US economic sentiment rises; Canada jobs up; China extends massive new loans; Japan gets new central bank governor; UST 10yr 3.74%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 63.1 USc; TWI-5 = 70.6

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news global interest rates are on the move higher again.

First up in the US, the widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey jumped to a thirteen-month high and beating market forecasts. It is just another brick in the evidence pile that a recession is some ways off yet.

And across the border, the Canadian economy added +150,000 jobs in January, the most since February 2022 and much more than the market expectations of just a +15,000 increase. It is another impressive Canadian economic metric.

Meanwhile, the Canadian loan officer survey reported improved lending conditions. In fact their non-housing lending conditions turned positive for the first time since 2020 when monetary conditions were artificially loose.

In China, we got an indication of just how serious Beijing is to restart their economy after the pandemic. China's banks extended +¥4.9 tln in new yuan loans in January, well above market expectations of +¥4.0 tln and the largest amount of new loans ever. It is a monumental amount of new lending for just one month, +NZ$1.15 tln and for perspective for all of 2022, the approved a record +¥21.3 tln. In just January 2023 that raised that by almost a quarter! They aren't doing things by halves here and won't die wondering.

China also reported January inflation at a +2.1% rate although the rise from December was at an annualised rate exceeding +9%. Still, this was very much as markets expected. The producer price deflation however seems to be staying minor.

That is not the case in Japan where January producer prices came in +9.5% higher than a year ago (as expected), although in the December to January period they vanished.

And staying in Japan, they are about to get a new, and somewhat unexpected Governor of their central bank. The preferred candidate declined the promotion and the actual nominee has analysts searching for his likely policy preferences.

India released December industrial production data and that revealed a solid if 'modest' rise in the context of what they had in the rest of 2022.

There was a big set of key data released in the UK overnight, most of it grim.

With international tourism in full flow, sales and profitability look encouraging in Fiji for firms there. Fiji may get almost 1 mln short term visitors in 2023, their most ever.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.74% and up a heady +14 bps from this time yesterday, up +21 bps for the week. The UST 2-10 rate curve is much less inverted at -77 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is also much less inverted at -977 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is following, less inverted at -88 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up a massive +14 bps at 3.80%. The China Govt ten year bond is little-changed at 2.92%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.22% and up another +1 bp but up +26 bps for the week in a relentless drive higher.

Wall Street is ending its Friday session unchanged on the S&P500 but baking in a -1.0% drop for the week. Overnight, European markets were book-ended by London down -0.4% and Frankfurt down -1.4% for the day. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Friday session up +0.3% to limit the weekly dip to -0.3%. Hong Kong fell a massive -2.0% to end the week down -0.7% in a set of volatile sessions. Shanghai ended down -0.3% yesterday but up +0.5% for the week. The ASX200 ended down -0.8% yesterday and down -1.7% for the week. The NZX50 was up +0.5% yesterday for a minor +0.2% weekly rise.

The price of gold will open today at US$1863/oz and down another -US$10 from this time yesterday but little-changed for the week.

And oil prices start today up +US$2 at just under US$80/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$86/bbl. That is a net +US$6 rise for the week, although that only takes them back to week-before levels. Russia announced lower production levels.

The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps at just under 63.1 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6 and very little-changed for the whole week.

The bitcoin price is now at US$21,698 down -3.7% from this time yesterday and building the weekly loss to -8.1%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.5%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».