Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news central banks are not yet done raising rates to quell inflation.
But first up today we can report a satisfactory dairy auction. Prices rose +3.2% in USD at this mornings event on an overall basis with +3.8% rise for the dominant WMP product. Butter rose +6.6% and cheddar cheese was up +2.3%. SMP dragged however, unchanged. In NZD, the gain was magnified by the lower exchange rate, up a full +5.0%. This will be a relief as it comes after four poor or weak results, and is in fact the best result since early September 2022.
In the US, the slow but steady slide in retail sales gains continues, with same-store sales up only +4.3% last week from a year ago, and probably not keeping up with inflation.
You can see the trade consequences in the Logistics Managers Index (LMI). Growth is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory levels, inventory costs, warehousing utilisation, warehousing prices, transportation capacity, and transportation utilisation. But warehousing capacity and transportation prices are contracting. None of these levels are a special problem yet, but they are going in a tougher direction.
The American December trade deficit in both goods and services came in about what was expected, which was slightly worse that the November result. Still these deficits are still quite small in relation to the size of their economy even if they are at record nominal levels and make headlines. That is, the -US$948 bln deficit is about -3.8% of GDP. For New Zealand that same level is -5.0% and we don't have the advantage of having a reserve currency.
The US Fed boss was among a set of officials out commenting on the strong US jobs report, essentially saying they have more work to do to rein in inflation even if the 'disinflation' process has started.
Average cash earnings in Japan jumped +4.8% in December from a year ago, rising at the fastest pace since January 1997 and increasing for the twelfth straight month. A surge in special payments during the period helped fuel this jump that has rarely been above +2% since 1997. So far this surge hasn't encouraged the Japanese to spend more; household spending fell -1.3% in December.
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate another +25 bps to 3.35% and said it sees more hikes ahead. They said the path to achieving a soft landing for the Aussie economy remains narrow. Most observers are now planning of a 4% cash rate in Australia by mid-year. They were not prepared for such a hawkish RBA stance.
Meanwhile banks will raise their mortgage rates and because this market is essentially on floating rates, the increase will flow through immediately and the stories about mortgage pain will grow. To ease payment pain, NAB subsidiary U-Bank is now offering 35 year loans. (Almost no-one stays with one loan over their lifetime, but a 35 year term is out there, ensuring most payments you make on a loan that long are interest.) First home buyer borrowing is now at a five year low in Australia.
Australia posted a +AU$12.2 bln trade surplus in December in goods and services, extending its recent strong run, but even at that elevated level it was their 'smallest' in four months. Still exports were up a massive +21.7% from the same month a year ago, and imports were up +10.8% on the same basis. All this means they ended 2022 with a massive +AU$138 bln trade surplus, or +5.8% of GDP, and +13% higher than in 2021. (In 2021 it was +5.5% of GDP.)
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.62% and down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -81 bps. But their 1-5 curve is less inverted at -105 bps. However, their 30 day-10yr curve is a lot less inverted at -91 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +10 bps at 3.64%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.91%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.12% and up +16 bps.
Wall Street is ending its Tuesday session little-changed on the S&P500. Overnight, European markets were bookended by Frankfurt down -0.2% and London up +0.4%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Tuesday session unchanged. However, Hong Kong recovered a minor +0.4%. Shanghai ended up +0.3% yesterday. The ASX200 ended down -0.6% yesterday and the NZX50 was down -0.6% yesterday.
The price of gold will open today at US$1876/oz and up +US$9 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today up +US$3 at US$77/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has recovered somewhat and is now at 63.2 USc and up almost +½c from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar however we are lower at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 58.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.5 and unchanged from yesterday.
The bitcoin price is now at US$22,980 and very little-changed from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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100 Comments
How long have UST rates been inverted now? Where's the recession that usually follows...?
I am starting to think that the inverted "rule" may be wrong.
Here's my take on it:
Inversion occurs because the market thinks the central bank are going to raise rates to combat inflation. Short term rates go up but long term rates not so much as the rate increases are expected to be temporary. When central banks increase rates it slows the economy; that doesn't necessarily mean recession, but central banks have a history of hiking too fast and too long. So whether it causes recession is dependent on whether they hike too fast or too long.
Inversion is just a signal that a central bank tightening cycle is on the way IMO.
Exactly. Inversion just means short rates are higher than long rates. The central bank influences short rates not long rates, so when the central bank pushes steep hikes on short term rates, inversion is the inevitable consequence.
This time it's different, huh? Have a look at the graph attached and zoom out. From the time it inverts, there is usually a decent lag before the recession hits.
It's on the way, masked by low unemployment except for high income growth sectors like IT.
The rapid growth in inventory in stores is a sign that people aren't spending. More importantly deterioration like this is accelerating.
Remember these stories are published every day so the change might not be obvious. Over the next 3-6 months the NZ consumer economy is going to go splat.
Inversion to rational people is when market expects rates to go lower, which is why demand for USTs actually goes up. The reason why rates are going lower is the same for why dealers would hoard USTs even if those are expensive on their balance sheets. Link
The swap market was one of the easiest ways you could see the Fed had no idea what it was doing in '07-'09, that everything it did do wasn't working nor had a prayer, and better than that why (balance sheet & collateral constrained Euro$ dealers). True then, true now. Link
Tokyo - I sincerly hope you are correct and that the current gaggle of beehive buglers end up like like on the windscreen as timing for such a result is perfect. I am cognisent of an old saying - The market can remain higher than you can remain solvent - so far this is true which is confounding many and there is an 18 month gap between a policy change and its effects being seen so unsure if the flys that hit the windscreen wil be Red or Blue, just hope no Yellow ones and plenty of green ones.
Aw dur!... It's following!
I bet the NZ govt politically would appreciate NZ going ditto with 0.25% next OCR next 22nd? Will the RBNZ be accomodating or will they do what has to be done. That is another 0.75%. My guess is a compromise, 0.50%.
Straight after the floods I wondered if they might pause, or do 0.25. But I now think 0.5 is most likely.
Floods are inflationary, no?
Moe construction/council/insurance jobs to do, more building materials to buy.
I am quite convinced that it will be a 50 bps increase. Either a 25bps or a 75bps increase will rock the boat and potentially impact current swaps. I suspect that the RBNZ is not unhappy with the current swap rates.
Globablly data is still strong, RBA was very hawkish, I think RBNZ goes 50. I also think that they want to be well done way before the election.
Do you think current events from RBNZ is coincidental ORR planned?
Looks like everyone here is predicting 0.5%. Some good points and I agree it will be that.
Yep, unless there is another unexpected event of some severity before then. Can’t count that out in today’s ultra-volatile world.
Hopefully that event isn’t another severe storm hitting the upper North Island early next week. A nasty ‘one two combination’ could give the RBNZ more food for thought.
The far end of the curve has some big moves to make if data does not roll over in US
35 year mortgages. Why not 40 or 50?
People are living longer, plus there is a property ponzi to sustain!
That kind of 'whole working life' commitment would need to come with significant reforms in how mortgages can be repaid, fixing terms, break fee reform etc. The market will deliver options that locks in profit for longer, but we are unlikely to see competition to the extent paying mortgages down quicker gets easier or cheaper for people who just happen to born at the wrong time to be able to pay a mortgage and save for retirement.
Intervention is well overdue. Perhaps in the name of NZ's financial stability. If only we had some sort of body or institution who was charged with that kind of thing.
I'll have you know there was nothing easy about 22% interest rates and 3 mortgages at the age of 22. Sure we could have just saved for a few years and bought the house with cash, or at the very least got it down to 1 mortgage, but we were the "me me" generation that wanted everything now.
Alas, we soldiered on, bootstraps and all. If only you whippersnappers had the same worth ethic as we did.
Seriously can't tell if this is satire or not.
The writing is clear on the wall, getting and owning a house is far more out of reach on multiples compared to the 70-80s.
...only for losers who stuffed around at school, wasted their money, and had no gumption other than to fail!
And this government pays them to fail.
?? So all renters have failed...hmmm
Yip. By virtue that they are paying "wasted money" on rent.... How dumb is that!
I can understand transition renting for a short while but some people will never own because they are...
Dumb
Lazy..
on the take
...
When your rent equals a mortgage equivalent to the value of your rented house then WTF!....
Monique say your dumb!
If you have to move areas/ jobs to get a cheaper house then do it and get on the ladder!
If you have to retrain to earn more money then do it
But some are just dumb.
It's to easy to stay renting, have babies, stagnate in your only career level/ job and be subsidized forever.
No sympathy for people who complain about prices yet do nothing to improve their position in life.
Sure, Take your self inflicted punishment while waiting for more handouts!... But stop moaning
Perhaps all those renters we're just too busy learning how to form a coherent sentence.
So all renters are dole seeking/money wasting idiots? What a very stupid take.
No. Better than 50% of the population is what i would term just "averagely talented". They do not want, or cannot go to uni to get degrees (and there wouldn't be jobs for them if they did). These are the myths that the likes of JK tried to sell to the country around their "high tech" economy. They built a dream on too little basis. what is needed is opportunity for ordinary kids leaving school with none to average qualifications, but which pay reasonable wages and provides reasonable security. Some people don't realise their capability until after they have left school. Our government could build the environment for this to happen, but they just don't have the vision or understanding to even begin.
There are plenty of opportunities in the trades. Sure it is a bit boom or bust. The money is very good and with the opportunity of starting up your own business later in your career. They could even start at McDonalds, work their way to store manager, then move on to manage something better.
I wonder if the big problem is our attitude to education. So many NZ parents think education is optional based on the old days when it was. "I never went to uni and I turned out fine". Compared to say Asia where no education almost definitely leads to poverty and their parents push the kids real hard.
Your takes on practically everything are comically bad - obvious troll?
Those high interest rates were during periods of high inflation.
Real interest rate = Interest rate - inflation rate.
Inflation was sometimes so high that it was a real negative rate.
*sigh* House prices were going up faster than you could save. It was the same old 'buy now and let inflation whittle away your debt' game as it always has been, just played out at triple speed.
Who could save .?
Ffs increase your warning capacity and stop moaning.
Control the controllables!
It's like ramraiders... If they put as much effort and risk into honest work as they do crime they would be millionaires
That’s some pretty binary thinking there Hemi.
I don’t think people fit into 2 categories = dumb and not dumb
Hemi certainly fits into one of those two catagories...
Nzdan
Your repeated anti-boomer comments are making you coming across that you are really bitter and twisted . . . that 6.5% mortgage payment on your upmarket home must really be hurting big, big time.
You really do seem filled with bitter envy . . . no matter that you continually boast you purchased your home at a bargain price from a distressed landlord with an a*sehole tenant and then selling at an inflated profit by ripping off some gullible FHB.
Get a balance in life mate . . . bitter envy just make you more bitter.
It's actually a 4.95% mortgage, fixed for another 3 years. A DTI of around 3 x household income, there's no pain in this household.
Yes we did well on our sale, although it's the slumlord that got screwed over not the FHB. 2/3rds of our gain was gifted by the landlord, the other 1/3rd was market inflation. The landlord sold for 8% more than they paid in 2007, they could have easily waited and sold for much higher.
Don't mistake my comments for bitterness or resentment. Let's just say you're an easy bait.
Nzdan
Dont make “comments for bitterness or resentment” then the alternative is you have a really shallow life.
Either way you need to seriously look at yourself mate.
I wouldn't say my life is shallow, or filled with bitterness or resentment.
Remember, it is you who is getting upset over flippant comments from somebody over the internet who you have never met.
But I'll take your advice, thanks.
Go the boomers. The backbone of NZ.
NZ Dan, look at the likes for the anti NZDan posts, read the room, and get into reality.
Your jealousy is screaming at us!
Agree with you p8, very excessive ad-hom and anger towards earlier gens. But he denies it has anything to do with his now much bigger mortgage. Maybe it is the 4 hours per day commuting.
Nzdan is proud to boast he "screwed over" someone. Its legal and above board so I am kind of fine with that. What he fails to see is that he did the best he could with what he had at the time. And yet he still snaps at anyone else who thought or did similarly
Remember when Nzdans nemesis was The Man.
I wouldn't say light hearted mocking could be construed as excessive ad-hom or anger, it's no different than the mocking the frivolousness of younger people. But I can understand if you feel attacked you might interpret it that way.
Those commuting days are long gone thanks to WFH. Of course I'm proud that I screwed over an older landlord who didn't know how much their property was worth, only selling for a few % higher than 2007 purchase price.
I wonder if said landlord might say that he screwed you over. Based on the way that you've previously described the condition and deferred maintenance
I haven't mentioned anything about deferred maintenance on here. The builders report came up squeaky clean, and the father in law who is a semi-retired builder saw no issues. We replaced a 15 year old hot water cylinder that had developed a very minor drip just prior to us selling but that was it.
The boomers rule!
Gee I've brought another house NZdan!
Read the room bro!..
Boomers made heaps of money cos they worked hard and smart
Labourcould tax the wealthy boomers but they know the wealthy keep the lights on. In the economy, just like the previous boomers and the future boomers.
If your not a boomer your a moaner!
what people fail to grasp is that allowing the max length of mortgages to grow leads to rising house prices.
people will pay to the max to get what they want. allow them to borrow more will flow directly into increased bottom line of what people will borrow.
same with deposit requirements. 20% to 5% guarantees house prices will increase x 4 times...
add to this the fixing for only 3% of the loan duration. that's good when interest rates drop. when they start rising you have issues.
at the end of the day you can't change the rules of the game and expect no consequences.
Exactly. Extending beyond 30 years is madness.
Instead of sending money offshore through even more interest rate hikes, maybe the same effect can be had by ruling that principal repayments be increased by the same cash amount. At least the poor buggers struggling with mortgage repayments would get something out of it in the long run.
Of course we needed some of the interest rates increases to dampen imported inflation.
Basically if you don't have a house by your 30 birthday then don't bother trying.
Bought mine at 38. Sold some investments, put savings into it etc. Before then I lived overseas and liked the flexibility.
Harder to do now. There won't be nice rentals in good areas within a few years.
Unless we spend money on maintenance there won’t be any roads left either
Why do we need roads, Elon's flying Tesla is just a couple of years away?
How do you think your food gets to your house right now...... rural is a mess
Know a number of people who did that. Did their OE for a number of years, earned good money, saved and invested it and when they returned home had enough to buy a house outright without needing a mortgage. Pretty sure it'd still work today?
That would still work of course. I loved it.
Te rentals in nice areas bit won't work these days.
Some cannot return as huge student loans gathering interest - will never be repaid.
They should have been paying that regularly like most borrowers do.
I find it funny that the policy of Uni fees and interest was brought in by those who had a free lunch.
Look at far more successful and happier countries policy's
Countries like Norway, Austria, Germany, Finland, and Sweden offer different types of free/low tuition schemes and tuition waivers for international students.
There is no better investment a country can make than education. We tend to spend the money on short term gain (Labour handouts or National tax cuts) rather than long term gain.
Why don't we have a high tax / high investment party in NZ?
Boomers would never vote for them..
Rubbish. the real reason is that our politicians have repeatedly proven they cannot be trusted to put the money where it is needed.
Besides education is proven to have significant economic benefits, as others have mentioned, so the government could just fully fund universities (MMT deficit funding) knowing that the economic return to the country would be worth it. But legacy socialist ideological myths stops them from doing this.
I think the real reason is that it's known that many degree-educated kiwis leave to NZ to work aboard, and many never return to live and pay taxes here again. Why should these people be subsidised by people who stay in NZ?
That's an interesting point. I think it speaks to the lack of opportunity in NZ and the ideologically driven declining living standards. While for many overseas, NZ's separation from the political turmoils of the world make it appear attractive, the internal environment driven mostly by our governments means it is much less so. We need to ditch the old socialist ideologies we seem to cling to, think about what 'democracy' actually means and make it happen.
This one can be solved by 'bonding' a degree to working in country for a period of time, then you get your 'free' degree. For example, if we want more GPs, train them, and place them where needed. Some may leave after their bonding period, some may grow roots and stay. Works for any field, teachers, nurses, anything really.
That's sort of what happens now, by writing off student loan interest for NZ-resident workers. You don't get the degree for free, but you can get it for half-price (inflation-adjusted).
I would say we need to look at the wider education first.
No point giving money awat at Tertiary level, when our reading, writing, and maths are abysmal at primary/secondary level.
Total student loan drawdowns per year are roughly $1.2b to $1.4b. Meanwhile we spend nearly $50b per year in welfare.
NZ Super was $13.7b in 2018. $17.8b in 2022. Forecast to be $19.5b this year. That growth alone is more than the entire student loans. To hell with anyone looking to upskill thereby paying more in tax, you need to pay for that privilege.
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2022-12/hyefu22-data-expense-…
Check total tax take. Pretty sure it's keeping up, easy.
Not sure that's a great situation either - as you're introducing buyers with capital that has been earned outside of NZ and pushes the price expectations for property past what local wages can realistically support.
If the de facto solution to buying a house in NZ is to leave NZ then it would suggests we've perhaps started reading the French instructions and making a best guess, rather than actually solving the problem we have. Yes, you have people who can buy mortgage-free, but you need people to be able to live, work and get ahead in NZ too.
"Le Grille!? What the hell is that?"
You used to be able to go to the UK and get paid the same but in pounds and bring it back 4 to 1. I think you'd be lucky to get paid much more than here these days (in NZD), and every year you are away the house prices have gone up more than you earned.
Everyone I know that stayed in Europe are in a far worse situation economically than those who didn't go or those who did 2 years then came back and saved and bought a house.
Nah Brah, easier still, just sleep in your car, claim the benefit, complain to press that your homeless and boom 💥 your in your transition motel until you new house is given to you at a subsidized rate that you pay for with your dole.
Take take take!
Cool as brah, free house, free money, and time to smoke pot, plenty of time to enhance income via govt approved crime sprees!
Too easy.
Its part of the reason the Scandinavians have such good statistics - they don't have many no hopers to support. Whether that is from good education, good values, good parenting, or just good luck, is hard to know.
"good education, good values, good parenting... (they can afford to have kids)"
I don't think poverty is the problem. I grew up in a family with very little money, but I was taught good values, encouraged to do well at school and encouraged to go to university. Poverty is the effect not the cause IMO.
The local Cambodian bakery owners work crazy hours to put their kids through the best schools. They are breaking the cycle of poverty through very hard work. But NZers don't seem to want to, and I doubt more government support would change that.
We read stories to our kids every single night. Some parents probably never do. The library is free.
Great post JJ and well done to you!
Lack of disenfranchised indigenous
That’s not quite accurate.
My brother was down from Sweden over summer, he was telling me all about the many layabouts that live there, both homegrown and imported. There are massive issues amongst the refugee communities there.
Welcome Hemi..doubt you are going to last too long here mate..
I think Hemi does make a good point though. I live in a very "multi cultural" (mainly Indian) area. Many people earn very little, they often do Uber at night to supplement their day job, house prices and rents are high. But there is no crime, no laziness, no state dependence, they are trying their best to get ahead. Their kids are great at school, there are never any issues at the school.
There is a fairly large section of NZ society that don't want to try and don't appreciate all the help the state provides them.
True but you have to understand that migrants from worse-off nations get to stay in NZ only if they showcase good skills, work hard and adhere to high character standards. Also, Asian countries have a cutthroat culture of merit without much in terms of social security, which speaks to their individualism as economic participants.
It's not about Asians. Don't bring race into it. It's about immigrants seeing a chance for a better life and working hard to achieve this for their children. That's what my ancestors did.
Although I partly agree, I also think cultural (tied to race) attributes *are* relevant.
I hope that anti-racism rant made you feel better.
The term Asian literally cannot encompass a single race, even a few. Even the 5 million or so people collectively called "Kiwis" are racially different from one another, let alone generalising the 4.7 billion Asians.
My comment was more about the culture of economic individualism in most Asian countries reinforced by a general lack of state-sponsored social security.
Gee your a winner....
Give up trying cos you failed before 30...
Why not "up your game" and work harder/smarter or improve your ability to earn more....
Mate, you labour supporters need to look up!.. not down!!!
And the logical answer for anyone who finds themselves in mortgage repayment crisis - extend the length of time to repay the debt. So expect much longer repayment terms to be offered across the board. 30 years will look as antiquated tomorrow as yesterdays' 25 years does today
Its no life, future brighter in Brisbane etc where you can get that mortgage paid off in 15 years. life is more then paying the Mortgage.
Thats why sellers here are finding few takers.
I have a feeling that situation won't last long in Brisbane (which is even more reason to move there now as house prices will probably go up).
Looks up life in Brissie....
Hey look they're complaining about the same issues as here.
Dont panic guys - Climate change experts say we have lots of natural disasters coming - they always create plenty of work
of which the Guvmint will fund lots so no one loses right
You are screwed if you are renting or still have a mortgage in your 60s.
There is even a name for it. Called the "income cliff"
There is a solution tho. Die at 60.
The January 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) found that lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans tightened further in Q4; in fact, as shown in the chart below, loan standards are approaching tights last seen during the covid crash and the global financial crisis: 45% of banks on net tightened lending standards for large and medium-market firms (vs. 39% on net in the previous quarter), while the number of banks tightening lending standards for small firms increased to 44% (vs. 32% on net in the previous quarter). 45% of banks on net widened spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds for large firms (vs. 30% on net in the previous quarter), while 33% on net widened spreads for small firms (vs. 25% on net in the previous quarter).
I own a business. We can tell long before the bean counters when something is out of kilter. We started battening down at the end of 2021.
Prepare to Be Bled Dry by a Decade of Stagflation
Our reliance on the endless expansion of credit, leverage and credit-asset bubbles will have its own high cost.
First sovereign casualty?:
Good Morning from #Germany where the housing market remains in a freeze. Mortgage lending was down 43% YoY in Dec, representing 4th neg record in a row since data records began in 2003. Compared w/peak of €32.3bn from March 2022, the decline is almost 60% https://barkowconsulting.com/baufi-neugesch Link
Bundesbank has noted residential real estate accounts for 80% of total fixed asset valuations in Germany - a country once noted for it's prodigious industrial output.
But first up today we can report a satisfactory dairy auction. Prices rose +3.2% in USD at this mornings event on an overall basis with +3.8% rise for the dominant WMP product. Some good news on the farming front.
Is the sheepmeat industry run by amateurs?
The collapse of lamb and mutton returns to the New Zealand farmer in the past two months has crushed any remaining confidence in our industry.
Regards this generation saving for retirement at least it now has ongoing regular Kiwi Saver inputs from both employee and employer, and that was not the case a generation ago in NZ, whereas in the US 30 year fixed rate mortgages (with no fees for cancellation fees) have been the norm for 3 generations as has been the equivalent of Kiwi Saver. Best of all with Kiwi Saver it means you no longer "must" buy a rental home to insure you have a golden years retirement nest egg. Taxation reforms to further reduce Auckland's share of investment home properties well below 40% for single family dwellings will have the most beneficial effect for young 1st FAMILY home buyers.
Haha. Well in the 1975 there was this thing introduced called the New Zealand Superannuation Act, which required compulsory superannuation contributions from both employers and employees (sound familiar?). That was swiftly voted away in 1977 when Muldoon took over.
This wooed many voters who were unhappy about their take-home pay being reduced to fund their retirement.
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/the-1970s/1974#:~:text=The%20Labour%2….
Yes, the fact I don't have to buy a rental property is the thing that is definitely stopping me from doing it.
Also, no one forced a gun to people's head and forced them to invest in property. They have to square up with whatever moral issues they may have triggered by forcing house prices out of reach of the common man, but don't act like they were under duress to put money into housing or else Helen or John would kill their dog.
WOuld love some informed feed back on this.
Is the 2022 Tax take (ie 31 March 2022 Financial Year) been boosted by the lockdown payments notably the Wage Subsidy and Resurgent payments left many businesses profitable and therefore a tax liability?
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