Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news it is a week where central banks in China, New Zealand, Sweden, South Korea, Turkey, Malaysia, and South Africa will be deciding on the course of monetary policy.
In China, their housing market is retreating, with no sign buyers are ready to return to their damaged market, no matter now much Beijing throws developers in rescue funding.
Not helping is a surge in the pandemic spread there. China’s new daily Covid cases jumped above 25,000 yesterday and a six-month high. Guangzhou had the highest tally, with more than 9,000 new cases among its 19 million residents. It is not a high load, but the impact is enormous given their official response to any infection. It is a pall that hangs over the entire global economy.
Inside China, there are calls to ensure the 2023 growth target is set no lower than +5%.
There was a general election in Malaysia over the weekend, with four candidates vying for the top job. Two are claiming victory. It looks like the Islamist PAS party in Muhyiddin's Perikatan grouping, securing the largest number of seats of any single party, and that Perikatan group saw sizeable gains. Malaysia seems more divided than ever.
In the US, the Fed has been assuming banks have much more liquidity than they need, as it starts reducing its US$9 tln balance sheet in a reservoir draining plan. This excess liquidity is assumed to make the Quantitative Tightening process run smoothly. But now some influential insider economists are wondering if that will be so. They see the US banks responding to the change in their excess liquidity, rather than the amount of it. If that is the case, there may be bumps in the road if the trading banks over-react to the Fed's pullback. Certainly worth watching. Large American banks may be hooked on a liquidity drug.
And staying in the US the only significant data out over the weekend was its October existing home sales outcomes and that was weak, like all recent housing data from there. They are now openly calling this market in "a slump", with volumes down almost -6% from the prior month and almost -30% from a year ago. The downshift is building as this is the ninth straight month of falls and apart from the pandemic, these sales levels are at decade lows. But at the moment, sellers are holding off making deals, so prices are holding for the sharply fewer buyers who need to buy.
The relatively sudden pullback by a range of large tech companies, and the resulting layoffs, may be starting a similar track on their labour market. Twitter is the icon here, but certainly not the largest.
Talk of a 2023 US recession is rising, with fears built on a turn in their long-resilient labour market.
In Canada, the pressure on producer prices is not easing, with unexpectedly strong hikes in October from September, and from a year ago.
The CPI inflation rate in Japan climbed to 3.7% in October from 3.0% a month earlier. This was the highest reading in 40 years, and comes amid high prices for food and raw materials, as well as persistent yen weakness. Speculation is rising that the Bank of Japan is about to change course, but of course there is a very long track record of commitment to the current ultra-loose poilcies.
In Europe, economic prospects seem to be improving, helped by a milder-than-expected winter, lower energy costs, and a faster-than-expected building of energy resilience away from Russia. The overall EU contraction is now likely to be very minor now, "with risks tilting to the upside".
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.83% and up +1 bps from Saturday and basically back to where it was a week ago. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -70 bps. And their 1-5 curve is unchanged at -74 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is holding at -3 bps. The Australian ten year bond is unchanged at 3.64%. The China Govt ten year bond is also little-changed at 2.84%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today also unchanged at 4.22%.
The price of gold will open today down -US$1 at US$1751/oz. A week ago it was at US$1766/oz.
And oil prices start today up +US$1/bbl from this time Saturday at just on US$80/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$87.50/bbl. These are still approaching -10% falls for the week.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61.5 USc and little-changed. Against the Australian dollar we are holding higher at 92.2 AUc and its highest since April 2022. Against the euro we are still at 59. euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6 and our highest since September.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,554 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday, but down -2.6% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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121 Comments
Aussie property market - Auction clearance rate 67% I wonder if its because their market did not go quite as nuts as ours did in covid. Numbers going to auction down 40 on last year though.
Hard to say, clearance rates are around 60% in Melbourne and Sydney which have had the largest drops, while places like Brissie, Canberra and Gold Coast are below 40%, and their prices haven't had the same sort of falls.
Brisbane and Gold Coast don't have much of an auction culture compared to Sydney or Melbourne. Much lower numbers.
The folk there prefer transacting property in a more civilized manner.
Listing an actual asking price is very common. Unbelievable.
It's where all the civilised people go.
Only 4 months left, you must be fizzing!
Perfectly timed to enjoy the NZ summer and skip the onset of the dreary rain and mold season.
Civilized people are great. Much better than savages.
Far less interesting though.
Looking forward to not living next door to "interesting" savages in West Auckland anymore.
Especially on Friday nights.
Damp. West Auckland.
I can see now why you're so upset with the place.
Run, run fast and far
Brock, I hope you will find an "Interest.com.au" in Ozzie.
Only after 9-12 months of being told on here how amazing things are there first.
What are you talking about Willis ? We have already had 9-12 month of being told how amazing things are there and he has not even left yet.
Imagine getting your big knickers in a twist about facts being mentioned.
Why is that Yves?
So you can comment on the OZ site.
Do you not like my comments here?
Answer your own question: do you think comments like these are very constructive?
by Brock Landers | 21st Nov 22, 2:25pm
Imagine getting your big knickers in a twist about facts being mentioned
I think it was much more constructive than the comments above it. Don't you Yves?
Yes it is amazing, perhaps people are just more relaxed due to the fabulous weather. There is real value in that market, infrastructure to support growth etc.
I know property investors who live in Brisbane. But guess where their IP's are? Not Queensland, but Queenstown! Something about currency value at buy in and transactional costs here; no stamp duty etc.
Just an isolate case perhaps, but if they need liquidity back in Brissy, the property sales will be here.
With the return of tourism many Queenstown properties are BnB again, they can rent to workers but at a lower level so won't, but it is a backstop for them, for now there appears to be less income stress in Queenstown. However there is a lot of construction there, If new build sales stop there will be some forced selling as tradies fall over. I think Queenstown and Auckland are most exposed but Hamilton and Tauranga as well at 2nd tier level.
Yes this is an interesting situation. This happened in 2009, I was asked to look at some incomplete builds, the issue is always the same, the problems that caused the build to stop remained, pricing it down was not the answer.
What are the typical issues that you see in recessions, if you can share?
I think I would be careful to draw to many analogies to the previous recessions due to changing dynamics, the significant supply chain decomposition and the price floor for energy are new and unpredictable variables.
This time will be different, this time I think the amount of credit in the system will make high interest rates impossible, interest rates in 2016 were the same as they are now, and those were the lowest for 20 years. I think we will move back to 4-6 percent range as BAU unless the recession hits harder. If that 4-6% range is accurate the price of housing will be mechanically moved down another 10% or so, which will take it back to 2019 levels.
Mortgagee sales are unfortunately going to be a feature this time as people are unable to service at new levels.
JAO, I agree with our post but I was hoping you would answer ITGuy's question about your previous statement "I was asked to look at some incomplete builds, the issue is always the same, the problems that caused the build to stop remained".
Again, could you please say what these issues were? Thanks
These issues relate to the developers being able to complete the builds. The build financing organised for the development in a market with rising prices falls through as the prices start falling. The banks pull support if they can see the build cannot complete at the original pricing. Developers who have their own financing can complete but those that need bank support cannot. This is more of a risk now than it was in 2008 as the RMA/Council processes are longer and more expensive than ever and therefore the builds take longer making them more exposed to market movements.
Rescue packages cannot get support for the same reasons. Private investors are the last stop on this train and they are the only ones who can take on the risk.
So when I say the issues that caused the build to stop remain, this is what I mean
Thanks for your reply JAO, it's what I though, but I didn't want to presume your own reason
One is that people/businesses stop paying their bills on time or at all
which has a large impact on small operations
Yup. Opportunities in Qt will be at their ripest late next year. Only in my opinion.
It is annoying that all of Orr's "save property prices at all costs" twattery ... like the mortgage holidays and the removal of lvrs and the emergency low rates... benefitted property prices in somewhere like Queenstown and benefitted your Aussie investor mates.
Never has such a high price been paid to prop up such reckless investment decisions of so many unworthies.
Avoiding land tax also.
I pay land taxes by the thousand every year. In NZ we call them rates. On our land, and also on improvements.
I'm talking about actual land tax, which is quite different to just paying for the services supplied by your local council.
It is levied by the various state governments at various rates for holdings over a threshold. For example...
NSW Land Tax Threshold & Calculation
The NSW Land Tax Threshold for 2022 is $822,000. In NSW, land tax is calculated as $100 + 1.6% of the land value over $822,000. For instance, a property with a $1,000,000 land value would be subject to $2,948 in land tax in 2022.
This is why Australian investors may favour interstate or NZ investment.
🐖🐗 Overnight expert. The worst kind of know it all
Thanks TTP. It's much better to have a clue, than not.
The more you improve and increase the worth of your property, in NZ largely, the more rates you will pay accordingly. It’s a quasi wealth tax on which the central government helps themselves to 15% GST. They justify that as being on services etc but the councils’ formulae are calculated primarily on value and not on the services that each household might actually use.
2022 is coming to an end but still lot to flow before 2023.
Even the patriarch off real estate lobbyist are unable to spin on housing market, it reflects the mess that housing market is facing, now and going in future.
Pure Genius....
CoreLogic chief economist Kelvin Davidson: “A lot of would-be investors are currently being put off by the large gap between rental income and mortgage rates.”
Welcome to the world of capital losses...... I would suggest that Mr Orr is glad that they now see reality more clearly., That prices can go up and down.
This gap is only going to get wider as the interest rates go up, council rates increase and interest deductability starts to bite. I know Labour have introduced the interest rate deductability rules, but it will be interesting to see if they dont backtrack on this. They need the middle ground as they will get gutted without it this election. A cynical bribe but one that doesn't really cost them anything, perhaps National would just steal it.... JA is walking a tightrope as she knows NZ will vote for whoever they think will cause them the least financial loss here.
Interest deductibility is on for new builds, and for people renting to social housing. This seems to mimic the direction a lot of professional landlords are taking.
Overall we should expect to see the housing stock of unregulated older homes become increasingly undesirable for investors though, for sure.
Yes, it's not "all about the base", it's "all about the tax avoidance".
The government clearly can't afford to house everyone it thinks it needs to, so they're taking the PPP route via the tax system.
Likewise with healthy homes, all houses needed to be up to standard this year or last year, unless the state owns it, in which case they get a few more years' reprieve.
Investors pay tax or they go to jail. Tax avoidance is illegal. Clearly you do not know what you are talking about. Why you want to broadcast that I am not sure.
No tax evasion is illegal. Tax avoidance is legal. Usually it takes a high court judge to decide which is which though.
Tax avoidance is definitely illegal, tax minimisation is not, that's what accountants are for.
Tax avoidance is not illegal ... accountants & tax planners exist to help investors avoid paying more tax than they have to ... minimization of ones tax bill is a prudent investment strategy ...
... tax evasion is illegal ...
Yes you are all right, apologies Averageman my mistake.
Thanks. Why I used one and not the other. Avoidance of paying on time can be bad though, ask Nikki Connors.
... haven't heard her adverts on the radio recently ... I wonder if the IRD have propellered Nikki into a small cell with a potty & a bowl of porridge ...
Yes that old stock needs to be sitting on a large land parcel or its going to be a FHB reno only.... that limits appeal of investors for sure. Been reading a bit about how the Aussie gouvernment wants to tap the super funds etc to build the million affordable houses needed, but the funds want tax advantages to invest.... thats going to get political.
Has to be done. The way you fix up the result of poor policy is more poor policy.
tax is creating a distortion, many new builds do not tick the all important "location" box
ITGuy, you're not wrong with your post but that's not what KD's quote is about, he talks about the negative cashflow between rental income and interest rates. Your post is about dropping capital values, the form may lead to the latter but it's still a different point.
Indeed. "Mortgaged investors are quiet". Their position of having to increasingly pay tax, while experiencing negative leverage will be a spectacular handbrake.
What will be the trigger point for banks to start shooting their risk proxys (specuvestor)...?
At a corporate lending level ie you have 5+ with the same bank, the conversations started early 2022, to start lightening up the leverage ratios, but the ma and pa dont really have a relationship manager at the bank, so its harder for the bank to have "Conversations" these are more normally the result of missed payments etc.
The banks are certainly much less able to lend, the CCCFA means that only the most determined investor will bother. When you have more than a couple of mortgages with a bank (and this should mean you have 8+ mortgages) then your book should be large enough to warrant some "flexibility" in the banks repayment schedule.
Missed payments on the other hand will bring the banks to the table quickly, mortgagee sales will increase due to this.
Politically a gathering storm. The government will try & tread water up to the holiday break. But when they resume in 2023 a perfect storm will be all upon them, whether they like it or not, accept it or not. The reality is though, that they are proven as ill equipped to do anything meaningful about it, except for mealy mouthed announcements about announcements.
... my prediction for the economic storms of 2023 , anytime the 5 waters are lashing down upon Ardern , she will wheel out her BW ... her giant Bloviating Windbag ... Robbo , to calm & confuse the huddled masses ...
Look for the Labour party outrageous bribes in 2023. Such as promising to cancel all student loans.
Criminal behaviour in my view but these people would willingly screw the nation to get elected.
First year fees-free was already a moronic idea that we are still paying millions for. Most European countries are cutting subsidies to university education and instead putting more policy emphasis on apprenticeship and training.
Besides, having no measurable impact on student enrolments in NZ, this policy encourages more young people into our papermill unis when we already have an "overqualified and underskilled" workforce.
That'd be the same 'overqualified' workforce in a country where there's a long list of professional degree-required roles on the Regional Skilled Shortage List?
Those requirements have been around for ages and only create roadblocks for genuine skills to enter NZ, while cooks, waiters and retail staff find their way into NZ in high proportions of total intake.
"Criminal behaviour" for Labour's part in a story you made up is a bit strong isn't it?
Best stick to things they have actually done IMO. There is plenty to criticize there.
This is gold as well.... the implications are very clear here.
The RBNZ recently indicated that formal caps on high DTI lending won’t be imposed until early 2024 (if required), but last week’s figures showed that attitudes towards this risky type of lending are already changing, with higher mortgages rates themselves also a factor – as they rise, you simply can’t service as much debt for a given income. For investors in particular, the share of lending at a DTI >7 has dropped from almost 40% in late 2021 to only 13% now.
I wonder how the OOs who borrowed at those massive DTIs are going also? They had plenty of equity to start with, but does that matter if they can't service the mortgage?
My guess is there'll be a lot of people looking for 2nd jobs before they downsell - which makes Orr's job that much harder.
And no, I don't wish ill on them - I have cousins in this boat, picking up as much extra work as they can get their hands on to service a mortgage that promises to become a millstone.
It depends on how this is treated. Right now it seems to be written as a control on Investors. That is to say it's introduction would essentially stop property investing as a business, Mum's n Pops only.
However if banks were pressured to recognise say 80% of a properties income (current wild west rule of thumb is on 60%) then that would counter-act this to a small degree.
I think it is interesting that there is a passion for closing down property investment while we have record numbers living a chaotic environment in Motels. No logic whatsoever, people need to think harder about this.
So if I were to go out tomorrow and purchase an old run down investment property using my own home as equity, tick it all up 100% at a higher interest rate and pass the additional cost on to the general population… then that would help someone out of emergency housing? That would provide an additional home for a homeless person?
I think the idea is to encourage investing in new builds and adding to the supply in a way that requires higher equity to begin with. So that the FHB is not competing with someone who is essentially getting a 100% loan for the property based on unrealised gains.
I think people have thought about this and realised it’s extremely damaging to society to have unaffordable poor quality housing supply propped up by forever loans.
So there is a lot in there.
100% mortgages? 60% mortgages are the only ones on offer to Investors.
DTI does not encourage investing in new builds, that is off the table, the DTI is a control for a rising market surely?
If I own my own home entirely and buy a new home of equal value, I have 50% equity. But 100% of that new home is covered by the mortgage. This is what has been happening - has your neighbour the investor been waiting until they own their own home plus 40% cash as down payment for the next one?? No.
DTI does not encourage investing in new builds, you're right - but for those who do so due to other restrictions on investing in property, DTI would require them to do so in a way that requires more equity to begin with - as per the previous comment.
November 18 – MarketWatch (Joseph Adinolfi): “Equity options worth $2.1 trillion in notional value are set to expire on Friday in the latest monthly event where weekly and monthly options tied to single stocks, equity indexes and exchange-traded funds expire… Every month, a team of analysts from Goldman Sachs publishes a breakdown of the options that are expiring. And one of the most notable details from this month’s report is a chart showing how much trading has shifted to options contracts with 24 hours or less left before they expire. Trading in these types of options now represents 44% of all trading in options linked to the S&P 500 index. They now trade an average of $470 billion in notional value per day…”
Checked this headline in stuff
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130513749/borrowers-warned-to-brace-fo…
Why is it always about borrowers when interest rates are rising, why not say Bonanza for saver as OCR set to rise or say Finally RBNZ trying to tackle inflation.
When interest rates were dropped, why did it not say Bonanza for borrowers to speculate.
Mindset ......
I guess the upside in savings rates is significantly dwarfed by rising inflation and borrowing costs?
"Hey, you know how your moneys devaluing at 7-8%? Well good news savers, for you, it's only going to be half that"
Correct but 5% or 6% better than 0.25% Term Deposit rate and also not forcing many who are looking at retirement to opt for higher risky investment as many did in last two years.
The rate ends up only at around 3% after tax. As an investment class TDs are a pretty bad way to prepare for retirement.
If you want the investment to beat inflation, it's going to have to carry more risk.
Agree with inflation as high as today.
0.75% rate hike it seem is expected by most as is all over media and knowing Mr Orr even 0.75% rise is out of his comfort zone and will do as is forced by circumstances.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/11/reserve-bank-tipped-to-hik…
Agree but the Milford and Fisher Agressive all down approx 11% so actually if you moved to cash about Jan you have done better than most. It's the least dirty shirt trade. RBNZ between rock and hard place, building material inflation running hotter then general inflation, another few years and no one will be able to build affordable homes at this rate.....
Well yeah that's the risk part, you won't win every year.
Anyone serious about investing should be thinking in decades.
Anyone shifting money around depending on the market cycle is more of a speculator.
Anyone who has ever invested in a market on Margin knows how painful it can be as the market falls,
Most of the Ma and Pa property investors don't even understand what I just stated. They think they are "Using the equity in their home to buy a great future and easy retirement", The likes of propellor and Staircase have been selling highly leveraged property investment, a massive margin trade, made more attractive by the old negative gearing tax rules.
It was not hard for anyone with a bit of financial knowledge to read that the end of the trend was here, every ad break on Newstalk involved 4 property investment companys ads.
Not seeing the end of a supercycle in any asset class probably makes you a patsy.
every ad break on Newstalk involved 4 property investment companys ads.
Speaks more to their target audience than anything else.
Likewise you should be noticing TV ads targetting more boomers, as young people don't watch much TV anymore.
Not seeing the end of a supercycle in any asset class probably makes you a patsy.
Again, neither of us are Michael Burry.
No but we both like gold here.
I think being active where it makes sense needs to be balanced with a more long term view. There is value in at least understanding the part of the cycle you are in so you can invest new moneys in areas that are growth focused.
There is a lot in what you say.
Put the risk in context. Investing is buying a future income stream. Credit is bringing future consumption forward. With housing you do both. One kills the other, it is ultimately a dead end.
With interest rates having been in a 40 year downward trend, there is information there. Really what we did, the risk, was borrow more from the future to keep obtaining yields and lifestyle for today. Which really means we borrowed farther out. Surely as you do this the risk gets increasingly higher?
One suspects Scarfie that much will be written off, then is it safe to assume that future borrowing will be more expensive as these writedowns sharpen the mind? Seems to me that printing to stop collapse for the GFC has never been withdrawn then more with Covid, now there is just too much printed money out there for it to be repaid.
It also seems that Orr and Robertson are not working together here to solve inflation, too much politics around immigration and election year fiscal irresponsibility.
I hear 3 (now 5) Waters will cost 150bil, and that housing NZ have a 60 bil hole in budget.
" A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money"?
Everyone will be able to afford to buy/build a new home!
CPI will be at 15%; OCR at 8%, and you'll only have to borrow/tie up your household income at a ratio of 20, instead of today's 7. Spread the payment out over 50-75 years instead of 25-30 today, and Voila! Problem solved.
Or is it?
Well the table loan will begin on a 75 year payment schedule, but with wage inflation at 10% p.a. the increase in payments should enable the borrower to pay off the loan in less than 20 years.
Agree, but right now TDs are a pretty good interim option. They certainly aren’t losing you money in nominal terms right? Unlike shares, property etc.
Tricky call as now may be the right time to buy shares
Maybe the Prophets second scroll with reveal all
It's a tough decision. If you can take some risk with your money I would say dividend or new energy focused ETF's would be worth a share of the pool.
Its all relative to the amount you have invested isn't it.
Not true, you were better off with 0.25% Term Deposit rate and 1.5% inflation.
No you are not. You are not interested in the amount you have invested only the weekly return. That's about to go up by 5x what it was only 2 years ago for me and prices and things I need to purchase have not gone up 5x. Forget about what it looks like on paper, its the amount you want to live on each week. Not everyone is in the same position with outgoings and spending habits, older people that are mortgage free and money in the bank can have a totally different outlook. My mindset is different, I forget about that chunk of investment money, except for the likes of a new car and just live on the interest. May sound weird to a few, but I can now buy that new car because the interest received from the remaining investment will now be much higher so the "Car" amount will not be missed.
To maintain the same income long-term, you need to increase the size of the term deposits with inflation, otherwise your income dwindles away over the years. The larger gap between returns and inflation we have now means the dwindling is happening much faster - especially if you are taking this as a windfall rather than re-investing a portion.
Not really I'm not yet even pulling in the $462 a week if I had turned 65 so that on top of the interest would be higher than the average wage in NZ without even working. Mentally you need a shift, you don't live forever so arguably your want to hit that finish line with nothing left anyway so really wouldn't care if it dwindled.
Perhaps because it is not a bonanza for savers? Banks remain particularly stingy on the interest rates they offer to savers. i'd possibly go as far as suggesting that after spending decades lobbying the government to take control of the daily money market (everybody having to have a bank account just to function) they now act as though they don't want to deal with savers. The only people they like are those with debt.
Reminds me a bit of that peer-to-peer Harmony platform.
Initially, good returns and lots of interest.
As soon as they had enough borrowers on the books, no more onesy-twosy retail investors.
Look at the poll, 34% say to raise by less than 0.5 or not at all… have a hmm
I saw that , shows there is pain out there. Mr Orr will be happy he is impacting peoples expectations.
That's true because these are the 1/3 rd with mortgages and 80% of these 1/3rd have been greedy to borrow more and bid more.
These 30% will certainly see the pain now but the rest 70% are asking for the big push in OCR to manage inflation and bring prices down to sensible levels.
I really have zero pity for these 30% who got led by FOMO and borrowed large for their own greed.
Ah yes, it's 'greedy' to borrow more to secure a home in a rising market.
Hopefully if there is some pain to come it takes out a few people who can't get their head around the fact that securing secure accommodation in a warm dry house for your family isn't 'greed'.
But of course, those who are pushing for ordinary home owners to take more pain so they can secure a cheaper home aren't being greedy at all, right?
Is there a record of council rates arrears anywhere?
Suspect these would be worth watching
Hearing a few rumours that there may be some bigger then normal Friday sales and online specials this year as retails want to lighten the stock levels a bit. Could be some stunning boxing day sales.
This is exactly what has happened to one of my clients - they were going gangbusters earlier in the year so kept buying more and more stock (warehouses full of stuff to the point of splitting at the seams).
All of a sudden the music has stopped ... or at least the tempo has slowed ... and now they're carrying huge stock into a declining market.
This is a specialist product (not really a mass market category) so won't be one for a 'Black Friday Special' but an anecdotal example.
In terms of consumer level specials, I'm seeing it with computer equipment. There are some decent deals coming through, which is a reversal of the earlier WFH craze where you couldn't buy anything.
I see that COP’27 seems to have ended with another unfortunately predictable outcome. No pledges to reduce emissions to line up with 1.5 degrees from the current projected 2.7 degrees based on current policies. 18 of 200 countries have signed their commitments into law. Including the EU and of course the Russian Federation. The rest of the big emitters have a policy document or a pledge.
Invest in air conditioning?
Very sad. All the political capital has been squandered on woke reparations.
We need to double down on climate friendly tech and infrastructure deployment.
China, US, India, EU are the ones that really matter.
Everyone else is just a fart in the wind.
Maybe when their citizens start dying in sufficient numbers from the effects of pollution, they will do something. A bit like Britain started to clean up after the "Alice" incident.
"SS Princess Alice sank on 3 September 1878 after a collision on the River Thames. Between 600 and 700 people died the greatest loss of life of any British inland waterway shipping accident. The point of the collision was the area of the Thames where 75 million imperial gallons (340,000 m3) of London's raw sewage had just been released, and her passengers drowned in the heavily polluted waters. About 130 people were rescued from the collision, but died later from ingesting the water."
Drowning in sh*t isn't that dissimilar from modern day existence :p
I cannot see China, US , India moving much at all, it's a talk fest guys.
Sad for the planet, the next couple of billion people are going to be a disaster.
I do not understand how the planet can increase population by 20% without a massive increase in emmisions.
Yep China needs to lead on this for it to be meaningful in any way.
"China emissions exceed all developed nations combined" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57018837 )
Research by Rhodium Group (western research group) says China emitted 27% of the world's greenhouse gases in 2019. The US was the second-largest emitter at 11% while India was third with 6.6% of emissions, the think tank said. Scientists warn that without an agreement between the US and China it will be hard to avert dangerous climate change.
The US is getting better - (https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-gre… ) - but it is likely the are exporting their manufacturing emissions to China so don't get a free pass from me.
"In 2020, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions totaled 5,981 million metric tons (13.2 trillion pounds) of carbon dioxide equivalents. This total represents a 7 percent decrease since 1990 and a 20 percent decrease since 2005"
India will be on the same track as China probably.
I guess in theory the areas where populations are still projected to increase are lower emitters typically, and those with declining populations are significantly higher emitters.
The more you emit, the wealthier you become, a better lifestyle and a cleaner environment. Fossil fuels are the future.
Sadly there will not be any real commitment to reductions in those areas until the local climate has a materially detrimental effect on the lives of enough people in those large emitter countries to force reductions. The old adage of someone not making a change until the cost of not changing behaviour outweighs the benefits of continuing that behaviour. We are still a long way away from reaching that point. Unless you happen to live beside a river in Pakistan or Eastern Australia of course.
Sorry WM but if you believe reducing carbon emissions is the answer then it is no longer possible to hit 1.5 degrees - to do so would require the removal of carbon using technology we dont have
Yes of course you are right. Sadly we do not possess the technology or resources let alone the will to do so. The sooner we face up to this the better then we can plan as a country to minimise the consequences on our local population and not waste any more precious time chasing rainbows. Starting with maintaining our export income from agriculture and mitigating where we can. Waiting for the biggest global emitting countries to voluntarily commit economic suicide in order to reduce emissions is a false hope.
Not one climate model prediction from the 'experts' has been accurate. COP'27 is that where 400 private jets full of unelected elitists (as they like to call themselves) flew to Egypt, in true climate hypocrisy, spewing CO2 emissions along the way to promote their new agenda. Which is what? Global control through global digital ID and thus control of carbon emissions, all in the disguise of 'saving the planet'. The big emitters will continue to emit until all fossil fuels are used up, if that is even remotely possible given the massive reserves we continue to discover.
The Supreme Court has ruled that 16 & 17 year olds should have the right to vote ... its deemed to be age discrimination to deny them a vote ...
... I wonder what the nation's 14 & 15 year olds make of this ...
My nine-month old has some choice words on this matter too ... throws his food on the floor in disgust at the trampling on his rights. He can just about press the buttons on his talking book, so why shouldn't he get the vote?
In all seriousness though, the "Make It 16" argument really comes down to whether you're a lefty or a righty. It also seems somewhat pointless, as AFAIK you'd need a 75% majority in parliament and National/ACT wouldn't stand it (I also can't see it winning a referendum either).
At a deeper level, it is an interesting debate as I know some teenagers who are very switched-on in terms of their political knowledge, and some adults (many in fact) who just vote in terms of whoever is the cool choice at the time.
I was deeply interested in politics - both locally and internationally - from a fairly young age, but at the same time I never thought to whinge about not having the vote until I turned 18. In the fullness of time, I've also come to appreciate just how naive I was at that age, and how ignorant I was to the realities of the world (how many 16 year olds do you meet who don't believe in magical money trees?)
Also after some of the goings-on of the past couple of years, why are we suddenly pretending that the BoRA is worth more than the paper it's written on?
... according to a Labour government minister " if you can have sex at 16 , you should be able to vote at 16 " ...
The 2023 general election polling booths will be rocking with 16 year olds bonking their way through the voting form ...
It goes without saying which of these two activities I was more interested in at 16.
It also goes without saying which of the two I would have been better at.
If you believe some Kiwi women, most Kiwi men have never really mastered either box, ticking required or otherwise.
My wife voted with her feet
AFAIK you'd need a 75% majority in parliament
I hope that is true! IMO, based on the stupid decisions I made even in my 20's, the age should be raised!
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