sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

US data mixed, Canada PPI modest; China cuts reserve ratio; Credit Suisse huddles; OECD sees improvement coming; commodity prices rise; UST 10yr 3.40%; gold up and oil down; NZ$1 = 62.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70.9

Business / news
US data mixed, Canada PPI modest; China cuts reserve ratio; Credit Suisse huddles; OECD sees improvement coming; commodity prices rise; UST 10yr 3.40%; gold up and oil down; NZ$1 = 62.7 USc; TWI-5 = 70.9
Riverside Markets, Christchurch
Riverside Market, Christchurch

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the stock market seems to be looking past the current turmoil, but the bond market can't keep its eyes off the current risks. Oil prices see demand falling sharply, but the OECD thinks the global policy settings are on the right track for the current economic situation. Meanwhile, bitcoin is surging. There is something for everyone in today's data.

US data released overnight was a touch softer than expected with industrial production slipping slightly in February and the University of Michigan sentiment survey for March coming in a little weaker than expected. But at least inflation expectations retreated in this survey.

With over 5000 banks, the US has always looked backward in terms of its payments system. Companies and people still use checks (cheques) a lot and 'float' is still a thing there. But they are getting closer to a modern payments system with the launch of FedNow, which will allow 'instant' transfer of funds between bank accounts - like we have had here for essentially since the 1970s (remember Databank?). It's been a real anomaly for the American banking system. (Watch out though; it will probably just become another culture-war battleground for 'conservatives'.)

In Canada producer prices fell in February, the seventh dip in the past ten months. They are now only +1.4% higher than year-ago levels and may be a key reason the Bank of Canada skipped a rate increase at its review last week.

In China, they have cut their reserve ratio again to induce even more lending. The cut it by -25 bps, the first reduction this year. For its biggest banks it is now 10.75% and its lowest in sixteen years. For smaller institutions it is down to about 7.6%. Rating agencies are probably still nervous about where Chinese banks are at present.

China also said their fiscal revenues fell -1.2% in the first two months of 2023 from a year earlier. Of note is that local governments are finding fewer buyers for land, an important source of 'income' for them as the housing development markets stay in the doldrums.

China is brutal when it changes direction; just ask bond traders. Suddenly and unexpectedly, regulators cut off market data for their US$21 tln bond market on the basis that providers of quotation details weren't 'permitted' properly. Suddenly bond traders were operating blind. Things are returning to a sort-of-normal now.

Meanwhile, China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury paper by -17% over the past year. Other countries are too. But to be fair, foreign holders of American debt have always been a minority.

Singaporean exports fell -8% in February from January, much more than anticipated. Year to date they are down -16%.

In Switzerland, Credit Suisse is huddling, looking for a way forward after the Swiss national bank supported them with big funding, but their cross-town rival UBS shunned any idea of a merger.

The OECD has raised the expansion prospects for major economies from the trim they made a few months ago. This improvement is because they see inflation easing now. But the improvement will be muted because interest rates will keep risks high. However, higher interest rates to squash inflation is the right medicine, they say.

Meanwhile the prices of some core commodities are rising again, like iron ore, and steel. But coal is continuing its steep retracement. And copper is going nowhere.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.40% and down -17 bps from this time yesterday. But the UST 2-10 rate curve is sharply less inverted at -47 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is however more inverted at -89 bps. But their 30 day-10yr curve is little-changed at -57 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -1 bp to 3.38%. The China Govt ten year bond is still at 2.88%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.43%, bucking the trend and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago however it was at 4.50% so on net it actually hasn't moved much compared to the UST 10yr which has dropped -31 bps.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is ending its Friday session back down -1.0% but heading for a weekly gain of +2.2%. Overnight European markets all fell about -1.2%. Yesterday Tokyo closed up +1.2% to limit their weekly loss to -2.0%. Hong Kong rose +1.6% to tip their weekly gain up to +0.6%. And Shanghai rose +0.7% which was all they got for a weekly gain. The ASX200 ended its Friday session up +0.4% on the day limiting its weekly fall to -2.1%.  The NZX50 closed up another +0.2% but despite that ended the week essentially unchanged.

The price of gold will open today at US$1975/oz and up a very sharp +US$61 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$111 or +6.0% in a week.

And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just on US$67/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is however down -US$2 and now just on US$73/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77 and US$82.50 so today's level is -12% lower than a week ago.

The Kiwi dollar is up +1c against the USD, and now at 62.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +¾c at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up up +¾c at 58.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at up to 70.9 with an +80 bps surge. A week ago it was at 70.1.

The bitcoin price is much firmer today, now at US$26,545 and up a sharp +7.0% from this time yesterday. That is up a third in a week and the first time over NZ$40,000 since June 2022. And volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/-4.7%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

88 Comments

How to risk losing 10 billion dollars in a day - Deposit 30 billion into a stressed bank on a Thursday and watch the share price drop by 1/3 on a Friday. First Republic, of course.

Do we have any idea what's headed towards us? Obviously not. But lower interest rates isn't on any sensible radar. More of what is failing so spectacularly in front of our eyes isn't the answer.

Now. Who wants to be long any leveraged asset this weekend? (PS: NZ$/Gold up another fifty bucks on yesterday's all-time high)

Up
5

Think you're confusing share price with safety of deposits.  

Up
3

How much will the deposits be worth if the share price goes to zero; the bank does a SVB over the weekend? (Approaching down another 20% after hours I see = $18.68). "Whatever it costs", depending on who is saying what about 'safety' at the time.

(NB: That's why I emphasised, or tried to, that it was Risk to Deposits put in, not equity taken up)

Up
1

New paradigm.  Equity and deposit values are no longer correlated.  You've seen that with SVB.

Up
1

Gold is up NZD 100 last 24 hours. Gold is money, everything else is credit.

Up
8

Bitcoin is also money! It is no ones liability.

Up
1

"Bitcoin is also money"

Is it though?....certainly some believe so but equally many do not. if it is not an acceptable medium of exchange  and is uncollateralised then is it money?....Id suggest not.

Up
3

Anything can be money if two parties want it to be. Buttons, turnips, you name it. 

Up
2

Yup. Willing buyer, willing seller. No problem. Just establish a conversion factor for whatever is being exchanged. The only rule is confidence has to be had in the values of whatever is being exchanged.

Up
0

True...however that assumes both parties have a choice whether to transact....taxation is not a choice (for all but a few it would appear).

Anything 'can' be money.....anything however is 'not' money.

Up
0

Sure it's a choice. You can go operate in a market that's not taxed. It's just smaller, less secure, and usually a bit of a nightmare to live in. 

Up
1

"China is brutal when it changes direction; just ask bond traders. Suddenly and unexpectedly, regulators cut off market data for their US$21 tln bond market on the basis that providers of quotation details weren't 'permitted' properly. Suddely bond traders were operating blind. Things are returning to a sort-of-normal now."

They are not operating blind. They are just using WeChat now. LOL.

Up
2

Multiple Banks Curb Trading With Credit Suisse As Deposit Run Continues Despite SNB Rescue

Markets Have Been Warning Us About SVB for Months

“MR. KOHN. As is typical in a financial crisis or panic, people have fled toward liquidity and safety in Treasury bills and overnight lending, and the normal arbitrage that happens across markets just isn’t happening. It’s great that the markets seem to be getting better, but if they continue to malfunction or if it gets worse again, I think there’s a serious problem.”

Up
4

It is a corrupt, many new laundering entity that should be allowed to fail.

Up
1

I've said it before and I'll keep saying it. One of the most serious warning signs you'll see is a China RRR cut. Global monetary warning. Link

Up
3

Over 5000 banks. Whew. The community bank is alive and well in the US it seems. Would be great to have an equivalent here I think where local enterprises and administrations could access funds locally from the locals. One downside I see in NZ is the low level corruption we experience in local government where cronyism and shopping contract tender prices has been the order of the day for a long time. Lack of professionalism in the regions has held back a lot of potential competition from tender processes that would have driven more efficiencies and kept council rates in check.

Up
2

We did. They were the Trustee Savings banks TSB, ASB and the Trust Bank being the remainders.  Barring TSB, they were sold to the big 4 with the Commerce Commission big tick.  And we had the building societies United, Countrywide, Southern Cross etc...

Up
4

I had forgotten about that. I wonder what the reasoning of the Commerce Commission was to allow these takeovers to happen? Maybe a lack of capitalisation in such small markets?

Up
0

Well recall United, late 80s,  experienced a run on them and ceased operating. Can’t recall which bank mopped up the bits & pieces left though.

Up
1

Countrywide bought united bank in the 90's. I think National Bank bought Countrywide and ANZ bought National Bank around 2012. I also remember st george bank. You could join it through pacnsave at the time.

Up
2

Completely disagree with your comments on local government corruption. New Zealand consistently comes out as being one of the least corrupt countries in the world.

From what I can see it is "professional" tender processes that result in inefficiencies. The need to go through these processes for anything and everything adds huge cost and inefficiency to delivery and actually ends up concentrating the contracts in fewer hands. It's hard for companies with no existing track record to break into local government as they score lower on tender evaluations.

This is of course all in the name of transparency because people keep bashing public service and keep trotting out lies about local government being corrupt. It isn't and if officers were trusted to just get on and do they jobs they have been asked to do we would get more better outcomes delivered more efficiently.  The vast majority of people who work in local government are honest and just want to do a good job. I would say it would be better to let them get on with it and accept that now and then a bad egg will get through. 

Up
8

On the Transparency International index. These constructs are designed by Western values. Completely ignores institutional corruption. 

Up
6

The value being "you can't use money to get your way out of everything".

The countries down the bottom get to have institutional corruption AND corruption at every corner of society.

It's not a "my kaka don't stink at all" index.

Up
3

Hanlons razor:  "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Up
3

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.40% and down -17 bps from this time yesterday. But the UST 2-10 rate curve is sharply less inverted at -47 bps. Bull Steepener.

Up
1

Credit Suisse is puddling.  There, fixed it.

Up
0

THE FED NEGLECTS to mention that the banks offering #FedNow, the new 24/7/365 payment service this July, will see increased speed of deposits moving—therefore NECESSITATING that the banks will need to hold more *cash* to avoid SVB-type bank runs.

https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1636696089809002497?s=20

 

Caitlin Long runs Custodia bank in the states. She has been trying to get access to the Fed for over 2 years now and was recently DENIED because she wanted to just hold cash and be 108% collateralised. 

Have a look through her Twitter, she is all over the banking situation in the states and how screwed it is. 

Up
4

Lyn Alden:

So @CaitlinLong_of Custodia Bank warned regulators about the risk of specific bank runs months ago. Meanwhile, her bank applied for Fed access and wanted to have 108% of customer deposits in reserve (able to withstand a full bank run) and the Fed wouldn't give them access.

A world of social media, wire transfers, and software APIs requires higher bank liquidity than a world of paper checks and banknotes, but neither banks nor regulators have kept up.

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1636828131297247241?s=20

 

Banks used to have as low as 3% of deposits available in cash. Even today at 8%, is that sufficient? The world changes. And FedNow will further accelerate the ability to move deposits in July. Meanwhile, the Fed has been draining cash reserves from the banking system.

https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1636828132798808104?s=20

Up
3

The banks will need to hold more bank reserves in their Fed accounts. Bank reserves are not cash - they are only used for settling transactions between banks (or with the Fed). 

Up
1

Hey David, you forgot to mention that Bitcoin is up 21% for the week? 

Up
2

Factions in the Biden administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve were responsible for scuttling crypto-oriented Custodia Bank’s efforts to obtain a master account from the central bank, CEO Caitlin Long claimed Tuesday

Up
2

Hey David, you forgot to mention that Bitcoin is up 21% for the week? 

To be honest, it's hard to keep up with that kind of price action. But old ratty is doing what it was intended to do in terms of being a lifeboat from counterparty risk and the fiat madness.  

Up
5

Hah, swap one form of madness with a new form of insanity. 

Up
5

Bitcoin is only going up because the U.S. government is bailing out Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank who were deep into cryptocurrency.

Up
1

Bitcoin is only going up because the U.S. government is bailing out Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank who were deep into cryptocurrency.

Huh? What does that mean? That BTC is a flight to safety from govt intervention? 

I think you're scrambling to fit a narrative about something you don't understand. You're demonstrating normie thinking:

"How can Bitcoin and the crypto markets in general rally sharply after all the bad things that happened in 2022? Didn’t people learn Bitcoin and those associated with it are scumbags? Aren’t people afraid of the narrative that Bitcoin caused the failure of large banks, and almost consumed the US banking system?"

Up
1

No. I suspect the value of any cryptocurrency will fluctuate depending on the perceived risks and confidence in where it's value should be. There is now less perceived risk in holding Bitcoin now, so it's value is going up again. 

Up
0

Everybody needs to listen to Yellen floundering about how they decide who gets a bail out and who doesnt. 

Absolutely mind blowing level of incompetence:

https://twitter.com/SeidlerCorp/status/1636518949872451584?s=20

Up
9

I see where Janet Yellen has clarified the governments position on depositors guarantees for all depositors by saying they will only guarantee all depositors in the future if the banking system is threatened. Damn. I must say I feel disappointed as I briefly and naively thought that what I thought was the cornerstone of the banking system being the depositors funds would be protected from corruption and/or incompetence. Idiot moi.

Up
4

if there is contagion "they" don't have enough money to bail out depositors. No one does.

Up
1

Xi is having some meet and greet with his fellow communist leader in moscow this week.

I wonder what could happen if they take X hostage, and then created an avatar

Up
0

Megalomaniac Putin is dumb enough to think he could carry out that plan and run China as a puppet govt

What's more possible is China wanting to be pre-eminent and seen as world leader to replace America. Stiching a deal for Russia to leave Ukraine. That move could be face saving for the failing Russian war effort as well 

Up
2

Since signing their accord prior to the winter olympics, Russia has considerably weakened itself militarily, economically and societally. China has thus been strengthened relatively and cannot now be anything, but the senior player. A bit reminiscent of how Hitler came to overtake and outmuscle Mussolini. Just maybe,  Xi is thinking enough now is more than enough. It is impossible to see Ukraine surrendering anymore than Russia now being able to overrun and subjugate the entirety of Ukraine. China requires to have confidence in its vast import of food. Ukraine’s production features strongly historically in that trade. But having said that what in heaven’s name would be a viable compromise to end the conflict. Ukraine will not give up any territory and likely will demand the return of the Crimean peninsular. Russia will not be forced to withdraw to its original border, well not under its present regime and there, in that status, the solution may actually lie.

Up
2

The doors are closing on Putin as the ICC, intnl criminal court has issued Putins arrest warrant.

Wouldn't it be good if Xi could deliver the summons.

Up
0

Possibly though a bit of a squeeze militarily on Russia’s eastern  borders might have some impact. If China wants expansion, reclaiming Mongolia for example, has been given a good precedent by Putin himself.

Up
0

Putin has too much twisted imperial arrogance and pride to bow to any request from Xi.

Let’s not forget that this is a marriage of convenience. Hatred and historic tensions run deep between Russia and China.

Up
3

The price of gold will open today at US$1975/oz and up a very sharp +US$61 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$111 or +6.0% in a week.

Little brother silver in Kiwi pesos up approx 8% for the week. For those with the good fortune to have exposure, we appear to be entering times where the silver price could  be explosive.   

Up
1

The Fed's "assets" increased by $300 billion in the past week. 

This is not free market or even capitalism.

If developing nations want $300 billion, they have to sell their sovereignty to the IMF and the World Bank.

Up
4

It feels very much like it's all coming apart at the seams. Paris on social fire and half the World under another heavy rain cloud.

Gold on a charge; Crypto likewise. UBS being frog marched towards Credit Suisse, as the US banks were towards First Republic. And none of it looks like it working.

Hands up anyone left who thinks % rates are going to fall into the face of all this. And if they do, let's have some guesses at where the CPI rockets off to.

 

Up
8

Gold on a charge; Crypto likewise. UBS being frog marched towards Credit Suisse, as the US banks were towards First Republic. And none of it looks like it working.

"Crypto" is not on a charge. BTC is. It's important to make the distinction. 

Hands up anyone left who thinks % rates are going to fall into the face of all this. And if they do, let's have some guesses at where the CPI rockets off to.

I wonder if people actually thought about living within their means for a while. Or going without. 

Up
5

Interest rates could indeed fall....that dosnt necessarily mean that lending will increase.

Hands up who thinks they can pick an asset class not mired in risk in the current environment?

Up
5

It would reduce servicing and free up discretionary income for those with a high mortgage. 

The best idea I've heard for controlling spending is increase everyone's minimum kiwisaver contributions. Ours is what, 3 percent. In Oz it's 8 percent. Not confirmed. This increases our savings rate and keeps more funds in the country.

Up
4

That does sound like a sensible idea.

Up
3

Merci Zachary 

Up
0

To ensure it had impact they'd have to stop people taking contribution holidays, which I believe are open to anyone.

Up
0

Hands up who thinks they can pick an asset class not mired in risk in the current environment?

The world is awash with money. It has to sit somewhere in the form of debt obligations. Unless of course the debt is extinguished (paid down). 

Up
1

The reason why Bitcoin is rising?

Up
0

Its rising because a core group of believers is anxiously waiting for some sort of negative economic downturn that'll take bitcoin to the moon.

But of course as money and commodities get more scarce, wealth with leave bitcoin to chase things like food, water and shelter. 

Up
1

Its rising because a core group of believers is anxiously waiting for some sort of negative economic downturn that'll take bitcoin to the moon.

Huh? What happened to the rat poison in March 2020 as the "negative economic downturn" kicked into gear with the global stock market crash? 

Did it go to the moon? No it didn't. It dropped 50% in a single day. 

Turn the lights on before you make silly comments about BTC and its behavior.  

Up
1

Is there anything to say about Bitcoin that isn't silly?

Like saying even the average person should have 1% of their net in BTC.

Hey, what's a shape, that has one less side than a square? Step right up folks and you too can sit at the bottom (preferably below me though).

Up
5

Like saying even the average person should have 1% of their net in BTC.

Yes. The typical investor, particularly boomers, will be sold on to a 60/40 portfolio. Granny Herald, Sam Stubbs fodder.

Why? Because that's what they have been told. Herd behavior. 

1% in BTC is an allocation to an asymmetric bet that doesn't typically exist in other mainstream asset classes. The kids understand this far better than the boomers in particular. 

Up
2

It doesn't exist in other asset classes because most other asset classes aren't the equivalent of an Instant Kiwi ticket, i.e. a crapshoot.

Actually maybe someone would do better investing 1% in instant Kiwi tickets.

Up
1

Actually maybe someone would do better investing 1% in instant Kiwi tickets.

Yes. Instant Kiwi tickets have an 'expected value' and so does the old rat poison.  

How do you calculate the expected value of these tix and BTC? 

I have a good idea of how I would approach this in the case of BTC. 

Up
0

You can remain willfully ignorant for longer than we can be bothered trying to teach you mate. Several of us have provided numerous resources over the last 4 years at least that you could have put a little bit of effort into reading. And then you might have actually learnt what Bitcoin is and why it is the most important discovery of our generation. 

But you know, HFSP :P 

Up
1

I haven't even been here for two years and no one's shared me any information that couldn't be classed as fan fiction.

I've been told I need to spend 10,000+ hours of reading and research to become an expert on this in order to understand and profit from it. You know what else I could do in 10,000hrs? Earn a million bucks or so.

Up
5

Ok.

What areas are you interested in? The economic, mathematical, environmental, or code side of things? 

Bitcoin encompasses so many different categories that there is something for everyone. I'm sure I can find some reading material that could explain some of your questions and spark your interest. 

I am happy to spend my time to provide them and help you learn if you are willing to put some effort in. 

Up
1

I know what bitcoin is, and I know it's not the discovery of a generation, because it's ownership structure looks exactly like a pyramid scheme. If you were genuinely going to make a new decentralised digital currency, you'd at least attempt some form of initial universal distribution, rather than start with the founder and early incumbents owning a grossly disproportionate amount of them, with new entrants owning smaller and smaller fractions of it. So we have a decentralised currency, with a highly centralised ownership. 

If someone invested 1% of their net worth in bitcoin and 100x'd their money, it'd only be at the detriment of successive entrants. Outside of that, investing 1% into anything is the equivalent of having a flutter, i.e. not actually investing. 

Up
6

https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/

 

https://danhedl.medium.com/bitcoins-distribution-was-fair-e2ef7bbbc892

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/why-bitcoin-fair-launch-is-important

 

There is no way possible to create a "Fair" launch of a currency. This means that there is someone in control of it, and it also means that because everyone gets the same amount, it is intrinsically worthless.

1% can be considered insurance, a sufficiently small enough part of your portfolio that you can forget about it, but with such an asymmetrical potential return profile that it could save your portfolio when government printed fiat currencies trend towards zero. 

Eg using the credit default swap rate on the USA (was 17 basis points at the time, now up at 38), taking a 20 year time period and dividing it by 21m Bitcoin, this would give each coin a price of of well over $125,000 per coin. As an insurance against just the USA defaulting. The kicker is you also get insurance on every other fiat currency for free.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-value-in-credit-default-swa…

Thats one mathematical approach for you. 

Up
1

There is no way possible to create a "Fair" launch of a currency. This means that there is someone in control of it, and it also means that because everyone gets the same amount, it is intrinsically worthless.

There is a person who is in control of it. They created it, and still hold many coins. It's an unjust system promoted to be the solution to another unjust system. 

Bitcoin magazine won't tell you that. Don't trust vested interest magazines for information. 

You'd get better bang for buck spending 1% on some whiskey and a trip to a place of ill repute. 

Up
0

Lol 🤣 When Bitcoin was launched it had no value Painter..basically free...

Bitcoin market cap flips tech giant Meta, widens gap on Visa

Despite a turbulent week for crypto following the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Bitcoin’s market cap has managed to flip that of tech giant Meta. On March 14, Bitcoin’s market cap reached $471.86 billion, surpassing Meta’s $469 billion, according to data from Companies Market Cap. The leading cryptocurrency climbed to the 11th spot among top assets by market cap, sitting behind electric vehicle maker Tesla. The market capitalization of Bitcoin has added over $190 billion in 2023, outperforming top Wall Street bank stocks, particularly as fears of a global banking crisis are rising.

Up
2

If you can back cost your time spent invested in this with your returns and you're crushing it, then more power to you. My suspicion is most people would think a minimum wage return is doing well, and the majority of people might as well work in a sweat shop.

Unless the real value in BTC is the sensation of aspirational wealth. Making lists of things you can buy one day. And why cant you, Crypto Times has an article of an early prophet piloting their mega yacht around Monaco for being smart and getting in early. If you all buy just a little, they could get one with a helipad.

By the time the average schmuck throwing in 1% gets a moonshot return these people would be god kings.

But apparently, there is no fairer way.

I try not to factor in speculative gains. Lower rate of return, but higher reliability. 

Up
2

So please enlighten me as to how we get off the fiat experiment we have been living in for the last 50 yeas? 

We can all see that it is broken, those closest to the money printer benefit at the cost of everyone who actually has to exchange their time or goods for the shitcoin fiat currencies. 

How would you make a new currency that requires no trust? 

Yes Satoshi launched the project, and kept it alive for the first few years while there was little interest or security for the network. He then stepped away.

Today he has absolutely no control over the network and the number of coins someone has has no relevance to how the system works. They can not change it or influence it in any way. With that note, you own your portion of the network, say 1 Bitcoin out of a hard capped 21m Btc, and NOONE can dilute your stake. Unlike fiat where you proportion of the entire amount is just watered down as they print more and more of it. And there is only one central node, the central bank, that actually knows how many there are. Non one else can verify that is true. I can and do verify how many total bitcoin are in existence by using an old lap top and running a node. I do not have to TRUST anyone at all, I can verify it for myself. 

And yes, the early purchasers will be rewarded for doing the research and getting some early. I am willing to bet people will look back 5-10 years from now and exclaim with awe that "He brought Bitcoin when it was only $20,000!". It is still very early, hence why it is such a great assymetrical bet. 

Bitcoin is digital scarcity, it can never be replicated or changed (without all members of the system agreeing to change). 

 

Reliability is just a factor of time. Hence why I always advise to have a minimum of a 4 year time horizon but ideally a 10 year buy and forget mindset. Eg current Bitcoin owners, about 100m. Current supply 19,321,863 (and yes this is exact and known by everyone). and is at a price of $27,000. 

Now ask yourself, do you think the number of people who might be interest in Bitcoin will increase or decrease in the future (remember that there are ~2b people who dont have access to banking services)? Now considering there are only 1.92m Bitcoin on exchanges, do some basic supply and demand maths.... and factor in the Bitcoins supply is inelastic (because of the difficulty adjustment meaning that no matter how many people try to mine it, the rate of supply stays the same) and tell me what happens to the price. That is what I call reliable. 

Up
0

So please enlighten me as to how we get off the fiat experiment we have been living in for the last 50 years?

We don't?

- fixed money supplies don't eliminate inflation

- if ownership is consolidated to a few, then control is possible

- dilution of your currency isn't as bad as dilution of your ability to earn it in the first place (that's what you really want to put your energy into)

- the 2 billion unbanked live in what's called informal economies. Most of their day to day life doesn't require money to navigate. Although I'd wager they'd take a USD over a BTC as it has more utility for them.

Fundamentally for me, it seems a non starter as the issues BTC is attempting to address aren't a significant enough problem for most people, and as usable money BTC is more cumbersome than what already exists.

It's a service at best, not a currency.

Up
0

Sorry but I can not deal with such blatant ignorance and first world thinking. 

https://www.amazon.com/Check-Your-Financial-Privilege-Gladstein/dp/B09V…

Up
0

Hard money....

Up
0

paid down or reapportioned.

Up
0

"Hands up anyone left who thinks % rates are going to fall into the face of all this"

You may not be able to see it bw, but I've got my hand firmly up, both of them actually!

Up
2

Also bw, go outside, take a deep breath and enjoy the beautiful day, it will do you a lot of good, lol.

Up
2

As a UBS client, I'm very happy they didn't consider a merger with CS.

Up
0

Might be time to start checking the gold at LME as well.

The London Metal Exchange has discovered bags of stones instead of the nickel that underpinned a small handful of its contracts at a warehouse in Rotterdam, per Bloomberg.

The amount of metal represents just 0.14% of live nickel inventories on the LME, worth about $1.3 million at current prices, per Bloomberg.

“LME warehouse warrants used to be the gold standard of warehouse warrants around the world, treated as a near-cash equivalent,” John MacNamara, chief executive officer of Carshalton Commodities

https://unusualwhales.com/news/the-london-metal-exchange-has-discovered…

Up
3

Not your keys, not your Nickel...

Up
1

Central Banks Should Press Ahead With Rate Rises Despite Bank Pains, Says OECD. Western central banks should keep raising interest rates to tame high inflation, a leading research body said on Friday, as fresh data showed wages in the eurozone rose at the fastest pace on record late last year.
The news underlines concerns about inflation persist despite market expectations that mounting strains in the banking system .

https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-banks-should-press-ahead-with-rate…

Up
0

Swiss regulators are encouraging UBS and Credit Suisse to merge but neither bank wanted to do so, one source said. The regulators do not have the power to force the merger,

Up
1

Bit of a cul de sac, isn’t. In American vernacular, perhaps better described as a blind canyon?

Up
0

Buffet will benefit from the bank bail-outs - financed by taxpayers. Goes to show it's important to have friends at the money printing department.

21% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio Is Invested In Just 5 Bank Stocks

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/14/warren-buffett-portfolio-inve…

Up
2

Rental ‘war’: Government under fire over leasing perks for landlords
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/rental-war-governme…

This helps explain why the number of rentals has dropped so fast. Despite fewer people coming in, fewer home sales and yet more homes being built. As for rents, only 10 percent of 3 bedroom renters are below $600 per week. There goes mums wages!

"The govt incentivises landlords to remove their home from the private rental pool... makes the number on social housing waiting list look better"

"I can claim all my mortgage interest if I allow my house to go into the social housing pool"

"Figures from MBIE say (since labour came in) from end of 2017 to January 2023, Rents have jumped by $175 per week nationally and $200 a week in Tauranga"

--

Up
2

‘Sold out in 3 minutes’: $500,000-$600,000 Northcote apartments snapped up
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sold-out-in-3-minutes-500000-600000…

Clickbait? 

Up
0

Yes because it happened in F'ing 2021 and it is at the very bottom where it is stated.

Anne Gibson really gets up my nerves. Very often reports on :"stories" where she has no base knowledge 

Up
1