Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news we are ending the year with some very mixed signals, and it isn't clear one way or the other whether the widely-expected recession will actually eventuate in 2023. Markets are no longer in 'fear' mode.
However, in China the pressure on property developers is never-ending. Now, to bail them out, Beijing has ordered its top four state-owned banks to issue offshore loans to help developers repay overseas debt. And to encourage buyers to return, mortgage interest rates for first home loans have been dropped by over one percentage point since the start of 2022. As of the end of November, the average first home loan rate in China stood at 4.17%.
In Japan, births among Japanese nationals totaled 798,500, according to official data for 2022, and down from +811,000 in the prior year. This is the first time the 12-month figure has dipped below 800,000 births. That is far below replacement levels and the Japanese population is shrinking fast now. Earlier, the Japanese population was forecast to shrink to less than 100 million people in 2053, but now there is a strong likelihood the milestone will be reached much sooner. Of course, this isn't just a Japanese 'problem'. It is equally true for South Korea, Italy and China
In Europe, producer prices are now falling, and quite quickly after a heady, uncontrolled run-up induced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They fell -2.5% in October from September (or falling at an annualised -30% rate), but they are still +31 higher than year-ago levels.
In the US, their labour market has again outperformed analysts expectations with a headline seasonally adjusted rise of +262,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November when a +200,000 was expected. The labour market expansion hasn't stalled yet. But as regular readers know, we also look at the raw, unadjusted data, and that shows payrolls actually rose +574,000 to 155 mln* and a new record high. That is +4.8 mln more employed than a year ago, and almost +2 mln more employed than the peak pre-pandemic. That is a lot of extra payroll cascading through the giant American economy. It is no wonder that some analysts think a softer landing is possible.
The same data shows that US hourly earnings rose +5.8% in the year to November, and weekly earnings were up +4.9%. Hourly earnings are rising at a faster annualised pace in November from October, up at the rate of +8.1% pa. Workers seem to be keeping up, and that demand-induced gain is consistent with a tight labour market.
Wall Street seemed under pressure after this data was released, now unsure whether the US Fed will ease back in the way that was signaled earlier in the week. Clearly wage-push inflation is a policy 'thing', and the much larger expansion of the overall workforce is providing the currency to sustain higher prices for longer.
That's not to say it's all roses. It isn't. The Fed's Beige Book surveys show that businesses expressed greater uncertainty and increased pessimism for the American economy as prices and interest rates continue to rise.
Canada's labour market also turned in a better-than-expected result in November too. Total employment was little changed in November (+10,000), but that follows a big increase of +108,000 in October and the November data shows the prior month's result was not an outlier.
In Australia, it is becoming clearer that sharply higher prices for coal and natural gas (thanks to Russia's Ukraine invasion fallout), and continuing good iron ore prices, are delivering a substantial windfall tax-take for Australian states and their Federal government. They have a direct financial interest in raising carbon-emitting outputs. These increases, along with the ending of some substantial tax deductions available to miners, are enough to push their budget balances into surplus. That is a huge turn-around from what just last year seemed like persistent long-term deficits.
Meanwhile, global food prices eased slightly in November, continuing a downward trend since the peak in March. Prices for both meat and dairy contributed to the easing. Overall prices are -15% below their March peak, and now back to year-ago levels. But they remain +40% higher than their pre-pandemic levels, so the core pressure is still there.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.49% and down -4 bps from where we left it Saturday. A week ago it was at 3.69% so a -20 bps drop since. The UST 2-10 rate curve is slightly more inverted at -79 bps. And their 1-5 curve is more inverted too at -103 bps, while their 30 day-10yr curve is little-changed at -32 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -4 bps at 3.34%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.92%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today unchanged at 4.03%.
The price of gold will open today up at US$1797/oz. A week ago it was US$1753/oz, so a +US$44 gain since then, mostly exchange-rate induced.
And oil prices start today down -US$1 from this time Saturday at just over US$80/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down to just over US$86/bbl. These are about +US$4 higher for the week as the US dollar sank.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 64.1 USc, and up to it highest since August. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 94.4 AUc and an eleven month high. Against the euro we are firm at 60.9 euro cents and a two month high. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.4 and a three month high.
The bitcoin price is now at US$17,013 and down -0.3% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$16,496. Volatility over the past 24 hours has low again at just +/- 0.7%.
* = or to 158 mln if you use the other LNU02000000 data series. It is usual to use the lesser CES0000000001 data series, which forms the basis of most reporting, including ours. There is minor controversy over these different series because they are diverging, but the upstart promoters forget their preferred set delivers a larger employed workforce even it the changes are smaller.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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86 Comments
No country is willing to tame inflation. It is inflate or bust and it seems governments and central bankers want inflation. Savers and wage earners are screwed.
No country, outside of maybe the United States, is capable of taming inflation.
Wage earners are less screwed than those not earning.
Until the USA loses its reserve currency status and that is happening (BRICS).
And the US has to keep creating inflation to avoid defaulting on its debt obligations that are spiraling out of control
New Zealand, with Roger Douglas at the helm, literally tamed inflation in the 1980s. the current bunch would hardly know how to spell "whakarata utunga o te utu", let alone do anything about it.
Well debt, at home and abroad, private and public, has compounded to a level unimaginable at let’s say the turn of the century. So what’s good for debt goes good with inflation? Great to start the morning. with a strong dash of the cynic in your coffee.
Politicians and Governments love inflation. It helps them collect more tax and show that their books are in good shape.
Politicians do not care about the poor or their misery, they care about their donations from the rich and powerful. By having more money in the bank accounts of their political parties, they can buy the advertising in Media companies and manipulate the narrative.
We are all hooked to social and media drug and independent thinking is all but lost.
"Politicians do not care about the poor or their misery, they care about their donations from the rich and powerful"
Would you like a violin with your pre-conceived, "poor" poor people - "nasty" rich people, politician bashing statement?
When did i say poor are miserable ( misery is very different from being miserable) and rich are nasty?
Who's pre-conceived please? Is it me?
Thanks for your reply though. Have a good day, it's Monday.
Oh, so you think that hiding behind sarcasm means others can't tell the true meaning of your post...
You should ban him oh mighty Yvil?
It's rare that I agree with you Yvil but today I do. Well said.
Who cares if your books are in good shape if the infrastructure and public service is run into the ground and getting worse by the day?
Yes people these days appear to miss how society is interdependent. They believe that if I 'just get ahead' then everything will be fine. No it won't be if you've destroyed another part of society in the process of 'getting ahead'.
That part of society will:
1. either want revenge and destroy the quality of society/community (i.e lawlessness and instability, lack of public safety etc)
2. become a burden to you by needing to be supported by the government (i.e. from your taxes! you will need to pay more taxes to pay for their lack of income that they need to survive)
Its best to try and lift as many people collectively - as opposed to trying to make the already rich, even richer (which is the current modus operandi)
Good comment IO. The current government has allowed vested interests get further ahead by destroying the financial wellbeing of low-income households. There is no end in sight to this state-supported gravy train as migration floodgates are fully reopened and the government keeps cranking up welfare payments to make up for its failures on socioeconomic reforms.
We should also be wary the victim-bashing solutions floated by opposition parties as "reforms". Harsher welfare sanctions, boot camps and electronic monitoring for youth offenders, more wage competition through high migration, etc.
Savers are savers because they don't spend so they are not screwed. Will be pretty happy when my TD rolls over in Feb to something close to 6%. I'm only getting screwed for the next 2 months on the old rate.
It will take efforts and time to tame the over inflated economy, which has been fuelled by cheap and easy money pumped by RBNZ like never before.
When has RBNZ ever been correct in first stage, it is only by trial and error they reach equilibrium.
The regulators have given the banks 'window guidance', or verbal orders that leave no paper trail, setting a date of Dec. 10 by which to make loans secured against domestic assets, said two of the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity.
China has stepped up support in recent weeks to undo a liquidity squeeze that has stifled the sector, which makes up a quarter of the world's second-largest economy and has been a key driver of growth.
What could possibly go wrong?
At least its just this tiny sector of their economy thats spluttering and the rest is all good, Right?
Tiny haha. Just like in NZ.
Perhaps the OCR rises are just starting to make inroads on the employment market.
Real Estate Agents exit industry as Bay of Plenty sales volumes plummet (Herald, today)
Interesting to read this in MSM, must be triggering for some. The collective view of most of the owners, is that the market will continue to fall into late 2023. one even mentioned there may be opportunities for discounts from stretched investors. Maybe we are about to see some Pent Up Supply.
Out of the mouths of Babes.
Well, there are plenty of openings for these 'highly trained professionals' in the hospo industry I believe.
No deductible liquid lunches with 'clients' though.
If things get really desperate they might have to swap the Panamera for a *ugh* Cayman.
I find the grouping of people by their profession, sex, age, skin colour, sexual preference and then bashing of said group, despicable. Yet it is so often done on this site, such as RE agents, economists, Boomers etc...
Are the authors of such accusations certain that their own profession, age group, skin colour etc.. is perfect and blemish free?
I don't think happy, open minded people would engage in such narrow-minded, often sarcastic and cynical activity.
Accountability often looks like bullying if you aren't used to it.
That's a very good snazzy reply GV.
Could you please explain how all Boomers should be accountable for when they were born? All people of colour accountable for their skin? Or any professional accountable for his/her entire industry?
Don't worry Yvil - it's conspiracy theorists at their best. GV buys into a new type of bible called the 4th Turning that blames it all on the Boomers. BS really. It's just people being people and politicians being politicians. The challenge is how do we as voters change it in a democracy?
I buy into this wild idea that people should probably have some self-awareness and be prepared to consider the objective stats that show that even if you had it hard, younger people have it harder. This seems be quite a triggering idea for some of our elder Kiwis, I had no idea they were such snowflakes.
Meanwhile, millennials just get on with it, raise families, pay mega-mortgages while the Gen Xers and Boomers out there sook about how they're getting called names by young people who aren't super grateful for the hospital pass they've been given.
And if you think millennial scorn is bad, wait until you see the Gen Z kids. They hate everyone.
Every generation has it hard, relevant to the times they live in GV. The boomer generation didn't have many of the assets that are available to post boomer generations, plus we had the memory of recent wars. I don't think we believed we had it harder than the generation before us though because they lived through the post war depression. But yes just as you attribute to millennials, the boomers just got on with it in the world they lived in, and yes we coped with mortgage interest rates of up to 23%, even though house prices were only two to three times the median annual wage.
The problems the current generations face today are due to the politicians and big money, not any particular generation, but then information is more readily available today than when I was growing up, so I'd suggest there is less excuse for people making poor choices today. (I must admit I occasionally wonder how we got by just relying on local rags and the radio for our information) I'd like to say there is hope for future generations, but when I look at the current crop of pollies, even Chloe Swarbrick, frankly I despair.
There may be less excuses for poor decisions made today, but the consequences of the poor ones people made a while ago are lingering on, and at great expense to us today. Again, I can measure those by the number of zeroes on my mortgage statement, which would have covered the cost of my house in its entirety and then some. And I feel we got here because people were prepared to try and normalise extremely difficult as the normal because it was difficult for them - despite objective reality as measured in stats like housing affordability, ownership rates and population pressure. If you can dismiss those, and aren't personally effected by them, then... well you can basically do anything you want at that point.
Frankly, I do not know what the answer is. I feel we are heading for a reckoning where we will have to reconcile Kiwi ideas around fairness and exceptionalism with the stark and frankly miserable existence we have cultivated for younger Kiwis and their families in the present age. Hopefully in short order, so we can spend less time dithering in the here and now as things get worse, and actually chart a roadmap out of this bind.
I do not for one minute dismiss the difficulty faced by younger generations today GV. I'm as frustrated as you. The difference is I put responsibility on the politicians who have enacted legislation and shaped the country into what it has become. Yes some of that legislation was part of election platforms, but the ability to understand what it meant was significantly less than today with the internet. And people today still just accept what the pollies tell them without question!??
What is required; I'd suggest it is more mavericks in Government. More people like Winston Peters to call out the Government when it is need. Voting along party line will just get more sycophants and yes 'men'. We need to challenge our pollies more, do not accept being 'flannelled' or fobbed off, and don't take NO for an answer, but most of all get out and vote!
Fundamentally though we're dealing with very different institutions. We've elected red and blue governments to intervene in housing and gone backwards to show for it. There isn't really much of the old social contract left, just the expectation that we can make the basics cost more and more and people will have to go further and further in debt to live a life with less and less security.
There isn't much more people can generally do, in a representative democracy, other than change the representatives. Well, we tried that. What now?
I feel like if you pitch your tent by trying to improve the lives of people who are living and doing their best to work and support families, you'll make outcomes better for a whole lot of people, including those who don't work and those who follow in our footsteps. Cheaper housing, greater opportunities for investment in business and trade and admitting things like student debt and so on were a mistake really are just first steps, but we get bogged down in imported culture wars that 90% of people won't care about if they weren't being spoonfed them in the absence of meaningful debate.
Yea it does sound bloody good, to be fair. It's also largely true. People generally want to opt-out of the solutions to issues that have transpired under their tenure under the provision that they didn't directly cause it. The problem is that they're generally not the ones living with the consequences either.
The key to all of these things, however, is the ability to empathise with the people who are living with the fall-out. You'll find most people who have no issue with older New Zealanders who can appreciate the difficulty of raising a young family in today's economic environment where the basics of housing are hugely unaffordable, and that scorn is generally reserved for people who can't appreciate that paying 20% for a tiny fraction of their loans on a tiny loan balance at a time of huge wage inflation (even compared to now) is actually less of a burden than what many young Kiwis face today, with rising interest costs on massive mortgages, and who can't accept that doesn't give them perpetual victim status.
In that sense, their 'crime' isn't being 'boomers', it's being idiots. Perhaps you are right, and maybe we just need to take some of the demographic profiling out of it and get straight to the point of calling people jerks if they act like it. After all, who has the time?
Well I would certainly agree on calling people out for acting like jerks, rather than grouping people together based on their age, profession or any other criteria, and calling the whole lot "jerks"
You're being too generous Yvil. GV is still labelling entire swaths of the population as "jerks" rather than looking at the politicians of the times. He might even be surprised that that there are a lot of boomers living in rentals today, going into retirement with little to no hope of being able to survive on the meagre handouts politicians deign to provide, even when they have the responsibility to ensure they're (the soon to retire, and retired boomers) cared for after the GSF was dumped into the consolidated fund.
No, It's just bullying and dehumanizing.
Try working in Banking...... may have to get a job in Corrections.
I am an old white heterosexual guy, so never have aspersions cast on my group. Bit lucky really.
Less fear, more clarity. Perhaps it is time to stop scaring the children. Maybe Interest.co.nz can have more articles on 5 x H20 and less on CH4 and CO2.
"...Our observational analyses render models with large positive feedbacks implausible and both support and explain at the process scale a weak trade cumulus feedback. Our findings thus refute an important line of evidence for a high climate sensitivity."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05364-y
R Graphics Output (wordpress.com) Published Measurements of Climate Sensitivity to CO2 Doubling
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x
Why do you keep posting stuff you don't understand and know that most on here will not understand either. Is it because you're paid to do so by the fossil industry?
This won't be just a UK problem.
Military ON STAND-BY as ministers prepare for wave of strikes....There is expected to be widespread disruption to transport in the run up to Christmas with further rails strikes, walk-outs by baggage handlers at Heathrow and possible action by Border Force staff. The Fire Brigades Union meanwhile is balloting its members, while industrial action is continuing at the Royal Mail.
Has the UK turned into France at some point, and I missed it?
France has half the inflation of the UK.
Fortunately for the French the Tories have not been in power there for the last decade f***ing things up royally.
This afternoon I met police chiefs to make it clear that they have my full support in acting decisively to clamp down on illegal protests. The public have had enough of this disruption and those breaking the law should expect to feel the full force of it. #PublicOrderBill
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-05/global-economy-interest-rate-pai…
A reasonable summary of key themes for 2023.
"Only New Zealand seems to be hell bent on deliberately driving its economy into recession at breakneck speed. Everyone else suddenly seems to be easing back on the brakes."
And no reversal allowed during their 3 month holiday. What a rort.
I have always said: cut too far, took too long to raise, and have ultimately raised too far and too fast, and will start cutting again earlier than almost everyone thinks.
Thanks for the great link Kiwikidsnz
Falling birth rates in an already overpopulated world is NOT a problem, it is the bloody SOLUTION!
When does this damned more, more, more narrative change?????
The current economic system we have adopted doesn't work with a falling population.
Nor can you maintain the infrastructure to support a big population without new ones coming through. The Japanese were suckers though, they actually built stuff.
Here we used infrastructure as a job scheme for wayward paper shufflers and never actually incur the capital cost of building anything.
4D chess by what appeared to ineffective governments unlocking longer term gains for us all. Thank you Eternal PM John Keys.
Not with the current growth mindset it doesn't.
Be handy if government was to do some planning on where to retrench with falling population. But they were caught well short when a pandemic (not unprecedented) popped up, so I'm not holding out any hope.
Planning? There's a plan. Just import more people. We could take the hard route and make it easier for the people here to afford to have more children, but that's way harder than just importing more. Plus why break the habit of a lifetime.
The government, opposition and business lobbies in NZ have no intention to let our population decline. Also, the talk of NZ participating in a global race for talent is a sham.
We are only interested in importing consumers and labour feedstock for low-wage businesses. Economic refugees willing to pay high taxes and exorbitant living costs out of their meagre wages are welcome here - the more, the merrier.
Case in point, the occupations receiving the most work visa approvals since July 2022 are cooks, waiters and retail workers. More visas have been issued in the last 5 months to cleaners than to software developers or mechanical engineers.
Exactly. Hence successive governments keep up the same old tricks of pumping population growth and housing.
But now this trick has run out of puff.
so the massive question now is - what’s the new way of creating growth and prosperity?
Productivity, which NZ has missed. Produce something, not government jobs like health and safety and their new traffic control business.
Correct
The NZD is gaining very rapidly and it certainly looks like I was wrong selling the NZD at 0.62 10 days ago, the NZD is getting close to pushing through its long term downtrend, the next few weeks should be telling...
If global equities really are in a bear market, we will see a reversal from this bear market rally soon (next few weeks) and investors wanting to reduce risk (selling currencies like the NZD and buying USD).
But without a crystal ball...who knows. Technical analysis would argue that we're at a cross roads now and the trend is for global equities to fall further.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjFIGt9WQAQIk6o?format=png&name=large
Did you know that early December 2000 the 10yr-3m yield curve was -83bps and the $SPX was -14% YTD from its peak. Did you know that it is early December now and the 10yr-3m yield curve is -83bps and the $SPX is down -14% from its peak.
https://twitter.com/mikepsilva/status/1599214295984017410?s=20&t=-WoETT…
We agree, lol!
Yea I'm genuinely shocked by the dollar. I really thought we'd be pushing downwards on 0.52 by the end of the year, if not sooner.
The RBNZ must be considered more hawkish than the FED over the last few weeks. Orr has surprised the market with a possible higher terminal OCR, and stated it is likely to stay there longer than expected.
At the same time the FED has perhaps become a little more dovish, even though more rate hikes are priced in, maybe the terminal rate is no longer expected to be as high or held as long.
As a result everything has squeezed higher. A Ukrainian ceasefire would massively test the upside here. There is considerable event risk either way as there is not a massive amount of data out next month. We probably grind higher in the low liquidity new years period. I expect a retest of lows next year on bad US and NZ economic news, meanwhile take advantage and do a bit of importing.
Interestingly the NZD has pretty much flatlined against the JPY over the past couple of weeks, oscillating between 85-87.
Great time to import a second hand Nissan Leaf.
Waiting for a brand new Hyundai to arrive here, you certainly do not want to be in a hurry for a new car if its not already in the country, expect a 6 to 9 month wait at least.
Been there, done that.
Good time to bring something a bit spicier than that in.
I expect a lot of lease returns of Audi Q7's and those little white Range Rover Sports from people leaving the business.
They will no doubt turn up , one of the major lease companies has a website for this stuff I dig it out.
And like that the whole thread was gone.
You know a property market is in trouble when you are discussing actual sale prices relative to cv, publicly available data, from 48hrs ago, and the thread gets deleted.
MSM and 2nd stream sites such as this still receiving to much $$$$ from the real estate industry..
What? Did I just miss something? Wasn't paying attention. Has interest.co sold itself to the devil too? I bloody hope not.
You need to checkout the range, some spicey stuff in there and cars that are still available in a 6 speed manual.
In the US, their labour market has again outperformed analysts expectations with a headline seasonally adjusted rise of +262,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November when a +200,000 was expected.
The only reason the unemployment rate hasn't gone up since March is, again, the participation problem. HH Survey shows no new jobs, and no one entered the LF despite 1.3mm increase in population. BLS just shrugs and says none of the 1.3mm want work. No way. Link
Interesting how unemployment tracking beyond sustainable levels in the US is not producing pay increases even close to the CPI level.
From March 2021 to August 2022, inflation in the US has risen 11.81% but average hourly wage has only gone up ~7.5% without an increase in number of hours worked either to compensate slower wage growth.
Considering these stats are reported as averages not median, also adds a layer of distortion on the harsh economic reality for those on the lower end of the pay scale.
In the same period, people with meaningful discretionary income have actually seen pay raises that outpace inflation. CEOs received pay increases of 18.2% from 2020 to 2021 – leagues ahead of inflation. Link
Our balance of trade for the September quarter just came in at $7,505 million. This means in all probably our current account will hit 10 billion in the September quarter. On a non seasonally adjusted basis our current account will probably hit 10% of GDP.
This is not good for our economy. We are living well beyond our means. It is unsustainable. We need to make structural adjustments to our economic model.
Blame Putin.
Education and tourism brought in a-fourth of our export earning in 2019 and this tells the story of massive trade deficits we're incurring.
Interestingly, of the $5.1 billion from education export, only $0.3b came in tuition fees (of which education agents overseas usually take a decent chunk out as commission) and the remaining $4.8b or 94% of the export dollars came from international students spending money across the economy, consuming goods and services.
This is the reality of this highly-coveted export industry - a more accurate name for which should be consumer import or perhaps rental export.
I would like to know how much of that $4.8b was actually accumulated offshore and spent here, vs recirculating the cash they earned here.
I would like to know that to. I generally don't look too much into details due to this problem and try to stay big picture when looking at balance of trade, current account and NIIP.
Agreed. I also look at current developments that are likely to improve or worsen these balances. More workers coming to NZ to participate in our import-dependent domestic economy rather than contributing to high-value exports raises a massive red flag for me. That comes on top of decades of more people joining the domestic economy than the export side.
Then we have enterprises moving productive operations overseas or entirely relocating elsewhere at the stage of commercialisation or scaling up.
I would also argue our issues with shallow capital markets oriented towards housing assets, chronic investment shortfall in modern infrastructure and skills, etc. have worsened in the past few years.
I wouldn't be surprised if the agencies involved (TEC, MoH, et. al) are overstating the export earnings by including the locally earned dollars in this $4.8b. For one, any estimate of what students earn here will be understated since many students are engaged in cash jobs.
Back in my uni days most of my co-workers at parttime gigs were students from Asia who accepted wages in cash, at least in part, as a way to work around their 20-hour weekly limit set by INZ.
Financial sector shaken after Blackstone limited withdrawals in one of its largest private real estate funds. Investors concerned about real estate values as econ data shows US housing mkt conditions continue to soften. FT article puts thing in perspective https://ft.com/content/23a22e
And oil prices start today down -US$1 from this time Saturday at just over US$80/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down to just over US$86/bbl. These are about +US$4 higher for the week as the US dollar sank.
They Begin To Suspect Something...
You know The Hill, this collection of "experts" from D.C. is grinding its teeth.
The looming Russian oil price “cap” has all the hallmarks of a historic debacle in the making. For months, the United States and the G-7 have haggled over a complex plan to constrain the money that the Kremlin makes from some of its oil exports. With a looming deadline to loosen oil sanctions just days away, policymakers should dump the plan — as it will do little to hasten an end to the war in Ukraine. The problem is money. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on his regime, Russia is swimming in petrol dollars. By the end of the year, the Russian Economy Ministry estimates that the country will have made a record $338 billion from its energy exports. This money supports the Russian economy, buoys its current account, and – less directly – helps to finance Putin’s war against Ukraine.
And just as I predicted when it looked like Trump would run again, he is talking about suspending parts of the US Constitution. This is classic softening up of the population tactic, first make a slight suggestion that a core principle should change. Get people talking about it, then ramp it up if he gets back in. He is outlining the path to dictatorship by suggesting the constitution laws should be overturned when he doesn't get his way.
Its one of those make or break moments for the US in the next presidential election. He has shows what he will do now, will constituents be OK with it and elect him anyway?
In Japan, births among Japanese nationals totaled 798,500, according to official data for 2022, and down from +811,000 in the prior year. This is the first time the 12-month figure has dipped below 800,000 births. That is far below replacement levels and the Japanese population is shrinking fast now. Earlier, the Japanese population was forecast to shrink to less than 100 million people in 2053, but now there is a strong likelihood the milestone will be reached much sooner. Of course, this isn't just a Japanese 'problem'. It is equally true for South Korea, Italy and China.
Birth rates are dropping rapidly across tge world. UN estimates seem to now be badly lagging the situation on the ground in many countries.
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