Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we have a big sell-off underway, induced by markets fearful of a united central bank resolve, who all remain focused on tackling inflation, and a growing understanding that this may require an economic recession to achieve that outcome.
The trigger from both the US and EU is that policy makers have indicated interest rates may have to go much higher before the inflation battle is won.
In the US, their data releases aren't helping the investor mood either. American retail sales fell in November from October and by much more than expected. Car sales were the big problem here. The year-on-year rise is down to +6.5%.
American industrial production came in lower than expected in November too, falling from October when a rise was expected. The year-on-year gain is down to +2.5%.
Inventories however didn't surprise with a small rise in wholesale stocks as expected and a small fall in retail stocks, also as expected. But wholesale inventories are +14% above year-ago levels, and retail inventories are a massive +20% above on the same basis. This is very much more than can be accounted for by inflation.
In the regions, the Philly Fed factory survey stayed quite negative, while the NY Fed's similar survey turned equally negative. Firms in the New York region expect little improvement, but in the Philly Fed region future indicators turned positive.
Despite all this growing negativity, the American labour market rolls on in a positive vein. There were 249,000 new jobless claims last week, a decrease from the prior week, taking the number on these benefits to 1.5 mln, also a fall, and more than -230,000 less than year-ago levels. The insured unemployment rate has stayed at a very low 1.0%.
In Canada, housing starts stayed high in November, bringing no surprises. They have generally been elevated since mid 2020, so perhaps this is the new normal for them.
There was a set of official data released in China yesterday, much of it weak. Retail sales fell and by much more than anticipated, to be a massive -5.9% below year-ago levels in October. Given their pervasive lockdowns, analysts had though a massive -3.7% fall was coming. In fact it was almost twice that. Electricity production was unchanged in November from a year ago. But they claimed industrial production rose +2.2% on the same basis even though that was half the claimed October rise. It hardly makes sense when electricity use is unchanged. They also said house prices fell -1.6% in November from a year ago, a brave estimate when these markets are largely a shadow of themselves.
And we should note that the official Chinese unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in November from 5.5% in October, which for a labour market of 792 mln, that is a huge extra number now jobless, 1.14 million. Given most Western countries have jobless rates in the 3-4% range now (Europe excepted), China's labour market is an outlier.
Meanwhile, China's Covid response is careening off the rails. A sudden surge in Covid infections has stoked public anxiety and created huge demand for medical supplies, and even food delivery in Beijing. But pharmacies are running short on medicines and delivery drivers are falling sick, meaning many are now struggling to purchase daily necessities. Now estimates are that more than 1 mln people will die nationwide in this new situation. Their inability to vaccinate enough people with proper vaccines has left them horribly exposed. Even their online delivery systems are wavering.
In Taiwan, their central bank raised its policy rate by a small +12 bps to 1.75%. Hong Kong mirrored the US Fed, as they always to, with a +50 bps rise to 4.75%.
In Europe, there were a string of central bank rate rises. The ECB raised their policy rate by +50 bps to 2.5%. Norway raised their rate to 2.75% with a +25 bps change, as expected. England raised theirs by +50 bps to 3.50% also as expected and mirroring both the US Fed and the ECB. And Switzerland made the same +50 bps change, taking theirs to 1.0%. All suggested more hikes were on their way in 2023.
In Australia, a higher participation rate is powering their labour market, whose jobless rate stayed at 3.4% in November. Their jobless fell by -7,400 to 491,700. Total employment increased by +64,000 to a fresh record peak of 13.8 mln, beating market forecasts of a rise of +19,000, as full-time employment rose +34,200 to 9.6 mln while part-time employment gained +29,800 to 4.2 mln. Yes, 30% of jobs there are part-time roles there. Surging inward migration is boosting this labour market. Willing workers are finding willing employers. Their participation rate edged up to 66.8%, returning to the record high hit in June.
Global containerised shipping freight rates didn't fall mast week, and unusual situation, indicating the 40 week run of decreases may be over and we are reaching the bottom. Bulk cargo rates inched up, but to their highest in six week.
The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.43%, and down -7 bps from this time yesterday and building on the recent big drop. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more inverted at -79 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also more inverted at -103 bps, while their 30 day-10yr curve is little-changed at -30 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +6 bps at 3.48%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +1 bp at 2.92%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up a very sharp +16 bps at 4.34%.
As we noted earlier, Wall Street's Thursday session is very negative with the S&P500 down -2.9%. Overnight, European markets set the tone by coming in more than -3% lower - except London which was down a bit less than -1%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down -0.4%. Hong Kong fell -1.6%. And Shanghai ended down -0.3 in its Thursday session. The ASX200 closed down -0.6% while the NZX50 ended its session up +0.2% to distinguish itself.
The price of gold will open today at US$1778 and down -US$33 from yesterday.
And oil prices start today down -US$1 from this time yesterday at just under US$76/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$81/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opened today at 63.5 USc and down more than -1c overnight. Against the Australian dollar we are up more than +½c to 94.6 AUc. Commodity currencies are not in favour today. Against the euro we are at 59.7 euro cents and also down almost -1c. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.2 and down -20 bps.
The bitcoin price is now at US$17,396 and down -4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just +/- 2.9%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
85 Comments
Meanwhile, China's Covid response is careening off the rails. A sudden surge in Covid infections has stoked public anxiety and created huge demand for medical supplies, and even food delivery in Beijing. But pharmacies are running short on medicines and delivery drivers are falling sick, meaning many are now struggling to purchase daily necessities. Now estimates are that more than 1 mln people will die nationwide in this new situation
But China can build 6 hospitals by morning tea, can't they?
Trump’s trade policies with China starting to bite more than a bit as well perhaps, coupled with companies disengaging from production based in China. All that plus covid largely untamed. As pointed out in the column, a small percentage point extrapolates to a large number when applied to the mass population in the like of China.
I think it would be less Trump's policies than the effects of COVID. The shut down of the supply chains, especially shipping bulk cargoes and containers has really rammed home the vulnerabilities of the globalisation aspects of the modern economies. While there are some strongly positive aspects such as lifting the wealth and living standards of many third world countries, the requirement is predicated on the assumption that world leaders and governments all operate on similar principles of honour, integrity and freedom despite some fairly obvious clues that is not the case. In an increasingly fraught world many multinational companies are coming to realise that they cannot be certain their supply chain are secure as politics trumps greed.
On the other hand some of those leaders may come to realise that power and control can be a fleeting and ephemeral thing to hold onto.
It’s times like this, history is full of it, that a nation that is besieged internally, might seek to strike externally to divert its population’s attention elsewhere? Note recently, another sticks and bricks skirmish on the Indian border.
Yep, but Putin's driven an important lesson home where a three day plan to subjugate a country has led to a meat grinder which will economically destroy the country, turn a significant portion of the population against the leadership as they squander the nations youth and manhood in a meat grinder to feed an egotistical megalomaniac's political dream, not to mention turning the country into an international pariah which no one will trust for generations to come.
I hope the Chinese are as smart as they claim to be and leave Taiwan alone. Hungary and Turkey also need to be cognisant of the impacts.
Added; and the Indian and Chinese armies get to practice their martial arts training. Those skirmishes, and recent news indicates there are a number of them, are interesting as by agreement the two sides a kept unarmed to minimise the risk of escalation. But that doesn't stop at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese being killed in them.
Yes an extreme miscalculation but the upshot of that too is Russia being hugely weakened to China’s advantage. Economically, militarily and potentially territorially. Russia needs China one hell of a lot more than vice versa.
Exactly, it doesn't make sense for lots of reasons but if it keeps the regime in power then that's enough reason for it to happen.
Still unlikely but most likely escalation would be limited capture of Kinmen and maybe Matsu islands. That wouldn't change the dynamic much so could be tolerable but would give Beijing something to brag about for a few decades.
Although even that is risky, might set off something wider, and possibly China might still not do it successfully. Refer to the last Battle of Kinmen.
It's neither. It's due to the end of globalization, the end of an era where the US was the world's policeman and enabled free trade around the globe. End of one era, begging of another. Nothing to do with Trump, was happening regardless.
i don't think the roll back was happening before COVID was it? The US was still trying to bully people in trade agreements and so on. And then there was COVID.....
Of course it was happening. The reason - the US has been loosing the ability to maintain global security for some years. Call it bullying if you like, but their military might made globalisation possible - the ability to transport unhindered around the globe with no risk. Unhindered supply chains to everywhere created the economies of today.
This is now hanging by a thread.
It is hanging by a thread, but because when COVID hit and people stopped buying, factories locked down and the shipping companies laid up many of their ships, the global supply chains collapsed. they could not be just switched on at the flick of a switch. I suspect the shipping companies expected the crisis to last longer than it did, plus they tried to profiteer from it. All that demonstrated the weakness's of long, and especially international supply chains.
I don't disagree that the US has been losing the ability to ensure global security for a while. But right up to COVID it was all still functioning more or less as planned. Politics sat above it all, but it was still working. The collapse of the supply chains rammed home much of the world's, and especially the US's vulnerability to them. Trump's rhetoric didn't help, but he did start many companies thinking along those lines.
The US is least vulnerable. It is more self-contained than any country in the World. A market in itself. It needs no one.
The US maintained a global security order which in turn guaranteed security of global trade. It's over - we are not going back to normal. Time to prepare for change, not kid yourself that the amazingly near perfect period of the last 60-80 years was to be permanent.
have to agree there. But the consequences will be significant. How it will settle down in the end is anybody's guess, but i can envisage several variations.
Concentrated clusters of likeminded countries largely trading amongst themselves and protecting their own supply chains.
Murray, get over the Covid. It kills nobody, never has and never will. Just a great excuse for governments to control the masses through excessive money creation. Paid to fear!
Today's Trade Secrets: the natsec nasty. A WTO panel says the US can't use national security as excuse to restrict steel imports from troublemakers like, um, Norway. Quite right, but the US will do it anyway. Thus multilateralism dies a little bit more. Link
They don't have any good options now. Multiple Chinese people I know have it now, we can expect some serious amount of deaths. But it might be their least worst option now, given that they still should have some immunity from being vaccinated, even if the vaccine isn't the best.
The big issue will be the hit on their hospitals/pharmacies which will be panic buying from heaps of people, even those that aren't sick. While I have been saying they should open up, a staged opening would have been better. And the people would have been happy if they had illustrated the pathway of opening to the people, rather than just change policy overnight. Would have given them more time to respond well. Instead they swing from all to nothing, yet another way to bungle their response.
Weird that both China and America have done COVID so poorly. Seems like the bigger the country, the worse it will be for you.
China has really become a basket case. They have really become their own worst enemy over recent years.
Pity as there is lots of potential in the people and the country.
It's not nearly as basket casey as we are led to believe by Western media, who only concentrates on the bad. It just has its own unique problems, much like many other countries it seems. For instance you could easily consider NZ a basket case considering our ongoing housing crisis and price crash.
It's a basket case, demographics will ensure that. Theer popn will half by 2050 if not sooner. Too many oldies, not enough youngies and no immigration to counter it.
Same thing they have said about Japan... for going on 30 years. Remember automation is relatively new to China and real automation is just starting to hit the ground now, which flips the script on the classic economic doctrine of always needing an increasing number of workers. They may find a lower population with highly automated factories and services is exactly what is needed for economies in the next century.
The real fun will be for the virus. The opportunities for mutation will be epic.
Covid is seriously on the rise in New Zealand as well.
As for China, what are the actual evaluations on their vaccines? Seems to me they can be very capable at many things, and fast on turnaround.
Amazing is'nt it, thousands of cases a week, 35 deaths last week, hospitals still over whelmed and stretched, as we did nothing to increase capacity when we could of, threw the money into the housing system. Go back a year, or two, we locked country down tight at the sight of one or two cases, it was front news story etc etc..Now hardly a peep, nothing to see here.
Need to cast more than a stone at our media. These figures as you say in the not too distant past, would have been screaming headlines here. In a similar example of inconsistent and selectively presented coverage, remember how the dire situation in Fiji was front paged and then delta arrived in NZ. Well that must have fixed Fiji’s problem because overnight, it was scarcely heard of again.
Nothing to see here that benefits the pharma/media industry, move along. "The increase in deaths in the June 2022 year (9.7 percent) was higher than the average annual increase over the previous decade (1.4 percent)." Most weeks this year have seen record deaths which can't be explained by StatsNZ "aging population" excuse.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-e…
https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
Being the most widely used COVID-19 vaccine in the world, there is plenty of data on the SinoVac vaccine and it's efficacy. It's not hard to find, it's just that people prefer to jump straight on the "China bad" bandwagon instead of actually looking.
Makes us feel better about ourselves, and saves us from having to think too much.
Yeah long story short: it offers decent levels of protection for the Alpha/Delta variants, less on the Omicron. Not as good as an mRNA one like the Pfizer one, but a lot better than nothing.
But with all vaccines, efficacy wanes over times, which is why we need boosters. If they had actually approved the Pfizer vaccine when it was going through the process of approval there and rolled it out, they would be probably the most protected people in the world. Instead they wanted to develop their own mRNA vaccine! It's currently being tested on people in Indonesia (which also sounds dodgy), but looks like its getting good results too. However too little, too late, might be the problem with this one.
The vax will just get added to the annual flu jab, its a no brainer for those that have.....well no brains.
Nasdaq is puking and drops through that monthly support line it was trying to hold, Tech hates higher interest rates.
One days data only, part of the drop this week relates to Musk selling off 3.5bn of Tesla holdings. Down 10 percent. Is he also exiting Bitcoin
This morning Greg Smith from Devon Funds reported a small nudge for the NZX and said "Fingers crossed for a Santa rally" 👍
About interest rates the US 10 year T-bills rate is down again
A pretty bearish column in the Herald this morning. Lots of doubt over likely earnings for many companies. A few performers who might do OK or even quite well were highlighted.
I am still pretty bearish on shares.
ATM A2 Milk Company recovering?
A2Milk buy their own shares instead of paying a dividend.
When that's over, who will be left as the buyer of what will be seen as overcapitalised stock?
(PS: As we know, that practices was banned for 60 years after '29, as it was a major driver of The Crash; companies ramping their own stock. But, no. We thought we knew better and could handle the process with modern disclosure and hedging techniques. And look where we are! Spookily '29 isn't that far away, again)
Fonterra should copy that :) am not sure that many companies on the NZX buy their own shares, fletcher is one?
There is so much we should pretty much outlaw that accentuates boom/bust cycles its not funny. Stock buybacks are the tip of a large iceberg, including most futures trading, shorting, derivatives...
HouseMouse | 16th Dec 22, 8:10am
Lots of doubt over likely earnings for many companies.... I am still pretty bearish on shares
Have you stopped KS contributions HM
Elon's purchase of Twitter costing him big time...garage sale to raise cash.
I know some on this site don't hold zerohedge in high regard, but I thought this re yesterday's GDP might amuse:
New Zealand Q3 GDP jumped 2.0% q-o-q vs. 0.9% expected, taking the y-o-y rate up to 6.0% vs. 5.5% consensus. Yes, it’s a small place, and one might joke the overshoot was because a visiting coach party spent more in the gift shop than expected. However, that kind of data print will clearly keep the RBNZ hiking ahead.
Worth a read for the bit about Australia and the analysis of the FOMC most dovish vs. most hawkish members predicted rates out to 2025 which imply real positive interest rates of 1.25% over the long term.
That's Michael Every of Rabobank. His commentary is often quite tongue-in-cheek, pretty funny.
it's an interesting comment if only from the perspective of just how insignificant other countries consider us economically. Is there an opportunity in there somewhere?
Yes a let’s say, continental business colleague ventured something like - NZ from far, far away regards the world through a pair of binoculars, held back to front.
Another interesting perspective, but can be interpreted several ways. Is he saying we allow our isolation to hobble us? I wouldn't disagree, but how much of that can we influence?
If the rest of the world see us as too small to matter, then why do they react so much to us?
He also said that NZ & NZrs need to jump out of their own shadow. This is way back in the eighties. At the time I took him to mean mainly two points with the binoculars quip. Firstly NZ can’t see much of the world, isolates itself resultantly, becomes subjective and underestimates the rest of the world accordingly. Secondly, the other way round, NZ overestimates what world thinks of NZ. You could describe it as the manifestation of something of an inferiority complex. Hence the never ending tedium of “world leading” appearing in our press over the most trivial of factors along with the repetitive, punching above our weight. The thing is if you are so good about something, just let the fact of that do the talking, results speak for themselves.
"Firstly NZ can’t see much of the world, isolates itself resultantly" Blinded too much by the glare from our halo?
But they are very good points. I think we make too many excuses for not doing stuff. For not being bold enough to support development of industry. Even on this site there are many who decry things as too expensive or too hard, to quickly. But worst of all are our politicians. A good example was when the new locos and wagons were sourced from China rather than being built locally. Something like that builds and maintains expertise and creates a lot more opportunities. But short sighted politicians and business leaders are too interested in the short term dollar.
Agreed. NZ has so much to be proud of without needing to blare it from the ramparts. Our great Olympians, Snell, Halberg , Loader for example lately Carrington shone brilliantly through their modesty. Our fabulous Black Ferns could give the ABs a few pointers on modesty and team achievement over individual fame. Our military without doubt punched well above its weight. Lost many books in the EQs but somewhere I read that NZ had the most, or near to most, military casualties per capita in WW2. Great fighting soldiers, seamen, air crew not to mention the back up nurses, intelligence an on and on.
A nation of gladiators. Just what the world needs.
Size isn't the same as economic prowess.
Qatar has a $180b economy: a small petrostate considered a subservient state of Saudi for much of its short history.
Recently, Saudi called on the Arab states to fully blockade Qatar and then dropped the entire charade a few years later is a reflection of the changing economics and geopolitics of the Middle East/Arab world and beyond.
Is that because Qatar can be used as a gateway to those other countries? Besides Qatar is not quite as geographically isolated as NZ is. (culturally is another question)
I note that Saudi is now promoting tourism for itself, which until recently they utterly refused to contemplate. They couldn't be seen to allow the corrupt, decadent, infidels in. Betraying Islam and the prophet. Time will tell as to how well that goes?
I often fall into blaming our economic issues on geographical isolation as do others on this site. But then it strikes me that somehow our distance from the rest of the world was less of an economic challenge in our very successful decades until the 1960s, as it is today in the age of information.
Also, I'd rather remain geographically isolated over being literally stuck between Saudi and Iran. Dubai tried positioning themselves as a gateway into the region but is nothing more than an overpriced replica of the West only appealing to shoppers, car-maniacs and transiters.
Have to agree there too. Theocratic countries, no matter the faith, are generally not good places to spend much time.
Iran may be looking at a significant change in the not too distant future though.
The distance was well offset by being the mother country's farm. Then they joined the EU and we weren't special any more.
Whilst Zero Hedge is US centric it does show the fundamental drivers of change which may be uncomfortable news but far more informative than the biased drivel spewed out by NZ MSM. NZ is different but as a trading nation currency and primary product values have major impacts as does the economic health of our trading partners on NZ prosperity so interpreting comments in Zero Hedge to NZ s situation together with our reaction to changes is a way that prediction of effects is more likely to be closer to reality.
Upper NI moisture map still very green and blue while those in the south and east looking more normal. God save the farmers, because this govt won't
Yesterday I heard of the new Heartlanz party, having electorate MPs only, standing next year in rural seats
Hawkes Bay here, very frustrating time for us as the abnormally high rainfall is preventing us from making hay. We were all set to go until an equipment failure, now we've got rain forecast right out past Christmas. It's nice not seeing brown on the hills this time of year around us but we're on the flat and getting rid of the water is more of a concern for us. Good problem to have, of course.
Good luck. Does the extra grass growth mean you will make more feed when the sun finally eventually shines
We're just a small operation and this will (was going to) be our first attempt at haymaking, normally we lease out for cropping over Summer but we're taking a couple of down years to do some upgrades to fencing, drainage, and riparian planting, so we've continued grazing through. If I put you wrong I know there's a few more experienced farmers who will no doubt correct any misinformation. Apologies in advance.
We're definitely not short on grass growth, the grass is almost at fence height right now. The problem comes when the grass gets too old. Once the grass drops its seed it loses nutrients, and the remaining stalks provide less nourishment for stock. If it's bad enough it may only be good as ground cover in vineyards. The flip side is the seed goes back onto the land, and we (hopefully) have more grass next year. We're teetering on the point of the seed heads opening up right now, hopefully the rain slows this down. Of course, the rain also prevents mowing the grass for hay.
Since last cropping season was also a bad one due to rain we missed the opportunity to switch to a perennial grass when re-sowing since the crop came out late, and had to go with Moata ryegrass, which is hardy and establishes quickly but is an annual grass. This means we can only guarantee grass this year, with a moderate likelihood of a second growth next year. After that the returns diminish rapidly.
So our options are to oversow with a perennial grass when the time is right, or move back into cropping. We prefer to alternate between crops and grazing as it hopefully helps avoid rapid depletion of specific soil mineral content, but as it stands we're looking at a couple of years of minimal to no income. Fortunately this is a side job for me, and income from my main job allows me to cover the loss. Just not forever.
As a kicker, last season's crop was crushed and turned back in due to labour shortages and lack of shipping options, although this also means minerals get returned to the land. Before anyone fumes, the cropper is a very large company and had to do this on many plots, but still picked enough to supply local needy families. It was simply a case of not enough resources to handle it all.
I wish to subscribe to Hay Facts
Certainly, as long as you can accept the title may be Hay Alternative Truths.
Does this cover crop circles?
Only the alien-made ones.
Yep, Napier feels more like Auckland these past few weeks with rain on and off for, well, weeks. It's warm, but it's a little muggy which really isn't the norm in Hawkes Bay. The cherry and berry growers are screaming - cherry season has been terrible this year with some growers entire crop lost and even those who have cherries seeing a much smaller quantity of - not particularly great quality - fruit.
We picked up some boysenberries from a local orchard last week. The quality was...variable.
Pretty awful for those growers
The late frost in early October affected waikato blueberry growers just when the buds were out. The severity meant the choppers had no effect. It would be heartbreaking, and then probably install frost covers at no small cost after the damage is done
Yes and lots of urban customers dont appreciate just how risky primary production can be
You might make a fortune one year but can lose it all the next - and even with no income you still need to incur costs preparing for the following year which you hope will be ok
hail storm weather forecasts can be bloody stressful
180mm of rain so far this week since midnight Sunday, its been bad for this time of the year, Don't think I have seen anything starting with a 2 on my weather station as yet.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in China. My advice is to simply view it as a common cold and "soldier on". What other choice is there really?
I hear ingesting some bits of ground up endangered animals can help
3 years international experience and the largest beauracracy on earth, should be a doddle.
Cake or Death?
Exacerbated by trading in the dollar. Japan's trade deficit rose to over 2tn yen in November as higher costs for oil and a weak yen combined to push imports sharply higher. It was the 16th straight month of deficits and a record high for the month of November. Link
Clown show continues and Germany keeps winning: Germany has spent $500bn equivalent on bailouts and other policies to prop up the country's energy markets since the start of the Ukraine war. There is an admission they will need even more. Link
J-Pow is going to cause a serious recession - are you ready?
"It will take substantially more evidence to have confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward," said Powell. That's because the FOMC doesn't understand what inflation even is. Evidence all over the place since at least June. Utter clueless. https://youtube.com/watch?v=JT3hZM Link
Yes the storm clouds have been gathering for some time but so many fail to see them or ignore them - politicians and Economists.
Actually the charts have US inflation falling so expect a pivot in 3 to 6 months from now if the current trend continues.
Interesting Aussie media is carrying articles on Negitive Equity but Sydney / Melbourne drops are only about HALF of Auckland / Wellington drops with more to come. I suspect even Granny Herald will run some over the holiday season.
Haha the Fed and Inflation, its all very Transa-Permanent Inflation
Nominal values increase in inflationary years. Have you got a hedge
Can always rely on Zero Hedge to lead the shock news flash!
"The trigger from both the US and EU is that policy makers have indicated interest rates may have to go much higher before the inflation battle is won."
The Perfect Recipe for 10% Interest Rates Next Year, Guaranteed !
Absolutely correct but unsure what 0.02 basis points really means - next to nothing in my opinion so just a misleading comment.
It makes one think that maybe 10% is not "guaranteed".
Also that .02% is just one week of the five. It is you that is being misleading...
It's more like 0.6% drop!!
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/30-year-mortgage-rates/
Christine Lagarde used to claim that the Federal Reserve had a bigger inflation problem than the European Central Bank. Now the ECB chief admits the eurozone may be in a bigger mess. The ECB, which began raising rates later than its US counterpart, could be faced with a further bout of inflation. Lagarde said there were “reasons to believe” price pressures in Europe would surge in early 2023. The implication for monetary policy is that interest rates here have much further to climb....Dashing hopes that the ECB could stop its rate rises soon, she said: “We are not slowing down. We are in for the long game.” (FT.)
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.