Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we start the week after the long holiday weekend with all eyes still on inflation's challenge.
In the coming week, the spotlight will be taken by the US inflation rate, and their retail sales, followed by the FOMC Minutes. The Americans will also release updates on industrial production, producer prices, and Michigan consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, China will be releasing its March inflation rate (today) and trade data on Thursday. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea will be deciding on the course of monetary policy. Also, India, Brazil, and Russia are each set to publish CPI numbers.
Overnight the Americans released consumer inflation expectations survey results and they rose in March. Expected inflation for the year ahead in this NY Fed survey was up to 4.7%, rising from an almost 2-year low of 4.2% from the same survey in February. It was the first increase in five months. The Fed has more work to do.
American wholesale inventories were virtually unchanged in February from the same month a year ago in nominal terms. That is taking the top off its inventory:sales ratio quite quickly as sales values rise with inflationary pressure.
On Wall Street, we are going into an intense period of earnings releases and it is becoming clear that they may be as weak as -7%. Inflation is squeezing margins everywhere. Share prices may be being revalued as interest rates rise, but they may also get a compounding hit if earnings fall at the same time.
Japanese consumer confidence recovered in February and by much more than expected, although to be fair it is only a recovery from its 2022 lows and nowhere near back to pre-pandemic levels.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.42%, and little-changed. The UST 2-10 rate curve is still at -59 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now at -116 bps. And their 30 day-10yr curve is a little less at -105 bps. The Australian ten year bond is not trading at 3.18%. The China Govt ten year bond is still at 2.87%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is in abeyance at 3.97%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 opened lower but is clawing its way back to even near the end of its Monday trading session. European markets were all closed for Easter. Tokyo traded and ended its Monday up +0.4%. Hong Kong was closed for the holiday. But Shanghai was open and fell -0.4% yesterday. Of course both the ASX200 and NZX50 didn't trade yesterday.
The price of gold is at US$1988/oz and down -US$20 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$80/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is little-changed at just under US$84.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is almost -½c lower against the USD and now at 62.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are have dipped to 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped slightly too, now at 57.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 70.3 and down only -10 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price is sharply higher today, now at US$29,170 and up +4.4% from yesterday. But volatility over the past 24 hours has only been moderate at +/- 2.2%.
There was a lot of economic news released over the holiday weekend. If you missed that you can catch up here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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