok, yeah.................I thought we were being serious, my bad.
We are, aren't we?
There's chances of an almost infinite number of outcomes.
There's outcomes we would prefer.
There's outcomes that are more likely.
From where I sit, NZs housing problems seem small potatoes, and I fear we have an incredibly fragile way of life that's held together with bluetack.
Most of the time, catastrophising is usually met with underwhelming outcomes.
Shelter is 33% of the U.S CPI and is still a lagging indicator at +6.2% YoY. Bond market now telling the Fed it has no choice but to nuke inflation. The U.S dollar wrecking ball is swinging hard now, NZD purchasing power about to implode. If you aren't out of risk assets yet, I'm sorry but it's too late.
Just a day of reckoning for a small island nation in South Pacific that has been living beyond its means, using debt and selling off the family silver to pay for large current account deficits.
What's worse is NZ is importing more consumers who will happen to work in inward-looking sectors and add further to the deficits.
That's nonsense Advisor. We had/have one of the best public debt ratio's of any developed economy and were by and large a well run, balanced, export led economy.
The Covid response has proven to be a catastrophic disaster, disrupted supply chains, QE, pumped up asset bubbles, closed borders. In hindsight, an unmitigated disaster. We have not sold the silver to pay for current account deficits. Inflation will work it's way through the system and we will be left with a lower standard of living. Even at current monetary policy settings, inflation will return to target.
What is a disaster though is the LSAP. Currently a $1,700 loss for every man women and child in the country for almost no benefit. A weighted average yield on $52b bonds of around 1% for which we pay OCR on the settlement cash - which could be as high as 4% now.
In hindsight, an unmitigated disaster.
Not just in hindsight; it was pretty obviously going to be an unmitigated disaster in foresight also, and widely heralded by every *actual* expert in the field. Which is why lockdowns were never part of any pandemic plan anywhere in the western world.
Yet we collectively threw out every preparatory provision on a whim and took our cues from a despotic communist regime. And here we are.
The border shutdown has been more of an socioeconomic suicide for us than many other Western nations. Everything from the bulk of our service exports (tourism, travel, export education) to workforce across all skill levels in NZ are dependent on people moving across our borders.
To Te Kooti's point, we are not an export-led economy and weren't one before the pandemic either. We ranked #36 on total exports per capita in 2019, faring worse than Australia which had 36% larger export per capita than us.
Those figures are disingenuous Advisor, apply some intellectual rigour. Many are financial services or commodity exporters (Iron Ore, coal). Also a raw 36 puts us in the upper quartile.
Ireland, Lichenstien, Switzerland, Puerto Rico, Lux, HK, Sing - all low tax havens for corporates and generate no tangible exports.
Yes upper quartile if you are keen on including the likes of Somalia, North Korea and Burundi at the tail end of the list. Yay us!
Otherwise, you'd struggle to find smaller, high-income OECD countries find under #36.
Many are commodity exporters (Iron Ore, coal) you say - as compared to us, selling microchips and aircrafts to the world? Oh no, bulk milk powder.
Not much intellectual rigour needed to see the obvious holes in your arguments.
No the hindsight is a Big Pharmaceutical profit driven company, locking us up to perform a failed experimental gene therapy on an ignorant population, paid to stay home and live in fear, by a despotic communist regime, living way above it's means. Covid was a convenient excuse to print money and the experiment still has a long way to go.
Covid was a problem. But the disaster was generated by Grant Afterpay Robertson.
Yeah its going to get ugly from this point onwards. Thought we would make it into 2023 before it imploded, especially about 6 months out from the election when things fall off a cliff anyway as people put everything "On Hold" while they wait for a result. Labour are truly toast we are going to be shipwrecked before the next election.
Before the election, preapre to receive dole...dole...and....more dole or some other form of benfit as anything for power to get votes.
Current Democracy = Vote Bank Politics
How about an extra holiday ?? The people will vote for that whatever the reason.
'may now be higher for longer given the policy action so far isn't working, apparently.'
You can't shift a truck, by pushing on a piece of limp spaghetti. This is the inevitable EROEI (or ECOE - https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/02/02/118-good-idea-b… ) curve back upwards.
And I note the recent selectivity of 'petrol'; it's diesel is the key.
It is getting close to the root cause, but still avoids it. At least the article does say travel must be curtailed. That's going to be a bitter pill to swallow in an egalitarian world, and i can easily envisage the proletariat push back hard against the wealthy and political classes, as they lose the right and ability to travel while watching the spoilt wealthy and politicians carrying on as usual. So not really going to happen, and then they get forced to discuss the REAL problem as the bottom of this all - population size!
Having just sailed to Fiji I suggest we move to more slower and enjoyable travel mode..the customs clearance is something to be enjoyed as well.
Good call, Im off doing the same next year for an indefinite period, circumnavigation or bust.
At this rate, 10% is almost there..
"The prior assumption was that falling petrol costs would be enough to quell inflation. It isn't. Core inflation actually rose."
Why would falling petrol costs affect core inflation?
I wondered that ,also.
Investopedia defines core inflation as "
What Is Core Inflation?
Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services, but it does not include those from the food and energy sectors", so ,excludes petrol
Fuel is an input expense on almost everything, so when fuel goes up it filters into pricing but rarely when fuel drops in price does that downstream pricing recede.
But it should slow the increase in pricing
Perhaps the wording is off, but my take was that falling petrol prices weren't enough to reduce overall inflation - because of the rise in core inflation.
Petrol affects inflation not just directly but also because many goods and services are transported using vehicles which consume petrol. So in theory a portion of the increase in food costs is the petrol used to transport bananas from Central America to the supermarket you buy them at. Therefore, if petrol goes down in price, the price of the bananas should go down in price (hahaha).
Food is omitted from core inflation, too.
And the contribution of fuel costs in all other goods is relatively small.
The overall point is that the statement doesn't really read correctly.
Disagree!
all goods have a chain of fuel (mostly Diesel) related inputs from raw material to a consumers home
Shouldn't that be "diesel" prices. Global diesel prices are still at elevated levels and have little reason to drop as most of the global heavy crude producers and refiners are facing supply challenges.
I used “petrol” as a catch all for any type of fuel derived from oil. Transportation or oil derived energy is an input into most goods and services.
You confuse petrol with diesel - Ship & Trucks run on diesel as do trains, petrol costs reflect mainly personal travel by car.
Why would falling petrol costs affect core inflation?
Only a fool, or an economist, would have to ask.
But as I pointed out upthread - Diesel is the kicker. Ultimately, it's energy that underwrites economic activity, 100%. There are a remnant few, who cling to the belief that energy is only this or that minor part of total activity. Try doing anything without it.
Everything is built on debt. Net debt will never be repaid because is cannot be.
Because interest was never created when the debt was issued.
Yikes. Substantial drop for NZD overnight.
NZ dollar in lock step with US equities. Has been for a year.
The drop in the USD is huge for the NZ economy and is the worse case for NZ Inflation outlook.
The overnight drop was also overdone - we dropped against the Yen, and the Japanese are even more bjorked than we are.
I'd expect a bit of buying today once the Asian markets wake up and realise there's a bunch of stuff marked down cheap for the snaffling, our currency included.
NZ is not at all Bjorked, as you put it. Our exports are going gangbusters. Our tourism is going gangbusters. A lower $ means easier to do both, and harder for those who import rubbish, and for us to travel overseas. A win win situation. When J and G go next year, and we can import people from poor countries for our health, agriculture, and tourism sectors again, away we will go even more hard out. We may even be able to pick up a cheap property or two over the next year before the graph starts going back up again! Can't wait.
This has been clear for a few years now, but it hasn't sunk in yet for everyone.
the NZD is traded internationally as a risk-on asset, it's that simple.
and I believe the bucket that the NZD trades with (unprofitable tech, junk bonds etc) is in for a long, long period of decline.
Interest rates here have to not just keep up with but exceed whatever the Fed is doing. And the Fed is not going to pivot, because the markets still haven't accepted that inflation is real. Who knows when reality will set in?
And oil prices start today -50 USc lower at just under US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$93/bbl.
Potential government short covering action puts a bid under WTI.
Biden Admin Reportedly Ready To Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve At $80/BBL
Good Morning from #Germany where #inflation resumes uptrend. Consumer price inflation in Aug accelerated to 7.9%, the same registered in May, which is highest reading since 1950s. Energy prices rose 35.6%. Food prices also increased above avg, posting 16.6% YoY increase. Link
NZ$/US$ = 0.5990.
Gold down US$23 but up NZ$30.
How long until petrol follows gold's trend and hits NZ$4 per litre? Unless..... Adrian goes extra hard.
But oil prices down
All asset prices in US$ terms are going to fall. All of them.
Jerome Powell has a lot more work to do, that's obvious now, and to keep the NZ$ afloat the RBNZ is going to have to hike harder than expected, and faster. That may support our import capacity (keep import prices steady) but local assets are going to get the double-whammy - higher debt costs and lower nominal prices as current holders of whatever-it-is, sell to pay the increasing bill demands.
Just yet another opinion, of course.
He’ll hike until he doesn’t. And the trigger for the ‘doesn’t’ will be a sharp USA recession. Both the Fed and the RBNZ will be cutting interest rates by mid 2023.
In a Financial World where market movements are measured by the milli-second "mid next year" is light years way.
It's what happens in between times that matters. Hold on, by all means. But I'll suggest it's going to be a terrfying holding period.
So you are saying inflation will be tamed by mid 2023?
I think if housemouse's prediction does happen, then that means Global economy would be in depression by early 2023, then by mid of 2023, central banks would start cutting rates. We are talking about bringing inflation rate from 8% back to 2% - 3% range in this period of time, this is only achievable through a global depression in my opinion, which why I don't think housemouse's prediction is right. I don't think setting OCR or Fed's rate around 4% would cause a global depression. 7%, sure, that's possible. but 4%? Nah...
I'm in agreement with you - everytime HM says that particular prediction, it's backed by ... hopeful statements. It's not like that inflation took a short time to get here either - it's been simmering away for a while, and I don't see it reducing anywhere near the pace of increase. And even once it starts to retreat, expect to see interest rates held for a decent length of time to ensure its dealt with.
‘It’s backed by …hopeful statements’
Actually I have provided rationale several times.
Was reading the Zoltan Poszar piece a few weeks back. His view that the Fed will need to hold their funds rate at 4-5% for years to remove the aggregate demand from the economy and may induce a depression. This he thought might be the only way to get inflation back into the mandated band. Peter Schiff has been saying something similar - and the risk is that if they don't fight inflation - which is possibly the case, then the US risk hyperinflation (but I always take Schiffs comments with a grain of salt).
I guess this is the opposing view to HM - I don't know who is going to be right.
Schiff has been more correct than not. He has been saying form many years that the asset bubbles will blow and the after effect will be inflation and an inability to raise rates high enough to contain it. I see this unfolding now, I would not be surprised if his gold and btc predictions are also proven correct.
That inflation will come back to its target range of around 2% by mid next year (from the 7-8% current level) is a very heroic assumption, completely at variance with the forecast by the swap markets consensus and all major market operators. Only a 1929-like depression, or a kind of repeat of the GFC, might possibly make this true.
yes -- crude at the same price as it was back in February -- but the Kiwi $ decline means we are still paying way more for fuel even with the supposed 25cent tax reduction- ( increase in fuel company margins)
I doubt if even another 3% rise would be enough to combat the global factors especially the US$ rise- and lets not forget that Europe is heading to winter - and the fuel / winter heating crisis is only just about to start -- and with Russia's reverses in Ukraine -- Putin is unlikely to keep the taps on !
NZ$/US$ = 0.5990.
New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (^NZDUSD) forward rates have turned positive out to 1 year, beyond one week. Thus USD interest rates expected to be higher than NZD equivalent over this period.
And for the 17th straight month, Americans' wages lost ground relative to the cost of living.
Green diktats hoist with their own petard.
"If we want to transfer just the passenger vehicles to electric vehicles globally, we'll have to mine more material than there's ever been mined in the history of the world," said Mr Sobotka, who is also chief executive of Eurasian Resources Group.
ESG rules, which encourage investors to put money into green and socially responsible projects, are starving new mining projects of funds because they are perceived as dirty under current rules.
That is choking off the supply of key metals needed for batteries, sending prices soaring. Lithium hydroxide prices shot up last year, quadrupling as demand outstripped supply.
Mr Sobotka estimates that 60 new lithium mines will be needed in the next 10 years to keep up with demand for metals from battery producers. An additional 17 new cobalt mines will also be required, a rate of investment that has “never been done in history”, he said. New mining prospects typically take five to seven years to set up.
...The investment case for lithium, cobalt and other metals are rising up the ESG agenda, Mr Sobotka said, but “it doesn't actually translate into more investment from the capital markets”. The value of the entire industry is dwarfed by the valuation of companies like Tesla."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/11/city-net-zero-rules-ris…
More evidence EVs are not really a solution to transport emissions.
Shared mobility, ebikes and micromobility, public transport and less overall travel is what is required. Unless NZ gets on board quickly with action to support this move we're going to be stuffed. The transport sector is looking down a similar barrel to the housing sector (NZ is diffrunt ... NZ's love their cars ... then we'll suddenly hit the wall and have no resilience to adapt)
But can't we just offset the need for lithium and cobalt?
I really can't see what you suggest being taken up by the great majority. You only have to look at some of the comments directed at PDK to see the denial of finite resources being a common held position.
There's also a "commonly held position" that resources are finite including PDK: however, there's little/no acknowledgement of the vast untapped reserves of eg. solar, wave/tidal, wind, hydro, hydrogen, nuclear etc etc energies available. I have confidence that in time, the human race is capable of significant innovative effort & re/invention of energy technologies to access these & ensure it's own survival.
Sure it is but not with the current world population or another couple of Billion people which is the way its still heading towards 2050. You need energy to create the renewables in the first place. Solar panels and wind turbines do not get made without fossil fuels. If you basically accept that all the 3rd world countries are going to get wiped out and the world population is going to take a massive dive then sure its all good.
I don't know the current stats (maybe PDK does?), but in 2011 the world threw away approximately 30% of all food produced. We're not starving in a hurry.
Though, I do wonder if we'll find a new use for NZ pines in large wind-powered cargo boats (have to accept slower supply chains though)?
Sure, but that output is dependent on fossil fuel inputs for transport / farm equipment, a lot of fertilizers, pesticides etc. Should they decline in availability, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to produce or transport as much food.
That's right Plutocracy, it all comes down to our production ability which requires huge amount's of input's as you rightly point out.
Correct Carlos, and it is not just that you need energy to make renewables you also need materials, and materials for renewables are becoming scarcer and not scalable for the amount of renewable energy that would be required. We will need to consume less energy and materials, hence why private cars will decline. We either get ahead and prepare for it or wait until it's forced upon us. This is a great episode on minerals blindness. It is bookmarked so you can just listen to the bits your interested in but I would recommend listening to the whole thing
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/19-simon-michaux
Cobalt is already unnecessary, LFP and LFMP battery chemistries don't need it and are quite adequate for most EVs, and lithium will be replaced by sodium chemistry, or solid state batteries in the next decade.
Good luck with that. We might have useful public transport in Auckland by 2080 at this rate, just take a look at the CRL. And smaller centres.. not going to happen, a public transport in Otarohonga makes zero sense.
Battery technology is likely to improve in terms of energy density so resolve range anxiety etc but without generation & distribution it fails to solve the problem of electric vehicles. The pragmatic way is Hybrids which will also benefit from improved Battery technology without requiring significant increases in generation and distribution, an PHEV with a 100Km range charged overnight will satisfy most requirements and night time power currently unused becomes additional revenue and reduces waste power. Major Car makers - Honda/Toyota & Mitsubishi have already recognised this and I would bet on their opinion than entire global political class.
Err, a hybrid charged at night is no different from an EV charged at night in terms of power generation in theory. 40kms of driving that day = 40kms of electricity going back into the battery whether its a plugin hybrid or full EV.
But real world, a hybrid is almost always significantly worse. Many hybrids are so inefficient in electric mode they are a joke. Eg the new outlander has a 20kwh battery and an all electric range of 84kms. It should be at least 120kms for 20kWh. Toyota RAV4 plugin 74km from 18.kwh battery. Thats barely breaking 4km per kWh. should be over 6 real world, and over 7 when it comes to official range figures (which are mostly BS, both with EV and ICE)
RBNZ had already signaled that it would continue to hike rates even if Fed began to ease, but higher rates in this country now look baked in. 75 point rise next month now looking likely.
housing is toast
brace, brace,brace
So is our transport system, it's too heavily reliant on travel by private car and freight by truck ....
People have forgotten that there's a reason property has always been cheaper in rural areas and outer suburbs, and it's not just proximity to cafes. The cost of transport can be a huge chunk of income.
It's about now I'm fairly pleased that I bought a smaller but much more centrally-located property a few years ago. Lots of friends and family have moved to various Chch satellite towns (Rangiora, Rolleston etc) but are now stuck with long and increasingly-expensive commutes. Mine is 10 minutes door-to-door on the eBike.
Meanwhile there's a set of tracks complete with a station in Rolleston, that if you followed would take you into Riccarton/Addington and Moorhouse Ave. And another set of tracks from Rangiora down lineside road that would take you into Riccarton/Addington.
Obviously no rolling stock and cost benefit ratios come into play e.g. Rolleston (and Rangiora's) population is less than Masterton's.
Not going to happen Joe, have been calling up to a 1% rise a few times now and the RBNZ don't have the balls. They are trying the gently gently approach by just slipping in the 50bp rises at every review in the hope nobody takes notice. Expect another 1% total by Christmas however.
Hopefully there will be a wakeup call for people who believe supply chain issue as the cause of this inflation and hope for lower interest rates next year. Clearly inflation is more persistent than most people have expected, and interest rates will continue to go up and stay high for a long time!
so the market opportunities from leverage return
EU Weighs Price Cap on Power From Renewables, Nuclear. Eyes up 33% levy on extra profits from fossil fuel companies.
And that is supposed to solve the energy price crisis?!
Looks like it will be good to stay in KiwiSaver cash fund for a while, and hold off on buying shares.
HM thats very unadventurous of you
Good time to start a new business - something green with ESG marketing upfront, print a few AirNZ carbon credit certificates, give it a maori name (although make sure you get an endorsement of course), mention climate change and also primary production in the blurbs and then you can apply to Wellington for funding - MPI, ECCA you name it plenty of Govt depts making grants and loans
The signal for an actual end to inflation, rather than wishful thinking about it, will be when 'tech' shares drop >50%. Money is still being pumped into the slot machines that paid out so well over the last decade, even though they cannot deliver profitability or the necessaries of life. The misallocation of capital will continue, and there will continue to be relative underinvestment in essentials - and thus inflation - until those in charge of investing our money realise that they'll make more putting it in businesses that deliver real things.
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